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On September 09 2012 02:37 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 02:35 DarthPunk wrote:On September 09 2012 02:27 Hapahauli wrote:
Thankfully things are getting active in here again, but I wanted to discuss the BKE fake-claim a bit.
I think all of us agree that the likely order of events last night consisted of double-stacking one person, while suicide bombing the other (between BC and DrH). BKE's watcher claim suggests that it was BC who got double-stacked and BM24 who got suicide-bombed.
Now unless something about the Day2 post suggests otherwise, this seems highly unlikely. BC was much more of a confirmed town (after outing Mattchew) than DrH was. To the average reader here, BC would seem like much more of a target for blue actions (watcher, medic, etc.) during the night. Isn't it much more likely for mafia to have suicide-bombed BC? There would be a much higher chance of blue's visiting BC after he caught the first mafia. I find it so unlikely that DrH was suicide bombed (over BC), and this is why I'm doubting the BKE claim. This is irrelevant and not evidence. Regardless of your own opinion, mafia could have Bombed DrH and NK BC. It is possible. and thus BKE's claim is possible. Your preconceptions on what you would have done does not necessarily reflect what others did, and thus this in no way disproves BKE's claim. I'm not disproving anything - I'm saying it's highly unlikely given the dynamics of town Day 1. I'm talking about likelihood here. If you disagree with this, tell me why instead of spouting this "irrelevant" nonsense.
Your interpretation of what is likely or not is based on your subjective perception of events. You started the wagon on BKE and thus your subjective perception of events is likely to be biased in a way that fits your case. If you want to talk about probability look at it this way.
We have no idea what the thought process behind the kills were. 2 people died. there is a 50% chance that each was a night kill target. Thus BKE claim is plausible.
But this is not relevant. What is relevant is the MOTIVATION.
Why would BKE claim watcher over other roles which are less verifiable (mad hatter) and why would he not say that he watched DrH rather than BC if, as you say, it was so obvious BC was the suicide target. It is natural to choose the most plausible chain of events if you are lying. If you are telling the truth... you say what actually happened even though this may make you look worse. (WIFOM i know but I think this is still relevant)
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On September 09 2012 02:43 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 02:31 Shady Sands wrote:On September 09 2012 02:28 austinmcc wrote:On September 09 2012 02:19 DarthPunk wrote:
@ Austin Are you 100% opposed to the Grush lynch? Would you vote for him in order to consolidate away from BKE? I am 100% opposed to a Grush lynch right now. (1) I don't think he's scummy. (2) I think he's an easy mislynch for mafia to push, and I don't like that he immediately floated to the top. (3) He'll be around. IF BKE was town, mafia was probably on him, at least some members. All yesterday, BKE was the lynch, ezpz. Then he claims watcher. Now, that plan is in the crapper because people are moving away. I swear there's a post from Ace somewhere saying that the worst thing that happen to you is scum is for just a random event to break up your plan. A vig shot on a player, a confirmable claim from your mislynch target, things that break up the flow of your plan and force confusion/panic, ruin your work. I can't find it now. But I'm pretty sure it exists, if you know where it is, bonus austinpoints. BKE's claim doesn't really do that. There's still plenty of time to scheme. BUT. BUT. If we also don't lynch Grush, that really throws things for a loop. If we can generate discussion, some new reads, watch reactions, that's a lot of info for town. It's almost like...not lynching Grush for info? How does everyone react, what are the other reads we get, etc. It changes mafia's target twice if they're both town (and we can actually find a scum or two to push). Their actions and responses are useful to us. Grush isn't pulling any strings here, you can lynch him later if you want to because you don't really have to worry about him being scum and influencing town, he doesn't take a leadership role. This is completely WIFOM. How can you say that the reason we don't lynch grush is because he's not in a town leadership role when BKE has much less towncred than him? Furthermore, I don't get what the first half of your post talking about a random event is supposed to refer to. Can you explain? This