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Alright, I took a nap and came back to the thread. I reread Milton's posts with a 'townie Milton' perspective and I can see why the general impression of him is town. I also can see that my case can simply be a misinterpretation of his words and trying to read things as scum slips. Milton sounds like he's had a pretty transparent game, and being convinced that trackd00r and unforgiven were scum fits the townie uninformed perspective better than the scum's informed perspective. Also, Milton has had a townie read of me all game, and now that we've reached the end game and I'm still alive, it's becoming clear that having such a read actually hinders a scum milton's agenda. He needed to be able to pressure me and force a mislynch on me but that doesn't look like its going to happen. His best-case end game scenario is pretty crappy and scum are all about thinking long term, so a scum milton might have set himself better than this... Milton's most recent post about me and the NK also felt weird to me from a scum Milton perspective.
Giving golden's filter a once over, warning bells sound off when I read his posts about telling vig not to claim, him saying he never contradicts himself, and the general vibe once he starts getting angry. Falling off the radar perfectly fits a scum golden's agenda while not working for a town golden's one. His contributions in the previous threads too showed that he was a helpful townie, which is not what happened here. The NK of austin makes sense (esp. when you think it could be a rage kill) and the N3 NK makes sense.
Although I made a big case against Milton and insta-voted him today, it's not like I voted him lightly. I made the case with the idea that I was pretty damn sure he was the last scum, and it took me a while to come off it. The reasons for that are posted above.
I asked for sciberbia and crossfire's thoughts on the matter at the end of my case on golden, but I think I'm not going to wait for their response.
##unvote Miltokram ##vote O.golden_ne
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EBWOP: Milton's most recent post about me, and the NK of alan also felt weird to me from a scum Milton perspective.
Punctuation is good.
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And I know I'm town, so logically speaking Milton must be mafia for me, even though after all my analysis he pretty much reads town to me unless I'm really set on spinning his play as mafia.
I really really really hope we've won here. If not, the only piece left will be who mafia NK's on the final night. The game will be reduced down to 3 people, and out of those 3 barring some insanely good NK examination it feels like it's going to be a shot in the dark.
I mean, all four of us have pretty much cross-analysed each other to death. If there was something substantial we'd have found it... right?
So I really really really hope we take the win at the end of today... cuz I can't think of any more points to discuss 'just in case' golden bleeds green.
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Basically what your post amounts to for me is that we win in about 1 hour and 7 minutes :OOO
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sciberbia, you make a really good case for Milton's defense. So good, that I actually believe you. Milton is definitely a townie, I can't argue with your points. Crossfire as well, is rocksolid townie.
So here we are.
There has been one thing bothering me for the entire game. Why am I still alive? After so much pressure against me from sciberbia, how is it that I haven't kicked the bucket yet?
Sciberbia has consistently put me as his top scum read. Yet he lets me slip through his fingers every time. First, he got distracted by trackd00r. Then, he tunnelled unforgiven. Finally, he somehow let us sway his impression of golden to make him vote for golden.
Here is my prediction. Crossfire will die tonight. Sciberbia will push me, and Milton will be forced to agree with you, and I'll be lynched.
Why will crossfire die tonight? Because sciberbia can't die, because he's the last scum. With this final mislynch he strikes a home run for mafia and takes home the gold.
My Case on Sciberbia
The posts where he votes for lynch targets
Trackdoor:+ Show Spoiler + Since the NK of austinmcc, trackd00r has started to look a lot worse relative to suki.
I already talked about how the mod's blue text suggests to me that the mafia hadn't submitted their NK. And I think this would be more likely due to trackd00r than suki.
Also, suki has been very active and I just don't see why she would be putting in all this effort if she is scum. Maybe just to make us do 1 more mislynch? On the other hand, trackd00r has been pretty quiet since the day post.
In summary I don't feel overly confident about either of suki's or trackd00r's cases individually. But they are definitely top 2 candidates on my list and I think both have a decent chance of being the last scum. I'm honestly not sure which I think is more likely the last mafia, but it seems suki has at least guilted us into lynching trackd00r first so...
##unvote ##Vote trackd00r
Unforgiven:+ Show Spoiler + So, I am going to look past the circumstancial evidence, and conclude that I'm leaning town on suki
...
First of all, s0Lstice is a pretty smart dude. And he was townie. And now he's dead.
s0Lstice wasn't the perfect NK for mafia. He was a likely subject of protection from medic/jailkeeper. Additionally, he didn't look blue at all. Additionally, if unforgiven were hypothetically NOT mafia, having s0Lstice around for D3 would help to push another mislynch. So why did he die?
The NK of s0Lstice makes perfect sense if Unforgiven is mafia. Do you really think unforgiven would be able to avoid getting lynched today if s0Lstice were still in the game? I doubt it.
In conclusion, I think unforgiven is likely the last mafia.
##Vote unforgiven_ve
Golden:+ Show Spoiler + Well it seems we are all agreement on lynching golden.
His filter reads kinda townie to me (barring when he claimed scum). I'm not buying too much into the comparison with previous games. Golden seemed generally mad, whether town or mafia. His line about the vigilante was definitely bad advice, not sure if it's scum-motivated though.
But town reads are relative at this point and I'd definitely rather lynch golden than miltonkram. Golden also fits with the NKs more than the other 2, especially for austinmcc and alan. Also, if you are going to consider D1 busses, suki or miltonkram on HeavOnEarth was more of a real (potential) bus than HeavOnEarth on golden. HeavOnEarth even kinda backed off of it of his own accord, which felt odd. Also, the whole thing about his "slip" where mafia is bussing him off and him flipping scum has to be counted against him.
Anyway, I'm not gonna waste too much time trying to convince 3 people already voting golden to vote golden. I really hope he flips scum tomorrow, and I think there's a pretty decent chance.
@Crossfire If golden flips town, we have to decide whether to lynch suki or miltonkram. I just feel that suki has to be more likely mafia than miltonkram. I'd assume your not convinced of this? We should definitely talk about this during night phase if golden flips town, and maybe even before then since today's lynch is already pretty much decided. I'll probably make a post tomorrow detailing why I think miltonkram is the more likely town.
But for now, today's lynch is pretty much decided so I'm just going to sleep. 8 PM tomorrow can't come fast enough x_x
##Vote O.Golden_ne
Vote Timings: He was 7th out of 12 to vote for HeavOnEarth He was 6th out of 9 to vote for trackd00r He was 1st out of 7 to vote for unforgiven. He was 4th out of 5 to vote for golden.
Why this is relevant:
His vote on HeavOnEarth was made after HeavOn's lynch was pretty much decided. Basically he didn't want to bus HeavOn until the last moment.
His vote timing on HeavOnEarth is the most important out of the four, because after rofl dies, he can play a strong townie game. Therefore, I think it's very telling that he was so late to jump on HeavOnEarth.
His stance on me: Day 1: + Show Spoiler + Day 2:+ Show Spoiler + I've gone through the case on suki, and I get the same feeling as s0Lstice; that suki is mafia and did a better job than last game of hiding it.
- s0lstice's name bolded for my own emphasis. I haven't gone through the cases on trackd00r or golden yet, but I think its pretty likely suki is the last mafia, so
##Vote suki
In summary -- suki and trackd00r are in my tier of top suspicion -- I find suki more suspicious based on posts -- I just realized that the whole NK business suggests trackd00r is mafia rather than suki -- I'll study track00r more over the next 24 hours and post more thoughts -- I think we will probably end up lynching both of them anyway (assuming we don't win today), so it's hardly likely to matter.
