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Newbie Mini Mafia XXIII - Page 13

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 13 2012 22:13 GMT
#1075
Well if Prom flips green, I still want to lynch Shady Sands =/
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 13 2012 22:55 GMT
#1078
Now now, let's not speculate until we see the flip.

T-minus 5 minutes...
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 13 2012 23:11 GMT
#1081
postpostpostpost =/
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 13 2012 23:20 GMT
#1083
Oh wellz, off for an hour or two - look forward to the flip when I get back.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 14 2012 01:14 GMT
#1109
Good Game Town! I had a role-claim post written out too =(

Click the spoiler this time! =D
+ Show Spoiler +
On August 13 2012 08:59 Hapahauli wrote:
I am Spartacus.


I am the COP!

I checked Shady Sands last night. He came up RED.

Why am I role-claiming now?
  • With Promethelax flipping, there's only 1 mafia left.
  • Since there are no Millers or Mafia Framers in this setup, my red check is 100% accurate.
  • GAME OVER! TOWN WINS! Vote for Shady Sands!

Why can you trust me?
  • I would not fake-claim as a Vanilla Townie or another Blue Role. There is a good chance Shady Sands would get lynched tomorrow with or without me fake-claiming. Also, I would look really bad if Shady Sands flipped green. There would be no reason for me to take the risk.
  • I would not fake-claim as Mafia. If Shady Sands flipped green, I would be outing myself as the last mafia member.
  • Therefore, I am the real Cop.


##Vote Shady Sands
##Dance
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 14 2012 01:15 GMT
#1111
Anyone have the QT links?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 14 2012 01:17 GMT
#1114
Hey! I PM'd you Blazinhand <3
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-14 01:19:02
August 14 2012 01:18 GMT
#1120
@ YourHarry

TBH, I didn't Sideni was soft claiming. He clearly didn't understand how the role worked, so I thought there's no way it could constitute a claim. Plus with my red check on Shady, I pretty much knew who the scum were.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 14 2012 01:21 GMT
#1124
Promo claimed medic lol - he had to be scum. Therefore I concluded that Sideni didn't know what he was doing.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 14 2012 01:27 GMT
#1129
On August 14 2012 10:24 marvellosity wrote:
inactivity of the scum team gg


On that subject, incredibly sick activity by the town closer to lynch deadline. We would have not won the way we did if it weren't for the activity of Lvdr, Dandel Ion, iamperfection, Sideni, and Kronen. Fantastic play guys - especially Dandel Ion and Lvdr for sensing that something was wrong about the lynch candidates!
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-14 02:05:25
August 14 2012 02:03 GMT
#1137
I was just talking to Marv about that on IRC actually. Just want to say that I did not google your QT - I had no idea they were even searchable. I also had a red check on you N1, hence my sudden shift in suspicion. I hope you trust me enough to play a game with me in the future =(

However, QT's should not normally be searchable in google. For example, if you search my name (site:quicktopic.com Hapahauli), my scum game from Newbie XXI won't come up. If the host makes the QT private, it is not google searchable. Or so the internet tells me anyway.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 14 2012 02:07 GMT
#1139
Yeah that was sick by GK lol
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 14 2012 02:44 GMT
#1144
On August 14 2012 11:00 Shady Sands wrote:
Unfortunately, I don't think I can lay down my suspicions to play with you in the future.


Marv advised me to take it as a complement that my reads were so accurate that you thought I was reading the scum QT. Yet something like this pisses me off so much. I couldn't give two shits about what you think about the quality my play, but I do care when someone accuses me of cheating.

In the spoiler below is a brief rant. Read at your own discretion - it is not very kind.

+ Show Spoiler +
I put so much effort into Newbie XXIII. I have 10 pages of filter of questioning posters, getting information, and making reads. I'm proud of the effort I put into the game and how much I've improved since my first game (Newbie XX).

I put so much fucking effort into improving at this game, and you want to discredit me because I played too fucking well? Guess what, your scum-team had 10 POSTS between your buddies - what the hell did you think was going to happen? That I was going to herp-derp and mislynch the entire fucking town?

If you think I am a sick enough of a bastard to use all of this as a front to cheat, then fuck you.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-14 21:44:06
August 14 2012 18:13 GMT
#1160
On August 15 2012 01:25 YourHarry wrote:
...
but I would like to learn what makes a good scum hunting. Regardless of the result, was GK good lynch simply because he was lurking?


I wanted to comment on this because I feel a lot of the current town guides don't answer this question sufficiently. I'll likely do a writup on my thought-process during the game (scum-reads and whatnot), but for now, to your question (Take all of this FWIW - I've played a grand total of 3 games).

Index:
1) Common Knowledge is Worthless
2) Ask the Right Questions - "uncommon knowledge"
3) Find a Way to Answer These Questions Using Your Playstyle



Common Knowledge is Worthless

I feel that a lot of the "scumhunting" in newbie games is overly based on common knowledge. Due to the guides, newbies go into games thinking that all it takes to find mafia is to find a couple of common scumtells in someone's play. So on Day 1, the indecisive, inconsistent, and emotional player gets lynched on the basis of these "common" scumtells. 95% of the time, they flip town, a bunch of townies blame each other, and the cycle repeats.

