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Exactly.
Kush - your question to the mod was established that Kreb could have been the vig and that therefore any claim couldn't be trusted. (Though I misinterpreted and thought you thought they had more than 1 shot) - You knew this then you make a post saying: There's nothing wrong with revealing him. I'm pretty certain it's iamcasey, although the vigi only having 1 shot makes me less certain.
!!there is no reason why vigi shouldn't roleclaim at this point.!!
I doubt mafia would risk a counterclaim and we could have a confirmed town.
This is the largest single failure of logic in this thread... the only reason I am not calling this a scumslip is that it is almost too blatant. What on earth were you trying to achieve with this second post?
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oh dear - you are right... should have refreshed before posting now I look like the idiot.
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@xatalos my drazak xatalos theories were obviously quite stupid and wrong. Yes. I suspect you less now and less the more I think about it. I mean all my suspicions were wrong and I suspected you... So my suspicion of you gives you some towncred by.extension of my retardation I guess
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Yup my reasoning was pretty stupid... Vig only roleclaim I'd we are about to lynch you I agree
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On September 08 2012 23:33 kushm4sta wrote:
@sonic kreb was a vanilla townie it said so when he was killed.
I think we should focus on 1 person. We have no certain mafia yet, so relying of associative cases, looking for the scumteam before the scum adds too much complexity, too many variables to our search.
I think kiLLing is the most scumlike person and the best lynch. Do people agree or not?
Oh fuck, I was being stupid. That means: Absolutely no vig claim and no discussion of the vig.
I think we should focus on at least a few different candidates. Let's hear others opinions though.
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We all seem to agree that KillingTime is scum.(and lynch target) If he isn't we are completely screwed and mafia has played a perfect game. I agree stutters is a little non commital with his lynch targets but so is sonic. Case below, while I don't completely think sonic is the target to go for I am going to pressure you for answers as we haven't done that as much.
I am having trouble wording my thoughts so I will have to get back to the imcasey case(in response to you) in a minute. How can I and kush be so sure? Well there was a large section here but it turns out we shouldn't talk about the vig... I have saved what I wrote though to either support what I think is a true roleclaim or question one that seems fake.
I am actually getting more and more suspicious of sonic. You are trying to raise a lot of doubts about casey for a day 4 5 lynch and you have a null read on me. How on earth after all this do you be neutral on me.
On September 08 2012 21:49 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Still, from the last days I'm leaning townie on Kush, scum on Xatalos (although Kreb's point that it's a null read has some merit), currently I'm pretty neutral on Jacob and imcasey is a total null read. Jacob, could you address my post from yesterday? I don't understand the imcasey = sure townie argument. I don't have a lot of time atm so I won't throw out random team reads. I will make sure to be back later tonight though.
In this post you basically list three null reads. (you say leaning scum on xatalos but you leave it open with the krebs point) But I just don’t understand how I can be a neutral read, I am 93 posts in on this thread. Not saying post count is an indication of town but I would have to be the freaking genius of the world to pull something like this off and not slip. Also your town read (obvious town read on kush) thinks I am town, kreb thought I was town, I was opposed to a kville lynch (who was town) and was going at killing all game (who seems most likely scum in the eyes of kush and I and now xatalos). Either I am mafia that looked at the other mafia players and went ehh who cares about them I’ma play for town or I am amazing, the other option of course is that I am town.
You are being very vague. Also you have a habit of not voting for your scum reads. For example (as pointed out by stutters who seems against you and killing.
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:Alright, a couple of thoughts. @Sonic Death MonkeyYou also say Show nested quote +The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I know you replied to this but it still stands that you voted for someone not your scum read.
Stutters could be busing Killing time however his case was put up when I was the only one even kind of on him and even then I was doubting myself (at the time) also what you are doing is more bus style play. You are seeing there is a good argument and saying yeah I see your points. Maybe you are both bussing him.
I mainly just want answers (simmilar thing to was I was doing to killing a while back) as we need everything we can get.
