On May 02 2012 12:47 Radfield wrote:
I just did.

I skimmed for a vote count and went off a post a few pages ago.

I sent in 3 on prplhz and 2 on cephiro, should take them both to 9.

I'm off to bed.

I'm not sure how the spreadsheet developed. Does anyone know where Radfield may have anticipated 3 votes to come from? Because prplhz would have died without Rad's votes, but Rad thought he already had 6.

The thing that pops out most for me is Sandroba's early game suggestion

On May 01 2012 01:46 sandroba wrote:
I'm already thinking about round B and I think the optimal way is to claim all votes and spread them across your top 5 town reads from the pool of 10 players left. That way is the hardest for scum to save their dude and provides the most information. That's because scum can provide at max 2 votes on their teamates to make them avoid being lynched and scummy dudes will end up being lynched on average.

Which is really dangerous as claiming all votes allows for more scum manipulation, and while it is true that it is hard for scum to save a certain individual, the same exact thing applies for townies. This plan would no doubt result in townie casualties.

But what throws me off is that Ace (flipped town) and Foolishness (strong scum hunter) don't think he is scum.
So I'm kind of torn in this who-should-I-sheep business which includes Radfield who is a good player and confirmed town to me.

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 03 2012 20:17 GMT

#755

Total Votes
Cephiro: 13 - (chaoser 4, Sheth 4, Ace 2, Radfield 2, Meapak 1)
Mr Wiggles: 13 - (Katina 3, EchelonTee 2, syllogism 2, wherebugsgo 2, gonzaw 1, Palmar 1, prplhz 1, sandroba 1)
Meapak_Ziphh: 11 - (Ace 2, EchelonTee 2, Katina 2, chaoser 1, Mr. Wiggles 1, Palmar 1, Sheth 1, syllogism 1)
Echelon Tee: 10 - (gonzaw 2, Mr. Wiggles 2, wherebugsgo 2, Cephiro 1, Meapak 1, Palmar 1, sandroba 1)
Chaoser: 9 - (Foolishness 3, Meapak 2, BloodyC0bbler 1, EchelonTee 1, Mr. Wiggles 1, sandroba 1)
Liquid`Sheth: 8 - (BloodyC0bbler 4, Foolishness 2, Ace 1, Meapak 1)
Radfield: 8 - (gonzaw 2, syllogism 2, Mr. Wiggles 1, Palmar 1, prplhz 1, sandroba 1)
Prplhz: 6 - (Radfield 3, Palmar 1, sandroba 1, wherebugsgo 1)
Sandroba: 5 - (VisceraEyes 5)
VisceraEyes: 4 - (Cephiro 4)

Votes from Majority
Cephiro: 11 - (chaoser 4, Sheth 4, Radfield 2, Meapak 1)
MrWiggles: 5 - (EchelonTee 2, gonzaw 1, prplhz 1, sandroba 1)
Meapak_Ziphh: 5 - (EchelonTee 2, chaoser 1, Mr. Wiggles 1, Sheth 1)
EchelonTee: 5 - (Mr. Wiggles 2, Cephiro 1, Meapak 1, sandroba 1)
Chaoser: 5 - (Meapak 2, EchelonTee 1, Mr. Wiggles 1, sandroba 1)
Liquid`Sheth: 1 - (Meapak 1)
Radfield: 3 - (Mr. Wiggles 1, prplhz 1, sandroba 1)
Prplhz: 4 - (Radfield 3, sandroba 1)
Sandroba: 5 - (VisceraEyes 5)
VisceraEyes: 4 - (Cephiro 4)

Votes from Minority
Cephiro: 2 - (Ace 2)
MrWiggles: 9 - (Katina 3, syllogism 2, wherebugsgo 2, gonzaw 1, Palmar 1)
Meapak_Ziphh: 6 - (Ace 2, Katina 2, Palmar 1, syllogism 1)
EchelonTee: 5 - (gonzaw 2, wherebugsgo 2, Palmar 1)
Chaoser: 4 - (Foolishness 3, BloodyC0bbler 1)
Liquid`Sheth: 7 - (BloodyC0bbler 4, Foolishness 2, Ace 1)
Radfield: 5 - (gonzaw 2, syllogism 2, Palmar 1)
Prplhz: 2 - (Palmar 1, wherebugsgo 1)
Sandroba: 0 - (n/a)
VisceraEyes: 0 - (n/a)

Is there any way to obtain the progress of the spreadsheet? I feel like there is a wealth of information there.
Like, how is it Sheth only got 1 vote from minority or Cephiro received 2 from majority?
WBG could you make the order of PMs public if you have them?

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 03 2012 21:15 GMT

#760

I want to talk! I feel so out of the loop with all this PM land business.

