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I think everyone here trying to come up with a theory explaining how blazinghand is mafia needs to slow the hell down and think for a bit. Maybe walk away and reread the thread. The only way I could see him claiming like that is from an SK perspective, but his reaction to Pandain's claim seems very genuine.
In every game I've played/read here on TL, the simplest explanation has been the correct one 99% of the time. How about we start by lynching the most scummy people rather than trying to WIFOM about whether blazinghand would try and shoot his own teammates.
@blazinghand: I agree that furer is looking like a very good lynch target for today. I agree completely that if he is town, he's perfect for scum to keep alive. I know I don't want him around at LYLO.
That being said, I think it'd still be in our best interest to discuss other players as well in the case that furer has just straight up forgotten about this game and doesn't show up for the next day and a half. Let's not waste that time.
Which brings me to this:
I really feel like people are giving Hyaach too much leeway here and am filling a ton of resistance to his lynch. The guy has been more active than furer and has provided less content. We have nothing in the thread to read him by. It seems as though he's just barely trying to skirt our radars while saying as little as possible. He needs to be lynched.
##Vote Hyaach
@VE: I apologize, I have not had a chance to look over Katina's filter since you requested that of me this morning. I will do that as soon as I get home tonight, it's been a very long day at work trying to get caught up for next week.
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On the BH thing, first I believe his claim for a couple of reasons, one is that I simply had a town read on him going into the twilight phase, I was pretty sure that he was town and the claim made sense from how he had been posting. Second is that I just don't think if he were scum he would try to pull this. We'd specifically been discussing how vig claims work and multiple people pointed out that a scum vig claim doesn't really make sense as it really won't clear you when there's only one night kill, I don't think that right after that BH would try that very trick.
Now working from the assumption that his claim is true we have a few possibilities and one thing we know is that he was RBed somehow. First there's the possibility that scum RBed him, shot someone else, and were blocked. That seems plausible though it requires both the scum RBer and the town blue that blocked scum (med/rb/jk) to have gotten it right, it's possible but not most likely in my opinion. A town RBer or JK could have blocked him and the scum shot be blocked separately, also possible (JK more likely) but unlikely for the same reason. The scenario that makes the most sense in my mind is he got JKed blocking his shot AND scum shot BH which got blocked the same way, it only requires for one blue to make their hit and we don't need to assume the existence of more than one other blue than BH.
Now getting to that conclusion doesn't really give us much help with reads, there's no way any of those possibilities could be linked to furer so this doesn't actually indicate anything about his alignment any more than before the shot went through. The only new information we have is that there exists a RBer of some sort and given my thoughts it's probably a JK.
With all of that said I do agree with BH taking the shot at furer and am annoyed that we couldn't get rid of him with a vig, given that he hasnt' posted in over 3 days I think we need to get rid of him and I hate assuming someone will be modkilled as if they're scum they have an annoying tendency of slipping in at the end to meet the activity requirement. So ##Vote: Furer If he does show back up with a LOT of content then I would also be quite fine with a Hyaach lynch. Beyond that I need to look at kat's filter, I still have suspicions about VE, and there are one or two people who are posting who I'm unsure of but would like to reread before posting anything.
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Also relevant: If someone is set to get lynched and to get modkilled will the modkill go through first and the person with the second highest votes get lynched, or will the first person just get lynched?
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Ive only skimp the first post and these last post. Its mainly about rb and claim. If it meant anything i would like to point iut i was rbed too.
Btw i said i will give read i ard 5 hour. Why so eagar to drive attention away from the thread? U could always do it when i didnt fullfill my claim
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Notes on Katina:
- Noticed the same thing I did about blazinghand's 'off' play. Now that I think about this more, it lines up with his vig claim - being a well known player, it makes sense to try and survive until he could get his shot off.
- Puts thoughts down in the thread in a clear, concise manner. Offers thoughts on multiple players without needing to be urged to do so.
- Isn't afraid to push the stronger players when they're not under pressure (blazinghand, VE)
I don't agree with everything Katina's saying, especially since the case on VE essentially boils down to "VE is being VE so he's scum". But I don't see anything particularly scummy in her posting and I do see some things which I don't think scum would be doing (i.e. pushing VE and blazinghand).
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Also, I'll be here for a little while going over the thread so if you have any questions feel free to ask.
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So just gave the thread a reread/skim through certain parts.
Sticking with my plan of not wasting an entire day cycle, assuming furer doesn't even come back, I'd like to hear some opinions on ghost_403.
