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Newbie Mini Mafia XVII - Page 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 14 2012 19:04 GMT
#200
EBWOP: soLstice is a dummy. consolodate=consolidate.
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 14 2012 22:49 GMT
#215
Yea the way the votes fell gives me a sinking feeling. I'm trying to remain optimistic, the way his case gained momentum would make bussing an option that scum would have to consider if he is indeed scum. Suspense is killing me.

Austin and suki had both asked me questions iirc. I'll answer those next time I get a chance after the flip.
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 14 2012 23:18 GMT
#219
Yea it's just nerves pre-lynch nerves sciberbia. I have confidence in the strength of the read, but the bar was set pretty high (thanks to you and ange ) last game with the scum hit on day 1. I'm badly wanting a repeat, and I got mad jitters. Also I thought the deadline was 7EDT so FML with this suspense.
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 14 2012 23:18 GMT
#220
Also, I count 7 votes on HeavOnEarth. though golden didn't format his properly so it may not count... thank goodness for only needing 6 votes.
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 14 2012 23:33 GMT
#225
my vote is on HeavOnEarth my dear host, I have merely FoS'ed Rofflwaffles55
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 14 2012 23:33 GMT
#226
miltoninja activate!
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 14 2012 23:44 GMT
#228
Austin, you do have a point about Crossfire99 not really scumhunting. I'll be going through everyone's filters again on N1, I'll pay close attention to his. Consider though...he has a pattern of inactivity no matter what he rolls. He could have came back, saw that his name was in the lynch hat, and thought that his limited time was best spent defending himself. I don't see this as unreasonable.

This is not an excuse for him, just food for thought. He is going to have some work to do on night 1/day 2 to prove that he is pursuing the town win condition.
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 15 2012 00:10 GMT
#242
Rock and roll
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 15 2012 00:11 GMT
#244
Pretty sure I've got an idea of who his buds are too ;D
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 15 2012 00:33 GMT
#249
On June 15 2012 09:08 prplhz wrote:
Heavonearth got lynched.


This blue part scared the ever loving shit out of me
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 15 2012 01:31 GMT
#253
On June 15 2012 10:02 Miltonkram wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 15 2012 09:08 prplhz wrote:
Heavonearth got lynched.



This blue part scared the ever loving shit out of me

Memories of hegeo, s0Lstice? heh heh heh


lol yes Zen_Man too from XVI. In half of my games I have ended up on a medic lynch bandwagon D1. <---- that's me
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 15 2012 11:21 GMT
#265
Wow, I wasn't expecting to see so much new stuff on my morning refresh. I'm glad N1 is not a silent night. I'll be posting a larger post before N1 is over, but sciberbia and alan133 are spot on with our best day 2 lynch candidate.

Scum #2: roflewaffles55

I have an idea of who #3 is too, stay tuned.
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 15 2012 13:39 GMT
#268
alan133,

writing in bits and pieces at work, it's coming. I want to contest one of your suggestions quickly.

Vigi, if you are out there, do NOT use your shot on roflwaffles55. Do one of the following:

1) Save your shot
2) Use it on a person you strongly think is scum #3


I feel that roflwaffles is going to be the day 2 lynch, there is no reason to use a bullet on him. He is a dead man walking.
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 15 2012 14:03 GMT
#270
Yea that's a good point. Thanks austin, and sorry alan.

Go on ahead and shoot roflewaffles my dear Vigi, if you are out there
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 15 2012 19:23 GMT
#283
Alright so there aren't many fish in this sea. The two bad ones are roflewaffles55 and suki.

Roflewaffles55

I won't rehash. If you are still not convinced go have a look at sciberbia's and alan's cases. This is a done deal in my mind.

Suki

She learned a lot from her first game as scum, and it showed this game. She looked pro-town enough for me to set her aside in favor of other endeavors. That said, there is plenty of incriminating evidence in her filter to be had. I'll organize this as best as I can.

Let's look at how she has been going after the town win condition:

Her case on trackd00r:
+ Show Spoiler +

She divebombs the thread with this accusation as her first post, and then in short order backs down from it when it doesn't gain any traction.

On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
As has been pointed out, the contradiction isn't as severe as I initially thought it was.

##unvote trackd00r

I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r, however my case was too weak and I feel that no useful information can be gleamed from people simply agreeing on its flimsiness.

On June 14 2012 13:21 suki wrote:
Quite simply you (and several other people after you) answered your question. The motivation is to get the ball rolling some way, any way. I feel I failed a bit in that regard as my attack was so full of holes that there hardly was any discussion developed from it, but it was made with good intentions.