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I like xatalos more recent post. We must vote on strongest scum read. Killing or stutters basically. Imcasey we won't be able to consolidate on, while I think killing is a larger scum read we should look at stutters as well just incase. (but it would take a lot to convince me)
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Also keep in mind that sonic fancies himself a semi pro poker player, so if he was mafia he would try to be tricky. I still have a town read on him though from just reading through his filter.
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On September 08 2012 23:33 kushm4sta wrote:
@sonic kreb was a vanilla townie it said so when he was killed.
I think we should focus on 1 person. We have no certain mafia yet, so relying of associative cases, looking for the scumteam before the scum adds too much complexity, too many variables to our search.
I think kiLLing is the most scumlike person and the best lynch. Do people agree or not?
I'm not yet completely decided between KillingTime and Stutters695 (looks like an imcasey lynch isn't happening, so I'd narrow it down to these two currently). However, it looks like KillingTime is the general strongest scumread (especially by you and JacobStrangelove, who are the most active and townish posters around), so it would be easiest to consolidate every town vote on KillingTime instead of Stutters695. That doesn't mean we should just all vote for KillingTime and forget about it. There's still the small chance of him being town, and if that's the case, there are only two ways for us to win at this point:
A) KillingTime must start posting and convince everyone of his innocence
B) we must pressure other players to find Mafia slips, holes in logic... something that would indicate an even better Mafia read than KillingTime at the moment
If KillingTime is in fact town, option A is our best bet. Option B isn't looking very easy to achieve, but it's better than just voting for KillingTime and hoping for the best. Mainly I'm thinking about pressuring imcasey and Stutters695 to post more and help us determine the strongest Mafia read.
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imcasey and Stutters695, please return to the thread. What do you two think of lynching KillingTime? Are you on board? Why / why not?
KillingTime, unless something changes, you're going to be lynched. If you're actually town, it's crucial that you convince everyone of your own innocence. If you're Mafia, don't bother!
Sonic Death Monkey, are you on board with lynching KillingTime? Why / why not? In your latest post you were hesitant because lynching KillingTime would give "limited info", but please forget factors like that. Everything is decided with this lynch, so it has to hit Mafia. Besides, if we lynch KillingTime and he flips Mafia, it would give more info than with imcasey or Stutters695 flipping Mafia (at least KillingTime has been more active than imcasey or Stutters695...).
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Something tells me Xatalos hit his weekend. I agree with pretty much everything he has said so far. However it is night so I will sleep. Will be back in about 12 hours?
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to be lynched. If you're actually town, it's crucial that you convince everyone of your own innocence. If you're Mafia, don't bother!
Yes I agree, however I am currently trying to figure out how to do that. Mafia only needs 1 townie to vote against me in order to force mislynch me and win, which means is I need to convince all of town (so far my cases have failed to convince one person) or at least convince mafia that a bus is less risky than pushing for the win. I think stutters case against me is fair - but please whether you think what it actually proves is not that I am a mafia who knows who is town - but town who doesn't know who the Mafia is and isn't that good at scum hunting.
Unsurprisingly I think stutters is mafia and he is my best read)- he has made his case against me but if you look at things from my perspective he has actually contributed very little. Before that point he was high on several other people's suspicions and had contributed very little.
I think everyone agrees his day one play is awful - but going back I am amazed just how bad it was:
+ Show Spoiler + His schtick to start is that a low post count is not a sign of a mafia and that: If I was a scum I wouldn't put myself in a position to be lynched by posting once or twice than bouncing for a day when you guys make it so easy to hide without committing to anything. All I'd have to do is post a list of everyone and sheep on townish people and say well he hasn't posted a lot so I'm not sure (which is later exactly how he will accuse me of playing) Then he switches and low post counts and bouncing for the day is exactly what scum would be doing. why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here? unless Cubu comes back and posts some content I think he's our best lynch today.He's provided nothing.
Then there is essentially nothing until my case, at which point he posts a case about me being non-committal and weak - Before this point he has added nothing to the game until he is accused of being mafia.