Specifically from Artanis, zelblade and Hyaach. What are your guys' stances on him? Hyaach, I'm still waiting for some of your other thoughts, if you wouldn't mind adding this to the list.
Please note though that I am not suggesting ghost as a lynch candidate for today. The last thing I want to do is provide too many candidates for scum to choose from on where to put their vote and kill our vote analysis.
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
Hm, having read Navi's thoughts on it, I think the simplest answer is probably the best: I got JKed by a town JK and shot by the mafia. It's funny though cause it means a blue perceived me as a threat to town even though I was being shot.
Although I'm down to lynch Furer today and will need some serious swaying not to lynch him, I don't want to just throw away 48 hours. Here are people who I'm currently hating on (besides Furer):
Hyaach
Shraft
Both of you have raised my eternal ire. Beware, for the consequences of my eternal ire are dire.
Seriously though are you guys playing or what
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On June 07 2012 03:36 Snarfs wrote:snip Specifically, I believe Hyaach is scum: Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 22:45 Hyaach wrote:
Late to the party but did no one thought that Pand was fishing for information when he asked Masons to claim?
He could very likely be a SK as well but either way his scum. This looks very much like scum trying to justify a reason for hopping on a bus. Pandain wasn't "fishing" for information when he asked masons to claim, he was straight up asking masons to claim. Also, saying he could very likely be an SK as well seems to be searching for an excuse for Pandain not to be scum. Hyaach seems to know whether Pandain is scum or town and is making up reasons to either bandwagon or bus him. His voting seems very forced and I can only justify it from a scum perspective. ##Vote HyaachNow, that being said, I believe that no lynches more often than not favour scum and I know it's late to bring up a new target, so if noone else sees what I do here, I'd be willing to switch to an alternative to ensure we get information from our day 1 lynch.
I'm gonna straight up answer you cases about me since i find that you are tunnelling me for remaining neutral on day one. Read my meta, i'm always neutral on day one. I have the same post ratio to zelblade and furp but you are willing to give them the benefit of the doubt but not me.
No one knew if mason was in the game. Not then not now too. So Pandain directly asking them to claim is indeed fishing for mason. He wants to know if there is or isnt and not putting that as subtle as possible is the best way to not draw attention as scum
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Hm. Strange. No one died.
Today I'd like to lynch either zelblade, Hyaach or furerkip. Between the three of them I'm not really sure who is the most suspect. I'm going to come back in a little while with my thoughts after reading through all their filters.
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If anyone read, I got RB last night.
2 reason. I've been read as scum and was thought I would be doing the kill last night. Are you for real?
Mafia RBed me to frame me which means people who were FoS-ing me are highly suspicious.
On June 06 2012 11:23 Blazinghand wrote:
Alright, if we believe Pandain's claim, then why don't we follow up with my course of action: We lynch MrZ (or maybe Navi if he seems scummier). If MrZ flips town, sure, shoot me. But I think he's gonna flip scum.
Just this line in case people really thought of giving BH the credit of pushing the fake vig claim by Pandain.
On June 06 2012 11:55 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 01:30 Pandain wrote:I think Mr. Zentor is very suspicious, and should be looked at instead. He's offered very weak arguments, suggesting he does not want to force his opinion onto the town. He's offered vague statements that do not really put himself out there("a bit rash", "would probably", "I think, but we should") which do not prove him being mafia but merely cause me to be watchful. I am also somewhat suspicious of Navillus, but it is more of a general feeling than specific evidence. "MrZ and Navi are suspicious. MrZ because of the way he posts" Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 11:17 Pandain wrote:I honestly don't care about Zentor or navillus. They aren't posting enough to gauge an accurate read. I do care about you though. And even if you don't get lynched, I will shoot you. + Show Spoiler +Realize I accidently claimed blue, and my role isn't important enough to justify having medic protection I'm vigilante. "MrZ hasn't posted enough for me to care about" ???? contradiction?
Then this line directly contradicts himself again. Seems like his using everything Pandain said to make an easy case where Pandain looks scummy to lynch him off.
On June 07 2012 07:55 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 06:21 VisceraEyes wrote:
I mean, I understand what you're saying, I do...but I'm trying to give BH the benefit of the doubt where all of that is concerned. I appreciate that you're trying to be helpful, but don't give me the benefit of the doubt. I mean, I personally like it when people agree with me, but giving people the benefit of the doubt is dangerous. Don't give anyone the benefit of the doubt-- don't ever impair your scumhunting. If you feel there's something wrong with someone's play, either make note of it and address your read accordingly or air it with the town- we'll be better off for it.
