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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
If scum had resigned I would have thought the Endgame was going to happen sooner. For instance once Mattchew was lynched and half-way through this night. If the Endgame happens RIGHT with the Day Post, it may have something to do with blue roles or something. Winning to scum resignation isn't fun  | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 21 2012 06:12 s0Lstice wrote: yea 2 mason with nothing else on town side seems alright to me but then again i know fuck all about balance xD lol I am seriously so much more pro-town then everyone else balance-wise i guess that's what happens when you're 0-4 as town (soon to be 1-4 :D) | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
mayybe we got a vigi shot? | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Having RBer without blues seems like a waste, also a GF without cops and shit, and kind of the opposite of the C9++ thingy, but meh it has happened before (scum get "blue-stopping roles" when there are no blue roles like that to begin with). | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 21 2012 06:13 sciberbia wrote: lol I am seriously so much more pro-town then everyone else balance-wise i guess that's what happens when you're 0-4 as town (soon to be 1-4 :D) Yea, I kind of am the same way, but its more because of history. I have like ~1000 games played of IRC mafia, but at some point, we all got bored of just being VTs all the time. When games end fast, you need something to spice up the monotony of doing nothing for half of the game. So we came up with all kinds of setups with crazy roles, but most of them ended up being fairly town-favored | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
RB + GF + goon vs mason + mason seems a bit odd for C9++ i think we're missing something | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On July 21 2012 06:15 sciberbia wrote: risen is the only scum I could possibly see resigning here. mayybe we got a vigi shot? Dropbear could have resigned. Hell ANY scum could have resigned. The remaining scum has to survive 3 FREAKING LYNCHES to win. Considering you+Milton+Keirathi+solstice are basically out of the question, the remaining scum is between me+S&B+Risen+Dropbear....which means he has to get ALL the guys lynched in that group before him (also he won't lynch me, therefore he will get lynched before me, therefore he will lose). So yeah, no matter who is the scum (Risen, Dropbear......or hell maybe even S&B) he'll likely lose I dunno why he didn't resign before though, either resign soon or go all the way! | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
...why didn't you guys claim as soon as D1 started? >_> Having austin as "confirmed town" on D1 would have greatly helped, and so you (you weren't really "super pro-town guy" by that time). I guess after D2 there wasn't much point in claiming, since like I said you were the "most townie guys out there", but why didn't you claim on D1 which was before all that shit happened? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
I made some pretty questionable plays. I still feel like I could possibly be lynched. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
it would take some serious patience to hold that shot for two nights though | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 21 2012 06:19 s0Lstice wrote: it could very well be a vig shot, we'll have to see. it would take some serious patience to hold that shot for two nights though You're right. If I was vig, I would have shot the fuck out of Mattchew on night 2. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
sciberbia's approach to the 1st lynch: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:42 sciberbia wrote: OK guys we have to lynch today! I think there is least resistance to a dropbear lynch. I'd be willing to consolidate on dropbear. Is anyone strongly opposed to a dropbear lynch? Here he is willing to vote for dropbear because there is "least resistance" to a dropbear lynch. This does not sit well with me, particularly because earlier he had posted this regarding dropbear. On July 14 2012 06:18 sciberbia wrote: Sorry I just spotted this while going through your filter. In short, I am pretty neutral on him. His first post feels townie to me. His next couple posts feel sketchy. His vote on vivax is not a scumtell IMO. I think scum would be extremely wary of voting with so little reasoning. His conviction in a talis & vivax scumteam seems a bit suspicious. I really just don't have a strong feel on him one way or the other. I don't see how he's willing to consolidate on DropBear when earlier he's got a pretty neutral read on him. Most townies will do their best to push whichever lynch they think is better. If you look at our 2nd and 3rd lynch, sciberbia pushed pretty hard for the lynches to go his way. I've come to suspect that our first lynch was between two townies, considering the fact that now I have a fairly strong town read on DropBear. Townies didn't know that at the time and would have been extremely invested in the lynch. Scum would know that we were picking between two townies, and thus wouldn't care as much. Sciberbia didn't seem too invested in our 1st lynch, especially compared to how hard he pushed these last two lynch efforts. True, sciberbia did qualify his statement with this On July 14 2012 06:44 sciberbia wrote: @Risen I'd love to lynch Vivax at this point but there just doesn't seem to be enough support for it. but I still feel like he wasn't truly invested in how the 1st lynch turned out. I'm also wary of how easily he was convinced of Vivax's townieness. On July 14 2012 06:55 sciberbia wrote: oh ow NOW vivax is giving me a really townie feel. Does anybody else see his last two posts as townie? This sudden change of opinion feels rather forced. I feel like it's a bit of a show. sciberbia's approach to the 2nd lynch: + Show Spoiler + We all know the story, he pushed the talismania lynch really hard. I feel like both Mattchew and sciberbia came out of nowhere and put their full weight behind a talismania lynch. I don't remember who posted this, but they said that if sciberbia had bussed talismania it would have been an "old school style bus" where