With the cycle plan, I suppose it is one of the improbable but should be noted points where even though we say that scum won't out themselves to save their buddy, if it means that multiple townies die then they would be willing to make such a trade.

But it seems from the results that people just voted in a way to get certain people lynched (i.e. Sandroba and VisceraEyes).

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 04 2012 03:08 GMT

#794

As a note Radfield = slOosh. I'll be needing much direction this phase please.

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 04 2012 04:02 GMT

#797

I understand how it works. I want to cooperate so we don't end up with 4 dead townies. I want direction in the sense of a plan ala WBG's on D1 (or whoever it was).

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 04 2012 04:29 GMT

#799

Oh heads up - I won't have internet access around 5~6 hrs before deadline.

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 04 2012 20:27 GMT

#877

Open to PM thoughts as I cast my votes very soon (won't be here near deadline).

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 05 2012 03:39 GMT

#915

So do we just wait for Round A to figure out lynches?

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 05 2012 03:41 GMT

#916

Oh, and is Sandroba acting independently or co-operating? prplhz would have been lynched without him.
Also, Cephiro would have been lynched without BC.

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 05 2012 15:19 GMT

#931

wherebugsgo (15) Meapak_Ziphh (5), Liquid`Sheth (4), chaoser (3), prplhz (2), BloodyC0bbler (1)
Foolishness (14) Katina (5), Mr. Wiggles (4), chaoser (2), EchelonTee (2), sandroba (1)
Katina (10) Foolishness (5), gonzaw (3), Mr. Wiggles (1), sandroba (1)
Palmar (8) syllogism (5), prplhz (3)
gonzaw (7) EchelonTee (3), slOosh (3), sandroba (1)
EchelonTee (7) gonzaw (2), slOosh (2), Liquid`Sheth (1), sandroba (1), wherebugsgo (1)
Meapak_Ziphh (6) wherebugsgo (4), BloodyC0bbler (2)
Cephiro (2) BloodyC0bbler (2)
prplhz (1) sandroba (1)
BloodyC0bbler (0) Nobody

Do you guys think this is reflective of Meapak's alignment?
Because the votes are hidden (opposed to D1 where there was a spreadsheet / VE just dumped a bunch on sandroba), scum are unsure of exactly how many votes they need to save their buddies if they are in risk of getting lynched. They have to run the gambit of if they put too much and it doesn't seem necessary it draws attention to themselves, but too little and it might not be enough to save a friend (or maybe even the opposing family scum as they want to survive town lynches).

BC's two votes seem to fit that bill with Cephiro (whom I and most others think is scum) - and it looks like it could also be the case for Meapak. Are there PM's that can support either side?

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 05 2012 17:21 GMT

#933

But that is my point - he didn't know (unless WBG / Syllo want to chime in otherwise), and by extension his scum team didn't know. But just because he didn't know doesn't mean he would have just voted someone who had no chance of dying - he probably anticipated the possibility of his death and thereby used his votes in a way that furthered his team's agenda.

Furthermore, 2 votes seems premeditated. It pushes players into a threshold in which they cannot be lynched if someone else has 0 or 1 votes - this seems significant because it is the fine balance between wanting someone not to die but also being able to argue / explain the votes in a non incriminating way. Say he dumped 5 votes on Ceph and he somehow survived - barring getting into the minority there is no way that he isn't going to get lynched next day. Yet putting 1 vote may not be enough to save them, and might result in multiple people dying.

I agree that this is not individually conclusive - as it could be him putting suspicion on MZ. That is why I'm asking if anyone has PM logs that may shed more light on the situation.

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 05 2012 17:44 GMT

#936

What do you think about Cephiro now?

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 06 2012 05:21 GMT

#958

Probably one has KP power and the other has some vote influence / information power, or they switch off KP.
We can probably just assume 1KP per night but anymore would be pure speculation.

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 06 2012 05:28 GMT

#960

Oh. I suppose a 3rd party w/ 1KP playing survivor is possible. Yea that makes more sense than town vig with multiple shots hitting townies / multiple vigs.

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 06 2012 05:29 GMT

#961

Palmer do you still stand by your initial read of chaoser which led to your town read on Foolishness (whose reads we can now trust as town motivated)?

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 06 2012 06:10 GMT

#963

If that is the case then survivor (if he exists) is probably playing towniest townie possible, and we let them do that and worry about it after killing off all the mafia.

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 06 2012 20:40 GMT

#983

Speaking pure hypotheticals don't do anything for us. Could you post any logs you had with Ace / BC?

slOosh

3289 Posts

May 06 2012 21:42 GMT

#987

Then why not just post them?

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