On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
My case on trackd00r was/is a flop, and up until your vote on alan no one has really pointed out anything suspicious about any other player

On June 14 2012 13:36 suki wrote:
@sciberbia

I think a lot of your argument stems from the impression that I was absolutely sure trackd00r was scum. I definitely worded my post that way on purpose, in spite of knowing my case wasn't solid.

I was genuinely surprised that my case was as weak as it was. Basically one good post from you was strong enough to let everyone basically say 'yeah, I agree.' My comment that 'at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r' was because I thought even if my case was really weak, I could aggravate an interesting reply from trackd00r, but it didn't.

Regarding the contradiction, and the comment that the contradiction isn't as severe as I thought it was. It's simply not taking the time to really think about the topic, after reading the rebuttals and being disappointed. There is no contradiction, it was just me being careless with my choice of words.

Actually, the offhanded and subtly confident way he deflected my attack is a townie point for him in my book, so as it stands I don't suspect trackd00r at all.

On June 14 2012 13:36 suki wrote:
As for opening the game, I posted my policy post after the accusation because I wrote the accusation first. I did want to start the thread off boldly, I'll give you that.


Look at how she dances around. She explains what was going through her head in 3 different ways:
-I knew the case was weak when I posted it
-I didn't know the case was weak until people told me after I posted it
-I thought my case may have been weak, but I was just trying to get the discussion going.

Also that last quote is scum-slip. Sciberbia pointed it out earlier. A townie has one agenda: finding scum. Scum have several agenda: stay alive, sow confusion, cause chaos. Admitting to adhering to an agenda of aggressiveness for it's own sake is very scummy. Suki has addressed this point, calling it WIFOM. Minus her comment on the matter, it would be WIFOM. It is her stated reason for wanting to appear aggressive that makes it a scum-slip instead.

She has returned to trackd00r recently, and I'll address that later.


Her case on alan133:

+ Show Spoiler +
She starts out defending him from her scumbuddy, naturally. Frankly, what she says is right, so it's whatever. After alan defends himself, she goes on the attack. Her case was not a bad one. You could find in a lot of games a townie making a case using the same type of ammunition. That said, there is really only one strong point, and that is his knee-jerk defense. The rest is that he accuses his accusers, and his neutrality on day 1 I advise you to go look at it for yourself, and notice her vigor. She really goes after this read.

As we start approaching lynch time, the people who joined her on being suspicious of alan133 begin changing their minds (me being one). HeavOnEarth was increasingly looking like the day 1 lynch. She drops her read on alan133 like it's hot, and commits to bussing her teammate. This is how I can tell she learned from her first scum game. She parrots the reasons for pardoning alan133 pretty effectively, and actually does some grunt work by adding to the case on her teammate before jumping aboard. The fact of it is though, even after all of that she looks like a shapeshifter. She's very aware of what is making her look town and adjusts accordingly. Trackd00r doesn't look scummy? Get off trackd00r. Alan133 is looking town? Get off alan. HeavOnEarth is looking scummy? Get on HeavOnEarth.


Back to trackd00r:

+ Show Spoiler +
Remember this first
On June 14 2012 13:36 suki wrote:
Actually, the offhanded and subtly confident way he deflected my attack is a townie point for him in my book, so as it stands I don't suspect trackd00r at all.


Following the lynch of her 1st teammate, and the certain death of her 2nd teammate, she is back to full throttle on trackd00r, with no in between.

There is a lot of effort in this new case. There's a few things I want to point out:
On June 15 2012 14:01 suki wrote:
He targets Crossfire. At this point Crossfire is under pressure by austin, roflwaffle, Milton, and sciberbia. Golden and I have been the ones backing crossfire up.


Here is her 'backing Crossfire up.'
On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
Crossfire99:

I spent a lot of time trying to figure out if he is scum or not. Looking into the filter of his two previous games, I found that his posting style is more or less the same.

In game 1, he rolls blue and lurks quite hard. He states out of game reasons for lurking, but he plays more or less non-commital, pointing out suspicious behavior but not really heavily pressuring anyone.

In game 2 as mafia, he starts out the game by doing two things. First, he posts a defense of a townie that had come under scrutiny. Second, he immediately starts pointing out errors in one particular person's posts. He actually tunnels this person for the entire Day 1 and only just fails to get him lynched. He survives for the whole game without really being under fire and mafia wins the game.

In this game I see a lot of policy talk, a lot of guidance talk, and hardly any pressure at all. I find it quite different from his previously successful mafia play. In addition, his helpful tone is quite present in the mafia QT from the previous game, which makes me feel more inclined to think he's actually trying to help, despite his posts not really pressuring or helping town much.

