Newbie Mini Mafia XXII - Page 5

On August 03 2012 23:42 JingleHell wrote:If you don't understand how I think it's fishy that someone (to paraphrase) wants me to not tunnel and then adds evidence to the only case I've made I can't help you. What I can do is remember that there's probably a fair number of active scum left, and wonder why you're defending Ange so staunchly when he's not even in danger at the moment

On August 03 2012 06:59 JingleHell wrote:


An ad hom attack to continue to ignore the difference between an uninformative answer and an explained motive.

So many sheep it's probably going to fly.

Should I just go ahead and congratulate you on the scum win now, or shall I wait?

This will be my last response to your effort to clutter the thread. Explain your motive or I waste no more time on you. My vote stays put.

On August 03 2012 06:47 JingleHell wrote:
Frankly, in newbie games, the guy who seems like he's been huffing a mixture of model glue, jet fuel, and plutonium, usually is huffing a mixture of model glue, jet fuel, and plutonium. Thus, Zork could be scum, just like anyone else, but frankly, he's not my first target.

I don't consider you telling me you already suspected Shady to be explaining your motive. You wanted me to be after multiple people, but you were happy to just pile evidence on the guy I was already looking at.

Saying you already had your eye on him is telling me an action. Not telling me what, from a townie perspective, could motivate that action (hence "motive").

On August 03 2012 08:38 JingleHell wrote:


I'm still just worried about the Angus beef, who wanted me to read on everyone, but reinforced the only read I'd posted right after. Call me crazy, but every time I've tried to think of a townie motive for that, I've sounded to myself like I was the one smoking crack cooked in the ruins of Chernobyl.

Given how things have gone so far, we're going to need to get the entire town united on somebody, which, I expect, includes most of the sheep.

On August 04 2012 01:01 goodkarma wrote:
So NO ONE has changed their votes lol.

I'll say this now: Shady hasn't participated in over a day... If he had participated to any degree this past 24 hours town would have been in much better shape now. Town had a great opportunity to get back into this game by rallying behind him, but now that opportunity is slipping through our fingers...

Considering the stubbornness with which both JingleHell and Zork have voted for their candidates and haven't tried to help with securing a lynch majority, it is clear as day to me that they are scum.

Then there is only one scum remaining, and he is voting FOR ONE OF THE TWO CANDIDATES with four votes. With Zork pegged as scum, one of the three remaining people is also scum: alan133, aRyuujin, Darthpunk.

I said before that I would stand by Shady Sands, after he had already voted for Mord. Instead of helping town, he's afked, and in the process has let town down . I am nearly 100% certain at this point that Mord. is innocent, but shady is only confirmed town meaning EVERY TOWN REMAINING would have to vote for the other candidate, Zork, for Zork to be lynched. That's simply not going to happen. And at this point, it feels just as unlikely that whichever other two town are on Mord. will be changing their votes... In other words, I'm pretty sure today is no-lynch.

There is also the possibility that JingleHell and Zork would tack onto the innocent candidate bandwaggon, which could secure the majority, but would condemn them as scum. I don't see that happening, though honestly it is their best move (lol) since it would guarantee LYLO for town.

Ironically, if town no lynches today, a situation I hadn't considered, town in fact still isn't in LYLO.

This is a situation I hadn't accounted for, but the complete gridlock in the voting has clearly demonstrated where some of the scum are. A lot of information has been presented from voting patterns even without a lynch.

So while I could switch my vote to an innocent man, and stay true to my word, I prefer hypocrisy.

My plan with Shady as leader is still the best chance for town, and hopefully town will realize that tomorrow. But the biggest component of that plan, Shady himself, needs to become proactive in rallying town together for that plan to work.

Further, if we were just to lynch: Zork and JingleHell the next two days, and cop were to survive, then:

We could go from a 1/3 chance to catch the last scum and win to a much better chance (not 100%... the last scum could still be godfather..., ((1/3)(1/3)+(1)(2/3))*100 = ~78% if you really wanted to know).

I know that some might consider everything I've just said speculation, but nothing in this game is certain. I strongly believe that today's voting patterns have pegged two scum, and provided us the place to look for the last one. I look forward to hearing everyone's opinions tonight.

On August 04 2012 01:07 JingleHell wrote:
Ok, trying to say "You're next because you don't agree with me", when there's not some sort of rock solid evidence...

You're right, I've been too stubborn. People aren't ready to vote for Ange.

##Unvote
##Vote GK

You seem awfully convinced that certain people are scum based on flips that haven't happened, and that's kind of an obvious slip.