At this point he becomes hyper defensive and answers a lot of questions with what look like good answers - but if you are me at this point in the game and know he is almost certainly scum - they don't look that great to me they explain some of his reasoning as if he was a townie -so what- they don't seriously attempt to atone for his play d1 and I know that his "top 2" scum reads are both town and one of them (kville) he has almost no work to do on it because of how terrible his play was. So after I gave him an easy out he can re-enter the thread and go back to not contributing anything except super obvious stuff about kville and a meaningless conversation w the late appearing kville when most euro players have gone to bed.
It seems that apart from jacob, who has been onandoff me all game - all of you only started to be suspicious of me after stutters case. Even if you are 90% sure I am mafia and you want to lynch me - you should be demanding more from stutters as well and asking why you are following the lead of a player who gave town nothing until he felt prodded by me.
Again, I need to convince all of town of this if we are not to lose tonight…. My plea is when you are trying to judge between us try to see the game from my perspective as town. Stutters posting is confident and gives town nothing. My posting has been hesitant and trying to contribute.
If Stutters and I are both town then mafia won this game along time ago because unless we both have damascene conversions to each others innocence mafia can just put their three votes with his/mine and win. This is my best attempt at showing you stutters from my perspective… other than trying to answer any questions you have I don't know what else I can do. I think jacob is town and one of the most suspicious of me, so I am obviously particularly interested in convincing him, as with his vote mafia don't even need anyone else.
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On September 09 2012 02:49 KillingTime wrote: Unsurprisingly I think stutters is mafia and he is my best read)- he has made his case against me but if you look at things from my perspective he has actually contributed very little. Before that point he was high on several other people's suspicions and had contributed very little. I think everyone agrees his day one play is awful - but going back I am amazed just how bad it was: + Show Spoiler + His schtick to start is that a low post count is not a sign of a mafia and that: If I was a scum I wouldn't put myself in a position to be lynched by posting once or twice than bouncing for a day when you guys make it so easy to hide without committing to anything. All I'd have to do is post a list of everyone and sheep on townish people and say well he hasn't posted a lot so I'm not sure (which is later exactly how he will accuse me of playing) Then he switches and low post counts and bouncing for the day is exactly what scum would be doing. why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here? unless Cubu comes back and posts some content I think he's our best lynch today.He's provided nothing. Then there is essentially nothing until my case, at which point he posts a case about me being non-committal and weak - Before this point he has added nothing to the game until he is accused of being mafia. At this point he becomes hyper defensive and answers a lot of questions with what look like good answers - but if you are me at this point in the game and know he is almost certainly scum - they don't look that great to me they explain some of his reasoning as if he was a townie -so what- they don't seriously attempt to atone for his play d1 and I know that his "top 2" scum reads are both town and one of them (kville) he has almost no work to do on it because of how terrible his play was. So after I gave him an easy out he can re-enter the thread and go back to not contributing anything except super obvious stuff about kville and a meaningless conversation w the late appearing kville when most euro players have gone to bed.
That's a good point about Stutters695's inconsistency. He started by claiming that Mafia wouldn't take the risk of hardcore lurking, but then proceeds to vote for both Cubu and kville based on their hardcore lurking... Weird holes in logic like that usually point to one direction: Mafia. Do you have anything to say about this, Stutters695?
I'm heavily considering lynching Stutters695 instead of KillingTime right now - although that would naturally require everyone to agree. What's also bothering me about Stutters695 is that even though he looks like a skilled player (constantly referencing metagames, guides, player histories etc.) he has basically only bandwagoned on Cubu and kville so far. He hasn't actually pushed the thread into any direction, only followed the flow and remained somewhat under the radar. He made a case against KillingTime but never committed to it in the least. I'd expect much, much more from a town Stutters695 after all those references to past games and such.
I'm going to sleep now. Hopefully Stutters695 has responded by tomorrow (that goes for imcasey and Sonic Death Monkey as well).
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So the last 2 posts are by killing and xatalos. Both prime suspects. They both attack stutters, who is right now the safest target not including themselves.
That seems pretty fishy to me.
Stutters does not even try to defend himself. He talks about the current game situation then proceeds to attack stutters.
Then xatalos comes in and says now he suspects stutters and not killing.
@xatalos why don't you suspect killing now?