the player tunnels their scum buddy hardcore. Well we now know that's what Mattchew did, why not sciberbia too? This is a minor point and it could be incorrect, but with Mattchew so all-in on a talismania lynch I almost find it likely that his scumbuddy was also pushing for a tali lynch. Why get town cred for one player when you can get it for two, correct? Here are a few examples of him pushing the talismania lynch. Hopefully you can spot the differences between his attitude in the D1 lynch and the D2 lynch. On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote: I feel much better about my reads right now than I did D1. Here are top 3 most suspicious: 1) talismania: I really want to lynch him. 2) gonzaw: I have a few minor points against him, but other than that it's gut feeling. He reminds me a lot of mafia Xatalos from NMM XV. gonzaw and talis are linked as scumbuddies in my mind. I want to see talis flip red before we lynch gonzaw. 3) keirathi: still seems somewhat suspicious; mostly for reasons I've already stated I really need a break from this game so I'm just going to make a case on talismania before getting some much-needed sleep. It's almost 7am here. I'll post thoughts on other people tomorrow. My case on talismania fixation on his plan This has already been talked about in other cases; those of austinmcc and miltonkram I believe. It's a bit weird how wrapped up he gets in proposing his plan, defending his plan, and analyzing reactions to his plan. In particular, I find his assemblage of reactions suspicious: + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 00:43 talismania wrote: Reactions to talismania's Shitty Plan (for those who care) + Show Spoiler + marvellosity On July 12 2012 09:47 marvellosity wrote: naw, I'm not killing anyone based on one post right at the beginning of the game (especially as pregame was quite active/friendly, it spilled over) I'd rather lynch talis for his never-ending bullshit on listing names and reasons. Seriously, 24 hours into day 1 and we're supposed to come up with reasons on 3 different people for why they might be scum? It's just nonsense. Or... wait for it... I have an idea! If someone says something a person finds scummy, they can call them out and bring it to the thread! Wow, marv, you say - an amazing plan! People shouldn't be 'forced' to make effort, the making of the effort willingly is what helps gives us our reads on people. Predictably shits on it, suggests policy lynching me out of his annoyance that I keep proposing these dumb plans. gonzaw On July 12 2012 09:36 gonzaw wrote: So, if the lynch was right now I'd want to kill one of these 3 guys: You can see the recurring theme in all 3 (just 1 post, promising something/appearing they are eager to start but not doing anything else later). marv, talismania, anybody active, what do you think about these guys? If you had to kill one of them which one would you choose and why? (if you don't want to kill anyone then say so). Also this guy could die too: But at least he put a little bit more effort (although that's not town-telling) Dropbear and Milton haven't even posted, but well we can't do anything about it. Actually follows the plan - as I said seems rather townie. Especially the timing. Mattchew On July 12 2012 10:46 Mattchew wrote: Also, talis has the worst plan ever with his 3 people thing. That just allows people to half ass push some stupid reads and then connections theories run wild and everything turns to shit shits on it solstice On July 12 2012 11:04 s0Lstice wrote: Keirathi, assuming you are still around... why so verbose about lurkers? what do you think of talismania's plan? I actually don't see him reacting to it at all yet he asks keirathi about it. Interesting. He did react to gonzaw's post reacting to mine. austinmcc On July 12 2012 11:33 austinmcc wrote: That's because there's basically nothing to my first post except "Millers claim," which isn't helpful. What I can add is that I think talismania's 3-case plan is bad, but that seems to be the general sentiment. Forcing arbitrary requirements on everyone isn't really going to help us, and is going to clog up the thread later. People are going to make halfhearted cases to try to reach that number, someone will inevitably only find 1-2 people scummy and we'd end up in some "does x not making 3 cases = scummy?" discussion, and we also might end up lynching people that EVERYONE finds a little bit scummy rather than someone that a few people have a strong scumread on for good reasoning. Can also add that I haven't played with gonzaw, but I've obsed his recent games. Anyone here feel like they do a good job reading him, and if so, can you post some tips? I've found that I almost always end up reading him as scum, because he is active enough and posts enough that I keep finding scummy things to latch on to. Had him scum at the end of liar game just prior to the katina lynch, but also found him really scummy in the recent MTG because I felt like some of the plans he pushed hard were anti-town (check the obsqt early on, although I didn't post much there). So...any magical tricks for getting the right read on Gonzaw? Actually this reads scummy again on the second go-round too. He says he's about to "add" something but literally just copies/expands on what marv said and doesn't add anything at all. Keirathi On July 12 2012 11:54 Keirathi wrote: Sorry was getting dinner. I was verbose because I have some shared experience with sciberbia, whom I was replying to. I know that most (all?) of his TL mafia experience was in newbie games, and the dynamic is just different when you can assume that people know how to play the game. As far as talismania's plan, I feel like it makes it too easy for mafia to blend in. The more townies you have making arguments against other townies, the easier you can push mislynches and not have to take any blame for them. There are other things wrong with it, but Mattchew and austin beat me to it. No need rehashing what they said. Mmm I think this is innocuous. He might not even have responded if he hadn't been asked to. DropBear On July 12 2012 15:18 DropBear wrote: This is silly. This isn't going to happen and would just waste time. On the majority lynch, day 1 this tends to be a right kerfuffle. I can't think of any system that