EPTAll I can say for myself is that I was pretty confident about my read on you being town. One could see the effort and you also did a lot of structuring in your posts. I just wish I had made it more clear that I really thought Mordanis was scum because of his whole play on D1 (again, he was riding a dead horse attacking me because of one post timing, emotional fluff etc.), and not only because I felt that the Mordanis-Release thing looked scummy to me. This was my biggest mistake I suppose.
Newbie Mini XIV - Page 24
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
hegeo
Germany194 Posts
All I can say for myself is that I was pretty confident about my read on you being town. One could see the effort and you also did a lot of structuring in your posts. I just wish I had made it more clear that I really thought Mordanis was scum because of his whole play on D1 (again, he was riding a dead horse attacking me because of one post timing, emotional fluff etc.), and not only because I felt that the Mordanis-Release thing looked scummy to me. This was my biggest mistake I suppose. | ||
|
O.Golden_ne
Australia204 Posts
On May 30 2012 11:55 slOosh wrote: I toyed with the idea of writing an analysis of this game but I chickened out because I lack confidence in my skills. should do it anyway mang, good place to start with a newbie game!  im sure the more active guys would love to hear an analysis of it, i know i would. | ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
My reading of your big post just prior to death was very much affected because I was trying to consider the argument as a package deal. It became difficult to separate Mordanis from Release...I mistakenly cleared Mordanis because I was so sure Release was town. You made some good points about Mordanis; coupled with what he posted just before and after your death, it was definitely enough to pursue. The biggest moment for me was this: On May 24 2012 08:39 Mordanis wrote: I only read a little bit..... And I just explained why. Anyways I'm off to work. Here's hoping for some red!! Not sure how I let myself forget this. The way you doggedly pursued the case even when your death was assured (only a townie would do this) made Mordanis 'hope for red' extremely suspect. I think it was because sciberbia said that it was weird I was so sure you were town at that point, but I really should have trusted my logic and stayed on the trail you blazed. | ||
|
hegeo
Germany194 Posts
My reading of your big post just prior to death was very much affected because I was trying to consider the argument as a package deal. It became difficult to separate Mordanis from Release... Well, that was also why I started the shit in the beginning (although I don't really think I poked too aggressively). When I decided to call people out, I didn't really feel that we as town were trying to force errors or to point out things we wondered about (Sciberbia pretty much said in his later posts about Mordanis that he wondered about some of the things too). After getting voted by Release/Mordanis, my train of thought was: + Show Spoiler + 1. You surely hit scum (either Mordanis or Mordanis/Release). You will die early (<=N1) since they were very aggressive towards you, but nobody else really questioned them in thread (I especially asked people for their read on me and/or Mordanis, for me it seemed like they believed him more). 2. When you die without making your case, your dead is surely in vain. 3. I was like 70%/30% sure my dead would come D1, with me trying to argue against Mordanis and Release (even though Release was town, he made VERY clear that he wanted to see me dead no matter what, others considered voting for me too) I might have shifted that to 50/50, still Mufaa wasn't there, so I wasn't sure (I also wasn't sure wether other blue roles were there, like a jailkeeper or whatever, so I didn't want to lynch ShiaoPi. Me dying in N1 for sure had also not allowed me to protect anybody). 4. While defending myself I couldn't have worked through the posts/filters, so 50% me dead and no information. Without trying to defend: 70% dead, but the best read I could give at that point in time. So I decided for the latter. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36158 Posts
To s0lstice: this is why you consider people on their own. One of the biggest mistakes newbie towns make is forever connecting people. You find ONE scum and then once they have flipped, THEN you can look back at how people relate to them. | ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
That aside, I'm amazed at how small the margin of error was in this game. That's part of the territory for mini set-ups though I suppose. Our day 1 medic mislynch meant we HAD to get day 2 right, otherwise we end up at day 3 with 3 townies (1 inactive) and 2 scum. This is what happened obviously...I chuckle when I think that Milton and Mordanis could have scum-claimed on day 3 and still wouldn't have been lynched. | ||
|
hegeo
Germany194 Posts
Thanks for the input. Is claiming just a means to help town after I flip in case scum counter-claims? Or do you think that I could have saved myself by doing so? | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36158 Posts
