EPTthird and last newb game. I'd prefer a deadline time in the 18:00-20:00 EST range.
Newbie Mini Mafia XVI
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
third and last newb game. I'd prefer a deadline time in the 18:00-20:00 EST range. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
On June 07 2012 04:09 Nova_Terra wrote: Just to let you know, i believe you have 4 newbie games (game is open to those with 3 or less games already played in) I've played in Newb Minis XIV and XV, nothing else. That said, I'd bow out in favor of someone who hasn't played before if it gets to that. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
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s0Lstice
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for getting paid leave from work so he can play mafia | ||
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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Anyway, I'm glad to see some friendly faces, and I'm glad to have the opportunity to again hunt scum. I have one piece of advice which I hope will be helpful and also get the discussion going. Go after your reads strongly, but do not tunnel. Constantly take the temperature of the thread, consider outside input, and don't spend all your time arguing with one target. The back and forth quickly turns into OMGUS, and makes both you and your target look bad. Make your case, read the defense, and then look for that outside input. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
Tunneling is a slippery slope. While you are doing it, you can go past the point of 'within reason' and not even know it. All I'm urging is caution. A case is can quickly be ruined, the cogent points buried, by bickering and arguing with your target. And yea, everyone needs to un-shut-up. It's my sock he is using, and it's hella dirty. | ||
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s0Lstice
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People not talking is something to talk about, obviously. What do you think of my comments on tunneling? | ||
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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That said, everyone should make their best effort to do so. This is a small game, and a majority will be hard to come by if people aren't around. KtheZ, your suggestion to look for activity around vote time is correct but also obvious. Absences will be noted, and factored into reads where applicable. On to the next thing... Every game I've played in has had lurkers, and they really shit up the game. We need to decide if, in absence of a clear majority, we pursue a lurker policy lynch. This is extra important in this game, because mislynches are extra deadly when the player field is small. My opinion is that if we have no worthy cases, a policy lynch is better than risking a no-lynch no lynch. | ||
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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Lynching lurkers is still risky, but the chance of hitting scum is definitely there. As I said, the stakes are high, as every mislynch is painful. If the lurker in question flips green, then at least we have rid ourselves of a useless townie. This is why I still advocate it. People who are talking give us content to work with, and in the absence of a compelling case, we could do a lot worse than lynching a crappy townie/maybe get lucky hitting scum. That said, it's a worst case scenario. The onus is on us to smoke out the scum so we don't have to resort to the policy lynch. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
There has been some stuff said on policy. People who haven't posted yet should post their thoughts on what was discussed. I want to be done with this policy stuff sooner rather than later. Also, I want to hear what others think of Release and grush. My opinion is that Grush's comment on having nothing to talk about was weird as hell. Release has done the talking here so I won't repeat. Grush, I will be watching to see what you do when there's more content to work with. | ||
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s0Lstice
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Now I want to talk about ha236 Let's look at his post on grush and LazerMonkey. On June 09 2012 23:09 ha236 wrote: As a first time player I probably would have made the same mistake grush did (I don't know if this is his first time but w/e) and say that there is nothing to talk about on the first day, but as Release said that obviously puts us in a bad situation when no one is posting at all. Also the content of grush's posts has been pretty lackluster but again, seeing as this is a noob-game I think that's something we have to expect. This is a soft defense of grush, based on the sentiment that a first time player makes mistakes, yet you don't care enough to check if this really is his first game? How is that 'w/e' when your defense of him relies on qualifying the mistakes he is making as first time player mistakes? Then you talk about LaserMonkey.. On June 09 2012 23:09 ha236 wrote: After this discussion ended we tasted some new blood in the thread - Lazermonkey and Zen man. While not being able to get a good "read" on any of you two (you not having posted much yet) some of Lazermonkey's comments on the Release-grush discussion seemed strange to me. He does not say that it is "fine if people lurk". My interpretation of the sentances is that he