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So I have to leave for work now, but before I go let me point something out.
Xatalos, Stutters, and Killing, who had not made a post in quite a while, all post within 10 minutes of each other.
Could this be a coincidence? Absolutely.
But I also think it could be a scumslip and they have a scummeet to discuss who they are killing and their plan of action.
I think it would be a very big coincidence that they all post at the same time after not posting for so long.
What do you think jacob, iamcasey?
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/obs too
GL town, but you can do it =)
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On September 08 2012 10:01 kushm4sta wrote:
Now we learn if we actually have a medic maybe....
On September 08 2012 10:19 BioSC wrote:
drazak, the Medic, was found dead!
LOL, this just cracked me up.
This doesn't have to be too bad though. Obviously getting our medic killed off is unquestionably bad, but we didn't know we had one anyway, so let's just pretend drazak was a vanilla townie :p
I was thinking we'd likely end up 5 to 3, but now we're 4 to 3. We're still looking at the same scenario, we need to lynch three consecutive scum. However, now we need to find 3 out of 7 players instead of 3 out of 8. Simple probability theory tells us that the former is quite a lot easier. At least given that drazak wasn't considered anywhere near a cleared townie. It's also possible that there's a good vig strat where we can end the game in d4 (not sure yet if that'd make sense for us though and we still obv need to find all scum).
One thing I find really weird is your discussions about the vig. To me it seems like only way you can know who the vig is by having extra info. I know there are three red players in this game with more info than the rest of us, so I'm really curious how Kush and Jacob can be so sure. Sorry for being passive aggressive, but I don't want to throw out all my thoughts on the vig situation right now.
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On September 08 2012 14:35 KillingTime wrote:
Kush has so far pushed Drazak, Kreb & Cubu - &FOS's xatalos. Leaving aside Xatalos, that is a 100% miss rate so far and now you are pushing me because my reads are too safe and non-committal. Welp, that is pretty funny. I have no idea why town should trust anything you say at this point.
Also - I have no idea why you are asking that question because the vig has only one shot?
I agree.with sonic that we should roelclaim at this point - we need all the info we can get because if we mislynch again we lose
Where did I say we should roleclaim?
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On September 08 2012 20:06 kushm4sta wrote:
@Jacob
##fos sonic.
He has not been getting enough scrutiny as he should and I have not noticed him all game. He's been so under the radar all game, which is suspicious to me.
Fair enough. I haven't been under the radar because I haven't contributed though, but because none of you guys have been questioning me. It's not like I'm going to build cases against myself.
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On September 08 2012 06:49 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2012 02:38 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:I've been checking out Stutter's filter, starting d1 with our back-and-forth: + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:@Sonic Death MonkeySo your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV). You also say Show nested quote +The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.) Basically your rebuttal is that my “entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution” and then you shoot back with accusations of your own. I explain why you’re wrong… + Show Spoiler +On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:Alright, a couple of thoughts. On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote:
Im not lurking! I just woke up! First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here? This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
@Sonic Death Monkey
So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution. The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about: 1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making. You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy? As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:You also say The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all. The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2. On September 04 2012 06:15 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:Alright, a couple of thoughts. On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote:
Im not lurking! I just woke up! First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here? This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
@Sonic Death Monkey
So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution. The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about: 1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making. You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy? As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:You also say The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all. The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2. Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before. Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good. The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all. The question you answer here isn’t the one I asked. I wanted to know the intent of your original posts, the posts that made you a suspect in the first place. Which I explain in my next post… + Show Spoiler +On September 04 2012 16:26 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 06:15 Stutters695 wrote:On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:Alright, a couple of thoughts. On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote:
Im not lurking! I just woke up! First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here? This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
@Sonic Death Monkey
So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution. The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about: 1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making. You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy? As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).
