EPTIf WeeTee really didn't have that much time and he was mafia, he could have easily posted very little and hid amongst our game's many lurkers.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXVI - Page 32
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
If WeeTee really didn't have that much time and he was mafia, he could have easily posted very little and hid amongst our game's many lurkers. | ||
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
On September 07 2012 23:01 JacobStrangelove wrote: + Show Spoiler + Now I would also like to point out this. On September 07 2012 15:09 KillingTime wrote: ... well that is annoying. I agree that the reason that we ended up with a Xatalos v Kville situation was because we were all accusing each other. I said at the start of the day I really hoped that we could come up with a better lynch target.. but we did not. Scum have succeeded in thoroughly bamboozling me I have to say. I will look into the thread this evening and I'll be happy to answer questions from those who have suspicions of me. After the flip Kush and I immediately analyse it talk about it start making reads etc... Kililng comes in and makes a “annoyed post” and also says he is bamboozled and says he is happy to answer questions about himself. He makes no mention of scum hunting. Why? Because he doesn’t need to hunt scum, he is scum. This is another fluff post saying he is confused. Surely he would have an opinion on what happened. He says so much however his major posts are lists and he is very non committal. Surely someone else sees this! While my arguments up until this points haven’t been the clearest if you think I am town why do you think I hardly left Killings side. Intuition has to could for something and it has. He was not able to answer why he was so non committal his only reply was On September 07 2012 00:01 KillingTime wrote: First, if you feel I have been non-committal or weak in my play then I can only apologise and say this is my first game and I am definitely learning as I go. That is not an excuse, but it is the most likely explanation for "weak" town play on my part. I think Kreb, Drazak & Sonic are town, everyone else I am currently suspicious of. This is not really a reply, for me it is an excuse that anybody could use. Also his case on stutters is due to kush/xatalos pushing the conversation away from him. His one major non listed case was based on association. On September 06 2012 17:02 KillingTime wrote: Ok, having re-read through a bunch of filters today I think we should lynch Stutters695 - Yes his posting/lurking has been/is reason enough to lynch him. But, reading back through filters there has been way to much redirection of discussion away from him as a good lynch - particularly from kush. ... Now, this does not mean that both Kush & Xatalos are mafia if stutters flips - but that is WAY too much subtle redirecting of a target for me. Stutters is as scummy as anyone at this point, if he flips we will have some strong targets for d3. If we lynch him and he is not mafia, town is in a bad spot - but we are in a bad spot regardless of who we lynch if they flip and are not mafia (kreb has convinced me of this with his case against kville that there is no point not going for lurkers.). I would also like to point out that kush seems to be following his meta as well. Admittedly meta talk in a newbie game is a little hard but you would think rolling scum would mess with how they would act. Also if you notice stutters filter and replies I will tell you why he is likely town. He did have a slow start day one. Considering drazak kville weetee cubu all had slow day one starts two who are confirmed town and one who I pointed out seems confirmed town to me this is no reason for a scum read. What you should look at is the quality and logical reasoning in his filter. You should read the whole post but in particular. On September 06 2012 18:28 Stutters695 wrote: Please explain what part of my play has been more scummy than someone who has been trolling the thread and not contributed anything? ##FoS Killing Time I need to go through his filter but this isn't the first time he hasn't taken a stance on issues while posting "reads" that don't actually commit longterm. While kville did show up as town in the lynch he was an easy lynch, scum would want to lynch the slightly harder targets so they have a free win by the time they get to end game. For example if we lynched stutters it would be easy to convince town to lynch kville. If anything if we spent another day with him in the game we would have been frustrated into lynching him. Also he returns fire on killing time and is way more active engaged asking questions giving responces. He questions kush and drazak on the issues and responds on a manner I can only call logical. His filter isn’t filled with fluff so I suggest you read it for yourself as everything he says comes across in a pro town questioning way. Now I am going to transition to drazak. His vote on kush only caused confusion and was purely a slug fest with no real reasoning behind it. After being “caught out” as such by kville and stutters plus the kush argument he backs out and doesn’t comment. He hardly provides good reasons for his mistakes, Also he has a bad habit of calling kville useless. However enough of that I will provide posts and reasons. On September 06 2012 18:03 drazak wrote: My accusation wasn't out of nowhere, I made a read based on what happened, I reasoned, carefully. I saw that Kush wasn't scumhunting day 1. If you're not scumhunting, you're not furthering town, if you're not furthering town... you're mafia. I then saw kush slipped by overreacting to me. Feel free to poke holes in my actual reasoning instead of calling me scum for making a reasoned accusation. Kush wasn’t scum hunting day one? I’m a freaking unicycling unicorn. First his Kush isn’t scum hunting read is based on this. On September 05 2012 11:55 drazak wrote: I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches. Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush. ##Vote Kushm4sta But then his day one post was this On September 03 2012 21:24 drazak wrote: My best read is cubu. He's tried to throw suspiscion, he stopped posting when he had nobody to lay thin accusations on. Cubu has posted only with low content, low value posts, he hasn't had any real reads other than discussing statistics and how afk I was. I think Cubu isn't a great D1 lynch though, which is why he doesn't currently have my vote, if he continues to have such low content posts tomorrow, he will certainly have my vote. Cubu is someone we can try to analyze tomorrow and figure out if he really is mafia, we can't analyze kville, and if we wait to lynch kville it's not going to get better, we don't even have a baseline for him. To that point, I'm someone you can analyze D2, you have several posts by me, with fairly decent content. Even if kville isn't mafia, he isn't helping anyone. In addition, I felt that going for cubu would just be bandwagoning at this point, which as town doesn't help me at all, espescially considering I do have my own unique thoughts, which I have shared with everyone. The whole “even if kville isn’t mafia he isn’t helping anyone” isn’t this the same thing? They are both talking about lynching the worst townie however drazak covers himself better (something a scum would do over a town) refering to the bandwagon and trying to convince people he is town by pointing out he is town not just assuming everyone knows he is town. “which as town doesn't help me at all” This would be obvious if he was town. Anyway these are my thoughts on Drazak. Because of the lengh of this post I will save Krebs analises for my next post probably (if I find anything) My intuitive thoughts are “he has seemed town but he is saying some strange stuff that I need to look into.” Ok this is the section of jacob's recent post that accusing killing and drazak. Even though jacob's posts have been pretty WTF at times I suggest everyone read close. I agree with his argument against killing a lot and I strongly suspect killingtime right now. This quote from killing especially stuck out to me when I first read it, and the more I think about it, the more scumlike it seems: Scum have succeeded in thoroughly bamboozling me I have to say. He's gloating. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution. Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV). You also say If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.) Basically your rebuttal is that my “entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution” and then you shoot back with accusations of your own. I explain why you’re wrong… + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages. The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about: 1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making. You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy? As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread. It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid. Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box. I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all. The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2. + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 06:15 Stutters695 wrote: Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before. Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good. The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all. The question you answer here isn’t the one I asked. I wanted to know the intent of your original posts, the posts that made you a suspect in the first place. Which I explain in my next post… + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 16:26 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: EOD = End of day Honestly I don't find this response very satisfying. It seems like we have quite different experiences from the game though and we might both be biased. Imo d1 the town usually focus way too much on active players while scum try to fly under the radar. That's why I like putting pressure on lurkers, you were just one of them and the one I happened to find the most suspect. You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game? So what was the motivation behind your generic posts d1? I'm sure a smart player like you have motives. Did you really think they were pro-town? You came off as really defensive despite it being clear your posts were useless and that you knew the game well enough to understand that they were useless. You were basically saying “hey guys, focus on motives, my motives are clean”, when it’s clear that the motives of generic posts and then just showing up for EOD can easily be motives of scum wanting to fly under the radar. Why so defensive of these useless posts? D2 you play differently. You contribute with some meta on Kville and calling out KillingTime. This is of course appreciated and gives a reason to let you stay in the game. After the heat you had taken on d1 this was pretty much required and of course what any smart player would do (townie or scum). My question regarding d2 is one Kreb brought up earlier: the KillingTime accusations. To me they came off as a distraction that hurt the more productive discussions. Did you see any chances of actually lynching KillingTime? If not, why wouldn't you just let those accusations wait? | ||
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imcasey
Norway17 Posts