does not know what to post about and then proposes the subject of why people are not posting and offers his explanation (being that the game just started, people might not be by the computer and even if they are they may be watching MLG). In this paragraph Lazermonkey is trying to make the rest of us believe that grush said something he has not, that he is "suspicious of people not posting". Grush says he "wouldn't be surprised if the two mafia are in those lurkers" and from this Lazermonkey believes him to have a town read on the rest of the posters at that time. Lastly, I like the way Lazermonkey explained his stance on lurkers (two different kinds) however I don't think you can justifiably apply the one about posting stuff with no actual content so early on in the game and I ultimately agree that grush has been changing his stance on whether it is good or not to lynch lurkers. Very loud contradiction. If Lazermonkey's comments are strange then why are you agreeing with them? Why did you defend grush if you think Lazermonkey has something there? ##FoS: ha236 | ||
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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Lazermonkey, same question. | ||
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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sharing your opinions is fine, even if that opinion is "i'm not sure on him yet." You however did a play by play of Lazermonkey....kicking it off with how you felt his posts looked strange, continued to build a sort-of case?, and then agreed with his findings. Your thoughts are a problem because they contradict themselves. I'm pretty much convinced that you are the perfect candidate for us to lynch D1. ##Vote:ha236 | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
The only thing in his filter that raises my eyebrows is the 'nothing to talk about' post. The rest is neutral mostly, because it's OMGUS tit for tat defense against Release. I want to see what he does when he doesn't spend every free minute defending himself. | ||
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s0Lstice
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I will be pushing his lynch, but I will not do so at the expense of the majority. If I get traction, good. If not, then I will wait on ha236 to insure the day 1 lynch. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
On June 10 2012 09:10 Release wrote: he's not defending himself. He writes very generic townie shit and calls it a defense. He self claims that his sarcastic response is his defense (the claim might be sarcastic, who knows what he believes is actually the truth). He provides zero analysis, discourages discussion, claims that there is little to talk about after we have done a lot of talking. He has plenty of time to defend himself. According to you, he is OMGUSing, which does not even require reading the thread, so there is a contradiction with the bold phrase. Really? Because it seems like every time I refresh the thread you have a new post going after him. You are pressuring him pretty hard. He feels the need to respond to every single post, with OMGUS or something else mostly useless. I grant this is bad play, as he should have disengaged from you a lot sooner than he did. The point is the read on him is not strong, as his filter is full of garbage. This can be a scum-tell, yes, but there is also town motivation for his behavior. As town, he is incredulous that you are pursuing him so hard...this explains the sarcasm, the snippy remarks etc. He erroneously feels his best move is to match you hit for hit, and this will help confirm him as a town read. He's been told to post something that contributes, and what he does will be good information. It will certainly be better than what we have on him now. If it's not, then hell yea let's lynch him. | ||
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s0Lstice
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We lynch to kill scum. Period. Factoring in what information our target will give to decide our lynch candidate is ludicrous. You suggesting it is scummy. People have already talked about your percentage nonsense, so I won't rehash beyond saying that it paints you in a very bad light. If you are aiming to get lynched, keep doing it. We want words, not numbers. | ||
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s0Lstice
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On June 11 2012 04:20 ha236 wrote: Your ignorance is hilarious, I've said countless times that I agreed with him on that one point but thought the rest of the post was strange. Why is it you continue to bring this up? Who are you trying to fool? Perhaps you should read what you just quoted/wrote. I said that I cannot decide anything based on that discussion because it doesn't provide enough information for me which is exactly what I've allready said. About the voting... At this my attention is on Release and solstice sseeing as they insist on allways bringing up my post on Lazermonkey, how I contradict myself (which is wrong), and instantly after this I'm #2 on the scum meter? I might be missing something here but the logic behind their decisions are to me very lacking. Also it annoys me when people are stating that others are 100% town because they stick to their opinions? This is the pinnacle of ignorance, there's an expression that goes "Don't judge a book by it's cover" which aplies nicely here. "Sticking to your guns" is what tunneling someone is all about, an informed decision is made by taking information from many sources and analyzing and compiling them to a well thought-out thesis. Ex. Having one source on the source-reference page in an essay will most definately net you an F. This isn't an essay. Often there will only be one big scum-tell post, a smoking gun if you will, off which to build the case. Your first post was mostly fluff, where you attack a player for a bad read, pick that read apart, and then agree with the read. You can get mad all you want, but it was a contradiction. That said, I don't see your one post on Lazermonkey as the only thing counting against you. We are hours from the deadline, and all you've done of note is defend grush, and accuse the people accusing you. | ||