It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:You also say The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)
I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all. The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2. Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before. Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good. The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all. EOD = End of day Honestly I don't find this response very satisfying. It seems like we have quite different experiences from the game though and we might both be biased. Imo d1 the town usually focus way too much on active players while scum try to fly under the radar. That's why I like putting pressure on lurkers, you were just one of them and the one I happened to find the most suspect. You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game? So what was the motivation behind your generic posts d1? I'm sure a smart player like you have motives. Did you really think they were pro-town? You came off as really defensive despite it being clear your posts were useless and that you knew the game well enough to understand that they were useless. You were basically saying “hey guys, focus on motives, my motives are clean”, when it’s clear that the motives of generic posts and then just showing up for EOD can easily be motives of scum wanting to fly under the radar. Why so defensive of these useless posts? D2 you play differently. You contribute with some meta on Kville and calling out KillingTime. This is of course appreciated and gives a reason to let you stay in the game. After the heat you had taken on d1 this was pretty much required and of course what any smart player would do (townie or scum). My question regarding d2 is one Kreb brought up earlier: the KillingTime accusations. To me they came off as a distraction that hurt the more productive discussions. Did you see any chances of actually lynching KillingTime? If not, why wouldn't you just let those accusations wait? Good question but a pretty simple answer. No I didn't see a KillingTime lynch as going to happen. However KillingTime would have been my best lynch based off of post content. I wanted a Kville lynch until he actually started contributing. Seeing as it felt like Kville and I were the two main lynch candidates I couldn't let those accusations wait. This is arguable, but the only thing that felt like it kept me alive over Kville yesterday was that I responded to questions (what you call me being defensive I call me clarifying my points since they were broad, I'm not arguing that). Given that the most asked question of me was "Who are your major reads, who do you think is town" etc. there was absolutely no reason for me to not post my best read. I could have made a case on Drazak or Xatalos or imcasey but it would have been a rehashing of others arguments as opposed to bringing a new perspective onto somebody.
The question I found the most interesting among those I asked was the last one. With all the info we have now, I didn't think the d1 case against you is very strong anymore (we should be able to make better decisions than basing reads from limited d1 reads). However, the last question was trap (which is why I was a little annoyed that Jacob tried to answer the questions for you). I thought through the possible answers and came to the conclusion that there were three:
1) You thought there was actually a good chance of lynching Killing.
2) You didn't think there was a good chance but you thought it was a good idea to discuss it asap.
3) You were trying to save your own ass.
So I was considering what excuse a scum would use:
1) Not only do I myself think the possibility of a Killing lynch was really small, shortly after Strutter made his Killing case, he posted this: "Currently though my best vote is without a doubt on Kville". So if he had claimed he thought there was a good chance of lynching Killing he would've been FOS.
2) This is answer is just dumb. Stutter doesn't seem dumb. This answer would've also been FOS, bet less so than 1) because it could be that our opinions just differed.
3) I think this is the least likely answer a scum would give, but the most likely actual reason behind bringing it up (whether townie or scum). Note that he was on both mine and Kreb's list of highly suspects before making the Killing case, but was afterwards dropped from most d2 lynch discussions.
Basically you gave me the exact reasoning I had expected from an honest townie. While this doesn't necessarily clear you (because it could also be the answer from a really good scum), it does make Stutter a lot more townie in my book.
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On September 08 2012 20:19 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Where did I say we should roleclaim?
Sorry it was kreb in his night post - for some reason I thought it was in your long post on p32 but actually it was his suggestion just above on the page... Without devoting time to setup speculation I think it is reasonable to assume that we have a cop given that a miller has flipped, and he could help us out today if he so chose. That said, it is clearly for the cop to decide whether to claim and others to go from there. If the cop (if there is one) doesn’t want to claim for whatever reasons then a “forced” roleclaim is no good.
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yeah the vigi does only have 1 shot.
so there's nothing wrong with revealing him. I'm pretty certain it's iamcasey, although the vigi only having 1 shot makes me less certain.
!!there is no reason why vigi shouldn't roleclaim at this point.!!
I doubt mafia would risk a counterclaim and we could have a confirmed town.
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It's obvious we've gained a lot of information today. I feel like the field being limited to seven players, this is the first time we can actually think about entire 3-way teams. Like I said in my post yesterday, I find a Stutter and Killing conspiracy unlikely (a mastermind would be needed, because it's very well crafted). Given my latest post I'm leaning scum on Killing, townie on Stutter.
Still, from the last days I'm leaning townie on Kush, scum on Xatalos (although Kreb's point that it's a null read has some merit), currently I'm pretty neutral on Jacob and imcasey is a total null read. Jacob, could you address my post from yesterday? I don't understand the imcasey = sure townie argument. I don't have a lot of time atm so I won't throw out random team reads. I will make sure to be back later tonight though.
