EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXVI - Page 36
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 09 2012 06:54 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Now to why I don't fully trust you. Early game you were very indecisive. The only case you had was the Killer case, but even that you didn't fully commit to. Now you claim imcasey is 99% townie and make confident statements about Killing, Stutters, drazak and vig reads. When I question some of those reads, you don't even respond. Why so confident now and why don't you answer those questions? It seems to fit scum strategy very well not to point too many fingers early game, just to push your agenda late game. Early game I was indecisive. Yes I was... while I hate saying this but it is my first game. I would obviously get more and more confident as I go while wrong some of the time we need to be decisive at this point in the game and it is getting easier and easier to see the patterns. Also why would I have been so confident of drazak as scum? I would have waited for now to be confident and try to separate the drazak lynch from myself. I am going to respond to the imcasey read in a while (need to get thoughts together in the light of stutters as most likely vig (he has breadcrumb and I doubt we are getting a counter claim) I am going to post what I wrote about who I thought was vig because I promised I would but it seems kinda pointless now. I would also like to note I completely forgot stutters existed in this case so that is where I was wrong. How can I and kush be so sure? Well we both think it is imcasey. Well for one I know it isn't me. This is a good start. I have such a strong town read on kush and he claims to not be it (seemed to not be it before he claimed requested it on someone else (kville before)) also xatalos wanted vig to kill kville. Killing is probably mafia and that leaves you and casey. You wouldn't have taken the shot. For one you didn't have the time to think about it and it doesn't seem like something you would do so I surmised it was casey. Turns out I completely missed the fact stutters was in the game, I feel so stupid. (the vig thing made everyone stupid though lets be honest...) But can you re-list the questions you had for me. (about anyone else I have your casey list) Also I was going to bring you up on something that I thought you didn't reply to (turns out I forgot to include it -_-) but I will ask you now. If stutters went too hard at killing to be a bus and he is almost positive town now, then doesn't your style seem rather bus like. For example the stutters killing was to... aggressive to be a bus however you say "good points" and you passively agree about killing time. You seem to passively agree about xatalos. You are only actively going at imcasey. It is really unlikely that you and imcasey are a scum team so my question is are you scum passively busing your two scum mates and betting because of that you can get a lynch on imcasey? Honestly at this point I have said it before and I will say it again. The game seems to be down to is imcasey scum or sonic. I am sure you can agree one of them must be town. (there is a slight chance xatalos is town but we can deal with this tomorrow game time) This is why the casey read is so important and I need to start working on that when I am not tired. I will probably need a massive post on this which is why I am only popping in at the moment when I am tired. (woke up early) But for now ##Vote Killing Time | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
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KillingTime
France101 Posts
This is all probably academic though as I still have no idea how I am meant to defend myself at this point against the case that I was "too indecisive and safe" in my play earlier to your satisfaction. As I said - I was quite indecisive, because I was town and didn't know who was mafia! I think it is very unlikely that I'll get jacob & kush to vote against me and assuming one of them is not mafia that is game.  I will try and stay up as close as possible to the deadline and answer any questions you have out of native optimism that we might not have lost... If the voting is not close I will probably vote for kush symbolically because I feel like he has maybe played a great mafia game. If there is a chance of saving me I'll vote for stutters (if there is a counter claim) or imcasey who is my second choice as mafia... his posts d2 were not great scum-hunting - they pointed out inconsistencies in people's play - but I don't think they were inconsistencies that actually made sense from the perspective of finding mafia. I think he was just doing the minimum to stay alive and add some confusion to the thread. | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
I think it is possibly a xatalos killing sonic team. But need to research it. If kush is mafia he probably deserves to win. However, if you and stutters are both town then the game is probably lost. I really want to see what stutters thinks because he is pretty much confirmed town. If I can prove imcasey innoccent then I would be fine voting for sonic but I would have to see what stutters thinks. (also sonic is safe with him being in both mafia teams if imcasey is town) Wait looking back that makes no sence though. If imcasey is innocent then he can't be in the scum team. Hmm... What do you think stutters, I am fairly sure about what I think about killing being scum however it would be good to hear a revised opinion. Also killing what was your scum team before the vig call and what do you think it is now. | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