Not why do you suspect stutters, but why don't you suspect killing?
What part of his nonexistent defense convinced you?
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ebwop killing does not even try to defend himself , not stutters
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On September 08 2012 23:57 JacobStrangelove wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2012 21:49 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Still, from the last days I'm leaning townie on Kush, scum on Xatalos (although Kreb's point that it's a null read has some merit), currently I'm pretty neutral on Jacob and imcasey is a total null read. Jacob, could you address my post from yesterday? I don't understand the imcasey = sure townie argument. I don't have a lot of time atm so I won't throw out random team reads. I will make sure to be back later tonight though. In this post you basically list three null reads. (you say leaning scum on xatalos but you leave it open with the krebs point) But I just don’t understand how I can be a neutral read, I am 93 posts in on this thread. Not saying post count is an indication of town but I would have to be the freaking genius of the world to pull something like this off and not slip. Also your town read (obvious town read on kush) thinks I am town, kreb thought I was town, I was opposed to a kville lynch (who was town) and was going at killing all game (who seems most likely scum in the eyes of kush and I and now xatalos). Either I am mafia that looked at the other mafia players and went ehh who cares about them I’ma play for town or I am amazing, the other option of course is that I am town.
Yeah, that post wasn't very clear. You could probably tell I was throwing out a lot of half finished thoughts earlier today. I got some time to clarify now though. The first paragraph (the one you didn't quote) was meant to explain the latest developments of my reads. That is, Stutters' answers to my questions gave him a decent amount of town points in my mind. The fact that I think that the Stutter vs Killing feud is unlikely to be fabricated automatically means this makes me more suspicious of Killing.
The second paragraph on the other hand (the one you quoted), was meant as a brief summary of my reads from earlier, that's why it opens with "from the last days". That's reads I haven't found a reason to change on d3. I've explained my reasoning on my Kush read so many times before, I don't think I need to do it again. Xatalos has been one of my long time suspects, but the post you quoted was made before he started making productive contributions on d3. Still haven't read those posts, will go back and do that as soon as I can. My read on imcasey is weak, he hasn't posted a lot at all. That's why I was asking questions about your read, hoping to start a discussion, but I still don't think you've responded (I might be wrong, if you've posted on d3 I might've missed it). My reasoning for why I'm not sold on your imcasey = sure townie is clearly spelled out though, the ball's on your court.
You raise an interesting question, my take on you. That hasn't been explained. I went after you on d2 after your filter coming back very non-committal. I never really had you as a prime suspect but at that point we needed to put some heat back on active posters after a d1 of lurker hunting. Anyway, in the end you gave quite satisfactory answers and your long-ass n2 post had some solid analysis. Also, and like you said, you've made a lot of post and they've been long. In my experience spazzy scum players tends not to make too many long-winded posts. If they do, you'll usually be able to find a good case looking through their posts.
Now to why I don't fully trust you. Early game you were very indecisive. The only case you had was the Killer case, but even that you didn't fully commit to. Now you claim imcasey is 99% townie and make confident statements about Killing, Stutters, drazak and vig reads. When I question some of those reads, you don't even respond. Why so confident now and why don't you answer those questions? It seems to fit scum strategy very well not to point too many fingers early game, just to push your agenda late game.
On September 08 2012 23:57 JacobStrangelove wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:Alright, a couple of thoughts. @Sonic Death MonkeyYou also say The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.) I know you replied to this but it still stands that you voted for someone not your scum read. Stutters could be busing Killing time however his case was put up when I was the only one even kind of on him and even then I was doubting myself (at the time) also what you are doing is more bus style play. You are seeing there is a good argument and saying yeah I see your points. Maybe you are both bussing him. I mainly just want answers (simmilar thing to was I was doing to killing a while back) as we need everything we can get.
I didn't vote against my scum read. My #1 scum read was Stutters and I voted for him. The discussion was about my ranking of #3 and #4 picks. Kind of a hypothetical discussion and I still think my reasons behind it is solid.