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On September 08 2012 21:33 kushm4sta wrote:
yeah the vigi does only have 1 shot.
so there's nothing wrong with revealing him. I'm pretty certain it's iamcasey, although the vigi only having 1 shot makes me less certain.
!!there is no reason why vigi shouldn't roleclaim at this point.!!
I doubt mafia would risk a counterclaim and we could have a confirmed town.
I thought it was Jacob or Kreb. Kreb obviously made a case for drazak before his if-I-die-post, Jacob made a case n2 as well. But basically anyone who read Kreb's post could've made the shot if they found it convincing. That's why I found it weird why anyone would be so sure. Obviously if Kreb was vig there's not going to be any claim.
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DO NOT DISCUSS VIG!
Fuck, I knew I should've thought this through before posting. We should not discuss the vig. If the vig is around he can wait to claim d4 or d5 when it's more valuable. Only if he's about to get lynched he should claim.
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@sonic check the first mod post. Vig only has 1 shot all game long. He is useless now except as someone who can roleclaim and
Confirm town.
Ps my phone bat is running low quickly so expect a sudden drop off of activity.
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On September 08 2012 21:49 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Still, from the last days I'm leaning townie on Kush, scum on Xatalos (although Kreb's point that it's a null read has some merit), currently I'm pretty neutral on Jacob and imcasey is a total null read. Jacob, could you address my post from yesterday? I don't understand the imcasey = sure townie argument. I don't have a lot of time atm so I won't throw out random team reads. I will make sure to be back later tonight though.
I thought I addressed this in my long night post? I will check what you said though.
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Oh right found it post inc..
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Nice I found a charger.
@Sonic who do you think we shouldLynch d3? Aka who is your strongest scum read atm. Because we can't get this wrong.
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On September 08 2012 22:20 kushm4sta wrote:
@sonic check the first mod post. Vig only has 1 shot all game long. He is useless now except as someone who can roleclaim and
Confirm town.
Ps my phone bat is running low quickly so expect a sudden drop off of activity.
Doesn't matter. Vig shouldn't claim. If X is vig and gets to a three person end game, he can claim and we increase our chances drastically. If he claims now he gets whacked and we have no information in the end game. Only if he's up for lynching should he claim.
The problem is if Kreb is vig, that leaves it wide open for fake roleclaim. Will have to think more, but don't discuss who's vig yet and don't claim before we've thought this through.
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On September 08 2012 22:31 kushm4sta wrote:
Nice I found a charger.
@Sonic who do you think we shouldLynch d3? Aka who is your strongest scum read atm. Because we can't get this wrong.
I think Killing is the strongest case, but I'm unsure if we gain enough info if he flips red (it would give one more day of getting info though). We shouldn't focus too much on one player yet. I need to think this through more but I don't have the time atm.
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I just read through Sonics filter and it doesn't read scum to me. He just puts way too much effort into some of the posts. I think mafia would not post with putting that much effort into being pro town because they would feel like it was a waste of time.
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That was a bad turn of events... Now it's only 4-3 and Mafia can vote switch at the last minute to lynch anyone they want, UNLESS every town player is already voting for a Mafia. That means we should stop focusing on elaborate connection theories and slight reads. The only way we're winning this is if everyone consolidates their vote on one player. If no player has 4 or more votes, it's an automatic loss, no matter what else happens. We must lynch the most likely Mafia player today, and no other factors can be considered in the lynch (such as information gained from the flip).
Looks like Kreb never got the chance to write an answer to my previous post :/ You're here though, kushm4sta. Don't you have anything to say about my reply to your (now obviously false) drazak/Xatalos connection theories? If you want to know something more, just ask.
When considering today's lynch, I'm going to just flat-out ignore kushm4sta, JacobStrangelove and Sonic Death Monkey as lynch candidates. You three have been the most active and contributive posters so far, which also makes you the most likely townies. I'm not saying there can't be Mafia among you, but if we somehow managed to get 4 votes on one of you, the chance of hitting Mafia wouldn't be good. Certainly one of you flipping Mafia would make it much easier to find the remaining two Mafia, but as I just explained, we can't risk an immediate loss for future benefits.