Since the NK of austinmcc, trackd00r has started to look a lot worse relative to suki.
- He analyses the NK and puts trackd00r as his top suspect. Day 3:+ Show Spoiler + IN SUMMARY -- I am for lynching suki, and then miltonkram if she flips town -- This isn't so much because miltonkram looks scummy, but that everyone else looks townie -- I am obsessed with figuring out why austinmcc died, and I have a possible explanation
I just really don't see suki making this NK. I don't think the mafia coach would have suggested this NK to suki, and I highly doubt she would have proposed the idea on her own. Not only does it seem out of character to make such an odd choice of NK, but I think I am right in saying suki was being collectively viewed as one of the most suspicious people during N1.
...
I'm leaning town on suki
The thing I like most about this case is that the NK of austinmcc really fits here.
...
##Vote unforgiven_ve
Day 4:+ Show Spoiler + would really like to lynch golden and then suki if golden filps town.
But town reads are relative at this point and I'd definitely rather lynch golden than miltonkram. Golden also fits with the NKs more than the other 2, especially for austinmcc and alan. Also, if you are going to consider D1 busses, suki or miltonkram on HeavOnEarth was more of a real (potential) bus than HeavOnEarth on golden. HeavOnEarth even kinda backed off of it of his own accord, which felt odd. Also, the whole thing about his "slip" where mafia is bussing him off and him flipping scum has to be counted against him.
Anyway, I'm not gonna waste too much time trying to convince 3 people already voting golden to vote golden.
- Why golden? Why is golden a better lynch target than me? His only point is that the NK makes more sense, that the heavonearth bus wasnt good, that he slipped saying 'scum' instead of 'town'. But how is that a better case than his case on me? @Crossfire If golden flips town, we have to decide whether to lynch suki or miltonkram. I just feel that suki has to be more likely mafia than miltonkram. I'd assume your not convinced of this?
I've already talked about this a bit. I really think crossfire was a more sensible kill for miltonkram. If golden is mafia, I think he made a mistake by killing alan. He should have killed crossfire.
If the last mafia is suki/miltonkram, I have no doubt that they'd have some sort of plan for what went down today. Scum suki seems to have had a plan: kill alan --> get miltonkram lynched. Very straightforward.
But miltonkram not so much. First of all, he doesn't actually post until quite a bit of time has passed. This allows 2 votes to get thrown on him without much resistance. Then, he accuses golden moreso than suki.
I really don't think he'd have planned on lynching golden today. Leave sciberbia alive --> lynch golden doesn't seem like it would have been a solid plan.
- He uses that specific day's NK to target me and discredit a scum Miltonkram case.
He jumps from viewing me as the most suspicious on Day 1, Day 2, to townie on Day 3 (solely because of NK's), to most suspicious on Day 4 and now Day 5.
The biggest question is, if I was really the most suspicious person to him, why wouldn't he hard press for me to get lynched? Why is his attention drawn away every single time?
Because he planned it that way.
Like he said, he really loves to analyse NK's. And his analysis of NK's has always pointed to a townie. He has used the NK's in trackd00r and unforgiven and golden's lynches to choose a less-suspicious looking candidate over me every time.
The simple explanation is this: He planned the NK's for this very reason. Sciberbia is using the NK's to direct the town's target as he pleases, while keeping me alive for the very last day as the 'least townie of all the remaining townies'.
Isn't it strange how we always seem to have a surefire mafia lynch, but every time we're disappointed? One of the biggest reasons we were so sure of unforgiven and golden was because the NK's didn't make sense if they weren't scum. Well, now we've reached the final stage of the game, and you know what? The lynches still don't make sense if I'm scum or if milton is scum. But sciberbia is willing to discard that to vote for 'the least townie of all the remaining townies'.
This is the blindfold that has been pulled over our eyes this entire game. The idea that the NK's had meaning and pointed to the last mafia. The reality is that the real meaning of the NK's is to direct the town to take itself out one by one.
The NK's all make sense when you view it from this perspective.
The final stage of the game
Here we are, the last remaining townies forced into a corner, with town reads on everybody, and the only option seemingly to go after the person who seems the least townie.
This is not how the game should end. The game should end by us finding who is the wolf in sheep's clothing.
Isn't it strange how sciberbia's impression of milton flip-flopped throughout the last few days? First, he thought milton didn't look scummy, but couldn't see why he couldn't be scum. Then, he was willing to lynch me followed by milton, who he figured was the most likely to be scum after me. Then, he thinks milton is probably town and targets unforgiven. Then he puts milton as his #1 town read above crossfire.
When sciberbia stated that milton looked most likely to be scum after me, that was after trackd00r died (D2). Now that we've reached the endgame, he thinks that:
If miltonkram is really scum, he played one hell of a D1. Honestly since D1, he hasn't acted quite as townie, but he seems to have been really busy...
Think of this from a scum sciberbia perspective. In the beginning he's keeping his options open to lynch Milton (by pointing out his play could possibly scummy). In the end, he wants to keep Milton on his side by saying Milton is 100% town. He's also put Crossfire as 100% town. Both Milton and Crossfire have a town read on me, but when sciberbia lays out the scenario like this, they have no choice but to reluctantly lynch me.
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Summary - Sciberbia was late to vote for HeavOnEarth. - Sciberbia has had me as his most scummy read for the whole game but somehow always gets distracted by the NK's. - Sciberbia has used NK's as reasons to attack or defend players, but now that he's at the end he simply gives up the analysis and decides to vote the least scummy townie. - Sciberbia has painted Miltonkram as possibly scummy and also as his strongest town read, both due to Milton's day 1 play. - The NK's have made sense for the current lynch target every day, and sciberbia is always happy to point it out. We miss, everyone feels horrible. Then suddenly someone else is most likely to have made those NK's. The scum in Mafia XV won because town wouldn't analyse the NK's. In this game, the scum has almost won because town put so much emphasis on the NK's, not realizing that they've been lead astray the whole time.
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Also note that sciberbia doesn't give any reason for voting for golden over me, EXCEPT due to his analysis of the NK's. Sciberbia had put golden on a town read for the whole game, but somehow he complacently let golden get lynched despite feeling I was the most suspicious.
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Regarding sciberbia's insta-bus on rofl. I bet he looked at rofl's play and knew that s0lstice and other good players would inevitably pick up on the slips. Rather than let that happen, he decided to take massive town cred for the insta-bus. Note that prior to his incriminating post on rofl, he hadn't even commented on rofl's play at all.
I think it's also telling that rofl was relieved to have been shot by alan. It means if sciberbia put that plan forward to bus rofl, rofl would have happily accepted.
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Alan's case on sciberbia:
@sciberbia - Could it be he, the mastermind behind everything? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15162490
I am not trying to take credit, but I did posted roflwaffle as my prime suspect before I wrote an entire post in it, and it was before sciberbia's case on rolf. Perhaps Sciberbia noticed the slip made by rolfwaffle, and sees that he generated a lot of suspicious around him? s0Lstice did say he has a good idea who is the 2nd scum is.
Sciberbia's supposedly bandwagony actions He jumped on suki's case in day 2 after s0Lstice, arguing that trackd00r or suki is probably scums because confirmed scums did not attack them. Please keep in mind sciberbia was also in this category. He goes by saying did not contribute much to the lynching of both scums. Before the rolf post, has he really committed to any scum hunting?
