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On August 11 2012 12:17 Hapahauli wrote:
@ ShadySands - any other players stick out to you other than promethelax? I'd like to hear your thoughts on the other 3 non-confirmed players (mkfuba, YourHarry, Kronen)
I played with mkfuba as scum in Day 0.5, and his play this game differs enough from that for me to give him a clean bill of health. But I'll be watching him closely. Overall though, we'll probably be wasting our time if we focus most of our scumhunting energy on him.
YH--same, his play is a lot more logical and sensible than 0.5, which means I'm not that suspicious of him.
Kronen: I'm honestly concerned about Kronen. Why are you discounting the possibility of a bus vote?
Before the GK train left the station, Kronen didn't offer much except weak agreement with Prome's sideni case. Then the train took off and Kronen posted this to justify his vote:
On August 11 2012 07:44 Kronen wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 07:35 Lvdr wrote:
Oh god Kronen thinks Sideni's case was good. I really need my own face brick... Quick rebuttal. I didn't say I thought it was good. I did however change my approach to looking at the proceeding because of it. So much of the early interchange was based off of mkfuba's case. It was the only piece of substance written at that time. His choice of looking at how people reacted or rebutted it is interesting. That being said he grasped too much at straws and he suppositions were unfounded. In the future however I'm looking at the foundation of what he did there. What I fear from the lynching happening tonight is that we won't learn anything from it. GK will have my vote for tonight for two reasons 1) I have no concrete evidence upon which to draw correlations from other people's lynching, 2)he's been the most inactive yet trolly... but I fear a vote for him will turn over less than votes for others.##vote GoodKarma
Basically Kronen votes for GK for two reasons that are extremely WIFOM, then acknowledges that he thinks other people are scummier than GK anyhow. In essence Kronen is saying to town "okay, I surrender my vote and give it over to the wagon." Had GK not flipped scum, then we would all call this terrible town play. But let's not let our success blind ourselves--bad town play still deserves to be called out, and think--if Kronen was scum, then the reluctance here makes sense as well, because it's the only way Kronen can vote for GK and not sound like he's flip-flopping to a quick bus.
I don't think he's nearly as much of a read as Prome is, but he's someone to keep an eye on--all the more because unlike Prome, he has the built-in halo of clinching the GK lynch above his head, which would ideal for a scum to have.
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On August 11 2012 13:26 YourHarry wrote:
Yes, Hapa, I will give you what you want. Soon enough. Let me finish reading first.
I clearly outlined why I thought Lvdr and Axero was town. Lvdr in particular felt like he was being coached. Just because you and many others found them suspicious, does not mean that town Harry would have found them suspicious as well.
One thing I found suspicious about Promothelax was that he indiscreetly asked the mod what the rules were on encryption. It was almost as if he wanted to show the townies that he was a power role and he wanted to leave bread crumbs. Realistically, no power role would do that in fear that he will be targeted by the scums. This is especially the case because such alignment-sensitive questions could be asked via PM.
I just read that encryption rules post from Prome. There are three possibilities, which are all plausible:
1) He's scum, trying to fake blue
2) If he hasn't rolled blue before, this could be a legitimate question (although putting it in the open thread is a little wierd)
3) He's a vet trying to bait a NK
1 and 3 are the likeliest--3 being most likely, ironically enough, because scum Prom in XXI was easily much smarter and more discreet with his posts.
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On August 11 2012 13:51 YourHarry wrote:
EDBWOP:
But he ends the paragraph with the phrase (underlined for emphasis) that implies that he really believes that GK is a scum and that he fears that GK will not gather enough votes.
I thought that phrase meant that he fears a GK vote, if GK flips town, will tell us a lot less than a lynch of someone else. Am I reading it wrong?
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On August 11 2012 14:12 Hapahauli wrote:
@ YourHarry and Shadysands - so if I can summarize both of your viewpoints, both of you are leaning to the Promo/Kronen scumteam?
Yep.
