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On August 12 2012 05:00 Custos Luna wrote:@sloosh: His whole filter is filled with basically nothing. Asks questions, doesn't put forward much of his own opinions. Votes for prplhz, but it didn't take much convincing to get him onto Forumite once prplhz was set to be lynched. Also: Show nested quote +On August 08 2012 05:26 HiroPro wrote:On August 08 2012 05:15 Keirathi wrote:On August 08 2012 04:28 HiroPro wrote:
Eh I'd only ever consider double lynching in sciberbia's 3/1 scenario (or a 2/1 if it ever comes up). Anywhere else I don't see the benefit.
Thoughts on using Tracker as an innocent child style role instead (if we have one)? It's fairly worthless in this setup since it can only track medic/RB and mafia will know whether or not a tracker is present. Why would you want to guarantee one of our only 2 blue roles' death? Tracker might be "fairly useless", but its certainly more useful alive than dead. I'd rather have a confirmed town than a useless blue. And I'm not saying that they should claim now, just that saying that if someone is tracker they should strongly consider claiming at a crucial point (Mylo would be good) rather than waiting endlessly for a useful report that they probably won't get. has no issues with a blue claiming. Even though he states he doesn't necessarily want it to be now, he puts the idea there. In his EoN1 post: Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 00:04 HiroPro wrote:
I have a RL issue to take care of, so this will be my last post.
I don't have the time to go through filters again but I'll summarize my thoughts.
sciberbia is town. His case on Forumite had a lot of effort and he's been consistently townie throughout this game.
Mordanis is probably town. His early case on ShiaoPi was not good at all and his posting style annoys me but I feel that he's legitametly sharing his thoughts and honestly I have a hard time believing that any scum team would let Mordanis post that ShiaoPi case.
Luna is scum. No experienced player would make a post like the one he just did as town. He makes a big assumption in calling prplhz scum and then uses that to justify everything else. This is especially strange since all of yesterday he was saying prplhz's alignment is unclear.
Shiao and Keirathi should be looked at very closely. Shiao pushed Mordanis for reasons that had nothing to do with him being scum and he seems very nervous and reluctant to call people scum (look at his night post on the Forumite voters). Keirathi is not sharing his ideas really at all. Marv is not playing the way that I'm used to seeing him as town, dunno about him. He says Mordanis is town, that I'm scum, and makes the (very brief) case, and then Mordanis picks it right up once D2 starts. But, again, it's hard to do anything in a town environment in which I'm being tunnelled and no one is talking.
Oops, poor formatting, idk how that happened. Fixed in quote
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On August 11 2012 19:29 risk.nuke wrote:
DoYouHas pulling out some big guns.
I like that.
##unvote: prplhz
##vote: Custos Luna
Mind sharing your opinions?
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Yea that's the basic feel I got from him too ... but your quote on HiroPro brought up something.
To everyone who is dismissing Mordanis' suspicious play solely because his posting looks like that regardless of his alignment, how are we going to catch him as scum?
For instance,
On August 11 2012 00:04 HiroPro wrote:
Mordanis is probably town. His early case on ShiaoPi was not good at all and his posting style annoys me but I feel that he's legitametly sharing his thoughts and honestly I have a hard time believing that any scum team would let Mordanis post that ShiaoPi case.
I looked up Mordanis' scum play in Newbie Mafia XIV and in the scumQT he never ran anything by for double check analysis. It turns out I also happened to spec the game (guess I just forgot that I did), and from what I recall, he wasn't someone who had an inherently difficult to understand playstyle. This is a totally unwarranted excuse to call Mordanis and alleviate suspicions on him.
sciberbia could I get your thoughts on CL soon? I'm wondering if this is indeed a misdirection away from Mordanis onto an easy lynch or if CL was caught doing something scummy and is backpedalling.
To everyone who defended Mordanis on meta, could you please re-clarify how he is town?
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sorry I'm like 80% of the way through a post on CL, but I have to go. I'll finish it and post it when I get back in a couple hours.
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On August 12 2012 05:30 slOosh wrote:
To everyone who is dismissing Mordanis' suspicious play solely because his posting looks like that regardless of his alignment, how are we going to catch him as scum?
...
To everyone who defended Mordanis on meta, could you please re-clarify how he is town?