Switching from Suki to Unforgiven_ve If sciberbia is the last mafia, he could be doing this to buy more time to get another mislynch, with a dead guy supporting him.
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Interesting note. If you look at the Day 1 sequence of events, Sciberbia posts his last post 6 hours before the night ends. During those six hours is when the mods were asking for night actions to be turned in. He shows up just barely before the night ends.
In other words, the reasoning that he used through the whole game about Night actions not being turned in until late during the night can also be applied to him, because he wasn't around during the time that the mods were asking for night actions.
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Also remember that unforgiven called out sciberbia for uncharacteristic tunneling http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15161837
You are overeager to show your "scum hunting" skills, you are trying to take (and have succeded so far) town leadership, you remember me of the guys who won the last game i played, people fell for it, people didnt want to REALLY analyze the way he was playing.
Theres 2 option for the last mafia to do:
1.- Always be under the radar and try to not gain any enemies and always look like you are in the same sintony as town
and
2.- Be aggresive, take town leadership, point fingers to people who cant convince the town (for different reasons, posting, lurking, difficulty to express ideas)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15168782 + Show Spoiler + My last attempt will be this, going against my own belives and seeing you are blindly reading and using past games, i will show you what a mafia posted in NMM XV
On May 31 2012 17:31 Xatalos wrote: blah - As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already.
On May 31 2012 23:43 Xatalos wrote: blah
Finally you posted something, but it's not what I was hoping for from a town Unforgiven_ve. More like what I expected from a Mafia Unforgiven_ve.
This response convinced me. It's time to get the ball rolling.
AHEM
On June 20 2012 11:41 sciberbia wrote: Unforgiven's response didn't do anything for me. I'm not surprised, because my primary points of accusation are points that you cannot easily explain away. He has a lot of text, but doesn't say many things of substance. To summarize his post:
On June 20 2012 14:48 sciberbia wrote: I was really unimpressed by Unforgiven's case on miltonkram. Here are my thoughts:
bleh-
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15165897
The agressiveness coming from sciberbia and his "stubbornness" SCREAMS desperate mafia, i bet you he will go for suki then, now that suki's case is fogotten it will be his card up his slevee,
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If sciberbia truly were town, he'd have pressed my case and not used the NK's time and time again to discredit me being scum. After all, NK's can be done for WIFOM reasons, right? Yet somehow he puts full confidence in the NK analysis, and he has no reason not to because town is grasping at straws for the most plausible scum and the NK reasoning makes perfect sense.
This is my case against sciberbia. Have a good long look and see if you believe me when I say that he's been the town puppetmaster this whole time.
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May I also revisit Miltonkram's point that after 2/3 of the mafia are dead, the last remaining scum just has to play a strong town game. They have no one left to protect.
If you view it that way, the day 1 and night 1 actions of all the players here are very important, because thats the only time that the 3rd scum had teammates to protect/deal with.
sciberbia was one of the last to vote for heavon. And he didn't talk about rofl at ALL in the first day, prior to his big bus of rofl at the beginning of N1.
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It's really interesting how you have such a dramatic shift in tone now that I've accused you.
I think you're irritated because you're so close to pulling off a mafia win that you can't believe I'd switch cases from Milton to you on the very last day.
Here's my question to Crossfire and Milton. Do you guys want me to defend myself? If you have any questions about my playstyle and actions I will be happy to answer them. However, I don't feel obligated to answer questions from sciberbia.
Second, the entire game you both have read me as town, despite the insane amount of pressure and analysing that was done on me. When has sciberbia ever been analysed? When has he ever been pressured? This is the first time, and he's really irritated by it.
Here is the way I see it. Scum sciberbia only has to clear one out of two of the last remaining town after this last night kill. Now that its reached the last day, he's suddenly insanely sure that Milton is town, and suddenly insanely sure that I'm the last mafia. He posted such a great defense of Milton that I have to concede that he's right. The funny thing is that he's left me with no other option but to analyse his play.
I haven't looked at sciberbia's defense of my points but I will do so shortly over breakfast.
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sciberbia, I concede. Your defense is very good. Some points that I like:
1. Keeping me around doesn't make much sense. You'd be better off just shooting me and having lurkers at the end of the game. 2. You didn't push mislynches, except on unforgiven. 3. scum sciberbia really doesn't benefit from hard defending milton. If it's a crapshoot between me and milton on the last day then that's the best scenario for sciberbia. On the other hand, if you hard defend milton I have no choice but to go after you. 4. lynching golden then me is a decent town plan if you think both of us have a chance to flip scum. My only issue with this plan is that I'm town.
sciberbia, what am I to do then?
You've singled me out as the only possible scum left, but I'm not. I've pushed hard cases on both you and milton and you've deflected both of them with ease. If you're scum, you're brilliant. If you're town, you're going to be really upset at yourself at the end of the game, because you've painted me in a corner that I can't get out of.
I think I'll have to defend the accusations against me, and then try to dismantle your case against Milton.
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Here is my defense of sciberbia's case against me. Bolded parts are my defense.
On June 24 2012 12:28 sciberbia wrote:This is mostly for crossfire's benefit. First of all, please reread previous cases on sukiIf I've learned anything this game, it's that for whatever reason, I am better at scumhunting on D1 than post-D1. I think I actually had 2 out of 3 scum on D1 and the third on N1. Here is my first case on suki: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=8#151Then s0Lstice accused suki during N1. I think s0Lstice actually had all three mafia by N1: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=15#283 --- I already defended myself earlier in the thread. ---My case on suki during D2: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=18#358 --- Mostly a rehash of stuff s0lstice pointed out, but if there are specific points you'd like clarification on, ask away. --- Crossfire also made a post on suki D2, but I don't think you need to be reminded of your own case. I'm not going to restate all the D1 stuff. I think that's been beaten to death. I'll just talk about some other stuff since D1. Really really bad readsOK now I grant that the language of suki's filter (especially since D1) reads pretty townie. But in forum games, some people are just good at making their language seem townie. Judging by actions is usually better than judging by langauge. Let's look at what she has actually done in regards to pushing lynches: + Show Spoiler + D1: pushes alan (a townie). defends HeavOnEarth(a mafia). Only votes HeavOnEarth after it likely doesn't matter D2: pushes trackd00r hard (a townie) D3: pushes unforgiven hard (a townie) D4: pushes golden (a townie) D5: probably pushes miltonkram (a probable townie)
How many times can somebody hurt town and not be mafia? It's no wonder we've mislynched 3 times in a row. We've been letting a a top suspect (suki) lead our lynches. --- Suki: I'm sorry if I pushed the wrong people. I'm town and I get things wrong. In my defense, my attacks provoke defenses or pro-town behaviour. It's unfortunate that we had so many lurkers.