[b]Xatalos/b] Why do you consider your case vs me so strong , i think its a pretty bad case.And your outdated case vs Sonic, you never explained ? Im intrested in what you have to say about this. It seems for me like your just making up excuses to stay alive. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Consider I think my survival chances are fairly limited, I'll make sure to help with what I can. | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
@sonic Just what productive discussions are you referring to? If you were talking about the kush/drazak that could be the same thing. If you were talking about kville... well it is obvious what happened. The discussion was hardly there anyway. Honestly the productive discussions weren't all that productive and it did show a side of killing that is now very suspicious. Also stutters had not so useful posts day one but he has made useful posts day two. Unlike killing time who has avoided most things both days. Do you not notice or comment on the state of killings integrity right now? However this is speculation. I will now read through you filter. I would agree on your survival chances kreb :/ | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 08 2012 00:43 JacobStrangelove wrote: Well I have looked at krebs filter and honeslty I have nothing. He seems so completely town to me, the only thing that is odd is his frustrations regarding the kville thing + Show Spoiler + No shit. His play was so terrible on so many levels. When we needed him to post he didnt, and when he was going out he went on an accusation spree and created a massive shitfest for a few hours. Kvilles play was complete bullshit and should not have been allowed. This is pretty much the same as if we started at a 7-3 player situation, except we've had 72 extra hours of discussion. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 08 2012 03:33 JacobStrangelove wrote: Guess who can't sleep. @sonic Just what productive discussions are you referring to? If you were talking about the kush/drazak that could be the same thing. If you were talking about kville... well it is obvious what happened. The discussion was hardly there anyway. Honestly the productive discussions weren't all that productive and it did show a side of killing that is now very suspicious. Also stutters had not so useful posts day one but he has made useful posts day two. Unlike killing time who has avoided most things both days. Do you not notice or comment on the state of killings integrity right now? However this is speculation. I will now read through you filter. I would agree on your survival chances kreb :/ Yeah, I think Kush/drazak was a distraction, which is part of why I think we didn't need yet another case thrown out at that point. I was going through Stutters' filter and I didn't want to mix in random thoughts about others in this post. Just because I'm asking Stutters questions doesn't necessarily mean I think he's the #1 suspect or a good lynch for tomorrow. This is just a good way of forcing information from someone we gave a pass on d2. There's 48h of d3 before the lynch choice and I don't think we should even be talking about lynching subjects at this point. I haven't had time to read up on all the developments of the Killing case, but I certainly will. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 08 2012 03:30 Kreb wrote: Oooo. My if-I-die-post will be good today, I might have figured out something.... hmmm. Just gimme some time to write a proper post. Consider I think my survival chances are fairly limited, I'll make sure to help with what I can. If you can, make sure to post it just a few minutes before deadline. I'm not around for EON and I think it's pretty counterproductive to post an if-I-die-post which scum have the time to read. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://www.thadguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/modal-logic-can-solve-all-problems.png) Hey, I just googled logic and this is what I got, seems relevant enough! :p Players remaining 1) KillingTime 2) drazak 3) kushm4sta 4) WeeTee, replaced by imcasey 6) Xatalos 9) Kreb 10) Stutters695 11) JacobStrangelove 12) Sonic Death Monkey Assumed Town SDM Kush Jacob Kreb (for the rest of you) 1) We have, through attacks in the thread: Xata/Casey different alignment or both town 2) We have, through attacks in the thread: Kill/Stut different alignment or both town Xata/Casey both town not possible unless Kill/Stut/Draz scum team (not possible according to 2) Kill/Stut both town not possbile unless Draz/Xata/Casey scum team (not possib according to 1) As such both must be different alignment. -> Xata/Casey are different alignment Kill/Stut are different alignment Players remaining: Killing, Drazak, Stutters, Xata, Casey Possible combinations: A) Draz, Stut, Xata B) Draz, Stut, Casey C) Kill, Draz, Xata D) Kill, Draz, Casey What do these have in common!?!??!?!?!?!?!?! * Drum roll* + Show Spoiler + Drazak Some random further speculation. I focused on what these five players said about each other, ignoring what the rest said about them or what they said about the rest. I wouldnt put all that much weigth into this, but might be worth reading. Speculation 1: + Show Spoiler + Page 26 KillingTime: I think Kreb, Drazak & Sonic are town -> Doesnt mean anything, but might point towards C or D. A and B only means Killing is a town genuinely not thinking Drazak is mafia. Specualtion 2: + Show Spoiler + Page 26 KillingTime: I don't think Xatalos or Kville are bad lynches. -> Assuming this means Xata and Killing arent scum together -> Possible: A, B, D Speculation 3: + Show Spoiler + Page 26 Xatalos: Stutters has been making okay-looking posts recently as well. -> Assuming Xatalos has genuine reasons -> All still possible, but C unlikely (why would Xata let Stut off the hook otherwise?). Speculation 4: + Show Spoiler + Page 21 Casey: Stutters seems to have good post, spent time on analyzing/writing them, i think he got good content in his post, definitely not a vote candidate as i see it. -> All still possible, but D unlikely (why would Casey let Stut off the hook otherwise?). Might point towards B. A and C only means casey is a town genuinely not thinking Stut is mafia. Please note: - If Jacob, Sonic, Kush or I am mafia, all this is null and should be ignored. - If the Xatalos/Casey situation is fabricated, all this is null (though, that means you have two mafia and just need to find the third) -If the Killing/Stutters situation is fabricated, all this is null (same) But. -- Supposing all these three are true, Drazak is mafia. My own take on this: -The Killing/Stutters situation is as real as it gets. -The Xatalos/casey situation is a bit wierd. It seems two quite inactive players found each other somewhat randomly. I wouldnt completely put it past them to fabricate this, but I consider it not likely. Worth noting might be that in a previous mafia game Xatalos bussed his fellow mafia friend into glorious mafia victory all solo. So he is no stranger to crafty moves. -I consider Kush, Sonic, Jacob to be fairly solid town reads. Worth thinking about: What about roleclaiming after N2? I dont know, theres so many possibilities what could happen. But should there be a detective around with some solid reads, he might seriously consider roleclaiming. We also got rid of a (the?) miller. Only Godfather left (or 2nd miller, lets hope there is none....) to fuck up reads. A detective could fill in some blanks. Also, if anyone sees any problem with my reasoning, or find a reason to believe either or the three assumptions to not be true, its probably a good idea to tell. I dont wanna be the guy putting the final nail in the coffin for town. | ||
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
His posts are never that wishy washy. He has not always chosen the safe targets. The only reason I see for suspecting him is how he created confusion d2 and promoted the kush/drazak feud, but it's not enough for me. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
On September 05 2012 06:29 Kreb wrote: My biggest mafia-read on the remaining players would be Xatalos. I think he came Into the thread posting with descent activity initially. But eventually it his activity kinda went down, his vote on Cubu didnt convince me of anything, and I still havent forgotten how he commended Kush on Kushs initial jump on me (Which was largely agreed on was not justified). IM not sure why someone would consider such a post to be "very proactive post with good reasoning". The key word here is "proactive", not "good". kushm4sta's accusation of you wasn't the highest quality post in the thread (although it had the reasonable point of your apparently intentional delaying of contributions), but if you look at the motivation behind kushm4sta's post, it doesn't look like something Mafia would say at all. It was a bold and attention-grabbing move, which leads me to believe that kushm4sta was just going with his gut feeling and not manipulating the thread more subtly (like Mafia tend to do). Combined with his overall reckless style, I put him as probably my best town read at that time. I agree that my low activity and hasty vote for Cubu haven't been helpful, but unfortunately, I just haven't had the time to play properly. As you can see, this lack of proper activity has nearly got me lynched so far... While if I had just pretended to be busy, I could have easily just been slightly more active and so avoided all these cumulative suspicions. Why take such a stupid risk as Mafia? At worst it's a null tell in my opinion. Then kushm4sta... On September 06 2012 08:53 kushm4sta wrote: Someone else I WanT to get people'S thoughts on are drazzak. He is a semi-lurker and all around Bad poster. So losing him would not mean losing good town, unlike a lynch on xatalos. His aTtacK on me seems scummy for various reasons.. possibly defending his scumbuddy by attacking his scumbuddy'S attacker. Also I would like to make a post about the drazzak xatalos connection. If you read the filter xatalos has a HistOry of defending drazzak and calling his posts good when they Really aren't. When i read this i was like ...huh? Drazak'S defense of thrawn'S vote Actually made him seeM more suspicious to me. I would not call him genuinely helpful at all. It seems very out of place reading xatalos' filter that he would be that accepting of drazak. drazak didn't really seem afraid or pressured there. Instead, it looked like he was genuinely trying to help (of course everything can be faked, but I just went with my gut feeling in that situation). Maybe I also felt like he deserved another chance due to his real life circumstances... Some sort of a kindred spirit for me, haha. In more seriousness, drazak's later crusade against you looks townish in my opinion. Again, why make such a bold and risky move as Mafia? It just doesn't make sense. Mafia wants to avoid the "heat" at all costs, not purposefully get into the spotlight with something unusual/unexpected. I really have to get sleeping now, so I'm going to continue tomorrow. Luckily there's still a lot of time until the next deadline (I don't really think I'm going to get night killed with this kind of activity level....). The suspects are now more limited in number, so there's a good chance of finally hitting a Mafia and still turning this game around. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