Every scum will make mistakes that you can pick up on. My whole point with defending his "meta" was that voting him for having fluffy posts is like voting Chezinu for trolling. He's going to do that as either alignment, so you're just as likely to hit a townie as you are scum. That was my main problem with the Mordanis case day 1.
I originally gave Mord some townie points for making a case on marv. I find it hard to believe that any relative newbie would intentionally pick a fight with marv on day 1 as scum. However, the fact that it was at the end of the day, and that it is possibility that the marv NK was already planned so he didn't have to be extremely threatened about a big vote swing onto him at the end of the day kind of drags him back down to null. Nothing he's said has stuck out as particularly scummy in and of itself though. There is very little chance that I would vote him today over CL/prpl/risk.
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On August 12 2012 03:49 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 21:16 sciberbia wrote:
on Custos Luna
That said, I'm not comfortable with the overwhelming anti-CL sentiment in the thread right now. There are several things in his filter that suggest to me that he is townie. But before I try to dissuade anyone from voting him today, I'd like to see his response to DYH's case.
I think it would be good if you brought them out.
Custos Luna
I'm willing to believe that his actions yesterday were a brain-fart and did not have malicious intent
There are a few things in CL's filter that make me think that, for whatever reason, his brain is/was having issues with the logic surrounding yesterday's lynch, and therefore, his nonsensical action is not alignment-indicative.
On August 10 2012 23:08 Custos Luna wrote:
He could bus prplhz to look more townie, but since he was forced to make the decision, it was not truly his own, and he would still be scummy in my eyes.
This is just really bad logic, and I'm surprised anyone would say this as either town or scum. If Mordanis had hammered a goblin yesterday, he should have recieved quite a bit of town cred. Obvious, right? But for some reason, CL seems to think that scum Mordanis might hammer on scum prplhz, when in reality this is extremely unlikely.
On August 11 2012 08:28 Custos Luna wrote:
I told you to make a commitment, and you chose Forumite. Regardless of who you chose, I was going to go the same way as you.
Here, CL voluntarily draws attention to the fact that he let Mordanis lead the lynch yesterday. This is before DYH even made his case. I don't know why anyone (especially scum) would draw attention to the fact that they were blatantly sheeping another person's vote (unless in his head it was a sensible thing to do). This is a very important quote in my eyes.
Both of these quotes fit into my theory that CL is/was not looking at the situation logically, and that he thought his actions yesterday were benefitting town.
other things in his filter that make me think he is town
corrects himself about being suspicious of me (not shiaopi)+ Show Spoiler +On August 09 2012 00:26 Custos Luna wrote:
Also: Last night when I said ShiaoPi was triggering my scumdar, I meant Scib. Combination of tired brain + new names for me. This was just preliminary thinking before sleep. All opinions subject to change.
This gives me a townie feel. Scum are just making reads up as they go along anyway, so I don't know why he'd bother to "correct" himself if he is scum. Nothing against shiaopi, but I think that I had more town cred and more thread control than shiaopi at the time, so I don't know why scum CL would go so out of his way to make me wary of them.
has the correct read on Forumite+ Show Spoiler +On August 09 2012 02:10 Custos Luna wrote:
I'm not intentionally avoiding the topic of Forumite, I just don't have much to say about it at this point. I understand the case, and it does have some merit. However, I have been in Forumite's position before as town, so I'm still trying to decide if it was blind aggression to generate discussion (and as a result he has now been forced to backpedal), or just general scum activity. I will be rereading to try and get a better idea/feel.
In light of Forumite's flip, I think that this was the correct opinion to have on Forumite yesterday. That the case on him had merit, but that it didn't do enough to show he was scum as opposed to a townie caught in a lie. I give CL townie points for maintaining this view.
His post on DYH gave me a townie feel+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On August 09 2012 03:39 Custos Luna wrote:Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 03:28 sciberbia wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On August 09 2012 02:57 DoYouHas wrote:
Currently I am basing my reads as much on intuition as on logic.
Although scrib makes good points against Forumite I don't find myself convinced. The motive I read behind Forumite's inconsistencies and subsequent posts is an attempt to get things going and then trying to both be transparent and move the thread forward. I completely agree that the way he has handled himself so far has been bad, but both town and scum can play badly. What matters is the motivation behind the actions. I feel like his motivation is more likely to be town than scum at the moment.