From a scum point of view, what would be the point in pushing all these mislynches? Wouldn't I be better off following everyone else and sort of pushing this and that person? I've been the most active scum-hunting person in the thread, and I don't think that's inherently a bad way to play. ---Everyone who has been NK'd was suspicious of suki+ Show Spoiler + NK 1: austinmcc is suspicious of suki (maybe less so than golden, but still)] NK 2: s0Lstice is quite suspicious of suki (but she could also use it to push unforgiven) NK 3: alan is suspicious of suki. Why did alan not die earlier? He used to think suki was town. NK 4: probably sciberbia
--- Coincidence. Also, the NK's don't make sense. If I wanted to make my life easier I'd have killed sciberbia earlier on - look at all the pressure he's putting on me. And he's been doing this since Day 1. Don't you think if I wanted to take town leadership, I'd have made life a LOT easier on myself and just gotten rid of him? Same with austin. Doesn't make sense. Alan also was flip-flopping his read on me, as opposed to sciberbia who was convinced. Why not sciberbia instead of alan? --- Everyone else's read on suki vs miltonkram + Show Spoiler + Crossfire, I understand you're personal read of suki has been pretty town. Maybe that'll change as you read through filters. But, if there was ever a time to listen to other people's reads, now is probably it. Here are the last thoughts of all known or assumed townies on suki:
austinmcc: suspicious of suki; no comment on milton s0Lstice: suki 2nd most suspicious; milton reads town trackd00r: no real comment on either unforgiven: suki town; miltonkram mafia alan: unsure on suki; not suspicious of miltonkram golden: suki suspicious; no comment on miltonkram sciberbia: suki mafia; miltonkram town
Only unforgiven finds miltonkram more suspicious. And several people are significantly more suspicious of suki than of miltonkram.
--- In mafia XV, Cattavik/Vivax was targetted for lynch because he was the most active poster. He made a bad read and town jumped on him for tunneling. Of course, he turned out green.
Scum have two general options at their disposal. One, stay out of the spotlight as much as possible. Two, take town leadership and direct town by looking super townie. I've done neither. ---
A few changes of tone + Show Spoiler +The tone of suki's posts have changed a bit throughout the game. This is kinda indicative of a mafia because they try to be decietful. Here are some posts: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote: Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? ... BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open.
##vote trackd00r
+ Show Spoiler +On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote: Did not contradict myself. I do not think I blundered. I did not bounce around. I analysed the game and based on my judgement I focused my attention on the one person I believed was the most scum, and I didn't let off until I was convinced otherwise.
The only evidence against me is from viewing my actions from a biased point of view. I've played a strong town game, and you're trying to spin it like I'm playing a strong mafia game by playing a strong town game.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 17 2012 11:03 suki wrote: Anyways, hum. I'm a little disappointed.
Firstly, I'm disappointed that nobody's commented on my case against trackd00r. I put a lot of time into it and I don't think my points are easily dismissed. If find s0lstice's tunneling of me (and lack of comment on my defence) very strange. Maybe not suspicious, but strange.
I feel that I've been upfront for this whole game. I've stated my suspicions boldly, presented my cases clearly. I've been wrong, about alan and about HeavOn (the so called 'scummy' defense of HeavOn) but that's not a scummy thing in itself. I'm being targeted because I haven't been scared of making mistakes, of calling people out, of changing my vote to who I think is the most scummy. I spend a lot of time on analysing the person I think is most suspicious rather than making shallow analysis on everyone who I think could be suspicious..
...
Neither s0lstice nor sciberbia (who both pretty much have the same case against me) have given my defence any credit or really even a response. No one except alan has really posted their in-depth thoughts on trackd00r. And trackd00r still hasn't delivered any useful posts in his own defence.
I think I've gone through everything I need/want to say. + Show Spoiler +On June 17 2012 13:28 suki wrote: s0lstice, I think you did your job right and that if I really were scum, your pressure on me would be extremely effective. Don't feel bad for pushing me, that's what a good townie should do. Plus you can't be right ALL the time right? haha.
I take it as a huge compliment that you think I'd be up to playing such a risky/advanced level of scum. I have the unique perspective of having a town read on everybody (more or less), including myself, leaving the only likely suspect to be trackd00r. I also feel very strongly about my case on him (hence my disappointment that nobody's really commented on it), and his 'OOPS' post just confirms my suspicions.
@sciberbia I just really have had bad luck and bad reads. I have to say, it feels pretty awful to put so much effort into hunting scum, only to keep missing. I'd love to go over my thoughts behind my moves this game, but I'll do that post-game so I don't clog up the thread when we really need to focus on lynching scum. + Show Spoiler +On June 18 2012 12:56 suki wrote: My outlook on the game post-lynch:
People will be taking a much closer look at me. It's to be expected, after the case that s0lstice and sciberbia brought up. I feel I pushed a good case on trackd00r and its frustrating that he wasn't able to defend himself adequately.
I once again went through all the players in the game. I think I am just going to accept the hard truth that I just blow at analysis.
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In summary:
I am town. That's my only defence at this point. If you believe me, then I hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. If you don't believe me, then I still hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden.
Going to bed soon but I'll keep up with the thread and post my thoughts. Just a little too burned out to do any sort of heavy analysis right now. + Show Spoiler +On June 18 2012 15:09 suki wrote: For those of you suspicious of me, one thing that you should note is that my play style had no fail safe in place when my reads eventually became wrong.
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I may not have been good at hunting scum, but I was good at digging out the non-committal behaviour of blues, I guess. + Show Spoiler +On June 19 2012 15:34 suki wrote: I realize that I am bouncing around now. I think it has to do with just losing all faith in my own judgement, in addition to no one's really listening to me anyways. I still want to post my reads, still want to try to contribute my thoughts when people bring up cases. I still want to believe I can help push for a victory, instead of crawling into a hole and disappearing for the rest of the game because no one will believe me.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 21 2012 10:08 suki wrote: This is my case against Miltonkram. Come daytime I will vote for him. I can't see sciberbia or crossfire as scum. I can't see HeavOnEarth pressuring a scum Golden the way he did. Milton is now the last and only suspect in my mind.
hmm I was expecting to find some better quotes. Maybe this section isn't the best evidence. You can decide for yourself. --- No comment here. ---Clear plan for scum suki on D4 + Show Spoiler + I already talked about this a bit in my post on miltonkram. If suki is scum, I'd have expected her to have a plan for D4. I think her plan was to get miltonkram lynched by killing alan. And then kill sciberbia and WIFOM her way into getting golden lynched. AND if golden gets modkilled D4/D5, this works out brilliantly for her.
If this is true, I'd have expected her to be very reluctant to back off miltonkram. And this holds true. She makes some pretty faulty analysis on the NK, insisting that it makes sense for miltonkram where it really doesn't.
--- If I'm scum, I'd have a better plan than get into a 4-player scenario with 3 practically confirmed townies. You could probably see me defending unforgiven and golden, to keep them around for the final stages. Remember, if I'm scum I have the luxury of knowing who is innocent and defending them.
I'm in the same corner as you sciberbia regarding NK's. You're trying to pin the NK's on me by saying they make sense, but they don't make sense for me to make them at all. ---
I could post more, but I think these are the major points. Especially reread the cases on her D1/N1 actions. The alan bandwaggon, faulty trackd00r case, and defense of HeavOnEarth all look scummy. Nothing really looks scummy about miltonkram, so I really think suki is mafia.
--- bolded parts are my defense. ---
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My response to sciberbia's next line of arguments:
On June 24 2012 18:15 sciberbia wrote:Instictively, suki's accusation of me makes me really sure about her being mafia. First of all, it is yet another "bad read" on her part. Second, I'm really surprised by the confidence in her accusation. It's not just "maybe we should consider the possibility that sciberbia is mafia". She goes from -60 to 60 on me after the mislynch of golden. Also, maybe I'm biased, but a few things in her case seem like exaggerations or just quite a stretch. But objectively, from the perspective of scum suki, here is the question: + Show Spoiler + what is more likely? (a) that miltonkram will vote sciberbia over suki (b) or that crossfire will vote miltonkram over suki
Honestly (b) seems more likely to me . I was expecting scum suki to bank on crossfire not being convinced by me. And then she could either NK me and hope crossfire wouldn't change his mind, or NK crossfire and hope I WIFOM myself into voting miltonkram.