That leaves imcasey, Stutters695 and KillingTime. All three have been somewhat lurky or semi-active, but definitely not actively invested in the discussion like kushm4sta, JacobStrangelove and Sonic Death Monkey have. Since the overall chance of hitting Mafia is 43% at this point, lynching one of you three would give us maybe a 60-90% chance of hitting Mafia and the road to victory (after getting one Mafia, it becomes infinitely easier to find the rest).
imcasey
Has strong opinions and a careless posting style (which is townish), but doesn't really explain much. It could be that he's just trying to look like a careless newbie town, but not actually putting in the effort to make fake reasonings for his opinions. He also has posts like this:
On September 06 2012 20:50 imcasey wrote:
Seriously ? I feel i have a solid case here, and not a single one of you have replied to anything of what i wrote. I encourage everyone to read my post again, is it only me that think iv got a pretty solid case here ? I am sure Xatalos is mafia and he will be my vote.
What the heck? He is totally sure I'm Mafia after a short and lackluster case against me? This gives me the impression of overdoing the newbie act and trying to look aggressive without backing it up.
The situation looks worse for imcasey if we also look at WeeTee's filter. Considering WeeTee's extremely fluffy posting and empty walls of text, imcasey's strong opinions might be an attempt to make people forget about WeeTee's neutral opinions and flip-flopping by acting in a very different way from WeeTee.
Stutters695
Day 1 was very non-committing and fluffy for him. Even his vote for Cubu was extremely non-committing:
On September 04 2012 05:15 Stutters695 wrote:
Anyway unless Cubu comes back and posts some content I think he's our best lynch today.He's provided nothing. He's skirted issues and essentially said he shouldn't be lynched because other people post less (even though if you tally his posts since the initial first few on policy and the like he's said absolutely nothing of value).
By the same token I'd support a lynch on Kville if we can consolidate enough votes on him. There is at least one person who said they probably won't be back before lynch who is on Cubu and we can't trust Kville's vote on himself. Because of that I have to go with Cubu but I'm open to switching if there is support.
##Vote Cubu
It looks like his reason for voting Cubu was that there was already a bandwagon going against Cubu, not because Cubu was suspicious. The worst Stutters695 could say about Cubu is "he's provided nothing". Okay, that's anti-town, but not necessarily a Mafia trait. Mafia would want to have at least something in their filter to avoid immediate death. Stutters695's decision to vote for Cubu was so non-committing and weakly reasoned that it looks unlikely he even actually cared about which player would get lynched. Who doesn't care about the lynch target? That's right: Mafia.
After that Stutters695 makes a good analysis of some suspicious traits in KillingTime's filter. Even so, he votes for kville (for being useless) and puts KillingTime as his #2. Sometime later I'm suddenly his #2 suspect (up from #4 / #5) without any explanations for this change of opinion:
On September 07 2012 09:32 Stutters695 wrote:
A little late in the day but if Kville can keep up his more recent posting I'd be willing to switch to Xatalos over him.
What? No reasoning, just plainly stating that he'd maybe want to lynch me instead of kville? Same as with the Cubu lynch, Stutters695 doesn't look like he wants to commit to anything. It's as if he's afraid to be linked with any particular lynch. Again, who would have such a motivation: Mafia.
KillingTime
Looking at KillingTime's filter more closely, I think I've made a mistake. Earlier I thought he's probably town, because he has shared his reads very openly and self-imposedly. However, it's not unusual for Mafia to make big lists about their "reads" (actually just small pieces of opinion) to look like they're contributing - while actually not contributing much at all. KillingTime has shared his reads on other players regularly, but he hasn't actually scumhunted or pushed the discussion forward. Basically, he has been flying under the radar by posting pseudo-contributions to look like he's doing something. That's a strong Mafia motivation.
- - -
I think it's almost certain that 2-3 of these players are Mafia. The question is, who of them is the most likely Mafia? We must guess correctly or we lose instantly. We also must get 4 votes on one player or we lose instantly. I want to hear your thoughts: kushm4sta, JacobStrangelove and Sonic Death Monkey. What do you think about imcasey, Stutters695 and KillingTime?
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@sonic kreb was a vanilla townie it said so when he was killed.
I think we should focus on 1 person. We have no certain mafia yet, so relying of associative cases, looking for the scumteam before the scum adds too much complexity, too many variables to our search.
I think kiLLing is the most scumlike person and the best lynch. Do people agree or not?
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