The problem here, is that these "common" scumtells aren't always accurate (and argubly are rarely accurate). If everyone reads the guides and knows what these tells are, how can they be used to reliably scumhunt? In fact, scum will often consciously avoid these tells and run the town around in circles.

If you want a good example of this, look at Newbie XXI. My mafia teammates simply tunnel suspicion on a player or two without getting involved in the game at all. People should have been questioning them, yet on the basis of "common scumtells," they were viewed as townies until very late in the game.

It's worth saying that common scumtells may not be completely useless in Newbie games - I used these tells to catch my first mafia in Newbie XX (Hopeless1der). In addition, Promethelax was showing some common scumtells in this game - fingerpointing all over the place with little reasoning. However, all these tells will go out the window when you move into real games.



Ask the Right Questions

So if common scumtells are useless, then how do we scumhunt? The answer is to ask the right questions - this is the list I have so far:
  • Is this player genuninely trying to scum-hunt?
  • Is this player playing with extra information?
  • What story is this player trying to tell?


Is this player genuinenly trying to scum-hunt?
This is the #1 thing you should ask yourself when making a read on a player. If a player is sheeping on a popular suspicion or isn't providing much analysis, you need to question them and figure out if they're scum-hunting or not. All three mafia players fell under this player category this game. All too often, these types of players (see DrWiggles and Mufaa in XXI) are let off the hook because their play is "clean."

Of course this can go even deeper than this. If someone is "scum-hunting" in a different way than in a previous game, you should question their motives. If someone is tunneling a player too much even though they seem like a bad townie, you should question their motives. There is no "check-list" that you can use to answer this question.

Is this player playing with information?
This is a question I use to determine a bad townie froma mafia player. Think about how you think as a townie - you're always unsure of your reads, you commonly switch suspicions, and you're generally suspicious of everyone around you. This generally leads to very inconsistent play among townies who can't write or express their ideas very well. Yet these townies often end up getting lynched.

When you see inconsistent play, put yourself in a player's "shoes" and try to understand how they think. For example, look at Lvdr's play in Day 0.5 - he posted a lot of one liners and sheeped suspicion on a lot of players, yet I thought he was town. Why? Because he was thinking like a townie!

However, a Mafia player knows exactly who and who isn't town. Mafia can actually be very sure of themselves because they know exactly what's up. A player that takes forceful and confident opinions can very well be mafia, yet some players give this "confident and forceful" play as a strong townie read. Keep your mind open to all options and really try to figure out a player's mentality.

What story is this player trying to tell?
It's always important to understand the context of a player's actions rather than the actions themselves. It's easy for a player to make a case on individual inconsistent actions (Mafia do this quite often - see Promethelax and GoodKarma being obsessed with Sideni mixing up names in the thread). However, these cases are not always accurate unless you can put these actions into context. I actually defended Calgar on this basis in Newbie XXI. Even though I was mafia that game, I think my logic was pretty sound:

On July 19 2012 12:18 Hapahauli wrote:
Here are my thoughts on the Calgar case:

tl;dr - I think Calgar is very townie.

When looking for suspicious posts, its important to take the entire context of a person's play rather than individual posts. For example, I can dig through Jingle's filter and build a case on him for "suspicious and inconsistent play," yet Jingle is one of my very strong townie reads. Why? Because his play in full context shows a reckless player who tries to generate discussion - he's bound to have inconsistent/suspicious play based on his posting style alone.

In the case against Calgar, I'm seeing all his inconsistent posts brought to light while ignoring the context of his play and any pro-townie evidence in his favor.

So here's a question; has Calgar's play hurt or helped us this game? I'd say he helped us quite a bit. He generated a lot of discussion and got a lot of lurkers to talk. In Jingle's case, this is interpreted as him bandwagonning suspicion on several players before casting a vote on iamperfection. Calgar's fingerpointing play appears townie in full context.

Another point Jingle makes is his "me-too" bandwagonning on my suspicions/ideas. Again, in full context, this isn't suspicious. I assume that Calgar thinks his strongest townie reads are Jingle and I, and he's been actively trying to make peace with (and between) us. Just take a look at this post:

Show nested quote +

1. @jingle and @hapa – jesus christ guys chill out already. Your back and forth is unproductive, distracting, spammy, and most importantly, anti-town. That is reason enough to stop, immediately. Deal with your issues outside of the thread.


What part of this even makes sense from a mafia perspective? Why the hell would he attempt to break up a fight between us? Other than his last post to Jingle, he's been very active in trying to get on good terms with his top townie reads and stopped us from our distracting fight. This is 100% pure-colombian townie.

As a final point, while I see "inconsistency" in Calgar's play, I don't see any any attemps to lie, mislead, or deflect. Inconsistency is indicative of reckless townie play - misleading play is very very mafia oriented. I don't see any indication of the latter at all.

So before the town goes and bandwagons Calgar, ask yourself; is he really the most suspicious player here? Does he have any mafia-motive? In my opinion, no and no.




