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On August 09 2012 08:02 marvellosity wrote:
ugh this Forumite stuff is soooo dense.
What do you mean by dense? Also, I'd like to hear who you currently think is most likely scum.
On August 09 2012 07:34 Forumite wrote:
I thought leaving him to wonder what he had done wrong for a while was better, that might also give me a few more posts to build a case on, making it stronger once finally revealed. I didn´t see a need to reveal everything right away, so I didn´t.
For some reason, I find this quote extremely funny. Just thought I'd point it out. I'm really not impressed by Forumite's explanation, and as prplhz pointed out, the line about "just testing my scumsense" seems like another contradictory attempt at an explanation.
I'll be afk for the next 2 hours or so.
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On August 09 2012 08:28 marvellosity wrote:
For when you return - please talk about Mordanis' case on shiaopi.
I'm not sure if you want to know how the case affects my opinion of Mordanis or how it affects my opinion of Shiaopi. Here are my opinions on the validity of each point in the case:
accusation that Shiaopi's first post is scummy+ Show Spoiler +On August 09 2012 05:38 Mordanis wrote:He starts the game off with a really bad post. + Show Spoiler +On August 08 2012 00:08 ShiaoPi wrote:
Well well, let's get started!
Skip policytalking, we all know lurkers suck, you should not lie etc. etc. LiquidTomb's fallen demand justice, so let's go hammer some goblins.
As the first post of any kind, you have to think about its purpose. Regardless of how a game progresses, it always starts with policy-talking. There is simply nothing to talk about before this. Really, what do people talk about at the beginning of a game if there is no policy talk? I see this as anti-discussion, which obviously helps scum. Furthermore, by posting zero content while coming out against policy, Shiao is trying to grab town cred. Trying to gain town's trust seems more scum motivated than town-motivated. Town wants scum found, doesn't really care if one VT dies in the process. The life of any scum is much more valued though, so survival is much more important. This makes town trust much more valuable to scum than to town. Overall, this is pretty suspicious. I think Mordanis makes a couple of valid points. I agree that Shiaopi's first post discouraged discussion. As I said before, Shiaopi's first post also seems uncharacteristically brazen for a relatively newbie player starting off a normal mini. I could see this as an attempt to 'grab town cred' although those aren't the words I would use. I do think Mordanis (intentionally or not) overplays the importance of these points. I wouldn't describe Shiaopi's first post as "pretty suspicious". Maybe a bit concerning, but that is all. The fluff about how it is important for scum to gain town's trust is just that -- fluff.
accusation that Shiaopi's scumhutning is scummy+ Show Spoiler +On August 09 2012 05:38 Mordanis wrote:
My problem with this is that he is not hunting for mistakes, not scum-slips or scum motivations. Everyone makes mistakes, so looking for mistakes seems like a really bad way to hunt for scum. Now in my previous games, I'd have dismissed this as an inexperienced townie who simply doesn't know how to hunt scum. Shiao does not fit this however. He has played several non-newbie games, which means that he has much more experience than I and Keir. Should he not then be capable of hunting scum via analysis, and not pushing for a lynch based on bad logic? Mordanis says that bad logic isn't necessarily scummy. This is a view he earlier shared when asking CL was equating my own "bad logic" with scumminess. I agree with Mordanis that bad logic is rarely a good scumtell. However, I really don't think Shiaopi's accusation on Mordanis is based on bad logic. Shiaopi's accusations on Mordanis are wishy/washiness, flip-flopping, and self-contradiction, which are all different from bad logic, and are often legitamate scumtells. So, I don't think Mordanis's argument here is very good.
Mordanis goes on to discuss some more fluff about trust.
The fact that Mordanis directly contradicted his earlier conjecture that Shiaopi's first post is not scummy is somewhat suspicious, but I like that he gave a reasonable explanation for the contradiction only like 10 minutes or so after being called out.
I really don't have any strong feelings about this case, what it says about Mordanis, or what it says about Shiaopi. You, marv, described this case as 'atrocious'. I agree that it is unconvincing, but I don't think Mordanis is a great scumhunter or anything (no offense to Mordanis) so I don't think that making unconvincing cases is a scumtell against Mordanis.
My overall thoughts on Mordanis+ Show Spoiler +
I'm thinking town on Mordanis.
-- His stuff about "Don't tell the scum how to survive" is something he actually feels strong about. He has talked about it both in discussion about XIV and in-thread in another NMM where he was town
-- He assumed a roleclaim from one of Keirathi's posts in another NMM that wasn't at all a roleclaim. Idk why he sees roleclaims everywhere he goes, but his thoughts about my first post seem sincere enough.
-- His early question to CL gives me a townie feel. Questioning a smurfing vet so early in the game would be a bit gutsy as scum, and I think his question is valid.
My overall thoughts on Shiaopi+ Show Spoiler +
I'm suspicious of Shiaopi. Not really because of anything that mordanis said in his case, though. I don't want to write a full case on Shiaopi right now because I have more important things to do (like figure out what to do about the Forumite and prplhz situations). Here are my reasons for suspicion in brief:
-- first post a bit concerning
-- I already said how I took issue with him objecting to a town plan by stating "suboptimal" scum counterstrats
-- I think his case on Mordanis is quite a stretch
-- some other stuff he says about Mordanis seems suspicious to me
Also, why is the thread so quiet right now? Where is everybody? It's 12 hours until lynch and most of us have to sleep through a good portion of that time.