On May 23 2012 07:01 Mordanis wrote: Perhaps I am biased, but in my last game I read one player as an illogical townie, and he turned out to be mafia. This was embarrasing, but I read part of the scum QT, and all of the scum laughed at me for that read. Admittedly, he isn't the perfect case for scum, but my pride is seeking revenge for the scum disguised as illogical townie. Also, the case against Milton is pretty weak (even though he can't match what malt can do to justify God's ways to man). Solstice seems inactive, but I don't think there's been a very solid case on him. I can't even think of anyone else who has a group of people actively being suspicious of. Honestly, they're all sort of decent candidates for a D1 lynch, but I don't see nearly as much of an argument for the others as for Hegeo. Also, I think that we should stop defending for other people. This may go back to my being burned by protecting mafia, but I think it will be best for everyone to post their own thoughts on matters rather than explicitly rebuting an accusation. Wishy washy post, soft defends Milton, before saying people should not defend other people and speak for themselves On May 24 2012 01:48 Mordanis wrote: There's one thing I have to say: We have about 8 hours till the deadline, and we have 4 votes in for players besides Milton. I'm not entirely confident in our ability to switch to a new player in this time. And if a few people try, and mufaa doesn't vote, we'll have a really hard time getting to lynch anybody at all. Just to make sure there is no confusion, I'm fine with a lynch for Milton, but I'm afraid we won't be able to lynch anyone if a few people go all out to try to lynch him. Especially this post rang alarm bells for me. Saying he's happy to lynch Milton, but trying to find any bad reason not to do so. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36158 Posts
On May 30 2012 22:59 hegeo wrote: @Marv Thanks for the input. Is claiming just a means to help town after I flip in case scum counter-claims? Or do you think that I could have saved myself by doing so? You could likely have saved yourself and that's why you should do so. If you claim blue it is very risky to lynch you, and the case on you wasn't that strong. If it looks likely you're getting lynched, claim! In this case it would have led to lynching scum instead of you. Edit: and don't claim 5 mins before deadline or something, make it several hours before deadline so people can process the information. | ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
| ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36158 Posts
| ||
|
sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Is it really best not to lynch people who roleclaim in this setup? If hegeo had claimed medic and we decided not to lynch him for that reason, wouldn't milton have just claimed jailkeeper or DT or something, and been able to prevent his lynch as well? | ||
|
sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I read you as town most of the game. I just didn't find your tunneling of shiaopi very helpful because I didn't think your case was that strong, and it interfered with our discussion of milton/hegeo. The only thing I found suspicious was your reaction to hegeo's post. I was a lot more paranoid than you were. I thought "maybe hegeo deliberately waited until the last minute, and then made a huge post where he implies he will flip town, in an attempt to get us to panic and not lynch him." Obviously I was wrong. My bad on that one. If we had all swapped to milton in those last 5 minutes, it would have likely won us the game. | ||
|
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
On May 31 2012 01:59 sciberbia wrote: @marvellosity Is it really best not to lynch people who roleclaim in this setup? If hegeo had claimed medic and we decided not to lynch him for that reason, wouldn't milton have just claimed jailkeeper or DT or something, and been able to prevent his lynch as well? It's best to look at the claim and see if it makes sense. If it doesn't make sense, then you lynch it. If it does, then you lynch the next target. You shouldn't blindly believe claims as they happen, but you shouldn't assume they're all a lie either. Like everything else in this game, you have to analyze it and see if it makes sense. | ||
|
hegeo
Germany194 Posts
Lynching Milton would have pretty surely won us the game, but it was mostly my non-reactiveness in the hours before the lynch that made lynching me the more attractive option. BTW I think you did a good job on D1, I would have protected you N1 since my town-read on you was my strongest  I sincerely also didn't know what else to do the hours before lynch to defend myself but to refer to my posts, since I felt I had addressed (more or less) every point Mordanis made up against me, and pretty much answered Releases' heated posts. ShiaoPi seemed to be OK with it, and you even were kind of defending me before. BTW I didn't do it before so: Thanks to VE and Marv for hosting this game! | ||
|
hegeo
Germany194 Posts
On May 31 2012 02:13 VisceraEyes wrote: It's best to look at the claim and see if it makes sense. If it doesn't make sense, then you lynch it. If it does, then you lynch the next target. You shouldn't blindly believe claims as they happen, but you shouldn't assume they're all a lie either. Like everything else in this game, you have to analyze it and see if it makes sense. VE, would you have believed me if I claimed in that situation? I just felt I had two of the most active and "established" players 100% against me, and no reaction to my questions about Mordanis' behaviour against me from the other players. And even if I didn't get lynched, mafia would have surely killed me N1. But you're right of course, we could have lynched mafia D1. Still, some players were against ShiaoPi so with Mordanis and Milton switching to him, we would perhaps have lynched him not me. But this is maybe too much of hypothetical thinking by me here. | ||
