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I have a really crazy idea. I am not sure whether it should be taken seriously or not, but my gut is telling me to lynch the survivor mason pair rather than xsksc.
The reason is math, not scumhunting. Everything except this very last day points to xsksc being scum, and a scum trying to save himself by appearing townie is exactly that.
However, lets go through the scenarios.
Scenario 1: The currently assumed scenario: xsksc is scum.
a) We lynch xsksc. This either wins us the game, or the game continues. Either way we lynched scum. Yay us. If the game continues then we STILL have to choose who is the last anti-town: ghost or the mason pair. Chances are we lynch the mason pair in any case. The only difference with starting with a mason pair lynch is that we take out a KP, and win with a bigger margin (and also have a bigger margin if there is some funky KP on that final scum role.
b) We lynch SnB. If he flips anti-town we have found another scumteam. If he flips 3rd party, we proceed tomorrow with the xsksc lynch. This probably means we have a NK to deal with tonight, putting us at a presumed 4v1v2 (2 3rd party). This is still a completely winning position to be in as town.
Scenario 2: The second-most plausible scenario: Hyaach is scum.
a) We lynch xsksc. He flips green and we lynch Hyaach tomorrow (eating a NK). If the game ends, yay us! If the game continues, then we are in a similar situation as scenario 1, but with 1 less townie. Who do we lynch? ghost? Or the mason pair. At this point it is almost certainly mylo, so we definitely lynch 3rd party, and just to be sure we HAVE to lynch the mason pair (to ensure we're not actually in a 3v2v1 situation. If ghost is a rogue 3rd party, then we get another shot at him after the NK). Another option is to lynch into drazerk and deconduo, but they (currently) seem less likely than the 3rd parties.
b) There are no downsides to bringing forward the mason pair kill. We lynch a mason and eat a NK from the scum. xsksc flips town tomorrow. We eat another NK and are at mylo. We then lynch Hyaach. The only thing is that we now have an extra opportunity for xsksc to use his DT skills! We already lynched a mason, so don't have to worry about him. We thus fire a DT check at Drazerk. This gives us a LOT more info at lylo.
Scenario 3: ghost is scum.
Let me note that in this scenario there is guaranteed to be another scum, who is a framer.
a) We lynch xsksc on the next night. Hyaach roleblocks ghost again. Now, if there is no NK, we should lynch ghost before Hyaach: there is really no reason for Hyaach to hold his KP two nights in a row (unless both Hyaach and ghost are scum, so distinguishing between scenarios 2 and 3 is hard and should only be dealt with after the no NK night actually happens). If we lynch ghost, we take out the scum and have to hunt down the framer. This probably means lynching into our 3rd party survivor team!
b) We lynch into our 3rd party survivor team, who either flips scum (found the framer or his buddy) or regular old 3rd party. However, once again, we give the DT that extra night to perform DT checks. Because the scum KP is getting roleblocked there's still no NKs, so we're golden.
Scenario 4: none of our scummy 3some is scum.
Similar to scenario 3, but with KP. We just need to keep our eyes open.
TLDR: the only situation in which I can see lynching one of our claimed 3rd party survivors as detrimental is if xsksc is scum and someone in our "confirmed town" team is scum too. This scenario is just really really unlikely to me. If xsksc is scum and one of our 3rd parties is also scum, we'll get around to them in any case and sooner vs. later makes little difference. If xsksc is town, then lynching into the 3rd party will happen eventually anyway, and doing it sooner vs. later gives us more DT info.
In the realistic scenarios, we can say that at worst it kills a 3rd party (who still wins due to mason!) and delays the town win by 1 day. At best, it saves us a world of trouble.
##unvote
##vote strongandbig
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Oh, and if I made a mistake in my reasoning somewhere, please point it out. It is purely calculated risk: I still think it's far more likely that we're in scenario 1 (xsksc is scum). I just think we should plan for the worst, and lynching a 3rd party for info avoids a lot of the "worst" if we are wrong on xsksc and is hardly detrimental if xsksc is actually scum.
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@Drazerk: why is the role broken? It's a mason pair, but instead of being town, they're neutral. I fail to see why this is OP. What I do think is that we should kill one of them to confirm the other.
I also knew you would be onboard, because murder has always been your thing 
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Lol. Never thought of it that way. You're right of course. That makes me feel even better about killing one of them.