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@CL
Wait what? Will you be back by the deadline or not? If not, I ask that you consolidate onto Forumite, because you said he is scummy, and he stands a good chance of being lynched today, unlike Mordanis.
Also, how likely do you think prplhz is to be scum?
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on prplhz
suspicions against him+ Show Spoiler +
me -- rather minor suspicion based on one post
forumite -- orignally: prplhz is null. now: wants to lynch prplhz
custos -- prplhz raised an eyebrow
risk.nuke -- prplhz has done nothing
marv -- votes him essentially for lurking
DYH -- votes him essentially for lurking as far as I can tell
HiroPro -- votes him for lurking (based on meta)
keirathi -- for lurking
Lynching prplhz would be a lurker lynch. In general, I really dislike lurker lynches, because in my experience, lurkers are town just as often as anyone else. I'd rather lynch somebody I have an actual read on. Looking at prplhz's filter from this game, I see nothing that makes me think he is town, and only a bit of minorly suspicious stuff: unconstrutive posting, lurky. IMO, lurking in and of itself is only mildly suspicious. Just because someone is busy and/or disinterested doesn't mean that they are scum.
The only reason I am not strongly against a prplhz lynch is HiroPro's post about prplhz meta. As HiroPro says, prplhz does seem to show a lot more interest in games where he is town than in games where is scum. So, I agree that prplhz's behavior is suspicious. But, I still feel uneasy about lynching somebody off meta alone, and prplhz has pledged to contribute more in future. Isn't it possible that he was actually just quite busy?
In summary, I agree that prplhz is suspicious, but I don't think he's our best lynch.
I still think Forumite is more likely to flip scum than not. I'll probably be making another post on him to try to convince you guys.
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@Mordanis
From what I know about you, I just don't think you write the most convincing cases (as either town or scum). As to how good you are at actually identifying scum when you are town, I really have no idea.
-- I found your case on hegeo in XIV unconvincing
-- Here are cases from NMM XXI that I found unconvincing
+ Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote:Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game: Mordanis's's case on KeirathiK (for some reason your name is really hard for me to type) began this game by virtually claiming Town RB. + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 05:41 Keirathi wrote:
First things first:
If we have a town roleblocker, I think its best not to use your role early. You generally have as much chance of hurting a teamate as you do a scum. I'm not saying to NEVER use it, but think carefully and only use it if you are reasonably sure that you are blocking a scum.
Some policy discussion:
Lynch All Liars - I'm of the opinion that there are very, very few cases where lying as a townie is beneficial to town. With that said, there ARE cases where it is a realistic option, so I think blanket policy lynching is a fairly bad thing. Case-by-case basis.
Lynch All Lurkers - As much as lurking hurts town, I feel like at least in newbie games, lurking is almost guaranteed. I encourage everyone to try as hard as they can to avoid lurking sot hat we won't have to discuss this later. Lurking as a townie hurts town. Please don't do it. Again, case-by-case basis.
Are all roleblocks notified, or only people with power roles?
I've seen games where it works both ways, so best to clarify early.
. Now this may have been a case of extreme newbiness, which would be understandable, but Mr. K has played in at least 2 other games, so I believe he knew how this post would be interpreted. This brings up 3 possibilities: 1: Mr. K is VT, and he is trying to "take one for the team". He knows that the scum will see this post and read him blue, and he'll die tonight instead of a real blue. If this were to happen, he'd have helped town. If he gets lynched today, it'll be bad for town, but it will be deal-with-able. 2: Mr. K is actually townie RB. Perhaps he is trying to make his "claim" so obvious the scum will think option 1 is happening. Trying to hide out in the open. If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. That said, he implied that he wouldn't want to use it N1 anyway, so the options are virtually the same. 3: Mr. K is scum, and is trying to use this as means to get himself out of trouble. If he ever gets some heat brought to him, he just says "Dude, I basically claimed town RB, I don't think its a good idea to lynch me" The claim also puts pressure on any real blues to claim, and when everyone claims, a claim isn't worth anything. Basically, this post seems mildly non-protown, and it gives him a way to defend himself. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And if this option is the case, scum aren't killing him tonight. Of these three, option 2 seems by far the least probable. So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Still, its pretty early so I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now. Last thing: I have to go to work now, and I'll be back in probably 5 hours (rakin in the cash makin pizza), just FYI.
