EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXVII - Page 77
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
I would have used my town cache to push the lynch away from debears onto probably killing.. Still perfect victory. | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 26 2012 19:56 Dandel Ion wrote: Hm, I said that before I knew Sharrant was JK'd, when thrawn was the only one that claimed. But I still think that usually, it would be bad play to JK a mason in that situation. I guess it didn't matter since you can't JK yourself, but I think my logic is solid: Scum won't kill just 1/2 of the masons if there is still a JK/medic in the game. He will camp the confirmed town, forcing scum to shoot relatively blindly for the JK/medic instead of the confirmed town, all the while leaving a confirmed town in the game. Which would usually spell disaster for the scumteam, but the confirmed town this game was Sharky, so in the end, I guess it really didn't matter. But there was no real way for you to know sharky would be useless. I think your decision was wrong. It practically did not matter, because scum shot you (bad luck there), but it COULD have mattered and I stand by my opinion that you did not play your nightaction as well as you could have. Eh, as I said, not really applicable in THIS very game, but remember for the next time you roll JK  I think the problem with your argument is that I would be camping Sharrant anyway. Your argument would only be valid if there was a decent risk that the mason claim was false. If there was a decent risk, I agree confirming the mason claim by killing Sharrant would be bad. However, if you go back in the thread, you can see basically no one had doubts regarding the mason claim by the end of n1. Going by your argument, do you also think I should've pushed a Cubu (later Sharky) lynch d1? That would've guaranteed the outcome you want, a confirmed mason Sharrant that I could've protected. I was considering this briefly, but I thought the mason claim was likely enough to be legitimate in order for me to want to keep both in the game and I also felt confident I would be able to convince other players of this. If both are alive I can still guarantee the protection of Sharrant for as many nights I stay alive (which unfortunately turned out to be 0 :p). | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
On September 26 2012 13:42 Hapahauli wrote: Also, weed shouldn't make you angry o_O being high doesn't coming down does and when I drop f bombs it doesn't mean I'm mad. If I say fuck you thrawn that does not mean I'm mad at him. It means I'm trying to be friendly. Are we not allowed to say fuck? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On September 26 2012 21:26 kushm4sta wrote: being high doesn't coming down does and when I drop f bombs it doesn't mean I'm mad. If I say fuck you thrawn that does not mean I'm mad at him. It means I'm trying to be friendly. Are we not allowed to say fuck? Within reason, it's why I didn't warn you ^_^ I'm often somewhat... liberal with language myself Hapa is right though. You can put your behaviour down to weed, but games last a week and more, and you showed sustained behavioural differences between the two games. Take it or leave it  | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
everyone join next game | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 26 2012 20:41 Dandel Ion wrote: It was okay in THIS game, because there were no townier townies. I'm saying usually scum would avoid hitting just one of the masons (unless they have 2 KP to kill both or something), and if both masons are even approx. equally useful, there's no knowing which one will get hit. I'd have thought that's pretty logical, but apparantly not... Even so, I still have a 50% success rate protecting the "correct" mason (the mason about to get NKd), which is great. Even if I don't succeed, I end up in the situation you want: having one confirmed townie to protect for the rest of the game. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 26 2012 21:22 marvellosity wrote: no, pushing for a Cubu lynch would have been totally incorrect (it was suggested a few times in thread to my horror) I basically played all d1 not remembering I was JK. I think this idea was first suggested by thrawn and I went "ah, that might be a decent strategy if we have a JK... oh fuck, that's me". Anyway, given I was confident the claim was legitimate, I didn't give it too much thought. I was still close to JK thrawn, which in hindsight baffles my mind. I'm not even going to try to explain that thought process. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 26 2012 21:49 marvellosity wrote: why? thrawn doesn't seem like that much of an out there jail to make I think I severely overestimated my town read on thrawn, but maybe that's just me using the benefit of hindsight. My basic reasoning was this: If both thrawn and Sharrant are townies, I think scum will think they need to NK both of them at some point. They will start with thrawn because he's more active and a bigger threat. | ||
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iamperfection
United States9648 Posts
On September 26 2012 22:01 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I think I severely overestimated my town read on thrawn, but maybe that's just me using the benefit of hindsight. My basic reasoning was this: If both thrawn and Sharrant are townies, I think scum will think they need to NK both of them at some point. They will start with thrawn because he's more active and a bigger threat. he basically was the most pro town player. the 2nd part is just wifom. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
i think about NKs quite a lot in games, I just don't bring it to the thread usually | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 26 2012 22:04 iamperfection wrote: he basically was the most pro town player. the 2nd part is just wifom. Yes I agree, which is why I think protecting Sharrant was the best option. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
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iamperfection
United States9648 Posts
On September 26 2012 22:07 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: If you want wifom, I can post the math equation I used to determine that thrawn was the best JK. do it | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
1. Assumption: Scum will always NK thraw if town/town Both town: 70% thrawn scum, sharrant town: 25% thrawn town, sharrant scum: 5% Save thrawn success: 75% Save Sharrant success: 25% 2. Assumption: Scum will NK thrawn 67% if town/town, sharrant otherwise Both town: 70% thrawn scum, sharrant town: 25% thrawn town, sharrant scum: 5% Save thrawn success: 52% Save Sharrant success: 48% It's obvious that even under the most optimistic assumptions (case 1), I need to be close to 50% confident thrawn is town for him to be the best JK candidate. I think both the main assumption and me being 50% sure thrawn is town are false. However, I also need to consider how valuable thrawn and Sharrant are later in the game. If thrawn will be a better scum hunter, that gives some more weight behind the idea of JK him. I think these are more reasonable assumptions, but still pretty optimistic: 3. Assumption: Scum will NK thrawn 70% if town/town, sharrant otherwise Both town: 45% thrawn scum, sharrant town: 50% thrawn town, sharrant scum: 5% Save thrawn success: 36.5% Save Sharrant success: 63.5% As we can see I think a Sharrant JK will be successful almost twice as often. Thrawn needs to be one hell of a scum hunter to make up for that difference. In the end I decided against a thrawn JK not because I realized my assumptions sucked, but because 1) if I'm able to protect a confirmed townie until late game that'll give additional benefits (for example: limiting our lynching options through process of elimination) and 2) thrawn came under fire late n1, regardless if it was townies or scum attacking him it makes him a less likely NK target because scum can be setting up a later mislynch. EDIT: Save thrawn success = prob(thrawn = town and NK target) | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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