isn't really a random event. But I swear that quote exists about just...things you can't expect messing with scum plans. A vigi shooting someone you needed. A DT check on someone you needed. Someone picking at something and unraveling your plot. I think that's the sort of stuff Ace was talking about (I will go look for this, once I'm down sifting through Z-boson harder, just preoccupied right now and mainly typing, rather than looking at thread). But imagine...some things you see coming. X has a read on Y all game. You can mess with that. You can mess with claimed roles. You can shoot active and problematic people. You want to control the thread, control the lynches, whenever you need to (and maybe even when you don't). So you're more likely to...plan things? as scum. When are we bussing x, who are we going to push, how, which 3 are going to push x and who will push y instead, etc. Sudden events mess with those plans. This...isn't quite the same. But the fact that we had a lynch on BKE, then he claims and sparks discussion and town swaps to looking more at Grush, then town starts talking about BKE v. Grush v. Other options (hopefully more than just Z-Boson anyone have anything?) throws a wrench into the works of any plans. They had a day where they were just sitting back to lynch BKE, or setting him up (if he's town). Then that got interfered with. No problem, Grush is here. We can push a lynch onto Grush. Then that is maybe being interfered with. That's what I'm hoping to do. It's not...random. I can't even be sure both are town. But the less...the less town moves predictably, the less scum can do to control it? I'm not sure this is exactly true, but I'm kind of playing around with it in my head. So not random events messing with scum, but just...sudden changes in targets, multiple times over a day, MAY shake out some information.
You do realize that scum could just lurk like crazy and turn your "shake-up" plan into a way to exploit a weak divided town?
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yeah so i just read through za-bosom's filter. I agree with austin that there is stuff not to like there, but I think two things.
1. his case on goodkarma seems genuine. What I mean by that is it doesn't just seem like casual distancing, but rather an actual attempt to point out problems with his filter. Now, this doesn't mean that boson isn't mafia - they could have already known they were going to use the suicide bomb. But it seems a bit early to be saying 'bro your filter sucks and is inconsistent' in the thread rather than in the scum qt.
2. he hasn't really followed up his case on maverickx since the start of day2 - interesting.
Yeah so atm I'd kinda rather lynch bkexe, but in general I think boson is definitely someone to keep a sharp eye on.
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On September 09 2012 02:38 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 02:35 DarthPunk wrote:On September 09 2012 02:27 Hapahauli wrote:
Thankfully things are getting active in here again, but I wanted to discuss the BKE fake-claim a bit.
I think all of us agree that the likely order of events last night consisted of double-stacking one person, while suicide bombing the other (between BC and DrH). BKE's watcher claim suggests that it was BC who got double-stacked and BM24 who got suicide-bombed.
Now unless something about the Day2 post suggests otherwise, this seems highly unlikely. BC was much more of a confirmed town (after outing Mattchew) than DrH was. To the average reader here, BC would seem like much more of a target for blue actions (watcher, medic, etc.) during the night. Isn't it much more likely for mafia to have suicide-bombed BC? There would be a much higher chance of blue's visiting BC after he caught the first mafia. I find it so unlikely that DrH was suicide bombed (over BC), and this is why I'm doubting the BKE claim. This is irrelevant and not evidence. Regardless of your own opinion, mafia could have Bombed DrH and NK BC. It is possible. and thus BKE's claim is possible. Your preconceptions on what you would have done does not necessarily reflect what others did, and thus this in no way disproves BKE's claim. Scum presumably used 1 KP and bombed. 2nd KP wasnt used? or you think the Mafia shot ottoxlol on our behalf?
If you read Palmars post. Could have been a save and no one was notified.
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On September 09 2012 02:44 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 02:37 Hapahauli wrote:On September 09 2012 02:35 DarthPunk wrote:On September 09 2012 02:27 Hapahauli wrote:
Thankfully things are getting active in here again, but I wanted to discuss the BKE fake-claim a bit.