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s0Lstice
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On June 11 2012 04:20 KtheZ wrote: I am definitely lynching to kill scum. Lynching to kill scum and factoring what information can be netted are not mutually exclusive; I was listing what information we would gain based on who we lynched. I agree that I phrased that poorly. What I meant was that given the lynch, look at what information we gain. I did not intend for the factoring in of information to be a vote-changer. I don't understand what is wrong with this "percentage nonsense". If supplemented with analysis it provides a snapshot of my current views on people, which I feel provides more information to town. However, if people think it is anti-town, I will stop. The time to talk about information gained from a lynch is after the lynch. Posting it now gives off a big 'look at me I'm contributing' vibe, while you are not actually contributing. | ||
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s0Lstice
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On June 11 2012 04:22 KtheZ wrote: EBWOP: To add to the previous statement: Although an explanation of how it is anti-town would be appreciated. Using percentages leaves you an out. If you say you are 50% on a person and then vote for them, after the fact, you can say 'well I did say that there was a 50% chance that this person is not scum.' If you want to lynch someone, say so. If you don't want to lynch a person, say that. If you are unsure etc. etc. Using words to record your opinions leaves a more solid trail to which you can be held accountable. | ||
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s0Lstice
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make sure your votes are bolded, they don't count otherwise | ||
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s0Lstice
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So far your filter has a suspicion of grush, and an odd analysis post of all of our stances on him. | ||
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s0Lstice
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On June 11 2012 05:29 Vivax wrote: Here's an inofficial vote count somewhat including the order. grush: ha236: s0lstice, Release The_Zen_Man: Lazermonkey grush57: KTheZ s0lstice: Release: ha236 Guys, we're at close danger of a no-lynch. I'm not very satisfied with ha236 as option cause I find his first posts regarding Lazermonkey and Release to be true, but on the other hand he didn't make a single case except for OMGUS ones now in the end and instead only spent time defending grush and himself. It was a pretty bad day 1 imo, and it can get even worse if we will have to further lurk in the dark, you'll have my vote on ha236 for the sake of the lynch, but be aware of the fact that I'll gladly switch it for any other majority. ##vote ha236 @ s0lstice odd analysis? To me town play seems to be messed up atm and you should actually thank me for getting a bit of transparency in here. Every single and good player would make such a summary in a case before going on and accusing single persons. I doubt one would want to play with a narrow sight. Yea, it is odd. If I want to know what someone thinks of grush, I'll go look at their filter. Your post was a needless summarization. Now you just posted a vote count. This is like textbook 'scum trying to look useful' fodder. I've seen your town play, and this doesn't look anything like it. Yea, it got you lynched last game, so you may be trying to change it up, but what you've changed to is not an improvement as of yet. Lazermonkey, I'm gonna comment on your Zen_Man case in a bit. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
He is taking a firm stance on grush by voting for him, and has been consistent with his views on him as I see it. He does not provide any reasoning behind his suspicions, true. He really should have. That said, the reasons for grush's scummyness have been discussed quite a lot, and agreeing with them (parroting/bandwagoning) by itself is not dead red scummy. If he agrees, he agrees. As far as his exaggerations, I feel this is under the OMGUS umbrella as well. The bottom line is I see fledgling efforts to hunt scum, and I want to see more. As of right now, he wouldn't draw my vote. | ||
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s0Lstice