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On September 09 2012 01:28 Xatalos wrote:
Sonic Death Monkey, are you on board with lynching KillingTime? Why / why not? In your latest post you were hesitant because lynching KillingTime would give "limited info", but please forget factors like that. Everything is decided with this lynch, so it has to hit Mafia. Besides, if we lynch KillingTime and he flips Mafia, it would give more info than with imcasey or Stutters695 flipping Mafia (at least KillingTime has been more active than imcasey or Stutters695...).
Not really. We don't win the game if we lynch a maffia d3. It only makes sense we care about whether we lose on d3 or d4 and I sure don't. This means that information is important, but quite hard to obtain without some analytical work (it sucks thrawn or Kreb is around, I don't have the time this weekend). For this reason I could get behind the idea of lynching the most like scum, my guess is usually it's best anyway. I guess where we differ is that I consider you one of the lynching candidates.
On September 08 2012 23:31 Xatalos wrote:
When considering today's lynch, I'm going to just flat-out ignore kushm4sta, JacobStrangelove and Sonic Death Monkey as lynch candidates. You three have been the most active and contributive posters so far, which also makes you the most likely townies. I'm not saying there can't be Mafia among you, but if we somehow managed to get 4 votes on one of you, the chance of hitting Mafia wouldn't be good. Certainly one of you flipping Mafia would make it much easier to find the remaining two Mafia, but as I just explained, we can't risk an immediate loss for future benefits.
If you really trust those three players (you're basically saying you're willing to risk the outcome of the game trusting us) and all of us are leaning towards Killing, why do you try to change the lynch to Stutters? What you're saying about us consolidating the votes is very true. I'm going to look primarily to Kush when it comes to the d3 lynch, secondarily to Jacob. If someone else is behind the decision of the voting candidate, you being one clear example, I'm going to be very sceptical.
Also, in your opinion Stutters, Killing and imcasey are likely scum. Do you have any thoughts about the Stutters vs Killing feud? It came at a very weird timing for it to be manufactured. The only heat Killing was taking at that point was from Jacob, and even he was backing down.
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Sorry guys I've been out of town. Posting from my phone again since I have a free moment. I'm be back in full.tomorrow around 5 est. Anyway I'm the one shot big who took the terrible shot on Drazak. It was either mylo or lylo so I figured shooting to confirm myself and Drazak most recent posts before the end of night made me feel like he was the best shot.
I'll try to check in before then but I'm pretty busy.
The shot claim is in my post two before this (can't quote because I'm on my phone. You'll notice how I have sentences that are like this "word.2ndword" if you look at the post the first letter of each word before the . It spells I shot then the next time it occurs is Drazak. The ones after that were just, me trying to sell it (my phone does do this though which is where I got the idea)
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loll Stutters is vig... wtf I guess I'm wrong about eveything...
If it's not obvious, real vig should counterclaim if it's not stutters
so 2 separate things real quick...
1 Where the fuck are you iamcasey??
He said he is actively looking at the thread just doesn't feel the need to post anything because it would be redundant.
Can you post anyway? I don't care if you have nothing to add. It helps us read you.
I really thought he was town, but as soon as the heat is off him he starts being completely afk. Even more afk than normal.
My entire town read on him is pretty much based on how WeeTee quit really early and I wouldn't expect that from mafia. Admittedly not the most rock solid reasoning but it made sense to me.
2 As far as I'm concerned at this point, the question is not are mafia busing someone, but rather who is busing who.
Think about it. It would be very stupid for mafia to not bus each other at this point and it would make it very easy to figure out who was mafia.
If i were mafia I would be busing the fuck out of killing right now.
If you aren't going to be able to be here for 9 pm tomorrow (fuck yall american time) please say how close to lynch time you will be able to be here so we know how late we can get a bandwagon going.
ofc that's just in case we decide to change our mind about killing. All I'm going to be doing at work is reading through filters on my phone, but for now ##vote killingtime
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Wow stutters is vig? Hurm... If he is this puts killing and xatalos in really bad light. Also If he is it's basicly a show down with imcasey and sonic. Due to imcasey apparently not being vig (I will post my case that made me thing he was in a minute) This does make me think twice about the situation.
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EPT