What do you guys think killing, stutters kush, and xatalos. Sonic and imcasey feel free to chip in as well. | ||
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KillingTime
France101 Posts
But a stutters vig call (which I am inclined to believe because the breadcrumb is good and would make no sense for a mafia action as it would require guessing correctly both the target and that the vig was going to shoot) throws everything off. Since I said I would vote kush symbolically I have been thinking abit more about what the vig claim means. I don't think you are scum & so with me, you and stutters that leaves 4 players: sonic/imcasey/xatalos/kush. Rereading Sonics filter from the perspective of stutters being a confirmed townie makes me put in him that group - while I thought stutters was mafia his consistent attacks on stutters and partial defence of me made him seem town to me - but if stutters is also town I don't know his filter is very good at all from a town perspective At the moment I am not sure which 3 are the mafia and which is the townie - but in a sense that does not matter tonight because I doubt I can convince all of town to vote for Kush/Sonic tonight (although if someone can...) I would like to hear from you & stutters who you think is a better lynch out of Xatalos and imcasey. I think imcasey is better because Xatalos's recent posts this weekend have been quite balanced and they read to me like someone who doesn't know who the scum is trying to work it out - rather than scum trying to ensure that the lynch on me (which still looks pretty likley to happen) goes ahead. | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
Drazak was against kush but who was with and against him? I was undecided (although mostly against to my shame) because why would mafia hit such a high profile town (imo at the time) but he seemed scummy in motivation. However now we know he is town.... lets look at sonics, imcasey(if there is anything) xatalos and killings filters about it. Sonic was thinking drazaks case was bad and was saying kush was omgus-ing. Drazak was town. On September 07 2012 18:29 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I’ve been reading through the arguments against Kush but didn’t focus too much on it yesterday because I think it makes more sense to discuss it now. My reaction to reading through the exchange between Kush and drazark was that Kush went into a pretty heavy OMGUS-mode (wrt to those 4 posts he made in response). Is this what you find to be scummy, drazark? Or is there more to it that I have missed? Could you please condense your argument to what you believe to be the most valid points? Also xatalos was a huge defender of kreb and drazak both town. Kush has had a 100% miss rate (killings filter) Kreb said role claim sonic didn’t say to role claim would only help town (exception to a cop) if vig claimed and it did help. Sonic, Kush seems to be in cohorts. I know this might seem a bit much considering how strong I was on killing until recently. But this is after lynch theoretical. However I think with sonic being in both of my mafia groups I would be stupid not to think we should lynch him. While I thought he could be passive defending killing and xatalos he could also be not trying to draw attention to himself so late in the game. | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
 no seriously I want to know what stutters thinks though I will answer your question seriously in a minute though. | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 08 2012 10:35 kushm4sta wrote: Ok so according to kreb's logic post, either one of the mafia feuds was fake, or jacob or sonic or me are mafia. 4 town 3 mafia. That means there are a lot of mafia among us -.- If i had to guess at this point I would say xatalos, stutters and killingtime, and the fued between stutters and killing was manufactured. Also I think I might have to read sonic's poster closer. Everyone always just assumed he was town because his posts are consistently good though. But maybe that consistency come from a scumlike carefulness. We can still win but if we lynch wrong 1 day we lose. I'm pretty sure that's how it worked out. Also I assume we have a vig and they killed drazak. No idea why they didn't kill a lurker n1 though... Stutters/killing isn’t manufactured. Stutters is vig... | ||
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KillingTime
France101 Posts
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