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I think S&B is being wayyyyy too paranoid about Drazerk. The OP states there is a Vanilla Townie in the game. VTs don't have KP and I don't think we're being trolled that hard. Also, why the hell would a 3rd party VT bother killing another 3rd party. Also, lets play this completely clinically: if Drazerk IS a third party and his wincon is to outlive you two, then why the hell do I (a townie) care which one of you wins? So far I think Hiro has done a great job helping town and would be sorry to see him lose for his effort (assuming he's 3rd party). On the other hand, I am not impressed at all by your play, your strange speculations, and your extreme fear of dying.
Also, I am not excluding the possibility of a traitor, but your insistence of its presence is weird. I detailed exactly what situations can occur and nothing you have said effects it much. If the final scum is in the group of "confirmed" townies, we're screwed ANYWAY. Lets check that situation out:
1. We lynch xsksksk. He's town and someone gets shot at night.
2. We lynch Hyaach. He was framed and is also town. Someone gets shot at night.
3. You three (ghost, Hiro, SnB) are 3rd party, so now we are at: 1v1v3. AKA town lost the game.
Lynching a 3rd party today does NOT change the time we have. It just makes it 0v1v3 after the last night (so technically the last day is lylo instead of mylo). However, in this unlikely situation it DOES improve our chances at lylo, because we have an extra DT control to go on AND information about the alignment of Hiro-SnB.
SnB's fear of dying and his reasoning around it is setting off all kinds of alarmbells in my head.
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If you haven't been lying about your role, then who in their right mind is going to shoot you?
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Framed or miller is pretty much the same as far as I'm concerned.
1v1v3 is a LOSS for town. Straight from the Maju role pm:
You win when the number of scum alive are equal or outnumber the number of Town-aligned players alive. 3rd Party do not count.
If one of the "confirmed" townies is scum, then it really IS better to lynch SnB right now. It matters nothing to town whether we lose at 0v1v2 or 1v1v3. The chance of PREVENTING the 0v1v2 happening is better if we lynch you now, rather than after xsksc is dead (which would also make tomorrow mylo, so if xsksc is town, then lynching Hyaach tomorrow would be dumb).
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On June 25 2012 22:03 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2012 18:05 Drazerk wrote:
Well its much better than a no brain sacrificial lamb vote at any rate and I've been paranoid about the mason pair considering just how broken that role really is and I can't imagine anyone using it without some major drawback involved.
S+B wants to stay alive the most so I want to kill him first so... ##vote strongandbig
If scum was hanging on their KP last night they are basically forced to do it again anyway so it shouldn't matter that much delaying the sacrificial lambs This is super fishy. Why would scum hold their KP again tonight?
Why is it fishy? I don't see much reason to hold their KP again tonight, but I don't know why the comment is fishy, it's just wrong (I think).
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On June 25 2012 22:30 xsksc wrote:
I don't see why you care about dying, you still win when Hiro lives right? Nobody has a reason to kill him, or they'd have done it already...besides why should we care if you win or not? The fact you're so paranoid about dying just gives us more reason to kill you lol.
I agree with the scum! Kill (uncover) the other scumteam!
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On June 25 2012 23:06 ghost_403 wrote:
But they aren't claiming to be the DT. Maju's PM says that he gets to frame a player Night 0, and that player will get checked opposite the rest of the game. The rules state that any wrong alignment check will read wrong the entire game. That doesn't make it sound like a framer role is possible in this game.
I would expect someone claiming to be the DT to pick up on these sorts of things.
This is a pretty damned good catch, ghost. Makes me doubt my plan (the only situation in which it's a bad plan is if xsksc is actually scum). All the evidence mounting up against xsksc, but for now I'll stick with it. Everybody else should use their own judgement.
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Quick recap on the pros and cons of the plan:
1. If xsksc is the last scum, it doesn't matter (just delays the win by a day).
2. If xsksc is scum and so is one of the "confirmed townies", the plan may be bad for us.
3. If xsksc is scum and so is (at least) one of the 3rd parties, the plan is not detrimental and may be beneficial.
4. If xsksc is not scum, the plan is clearly beneficial to us.
I still weigh the chance of 4 being true greater than the chance of 2 being true. 1 and 3 are more likely than either, so the plan is most probably neutral.
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I think SnB was mainly aiming at my analysis, where I assumed that if xsksc and Hyaach are both town, then there is a framer. I agree that in the initial post I forgot about the existence of millers. In the follow-up, however, you had already mentioned that possibility and I fail to see why the difference between being framed and being a miller is so important to you. The key point of the scenario is that there is a scum on the loose.