has ever worked on day 1 in games I have been part of. So fuck a system, we deal with it when the time comes. There should be solid candidates by then anyway. Actually this doesn't sit that well with me at all. Conversation had started to move on and then he brings it back to my plan and says the same shit everyone else did. I also don't like his misrepresentation of my views on the roleblocker's use of their power. strongandbig On July 12 2012 16:51 strongandbig wrote: Hey bros For people who weren't in ssb or mtg mafias, just wanted to let you guys know I am currently in Europe, where I don't have a cell phone data plan. This means I can only post when I have wifi, which is a change from my normal method. I've also been busy at work so please don't expect much from me before 8pm CET. Now for serious stuff: I'm going to be watching marv like a motherfuking hawk. I think hosts tend to try to "balance" games sometimes by tweaking their scum team selection; however, that can and has led to extra info from town through balance speculation. Marvellosity makes an extremely tempting player for hosts to do this kind of balancing, because his scum play is empirically very good, but he isn't a "veteran" so he's not likely to be the subject of balance speculation. I also suspect bugs of doing this kind of balancing. + Show Spoiler [reasons, from wheel of fortune.] + The last of his c++ games I played in was wheel of fortune. That was a stacked game and I was one of the worst players in it, although I did eventually manage to figure out the scum team (and got shot for having correct reads before I could push some of them). With the benefit of hindsight, that scum team looks almost perfectly balanced for the player base. Radfield was town, ace was scum. VE and Forumite were both good players, but only on the edge of being full-on vets. I firmly believe that town would have won that game if Radfield hadn't decided to use a DT check on Ace, who was godfather. That kind of closeness is the sign of a well-balanced game; and the odds that both town and scum would have their best player as their best power role are very small from pure chance. So what does this mean? I am NOT proposing to policy lynch marvellosity; if he's town he can be a great asset, and besides that's totally against the spirit of the game. What I AM saying is that I think when someone points out something scummy he does, we should take it pretty seriously. Pure chance wouldn't explain why he has rolled scum in something like half his games since our first game together (noob 6) while I have rolled it once - him being good and me not does explain that. NOW: having told you why you should pay attention, I'm going to point out something scummy marv has done. That thing is: propose/say he would be okay with lynching Talismania. Talismania's plan IS anti town. When Ace is host and he tells an obs QT how good a plan is for scum, you better believe he knows what he's talking about. Systematic case proposing plans give scum an excuse to make shitty reads and blend in, because everyone is making shitty cases and dumb reads. That kind of plan dilutes good information and adds bad information. HOWEVER: Talismania proposes this plan as town. All the time. Like, every game. Usually "pushing scummy plans" is a decent scum tell; but this specific player pushing this specific plan is not. And Marvellosity should know this. Marv has obs'd at least two games where Talismania proposed this plan or a variation of it (ssb, bangbang). Tali has proposed this in other games. Marv is the kind of player who pays attention; he should also know that I've pushed tali hard for these plans in the past, as have others. Marv putting tali forward as his first lynch candidates comes down to an easy push on an easy target for reasons he should know are bad. Marv, I'm watching you. + Show Spoiler [on Talismania, briefly] + I'm not saying tali is an easy target in general, like kenpachi or grush would be. He's not that kind of shitty player slash bad case magnet. It's just that for marv to propose him for lynch based on that plan is scummy. He's right about me always pushing this idea althoguh I think he's overreacting to marv's reaction. So actually not that many people commented on it even though I thought like everyone did oops. My views: scummy responses: austinmcc, dropbear null responses: marv, mattchew, keirathi, strongandbig townie response: gonzaw did not respond directly although was in the thread: Risen, sciberbia, solstice This just feels like one of those busy-work summaries that scum do to make it look like they are contributing. It also ties in with his insisting that his plan has promoted discussion. Overall, all this talk about the plan is unproductive and slightly suspicious. consistently wishy/washy Here are some examples of some wishy/washiness. Several of these raise yellow flags for me: + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 07:54 talismania wrote:I don't like milkton's last post either. There's a touch of omgus to my feelings there but I also think his argument he just made about me doesn't make much sense. Although come to think of it I dunno why he would come in out of the cold and start making a case on me does seem a bit random as scum. austin's reply to my poke at his post was rather overwrought which fits with my model of him as nervous scum but I guess that could just be the way the guy is too. solstice you said you know him - what do you make of it? + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 01:32 talismania wrote: solstice: I really like the case marv made on him, actually, but for some reason I don't know if I can move beyond a null on him. Like I think the first half of his filter is scummy (the part marv showed), the second half townie. Overall he is playing fairly relaxed, which is usually a town indicator as well. On the other hand he's also been fairly focused on just a couple players, which is a scum indicator. Keirathi: Well he's conditional town or conditional scum at this point. Like I think he was way too neutral in the beginning as someone else pointed out but he's also onto dropbear as I am. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 01:43 talismania wrote: actually that is a decent question. I originally ranked them that way in my head from way back when I analyzed reactions to my posts and it sort of has stuck since then. Mmm I guess thinking it over I can't think of a fantastic reason for one over the other to be honest with you. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:00 talismania wrote: @risen I don't know what to make of the risen v vivax to be honest. I liked your case against him but I'm still stuck on dropbear. and if dropbear is scum I can't see vivax being scum either. mmm I better not be tunneling again like I did last time to HiroPro. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:08 talismania wrote: I dunno. I'm starting to think my case on austin is actually stronger than my case on dropbear was in the first place to be perfectly honest. However milton and keirathi also brought up good points on dropbear I think. Unless they were just trying to nudge a bandwagon along? Mmm shit. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote: I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. especially that last one. seriously wtf.. I don't like his approach to the lynch I feel like we were just lynching between a bunch of townies yesterday. If I had to guess, I'd say there is only 1 scum between our many lynch candidates: dropbear, vivax, miltonkram, s0Lstice, austinmcc, risen, and keirathi. So I think the mafia must have felt very at ease and not really cared too much who actually got lynched. Talis was just too calm in the hour leading up to the lynch. For example, what was he doing in between these two posts: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:08 talismania wrote: I dunno. I'm starting to think my case on austin is actually stronger than my case on dropbear was in the first place to be perfectly honest. However milton and keirathi also brought up good points on dropbear I think. Unless they were just trying to nudge a bandwagon along? Mmm shit. Where has gonzaw gone? I kinda expect him to be in here cracking the whip near deadline. On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote: I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. This was a crucial 31 minutes. I don't think any of us actually had any idea who would end up being lynched at this time. But what was talis doing? Looks like he was just sitting around waiting for us to lynch a townie. In the last hour before the lynch, he really does nothing productive at all. He just says a bunch of neutralish things that don't really go anywhere. I also have serious problems with this post just after we lynched vivax: For reference, here is the full extent of his defense on Vivax: Seriously? He says that he hopes he is "completely wrong" about vivax, but he hardly defended Vivax at all. If he really felt strongly about Vivax being town, he should have been positively shouting at people like me/marv/austin/strongandbig to put votes on dropbear instead of vivax, especially seeing as dropbear was supposedly his #1 scumread. But he was just saying useless shit like this: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote: I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. On July 14 2012 06:54 talismania wrote: argh wtf I don't want to swtich but I will if we need too. On July 14 2012 06:57 talismania wrote: jesus risen why are you so excited? According to what talis has said, he really thought dropbear was scum, and he really thought vivax was town. I was a hell of a lot less sure than talis supposedly was, and even I was more invested in the lynch. All of his posts leading up to the lynch seriously bother me. throws suspicion on easy targets (my townreads) He throws suspicion on a bunch of easy targets: dropbear, austin, risen, s0Lstice, milton. In fact, he threw suspicion onto just about every lynch candidate, and onto nobody that was not a lynch candidate. His reads are just going with the flow. I feel like he is just gonzaw's parrot. He's quite friendly with both gonzaw and marv (people with most thread control IMO). does not defend his townreads He never makes an against-the-grain townread. In his entire filter, I don't think he defends anybody at all. He supposedly had townreads on vivax, strongandbig, and mattchew, all 3 of which were under fire at some point, and none of which he did any defending for. This is suspicious to me. I have a really good feeling about this case. Can we please lynch talis today? ##Vote talismania I'd just like to note how sciberbia has laid his plan out here. Have you noticed him deviate from his plan of lynching talismania, then pursuing a lynch against gonzaw? He hasn't. I find this incredibly suspicious since town will often deviate from any plans they make whenever new evidence presents itself. It's far more likely for scum to make a plan and then follow it through to completion. Here's a few other examples of him pushing the tali lynch. On July 16 2012 08:53 sciberbia wrote: @s0Lstice Can you look at the cases on talis and reread his filter? I want your opinion on him. I really think we should lynch him. On July 16 2012 09:02 sciberbia wrote: @gonzaw I'll post my thoughts on s&b next. Please post your most current thoughts on talis. Do you recall sciberbia pushing the Vivax lynch this hard? I sure don't. Shit, I just noticed that the endgame is being posted. I'll just toss this out there and see if I was correct. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