On September 08 2012 02:38 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I've been checking out Stutter's filter, starting d1 with our back-and-forth: + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution. Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV). You also say If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.) Basically your rebuttal is that my “entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution” and then you shoot back with accusations of your own. I explain why you’re wrong… + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages. The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about: 1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making. You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy? As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread. It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid. Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box. I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all. The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2. + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 06:15 Stutters695 wrote: Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before. Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good. The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all. The question you answer here isn’t the one I asked. I wanted to know the intent of your original posts, the posts that made you a suspect in the first place. Which I explain in my next post… + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 16:26 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: EOD = End of day Honestly I don't find this response very satisfying. It seems like we have quite different experiences from the game though and we might both be biased. Imo d1 the town usually focus way too much on active players while scum try to fly under the radar. That's why I like putting pressure on lurkers, you were just one of them and the one I happened to find the most suspect. You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game? So what was the motivation behind your generic posts d1? I'm sure a smart player like you have motives. Did you really think they were pro-town? You came off as really defensive despite it being clear your posts were useless and that you knew the game well enough to understand that they were useless. You were basically saying “hey guys, focus on motives, my motives are clean”, when it’s clear that the motives of generic posts and then just showing up for EOD can easily be motives of scum wanting to fly under the radar. Why so defensive of these useless posts? D2 you play differently. You contribute with some meta on Kville and calling out KillingTime. This is of course appreciated and gives a reason to let you stay in the game. After the heat you had taken on d1 this was pretty much required and of course what any smart player would do (townie or scum). My question regarding d2 is one Kreb brought up earlier: the KillingTime accusations. To me they came off as a distraction that hurt the more productive discussions. Did you see any chances of actually lynching KillingTime? If not, why wouldn't you just let those accusations wait? Good question but a pretty simple answer. No I didn't see a KillingTime lynch as going to happen. However KillingTime would have been my best lynch based off of post content. I wanted a Kville lynch until he actually started contributing. Seeing as it felt like Kville and I were the two main lynch candidates I couldn't let those accusations wait. This is arguable, but the only thing that felt like it kept me alive over Kville yesterday was that I responded to questions (what you call me being defensive I call me clarifying my points since they were broad, I'm not arguing that). Given that the most asked question of me was "Who are your major reads, who do you think is town" etc. there was absolutely no reason for me to not post my best read. I could have made a case on Drazak or Xatalos or imcasey but it would have been a rehashing of others arguments as opposed to bringing a new perspective onto somebody. | ||
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KillingTime
France101 Posts
I have not been trying to "avoid things most days" I have been trying to lynch scum - here is my view of what happened d2: I responded to Jacob to try and stop his suspicions of me. I posted a case (not a good enough one) against the player who I thought/think is likley mafia. kush/drazerk did not seem likely to be lynchd d2 so I ignored this. Stutters came back strongly against the weaknesses in my case, to the extent that a lynch on him was unlikley. It was lynch time and the choice was between kville who had played terribly all game and xatalos who had an excuse for inactivity. | ||
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Given the reads I do think Stutters still remains the person who I think have been getting away with doing the least (excpet casey who I still believe to be a nullread). But Drazak might be the most solid vote given what I posted above. Xatalos, hard to read, neutral or nullread simply because he has barely been posting. KillingTime, havent really got time to dive into him as much as I maybe should have. Should I survive I'll probably do that. Casey is a nullread. Regarding townread. Kush and Jacob I both get the feeling they genuinely try to contribute and that their motives and actions are pro-town. Sonic still remains as someone who does thoughtful posts and solid reads imo. Out of the three townreads he is the one I'd most likely to believe has mind fucked us all and is a sneaky mafia :p But no, he seems very townish. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
