EPTLiar Game Mini Mafia
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Will be catching up and making sense of things for tonight. | ||
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slOosh
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@Palmer I don't know why Radfield cast his votes the way he did. Only guess I have is his last post On May 02 2012 12:47 Radfield wrote: I just did. I skimmed for a vote count and went off a post a few pages ago. I sent in 3 on prplhz and 2 on cephiro, should take them both to 9. I'm off to bed. I'm not sure how the spreadsheet developed. Does anyone know where Radfield may have anticipated 3 votes to come from? Because prplhz would have died without Rad's votes, but Rad thought he already had 6. The thing that pops out most for me is Sandroba's early game suggestion On May 01 2012 01:46 sandroba wrote: I'm already thinking about round B and I think the optimal way is to claim all votes and spread them across your top 5 town reads from the pool of 10 players left. That way is the hardest for scum to save their dude and provides the most information. That's because scum can provide at max 2 votes on their teamates to make them avoid being lynched and scummy dudes will end up being lynched on average. Which is really dangerous as claiming all votes allows for more scum manipulation, and while it is true that it is hard for scum to save a certain individual, the same exact thing applies for townies. This plan would no doubt result in townie casualties. But what throws me off is that Ace (flipped town) and Foolishness (strong scum hunter) don't think he is scum. So I'm kind of torn in this who-should-I-sheep business which includes Radfield who is a good player and confirmed town to me. | ||
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slOosh
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Cephiro: 13 - (chaoser 4, Sheth 4, Ace 2, Radfield 2, Meapak 1) Mr Wiggles: 13 - (Katina 3, EchelonTee 2, syllogism 2, wherebugsgo 2, gonzaw 1, Palmar 1, prplhz 1, sandroba 1) Meapak_Ziphh: 11 - (Ace 2, EchelonTee 2, Katina 2, chaoser 1, Mr. Wiggles 1, Palmar 1, Sheth 1, syllogism 1) Echelon Tee: 10 - (gonzaw 2, Mr. Wiggles 2, wherebugsgo 2, Cephiro 1, Meapak 1, Palmar 1, sandroba 1) Chaoser: 9 - (Foolishness 3, Meapak 2, BloodyC0bbler 1, EchelonTee 1, Mr. Wiggles 1, sandroba 1) Liquid`Sheth: 8 - (BloodyC0bbler 4, Foolishness 2, Ace 1, Meapak 1) Radfield: 8 - (gonzaw 2, syllogism 2, Mr. Wiggles 1, Palmar 1, prplhz 1, sandroba 1) Prplhz: 6 - (Radfield 3, Palmar 1, sandroba 1, wherebugsgo 1) Sandroba: 5 - (VisceraEyes 5) VisceraEyes: 4 - (Cephiro 4) Votes from Majority Cephiro: 11 - (chaoser 4, Sheth 4, Radfield 2, Meapak 1) MrWiggles: 5 - (EchelonTee 2, gonzaw 1, prplhz 1, sandroba 1) Meapak_Ziphh: 5 - (EchelonTee 2, chaoser 1, Mr. Wiggles 1, Sheth 1) EchelonTee: 5 - (Mr. Wiggles 2, Cephiro 1, Meapak 1, sandroba 1) Chaoser: 5 - (Meapak 2, EchelonTee 1, Mr. Wiggles 1, sandroba 1) Liquid`Sheth: 1 - (Meapak 1) Radfield: 3 - (Mr. Wiggles 1, prplhz 1, sandroba 1) Prplhz: 4 - (Radfield 3, sandroba 1) Sandroba: 5 - (VisceraEyes 5) VisceraEyes: 4 - (Cephiro 4) Votes from Minority Cephiro: 2 - (Ace 2) MrWiggles: 9 - (Katina 3, syllogism 2, wherebugsgo 2, gonzaw 1, Palmar 1) Meapak_Ziphh: 6 - (Ace 2, Katina 2, Palmar 1, syllogism 1) EchelonTee: 5 - (gonzaw 2, wherebugsgo 2, Palmar 1) Chaoser: 4 - (Foolishness 3, BloodyC0bbler 1) Liquid`Sheth: 7 - (BloodyC0bbler 4, Foolishness 2, Ace 1) Radfield: 5 - (gonzaw 2, syllogism 2, Palmar 1) Prplhz: 2 - (Palmar 1, wherebugsgo 1) Sandroba: 0 - (n/a) VisceraEyes: 0 - (n/a) Is there any way to obtain the progress of the spreadsheet? I feel like there is a wealth of information there. Like, how is it Sheth only got 1 vote from minority or Cephiro received 2 from majority? WBG could you make the order of PMs public if you have them? | ||
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slOosh
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With the cycle plan, I suppose it is one of the improbable but should be noted points where even though we say that scum won't out themselves to save their buddy, if it means that multiple townies die then they would be willing to make such a trade. But it seems from the results that people just voted in a way to get certain people lynched (i.e. Sandroba and VisceraEyes). | ||
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slOosh
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slOosh
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slOosh
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slOosh
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slOosh
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Also, Cephiro would have been lynched without BC. | ||
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slOosh