'everyone already viewed me as town anyway' is not a good enough reason. there is a HUGE difference between looking town and confirmed town | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I was extremely confident that everyone would believe us if and when we decided to claim, so there was like 0% danger in my mind of either of us ever getting lynched. Besides the fact that I'm pretty good at looking town (as town), we also had breadcrumbs and could c+p from our QT. I just didn't see us getting lynched. I wanted to keep our confirmed townies alive and not get NK'd. 2 confirmed townies with 7 players left is a hell of a lot better than 0. here is some chat from our mason QT + Show Spoiler + I think if we're crumbed we'll be fine, and if we're crumbed AND can copy from QT, we're golden. It's way too risky for scum to fakeclaim mason buddies anyway once a real claim pops up. I don't think we can ask questions all the time, but it's not out of place at all to do so. I haven't been a big questioner in the past, so I won't do much of it, but I think we should do some. Even little things like...say we've got a scumread. Mason1 pushes a case on DX, but the thread goes another direction and lynches someone else. Mason2 can pop in that night or the next day, bring up someone our scumread said or did that was scummy, and ask Mason1 whether he's still interested in lynching the target. To me that's valuable, helps establish Mason1 as someone that may have good thoughts because other folks are agreeing with him, and it maybe directs town towards focusing on the candidate we want to push. I'm also probably overestimating what we're going to be able to do, but i DO think that our reads together will be better than solo reads, and that there's some merit to pushing our agenda, assuming we have one. 8 sciberbia 07-11-2012 10:17 PM ET (US) confirmed from NSH: we are allowed to copy + paste from the mason QT. So our claim will have some extremely solid credibility. Just not allowed to give them the link to the QT itself, obviously. about (3): I was thinking that it might look a little suspicious if I were to ask you, "So austin, what do you think about player_X?" There's no real reason for mason partners to do this, but scum partners do have motivation to say things like this. But it's not a big deal. Like I've said, I don't think we'll have any trouble getting people to believe our claim anyway. So I'll defer to your wisdom on this point. I can see discussing in-thread with each other could help us control the thread. 7 austinmcc 07-11-2012 10:10 PM ET (US) I'm still fine with not claiming, so I guess we're in agreement there. I'll crumb something tomorrow. I'll mainly be playing from work during the day, with a little evening play as well. But I'll make sure to have something set up, and hopefully there will be more activity in thread for us to discuss. Unsure on your (3). I'm not usually a big questioner, and Marv knows this, but I think it's worth directly addressing each other if we really want to push someone as a scum or town read. As long as we've got convincing arguments, there could be times where we want one person to lead the discussion with a read and the other person to chime in, question them or egg them on, and get things rolling forward. 6 sciberbia 07-11-2012 09:59 PM ET (US) OK I'm not 100% sure when it is best to claim, but I don't think it can hurt to hold off on claiming for now. I'm pretty sure we can get everyone to believe us if and when we do decide to claim. So the only big worry I have about not claiming is that one of us might be shot by a town vigi. If either of us ever become top suspects, we may want to claim during night phase to prevent that from happening. A couple of other things I've been thinking: 1) I completely agree about the breadcrumbing. That way, if I flip, you will have a I-am-confirmed-mason card that you may play whenever you want. And vice versa. I'll make a breadcrumb sometime tonight/tomorrow. I'm thinking of doing every 10 characters spells out a message or something. 2) We should never throw suspicion onto each other at all 3) We shouldn't address each other in the thread without good reason 4) If either of us becomes lynch candidates, we should hard-defend each other 5) If either of us looks like we are going to be lynched, we both claim mason and reveal breadcrumbs 6) I believe we are allowed to copy + paste from this QT as evidence of our being masons. I just PM'd NSH to ask if this is allowed 5 austinmcc 07-11-2012 06:47 PM ET (US) I do think that we should breadcrumb that we are masons and the identity of the other mason though, and show each other where we crumbed. Should one of us get killed early, the other one will have the location of the dead mason's crumb to confirm himself. 4 austinmcc 07-11-2012 06:44 PM ET (US) Gonna make a hello post. As to the claiming stuff that popped up, I know that millers are supposed to claim N1, because any scum that gets checked later in game can just claim miller. I don't love the suggestion that masons claim, maybe because we're masons and I want to enjoy that power. If we claim, we're basically confirmed, but probable NK targets. If we don't, then we don't have 2 town voices to listen to, but masons SHOULD grow stronger over time. So at least my first thought process is that we shouldn't claim? | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On July 21 2012 06:20 Miltonkram wrote: I think I've found scum. Sciberbia's approach to each of our three lynches has been different each time. sciberbia's approach to the 1st lynch: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:42 sciberbia wrote: OK guys we have to lynch today! I think there is least resistance to a dropbear lynch. I'd be willing to consolidate on dropbear. Is anyone strongly opposed to a dropbear lynch? Here he is willing to vote for dropbear because there is "least resistance" to a dropbear lynch. This does not sit well with me, particularly because earlier he had posted this regarding dropbear. On July 14 2012 06:18 sciberbia wrote: Sorry I just spotted this while going through your filter. In short, I am pretty neutral on him. His first post feels townie to me. His next couple posts feel sketchy. His vote on vivax is not a scumtell IMO. I think scum would be extremely wary of voting with so little reasoning. His conviction in a talis & vivax scumteam seems a bit suspicious. I really just don't have a strong feel on him one way or the other. I don't see how he's willing to consolidate on DropBear when earlier he's got a pretty neutral read on him. Most townies will do their best to push whichever lynch they think is better. If you look at our 2nd and 3rd lynch, sciberbia pushed pretty hard for the lynches to go his way. I've come to suspect that our first lynch was between two townies, considering the fact that now I have a fairly strong town read on DropBear. Townies didn't know that at the time and would have been extremely invested in the lynch. Scum would know that we were picking between two townies, and thus wouldn't care as much. Sciberbia didn't seem too invested in our 1st lynch, especially compared to how hard he pushed these last two lynch efforts. True, sciberbia did