I thought my defense of miltonkram was pretty good, but just yesterday crossfire was suspicious of miltonkram to the point of voting him, and still not suspicious of suki. If I had had to bet, I think I would've bet crossfire would reluctantly agree with me to lynch suki, but I'm really not sure.
So does she really think miltonkram would vote me over her on the last day? Again I may be biased, but I don't think miltonkram would.
--- This does make sense from a townie perspective, though, right? The onus is on me to convince milton that I'm not scum. And a scum sciberbia would definitely not take out me or milton. ---
So why would scum suki decide to accuse me and NK crossfire rather than accuse miltonkram and randomize the NK between me/crossfire? I guess it's possible that she judged the likeliness of (a) and (b) differently than me.
--- Why would I accuse sciberbia at all? If it's between you or miltonkram I think there's a much higher chance of convincing you that milton is scum than of convincing milton that you are scum. ---
I just realized something else. She could NK miltonkram tomorrow if crossfire buys into her case on me. So she really only needs to convince EITHER miltonkram OR crossfire to vote me, and she can WIFOM her way to a win. --- You think I'd NK milton and keep crossfire and sciberbia on? How is that beneficial to me?
If I was scum, do you really think I'd hedge my entire last-day plans on pinning you as scum? ---
ACTUALLY, I just realized something else. If nobody buys her case on sciberbia, she can still NK me and (maybe) get crossfire to lynch miltonkram? Hmm but miltonkram surely wouldn't NK me in that situation so I don't think crossfire would buy it. Goddamn this is confusing.
From the perspective of town suki, here is the question: + Show Spoiler + what is more likely: (a) sciberbia is mafia and suki can convince miltonkram/crossfire to vote him if crossfire/miltonkram dies (b) miltonkram is mafia and suki can convince crossfire/sciberbia to vote him if sciberbia/crossfire dies
Well, considering that just yesterday she was deadset on lynching miltonkram, and was repeatedly saying how I am surely town, (b) seems more likely. Unless she really, really liked my (her accused scum) defense of miltonkram. (b) just seems more likely. The entire game she has been insisting I am town, but she "liked the idea of miltonkram being mafia". So I'd find this a surprising move from a townie suki as well.
You made a really good defense of milton. What else am I going to do as town suki? If I was scum suki wouldn't it be easier to just keep pressing milton? It'd certainly be more consistent.
Instead I don't even know what I'm doing anymore and don't know who could be mafia.
Overall, I think that a townie suki pulling this move is less likely than a scum suki. Read her filter front to back. Does she really think I am mafia all of a sudden? I don't think so. --- here is my thought pattern. Sciberbia is really hard defending milton, discrediting my case against him, finding more townie things, so that I can't even pretend to think that he's scummy. Who is left to analyse?
On the surface, a scum sciberbia gains a lot by hard defending miltonkram. But on the other hand, a scum sciberbia would benefit more by not defending miltonkram and letting me and milton duke it out. ---I think it's more likely that she is mafia and for whatever reason judged that crossfire would vote her in the end, so decided to explore other options. Now she can NK miltonkram or crossfire depending on how they respond to her case. I guess she could also still NK me, but I think crossfire would see that she has to be mafia in that case. --- You really expect me to be that crafty? Personally, and I think you know this too, I'd have simply planned who was alive on the final day much better and not gotten into this spot in the first place if I was scum. ---one more thing in favor of suki being mafia + Show Spoiler + I meant to say this yesterday: at this point the last scum benefits greatly from lynching anybody besides themself. It is typical of the final scum to throw suspicion on anyone possible. This is not true of townies who only benefit from lynching the one scum. Who has been the most bloodthirsty D4/D5? Suki has been totally down with voting miltonkram, golden, and now me. Miltonkram wasn't too sure about suki/golden on D4, and thinks me and crossfire are town. This was another thing that made me think he is town.
Scum doesn't benefit from throwing suspicion on the most townie person though. Or keeping super townie people alive til the end.
Town however has no idea who is scum, and especially in this game, I'm just so confused. The only thing I know to do is to make a case on someone and judge the reactions.
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My analysis on sciberbia's recent townie case on Miltonkram:
On June 24 2012 05:13 sciberbia wrote:reasons why miltonkram looks really townInitial suspicions on roflwaffles + Show Spoiler +Miltonkram puts roflwaffles in his top 2 most suspicious about 21 hours into D1: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 06:38 Miltonkram wrote: roflwaffles55 I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia: ... Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight. ... Obviously all these players can't be scum. I'll be looking through the thread more to see what I can do about narrowing down my list of suspicious players. Right now I'm leaning towards roflwaffles and MJ. I'm waiting to see if suki actually defends herself this time around. Not only does he show suspicions on roflwaffles, but his reasoning is actually quite good. roflwaffles did make himself look scared by backing down off his top suspect just because people disagreed with his case. roflowaffles then made 2 posts. One post in which he said miltonkram had "defeated his own arguments" and then this post further pressuring alan: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 07:35 roflwaffles55 wrote: @alan
Interesting that the first legitimate read that you come up with is a conspiracy between me and suki. Not only is it completely ridiculous, but you second guess it immediately, again leaving your options open so that you can't actually be held accountable for anything. Put yourself on the line, start contributing to the big picture and not just responding emotionally to me, and think logically about what you're going to post.
The biggest thing that keeps irking me about your play is your seeming avoidance of actual decision making, the fact that even when criticizing my play you can't say "I think this is scummy". You go all the way around it and put the possible motivations from both angles.
I would appreciate it if someone other then me looked at alan133's posts and formed their own independent opinion on him.
Then, miltonkram backs off of roflwaffes, because miltonkram sees that roflwaffles is still pressuring alan. Now, this whole back-and-forth does seem like it could be an artificial conversation between two mafia. But, don't you think it would be a bit too obvious? Why does miltonkram back off of roflwaffles if this is a bussing thing? Nobody else showed any suspicions of roflwaffles, so it wasn't like roflwaffles was in any danger. I don't think it makes sense for a scum miltonkram would be backing off so quickly there. Surely he would realize it'd look suspicious if either him or roflwaffles ever died and flipped red. Anyway, I have to consider the whole thing with roflwaffles slight evidence in his favor. If Miltonkram really did bus HeavOnEarth, that means he kinda bussed both scumbuddies on D1. This seems a bit unnecessary and overly ambitious. Milton shows suspicion on rofls, but he then later backs rofls up by saying he appears less scummy for continuing his case on alan.
He also tries to point towards alan in the same post that he defends rofl.
You can say it would be a bit too obvious, but isn't that the simplest explanation? Milton might not be as crafty or self-aware as you would be as mafia. You can't discredit someone for being mafia just because their actions are too obviously mafia.