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Foolishness (14) Katina (5), Mr. Wiggles (4), chaoser (2), EchelonTee (2), sandroba (1) Katina (10) Foolishness (5), gonzaw (3), Mr. Wiggles (1), sandroba (1) Palmar (8) syllogism (5), prplhz (3) gonzaw (7) EchelonTee (3), slOosh (3), sandroba (1) EchelonTee (7) gonzaw (2), slOosh (2), Liquid`Sheth (1), sandroba (1), wherebugsgo (1) Meapak_Ziphh (6) wherebugsgo (4), BloodyC0bbler (2) Cephiro (2) BloodyC0bbler (2) prplhz (1) sandroba (1) BloodyC0bbler (0) Nobody Do you guys think this is reflective of Meapak's alignment? Because the votes are hidden (opposed to D1 where there was a spreadsheet / VE just dumped a bunch on sandroba), scum are unsure of exactly how many votes they need to save their buddies if they are in risk of getting lynched. They have to run the gambit of if they put too much and it doesn't seem necessary it draws attention to themselves, but too little and it might not be enough to save a friend (or maybe even the opposing family scum as they want to survive town lynches). BC's two votes seem to fit that bill with Cephiro (whom I and most others think is scum) - and it looks like it could also be the case for Meapak. Are there PM's that can support either side? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Furthermore, 2 votes seems premeditated. It pushes players into a threshold in which they cannot be lynched if someone else has 0 or 1 votes - this seems significant because it is the fine balance between wanting someone not to die but also being able to argue / explain the votes in a non incriminating way. Say he dumped 5 votes on Ceph and he somehow survived - barring getting into the minority there is no way that he isn't going to get lynched next day. Yet putting 1 vote may not be enough to save them, and might result in multiple people dying. I agree that this is not individually conclusive - as it could be him putting suspicion on MZ. That is why I'm asking if anyone has PM logs that may shed more light on the situation. | ||
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slOosh
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slOosh
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We can probably just assume 1KP per night but anymore would be pure speculation. | ||
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slOosh
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slOosh
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slOosh
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slOosh
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slOosh
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On May 07 2012 01:34 syllogism wrote: It seems to me you should have PMed your #1 town read, Palmar instead if you wanted to keep that information secret so you could see how people react. Also, if he told BC beforehand that the votes were a bluff, then BC would have known that Cephiro was very likely to receive no votes at all, and still chose to put two votes on him. He knew that no doubt that this would bring some intense suspicions and scrutiny upon him. So I'm inclined to think that he anticipated the good probability that he was going to die and used his votes without fear of repercussion upon himself. (all pronouns in this sentence referring to BC). Now I'd say that this looks very similar to his votes on MZ. WBG could you confirm who had this information that you were voting MZ? Or your thoughts on MZ in general? | ||
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slOosh
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slOosh
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Sandroba is because of his early sprinking votes suggestion, which allows easier manipulation by scum, and also makes it much harder to identify the true source of mislynches. Couple that with his lurking / general aloofness (I guess people bring up his meta comes into play here), and posts like http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=333034¤tpage=45#892 don't look so good. Sheth is because claiming 5 votes on Cephiro doesn't make any sense. Prior to this I saw him suspicious based because he is so eager to comply and sheep, and there seems to be no shred of caution / discernment. Cephiro because he is calling everyone stupid and being a jerk-face. Reluctance to share reads as well as straight up trolling I cannot see as town. That scumslip that Syllo caught is also a heavy tell as he bashes Palmer for a good 2~3 pages of his filter and would still consider him town. --- Additional read would be Meapak based on BC's vote and general silence in the thread. On May 08 2012 01:11 chaoser wrote: No? We don't kill multiple people cause they HAVE a chance of flipping townie. At the same time a longer game being more information. Why are you misrepresenting what I'm saying? The two things are not exclusive of each other. Then why are you defending the people to be lynched via proposal of this extension plan rather than showing / convincing us that they have a good chance of flipping town? In all mafia games there is no 100% certainty unless you are either scum / power role, yet you would never cite that statistical chance as an excuse not to lynch - why is it different in this case? Am I wrong in interpreting your plan as "let's not lynch multiple people to get more information?" opposed to "let's not lynch multiple people because they have a good chance of flipping town?" Because if multiple people are scummy, why not just lynch them all? | ||