I think all of us agree that the likely order of events last night consisted of double-stacking one person, while suicide bombing the other (between BC and DrH). BKE's watcher claim suggests that it was BC who got double-stacked and BM24 who got suicide-bombed.
Now unless something about the Day2 post suggests otherwise, this seems highly unlikely. BC was much more of a confirmed town (after outing Mattchew) than DrH was. To the average reader here, BC would seem like much more of a target for blue actions (watcher, medic, etc.) during the night. Isn't it much more likely for mafia to have suicide-bombed BC? There would be a much higher chance of blue's visiting BC after he caught the first mafia. I find it so unlikely that DrH was suicide bombed (over BC), and this is why I'm doubting the BKE claim. This is irrelevant and not evidence. Regardless of your own opinion, mafia could have Bombed DrH and NK BC. It is possible. and thus BKE's claim is possible. Your preconceptions on what you would have done does not necessarily reflect what others did, and thus this in no way disproves BKE's claim. I'm not disproving anything - I'm saying it's highly unlikely given the dynamics of town Day 1. I'm talking about likelihood here. If you disagree with this, tell me why instead of spouting this "irrelevant" nonsense. I thought the same thing but than again, what's the point of claiming he watched BM24? If he's mafia he could as well just swapped it and made it the other way around. He could have easily said "sup dudes, watched BM24 yesterday and BC got suicide bombed" as frankly most people expected it that way. What I'm taking from this is that he's telling the truth about who got suicide bombed either way.If he's mafia he said that because he didn't even think about it the other way around and just claimed what really happened + a fake for himself. No need to lie about who got hit / suicide bombed. If anything that's just more chances to screw up somehow if someone tracked him or watched something else. If he's town he said that because it really happened that way.
Oh it could also be that he's an assassin if there are some in the game but if that's the case we shouldn't lynch him and just outsource the problem. If he's an assassin just screw him and let the other Assassin deal with him. No need to waste a lynch on that.
I could actually see that happening seeing the weird nature of this claim but there's no point in talking about that because as mentioned, if that's the case he'll die himself just fine lol.
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On September 09 2012 02:44 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 02:37 Hapahauli wrote:On September 09 2012 02:35 DarthPunk wrote:On September 09 2012 02:27 Hapahauli wrote:
Thankfully things are getting active in here again, but I wanted to discuss the BKE fake-claim a bit.
I think all of us agree that the likely order of events last night consisted of double-stacking one person, while suicide bombing the other (between BC and DrH). BKE's watcher claim suggests that it was BC who got double-stacked and BM24 who got suicide-bombed.
Now unless something about the Day2 post suggests otherwise, this seems highly unlikely. BC was much more of a confirmed town (after outing Mattchew) than DrH was. To the average reader here, BC would seem like much more of a target for blue actions (watcher, medic, etc.) during the night. Isn't it much more likely for mafia to have suicide-bombed BC? There would be a much higher chance of blue's visiting BC after he caught the first mafia. I find it so unlikely that DrH was suicide bombed (over BC), and this is why I'm doubting the BKE claim. This is irrelevant and not evidence. Regardless of your own opinion, mafia could have Bombed DrH and NK BC. It is possible. and thus BKE's claim is possible. Your preconceptions on what you would have done does not necessarily reflect what others did, and thus this in no way disproves BKE's claim. I'm not disproving anything - I'm saying it's highly unlikely given the dynamics of town Day 1. I'm talking about likelihood here. If you disagree with this, tell me why instead of spouting this "irrelevant" nonsense. I thought the same thing but than again, what's the point of claiming he watched BM24? If he's mafia he could as well just swapped it and made it the other way around. He could have easily said "sup dudes, watched BM24 yesterday and BC got suicide bombed" as frankly most people expected it that way. What I'm taking from this is that he's telling the truth about who got suicide bombed either way.If he's mafia he said that because he didn't even think about it the other way around and just claimed what really happened + a fake for himself. No need to lie about who got hit / suicide bombed. If anything that's just more chances to screw up somehow if someone tracked him or watched something else. If he's town he said that because it really happened that way.