On September 08 2012 07:02 kushm4sta wrote: haha ok so xatalos, stutters, and killing all post 10 minutes within each other hmmm.. I.don't think that is scummy at all on its own. Should.you have.a desire to look into this you need to read the filters and make a case based on.evidence that.is more concrete. Xatalos was addrssing Kush while bringing up something related to Drazak.I'm addressing Jacob's question for me and killing time.was answering general questions about him. I don't see what connection you can take out of that except people were online at the same time. Sorry.about the formatting. I'm out at the.moment and typing from my phone and Swype.has this habit of adding periods without me actually touching the period. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
On September 08 2012 08:05 Kreb wrote: Anyway: Short update just on reads. It is to be taken separately from my post above. Given the reads I do think Stutters still remains the person who I think have been getting away with doing the least (excpet casey who I still believe to be a nullread). But Drazak might be the most solid vote given what I posted above. Xatalos, hard to read, neutral or nullread simply because he has barely been posting. KillingTime, havent really got time to dive into him as much as I maybe should have. Should I survive I'll probably do that. Casey is a nullread. Regarding townread. Kush and Jacob I both get the feeling they genuinely try to contribute and that their motives and actions are pro-town. Sonic still remains as someone who does thoughtful posts and solid reads imo. Out of the three townreads he is the one I'd most likely to believe has mind fucked us all and is a sneaky mafia :p But no, he seems very townish. Reasonable. Day 1 was an anomaly for my play this game but obviously you have no way of knowing that. Hopefully my input after the night when we know exactly what we have to go off of for.mylo will clear.up any concerns regarding me. Xatalos.you need to actually contribute and be active come daytime.there.is no excuse for lurking this late in the game with how much.info is out there and.That it's the weekend so you should.Have more time. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 07 2012 23:01 JacobStrangelove wrote: + Show Spoiler + This is a large post but it has been cut into sections of Defense of Imcasey, defense on stutters, case on killing, case on drazak. I will save Kreb for another time as it would be too long otherwise. I just hope the formating works. Ok this is the start of a very long post as of such I will try to be as clear and concise as possible. Kreb you missed a large section of my argument for why WeeTee Imcasey is town. First off I will show you the backstory. If you look at WeeTees first posts it includes this. On September 02 2012 21:19 WeeTee wrote: Good to see you here @jacob should be a good game this time! It is evident that he and I know each other. Why else would he single me out? In other words I know how he plays. I know his meta better than anybody in this thread. Also watching his last mafia game he has used the exact same play style. Now you mention that it isn’t an imcasey read it’s a WeeTee read. Yes but they are the same person. It’s as if you put someone with multiple personalities in the thread but they are the same person. If I am 99% sure WeeTee is town I can assume that translates over to imcasey. Also there are plenty of reasons for the less posting style. With him having to leave this means he was unlikely to be able to form cases day one. Also with the replacement going into his first game a day in so much to read and this would also contribute to the lack of posting. I will post the part you missed about my argument for WeeTee. On September 05 2012 19:22 JacobStrangelove wrote: I probably should point out that part of the reason I had a town read for WeeTee is that I happen to know his style (see his first post where he mentions it’s good to see me) and it reeks of town. With this (although he may have fooled me) I thought Xatatos read of WeeTee when Stutters was available strange. Also with killing he is sceptical of “meta” reads Sure but its more information, that can only be helpful. If WeeTee fits his meta (he does) and he fits the meta I know he is unlikely to be scum. This and the fact that he had to leave due to time problems(although that may have been after my time line is a little messed up) then surely stutters were a better lynch. While the argument in context might be a little out of date the facts about WeeTee remain the same. Also there is this from kville (he was talking to xatalos at the time), while kville was a little trolish you can’t tell me this doesn’t make sense. On September 05 2012 22:55 Kville wrote: Well WeeTee Did get replaced which could be the reason why he was playing so "safe" and conservative. He badnwagoned to avoid a modkill in order to fulfill the replacement, so it seems. The fact that there is little to no evidence other than "he was playing safe" doesn't really seem like a sure vote to go for, unless you are trying for another mislynch. You vote and leave the first day and you do it again the second time. It seems like your strategy seems to be "POP" then lurk. which seems a bit suspicious. And finally we have nothing proven scum against him. I am sure if we examine the filters of people we can come up with a far better target. Non of this let’s backup vote imcasey stuff, that just makes it more likely the scum will spread confusion and force us to vote for him. Now I would also like to point out this. On September 07 2012 15:09 KillingTime wrote: ... well that is annoying. I agree that the reason that we ended up with a Xatalos v Kville situation was because we were all accusing each other. I said at the start of the day I really hoped that we could come up with a better lynch target.. but we did not. Scum have succeeded in thoroughly bamboozling me I have to say. I will look into the thread this evening and I'll be happy to answer questions from those who have suspicions of me. After