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slOosh
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On May 08 2012 02:03 Palmar wrote: I'm trying to figure out if there's a gaping hole somewhere in prplhz's plan. I have no interest in mafia opinions. Only thing I can think of is if one of the reads are wrong and there are 25 votes between 2 people, and even though they may out themselves scum won't care if it means 5 dead townies. This however is remedied by having the 3 suspects sprinkle their votes unevenly (0,1,1,1,2) upon the 5 townies in the plan. That way, an all in by scum team can be deflected by only 1 townie death. | ||
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slOosh
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On May 08 2012 05:32 prplhz wrote: I'm think that gonzaw/slOosh might be on to something here, if there's a townie in there then he's probably dead instead of any scum. This is probably not a great plan since I thought it up so I'm a bit worried that people are just going along with it for the most. I hope everybody plays along and we kill the three and then we see what comes out of it. It should work as long as everyone cooperates. Or as a safeguard I'm fine if like WBG moves his vote off me onto someone else, giving the 5 town in the plan (gonzaw, katina, Mr.Wiggles, syllogism, slOosh) a 10-9-9-9-8 spread. That way the worst case scenario is if both scum teams work together to save their members, in which only 1 townie dies (doubt that both scum teams will out themselves for 1 townie). The scum teams can't individually scrounge up enough votes (15votes between two members = 7,8; 10 votes between one member = 5), and 8 is the threshold value for this lynch. | ||
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slOosh
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slOosh
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So I've been thinking it through and looking over Foolishness' posts / PMs because he is smart town player. One thing I've noticed is how he thinks that distinguishing the families are important. Since it's my first time playing a game with 2 mafia families, I guess it's taken me some time to understand what this means, but I think I'm onto something / there's good discussion to be had here. We know that there are 2 mafia families. BloodyC0bbler flipped Yokoya. Let's say for the sake of flavor the other team is Harimoto. As already discussed, it is likely that Cephiro belongs to the Yokoya family, as well as Sandroba. The round B results support this as we see a 2-1 split between them D1 and D2. On D3 both vote no, but this is when the thread generally agrees that they are both scum. I'm guessing it is a bus gambit as they don't have much to gain from 1-1 split (where no doubt they would be in serious danger of being lynched) or an attempt to separate themselves from each other. For the Harimoto family I'm putting in chaoser and Meapak. This is primarily through sifting of Meapak's PMs. You can see that he is very active in PM land. He PMs BC & Cephiro, which indicates that he isn't of the Yokoya family. He doesn't PM sandroba, prplhz, chaoser, Palmer and gonzaw. Now it's understandable you wouldn't bother PMing people you think are mafia (Palmer, gonzaw, prplhz or sandroba). Yet there is no PM interaction between him and chaoser. Furthermore, looking into his filter there is no mention of chaoser. The same can be said of chaoser and his views on Meapak. He barely mentions him in the thread, and only with the last nights flip does Meapak suddenly become obvious town. | ||
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slOosh
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On May 08 2012 04:13 slOosh wrote: Then why are you defending the people to be lynched via proposal of this extension plan rather than showing / convincing us that they have a good chance of flipping town? In all mafia games there is no 100% certainty unless you are either scum / power role, yet you would never cite that statistical chance as an excuse not to lynch - why is it different in this case? Am I wrong in interpreting your plan as "let's not lynch multiple people to get more information?" opposed to "let's not lynch multiple people because they have a good chance of flipping town?" Because if multiple people are scummy, why not just lynch them all? And on that note we have all the information we need - we just need the confirmation in forms of flips. | ||
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slOosh
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slOosh
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slOosh
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On May 09 2012 12:27 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Well that was unfortunate even if expected. However the game's over. WBG and I worked out a finalized scum list. Team A: Cephiro, BloodyCobbler, Chaoser Team B: Sandroba, Palmar, Mr. Wiggles If the townies could please PM me, I've got a plan that will maximize the number of scum in round A so we can finish this quick. | ||