I agree with CL's opinion of Mord. I see Mord's focus on the VT claim that wasn't really a VT claim and make note of how that whole exchange gained the town exactly zilch and wasted our time. His first and last posts also bother me. His first post only stands out because of the end. He ends his post with a strong statement about how he is going to go scum hunting. What comes of that? 1 Question to CL. Then Mord completely sidetracks to the "VT claim" thing. Then the only other thing we get from him is the very lackluster response to Hiro about Forumite. It reads as very likely to be scum to me.
prplhz is looking worse and worse in my eyes because of his lack of quality early and his lurking now. I don't really have anything new to bring against him as he hasn't written anything new. But his silence is condemning, his apparent desire to fly under the radar while everyone is focusing on Shiao/Mord/Forum. He needs to be kept in the spotlight with all our other suspects and he has earned my vote.
##Vote: prplhz
This post of DoYouHas makes me suspicious of him. 1) Perhaps I am biased, but I don't like his reasons for soft defending Forumite. I don't know how announcing a read but keeping it to yourself is 'transparent' and 'trying to move the thread forward'. His stance on Forumite seems wishy/washy and I'm not a fan. 2) He says that Mordanis reads as 'very likely scum', but then he votes prplhz for lurking? wtf? If you think somebody is very likely scum, and they already have two votes on them, you as a townie should add your vote, not vote for a lurker to 'keep him in the spotlight'. FoS DoYouHas To be fair, that's pretty much what marvel did with Forumite/me. I'm not sure how suspicious marvel still finds me, but he has at least been very vocal and forthright with his thoughts as opposed to DoYouHas. I will add a point to your thoughts though. Day 1, it is extremely difficult to distinguish scummy play from poor/misinformed town play. In my eyes, it is not the blatantly bad people that need to be as heavily focused on - they will continue to be bad and always be under the microscope. It is the complacent, quiet, and appeasing ones that are worrisome for town because they can slide under the radar and stay there. In DYH's posts, he hasn't really added much at all. In his 3 content posts, he mainly focused on double-lynch discussion, prplhz's 2 useless posts, and really nothing else. There has been very little added from his posts. Nothing really new has been brought up. He's agreeing with arguments without building upon it in an attempt to keep blame off of him. I do agree with DYH in that prpl needs to show up, but DYH also needs to be watched closely. CL doesn't push for a lynch on DYH at any point in time, but points out that it is correct to keep an eye on him. This gives me a concerned townie feel rather than a malicious scum feel. Scum are more concerned in getting mislynches to go down than anything else, and this post didn't really contribute towards the D1 lynch. The feeling I get to this post is that he just wants us to keep an eye on DYH, which I can easily see townie motivation for, and I don't really see any scum motivation.
his post calling out a 3-person scumteam+ Show Spoiler +
OK. This is another pretty major point in my eyes.
I think it can be very tempting to try to call out the entire scumteam when you are a townie. Sometimes we just get convinced that we are onto something, and we are tempted to point it out to make it look like we are geniuses if and when we happen to be proved correct. So, I can see townie motivation for this post.
I think that this post would be a huge and obvious mistake for a scum CL to make. Think about it. This is a 10 person game, and he just called out 3 people as likely scum. That's not gaining him a lot of friends. I don't know of any player in this game that CL could have reasonably expected to be supportive of his 3-peson scumteam idea. It looks to me like he's trying to take on the world, and this seems much more like a townie move than a scum move.
In conclusion, I'm thinking town on CL, and would really not like to lynch him today.
@Mordanis, @Keirathi, @DoYouHas, @risk.nuke
I'd like to know if anything I said will make you reconsider your vote on CL. I hope it does.
If we lynch one person today and are wrong, we will be put at 5 townies vs 3 scum, which is essentially triple MYLO (serious trouble). If we lynch two people today and are wrong on both, we will be put at 4 townies vs 3 scum, which is triple LYLO (not much worse). I think there is a lot to be said for a double-lynch today to maximize the chances of getting at least one scum killed and keeping us out of MYLO/LYLO tomorrow. Just wanted to get this out there before deadline gets near.
I'm still not sure who I'd most like to lynch. SlOosh is at least doing something today whereas risk.nuke/prplhz/HiroPro are still doing nothing. I'll think some more about these guys and make another post on one or more of them.