+ Show Spoiler +On July 28 2012 06:36 Mordanis wrote:I'm starting to get a really bad feeling about Shady. Remember his post that said that no game in 20 lynched scum D1? + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 09:02 Shady Sands wrote:
So pretty much, I looked through about 20 mafia games and found not a single night one lynch resulting in a red kill. This suggests one thing:
Day 1 scumhunting actually has a lower success rate than a random day 1 lynch. If the lynches had been truly random, then maybe 20-30% of the games should have had day 1 lynches turn up red, but none of them did. Here are the D1 lynches from several games: NMM XXI: blue NMM XX: red NMM XIX: blue NMM XVIII: green NMM XVII: red NMM XVI: blue (I couldn't find XV or XIV, so I chose to go to the SNMMs) SNMM XI: red SNMM X: green SNMM IX: green So we have 3 blues lynched, 3 VT lynched, and 3 scum lynched. So it would appear that in Newbie mini mafia games, there is about a 1/3 chance of lynching scum D1. With 3/13 chance a random lynch would hit scum (~24%), and historically a 1/3 chance of hitting scum through hunting, the choice is clear. This is for future reference really, as we're already hunting. But this brings up the fact that Shady almost certainly lied. Now there is sometimes a reason for a townie to lie. If it opens up an avenue for them to discover scum, or take one for the team, or accomplishes another goal it can be a boon to lie to the town. On the other hand, by suggesting that scum hunting D1 is useless, Shady is 1) discouraging discussion (why discuss when it only lowers the probability of hitting scum?), 2) stalling the game (mafia wants to stall as long as possible. they use their kp regardless of where our lynch ends up), and 3) trying to influence newbies' thinking (if analysis/scum hunt isn't the main priority, then mafia get off free for mistakes while being able to penalize some other player. This goes with stalling). In short, Shady lied in a pretty baldfaced manner, and the lie only serves the interest of mafia. Also, after reading through Obvious's filter last game, I saw that his behavior was almost identical to Golbat's. Golbat, you need to contribute, because if you don't, you're going to be looking even scummier. But I have seen almost identical play from a townie (Obvious was lynched D1 though), so for now I am going to switch my vote. ##Unvote
##Vote: Shady_Sands
-- I was also unimpressed by your case on Shiaopi this game
So sorry if I've insulted you, but I've read through a few of your cases(as scum, town, and unknown alignment), and of the cases I've looked at, none look very convincing. Hence why I don't think you are scum just because of one questionable case on Shiaopi.
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EBWOP: To clarify, I didn't mean to say that you are a bad townie or that you make bad reads. I just don't expect to be wowed by your cases.
+ Show Spoiler +For what it's worth, I thought you played a fine scum game in NMM XIV and you had me fooled. Balancing out a criticism with a compliment here <3
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@keir, mordanis
whoops didn't realize it was still going.
Gah you're making me feel really bad lol. I think I came off as more harsh than I meant to. OK basically, I find a LOT of cases to be unconvincing, and Mordanis isn't a superstar vet, so one unconvincing case doesn't make me think he is scum, as marv was kinda suggesting it might.
If the same case was made by marv/gonzaw/HiroPro, I might see it as a cause for concern, but I don't expect the same cases from Mordanis as I do from those players.
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Further suspicious behavior by Forumite
his willingness to throw suspicion around+ Show Spoiler +I find it suspicious when a player states suspicions of many other players, but either doesn't have townreads, or is unwilling to defend townreads. If Forumite is town, he should have some townreads that he is willing to defend. But, I feel like Forumite is supporting any lynch but his own in an effort to survive: -- mordanis: forumite agreed with shiaopi's case on him and expressed interest in lynching him -- shiaopi: forumite is currently null on shiaopi -- risk.nuke: forumite called out risk.nuke for lurking -- prplhz: forumite is supposedly confident that prplhz is scum I find Forumite's vote on prplhz especially suspicious. See these quotes: On August 08 2012 10:39 Forumite wrote:
On prplhz
Right now I´m in danger of falling into the OMGUS-trap, because the only thing I´ve gotten from him is the greeting and him calling me out. prplhz calling me out makes me think there´s something wrong with MY play, which makes prplhz a nulltell. On August 09 2012 03:57 Forumite wrote:
With how the game looks right now, I want to lynch prplhz or mord. Prplhz doesn't play anything like I'm used to seing him play (as town), and mord is lurking too much for his few big but empty posts.
On August 09 2012 08:53 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 07:53 prplhz wrote:On August 09 2012 07:34 Forumite wrote:[...] On August 09 2012 06:46 prplhz wrote:
Yes I will contribute more, no I will not give you any reason other than the very generic "I'm busy" (because I don't think that it's fair when people bring things into mafia that don't belong in mafia). I´m still waiting for your contribution, and your answer to my latest post. Your excuse is a lie, you were not testing out your reads. You are now trying to take credit for something which you inadvertently caused which makes no sense at all. You appear to be overly worried about what people think about you and your explanations don't make sense. This is why you are the scummiest in the thread. Yeah, this isn´t the prplhz I´m used to. I can take the fact that you think I´m scum, but I can´t understant why you are not reading what I write and are deliberately misunderstand things. Do you really think I´m trying to take town-credit for being the cause of a discussion about wether or not I´m scum? I don´t think you have any interest in this game at all, you are among the top candidates for a lynch and your defence is nonexistant. Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 06:19 prplhz wrote:
I don't like most of the votes on me, it seems like they're just picking an easy target in a lurkish person which is silly (at least so early on in the day). You are an easy target because you are scummy, and you haven´t tried to change anyones mind about you since returning, you´d rather throw some suspicion around and hope it blows over. I was ready to vote you earlier when you had posted twice in total, now you are back and I´m even more sure that you are scum. ##Vote prplhz 1) I grow weary of pointing out Forumite's blatant self-contradictions, but originally, after prplhz's first two posts, Forumite lists prplhz as a nulltell. Then suddenly, without any new posts from prplhz, Forumite wants to lynch prplhz or mord. And later, Forumite clarifies that prplhz actually did seem scummy from the first two posts alone. Blatant contradiction. 2) I think his vote on prplhz is way too confident. I don't see anything in prplhz's behavior that justifies such confidence that prplhz is scum. This is slightly scummy on its own, and moreso after considering Forumite's meta, which I will address shortly.