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slOosh
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Talked it over with someone, and I realized I made a logical jump. In the thread WBG has mentioned a couple of times of his town-esque read on Meapak. On May 08 2012 04:53 wherebugsgo wrote: I'm fine with the prplhz plan; my only reservation is that meapak may be town but it seems more unlikely as the game goes on. On May 08 2012 13:20 wherebugsgo wrote: At the time I used meapak as the example because I thought he was the most likely to be town out of the 3. (I basically considered chaoser and sheth about even to flip scum and meapak more likely to be town) I incorrectly put in my guess (that active back and forth PM with good agreement = reason for town read) as the reason for why WBG thought Meapak might be town (or asserted it like a fact rather than my opinion). The PMs show a more agreement nature rather than a suspicious / aggressive tone (which I got to experience firsthand). Now on that note, WBG actually followed up on what he said in his PM with you by PMing me and pressuring me, while you did nothing in thread or PM - why is this? | ||
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slOosh
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slOosh
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2nd On May 10 2012 14:04 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Right now there's 6 town and 5 scum. I'm a mislynch, so I propose we kill Palmar today, since I feel best about him being scum at this point. I don't think we can multi-lynch effectively right now. We have people who are supposed to get lynched as soon as they hit the majority, so they can screw with a multi-lynch without any fear, essentially. Also, we're at the point where we can't unnecessarily kill any townies, or we lose control of the lynch more than we already have. It's getting to the point where scum will have to shoot the other scum team, or they'll risk losing in a king-maker scenario where town gets to pick who wins, which I'm sure would be unsatisfactory, or to pure numbers of the other team if too much KP hits the town or town mislynches too many at once and gets their numbers wiped out. So, they should keep that in mind when they send in kills tonight. Mr. Wiggles is fearmongering. Its 6 town, 3 scum and 2 scum. He proposes that we kill Palmar but still hasn't provided any case / reasoning at all. At all. He is considered a serious lynch candidate but is still using his time to ask other's for their opinions rather than convincing people that Palmar is scum. And the last line - looks seriously like scum team suggesting something to the other scum team. Why would town make a suggestion for scum team and think they would listen? Town agenda conflicts with scum agenda. Most likely scum teams aligning agenda temporarily. Also betrays some understanding of the KP system. It was 1 shot D1, D2 and 2 shots D3. Straight up he assumes 2KP again. | ||
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slOosh
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slOosh
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Hopefully I won't keep derping and making logical missteps. Writing up current thoughts on this situation. | ||
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slOosh
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Mr Wiggles & Palmar, how do you think your scum reads divide into the two families? | ||
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slOosh
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slOosh
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4yes, 4 no -> 5yes, 5no with ceph&sand split or 4 yes/no 6 no/yes with ceph & sand same answer. No doubt scum team will try to squirm sand / ceph into minority somehow so will be thinking about it today. | ||
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slOosh
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sandroba Mr. Wiggles Meapak_Ziphh prplhz Katina EchelonTee Sloosh Palmar gonzaw For a townie, just cross your name off the list and half of the people are scum. I find it unlikely that the 5 group isn't compromised as it would mean the other 4 are all scum (somewhat possible) - people who are calling the shots, really start figuring out the stuff and lay it out in the open if you think its good to do so. Palmar would you say now that both EchelonTee and Mr.Wiggles are scum according to vote patterns or are you reconsidering your other reads? prplhz do you agree / disagree with whatever Palmar says when he says it? | ||
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slOosh
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slOosh