So if he is scum he is scum with sonic and I am lynching the more certain one. If you don’t think killing is scum then well... there shouldn’t be much problem. (If there is bring it up) I know I am posting a huge amount just now but I want to get this right. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On September 09 2012 09:52 Stutters695 wrote: Sorry guys I've been out of town. Posting from my phone again since I have a free moment. I'm be back in full.tomorrow around 5 est. Anyway I'm the one shot big who took the terrible shot on Drazak. It was either mylo or lylo so I figured shooting to confirm myself and Drazak most recent posts before the end of night made me feel like he was the best shot. I'll try to check in before then but I'm pretty busy. The shot claim is in my post two before this (can't quote because I'm on my phone. You'll notice how I have sentences that are like this "word.2ndword" if you look at the post the first letter of each word before the . It spells I shot then the next time it occurs is Drazak. The ones after that were just, me trying to sell it (my phone does do this though which is where I got the idea) I guess everyone agrees that Stutters695 is confirmed town now. That breadcrumb is practically impossible to fake - and he wouldn't even gain almost anything by fakeclaiming at this point, especially compared to the risks. On September 09 2012 06:18 kushm4sta wrote: So the last 2 posts are by killing and xatalos. Both prime suspects. They both attack stutters, who is right now the safest target not including themselves. That seems pretty fishy to me. Stutters does not even try to defend himself. He talks about the current game situation then proceeds to attack stutters. Then xatalos comes in and says now he suspects stutters and not killing. @xatalos why don't you suspect killing now? Not why do you suspect stutters, but why don't you suspect killing? What part of his nonexistent defense convinced you? My suspicions against Stutters695 are obviously obsolete now. However, there are some things in KillingTime's latest posts that make me unsure if he actually is such a strong Mafia read... At least compared to how Stutters695 looked like before his Vigi claim. KillingTime's response to being accused so heavily wasn't really defensive or scared at all, more like honestly trying to help the thread forward. That's the feeling I got from it, anyway... He didn't seem afraid of being lynched at all, but instead trying to avoid the town's loss. Then there's this he posted after Stutters695's Vigi claim: On September 09 2012 17:11 KillingTime wrote: Xatalos's recent posts this weekend have been quite balanced and they read to me like someone who doesn't know who the scum is trying to work it out - rather than scum trying to ensure that the lynch on me (which still looks pretty likley to happen) goes ahead. What motivation would scum KillingTime have to post something like this? Maybe I'm biased, but unless we are both Mafia (which I know not to be true), it's dangerous to limit your options by giving town reads at this stage. On September 09 2012 16:45 JacobStrangelove wrote: Sonic is in both scum team variations. I actually think a lynch on him would be good. It's a can't miss scenario. Think about it. Killing has been sure on his lynchs in a way. While not badwagoning or voting people he doesn't think is scum. While I am still super suspicious of him because he has gone for people the crowd hasn’t and as I see it we can’t miss with a sonic lynch... maybe I am just doubting myself but look at it that way. can we miss with a sonic lynch? No what scum team could there be without sonic? killing xatalos and imcasey. Kush thinks imcasey is townish at least so do I. (like I said reasonings coming later) What do you guys think killing, stutters kush, and xatalos. Sonic and imcasey feel free to chip in as well. I don't really like complicated connection theories. There's no telling what Mafia might think or do, so it all comes down to WIFOM. One big mistake in my previous game as town was to rely on theories about possible Mafia teams... It's much, much harder to figure out a whole Mafia team than to figure out a single Mafia player. Once one Mafia has been found, it's a good time to start thinking about connections, but not now. Mafia could have planned everything to look like they're not connected at all or just partly connected - there's no end to the WIFOM! Lynching someone should be based on their own filter (at least until no other Mafia have been found), not somene else's filter. With that said, I think KillingTime and imcasey are the only decent lynch candidates we have for today. Sonic Death Monkey has been very active and nothing about him screams Mafia to me. Lynching him because of a WIFOMy connection theory just feels stupid, and I'm sure we'd be facepalming hard if he flipped town. It doesn't look like lynching imcasey would gather enough support, so I have to go with KillingTime. ##Vote KillingTime I'm returning to the military today, so I can't be online at the deadline. However, I should still be online for some hours at least. I think looking through imcasey's and Sonic Death Monkey's filters would be the best use of our of time at the moment. | ||
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KillingTime
France101 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
What is wrong with the killing, xatalos, sonic team? I think it's a plausible team and I will vote for them in that order right now. Sonic's filter does not seem scum to me, but there's no one else who it can be. And I dont trust poker players. | ||
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
Look if town doesn't get the sonic vote guess what happens. Killing is lynched, if you think he is mafia then it should't be a problem. | ||
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