suspicion on meta+ Show Spoiler +Here are some personal notes I made myself on Forumite's meta: + Show Spoiler +
SCUM FORTUMITE (source: wheel of fortune)
nitpicks some dumb policy stuff
tunnels an easy target hard
likes to point out bad town play
gives some helpful blue advice
"who is scum and where are the lurkers?"
acts very sure about his easy case
casts a rather small net.
TOWN FORTUMITE(source: arkham city (vig))
casts wider net
willing to change opinions
less sure about everything
hepful policy talk
I just compared his filter this game to my notes, and I definitely see more similarity to his scum meta than his townie meta. Disagreeing with other people's policy ideas in WoF: + Show Spoiler +On April 22 2012 07:15 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2012 07:08 prplhz wrote:
SamuelLJackson needs to sign their posts and you need to show that you're actually two people playing for town. You're likely going to be the strongest town player and I expect that to show in your play and I'm gonna complain about any weird stuff from you because, no. Not following, why do they need to sign their posts? Doesn´t that defeat the point of having a hydra-account? On April 22 2012 07:27 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2012 07:17 prplhz wrote:
Uh, because then we know who said what, duh. Do you have a problem with them signing their posts?
When I say "need" I don't mean that it's a game rule or anything, it's just something I want them to do to show transparency. Otherwise there can be big discussion about "Oh, not that wasn't be that was him who said that I don't know what it's about". Signing posts is never going to hurt anyone and it might prevent a great deal of confusion so they're going to sign their posts.
Agree? Partly agree. It´s good in most situations to know who said what, because otherwise it´s impossible to read their play due to old games. On the other hand, just like in Couples Therapy Mafia, they are both responsible for what the other one do. They can´t blame the other player, so most of the time I´ll ignore who said what. On April 22 2012 07:49 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2012 07:27 prplhz wrote:Oh you mean like "they're going to talk to each other and agree on some opinion and then they're going to post it"? I doubt that's a realistic scenario, they're both going to have opinions and they're not necessarily going to be the same. And even though sandroba can be really persuasive, Toadesstern knows that this game essentially revolves around him. They're both going to have opinions. We hydra'd that time in that Palmar game and I don't believe we agreed on a single thing?  No matter what, there's no harm in them signing their posts, if they both have the same opinion then they can just sign with both their names or whatever. How do you feel about random lynching day1 based on sports results? I know, they will probably not agree on everything, I don´t expect them to, but if one of them makes a mistake then the other one is probably just playing better. I agree that they might as well sign their posts, I just disagree with how we use that information. On April 23 2012 05:59 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2012 05:33 Ace wrote:
Well I didn't read wbg's last game, but s&b has a point Forumite. I've said it many times in the past that a pair of Masons are the most dangerous roles that a Scum team has to deal with in most games. He also alluded to Masons fast claiming Day 1 in the last game and wrecking shit. I'd be suspicious of any player that doesn't even want to talk about going this route also.
As for your encryption plan that makes sense S&B but Samuel brings up a good point: They aren't guaranteed to be in the game. Let's not make ourselves do extra work that probably won't pay off. For now the fact that anyone even lazily reading the thread knows that a Mason claim is very likely by Day 2 is good enough. I don´t have the same experience with masons as you. In the games I´ve played, confirmed townies die soon after getting confirmed. In that light, it might be better to wait until day 3 to claim, and breadcrumb in a foolproof way so that if one mason die before the claim, the other one can confirm himself. During D3, when there are fewer people alive, one confirmed makes a much bigger difference. On April 23 2012 06:51 Forumite wrote:
I think I see what you mean, giving scum 2 more targets will give them way too many to shoot down with all the veterans here, especially if one or two in the mason pair are newbies who would never normally attract bullets. In that case, why wait until tomorrow? Why not claim now in that case? Why tomorrow? We are most likely one less player tomorrow, maybe 2. 2 confirmed among 12 is not far from 2 confirmed among 14, it´s not enough to single out scum.