qualify his statement with this On July 14 2012 06:44 sciberbia wrote: @Risen I'd love to lynch Vivax at this point but there just doesn't seem to be enough support for it. but I still feel like he wasn't truly invested in how the 1st lynch turned out. I'm also wary of how easily he was convinced of Vivax's townieness. On July 14 2012 06:55 sciberbia wrote: oh ow NOW vivax is giving me a really townie feel. Does anybody else see his last two posts as townie? This sudden change of opinion feels rather forced. I feel like it's a bit of a show. sciberbia's approach to the 2nd lynch: + Show Spoiler + We all know the story, he pushed the talismania lynch really hard. I feel like both Mattchew and sciberbia came out of nowhere and put their full weight behind a talismania lynch. I don't remember who posted this, but they said that if sciberbia had bussed talismania it would have been an "old school style bus" where the player tunnels their scum buddy hardcore. Well we now know that's what Mattchew did, why not sciberbia too? This is a minor point and it could be incorrect, but with Mattchew so all-in on a talismania lynch I almost find it likely that his scumbuddy was also pushing for a tali lynch. Why get town cred for one player when you can get it for two, correct? Here are a few examples of him pushing the talismania lynch. Hopefully you can spot the differences between his attitude in the D1 lynch and the D2 lynch. On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote: I feel much better about my reads right now than I did D1. Here are top 3 most suspicious: 1) talismania: I really want to lynch him. 2) gonzaw: I have a few minor points against him, but other than that it's gut feeling. He reminds me a lot of mafia Xatalos from NMM XV. gonzaw and talis are linked as scumbuddies in my mind. I want to see talis flip red before we lynch gonzaw. 3) keirathi: still seems somewhat suspicious; mostly for reasons I've already stated I really need a break from this game so I'm just going to make a case on talismania before getting some much-needed sleep. It's almost 7am here. I'll post thoughts on other people tomorrow. My case on talismania fixation on his plan This has already been talked about in other cases; those of austinmcc and miltonkram I believe. It's a bit weird how wrapped up he gets in proposing his plan, defending his plan, and analyzing reactions to his plan. In particular, I find his assemblage of reactions suspicious: + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 00:43 talismania wrote: Reactions to talismania's Shitty Plan (for those who care) + Show Spoiler + marvellosity On July 12 2012 09:47 marvellosity wrote: naw, I'm not killing anyone based on one post right at the beginning of the game (especially as pregame was quite active/friendly, it spilled over) I'd rather lynch talis for his never-ending bullshit on listing names and reasons. Seriously, 24 hours into day 1 and we're supposed to come up with reasons on 3 different people for why they might be scum? It's just nonsense. Or... wait for it... I have an idea! If someone says something a person finds scummy, they can call them out and bring it to the thread! Wow, marv, you say - an amazing plan! People shouldn't be 'forced' to make effort, the making of the effort willingly is what helps gives us our reads on people. Predictably shits on it, suggests policy lynching me out of his annoyance that I keep proposing these dumb plans. gonzaw On July 12 2012 09:36 gonzaw wrote: So, if the lynch was right now I'd want to kill one of these 3 guys: You can see the recurring theme in all 3 (just 1 post, promising something/appearing they are eager to start but not doing anything else later). marv, talismania, anybody active, what do you think about these guys? If you had to kill one of them which one would you choose and why? (if you don't want to kill anyone then say so). Also this guy could die too: But at least he put a little bit more effort (although that's not town-telling) Dropbear and Milton haven't even posted, but well we can't do anything about it. Actually follows the plan - as I said seems rather townie. Especially the timing. Mattchew On July 12 2012 10:46 Mattchew wrote: Also, talis has the worst plan ever with his 3 people thing. That just allows people to half ass push some stupid reads and then connections theories run wild and everything turns to shit shits on it solstice On July 12 2012 11:04 s0Lstice wrote: Keirathi, assuming you are still around... why so verbose about lurkers? what do you think of talismania's plan? I actually don't see him reacting to it at all yet he asks keirathi about it. Interesting. He did react to gonzaw's post reacting to mine. austinmcc On July 12 2012 11:33 austinmcc wrote: That's because there's basically nothing to my first post except "Millers claim," which isn't helpful. What I can add is that I think talismania's 3-case plan is bad, but that seems to be the general sentiment. Forcing arbitrary requirements on everyone isn't really going to help us, and is going to clog up the thread later. People are going to make halfhearted cases to try to reach that number, someone will inevitably only find 1-2 people scummy and we'd end up in some "does x not making 3 cases = scummy?" discussion, and we also might end up lynching people that EVERYONE finds a little bit scummy rather than someone that a few people have a strong scumread on for good reasoning. Can also add that I haven't played with gonzaw, but I've obsed his recent games. Anyone here feel like they do a good job reading him, and if so, can you post some tips? I've found that I almost always end up reading him as scum, because he is active enough and posts enough that I keep finding scummy things to latch on to. Had him scum at the end of liar game just prior to the katina lynch, but also found him really scummy in the recent MTG because I felt like some of the plans he pushed hard were anti-town (check the obsqt early on, although I didn't post much there). So...any magical tricks for getting the right read on Gonzaw? Actually this reads scummy again on the second go-round too. He says he's about to "add" something but literally just copies/expands on what marv said and doesn't add anything at all. Keirathi On July 12 2012 11:54 Keirathi wrote: Sorry