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On August 12 2012 05:18 mkfuba07 wrote:Right now I would still say Shady. In addition to my previous post here + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=45#884 , I have more thoughts concerning his actions around the time of the vote. Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 07:43 Hapahauli wrote:On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote:
I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma? Basically, he's been lurking, he hasn't contributed any original analysis, and he's tunneled suspicion on Axero/Sideni. He's taken safe positions while never sticking his neck out. Especially in light of how insane D1 has been, I find this strange. TBH, I'm just incredibly unsatisfied with the current lynch candidates (Sideni and Lvdr) - I think they're bad townies. He doesn't accept Hapa's reasoning here, when I see no flaws with it from a pro-town standpoint. Only after Kronen clinches the vote for GK does Shady actually confirm his vote on Lvdr. He uses Lvdr's "suspicious" decision as reasoning, when I don't see it as suspicious at all. At this point, his vote will not sway the vote either way, so I don't see it as particularly townish to stubbornly stick with his original vote. He also earns some towncred along the way for not bandwagoning. He even included this post that establishes his willingness to go either way if given a reason: Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote:
I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma? But when his vote no longer impacts the lynch, he doesn't change his vote despite valid reasons being presented.
Here's the problem with your logic. After Kronen clinched the vote, no matter which way I voted, you can use that to argue that I'm scum. If I voted GK, then it can look like a scum trying to look innocent, and if I voted someone else, then you can argue the WIFOM-ish argument you just posted.
What happened is that about 30 minutes before the lynch, I came into the thread and saw a huge pileup on GoodKarma when most of the D1 discussion had been around Sideni and Lvdr. I was really confused, and asked for people to help me recap what had happened. After that, I thought that the case on GK was not as good as the one on Lvdr, so I went with the Lvdr vote. Someone tell me why this is scum behavior?
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On August 12 2012 09:10 Hapahauli wrote:Well here's the deal - killing Kronen was a HUUUUUUGE risk given our confirmed townie pool. Of ShadySands, YourHarry, and mkfuba07, one of them being scum, who could get away with killing Kronen? The answer is ShadySands. He's the only guy without serious suspicion on him. Let me go back here: Show nested quote +1) Part of me doubts that Promethelax (as hypothetical mafia) would so willingly exonerate a non-confirmed townie by including him in a list with two almost-confirmed townies (me and Dandel Ion). Given Shady's instant FOS against Promethelax after I posted my suspicions, Promethelax could have name-dropped Shady in order to get him as far through the game as possible, "confirming" his scumbuddy as townie. I consider this not likely, but possible I now consider this THE MOST POSSIBLE and my leading theory. ShadySands and Promethelax scumteam.
Please explain your logic here. How does a nightkill on Kronen have anything to do with me having less suspicion on myself than mkfuba and YourHarry? Wouldn't this make a bit more sense for a scum to do if that scum was on your confirmed townie list?
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On August 12 2012 09:19 Hapahauli wrote:
Howabout this Shady - find me someone on my "confirmed townie list" that I should suspect over you.
So you're going to push a lynch on me unless I accuse someone with towncred?
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On August 12 2012 09:24 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2012 09:23 Shady Sands wrote:On August 12 2012 09:19 Hapahauli wrote:
Howabout this Shady - find me someone on my "confirmed townie list" that I should suspect over you. So you're going to push a lynch on me unless I accuse someone with towncred? Well you suggested that the 3rd scum could be on my "confirmed townie list," and right now, I have no reason to suspect anyone on that list over you. I will push a lynch against you unless you can convince me otherwise.
I don't have anyone. But it's not my obligation to come up with a counterlynch if I'm to defend myself from a lynch--that's how OMGUS wars start, and given that I'm already on a suspicion list, why would I help scum by doing that? I simply stated that your logic doesn't make sense, and I'm asking you to come up with a better explanation.
Here's the thing--if I'm on the shortlist with Kronen, mkfuba, and YourHarry, why would I make that list even shorter? Your assumption rests on your belief that no one has suspicion on me, which is flat out disproven by numerous posts in the thread itself. So what's your logic?