Well said, and I guess this does explain why no blues were killed last night (since most of them probably targeted BC).
Given your analysis, I consider the claim to be null. He's telling the truth of what happened last night either way, and he'd have access to this information as blue or mafia.
I'm still going to be pushing for his lynch given the litany of scummy behavior in his filter - namely the Mattchew fail-bus which I think is indefensible.
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On September 09 2012 02:45 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 02:37 Hapahauli wrote:On September 09 2012 02:35 DarthPunk wrote:On September 09 2012 02:27 Hapahauli wrote:
Thankfully things are getting active in here again, but I wanted to discuss the BKE fake-claim a bit.
I think all of us agree that the likely order of events last night consisted of double-stacking one person, while suicide bombing the other (between BC and DrH). BKE's watcher claim suggests that it was BC who got double-stacked and BM24 who got suicide-bombed.
Now unless something about the Day2 post suggests otherwise, this seems highly unlikely. BC was much more of a confirmed town (after outing Mattchew) than DrH was. To the average reader here, BC would seem like much more of a target for blue actions (watcher, medic, etc.) during the night. Isn't it much more likely for mafia to have suicide-bombed BC? There would be a much higher chance of blue's visiting BC after he caught the first mafia. I find it so unlikely that DrH was suicide bombed (over BC), and this is why I'm doubting the BKE claim. This is irrelevant and not evidence. Regardless of your own opinion, mafia could have Bombed DrH and NK BC. It is possible. and thus BKE's claim is possible. Your preconceptions on what you would have done does not necessarily reflect what others did, and thus this in no way disproves BKE's claim. I'm not disproving anything - I'm saying it's highly unlikely given the dynamics of town Day 1. I'm talking about likelihood here. If you disagree with this, tell me why instead of spouting this "irrelevant" nonsense. Your interpretation of what is likely or not is based on your subjective perception of events. You started the wagon on BKE and thus your subjective perception of events is likely to be biased in a way that fits your case. If you want to talk about probability look at it this way. We have no idea what the thought process behind the kills were. 2 people died. there is a 50% chance that each was a night kill target. Thus BKE claim is plausible. But this is not relevant. What is relevant is the MOTIVATION. Why would BKE claim watcher over other roles which are less verifiable (mad hatter) and why would he not say that he watched DrH rather than BC if, as you say, it was so obvious BC was the suicide target. It is natural to choose the most plausible chain of events if you are lying. If you are telling the truth... you say what actually happened even though this may make you look worse. (WIFOM i know but I think this is still relevant)
if he was scum and actually delivered a kp on BC - whether they double stacked him or not - then claiming that he watched bc would make his claim proof against the possibility that he was tracked or that there was a real watcher on bc last night.
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On September 09 2012 02:47 strongandbig wrote:
yeah so i just read through za-bosom's filter. I agree with austin that there is stuff not to like there, but I think two things.
1. his case on goodkarma seems genuine. What I mean by that is it doesn't just seem like casual distancing, but rather an actual attempt to point out problems with his filter. Now, this doesn't mean that boson isn't mafia - they could have already known they were going to use the suicide bomb. But it seems a bit early to be saying 'bro your filter sucks and is inconsistent' in the thread rather than in the scum qt.
2. he hasn't really followed up his case on maverickx since the start of day2 - interesting.
Yeah so atm I'd kinda rather lynch bkexe, but in general I think boson is definitely someone to keep a sharp eye on.
Disagree on Z-Boson for now for three reasons:
#1 - GoodKarma's opening post was an FoS on Z-Boson
#2 - The GK/Z-Boson interaction seems reasonably genuine (they are not small, uninvolved conversations)
#3 - My own meta read of Z-Boson (from his mafia-meta in Newbie XXIV) suggests to me that he's town based on activity and casewriting.