Find a Way to Answer These Questions Using Your Playstyle

The last step is playstyle - you need to find the best way for YOU to get the information needed to answer these questions. In my case, I like aggressively questioning players and ripping the answers out of them. Others like sitting back and "observing" the thread before chiming in with their reads. Many take a balance between the two styles.

There are advantages and disadvantages to different methods, but what's important is that you find a style that works for you.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 14 2012 20:58 GMT
#1162
On August 14 2012 16:34 Kronen wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 14 2012 09:38 Dandel Ion wrote:
On August 14 2012 09:34 Obvious.660 wrote:
Mother of god. Flawless victory?

Not flawless.
Kronen died. Get your shit together Kronen!


Sowwie... I'll try to play better next time


You played a solid game! I'd be a bit more open/opinionated with your reads in the future, but that's a largely stylistic choice. I found the giant "timeline" posts you made very very helpful in making my last few reads =)

On August 14 2012 16:51 Kronen wrote:
Sooooo re-game :D?


Feel free to sign up for on eof the other games - Newbie XXIV is full, but I imagine someone is going to start up XXV pretty soon.

a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-14 21:25:43
August 14 2012 21:22 GMT
#1163
@ YourHarry
On August 15 2012 01:25 YourHarry wrote:
...
Either way, could you guys analyze this game? I agree that Hapa definitely puts in a lot of effort, but I would like to learn what makes a good scum hunting. Regardless of the result, was GK good lynch simply because he was lurking?

How was town's analysis after GK's flipping scum? Is it safe to say that scum should bus in that situation? Scum Hapa or Lvdr busing GK hard, just because they were the first ones to start the lynch on GK, gave them almost confirmed town status? How can town deal with such scum actions, especially if detective does not exist or has been killed?

Was Shady scummy? Obviously Hapa had investigated him, so he knew. But how should other players have known that he is scummy. To me, it was simply sort of by choice of elimination, which again could be dangerous because scums could bus to kill their scum partner, Godfather or not. Godfather is better than a lowly goon only if there is a detective, and only if detective happens to investigate him, BTW. To me, Shady's opposing the sudden shift in votes (without much reason beside lurking) that seemed to secure the GK lynch looked town to me. Should I have analyzed this in another way?

I still don't understand what Sideni was trying to do. Anyone care to explain?


http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=58#1160
This is a follow up to the above link that deals more with in-game reads and whatnot:

Regardless of the result, was GK good lynch simply because he was lurking?


Obviously I like the lynch in hindsight, but I still wouldn't mind the lynch even if GK flipped town. Firstly, it wasn't a policy lynch - GK really didn't contribute much to the town at that point. I had mentioned that he was tunneling suspicion on two players with existing suspicion, and that sort of stuff doesn't help town.

As for why I picked GK in particular... there weren't many other options. I had picked out Axero GK and Promethelax as my top lynch targets toward the end of the day. They were the only players who I didn't have some sort of town read on. What GK's day 1 death comes down to was an inactive mafia - mafia got lazy and didn't establish themselves as town. Mafia let the townies establish too many town-reads on other players, and by process of elimination, GK got lynched Day 1.

TBH, I really like lynch-lurker policies - It's a situation where at worst, you lynch a townie that's not contributing too much, and at best, you lynch the godfather. In newbie games, I think you can pick off less-active mafia on day 1 with this play very often.

Is it safe to say that scum should bus in that situation? Scum Hapa or Lvdr busing GK hard, just because they were the first ones to start the lynch on GK, gave them almost confirmed town status?


I think a case could have been made for a mafia member to place a vote on GK, but even then, that's really tough given how sudden the lynch came about. That's why I eliminated bussing as a possibility pretty early on.

However, I don't think mafia should ever bus seriously in that situation. For example, if GK came flying into the thread incredibly pissed and emotional that he was getting lynched, there's NO WAY that the lynch would fly.

How can town deal with such scum actions, especially if detective does not exist or has been killed?


That's what analysis is for
See my post at the end of page 58:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=58#1160

Was Shady scummy? Obviously Hapa had investigated him, so he knew. But how should other players have known that he is scummy. To me, it was simply sort of by choice of elimination, which again could be dangerous because scums could bus to kill their scum partner, Godfather or not. Godfather is better than a lowly goon only if there is a detective, and only if detective happens to investigate him, BTW. To me, Shady's opposing the sudden shift in votes (without much reason beside lurking) that seemed to secure the GK lynch looked town to me. Should I have analyzed this in another way?


Regarding my check on Shady - mkfuba was my original DT check choice, and I changed my mind later in the day. I checked Shady primarily because of my post here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=46#909

I thought Promethelax name-dropping Shady was strange, and I couldn't get the possibility that Shady was mafia out of my mind despite my earlier town read on him. What it ultimately came down to was that I thought that I could get mkfuba lynched regardless of my DT check on him. Therefore, I checked Shady... and well we know what happened.

In hindsight, Shady doing very little on Day 1, as well as Shady's play near the lynch deadline should have alerted me more than it did initially. I think your reads on Shady were fine and within reason - it's hard to get something like that right with only one day of information. I was pretty much on the same boat as you until I DT checked him. That's something you keep on the back of your mind and try to make sense of it with more information later in the game.
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