His movements on the alan bandwaggon+ Show Spoiler +I think this is really good evidence for miltonkram being town, especially relative to suki. Here is a summary of how the alan bandwaggon rolled on D1 + Show Spoiler + -- (1) roflwaffles accuses alan hard and votes him -- suki is not convinced -- crossfire is not convinced -- (2) miltonkram puts alan in his top 2 -- trackd00r is not convinced -- (3) s0Lstice jumps on the bandwaggon -- (4) suki changes her mind and jumps on the bandwaggon -- sciberbia defends alan -- (3) miltonkram backs down from alan -- golden will reserve judgement -- austinmcc is not convinced -- suki continues to attack alan -- (2) s0Lstice backs off alan -- (1) suki backs off alan -- (0) alan shoots roflwaffles and becomes confirmed town
Now miltonkram and roflwaffles being scumbuddies wouldn't make any sense here. roflwaffles brings up a case, two people aren't convinced, and then scumbuddy miltonkram jumps on the scum bandwaggon? What? Highly unlikely. I've read miltonkram's mafia QT from NMM XIV and he really tries not to tie himself to his scumbuddy. Then, after s0Lstice and suki jump on the bandwaggon, miltonkram jumps off, and posts a bit of defense for alan. How does a mafia miltonkram expect alan to get mislynched by behaving like that? --- Milton clearly puts mouldyjeb above alan in terms of suspicion. Also notice that immediately after he clears alan, he posts another list of suspects which includes Mouldyjeb and Crossfire, two cases which were gaining momentum at the time. ---
I think it's more likely that miltonkram read my defense of alan and liked it. He also looked back through alan's filter, and decided to back off of him. suki's movements on this bandwaggon look far more suspicious. She changes her mind at the worst possible times. --- But I've always given strong arguments for my actions. Timing is something I can't help, but the townie motivation is clear I feel. ---
His "bus" on HeavOnEarth+ Show Spoiler +This has to be counted in his favor. First, look at how he calls out HeavOnEarth twice for lurking: On June 14 2012 06:38 Miltonkram wrote: Golden + HeavOnEarth Get in the thread and post more. You guys can start by giving me your opinions on this post.
On June 14 2012 08:05 Miltonkram wrote: @Crossfire, Golden, and HeavOnEarth What do you think of these two players and the cases against them? Are there any scummy players you think we're missing? We need more activity out of you guys. Of the three of you, only heaven's put decent pressure on anyone and even that is difficult to take seriously because he hasn't followed up on his reads at all. Calling out a scumbuddy for lurking is not a big deal. It's actually an easy way for scum to look like they're contributing when really they're not doing all that much.Then, he is third on the HeavOnEarth bandwaggon, after me and s0Lstice. Seeing as HeavOnEarth was s0Lstice's top target, and in my top 3, and s0Lstice and I had a lot of thread influence, it would have been quite risky for a scum miltonkram to add any more fuel to the fire. Does he really want to get the godfather lynched D1? --- He was third to post suspicions, but he didn't put in his vote. At that point in the thread it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to say Crossfire or MouldyJeb would be the lynch target for the day. ---Then miltonkram goes to sleep, wakes up, and reads the thread. s0Lstice is pushing a HeavOnEarth lynch. alan has also voted him. Then miltonkram sensibly puts his vote on HeavOnEarth. All of miltonkram's actions contributed to the HeavOnEarth lynch, so it's certainly good evidence in favor of him being townie. --- Calling out HeavOn for lurking did not contribute that much. Putting HeavOnEarth in his top 3 helped a bit. The timing on his vote was not the best. It's not hard to think that he was preparing for an eventual bus on HeavOnEarth and it just so happened that that day was Day 1. --- Now what kind of lame-ass bus would these posts be? Miltonkram's pre-lynch nervousness has been held against him. At first, I saw it that way too. But if you really think about it, I think it's good evidence in his favor. On June 15 2012 05:33 Miltonkram wrote: Ok it's time we start consolidating lynch candidates. Right now it looks like people are interested in lynching Heaven,Crossfire, and maybe Golden. Am I correct? I think those are our realistic lynch candidates at this point. I'd suggest everyone limit their votes to these three players unless you think I'm overlooking something huge. On June 15 2012 05:48 Miltonkram wrote: @ Heaven There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time. Look at the thread temperature at that point. s0Lstice has been pushing for a HeavOnEarth lynch. alan, suki, miltonkram, and roflwaffles have all voted HeavOnEarth. sciberbia will surely vote HeavOnEarth. Now if miltonkram is mafia, he sees 5 votes on HeavOnEarth. The bandwaggon against him includes both scum AND s0Lstice/sciberbia. In what fantasy world is HeavOnEarth not getting lynched? If miltonkram is scum, he clearly already resigned himself to the fact that HeavOnEarth is getting lynched, seeing as both he and roflwaffles voted HeavOnEarth. So if miltonkram knows HeavOnEarth is getting lynched, and knows HeavOnEarth will flip scum, what on earth is the point of these 2 posts that don't make him look that great if HeavonEarth flips scum? Wouldn't he do better to look more committed to the lynch? This is one of the posts that struck me as very solid when I first read your defense of Milton. It really doesn't make sense for him to do such a thing. But perhaps, perhaps he was hoping for a last minute-save.
I can still see panicking-scum motivation to post this, but there could be townie motivation as well...
the NK of austinmcc + Show Spoiler + First of all, assuming golden flips VT (or scum), it's pretty obvious that we have no more blues >_<. Which means the last mafia is surely a goon. Having a roleblocker vs a mere vigilante & veteran is ridiculously overpowered. Additionally, nobody has been RB'd all game.
So killing austinmcc without even roleblocking him isn't nearly as much of a boon to mafia. They can't stop him shooting roflwaffles if he is vigi. And shooting a lynchable veteran is a terrible idea.
So I'm quite sure the NK of austinmcc was a suboptimal play. During N1, miltonkram would surely think he has some slim chance of winning the game as mafia, whereas suki would probably know she is dead. So I think suki is more likely to have made a suboptimal NK for the lulz or just some random reason not related to winning the game.
I think that my NK analysis was decent for the austin NK. Milton had put crossfire as one of his top 3 scum reads, and austin was heavily attacking crossfire.
In favor of suki though, she was active all night, whereas miltonkram was gone. Seeing as blues we had both submitted their night actions in a timely manner, the scrambling of the mods was likely done for mafia's benefit. More likely to be because of miltonkram than suki.
Overall, I don't think this is great evidence for either one of them (suki/miltonkram) over the other.
If miltonkram is really scum, he played one hell of a D1. Honestly since D1, he hasn't acted quite as townie, but he seems to have been really busy, and here are a couple things in his favor. His reasoning behind the breadcrumbing comment+ Show Spoiler +I see two possible reasons for his suggestion to get blues to breadcrumb at the end of N1: 1) He is town and thought this was a good idea 2) He is mafia and was desperately trying to find the (nonexistant >_<) cop When I asked him about his reasoning, he made this post" + Show Spoiler +On June 19 2012 03:53 Miltonkram wrote: @ sciberbia You had been commenting quite a bit on blue role play and I thought I needed to add my two cents. I was trying to figure out ways for us to get enough confirmed town players to make it impossible for scum to win. At first I was thinking about the possibility of confirming two townies if we had a jailkeeper. One would claim they were RB'd and the jailer would show us his/her breadcrumb. I thought of what could go wrong after I posted my advice. What if we had a scum RBer and they breadcrumbed their action and used this to become confirmed town? My mind kind of exploded then.
I was also thinking of confirming town players through a cop, but that would require this game not to be a setup with double godfathers. I find that a distinct possibility (if we have a cop) because I could see prplhz making a setup that is basically a "fuck you" to town players who rely too much on blue roles. Does this make sense? Basically my thoughts were chasing themselves around in circles and I didn't think all the possibilities through when I posted my breadcrumbing comment. I'm hoping everyone ignored it.