was getting dinner. I was verbose because I have some shared experience with sciberbia, whom I was replying to. I know that most (all?) of his TL mafia experience was in newbie games, and the dynamic is just different when you can assume that people know how to play the game. As far as talismania's plan, I feel like it makes it too easy for mafia to blend in. The more townies you have making arguments against other townies, the easier you can push mislynches and not have to take any blame for them. There are other things wrong with it, but Mattchew and austin beat me to it. No need rehashing what they said. Mmm I think this is innocuous. He might not even have responded if he hadn't been asked to. DropBear On July 12 2012 15:18 DropBear wrote: This is silly. This isn't going to happen and would just waste time. On the majority lynch, day 1 this tends to be a right kerfuffle. I can't think of any system that has ever worked on day 1 in games I have been part of. So fuck a system, we deal with it when the time comes. There should be solid candidates by then anyway. Actually this doesn't sit that well with me at all. Conversation had started to move on and then he brings it back to my plan and says the same shit everyone else did. I also don't like his misrepresentation of my views on the roleblocker's use of their power. strongandbig On July 12 2012 16:51 strongandbig wrote: Hey bros For people who weren't in ssb or mtg mafias, just wanted to let you guys know I am currently in Europe, where I don't have a cell phone data plan. This means I can only post when I have wifi, which is a change from my normal method. I've also been busy at work so please don't expect much from me before 8pm CET. Now for serious stuff: I'm going to be watching marv like a motherfuking hawk. I think hosts tend to try to "balance" games sometimes by tweaking their scum team selection; however, that can and has led to extra info from town through balance speculation. Marvellosity makes an extremely tempting player for hosts to do this kind of balancing, because his scum play is empirically very good, but he isn't a "veteran" so he's not likely to be the subject of balance speculation. I also suspect bugs of doing this kind of balancing. + Show Spoiler [reasons, from wheel of fortune.] + The last of his c++ games I played in was wheel of fortune. That was a stacked game and I was one of the worst players in it, although I did eventually manage to figure out the scum team (and got shot for having correct reads before I could push some of them). With the benefit of hindsight, that scum team looks almost perfectly balanced for the player base. Radfield was town, ace was scum. VE and Forumite were both good players, but only on the edge of being full-on vets. I firmly believe that town would have won that game if Radfield hadn't decided to use a DT check on Ace, who was godfather. That kind of closeness is the sign of a well-balanced game; and the odds that both town and scum would have their best player as their best power role are very small from pure chance. So what does this mean? I am NOT proposing to policy lynch marvellosity; if he's town he can be a great asset, and besides that's totally against the spirit of the game. What I AM saying is that I think when someone points out something scummy he does, we should take it pretty seriously. Pure chance wouldn't explain why he has rolled scum in something like half his games since our first game together (noob 6) while I have rolled it once - him being good and me not does explain that. NOW: having told you why you should pay attention, I'm going to point out something scummy marv has done. That thing is: propose/say he would be okay with lynching Talismania. Talismania's plan IS anti town. When Ace is host and he tells an obs QT how good a plan is for scum, you better believe he knows what he's talking about. Systematic case proposing plans give scum an excuse to make shitty reads and blend in, because everyone is making shitty cases and dumb reads. That kind of plan dilutes good information and adds bad information. HOWEVER: Talismania proposes this plan as town. All the time. Like, every game. Usually "pushing scummy plans" is a decent scum tell; but this specific player pushing this specific plan is not. And Marvellosity should know this. Marv has obs'd at least two games where Talismania proposed this plan or a variation of it (ssb, bangbang). Tali has proposed this in other games. Marv is the kind of player who pays attention; he should also know that I've pushed tali hard for these plans in the past, as have others. Marv putting tali forward as his first lynch candidates comes down to an easy push on an easy target for reasons he should know are bad. Marv, I'm watching you. + Show Spoiler [on Talismania, briefly] + I'm not saying tali is an easy target in general, like kenpachi or grush would be. He's not that kind of shitty player slash bad case magnet. It's just that for marv to propose him for lynch based on that plan is scummy. He's right about me always pushing this idea althoguh I think he's overreacting to marv's reaction. So actually not that many people commented on it even though I thought like everyone did oops. My views: scummy responses: austinmcc, dropbear null responses: marv, mattchew, keirathi, strongandbig townie response: gonzaw did not respond directly although was in the thread: Risen, sciberbia, solstice This just feels like one of those busy-work summaries that scum do to make it look like they are contributing. It also ties in with his insisting that his plan has promoted discussion. Overall, all this talk about the plan is unproductive and slightly suspicious. consistently wishy/washy Here are some examples of some wishy/washiness. Several of these raise yellow flags for me: + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 07:54 talismania wrote:I don't like milkton's last post either. There's a touch of omgus to my feelings there but I also think his argument he just made about me doesn't make much sense. Although come to think of it I dunno why he would come in out of the cold and start making a case on me does seem a bit random as scum. austin's reply to my poke at his post was rather overwrought which fits with my model of him as nervous scum but I guess that could just be the way the guy is too. solstice you said you know him - what do you make of it? + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 01:32 talismania wrote: solstice: I really like the case marv made on him, actually, but for some reason I don't know if I can move beyond a null on him. Like I think the first half of his filter is scummy (the part marv showed), the second half townie. Overall he is playing fairly relaxed, which is usually a town indicator as well. On the other hand he's also been fairly focused on just a couple players, which is a scum indicator. Keirathi: Well he's conditional town or conditional scum at this point. Like I think he was way too neutral in the beginning as someone else pointed out but he's also onto dropbear as I am. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 01:43 talismania wrote: actually that is a decent question. I originally ranked them that way in my head from way back when I analyzed reactions to my posts and it sort of has stuck since then. Mmm I guess thinking it over I can't think of a fantastic reason for one over the other to be honest with you. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:00 talismania wrote: @risen I don't know what to make of the risen v vivax to be honest. I liked your case against him but I'm still stuck on dropbear. and if dropbear is scum I can't see vivax being scum either. mmm I better not be tunneling again like I did last time to HiroPro. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:08 talismania wrote: I dunno. I'm starting to think my case on austin is actually stronger than my case on dropbear was in the first place to be perfectly honest. However milton and keirathi also brought up good points on dropbear I think. Unless they were just trying to nudge a bandwagon along? Mmm shit. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote: I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. especially that last one. seriously wtf.. I don't like his approach to the lynch I feel like we were just lynching between a bunch of townies yesterday. If I had to guess, I'd say there is only 1 scum between our many lynch candidates: dropbear, vivax, miltonkram, s0Lstice, austinmcc, risen, and keirathi. So I think the mafia must have felt very at ease and not really cared too much who actually got lynched. Talis was just too calm in the hour leading up to the lynch. For example, what was he doing in between these two posts: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:08 talismania wrote: I dunno. I'm starting to think my case on austin is actually stronger than my case on dropbear was in the first place to be perfectly honest. However milton and keirathi also brought up good points on dropbear I think. Unless they were just trying to nudge a bandwagon along? Mmm shit. Where has gonzaw gone? I kinda expect him to be in here cracking the whip near deadline. On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote: I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. This was a crucial 31 minutes. I don't think any of us actually had any idea who would end up being lynched at this time. But what was talis doing? Looks like he was just sitting around waiting for us to lynch a townie. In the last hour before the lynch, he really does nothing productive at all. He just says a bunch of neutralish things that don't really go anywhere. I also have serious problems with this post just after we lynched vivax: For reference, here is the full extent of his defense on Vivax: Seriously? He says that he hopes he is "completely wrong" about vivax, but he hardly defended Vivax at all. If he really felt strongly about Vivax being town, he should have been positively shouting at people like me/marv/austin/strongandbig to put votes on dropbear instead of vivax, especially seeing as dropbear was supposedly his #1 scumread. But he was just saying useless shit like this: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote: I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. On July 14 2012 06:54 talismania wrote: argh wtf I don't want to swtich but I will if we need too. On July 14 2012 06:57 talismania wrote: jesus risen why are you so excited? According to what talis has said, he really thought dropbear was scum, and he really thought vivax was town. I was a hell of a lot less sure than talis supposedly was, and even I was more invested in the lynch. All of his posts leading up to the lynch seriously bother me. throws suspicion on easy targets (my townreads) He throws suspicion on a bunch of easy targets: dropbear, austin, risen, s0Lstice, milton. In fact, he threw suspicion onto just about every lynch candidate, and onto nobody that was not a lynch candidate. His reads are just going with the flow. I feel like he is just gonzaw's parrot. He's quite friendly with both gonzaw and marv (people with most thread control IMO). does not defend his townreads He never makes an against-the-grain townread. In his entire filter, I don't think he defends anybody at all. He supposedly had townreads on vivax, strongandbig, and mattchew, all 3 of which were under fire at some point, and none of which he did any defending for. This is suspicious to me. I have a really good feeling about this case. Can we please lynch talis today? ##Vote talismania I'd just like to note how sciberbia has laid his plan out here. Have you noticed him deviate from his plan of lynching talismania, then pursuing a lynch against gonzaw? He hasn't. I find this incredibly suspicious since town will often deviate from any plans they make whenever new evidence presents itself. It's far more likely for scum to make a plan and then follow it through to completion. Here's a few other examples of him pushing the tali lynch. On July 16 2012 08:53 sciberbia wrote: @s0Lstice Can you look at the cases on talis and reread his filter? I want your opinion on him. I really think we should lynch him. On July 16 2012 09:02 sciberbia wrote: @gonzaw I'll post my thoughts on s&b next. Please post your most current thoughts on talis. Do you recall sciberbia pushing the Vivax lynch this hard? I sure don't. Shit, I just noticed that the endgame is being posted. I'll just toss this out there and see if I was correct. lol | ||
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