All of this combined, and I'm leaning pretty heavily town on Z-Boson. I think there are many other lynch priorities over Z-Boson.
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On September 09 2012 02:51 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 02:45 DarthPunk wrote:On September 09 2012 02:37 Hapahauli wrote:On September 09 2012 02:35 DarthPunk wrote:On September 09 2012 02:27 Hapahauli wrote:
Thankfully things are getting active in here again, but I wanted to discuss the BKE fake-claim a bit.
I think all of us agree that the likely order of events last night consisted of double-stacking one person, while suicide bombing the other (between BC and DrH). BKE's watcher claim suggests that it was BC who got double-stacked and BM24 who got suicide-bombed.
Now unless something about the Day2 post suggests otherwise, this seems highly unlikely. BC was much more of a confirmed town (after outing Mattchew) than DrH was. To the average reader here, BC would seem like much more of a target for blue actions (watcher, medic, etc.) during the night. Isn't it much more likely for mafia to have suicide-bombed BC? There would be a much higher chance of blue's visiting BC after he caught the first mafia. I find it so unlikely that DrH was suicide bombed (over BC), and this is why I'm doubting the BKE claim. This is irrelevant and not evidence. Regardless of your own opinion, mafia could have Bombed DrH and NK BC. It is possible. and thus BKE's claim is possible. Your preconceptions on what you would have done does not necessarily reflect what others did, and thus this in no way disproves BKE's claim. I'm not disproving anything - I'm saying it's highly unlikely given the dynamics of town Day 1. I'm talking about likelihood here. If you disagree with this, tell me why instead of spouting this "irrelevant" nonsense. Your interpretation of what is likely or not is based on your subjective perception of events. You started the wagon on BKE and thus your subjective perception of events is likely to be biased in a way that fits your case. If you want to talk about probability look at it this way. We have no idea what the thought process behind the kills were. 2 people died. there is a 50% chance that each was a night kill target. Thus BKE claim is plausible. But this is not relevant. What is relevant is the MOTIVATION. Why would BKE claim watcher over other roles which are less verifiable (mad hatter) and why would he not say that he watched DrH rather than BC if, as you say, it was so obvious BC was the suicide target. It is natural to choose the most plausible chain of events if you are lying. If you are telling the truth... you say what actually happened even though this may make you look worse. (WIFOM i know but I think this is still relevant) if he was scum and actually delivered a kp on BC - whether they double stacked him or not - then claiming that he watched bc would make his claim proof against the possibility that he was tracked or that there was a real watcher on bc last night.
Wrong. Obviously they would send GK to kill BC/DrH as well as suicide. Which is exactly what BKE claims happened. this only checks out if they double stacked KP on BC.
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Regardless of what you believe about his claim, why isn't BKE actively participating in this discussion? This looks really scummy.
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4.00am this is looking really sluggish. I don't want to Lynch BKE. can we get some concensus on an alternative?
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Yea ... so I don't understand why people think a watcher claim absolves all the evidence against him prior to the claim. He is totally ignoring Hapa's case - there is no adequate explanation for his contradictions. It is extremely bad play to excuse scum just because they claim. Scum can lie, and it's what I'd expect from a cornered scum who can't properly defend himself.
Furthermore, that doesn't even include the validity of the claim itself.
Consider his claim true. Then GK delivered 1KP to BC.
Then GK must have bombed into BM24 (as a vig shot on him or bombing into Ottoxlol is near impossible).
1KP is missing and must have been protected via medic / jailkeep, who chose to protect someone other than BC / BM24.
Scum thought it is a good idea to 1KP to BC, Bomb BM24, and 1KP to someone else.
It is much more likely that he is a liar and we should just lynch him.
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I still don't buy the BKE claim.