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Something that has been bugging me about ha236 is that he has been constant in his defense of Grush, he even doubled down. I find it difficult to believe that a scum ha236 would attract attention by tying himself to one of the most controversial people in the thread. He could have just as easily went after a grush57 lynch, it would have been easy. Very few other people have agreed with me on him as well. I think it would be prudent to go elsewhere. ## Unvote | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
I feel like this is the only majority we have a good shot at getting. I went through Zen_Man's filter again in light of Vivax' post...I definitely see the parroting, bandwagoning, and vote on Grush without explanation, as I said before. These could be scum tells, but I'm still not totally convinced. I wanted to see more, but I don't think that luxury exists at present. What I'm certain of is I want a day 1 lynch, and I don't think I was right on ha236. | ||
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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 I'll be sharing something I've been working on closer to the start of day 2, in case I'm deaded shortly after. | ||
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s0Lstice
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1) His filter has a lot of garbage. He has 6 posts about nothing but policy. These lead in to 3 posts where he is basically directing traffic. He posts percentages for scum reads, sometimes accompanied with reasoning (grush), other times without reasoning (ha236). Then there is this eye-sore: + Show Spoiler + On June 11 2012 03:51 KtheZ wrote: So now that it is time to decide who to lynch, we should think about whose lynch will provide the most information. The current FoS/Lynch votes have been directed to: grush<---- Release(voted), me ha<------- s0lstice The_zen_man<-------- Lazermonkey(FoS) Lazermonkey<---------- The_Zen_man(FoS) Or something like this. To me, the most probable first day lynch will be grush or ha. (zen man and lazermonkey have been trading blows with one another, but we havent paid attention to that all that much) What info will lynching grush provide us? grush's stance toward: ha: Thinks he is mafia, but was soft defended by ha. Release: reads town on release, was the individual to put grush into spotlight KtheZ: Suspicious because he didn't notice how ha is "obviously" mafia s0Lstice: He seems positively inclined toward s0Lstice Vivax: Thinks he is mafia, because he was lurker (does position change now that hes posting?) Note:No noted opinions on others What info will lynching ha provide us? grush:soft defended by ha KtheZ: unconvinced ha is mafia s0Lstice: FoSed/Voted ha ShiaoPi: Advocated pushing ha for more info Note: I haven't seen many of ha's own opinions on others, just him defending hiimself. No noted opinions on others. ShiaoPi, you should post some more! I'm curious to hear your position on things! I've talked about this post some already. It's scummy as hell. Here we are bearing down on lynch time, and here he uses all these words to talk about stuff that doesn't matter in the slightest until after we see the flip. I'll say it again, this post screams 'look at me I'm being useful!' That's the common theme to be grasped here; there is a whole lot of non-contributing contributions in his filter. By itself it could just be bad town play, but keep it in mind as we move forward. 2) Scumhunting. Let's look and see how he has been pursuing the win condition. His strongest read is against grush57, who is far and away the easiest person to make a token case on for scum. A lot of people were on his ass for his play, and it was very easy to just blend in here. I want to look specifically at KtheZ's suspicions on grush: + Show Spoiler + On June 10 2012 14:19 KtheZ wrote: Grush: His first post, which implied encouragement of less discussion day 1, definitely struck me as something a scum might do. In the ensuing discussion he started OMGUS-ing a little, and met release's scathing cross-examination with responses of his own. I applaud release for FoSing Grush, not because grush may be scum, but because he managed to squeeze out precious information on this first day. This new debate over ha was only possible because release decided to talk. Anyway, after looking over grush's responses and his final "okay im done with this shit" post, he does seem slightly scummy. Considering the lack of useful information he has provided within the span of 30-40ish posts, and my feel over reading his posts, I would place the ballpark of him being scum being around 44-55% (Which is much higher than the average person, 11%) First thing I notice is the rambling lack of focus. He play-by-plays and takes the time to compliment Release. The important thing to notice however is his stance. He goes from 'this is a definite scum tell' to 'slighty scummy' to '44-55%' chance of a scum flip. At the end of that sequence do you really have any idea what his stance is? How does slightly scummy translate to a coin-flip scum possibility? Here's more: + Show Spoiler + On June 11 2012 03:35 KtheZ wrote: As for Grush: I think this is the first time you have finally made an accusation up front, that ha is obviously mafia. It strikes me as awkward that you would attack someone who soft defended you. Enough about you, lets talk about me! Extremely soft pressure. The point is poor to boot....attacking someone who has soft defended you means basically nothing. You go after your reads regardless of what their opinion of you is. Following this he votes, and his vote stays put throughout the mislynch of Zen_Man. Now let's look