On August 04 2012 01:02 JingleHell wrote:


I'm actually more nervous about Obvious's reasoning for the way he addressed me here than I am about what he suggested. I already explained why I think it's a silly scenario, but I have a natural distrust for people who try to win me over on WIFOM and diplomacy, rather than a good case.

On July 30 2012 18:57 Obvious.660 wrote:
Of the remaining people, outside of myself and Promethelax, we have alan133 and DarthPunk who did not vote for Golbat. Since I have already gone back and forth with Promethelax and found his reasons for voting for Shady Sands similar to but above and beyond my own, there are two players remaining to look at.

---

First I'll take a look at alan133's posts:

Some behavior analysis: consistent in his methods for determining his best scum target. His vote on Shady Sands was not willy-nilly, and he considered the cases against Golbat and Mordanis as well before casting his vote. Solid play on this end, in my opinion, at least throughout D1.


At this point there were 5 votes for Golbat. Two possibilities for this rather well timed post:
Town alan133 wants to make sure we don't get into a no-lynch scenario, as that gives us little to work with for actual information that can be 100% confirmed (a flip)
or
Scum alan133 is setting himself up to ensure a mislynch won't end up looking bad on him if he has to put his vote in as the one of the last people on the Golbat vote list.
Of these two scenarios, I'm more easily convinced that alan133 is acting in the best interests of the town. I did want to mention this though if any suspicions arise regarding his votes or actions in the future.

I have a question for alan133:
How did you make sense of goodkarma's post regarding Keirathi? I'm not really able to pinpoint exactly where that case even is, so you'll need to point it out for me, please.

---

DarthPunk's filter:

So the first thing I notice after processing the first half of my post here is that DarthPunk and alan133 both ended up posting around the time where Golbat was at 5 votes. DarthPunk also explained that he would be willing to change his vote from Mordanis to Golbat to avoid a mislynch with his post 40 minutes later. Sounds appropriate given the situation, from a town perspective. But again, we're at the two scenarios as above where we're either seeing avoiding looking bad for the mislynch, or staying around to ensure there is a lynch.

It seems his main reason for staying on Mordanis is motivated by finding Mordanis' play as confusing to the town as well as not being convinced about his own case(s).

---

So are they connected somehow?

Outside of their willingness to switch votes, here's all I can see:

• No direct mention of alan133 in DarthPunk's filter.
  
• alan133 doesn't agree with DarthPunk's assessment of Mordanis in this post:
  + Show Spoiler +
  On July 27 2012 12:23 DarthPunk wrote:
  

  Show nested quote +
  

  On July 27 2012 11:54 Shady Sands wrote:
  

  On July 27 2012 10:17 DarthPunk wrote:
  So I just read through the thread and the first post that really sprang out at me was this.
  
  
  + Show Spoiler +

  
  

  On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote:
  Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game:
  
        Mordanis's's case on Keirathi
  K (for some reason your name is really hard for me to type) began this game by virtually claiming Town RB. + Show Spoiler +

  On July 27 2012 05:41 Keirathi wrote:
  First things first:
  
  If we have a town roleblocker, I think its best not to use your role early. You generally have as much chance of hurting a teamate as you do a scum. I'm not saying to NEVER use it, but think carefully and only use it if you are reasonably sure that you are blocking a scum.
  
  Some policy discussion:
  
  Lynch All Liars - I'm of the opinion that there are very, very few cases where lying as a townie is beneficial to town. With that said, there ARE cases where it is a realistic option, so I think blanket policy lynching is a fairly bad thing. Case-by-case basis.
  
  Lynch All Lurkers - As much as lurking hurts town, I feel like at least in newbie games, lurking is almost guaranteed. I encourage everyone to try as hard as they can to avoid lurking sot hat we won't have to discuss this later. Lurking as a townie hurts town. Please don't do it. Again, case-by-case basis.
  
  Are all roleblocks notified, or only people with power roles?
  I've seen games where it works both ways, so best to clarify early.
  

  
  

  . Now this may have been a case of extreme newbiness, which would be understandable, but Mr. K has played in at least 2 other games, so I believe he knew how this post would be interpreted. This brings up 3 possibilities:
  
  1: Mr. K is VT, and he is trying to "take one for the team". He knows that the scum will see this post and read him blue, and he'll die tonight instead of a real blue. If this were to happen, he'd have helped town. If he gets lynched today, it'll be bad for town, but it will be deal-with-able.
  
  2: Mr. K is actually townie RB. Perhaps he is trying to make his "claim" so obvious the scum will think option 1 is happening. Trying to hide out in the open. If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. That said, he implied that he wouldn't want to use it N1 anyway, so the options are virtually the same.
  