From a purely coherence of role name point of view, Tyrion the MILLER roleblocker makes a hell-of-a-lot of sense. In fact, I believe I mentioned it in the ScumQT of GoT mafia that Tyrion could just roleclaim his own name and say he's a miller :D
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@Tali: what makes you think Hyaach is scummier than xsksc? Is it the mechanics? Or is it his behaviour? Basically up until I wrote the two cases, I found Hyaach to have a moderately acceptable filter, whereas xsksc's was terrible. Since then Hyaach has lurked and xsksc has acted townie (I agree with you there). Acting townie when your life's on the line is pretty easy though, for scum. Even Majuju managed to do it in Holy Roman and he was scummy as all hell until the pressure really came on. Then he made some decent contributions before he flipped scum. Enough to convince me and some others that he was less scummy than Sinani (turned out he was exactly equally scummy as Sinani )
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On June 26 2012 01:48 talismania wrote:
actually fuck it.
if we're going to lynch third party, why not ghost? fourface claimed insane dt - why? probably because his ass wanted to mislead town. He's a survivor alright, but wins with scum. Just a thought. Also ghost has been acting weird since he's arrived.
Lynching ghost actually has a good chance of catching scum imho. As today has developed, he has been acting weirder and weirder. 4F never really convinced me he was town in any way. Ghost has played more coherently. It was actually you who convinced me 4F/ghost was improbable scum. Also, if we lynch ghost and he flips scum then we've proven Hyaach as a pretty townie roleblocker, leaving the road even clearer for an xsksc lynch tomorrow.
I am not opposed to killing ghost. My main reason for picking Hiro/SnB is because there is something fishy about their role and until we lynch one of them or the game ends we won't know what it is. I am inquisitive and not above lynching for information
Let me go reread ghost's filter, but a switch to ghost does not seem like a bad plan. At worst it'll prove that roleblocking ghost was NOT what stopped the mafia kill from happening.
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Okay, quick wrapup of ghost's play. He is clearly completely unconcerned about who is getting lynched (while he is out-of-shot). Which makes him not-town. But we knew that already. Complete toss-up between scum and 3rd party as far as I can read him, though.
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Hiro, you're taking the last bit out of context. It was in response to the plan having him roleblocked, which could very well remove his bulletproof protection.
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On June 26 2012 02:11 deconduo wrote:
I'm not changing my plan to kill xsksc, and then hyaach if he flips town. Going after third party when we have a guaranteed mafia is just a bad idea.
Why do you think ghost is 3rd party and not mafia?
What makes you think xsksksksks is scummier than Hyaach? Why can't Hyaach be a miller?
We don't have confirmed scum. We have someone who looked scummy up until very recently and then started to look townie as fuck. We have another guy who looked null leaning town until very recently and then started looking scummier. We have another guy who has claimed 3rd party and played like 3rd party/scum.
Also, Hiro brings up a good point. He did promise to play townie and if there's anything I get loud and clear from his filter, it's that he hasn't done that.
Lets get this show on the road.
##unvote
##vote ghost_90210
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Btw, the whole rigmarole for why lynching someone who is at WORST a 3rd party now holds just as true for ghost as it does for an SnB lynch. The only disadvantage is that we don't get the two-for-one information deal. However, it has a lot higher chance of actually hitting majuju's scumbuddy.
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On June 26 2012 02:18 HiroPro wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2012 02:16 talismania wrote:
roleblock does remove bulletproof, at least it did in pick your power. That's not bulletproof, that was just a veteran right?
It's academic. There are games in which bulletproof can be roleblocked and nobody knows if this game is one of them, because the mods aren't answering questions like that.
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Okay. A miller roleblocker actually makes a lot of sense atm and I feel pretty badly atm about both an xskskc and a Hyaach lynch. On the other hand, I feel we can't go wrong on a ghost lynch.
Prime thing that makes him scum: we KNOW hyaach is a roleblocker. We've been assuming scum held their KP, but what if ghost is simply a mafia goon and the roleblock STOPPED his KP. Even if that is what scum wants us to think, the WORST case scenario is that we lynch a 3rd party. Who cares? (except ghost himself)
Ghost said he'd play townie, but has not been playing townie
Roleblocking ghost had the effect of stopping mafia KP
Lets lynch him!
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EPT