The way I see it, either we give scum more targets, or we make sure to get as many confirmed town as possible. If the first, then the masons should claim now, if the second, then we wait until day 3 and have the masons and DTs claim all at once. Disagreeing with other people's policy ideas in DF: + Show Spoiler +On August 08 2012 03:17 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On August 08 2012 01:12 ShiaoPi wrote:
Well, I understand if you understand me not taking it serious at all then. That´s okay, you are more likely to scumslip if you don´t think there´s any danger. On Double-lynching: I´m opposed to double-lynching because of the danger of gobbos manipulating the vote, either to save their buddy or to kill two town at once. I´m also opposed to it because of the ease of blending in when the discussion is about a package of 2 people dying, when there are two candidates players can just say "Meh, I don´t really want to lynch B but since it´s the only way to get you all to agree on lynching A, I guess we´ll lynch both together". I will not agree to double-lynching unless there´s a VERY good reason to double-lynch. I will vote to hammer anyone who creates a double-lynch without the second candidate flipping gobbo. On August 08 2012 06:03 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On August 08 2012 04:28 HiroPro wrote:
Eh I'd only ever consider double lynching in sciberbia's 3/1 scenario (or a 2/1 if it ever comes up). Anywhere else I don't see the benefit.
Thoughts on using Tracker as an innocent child style role instead (if we have one)? It's fairly worthless in this setup since it can only track medic/RB and mafia will know whether or not a tracker is present. You mean claim, and if counterclaimed (by scum or the real tracker) we kill them both? I don´t think it´s a good plan. A Tracker is not as good as a DT, but he´s not useless. An innocent child will just get killed if he claims D1. The Tracker can track the one doing the nightkill and the roleblocker, and know if his target is a Doc (no roleblock claim and survives), so basically a DT that misses the one scum that does nothing. Can scum send the roleblocker to perform the nightkill AND roleblock even when there are other goblins alive, thereby reducing the number of people at risk of being Tracked? (Only usefull in a Tracker+Doc setup, but still) Acting very sure about easy targets in WoF: + Show Spoiler +He basically just tunnels MrZentor for 2 days. Here are a few examples of his confidence in the read: On April 22 2012 11:08 Forumite wrote:
You on the other hand are grasping at straws, you make a weak case on prplhz to divert attention from yourself, and you are generally not acting town (why DID you vote yourself?). It´s very, very early in the game, and only about a third of the players have shown themselves so far, but your play so far scream scum.
##Vote MrZentor On April 22 2012 20:22 Forumite wrote:
I know most scum wouldn´t start the game like he does, because it´s too obvious, but that can´t be a defence of those who actually do. On April 27 2012 03:21 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 01:30 MrZentor wrote:Don't worry; I won't change my vote. If you want a mislynch, you're going to get one. I just hope town can make a comeback after my death. + Show Spoiler +Considering town has prphlz and forumite, I doubt that that's going to happen. If I had any doubts about you, you silenced them with that post. There is no way you can be Town, not after the way you´ve been playing. Acting very sure about easy targets in DF: + Show Spoiler +Shiaopi is maybe not an easy target, but certainly not a hard one. On August 08 2012 06:07 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On August 08 2012 05:38 prplhz wrote:
Hey didn't read thread yet can anybody tell me who is scum? Yay, prplhz! ShiaoPi looks like scum, just read the few introposts. And also with prplhz: On August 09 2012 08:53 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 07:53 prplhz wrote:On August 09 2012 07:34 Forumite wrote:[...] On August 09 2012 06:46 prplhz wrote:
Yes I will contribute more, no I will not give you any reason other than the very generic "I'm busy" (because I don't think that it's fair when people bring things into mafia that don't belong in mafia). I´m still waiting for your contribution, and your answer to my latest post. Your excuse is a lie, you were not testing out your reads. You are now trying to take credit for something which you inadvertently caused which makes no sense at all. You appear to be overly worried about what people think about you and your explanations don't make sense. This is why you are the scummiest in the thread. Yeah, this isn´t the prplhz I´m used to. I can take the fact that you think I´m scum, but I can´t understant why you are not reading what I write and are deliberately misunderstand things. Do you really think I´m trying to take town-credit for being the cause of a discussion about wether or not I´m scum? I don´t think you have any interest in this game at all, you are among the top candidates for a lynch and your defence is nonexistant. Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 06:19 prplhz wrote:
I don't like most of the votes on me, it seems like they're just picking an easy target in a lurkish person which is silly (at least so early on in the day). You are an easy target because you are scummy, and you haven´t tried to change anyones mind about you since returning, you´d rather throw some suspicion around and hope it blows over. I was ready to vote you earlier when you had posted twice in total, now you are back and I´m even more sure that you are scum. ##Vote prplhz His 'confidence' that prplhz is scum in particular is what I find really suspicious. It looks a lot like his 'confidence' that MrZentor was scum from WoF. I was expecting to find more similarities, but I guess that's it on meta. Anyway, the best example of a town game I could find of him (Arkham city) looks significantly different.
To summarize, here is everything I find suspicious about Forumite:
-- his contradictory logic about not explaining his read on shiaopi due to wanting shiaopi to scumslip
-- forumite kept talking about his scum read on shiaopi even after he supposedly realized that his case wasn't good
-- his reaction to prplhz calling him scummy was to assume that prplhz must be right and his case on shiaopi must be bad
-- the post to me in which he calls his own case bad and casts doubt on his own scumhunting ability
-- overall tone toward vets and active players is a bit too passive/friendly IMO
-- contradicts himself about his initial views on prplhz
-- doesn't have any townread that he is willing to defend from lynching. I don't think he has explicitly disagreed with any scumread or case presented thus far
-- acts very sure that prplhz is scum. Unjustifiably so, IMO
-- fits his scum meta better than his townie meta IMO
@DYH
I don't really see Forumite as trying to push a scum agenda. I just see him trying to fake being a townie (aka survive), but not doing a good enough of a job. His contradictions make me think he has been lying about reads, reasons for reads, and reasons for changing reads. Scum don't have reads, so they need to lie about that kind of stuff. Not defending other people is a scum trait: he doesn't care who gets lynched as long as it isn't him. Being friendly toward vets and casting doubt on his own scumhunting are both ways to try to gain friends, but don't have good townie motivations.