|
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
Also account for this: scum are going to FAKE CLAIM to avoid dying - so if you don't claim before you die, then scum are at a strategic advantage in addition to an information advantage...because they're willing to do what it takes to live. | ||
|
Mordanis
United States893 Posts
On May 30 2012 23:01 marvellosity wrote: You're right, the margins are small. I felt a Milton lynch was a definite possibility at some points, it just drifted away from it. If you managed to lynch him, a couple of posts like these could raise suspicions: Wishy washy post, soft defends Milton, before saying people should not defend other people and speak for themselves Especially this post rang alarm bells for me. Saying he's happy to lynch Milton, but trying to find any bad reason not to do so. I admit that these would have been very scummy if Milton had been lynched, but I didn't think I could have won anyways in a 6 vs. 1. I was very close to PMing VE that I would concede if Milton was lynched. They were a last ditch effort to take some attention away from the case on Milton. | ||
|
slOosh
3291 Posts
slOosh's attempt at post game analysis Encouraged to do so by Golden, here are my thoughts of Newbie Mini XIV. I only started playing several months ago, so I'm not that much ahead of you guys in terms of experience, so take what I say with a grain of salt, or better yet ask questions so we can discuss and hopefully the more experienced players can chime in their opinions. [Warning: I write this analysis pretty much free thought style so popping up the thread along side might be helpful. Or confusing :p] Pregame Thoughts From the pre-game deadline discussion, its evident that most of the players are pretty excited to play, and most of them are new at the game (or at least playing on a forum). Additionally, the setup is 9 players, with 7 town 2 scum. No doubt that scum will play to keep both alive if possible and only bus (a term somewhat referring to sacrificing a teammate as crisis management) when really pushed to, and aside from that try to disguise their relationship within the thread. So the general heuristics I'm applying in this game are - This is a newbie game. I'm making more leeway in terms of logic and sense due to the lack of experience, but people still tend to make sense within their personal logic. That is, even though a townie may be illogical, they are consistent in their "logic". Therefore I'm more inclined to look at contradictions and inconsistencies. - People are excited to play. Any hesitations / quietness / inactivity I would lean as a blue role or scum (who both want to lay low). - Direction of thread. Knowing that 2 scum are tied, if one comes under fire it is likely that scum team deal with it either by defending or deflecting / distracting by bringing up something else. These are heueristics that help find scum, not hard rules (which is where I made the mistake of thinking that Shiaopi was scum on the third point of deflecting discussion from Miltonkram. but more on that later). D1 The first post that caught my eye was by Miltonkram: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14788010 He points out people who haven't posted yet doesn't contribute anything himself. Somewhat a contradiction, so he is on my to-watch list. His next post hits a red flag for me - he calls sciberbia's post scummy, yet doesn't seem to consider sciberbia himself as scummy - just the post. Townies are looking for scum by looking for scummy posts, but Milton says 'that's scummy (but you are town) so stop it'. Something else that garnered my attention was ShiaoPi's attention to Mufaa (the lurker). In hindsight it is understandable that he would be concerned as in his previous game town was destroyed by lurkers. It is a legitamate concern. However, while it is good to keep them in mind, because its only 1 player I found that Mufaa served as an unnecessary distraction to town. 8 players (thus at least 1 scum) were actively posting, and thus it would probably have been better to leave him alone till D2 to see if he would get replaced. I noticed several times the discussion was going great and people got sidetracked by Mufaa. Again - lurkers (especially the not posting anything kind) are good to keep in mind but bad to focus upon. I really liked the general thread atmosphere early D1. People were active and consolidating their thoughts into compact posts, which eases reading and allows more information transfer which is great for town. Which brings me to Mordanis' post which I missed my first read because I thought it was ShiaoPi was 2nd scum by association, which just goes to show finding mafia by association is dangerous and better used when people actually flip mafia. Anyways, here is the post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14794411 "regressed to a community of trust", "cultivate a healthy distrust", "we are now too trusting". Maybe this is hindsight talking, but this isn't really a town concern, but a scum one. First, people aren't totally trusting each other, it is clear that people are legitamately seeking scum and suspecting each other. People are being polite and mannered sure, but that is great for keeping the thread organized and clear. I think this is a put-on-watch-list post. As for spoilers, I don't recommend using them except for maybe hiding huge quotes that you are responding