  3: Mr. K is scum, and is trying to use this as means to get himself out of trouble. If he ever gets some heat brought to him, he just says "Dude, I basically claimed town RB, I don't think its a good idea to lynch me" The claim also puts pressure on any real blues to claim, and when everyone claims, a claim isn't worth anything. Basically, this post seems mildly non-protown, and it gives him a way to defend himself. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And if this option is the case, scum aren't killing him tonight.
  
  Of these three, option 2 seems by far the least probable. So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Still, its pretty early so I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now. Last thing: I have to go to work now, and I'll be back in probably 5 hours (rakin in the cash makin pizza), just FYI.

  
  

  
  
  So after some policy discussion Mordanis makes his case against Keirathi. After some WIFOM we get to this -
  
  

  If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once.

  
  
  So Keirathi is blue and we are in bad shape if he is NK/Lynched.
  but then we get to this:
  
  

  If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start.

  
  
  And this:
  
  

  So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching.

  
  
  Twice stating that Keirath is is our best lynch at the moment which is a direct contradiction to his other premise.
  
  he ends with this:
  

  I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now

  
  
  So after backflipping from his first premise (that it would be terribad for Keirathi to be NK and an even worse for us to mislynch him), and TWICE stating that Keirathi is our best Lynch. Mordanis decides that it isn't wise to commit right now after all.
  
  This post was WIFOM, contradiction and confusion. At best it is saying something while saying nothing. At worst it is a deliberate attempt of scum to mislynch their blue read day 1.
  
  

  Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me.

  
  
  Yeah it does doesn't it.
  
  FoS Mordanis

  
  
  I'm not sure we can use internal contradictions between Mordanis' three different points as evidence, given that they are illustrating three different "what-ifs". That being said, though, his logic as to why point #2 is the least likely and point #3 is the most likely doesn't hold water (or rather, doesn't exist), and each of his points are pretty farfetched.
  
  I'd say he's our best option for a day 1 lynch at this point, but to be extra sure, we should wait until Ange777 has had a chance to post as well, and Mordanis gets back from making pizzas and has had a chance to defend himself.
  
  Even if he flips green (which is likely, let's not get our hopes up here), his lynch will tell us a lot about who we should go after next, since people seem to have had strong reactions to both his proposal to go after Keir, his own lynching, and his arguments against policy lynching.

  
  
  -He posts 3 different scenario's on Keir which contradicted one another (he states these as a 'case', whatever). 2 of the 3 have Keir as a blue and the third as scum. Yet he still sees Keir as the best lynch. The case is completely confused and without a logical narrative, based on a 'virtual claim' by Keirathi that I honestly don't think is there. There is no reason whatsoever that I can think of to make a case with internal contradictions. Am I missing something here?
  
  -It is statistically likely that he will flip green. but you can say that about anyone. If you think he is town or not suspicious don't vote for him. Read filters, make a case etc.
  
  
  For this reason:
  + Show Spoiler +
  On July 27 2012 12:46 alan133 wrote:
  I refreshed to forum I see Mordanis is currently under fire for his post. After reading Darth's case I don't think he is a good day 1 lynch for the following reason.
  

  • The only fault I see in his post is that Mordanis put words into Keirathi's mouth, with his sketchy logic based on his assumption that Kei role claimed.
    
  • Those "contradictory" scenarios are not contradictory because it is not related to each other.
    
  • Mordanis is the first person to bring out a case. Ignoring WIFOM, this is a town favored trait.
    
  
  

I don't see any obvious connections here. The only things they had in common so far really was they didn't vote for Golbat, and both were willing to change votes. This tells me nothing of either of them individually but leads me to believe that they are not necessarily of the same alignment.

On August 05 2012 19:24 DarthPunk wrote:


What? you had suspicions that that is where I was going before I even accused you? Is this because it is the one thing you are afraid of people thinking?

On August 05 2012 19:29 DarthPunk wrote:
EPWOP: They were far ahead. Zork was inactive and not contributing, had suspicions raised against him several times. It would be a smart play to trade the most obvious member of their scum team for lots of town credit and 2 further mislynches (which you have prepared beforehand.) That is getting further ahead. That is winning the game.

On July 29 2012 06:02 ghost_403 wrote:
FINAL VOTE COUNT FOR DAY 1:

aRyuujin ( 1 ): Golbat,
Golbat ( 7 ): Ange777, aRyuujin, goodkarma, Keirathi, Mordanis, Shady Sands, Zorkmid,
Mordanis ( 1 ): DarthPunk,
Shady Sands ( 3 ): alan133, Obvious.660, Promethelax,

Golbat was lynched by the town!

MrMedic has been pardoned for failing to vote.