I still think Forumite has a pretty good chance of being scum. It's possible I'm wrong about him, but I don't think I am.
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I'm going to bed. I'll be up very shortly before the deadline.
My views on anyone that might be in contention for lynching:
very suspicious: Forumite
suspicious: prplhz, shiaopi
not suspicious: Mordanis
I agree with Mordanis that this D1 has been a bit frustrating. It's actually remarkable how little our 'vets' have done today now that I think about it. prplhz, risk.nuke, CL, HiroPro, and marv to an extent.
On the upside, I think we have a pretty good shot at lynching scum tomorrow, especially if we lynch forumite, but I could also see us hitting scum with prplhz.
Good night.
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we are lynching forumite by 1 vote? wow
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fuck......
sorry guys. sorry Forumite. gg
ugh this feels terrible. I was really expecting him to flip red and to be happy about this all day. I hope I can make up for this..
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Talk to me HiroPro. Just got home.
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EBWOP: Actually I'm off to play tennis. sorry lol -- You can talk with CL instead. I'll be back in about 3 hours at which time I plan to catch up on everything I haven't read, reread everyone's filters, and reevaluate my preliminary reads.
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gg marv
Looking back at marv's filter, I think there's a good possibility he was an intentional watcher-snipe. Keep in mind that scum knew this was a watcher setup, and then look at these quotes from marv:
On August 08 2012 00:50 marvellosity wrote:
Relatedly, and it should go without saying but sometimes I see people not adhere to this, everyone must let town know when they've been roleblocked.
On August 08 2012 06:28 marvellosity wrote:
that's fucking ridiculous. so you have one setup - cop, which is already by far the most powerful
then you neuter the other two setups completely by denying watcher/tracker of like 90% of their power.
wtf is that about.
On August 08 2012 08:47 marvellosity wrote:
I think postulating about a setup we only have 1/3 of the time with various unknown lynches/nightkills in the way is quite an unproductive use of thread space. Even in your post you say "for things without Hiro realises" without expanding upon them. Looks like crap designed to spam up the thread.
Also, apparently everybody noticed a difference in marv's scumhunting from what we were expecting. He seemed much more restrained in calling out scum than he did in my last game with him where he was VT.
In conclusion, I think there is a reasonably good chance marv was killed because scum thought he was the watcher.
Anyway, I didn't get to as much filter reading last night as I would have liked, and I really don't know who I'd most like to lynch today. I agree that HiroPro's vote switch was suspicious, but it probably means nothing is prplhz is town, and possibly means everything if prplhz is scum, so I'm not sure what to make of the situation, as I am pretty null on prplhz right now.
I'll reread more this evening when I get home from work, and can hopefully find someone I feel really good about lynching today.
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EBWOP: also, check PMs and claim if you were roleblocked. I was not.
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I'm done digging through filters, and unfortunately no one person sticks out at me as particularly scummy. This is troubling since we really need a scum lynch today. Anyway, here are some of my most current and relevant thoughts:
on Custos Luna
DYH made some good points. I have no idea why CL thought it was a good idea to let his primary scumread decide who got lynched yesterday. I'm very interested to hear CL's explanation of his actions.
That said, I'm not comfortable with the overwhelming anti-CL sentiment in the thread right now. There are several things in his filter that suggest to me that he is townie. But before I try to dissuade anyone from voting him today, I'd like to see his response to DYH's case.
on Shiaopi and DYH
I voiced suspicions of both of these players yesterday, but I have changed my mind about both of them, and I'm not interested in lynching either of them today. I'll explain why I changed my mind if either of them becomes a lynch candidate.
risk.nuke, slOosh, HiroPro, prplhz
This is the group that I'd like us to lynch into today. I am neutral or leaning town on all of the more active players right now, and these 4 are not only lurky and therefore difficult to read, but they are also supposedly 'vets', which makes their lack of activity especially alarming. The lurkiness would stick out more, if not for the fact that all 4 of them are doing it..
slOosh and risk.nuke are the very definition of 'under the radar'. We've hardly talked about them at all.
prplhz lurked most of the day yesterday, and still has yet to contribute much.
HiroPro also lacks much content. Additionally there are 2 things in his filter I take issue with (his voteswitch and his confident assertion that CL is scum).
Additionally, I want to point out of that CL is a vet who has recently emerged from lurkiness, and we are all biting his head off for his activity, when I think we really ought to be more concerned about the lurky vets right now.
I really, really want to see more from all of these players. If I had to pick 1 person to lynch right now, it would probably be HiroPro. I'll post more about him a bit later, but I'm taking a break for now. I've been staring at filters and my notes for hours.