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I think Palmar is pretending to play the part of the fool, using the Cephiro town-flip as an excuse to abnegate all former reads and get to choose a fresh position without repercussions. On May 14 2012 23:57 Palmar wrote: Cephiro flipping town changes everything, I've been basing other reads of that, so no, everyone can be scum right now. ET and Wiggles could both be scum, sandroba can now be the last member from BC's family which leaves us with a completely undiscovered family so every connection is completely irrelevant. I'll be sure to post shit before daybreak, need to re-read everything. I don't buy it. When I saw the flip, yea I got upset that he flipped town but it didn't mean that all my reads were gone down the drain. It just meant that I would have to account for one more mafia, and according to Palmar's filter his reads were not so rigid that he couldn't account for this without breaking down each read. Yet that is what he asserts in this quote - that all his reads were based on Cephiro scum flip - no town bases reads like that. He doesn't bother explaining to us how sandroba can be the last member, but just assumes it and then declares every connection irrelevant - as if discouraging us from finding connections. He ends on an empty promise - he isn't posting because he wants allegedly wants time to re-read everything (again, I don't buy that). But he never follows up - he says elsewhere that he probably won't get shot because Katina casted doubt on him - then why the empty promise? Why not just use a confidant in prplhz? His insistence on my towniness is also suspicious. I think it is so I will stop being suspicious of him as it is really difficult to call someone who thinks you are town as scum. Take for instance this quote right here On May 15 2012 22:08 Palmar wrote: It seems very unlikely sloosh is scum based on the fact that radfield very vocally supported me and syllogism early in the game. in addition, he also voiced support for foolishness's early case against chaoser which turns out was correct. he was basically backing townies and taking a stance against mafia. He roleclaimed to me on day 1, quite early. I don't think he's scum. No one is seriously discussing that I'm scum yet that is what he spends his time doing - talking about how towny I am. Not only that, this was all based on Radfield (whom I replaced), yet before he thought me suspicious solely on Radfield's voting of Cephiro (which was perfectly explained afterwards by WBG on how it was according to the voting plan) On May 11 2012 02:04 Palmar wrote: That argument is obviously invalid now that it's very hard for me to make a case which would make MZ scum. prplhz still looks very towny because of his interactions with syllogism early in the game. I keep coming back to the fact that Radfield voted for Cephiro early in the game. This is the annoying thing about replacements, he/you are getting away with no responsibility at all from that exchange. I'm re-reading the entire thing to form a new opinion on the game. It's like he is cherry picking whatever information he wants to justify his reads / stance at the given time. Lastly, I'm extremely wary of his 'foolishness' approach where he declares people town, because foolishness eliminated the group down to 2 people (being very clear and staunch with his stance), yet Palmar is doing it with 4 (I'd call it borderline preemptive wishy-washy), and not pursuing his normal style of scumhunting of finding people one by one. Furthermore, it denies any accountability - should we lynch one of the bottom people and they flip town, the worst you could accuse Palmar of is being wrong with a town read. Its an incredibly scummy approach to playing this game. I've been somewhat hesitant with his interactions with Meapak, but now after looking at his responses and actions after WBG and syllo were shot, I'm set. Yes, I think Palmar is scum. | ||
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slOosh
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(but please do it as early as possible as I have limited internet access as I'm moving into summer apartments which doesn't have internet yet and I have to come onto campus to get it) | ||
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slOosh
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ET, that post you thought he sounded towny because, I doubt you could find much else in his filter. I in my dazed sickness posted something stupid - and he blasted it out of the water. But that isn't indicative of his alignment, it just shows he is capable of catching bad logic when he sees it. Whether or not he has demonstrated use of this for town I would highly debate. | ||
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slOosh
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Just a few more pieces and the game will be solved: Could I have some timestamps of when the conversation of the plan went down? I want to cross examine my PMs because something is fishy and I'm becoming pretty certain but more info doesn't hurt. | ||
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slOosh
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7 players. 3 vote one way, 2 vote the other. Either they split and it becomes 4-3 with 1 of them in majority, or they vote same and it ends up 5-2 or 3-4, in which case we can lynch both / one at time whatever. Unless anyone doesn't think Wiggles is scum. Then you should be speaking and I don't understand what you could be thinking. | ||