at his opinions on another prominent case that was going on: ha236. On June 10 2012 16:23 KtheZ wrote: ha: I've looked through his posts and, besides a soft defense of grush, he doesn't appear that scummy to me. Personal risk analysis: chance ha is mafia: 22-25% chance ha is mafia given grush flips:44-55% All of these percentages are based on "as of now" On June 11 2012 06:24 KtheZ wrote: Although I am not convinced ha is scum, if it comes down to a no-lynch I will switch my vote to ha. I have read his posts and s0Lstice/Release's arguments and have concluded that he is a reasonable second to grush. Almost no explanation for his read. He dances around this issue...he doesn't think ha is scummy, but will vote for him to ensure the lynch. Ok, that's fine. He doesn't stop there though. He justifies a vote for ha for an entirely different, opposing reason, by saying my and Release's arguments have swayed him enough for ha to be considered a 'reasonable second to grush.' I have no idea what his actual opinion is after this. Is he voting on one of his town-reads to ensure a lynch, or did the arguments sway him? The only other thing of note is the bandwagon on The_Zen_Man. But again he doesn't come down hard on the issue, it leaves him 'suspicious enough to at least FoS him.' The bottom-line is KtheZ has taken the safe route in all of his actions so far. His firmest stance is on grush57, and as I've shown, it really isn't all that firm. He is playing it safe because he doesn't want anything to bite him in the ass later. He doesn't particularly care for hunting scum because he IS scum. 3) One last point, but it's a good one. I want to point out how he behaved following Zen_Man's flip: On June 11 2012 09:36 KtheZ wrote: Geeze I leave for a while and somehow we have managed to bandwagon crazily within the span of 30 minutes. What the hell? What happened to the original game plan of lynching ha? There, that post has some fire in it. Notice how out of place it is within the rest of his filter...it just doesn't match. Nowhere else does he really show any venom. This mismatch is a scum-tell. Scum like to come in after a mislynch and upbraid people, they feel it makes them look town. I'll even cite Ver's newbie guide, have a look: On August 26 2010 13:09 Ver wrote: --snipped It's a common mafia tactic to arrive just after a lynch is final (in this case, 24 minutes later) and start berating everyone and putting suspicion on those who were responsible. Keep in mind that doing so absolves them of any responsibility (they weren't 'around' ). The case he was talking about was similar to this one. A mild mannered politician like player suddenly showing up after a mislynch and being uncommonly firm, making everyone else feel guilty. Summary: -Lots of filler and pseudo-contributions in KtheZ's filter -Politician like, inconsistant, scum-hunting. Top scumread is the easiest case in the game -Sudden change in persona following the mislynch I feel pretty good about this read. Release, I know you are after ha236, but please consider what I said. That goes for everyone else too, let me know what you think. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
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s0Lstice
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 gg all, read my last post. good luck to the townies  | ||
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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I'm pretty pumped town won this game. I want to congratulate the townies and say gg to everyone. I was doing backflips with all the claims and counter-claims. KtheZ's gambit was certainly a ballsy move...grush57 too. KtheZ, can you walk me through your reasoning with that claim? Also, can we get the mafia QT please? | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
Also Vivax, your meta as scum was noticeably different. I was debating on who to build a case on (between you and KtheZ) before the end of night 1...I ended up going with KtheZ because I figured that in a vacuum he would have a harder time sloughing it off. Also, your strong tone in your defenses planted just enough doubt in my mind. It's definitely an asset you have. The way you write makes it easy to confirm you when you are town, and difficult to doubt you when you're scum. If you had posted more, I'm not sure I would have suspected you at all. Your additions to the case on Zen_Man was instrumental in my derp fest at the end of day1. I read his filter, read him as town, then read your shit again and then it was all a blur past that. All in all you guys did very well, especially considering you were against a DT who nailed a scum check on night 1. I look forward to more games with both of you. | ||
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s0Lstice
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On June 16 2012 10:11 Release wrote: Work? That;s no work at all. A real mafia QT goes like this: - "I'm bussing you on day 3" - "ok" If you are ever scum in a game that I'm not in, you'd better PM me to get the hell into /obs. | ||
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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On June 16 2012 20:06 Lazermonkey wrote: In the end I kinda flipped a coin to decide which of theese three I would check : ). Next-level three-sided coin engage! | ||
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s0Lstice
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