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sorry I'm like 80% of the way through a post on CL, but I have to go. I'll finish it and post it when I get back in a couple hours.
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On August 12 2012 03:49 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 21:16 sciberbia wrote:
on Custos Luna
That said, I'm not comfortable with the overwhelming anti-CL sentiment in the thread right now. There are several things in his filter that suggest to me that he is townie. But before I try to dissuade anyone from voting him today, I'd like to see his response to DYH's case.
I think it would be good if you brought them out.
Custos Luna
I'm willing to believe that his actions yesterday were a brain-fart and did not have malicious intent
There are a few things in CL's filter that make me think that, for whatever reason, his brain is/was having issues with the logic surrounding yesterday's lynch, and therefore, his nonsensical action is not alignment-indicative.
On August 10 2012 23:08 Custos Luna wrote:
He could bus prplhz to look more townie, but since he was forced to make the decision, it was not truly his own, and he would still be scummy in my eyes.
This is just really bad logic, and I'm surprised anyone would say this as either town or scum. If Mordanis had hammered a goblin yesterday, he should have recieved quite a bit of town cred. Obvious, right? But for some reason, CL seems to think that scum Mordanis might hammer on scum prplhz, when in reality this is extremely unlikely.
On August 11 2012 08:28 Custos Luna wrote:
I told you to make a commitment, and you chose Forumite. Regardless of who you chose, I was going to go the same way as you.
Here, CL voluntarily draws attention to the fact that he let Mordanis lead the lynch yesterday. This is before DYH even made his case. I don't know why anyone (especially scum) would draw attention to the fact that they were blatantly sheeping another person's vote (unless in his head it was a sensible thing to do). This is a very important quote in my eyes.
Both of these quotes fit into my theory that CL is/was not looking at the situation logically, and that he thought his actions yesterday were benefitting town.
other things in his filter that make me think he is town
corrects himself about being suspicious of me (not shiaopi)+ Show Spoiler +On August 09 2012 00:26 Custos Luna wrote:
Also: Last night when I said ShiaoPi was triggering my scumdar, I meant Scib. Combination of tired brain + new names for me. This was just preliminary thinking before sleep. All opinions subject to change.
This gives me a townie feel. Scum are just making reads up as they go along anyway, so I don't know why he'd bother to "correct" himself if he is scum. Nothing against shiaopi, but I think that I had more town cred and more thread control than shiaopi at the time, so I don't know why scum CL would go so out of his way to make me wary of them.
has the correct read on Forumite+ Show Spoiler +On August 09 2012 02:10 Custos Luna wrote:
I'm not intentionally avoiding the topic of Forumite, I just don't have much to say about it at this point. I understand the case, and it does have some merit. However, I have been in Forumite's position before as town, so I'm still trying to decide if it was blind aggression to generate discussion (and as a result he has now been forced to backpedal), or just general scum activity. I will be rereading to try and get a better idea/feel.
In light of Forumite's flip, I think that this was the correct opinion to have on Forumite yesterday. That the case on him had merit, but that it didn't do enough to show he was scum as opposed to a townie caught in a lie. I give CL townie points for maintaining this view.
His post on DYH gave me a townie feel+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On August 09 2012 03:39 Custos Luna wrote:Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 03:28 sciberbia wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On August 09 2012 02:57 DoYouHas wrote:
Currently I am basing my reads as much on intuition as on logic.
Although scrib makes good points against Forumite I don't find myself convinced. The motive I read behind Forumite's inconsistencies and subsequent posts is an attempt to get things going and then trying to both be transparent and move the thread forward. I completely agree that the way he has handled himself so far has been bad, but both town and scum can play badly. What matters is the motivation behind the actions. I feel like his motivation is more likely to be town than scum at the moment.
I agree with CL's opinion of Mord. I see Mord's focus on the VT claim that wasn't really a VT claim and make note of how that whole exchange gained the town exactly zilch and wasted our time. His first and last posts also bother me. His first post only stands out because of the end. He ends his post with a strong statement about how he is going to go scum hunting. What comes of that? 1 Question to CL. Then Mord completely sidetracks to the "VT claim" thing. Then the only other thing we get from him is the very lackluster response to Hiro about Forumite. It reads as very likely to be scum to me.
prplhz is looking worse and worse in my eyes because of his lack of quality early and his lurking now. I don't really have anything new to bring against him as he hasn't written anything new. But his silence is condemning, his apparent desire to fly under the radar while everyone is focusing on Shiao/Mord/Forum. He needs to be kept in the spotlight with all our other suspects and he has earned my vote.