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On August 12 2012 09:37 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2012 09:29 Shady Sands wrote:On August 12 2012 09:24 Hapahauli wrote:On August 12 2012 09:23 Shady Sands wrote:On August 12 2012 09:19 Hapahauli wrote:
Howabout this Shady - find me someone on my "confirmed townie list" that I should suspect over you. So you're going to push a lynch on me unless I accuse someone with towncred? Well you suggested that the 3rd scum could be on my "confirmed townie list," and right now, I have no reason to suspect anyone on that list over you. I will push a lynch against you unless you can convince me otherwise. I don't have anyone. But it's not my obligation to come up with a counterlynch if I'm to defend myself from a lynch--that's how OMGUS wars start, and given that I'm already on a suspicion list, why would I help scum by doing that? I simply stated that your logic doesn't make sense, and I'm asking you to come up with a better explanation. Here's the thing--if I'm on the shortlist with Kronen, mkfuba, and YourHarry, why would I make that list even shorter? Your assumption rests on your belief that no one has suspicion on me, which is flat out disproven by numerous posts in the thread itself. So what's your logic? Process of elimination. Of the three people; ShadySands, Mkfuba, and YourHarry, you're the only one that makes sense. I'll build a case on you tomorrow morning. I have no reason to suspect anyone out of those three people in the game. If you give me a reason to suspect someone else - I'm willing to listen. You seem to be strongly indicating that someone on the confirmed townie list is mafia. TELL ME WHO. If you're not willing to scumhunt, please sit quietly and get lynched.
Please explain to me how me coming in with a random accusation on someone with a lot of towncred qualifies as scumhunting. Hint: it's not.
Pressuring me this way only makes it more, not less, likely that whatever case I come up with is hasty and half-baked, and less usable as a result.
Prome is still my top scum read at the moment. I'm checking through the confirmed townie posts and will get back with analysis tomorrow morning.
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Unless you're just fabricating claims to pressure me when you don't have any logic to back it up.
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Sorry for leaving the game, guys--I posted the reasons why I left the game in the scum QT.
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FYI Hapa, I left the game because I didn't want to play versus you.
Scum QT
Basically, I could google the scum QT, so I thought you were cheating by spying on our QT. That's why I left.
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Unfortunately, I don't think I can lay down my suspicions to play with you in the future.
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On August 14 2012 11:35 Lvdr wrote:
@Hapa: You know you're good when you make people rage-quit because they think you're hacking. Brain hacking maybe.
Well, basically I think I'm going to policy NK or policy lynch Hapa every single game now. Either he's scum, so scum haven't NK'd him yet, or I'm scum and he's going to get NK'd.
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I'm not sold on Hapa being innocent yet, but seeing as how there are only 50 or so steady mafia players here, it won't make sense to /out from all his games if I want to get better.
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On August 14 2012 11:50 Blazinghand wrote:I think it's pretty obvious Hapa didn't cheat, and he just played well. Did you even see him play in XXI? He's a great player! I think even being suspicious of him is kinda a dick move. Scum was inactive this game and lost handily. It happens. Let it go, man. And Hapa, I get that you're pissed he's calling you a cheater and you're right to be pissed, but telling him "fuck you" doesn't help anything. Shady, take some time to think about what you're saying and how immature you sound, and come back to the thread in a few days and talk it out. Show nested quote +On August 14 2012 11:39 Shady Sands wrote:On August 14 2012 11:35 Lvdr wrote:
@Hapa: You know you're good when you make people rage-quit because they think you're hacking. Brain hacking maybe. Well, basically I think I'm going to policy NK or policy lynch Hapa every single game now. Either he's scum, so scum haven't NK'd him yet, or I'm scum and he's going to get NK'd. You forgot two possibilities here, which is that you're both town, and you're going to try to policy lynch a skilled townie-- or that you're both scum, and obviously you're not gonna shoot your scumbuddy. Chill out, leave thread, come back in a few days and talk it out then.
I'm willing to play with Hapa again. After seeing that he was cop and got lucky with the night check, it makes sense. The only misread I made was not nightkilling him, because I honestly thought there was a medic.
The QT problem is a bit problematic though.
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EPT