the flip Kush and I immediately analyse it talk about it start making reads etc... Kililng comes in and makes a “annoyed post” and also says he is bamboozled and says he is happy to answer questions about himself. He makes no mention of scum hunting. Why? Because he doesn’t need to hunt scum, he is scum. This is another fluff post saying he is confused. Surely he would have an opinion on what happened. He says so much however his major posts are lists and he is very non committal. Surely someone else sees this! While my arguments up until this points haven’t been the clearest if you think I am town why do you think I hardly left Killings side. Intuition has to could for something and it has. He was not able to answer why he was so non committal his only reply was On September 07 2012 00:01 KillingTime wrote: First, if you feel I have been non-committal or weak in my play then I can only apologise and say this is my first game and I am definitely learning as I go. That is not an excuse, but it is the most likely explanation for "weak" town play on my part. I think Kreb, Drazak & Sonic are town, everyone else I am currently suspicious of. This is not really a reply, for me it is an excuse that anybody could use. Also his case on stutters is due to kush/xatalos pushing the conversation away from him. His one major non listed case was based on association. On September 06 2012 17:02 KillingTime wrote: Ok, having re-read through a bunch of filters today I think we should lynch Stutters695 - Yes his posting/lurking has been/is reason enough to lynch him. But, reading back through filters there has been way to much redirection of discussion away from him as a good lynch - particularly from kush. ... Now, this does not mean that both Kush & Xatalos are mafia if stutters flips - but that is WAY too much subtle redirecting of a target for me. Stutters is as scummy as anyone at this point, if he flips we will have some strong targets for d3. If we lynch him and he is not mafia, town is in a bad spot - but we are in a bad spot regardless of who we lynch if they flip and are not mafia (kreb has convinced me of this with his case against kville that there is no point not going for lurkers.). I would also like to point out that kush seems to be following his meta as well. Admittedly meta talk in a newbie game is a little hard but you would think rolling scum would mess with how they would act. Also if you notice stutters filter and replies I will tell you why he is likely town. He did have a slow start day one. Considering drazak kville weetee cubu all had slow day one starts two who are confirmed town and one who I pointed out seems confirmed town to me this is no reason for a scum read. What you should look at is the quality and logical reasoning in his filter. You should read the whole post but in particular. On September 06 2012 18:28 Stutters695 wrote: Please explain what part of my play has been more scummy than someone who has been trolling the thread and not contributed anything? ##FoS Killing Time I need to go through his filter but this isn't the first time he hasn't taken a stance on issues while posting "reads" that don't actually commit longterm. While kville did show up as town in the lynch he was an easy lynch, scum would want to lynch the slightly harder targets so they have a free win by the time they get to end game. For example if we lynched stutters it would be easy to convince town to lynch kville. If anything if we spent another day with him in the game we would have been frustrated into lynching him. Also he returns fire on killing time and is way more active engaged asking questions giving responces. He questions kush and drazak on the issues and responds on a manner I can only call logical. His filter isn’t filled with fluff so I suggest you read it for yourself as everything he says comes across in a pro town questioning way. Now I am going to transition to drazak. His vote on kush only caused confusion and was purely a slug fest with no real reasoning behind it. After being “caught out” as such by kville and stutters plus the kush argument he backs out and doesn’t comment. He hardly provides good reasons for his mistakes, Also he has a bad habit of calling kville useless. However enough of that I will provide posts and reasons. On September 06 2012 18:03 drazak wrote: My accusation wasn't out of nowhere, I made a read based on what happened, I reasoned, carefully. I saw that Kush wasn't scumhunting day 1. If you're not scumhunting, you're not furthering town, if you're not furthering town... you're mafia. I then saw kush slipped by overreacting to me. Feel free to poke holes in my actual reasoning instead of calling me scum for making a reasoned accusation. Kush wasn’t scum hunting day one? I’m a freaking unicycling unicorn. First his Kush isn’t scum hunting read is based on this. On September 05 2012 11:55 drazak wrote: I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches. Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush. ##Vote Kushm4sta But then his day one post was this On September 03 2012 21:24 drazak wrote: My best read is cubu. He's tried to throw suspiscion, he stopped posting when he had nobody to lay thin accusations on. Cubu has posted only with low content, low value posts, he hasn't had any real reads other than discussing statistics and how afk I was. I think Cubu isn't a great D1 lynch though, which is why he doesn't currently have my vote, if he continues to have such low content posts tomorrow, he will certainly have my vote. Cubu is someone we can try to analyze tomorrow and figure out if he really is mafia, we can't analyze kville, and if we wait to lynch kville it's not going to get better, we don't even have a baseline for him. To that point, I'm someone you can analyze D2, you have several posts by me, with fairly decent content. Even if kville isn't mafia, he isn't helping anyone. In addition, I felt that going for cubu would just be bandwagoning at this point, which as town doesn't help me at all, espescially considering I do have my own unique thoughts, which I have shared with everyone. The whole “even if kville isn’t mafia he isn’t helping anyone” isn’t this the same thing? They are both talking about lynching the worst townie however drazak covers himself better (something a scum would do over a town) refering to the bandwagon and trying to convince people he is town by pointing out he is town not just assuming everyone knows he is town. “which as town doesn't help me at all” This would be obvious if he was town. Anyway these are my thoughts on Drazak. Because of the lengh of this post I will save Krebs analises for my next post probably (if I find anything) My intuitive thoughts are “he has seemed town but he is saying some strange stuff that I need to look into.” I know I’ve given you kind of a hard time, but I like this post. It’s easy to comment on because you really managed to make it express it clearly. That doesn’t mean I agree with everything and I have some questions/thoughts (some of your points I simply don’t understand, but I’ll be leaving those aside for the moment): WeeTee/imcasey – I’m not as convinced as you are 1. Do you have meta reads on WeeTee playing as both townie and scum? Otherwise your meta read becomes a bit shakey. 2. About Kville’s argument, I don’t agree. Maybe you do given your meta, but the fact that he made himself one of the prime suspects d1 means he wasn’t “playing safe”. If he was townie and was worried about getting suspected, he would’ve tried to contribute more and better. 3. The meta read is still a just-trust-me-on-this-one read. While I would like to be able to just trust you, I can’t blindly do that. 4. I think it’s pretty clear imcasey is a newbie and in order to clear himself as townie, I encourage him to post as much as possible. Newbies are likely to slip up as they increase their activity. 5. This doesn’t mean I think imcasey will become a good d3 lynch. We would really like a lynch from which we can gain information. Since we’re in a terrible position where (if I understand the rules correctly) we might need to have three consecutive scum-lynches. I don’t see how the Combined posts/votes of WeeTee/imcasey will give us much info at a red flip. But if imcasey keeps a low activity level, he’ll be at risk later days if we get there. KillingTime – The case certainly has some good points 1. He has indeed been very non-committal on his scum reads. 2. His town reads are very “safe” as well. 3. “He makes no mention of scum hunting. Why? Because he doesn’t need to hunt scum, he is scum.” – This seems like a classic example of feeling guilty (because you are) and being trapped inside the thought process of a scum (typical newbie tell). 4. It’s still an open case for me and I haven’t done much research on my own. Stutters – I think you would like to think you have a good townie read 1. It kind of seems to me like your main reason for town clearing Stutters is because he was basically the first one on-board of your Killing case and helped blowing wind into your windmill. (is that even a saying?) 2. “He returns fire on killing time”, is that really a townie read for you? 3. It is possible he picked up on a misread of yours and took that as an opportunity to gain an ally while at the same time getting a townie lynched. 4. Hell, from my point-of-view you could even be working together. A conspiracy I know, I’m just saying any combo of t/t, s/t and s/s is possible as far as I’m concerned (although I don’t have scum lean on you). 5. He does ask a lot of questions, I’ll give him that. It’s a good sign but like I’ve said in previous posts, it doesn’t necessarily make him townie. I’m obviously conflicted, since I feel like the case on Killing is a pretty good one, but I’m not confident Stutters is a townie either. Both can’t be scum unless we have some epic leveling going on. Not only is epic leveling in itself unlikely, but it’d make no sense for Stutters to bus Killing considering the Killing wagon had little momentum before Stutters’ accusations. I think looking closer at Stutters answers to my questions can be helpful. Moreover, it’s almost as if Xatalos is slipping through the cracks, he’s another potential lynch we’re waiting to hear from. I’m definitely not set on who to lynch. We need to keep going, ask questions and see what develops. In the end we need to find the best possible lynch. The most likely scum isn’t necessarily the best possible lynch, because we need to take into account what information we gain given a red flip. I would also like to point out that we’ll likely only be at a 5 to 3 advantage tomorrow. It seems to me we pretty much have to form a consensus on who to vote for, or a last minute scum switch can cost us the game (barring some kind of blue role save). As of right now, the three main candidates for me are: Killing Xatalos Stutter I might add that I haven’t been totally convinced of the drazak case. I agree he’s made some weird cases and arguments, but he didn’t particularly strike me as scum. I haven’t read his filter though, he’s at best neutral to me. Kush and Kreb are still my only town reads. I don’t find drazak’s case against Kush convincing and still, no-one has commented on my town read logic. Kreb is a “feel read”, so take it fwiw (I’ve made a n2 post on this). I hope I’ll be here tomorrow. If so, my activity level might drop a little because I have a friend visiting over the weekend. I’ll try to find time to catch up whenever I can though. | ||
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