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slOosh
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Final scum will become more clear with the Sandro flip - right now family analysis is key (or at least what I'm looking at), and I can't discount the possibility of Sandroba being a member of the Harimoto family. | ||
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slOosh
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I'm anticipating also the possibility of scum teams co-operating, and it doesn't make sense to try nailing all of them as it unnecessary for now. If the majority contains my read then I'll reveal it and push for it. | ||
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slOosh
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No one has bothered to make any statement in thread any reservations about his towniness. And the voting system looks like its rigged to allow for the chance of lynching katina as well (by withdrawing all votes). There's no indication that sandroba will comply (no reason for him to, just look at yesterday he can just dump illegal votes). Wiggles can out himself because no one seems to think he is town and the trio can pull off the maneuver they pulled on Palmar and prplhz. I'm thinking that you guys are contemplating a slOosh-katina scum team. I want to know who is pushing for this set up, because I'm thinking its the same person who pushed for Palmar prplhz double lynch. A town-scum double lynch is not good for us. If you think she is scum then you should discuss it in thread. Right now we have 7 players. If we lynch town-scum then its down to 5 players, 2 scum, and there is no guarantee that we will even have the ability to lynch scum as our strong read might get into minorty and we will be forced into this 'I guess we lynch the least towniest person' nonsense. I think katina is town. Which means one of the trio is scum. Bring it out into the thread. Because right now two of you are being deceived (or I'm wrong about katina). So show me how she is scum or how the trio is so definitely town. I'm not planning on going rogue - its clear this game is about co-operation on another level and that pulling a lone ranger is the worst thing that can happen. But I'm voicing serious reservations about how this is being conducted. | ||
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slOosh
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No one has bothered to make any statement in thread any reservations about his scumminess (basically no one is saying he might be town / he looks town) | ||
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If you think Mr. Wiggles is town then please say so. If you think katina is scum please say so. | ||
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Therefore I will spend the rest of my energies anticipating worst case scenario of the 1 scum in the trio if there is one. I'm pretty sure Mr. Wiggles is scum, and a 2-1 worst case scenario is just a matter of the townies identifying each other and splitting 1-1 forcing the final scum into majority. But yea if Mr. Wiggles and katina are both scum you guys should surrender so we can end this game faster and start post game discussions. | ||
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slOosh
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From: Katina [ 191 posts | Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: day plan Date: 5/22/12 01:21 Do you find it likely there are no more night kills? Because I don't. And if a mafia has a night kill it's gonzaw. His plan hinges on a possible stalemate scenario. No townie is going to settle for a draw like that. Something's wrong. Hey check it out guys, I found a letter of resignation! My gosh what a treasure trove of nervousness. In her eyes I should be the other townie right? She thinks Mr. Wiggles is scum, and therefore 1 scum in the trio. I would surmise that she would think gonzaw is town because he gets shot. But that assumes that for some reason 1 mafia family would gain KP (and not the other). Reaching for straws now. In the next breath she calls his plan something that "no townie" would settle for (?). What is this I don't even? She is calling gonzaw mafia or what? Something is wrong but she isn't pointing out what exactly? And I'm the townie who has agreed with the plan, right? So she is trying to cast suspicions on (I'm not sure who exactly she is even pointing fingers at) with the same reason that would make me not townie? This combined with her weak response to gonzaw's lambaste (totally felt like a Pheonix Wright grilling) is good enough for me. She is the last scum. The case is probably Katina is Yokoya. Mr. Wiggles is Harimoto. That makes me the cool townie who http://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bs0NWmIZ-8#t=01m28s Here is a video demonstration of the situation And on that note, I'm not gonna bother suspecting MZ or ET on paranoia anymore. And if I'm wrong then I'm sure the trio can clear it up better than I could hope to, and we can all have a good laugh at the end. | ||