This strongly suggests to me that he is town. If a mafia miltonkram got called out on giving town bad advice, I'd expect some decent excuse. But here he shows some really in-depth thinking on the subject from a townie perspective. Reads quite townie to me. --- Disagree. It's easy to give an in depth explanation to make doubly sure that you look townie. Perhaps this is also a play that he would make as a townie too, so it was an easy defense. I read this whole breadcrumbing business as neutral. --- the NK of alan+ Show Spoiler + I've already talked about this a bit. I really think crossfire was a more sensible kill for miltonkram. If golden is mafia, I think he made a mistake by killing alan. He should have killed crossfire.
If the last mafia is suki/miltonkram, I have no doubt that they'd have some sort of plan for what went down today. Scum suki seems to have had a plan: kill alan --> get miltonkram lynched. Very straightforward.
But miltonkram not so much. First of all, he doesn't actually post until quite a bit of time has passed. This allows 2 votes to get thrown on him without much resistance. Then, he accuses golden moreso than suki.
I really don't think he'd have planned on lynching golden today. Leave sciberbia alive --> lynch golden doesn't seem like it would have been a solid plan.
--- Agree. Going after golden and soft-defending me really really doesn't make sense to me. This is one of the points that made me take a closer look at sciberbia.
However, maybe, just maybe, he figured you'd be dead set on lynching me on the last day, and he was safe from being lynched, so his end game plan was sciberbia, suki, miltonkram.
After all, you made the argument that how would milton expect to live through yesterday? And yet he did just that, and he made a big case on golden to do it. So perhaps his end game scenario really was sciberbia suki milton, and he was banking on you reading him as town the way you're doing now. ---
OK that's about all I've got on miltonkram. The only thing I really don't like about him is that he has been kinda quiet since D1, and only given reads on lynch targets of the day. But he has been quite busy, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. He reads strongly town to me. I'm not so willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. His post-day 1 play can definitely have scum motivation, and at the very least has not been helpful to town. His day 1 play I don't find convincingly townie. You make some really good points but I really don't think he's as townie as you make him out to be. I'm going to be afk a couple hours, but I'll be here at the deadline tonight. Hopefully this whole post was a complete waste of time
sciberbia, It seems like you're dismissing all the scummy points on Milton as being 'too obvious' for a scum milton... Doesn't that seem weird? This is a newbie game too, how can you expect picture-perfect mafia play?
How can you view me as scum, when you look at my play style for this entire game? When you look at the NK choices? All your evidence against me is circumstantial, but my play has clearly had town motivations. I've been wrong a million times, but at least I've had the motivation to put my neck out and find scum. Milton hasn't even lifted a finger. Your self-defense is very good. Your defense of Milton is very good. But one of those defenses is wrong. If you know that you're town, then have another look at Milton if you want to win this game.
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On June 25 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 22 2012 12:58 suki wrote:
And Crossfire has two big things going for him in my mind (aside from all the other points put forth by other players). The first is his case against sciberbia. No scum is going to attack the strongest townie in the game. They are just gonna shoot him at night. If a scum is gonna be aggressive at all he's gonna target the easy targets. Second, I really really have faith in my meta-game read on him. His helpful tone in the beginning is consistent with his helpful tone in the mafia QT in his past game. This is not something you fake as mafia, this is part of one's personality. He genuinely wants to help town and the helpful tone bubbles out. If he were mafia, that desire to help would not be so genuine.
Suki, is the bolded part no longer valid in your town read on me since you think sciberbia is the last scum? If so, is the only reason you trust me because of meta?
My case on sciberbia being the last scum doesn't affect my read on you. If you're the last scum, you still wouldn't target sciberbia. You'd probably target me or milton.
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I've made two cases during this night. The first is a big case on sciberbia. The second is addressing sciberbia's defense on Milton and showing why he isn't necessarily town.
My reads, for clarity, are as follows:
Crossfire - Town sciberbia - Most likely town due to his solid defense and certain end game decisions not making sense from a scum sciberbia point of view. Milton - Most likely scum. Due to his lack of action post day-1, due to his day 1 still being able to be scummy even tho it's got a townie feel overall. Due to sciberbia most likely being town.
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On Milton's analysis of players:
suki
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Points against her: - She ignored my pressure against her D1 until I commented that she was ignoring it. - She made a bad case against trackd00r and backed down from it after being called out. Her defense of this play was also unsatisfactory.
Out of all the scummy things you could think of to pin on me Milton, you chose that I ignored your pressure on me D1? I clearly answered it. Your case, now that I look back on it, seems especially try-hard:
Suki has been painting track's two posts as directly contradictory even though they aren't. This could be an overzealous town play but I don't think it is. What possible motivation could there be for a strong attack on someone with a controversial opinion? Firstly, there's the chance that the town might bandwagon on it. This would be the best possible scenario for suki if she is scum. She leads a bandwagon D1 and she gets a mislynch. Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now.
I didn't think your case against me was strong. I didn't like how you presented it. I don't like how you've brought up this trivial piece of information so late in the game, as if to say, look I contributed. There's definite scum motivation in bringing up tiny points that really have no relevance to the current discussion.
I have responded to the trackd00r case issue and have nothing more to say on that matter. It's weird how you seem to be referencing my first case against trackd00r, the very first case of the game. Let me go to your points on sciberbia.
The first two points on his vote timing on HeavOnEarth and timing of attack on rofls was already discussed. The last point, nailing sciberbia for discussing blues? That also seems extremely try-hard.
Why do you only focus on Day 1 actions? You completely ignore all that has happened since then, but even if the last scum has no one to protect or cover for, the motivations are still all there. I find your analysis to be trite and incomplete, but the biggest issue I have with it is that through our analysis of only day 1 actions, you somehow come to the conclusion that sciberbia is more scummy than I am. Nevermind all the cross-analysis that has been done over the entire game.
Regarding Crossfire's analysis of Milton's analysis
I agree with everything Crossfire has said. It's strange how he attacked sciberbia instead of me. It's strange how his view of me has flipped so many times without much reason. It's strange how sciberbia is somehow more suspicious than I am despite sciberbia's constant tunneling of me and finding every little thing he can as scummy. Milton's case against golden can definitely be seen as relying on me to make the case against golden while he sits in the background. It also fits with his entire play style since the end of N1 - quiet, bandwagon-y, avoiding commentary on anyone except the current lynch target.
My NK analysis and who I am going to vote for
Sciberbia died. That was a pretty big shock to me. Especially after sciberbia's big post just before the day post, it seems that nothing I would say would keep him from lynching me on the final day.
This is a huge blunder from Milton. Perhaps he thought there was a good chance that I would go after sciberbia. By agreeing with me on sciberbia, he buddies up with me. Then sciberbia dies, and the big question is, why would Miltonkram NK sciberbia, when Crossfire clearly will go for a Milton lynch on the final day?
It made me take a really close look at Crossfire's filter, that's for sure. After all, if Crossfire is scum, then he can't kill himself. So his only option is to kill sciberbia. Crossfire's only option is to kill sciberbia. Milton's best option is to kill Crossfire. Therefore, by analysing this NK alone you could conclude that Crossfire is quite possibly the last scum.
But I don't see Crossfire's play as scummy. + Show Spoiler + Crossfire's play has been very townie this game. Aside from my meta read on him, there are quite a few things that I like about his play.
First, he attacked me early on, but quickly backed off when he realized his argument was flawed (knowing that alan was blue). Scum are more careful about attacking people for easily rebutted reasons, and even more careful about backing off quickly. Crossfire also targeted sciberbia who was strong townie, also a risky move for mafia. He was eager to arrange a meeting time to chat with sciberbia in-thread. Crossfire was the target of HeavOnEarth and Roflwaffles early game. They were quite set on getting him mislynched. Miltonkram, too, also applied some light pressure on crossfire. Austinmcc, the night 1 mafia kill, had strongly pushed for Crossfire's lynch. All signs point to mafia trying to kill Crossfire, and there's no reason to do that so early in the game if Crossfire is mafia.