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On August 12 2012 05:30 slOosh wrote:
sciberbia could I get your thoughts on CL soon? I'm wondering if this is indeed a misdirection away from Mordanis onto an easy lynch or if CL was caught doing something scummy and is backpedalling.
To everyone who defended Mordanis on meta, could you please re-clarify how he is town?
@slOosh
I just gave my thoughts on CL, and I think now would be a good time for you to clearly state your opinion of him.
Also, like Keirathi said, Mordanis's wordiness is a nulltell due to his meta. Nobody it is saying it is a towntell. I've been between neutral and thinking town on him throughout the game, but for reasons that have nothing to do with meta.
Finally, I think you should be wary of thinking that Mordanis and CL have opposite alignments. I'm really unconvinced that either of them is mafia.
On August 12 2012 06:10 Keirathi wrote:
(regarding Mordanis)
There is very little chance that I would vote him today over CL/prpl/risk.
@Keirathi
Is there any reason you didn't include HiroPro on this list, or are you still suspicious of HiroPro? I ask because I'm very interested in a possible HiroPro lynch today.
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Scib, you haven't convinced me enough to retract my vote. But you have got me listening. Your point about the connection case in particular is a good one. A few of your other points I think are up to interpretation.
This may not have been explicit in your defense, but it is there, and I came to agree. If I'm going to push CL all the way to the deadline, I need to make a case using his whole filter, not just one terrible misstep.
As for a double lynch today, I'm against it. I agree that it would increase our chances of hitting scum. I just don't see us agreeing on 2 candidates and getting the votes organized in time. Double lynch is a great tool, but we are playing with fire. If we don't have a good handle on the votes a good while before the deadline it is just too big a risk.
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P.S. MYLO and LYLO are the same thing in this setup. We can't vote for no lynches, and going for a double lynch when scum have 3/8 or 3/7 of a vote is stupid.
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On August 12 2012 08:18 sciberbia wrote:
@Keirathi
Is there any reason you didn't include HiroPro on this list, or are you still suspicious of HiroPro? I ask because I'm very interested in a possible HiroPro lynch today.
Mostly because in my thorough read-through of filters during the night phase, I started thinking that there's a much higher chance of Hiro being scum if prplhz is. If prplhz is scum, then the few actual things that Hiro did on d1 point towards him being scum as well. But why would scum Hiro feel the need to change his vote from prplhz to Forumite when town was basically evenly split?
Not that its impossible for Hiro to be scum without prpl, but it makes much more sense to me to lynch prplhz first.
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I agree with you DYH that double lynch right now is too risky. At least until we're hit one scum, double lynch should stay on the back burner imo.
I'm really wondering if prpl or hiro are ever going to do anything at all. Risk.nuke also very quiet.
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On August 12 2012 08:54 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2012 08:18 sciberbia wrote:
@Keirathi
Is there any reason you didn't include HiroPro on this list, or are you still suspicious of HiroPro? I ask because I'm very interested in a possible HiroPro lynch today. Mostly because in my thorough read-through of filters during the night phase, I started thinking that there's a much higher chance of Hiro being scum if prplhz is. If prplhz is scum, then the few actual things that Hiro did on d1 point towards him being scum as well. But why would scum Hiro feel the need to change his vote from prplhz to Forumite when town was basically evenly split? Not that its impossible for Hiro to be scum without prpl, but it makes much more sense to me to lynch prplhz first.
@Custos
What do you think about what Keirathi just said? I've been thinking about this myself and I think it's likely that HiroPro is only scum if prplhz is as well.
If prplhz is town
why would scum HiroPro make a dubious voteswitch just to lynch one townie over another townie? Doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
If prplhz is scum
Obviously, the vote switch is very sketchy if prplhz is scum.
Do you think this reasoning is valid? Do you think it therefore makes sense to lynch prplhz before HiroPro?
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and @keirathi
If it was all up to you, who would we lynch today? Custos/prphlz/risk.nuke? Did anything I say about CL make you want to reconsider your vote on him?