to. In the very least your analysis shouldn't be spoilered, because you want people to read it. Presentation is very important as it is allows your thoughts to be properly known to others. It's ideal if people open each spoiler and indiscriminately devote time to understanding each post but people are lazy / busy / distracted, and likely to scroll over spoilers. And if you feel like your post is cluttered and bulky without use of spoilers, that is probably an indication that there is excess material that needs not be there - try to slim it down to the thoughts / ideas you really want conveyed, and it will probably do the trick. As D1 comes to a close, it is good that people are starting to consolidate posts. It is not good however, that Miltonkram was freed from the accountability of voting because people told where to vote, and didn't find it weird when he said something like 'I don't like it but I'll do it because you told me to' which shifts all blame on any mislynches onto townies. Not good. Should be a red flag - you vote for people you think is scum and convince people. N1 hegeo flips town doctor. Unfortunate but not a game-ender. Blues are nice to have but should not be crutches. Not that behind. Now people take hegeo's post as the next string to follow, which I think is a mistake because while it is true that his analysis was written with good intentions, it doesn't mean its infallible. (Hegeo I think you jumped the gun, as did I, by trying to find both scum at once. It's hard to predict how they will choose to interact with each other, and better left to finding one at a time.) Rather, I think people should have reread D1 to see how he ended up getting mislynched. Who first called him scummy? When, how and why did the voteswitch from Miltonkram to Hegeo happen? These questions would have pointed to Mordanis and s0lstice. A good post by Release: "Think for yourselves. I can't stress how important this is." Doing this makes it harder for scum because its easy to blend in my merely agreeing with someone else rather than producing your own stance. People are kinda quiet at night which I don't like. This is somewhat a disputable point, but I'm of the group which thinks talking at night is really good. It lets you make more sense of the mislynch and keeps the pressure on scum. Staying mum doesn't really make sense to me. D2 sciberbia died. Should go back and reread what he said. Scum are either shooting people who are on the right track or people who look blue. The town doc died so its probably people on the right track. Now when I say right track I mean you should look at their general posting and thoughts as a whole rather than the the last one they posted, as scum can shoot people with wrong thoughts and have people follow that. We see Miltonkram pushing this nonsense idea of one of Release and Mordanis must be scum, which is a really easy way to seem like you are contributing without actually doing so. The whole time he entertains the idea that only one can be scum and pushes that idea and puts Release on the back foot. Now I'm confused why people aren't suspecting Miltonkram anymore - I'm guessing this pretense of activity and contribution may have played a part. N2~endgame I feel like I'm just hindsighting this part of the thread since I didn't read it until the game ended so I won't comment on the actual posts, but just throw out a couple of thoughts / pointers. Make your intentions clear: if you are accusing someone, stick a nice fat bolded vote on the bottom (or FOS if you are more reserved like that). At this point Miltonkram is acting really bogus - he spends all day talking about how sure he is about one of Release or Mordanis being scum, concludes Mordanis is scum but is happy to drop all that and go suspecting Golden. Activity =/= Contribution. Miltonkram is very active D2, yet he still hasn't contributed anything to scum hunting, especially as he just drops his Mordanis case and picks up someone else's case on Golden. Golden got lynched. Re-read. Who is pushing for it, who is supporting it, who isn't dying because of it? Mislynches happen. But they do hold information. Just gotta go back and reread. This would point to s0lstice and Miltonkram. Again, stop spoilering stuff, makes it harder to read or skim (should people be doing rereads after mislynches). I think post organization is a really important skill). s0lstice has died. It is LYLO. Through re-reads, three names popped up which are Mordanis, Miltonkram and s0lstice, the last of whom have died. This is a good list to look at. (I may be blind with hindsight at this point, other observers please chime in). Release: "We really don't need to be talking about Mufaa/Skware right now. There are still two scum left and one of them is guaranteed to be outside of Skware, if not both. So we need to go finding cases on the active four. The lurker can wait another day." Good post. Unfortunately the game has a messy end due to the lurker. Wrap Up (or TL;DR) - Great town atmosphere. Keep it civil, keep it clean. - Same with posts. Keep it consolidated, keep it unspoilered, and be clear with accusations when you make them (bold line at bottom). - Reread the mislynches. Who, how, why are all good questions. - Find scum 1 by 1. Keep connections in mind but don't employ them until one scum actually flips. | ||
|
hegeo
Germany194 Posts
I pretty much agree with all you write, and I've learned a lot. Even though I have to do real life stuff at the moment, I'm thrilled to get back in game during summer. | ||
| ||