On top of that, there's precedence for this NK: Milton's analysis post.
Milton's sudden and weakly motivated switch on sciberbia, followed by his NK of sciberbia, could be a last ditch effort to sow confusion. Switching his vote to sciberbia seems like a ploy to get me on his side, since from my tone on the case on sciberbia I had cleared Milton from suspicion. Now, if he can get me on his side, then killing sciberbia is a good way for me to stay on his side. After all, a NK of sciberbia doesn't benefit a scum miltonkram, but it benefits a scum crossfire. In addition, a NK of sciberbia greatly benefits a scum suki. So this NK works both ways. If either crossfire or me read too much into this NK and votes the other, then Milton just has to piggy-back on one of us and win the game.
My read on Crossfire is strongly town. In addition, Milton just looks so scummy to me.
Here is a short summary post of why I felt Milton was suspicious prior to switching to golden: + Show Spoiler +On June 23 2012 01:04 suki wrote:Eh I still think Milton looks suspicious. his slips: His soft defense of roflwaffles ("..the unvote seems less scummy") His soft support of rofls ("as far as alan133 is concerned you may have something") His nervousness pre-heaven lynch his playstyle: following rofl's death, he stopped contributing to town and simply followed the strongest case. his busses were easy to do. crossfire's recent post Show nested quote +So he went from being pretty much convinced of suki's townieness and really liking her case to thinking she's scum in the second post, but then we should ignore her? Huh??? Finally, he says suki is scum if unforgiven is green. What convinced him so completely that suki is scum? He never mentioned it in his posts. He just says she is scum. Also I don't get how if someone is the most logical candidate for a lynch you should just ignore them. Thinking on why he hasn't taken a strong stance on me: Prior to today, it was beneficial for him to not take a strong stance on me or even read me as town. I have been the primary suspect for so long that if I got lynched, the other players would look bad for pushing my lynch and he gets to stay out of the spotlight. Perhaps due to the fact that he's never seen me as scummy, he can't help to push my lynch or he'd look really suspicious (due to inconsistency). This weird non-committal response on who is town is the best he can manage and still stay consistent with his previous views. I don't know how he plans to survive the final day, I really don't. But I still think he slipped several times and that you can find scum motivation for his play style and posts. Maybe the best he can come up with is to have me crossfire and himself at the end of the game and pull some WIFOM sneakiness against me. I don't know how to analyse the NK and make it fit Milton without resorting to WIFOM. But I don't think it discounts my case on him purely because there's possible WIFOM going on.
Now on top of all that, we also have Milton's flip-flopping opinion of me, AND his extremely suspicious, poorly-reasoned case on sciberbia.
Since there's only 3 people left in the game, this post is for Crossfire's benefit. If you are considering that I am scum because of the NK, do what I did with you. I had a really good town read on you, but looking at Milton's play he's just played so suspicious (especially in this final day) that I can't see his play as being pro-town or town-motivated. It just makes no sense from a town perspective. His vote timings on rofl and heavon were safe, he never initiated a case against someone else (minus golden, but he waited for me to jump on), and he never analysed anyone except someone with a strong case against them. The NK's too, make sense when you consider a scum Milton's motivations.
In short, I'm convinced that Milton is the last scum.
##vote Miltonkram
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In defense of her actions suki attempts to point out that part of her reasoning behind the trackd00r attack was "to get the ball rolling." This seems like a catch-all defense for scummy actions.
I only used that reasoning once, and everyone generally seems to agree that it did get the ball rolling. You're putting too much weight on this first case.
She then pressures alan133 for making controversial/confusing statements. I think this is a little more justified here because I believe alan's logic was a little flawed. But still, are you noticing a pattern? Suki pressured two players who looked weak from their first posts. Attacking weak/illogical/confusing players is not a town motivation. It's a scum motivation attempting to get a mislynch.
Actually my case on alan was also focused around him not contributing to town, which definitely have scum motivations.
In this, she criticizes HeavOn's play while also posting a soft defense of him. It looks like she was trying to slow down the bandwagon on him while still leaving herself open to bussing him.
This is one of the points that sciberbia and other people suspicious of me like to point out. My defense was and is that I was focused on alan at the time, and a quick look over HeavOnEarth's filter didn't read especially scummy to me.
Notice how she plants the idea of bias in other people's reads on her. It seems like a way to defend herself without actually addressing the points brought against her. She also dismisses her comments on appearing bold as WIFOM, another way of deflecting pressure off of her comments. To be fair, she had spent a good bit of time defending herself D1 so this point in and of itself is not particularly damning.
Eh. Nothing to say here. I was genuinely confused why s0lstice was targetting me. I had previously addressed his case on me in this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15079153
I find it odd that suki has attacked me so harshly for being nervous when it's pretty obvious that she knows there is good reason for being nervous before a lynch. After all it seems like she was pretty nervous too. Double standard much?
Haha. I quoted a post from Xatalos that was the exact type of 'nervous' post that you made - one that's made from scum motivations. Comparing your nervous post and my 'nervous' post is like comparing apples and oranges.
Also your comment at the end... Well in like 4 hours you'll see that my post was made with genuine town perspective :o
Neways.
@Crossfire - Glad you support me. I think we got this in the bag.
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On June 27 2012 05:05 Miltonkram wrote: Ok Crossfire. The case mostly deals with D1 stuff, since that's when I feel she made her major errors.
Also, please keep in mind that your opinion towards me has been pretty constant for a while.
Suki has already pointed out how a scum me could still be motivated to NK sciberbia. By that coin, suki's motivation in NK'ing sciberbia would have been to kill him, and then point out exactly what she pointed out.
If I'm scum, I had the option of killing either you or sciberbia. Do you honestly think I had the confidence to convince you of my case, even with NK implications in my favor?
Anyway, I'll be back shortly.
See, now we get into the real WIFOM-y stuff. I mean, this is such a sub-optimal NK for milton, there's no way he would have made it. Therefore he must be town. Therefore even though you have a strong town read of suki, you should vote suki cuz clearly she's the only one who would have NK'd sciberbia.
See, it goes both ways. That's why I said, don't make your final decision purely based on this last NK. Look at all the scummy and suspicious things Milton has done for the whole game, compared to my play, and judge for yourself.
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Just gonna re-post this.
His nervousness pre-lynch of HeavOn:
@ Heaven There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time.
This quote reminds me a LOT of a quote by Xatalos in Mafia XV:
Suki, where are you when you need to defend yourself? The bandwagon on you is gathering steam, but you're nowhere to be seen. And I don't even think you're Mafia. Do a favor for everyone and show up right now.
This was what Xatalos posted in the game when there was a bandwagon growing on me while I was away. Basically, it's a last-ditch effort for mafia to tell their teammate to post, JUST IN CASE they weren't checking the mafia QT but were checking the main thread.
When Milton posted this, it stuck out to me as really odd. Now I think this is a pure scum slip, disguised to be a 'helpful townie' post. There is definite mafia motivation for this post, but not really any townie motivation.
Now contrast this with his certainty of trackd00r and unforgiven being scum. There has been no hesitation in his reads, no questioning of who could possibly be mafia. The person on the chopping block has been his main read every time.
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