##Vote: prplhz
This post of DoYouHas makes me suspicious of him. 1) Perhaps I am biased, but I don't like his reasons for soft defending Forumite. I don't know how announcing a read but keeping it to yourself is 'transparent' and 'trying to move the thread forward'. His stance on Forumite seems wishy/washy and I'm not a fan. 2) He says that Mordanis reads as 'very likely scum', but then he votes prplhz for lurking? wtf? If you think somebody is very likely scum, and they already have two votes on them, you as a townie should add your vote, not vote for a lurker to 'keep him in the spotlight'. FoS DoYouHas To be fair, that's pretty much what marvel did with Forumite/me. I'm not sure how suspicious marvel still finds me, but he has at least been very vocal and forthright with his thoughts as opposed to DoYouHas. I will add a point to your thoughts though. Day 1, it is extremely difficult to distinguish scummy play from poor/misinformed town play. In my eyes, it is not the blatantly bad people that need to be as heavily focused on - they will continue to be bad and always be under the microscope. It is the complacent, quiet, and appeasing ones that are worrisome for town because they can slide under the radar and stay there. In DYH's posts, he hasn't really added much at all. In his 3 content posts, he mainly focused on double-lynch discussion, prplhz's 2 useless posts, and really nothing else. There has been very little added from his posts. Nothing really new has been brought up. He's agreeing with arguments without building upon it in an attempt to keep blame off of him. I do agree with DYH in that prpl needs to show up, but DYH also needs to be watched closely. CL doesn't push for a lynch on DYH at any point in time, but points out that it is correct to keep an eye on him. This gives me a concerned townie feel rather than a malicious scum feel. Scum are more concerned in getting mislynches to go down than anything else, and this post didn't really contribute towards the D1 lynch. The feeling I get to this post is that he just wants us to keep an eye on DYH, which I can easily see townie motivation for, and I don't really see any scum motivation.
his post calling out a 3-person scumteam+ Show Spoiler +
OK. This is another pretty major point in my eyes.
I think it can be very tempting to try to call out the entire scumteam when you are a townie. Sometimes we just get convinced that we are onto something, and we are tempted to point it out to make it look like we are geniuses if and when we happen to be proved correct. So, I can see townie motivation for this post.
I think that this post would be a huge and obvious mistake for a scum CL to make. Think about it. This is a 10 person game, and he just called out 3 people as likely scum. That's not gaining him a lot of friends. I don't know of any player in this game that CL could have reasonably expected to be supportive of his 3-peson scumteam idea. It looks to me like he's trying to take on the world, and this seems much more like a townie move than a scum move.
In conclusion, I'm thinking town on CL, and would really not like to lynch him today.
@Mordanis, @Keirathi, @DoYouHas, @risk.nuke
I'd like to know if anything I said will make you reconsider your vote on CL. I hope it does.
If we lynch one person today and are wrong, we will be put at 5 townies vs 3 scum, which is essentially triple MYLO (serious trouble). If we lynch two people today and are wrong on both, we will be put at 4 townies vs 3 scum, which is triple LYLO (not much worse). I think there is a lot to be said for a double-lynch today to maximize the chances of getting at least one scum killed and keeping us out of MYLO/LYLO tomorrow. Just wanted to get this out there before deadline gets near.
I'm still not sure who I'd most like to lynch. SlOosh is at least doing something today whereas risk.nuke/prplhz/HiroPro are still doing nothing. I'll think some more about these guys and make another post on one or more of them.
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On August 12 2012 05:30 slOosh wrote:
sciberbia could I get your thoughts on CL soon? I'm wondering if this is indeed a misdirection away from Mordanis onto an easy lynch or if CL was caught doing something scummy and is backpedalling.
To everyone who defended Mordanis on meta, could you please re-clarify how he is town?
@slOosh
I just gave my thoughts on CL, and I think now would be a good time for you to clearly state your opinion of him.
Also, like Keirathi said, Mordanis's wordiness is a nulltell due to his meta. Nobody it is saying it is a towntell. I've been between neutral and thinking town on him throughout the game, but for reasons that have nothing to do with meta.
Finally, I think you should be wary of thinking that Mordanis and CL have opposite alignments. I'm really unconvinced that either of them is mafia.
On August 12 2012 06:10 Keirathi wrote:
(regarding Mordanis)
There is very little chance that I would vote him today over CL/prpl/risk.
@Keirathi
Is there any reason you didn't include HiroPro on this list, or are you still suspicious of HiroPro? I ask because I'm very interested in a possible HiroPro lynch today.
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On August 12 2012 08:54 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2012 08:18 sciberbia wrote:
@Keirathi
Is there any reason you didn't include HiroPro on this list, or are you still suspicious of HiroPro? I ask because I'm very interested in a possible HiroPro lynch today. Mostly because in my thorough read-through of filters during the night phase, I started thinking that there's a much higher chance of Hiro being scum if prplhz is. If prplhz is scum, then the few actual things that Hiro did on d1 point towards him being scum as well. But why would scum Hiro feel the need to change his vote from prplhz to Forumite when town was basically evenly split? Not that its impossible for Hiro to be scum without prpl, but it makes much more sense to me to lynch prplhz first.
@Custos
What do you think about what Keirathi just said? I've been thinking about this myself and I think it's likely that HiroPro is only scum if prplhz is as well.
If prplhz is town
why would scum HiroPro make a dubious voteswitch just to lynch one townie over another townie? Doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
If prplhz is scum
Obviously, the vote switch is very sketchy if prplhz is scum.
Do you think this reasoning is valid? Do you think it therefore makes sense to lynch prplhz before HiroPro?
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EPT