Anyhow, Shady Sand's meta has been completely off from the games where he was town. In both the games I saw him as town, I felt like punching him because he wouldn't stop talking about his weird reads, and now he's all-out lurker.
Will go over some filters to present some alternatives.
I've backed off of Maverick for now, due to BKE, and because we (me and hapa) were getting split from actually pursuing scum and it was being more of a setback and counter-productive. I still support a maverick lynch now, but I will not emphasize on it right now. My main concern right now is validating BKE's claim or not.
Also, I don't have experience with grush, but his play is not pro-town, that much we can say . (makes non-sense posts, sheeps mindlessly other players, doesn't make cases, etc.)
@austinmcc
Hmmm, so I seem to be scummy for... not answering back the answers to some questions that I myself brought up? rofl
I've just gotten here an hour ago and am going through the thread, it's not like I'm on 24/7.
Why don't you tell us your thoughts on toad instead, wouldn't that be more pro-town?
The rest of your "case", you just narrate my post history. Also, the timing of your case is terrible and completely anti-town. The town focus is to believe or not to believe in BKE and you attack one of the most active town members hours before the deadline.
If still you insist on making a case on me instead of analyzing the real candidates here, at least don't make a narrative from my posting history and actually draw some conclusions as to why I would be mafia.
@toad
Of course I didn't read the whole thing. Why would I do that if all I wanted was your meta? I also didn't read the entirety of your filter, because even THAT was too much. Just skimmed over your posts, reading your main cases and that pony image wall of text you posted.
I still don't buy some of your answers. I will go over some other filters for now, because I don't think you are a realistic lynch choice for today.
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EBWOP
In case I wasn't clear:
My first lynch choice as of now, is BKE. Like slOosh said, he still has a LOT to answer for.
The others I mentioned are next-in-line with my top scum suspicions, for now.
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I don't like how BKE has gone quiet. I need to sleep and it looks doubtful that we can't get a switch happening anyway.
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ok. I am out. Please consider what austin, toad and others have said about BKE. and consider my case on grush and his subsequent posts. night all.
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Going back to BKE. As mentioned I've got to leave now and I might not be able to be back before the deadline and the Grush-lynch I'd prefere is not going to happen.
BKE is still a good lynch due to everything besides the claim, it's just that I'd say a grush lynch is better because he's equally scummy without the off-chance of hitting a blue, but a grush lynch is not not going to happen.
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On September 09 2012 03:06 DarthPunk wrote:
I don't like how BKE has gone quiet. I need to sleep and it looks doubtful that we can't get a switch happening anyway.
I seriously hope that if BKE is actually town, he shows up. If I am a blue, and I am set to be lynched, I would definitely be answering to the cases against me left and right. Going AWOL is a scummy trait (i.e. mattchew).
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On September 09 2012 03:10 Z-BosoN wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 03:06 DarthPunk wrote:
I don't like how BKE has gone quiet. I need to sleep and it looks doubtful that we can't get a switch happening anyway.
I seriously hope that if BKE is actually town, he shows up. If I am a blue, and I am set to be lynched, I would definitely be answering to the cases against me left and right. Going AWOL is a scummy trait (i.e. mattchew).
Agreed. Switching back to BKE.
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On September 09 2012 03:08 Toadesstern wrote:
Going back to BKE. As mentioned I've got to leave now and I might not be able to be back before the deadline and the Grush-lynch I'd prefere is not going to happen.
BKE is still a good lynch due to everything besides the claim, it's just that I'd say a grush lynch is better because he's equally scummy without the off-chance of hitting a blue, but a grush lynch is not not going to happen.
Why are you so intent on not lynching grush? Do you think his play has been pro-town or are you familiar with his town meta?
Actually I don't understand this post at all. You are saying a grush lynch is better, but it is not not going to happen?
So... BKE is a better lynch, with grush being a better lynch? wtf do you mean
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EPT