Basically, his meta has changed from his last scum game, and it's changed in a confusing way, and he isn't using the tactics that lead him to a win in the previous game. I'm waiting for more contributions from him before deciding whether I think he's scum or not.


To me that looks like: I don't know.

I'll go through her summarized points.
On June 15 2012 14:01 suki wrote:
I've gone through trackd00r's play in detail, now I'd like to summarize the points and explain why each point is suspicious.

1. Soft aggression vs Mouldy early on but later says he's not convinced. Slightly important point because Mafia want to avoid all targetting the same people.

2. Goes after Crossfire and Golden. Crossfire was a sort of easy bandwagon since so many players were after him. The Golden push is suspicious because so few people targeted him, one of whom was HeavOnEarth.

3. Does not comment on HeavOnEarth at all until the very very end. Definitely scum motivation for avoiding this. trackd00r was around back when s0lstice first started his push on HeavOnEarth. That was when trackd00r was pushing his cases against Crossfire and Golden.

4. His cases are all weak. He never points out scummy play despite singling out the three people who he would push for a lynch. His arguments are weak and consist of not contributing and not playing 'satisfactorily'.

There's no townie motivation that late in the day to simply target people for unsatisfactory play, as opposed to finding scummy play. There is plenty of scum motivation to try to find something, anything, to attack, while not putting themselves fully on the radar.

5. He bandwagons at the last minute on HeavOnEarth. A pointless move. His analysis is flaky. He says, "I must admit that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game."


1- Being undecided on Mouldy was not weird, because his filter was empty.
2- Newb townie making the wrong reads. Hell I've pushed Golden myself when I was town, his play was similar to this game. Him being on Crossfire99 is a point, as that movement ran counter to a scum lynch.
3- Yup he came late to HeavOnEarth. Possibly scummy. Also possibly busy town.
4- Weak arguments can be scummy. They can also be newb town. Just ask our newcomer Unforgiven, who made some kick-ass reads but couldn't argue them effectively.
5- Again, being late could be scummy, but also busy townie. At that point, everything that there was to say on HeavOnEarth was said. He agreed, so he said so.

The case feels contrived, trumped up. I invite you to read it and see if you agree.


Concerning her teammates:
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
About HeavOnEarth:


HeavOn's attack against Golden is weak, and his offhanded comment on MouldyJeb is simplistic. His points against Crossfire are thought out and straightforward.

While he has not taken a strong stance against anyone, he's also not been wishy washy. He's also kind of aggravating, mocking and provoking MJ and golden while waiting for their responses. He hasn't contributed much, especially in the way of the major cases of the day, which is a big point against him. I feel HeavOn isn't as suspicious as people are making him out to be, and am waiting for his response on topics such as me, alan113 and crossfire before making a decision.


This is a non-opinion opinion. She lists points for and against, dances around a hard stance. This is what scum looks like when they talk about their teammates with no public opinion to go off of.

Remember that shapeshifter thing I was talking about? She goes from 0 to 60 on this guy, when the thread was telling her it was time to. Add another: she busses the shit out of her other teammate roflwaffles just after the paint dries on target painted on him.


Summary:

+ Show Spoiler +
She made a big blunder early game with her first case, contradicting herself and retreating from it as if it was leprous. Following that, she basically bounces around like a ping-pong ball, based on the current temperature of the thread. She is aggressive when she feels it's safe, and withdraws when it's not. All-in-all I feel she played a pretty good game, but the evidence is still bountiful.




disclaimer:
+ Show Spoiler +
I know others have been on Suki's case, in my haste I didn't have the time to cross-reference what I'm regurgitating and what's new. I'm gonna have a look now that I'm done typing this, and I hope everyone else re-reads other's cases on suki as well. Off-hand I know sciberbia, milton, and alan have posted things on her.



ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 15 2012 19:24 GMT
#284
Welcome to the game Unforgiven!
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 15 2012 19:38 GMT
#288
Alan I think you were right from the very beginning. Maybe not your reasoning, but your conclusion ;D
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 15 2012 21:44 GMT
#292
Unfortunately I'm out of the house for a lot of tonight. On my phone right now, don't think ill be able to make a well formed opinion on this thing. Ill say that my cursory opinion on Austin is town. He's in tl Mafia lv I believe, so his time is split. Not sure if that affects your opinion on him or not. Everyone should follow through on unforgivens suggestion and see what you think.
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 16 2012 00:06 GMT
#308
gg austin!

vigi should claim the shot no? would give us a confirmed townie
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 16 2012 00:07 GMT
#309
gg roflwaffles!
ATOBTTR
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