This post is actually nothing but restating that fact. Never blindly trust everyone but wait, what's the message underneath it, it makes towns want to trust him because of the fact that his is "transparent" with his play.
Look through his cases. it is on the easiest targets. the lurkers or people who most people agree are suspicious. that's not very telling of his alignment.
I finds his day one post not deserving of a JK from town. Can anyone find any reason his a better RB target then others?
Speaking of game mechanic and night action. Zelblade came back and ask another string of question about the night actions. Making himself seem useful but not contributing at the same time.
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On June 08 2012 19:08 Hyaach wrote:
I finds his day one post not deserving of a JK from town. Can anyone find any reason his a better RB target then others?
Someone must have seen my crumb-- that seems fairly obvious to me. Also, the fact that both you and I were RBed means that in all likelihood there is both a scum RB and a town JK in this game.
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On June 08 2012 19:17 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2012 19:08 Hyaach wrote:
I finds his day one post not deserving of a JK from town. Can anyone find any reason his a better RB target then others?
Someone must have seen my crumb-- that seems fairly obvious to me. Also, the fact that both you and I were RBed means that in all likelihood there is both a scum RB and a town JK in this game.
Oh, alternatively, I was RBed by a JK and you were RBed by an RB, and the JK RBed me because he thought I was gonna get shot OR cause he thought I was scum. The "two RBs" theories are back in play here.
So in any case, now that you're in the thread, we got any cases or just speculation? Cause I can speculate all day with you and it won't turn into a case without you making one. Many people have found your play lacking, and this isn't much of an improvement.
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But why would anyone want to JK furp?
His was the most useless out of lurkers and on the way to modkill.
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On June 08 2012 19:20 Hyaach wrote:
But why would anyone want to JK furp?
His was the most useless out of lurkers and on the way to modkill.
?? You are aware of how a JK functions, right? A JK both saves AND roleblocks. I'm suggesting that *I* was JKed, thereby preventing my shot from firing.
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no i want other's opinion on why would anyone RB you? or JK furp and why would anyone RB me or JK me.
1)It would be a JK on you and RB on me and 1 more RB because I know I cannot kill at night and mafia did not kill anyone.
2)RB on you and RB on me and 1 more JK on another target whom is the mafia.
3)JK on fur as you suggest and RB on me but i highly doubt it.
or any other scenerio people can come up with.
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and how do you explain mafia not killing anyone? One more RB in the mix? if so, why not claim and lynch the mafia?
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
JK is also usable as an RB, which would have been a good reason.
But what you're leaving out is that all this I speculated before you claimed getting RBed last night. Any theory of Fur getting JKed (in an attempt, perhaps, to stop a nightkill or scum PR) goes out the window because I just don't see there being 3 roleblocking roles in this game.
Here's what seems to be the only possibility now:
I was JKed, and mafia shot me overnight.
You were RBed.
Assuming your claim of RB is true.
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On June 08 2012 19:25 Hyaach wrote:
and how do you explain mafia not killing anyone? One more RB in the mix? if so, why not claim and lynch the mafia?
Look, before you claimed RB, the simplest solution was that I got JKed and the mafia shot me. Now it seems likely that you got RBed.
I can't imagine why on earth scum would RB you. Town definitely doesn't have 2 JKs and a vigi, and even a JK, a vigi, and a town RB seem pretty unlikely.
Both of our claims being true seems pretty unlikely, actually. Unless someone can come up with a better explanation, I think you're faking your RB claim to undermine me.
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Hyaach's posting is really messy and, it seems, a bit confused. There's not really much to analyze.
Only thing that stuck out to me when I read his filter was this:
On June 05 2012 11:15 Hyaach wrote:
I would let VE live for a day unless something really scummy comes out from his play.
it takes huge balls on claim this early, be it fake/real and its not a fool proof plan imo mafia or town.
Besides, from his claim, i would put all his analysis on a magnifying glass to be dismembered and examined piece by piece.
which seems like an easy thing to say to appear pro town without having to do much. (He is not promising analysis, just saying that he will examine VE's posts, which means that he doesn't have to make any follow-up on this statement.) Either way, he has promised analysis and I'm waiting eagerly.
furerkip seems like a bad Epicmafia townie to me. He plays exactly like the townies over there, speaking about "having mislynches", calling VT's "blues", saying that scumslips = scummy play, and speaking about "three way lynches" (a situation much more common in Epicmafia games than in forum mafia). He could maybe be Mafia, but I think that his aggressive posting is quite out of place for a first time (forum) Mafia player.
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EPT