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On August 12 2012 08:59 sciberbia wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2012 08:54 Keirathi wrote:On August 12 2012 08:18 sciberbia wrote:
@Keirathi
Is there any reason you didn't include HiroPro on this list, or are you still suspicious of HiroPro? I ask because I'm very interested in a possible HiroPro lynch today. Mostly because in my thorough read-through of filters during the night phase, I started thinking that there's a much higher chance of Hiro being scum if prplhz is. If prplhz is scum, then the few actual things that Hiro did on d1 point towards him being scum as well. But why would scum Hiro feel the need to change his vote from prplhz to Forumite when town was basically evenly split? Not that its impossible for Hiro to be scum without prpl, but it makes much more sense to me to lynch prplhz first. @Custos What do you think about what Keirathi just said? I've been thinking about this myself and I think it's likely that HiroPro is only scum if prplhz is as well. If prplhz is townwhy would scum HiroPro make a dubious voteswitch just to lynch one townie over another townie? Doesn't make a whole lot of sense. If prplhz is scumObviously, the vote switch is very sketchy if prplhz is scum. Do you think this reasoning is valid? Do you think it therefore makes sense to lynch prplhz before HiroPro?
I think the logic is sound, and it's pretty aligned with my thinking, but apparently my logic is flawed this game. My vote on Hiro was partially for pressure, but as I was a huge focus at the time (and I'm sure still am), I'm sure he felt no risk from my vote.
Seeing as my connection case is on the basis of prplhz being scum, and he seems very keen to let me sit under the crosshairs and not scumhunt, I'm switching my vote to him. If people are smart, they will join me, or at least find another, more likely scum member.
##unvote HiroPro
##vote prplhz
I will be going out shortly, but I'll be on my phone so I can still follow along and make some posts.
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@Scib: I think the ideal lynch target today is prplhz. As much as I was completely wtf boggled at CL, you were right, it really doesn't make a lot of sense for him as scum to call that kind of attention to himself.
I disagree with some of your other points in your defense of him (ie the "correct read on forumite" - of course scum would know he was town and could soft defend him as well...and the DYH case is a complete null-tell...scum make cases that they don't push quite frequently in my experience), but overall I think I feel less confident in a lynch on Cl than I do prplhz.
##Unvote
##Vote: prplhz
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That being said, I think risk.nuke has a great chance of flipping scum as well, but I don't think his lynch gives us as much information as a prplhz one.
I would say that I feel almost equally confident that either (or both) will flip scum, but I would lynch prpl because his flip gives information that risk's doesn't.
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On August 12 2012 09:17 Keirathi wrote:
@Scib: I think the ideal lynch target today is prplhz. As much as I was completely wtf boggled at CL, you were right, it really doesn't make a lot of sense for him as scum to call that kind of attention to himself.
I disagree with some of your other points in your defense of him (ie the "correct read on forumite" - of course scum would know he was town and could soft defend him as well...and the DYH case is a complete null-tell...scum make cases that they don't push quite frequently in my experience), but overall I think I feel less confident in a lynch on Cl than I do prplhz.
##Unvote
##Vote: prplhz
Excellent! OK let's just forgot about my points with the DYH case and Forumite read... nobody seems to like those and I admit they are minor points at best. I'm glad you agree with my more important points.
Anyway, I'm still quite suspicious of HiroPro/slOosh/prplhz/risk.nuke. It's really a question of which is the worst:
HiroPro: lurks. states RL issue. lurks some more
slOosh: lurks. gives reason for lurking. is in thread but not much presence. fairly under the radar.
prplhz: lurks. says he will stop lurking. proceeds to lurk.
risk.nuke: clearly doesn't give a shit. And doesn't give a shit that everyone knows he doesn't give a shit
From most suspicious to least suspicious, I think it is HiroPro & prplhz, followed by risk.nuke, followed by slOosh, based on what little reads I can make from their filters.
So I am quite happy with a prplhz lynch today. As I said, I think it makes sense to lynch him before HiroPro. I hope enough people (looking at Mordanis, slOosh, DYH) will reconsider on CL such that we can lynch prplhz instead.
My main issues with prplhz are as follows:
-- with the exception of Mad Men, he does clearly seem to care more as town than as scum
-- he only became active yesterday when under threat of lynch
-- even in his all activity, all he really did was defend himself and insist on the Forumite counterwagon
-- he promised to contribute today, but still hasn't done anything
-- I'm quite suspicious of HiroPro as well, and I think HiroPro is only likely to be scum if prplhz is as well
##Vote prplhz
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@Shiaopi
What the hell is going on with you? After an active D1, you haven't posted in like 48 hours. Care to comment on either the CL or the prplhz wagons?
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Town has been butchered by lack of activity this game.
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EPT