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I guess my initial reservations of the trio weren't unfounded. Just didn't expect two members in it. And gonzaw you just called me scum? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 23 2012 16:32 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Greetings fellow players. It is mathematically impossible for town to win. Even if scum doesn't have any KP, tomorrow will be a 2v2 situation. The two final scum can claim (or perhaps they already are in contact) and force the town into an unwinnable situation. Here's how. Both scum simply vote opposite each other, it'll only work once but they may get lucky and have both townies vote the same way. In this case there will be 3 in the majority. In this case both townies are dead along with one scum, leaving the other team victorious. However, if it doesn't work the first time then the game will be caught in a perpetual round A scenario with the two townies and the two scum voting opposite of each other. This is what's going to happen with no night kills. If there are night kills then scum can just have a draw between themselves by claiming now and coordinating hits. I again ask that the night be sped up, if the hosts aren't declaring a draw now that makes me think that scum has KP left. Again, town can't win without one of the scum teams quitting which in my book is an unwinnable situation. Sure it's possible. Actually, this is freakishly like the actual liar game situation. And here is how it goes. I am voting yes to whatever the question will be. Therefore, you are all auto prisoner scenario. And I will continue to vote yes forever. And then its a draw ... yea Meapak is right. Strange - even if you were able to correctly deduce the last scum members you are not guaranteed a win, or even a draw. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/k5j26.jpg) What I have voted Here's the breakdown. I have voted no. There is one scum and one town. Here are the possible scenarios. You all vote no with me. This is an optimal situation, however we should not aim for this. Town forfeits the win if both townies vote the same and end up in 2-1 split (ends up in a draw 1-1 unless there is more KP / special endgame scenario in which case scum win) One of you vote no and the other votes yes. Now I've covered what happens if scum get into minority. If the other townie gets into minority then they have the choice who to save. I trust said townie to make the right choice (i.e. put 5 on me and we win game). Both of you vote yes. Then I let both of you die with 0 votes and town victory. That is the safe way where I am least susceptible to manipulation/paranoia. Thus if you truly believe I'm town, then voting yes (opposite to me) will be the safest course of action. If the townie trusts me he will vote opposite me. Scum will end up in majority no matter what. If I am majority: Everyone votes illegally -> me and scum die -> we win If I am minority: Everyone votes illegally -> both of you die -> we win If you think I am the scum, then you have to split 1-1 to get me into the majority, plain and simple. If you trust other guy enough to do that, then I suppose you can fight over who gets to be opposite to me (i.e. minority). If your town read and thus level of trust is that strong then well played scum gg. But I doubt that such a strong read exists, especially with your tattered trio flipping 1 scum already. Why you can trust the plan: - I have no manipulation in what the third player will vote. Whether I am in majority or minority is at their discretion. In fact, if the townie votes opposite me he too can just let me die, for if scum hits minority we lost already anyways. Therefore we as town will win. - I am town. Look at my filter. If I am pulling strings in the background with the other guy thinking that you are scum, you would have already lost, and therefore you can eliminate that thought. So do the right thing. Vote Yes, and we can finally win this. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Hahaha, I dunno I just really got into this serious liar game mood I suppose. But yes. I have casted my vote a long time ago and I really do wonder what tonight's results will be. I'll see you guys tomorrow. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I thought one of MZ or ET was scum since the formation, (props to gonzaw for deceiving me again >.>) and only with Wiggle & katina's flip did I realize gonzaw was scum, and that my earlier suspicions of one of them being scum weren't unfounded. I concluded that MZ was the final town. (its funny as gonzaw defended you as town on SoaF meta but I knew from that clash in SMMVII that you were much much more aggressive as town). I tried deceiving ET with PMs to go for the 2-1-1 victory, but the unexpected KP made the situation quite different, putting us at 2-1. I hoped that MZ would be able to deduce my towniness from his own readings (I think I overestimated how townish I looked) and that PMing him will induce paranoia and so it was best to leave him alone. I guess I fooled ET? But ET fooled MZ so props to him. I was half thinking that MZ was playing a trick on ET to get some response and thus a better read on him but I guess not. Here are the final PMs. + Show Spoiler [PM with Meapak] + To: Meapak_Ziphh [ Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: liar game - we can still win Date: 5/24/12 05:02 First, my reads: http://i.imgur.com/Q2oh3.png If you pull up each person's filter, you will notice them supporting each other / identify when the busses start happening. For instance, gonzaw's filter will show him soft defending sandroba early on in the game, and echelon's filter will show the same for chaoser. Behavioral analysis puts you as final town as well. Katina pushed gonzaw hard - I wasn't notified that I would be saved but I was, and her final wish was go for gonzaw. My PMs indicate that Echelon has been unreasonably suspecting (showing some weird clarvoyance) into the possibility of this situation - when he shared reads he suspected one of the trio well before the final axe. The thread indicates that out of the three responses that yours is the most genuine. You care about town. That is what I see. How can I prove my towiness? Well I'm not sure I can prove that behavourally, but voting analysis supports me because if I was yokoya (red) I would have voted with chaoser twice (unlikely since he was not under scrutiny till D4 got going and all four of us voted with him), and if I was harimoto (orange) it is unlikely due to my hard going after palmar. But my towniness is something I can't really prove. Well, I suppose by process of elimination I can prove that I must be the last townie. Anyways, here is how we win (possibly) We split votes 1-1. We dupe scum via PMs and whatnot, and hope they land in majority (i.e. vote 2-0). Then we end up 3-1 with one of us in the majority, one in minority. Then, we win by dumping 5 votes onto each other. Scum can either: vote 5 each other in which case all three die and the townie in minority wins vote not 5 each other in which case both die and town wins 1 of them votes 5, the other doesn't and thus 1 scum dies in which we split 1-1 and scum lands majority and dies. If they team up then yes it will be perpetual draw. But they don't know who the other scum is. This is the liar game - where we work up false visages, trick them into voting into majority and win. You are right in that the first cycle after this will determine whether we win or we draw. Gonzaw aint gonna listen to me. ET I might be able to deceive, but who knows what correspondence has been occuring between the two. I will begin my PMs with ET now. I give you my word that I am town, and I think you are last town. I will be treating you as such. There is no guarantee that I am myself duping you as I will be duping ET, since I could be elaborate scum, but I think you would be giving me too much credit to call it excellent scum play. + Show Spoiler [PM with ET] + To: EchelonTee [ Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: Re: liar Date: 5/24/12 05:09 Alright, didn't tell you the full story because I was trying to figure out which one of you are the last town. Katina did not tell me anything, but her last PM told me her wishes to lynch gonzaw. Seeing her flip town and rereading her statements, as well as gonzaw's unnecessary grilling of her (why would you do that to scum?) I find myself in agreement with that sentiment. I know earlier when you shared your reads you said that if it was between me and gonzaw I would get the axe - hopefully a re-read of the situation will change your mind. As for Meapak, I've already expressed my concerns with you before this whole fiasco. I really thought Wiggles at least would flip, but with the two town flips it seems that my earlier suspicions were not unfounded. In the least, there is still a way we can win despite what people are saying in thread. We split votes 1-1. We dupe scum via PMs and whatnot, and hope they land in majority (i.e. vote 2-0). Then we end up 3-1 with one of us in the majority, one in minority. Then, we win by dumping 5 votes onto each other. Scum can either: vote 5 each other in which case all three die and the townie in minority wins vote not 5 each other in which case both die and town wins 1 of them votes 5, the other doesn't and thus 1 scum dies in which we split 1-1 and scum lands majority and dies. If they team up then yes it will be perpetual draw. But they don't know who the other scum is. This is the liar game - where we work up false visages, trick them into voting into majority and win. By now if you haven't figured it out I think you are last town. Gonzaw has closed off his ears to me, and right now I'm in the process of PMing Meapak. I'll keep you updated if I get any responses. If you trust me, I'd advise you to do the same (but don't give away that we have hidden agenda, still express some suspicions of me or whatnot). | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I guess I got caught up in making convoluted plans, and should have just pushed my read hard in the thread, but I felt like his "town read" on me was something I could manipulate. | ||
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