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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 28 2012 09:47 Sbrubbles wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2012 09:35 Bluelightz wrote:Also, marvellosity is town, Scum wouldn't push scum  (therefore he is town.) Or WOULD he??? It's a huge can of WIFOM we're opening right now. Still, as I argued before, VE's behavior day 1 makes a shitton of sense if you consider he was protecting marv. Either way, gonna reread Marv right now.
It's not decisive one way or another, but bear in mind VisceraEyes did not know he was going to die tonight.
Great shot by Snarfs though, I'd got the impression VE was a decent scum candidate but I'm not sure I'd have had the balls to shoot him.
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Okay here's my case on marvellosity.
1) D1:
- Inactivity/no content: the only thing he comments on D1 before his vote is that Zentor might be town from a metagaming point of view.
- Sheeping: votes for Snarfs without giving any reasoning. Note this is Snarf's third vote.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 24 2012 04:21 marvellosity wrote:
s&b's effort on Snarfs is the best I've seen so far, and due to my own failure to make good scum-reads, that will be where my vote will rest atm.
##Vote: Snarfs
Note how on D2 he's changed his mind in relation to Snarfs. He only claims he's changed his mind on D2 when questioned about it. He removed his vote from Snarfs without mentioning him at all, so we could have assumed his opinion hadn't changed.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2012 06:25 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2012 06:12 Forumite wrote:On April 25 2012 06:09 marvellosity wrote:On April 25 2012 06:08 Forumite wrote:
What was up with Marvel? Was it more than him avoiding attention? Cursory glance through his filter told me that he´s not very aggressive, but that could be because most of his posts have been used to defend himself from the lynch. Well, I could be more aggressive if you like. You big ninny. Any questions for me while we're here?  What do you think about snarfs? You and him are the only players I haven´t seen playing before. Having had a look through his filter, he seems to be posting quite normally. Perhaps s&b's case on him was a little forced on him after all. I found his going after me for my 'soft-defences' to be really quite odd.
- Desperation/Pulling the newbie card/etc: His own explanation for what's going on makes no sense
+ Show Spoiler +On April 24 2012 05:36 marvellosity wrote:
I knew the end of the day would go this way. Every single Day 1 I've had I've looked bad; apparently this is something I'm seriously going to have to work on - I just haven't mastered the knack of manufacturing content when there is little material yet.
We're gonna drift into that lovely situation where town's gonna lynch me although no-one really thinks I'm scum, and everyone will be like "well, that kinda sucks, but hey ho whatcha gonna do" On April 24 2012 06:03 marvellosity wrote:
I would like to note that there has been no opposition to the growing bandwagon of my lynch when clearly scum has had the options to direct the vote almost anywhere with a maximum of 2 votes on any one person. On April 24 2012 06:30 marvellosity wrote:
Sigh. I dislike the fact that I'm scummy because I've not been able to form a decent read although I have been extremely transparent about it. I dislike the fact no-one answered my questions on VE/Radfield cases. I dislike the fact that there's been no opposition to my lynch.
Objectively the way this lynch is going down is making it pretty clear this is going to be a mislynch. On April 24 2012 06:58 marvellosity wrote:
The thing that ISN'T circumstancial is the fact that the lynch on me gently drifted into being without anyone trying to prevent it.
You should be able to discern the difference between the two. Engage logic please. On April 24 2012 07:05 marvellosity wrote:
Considerably more people trying to prevent my lynch than there are scum, in fact...
2) D2:
- He changed his stance on Zentor. That's perfectly fine. Or is it? Not enough people voted Zentor on D1 to secure his lynch, but who actually defended him? These four people did:
Radfield - Didn't vote for Zentor D2
Bluelightz - Didn't vote for Zentor D2
VE - Scum, voted for Zentor D2
Marv - Voted for Zentor D2
- Taking aside his Zentor comments, his D2 has almost nothing. It has weak accusations on Radfield, in which mostly he questions Rad's stance on Zentor but doesn't take a stance on Rad himself. Actually, he steps in to answer for VE:
+ Show Spoiler +On April 27 2012 02:57 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 02:28 Sbrubbles wrote:I'm questioning this part of your post: On April 24 2012 06:20 VisceraEyes wrote:
Rad made me rethink voting marv Rad has NOTHING in his post that would make you rethink voting marv. Nothing about going back to the beggining and rereading. Nothing. In fact, his post is lightly pro-marv lynch. If you see something in the following post that says anything about marv's metagame, about going back to the beggining and about rereading or anything of that kind, please point it out: Here you go. Show nested quote +On April 24 2012 04:34 Radfield wrote:
Marvellosity seems like an ok lynch, though in the newbie game(Newbie VI) I hosted, marvellosity really only posted one liners during day 1, which is what he's doing here as well. I'd like to compare and contrast the two game before I make any serious judgement.
##unvote
And question's Ace's stance on the issue without giving his own:
+ Show Spoiler +On April 26 2012 22:21 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2012 22:18 Ace wrote:
I feel like there is much effort to throw around other suspects names' and derail the wagon on Mr.Zentor.
The same Zentor who showed up with his "20 hours later" post and didn't even attempt to convince anyone on his reads.
Are you people really this dumb? Yes, but what do you actually think of the Radfield VE case?
3) VE's no lynch vote D1:
Now we've reached the main point. Look at marv's play in the early game. Perfectly lynchable in terms of lynching the unhelpful lurker. An easy mislynch for scum to push for ... if only marv was town.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 24 2012 04:01 VisceraEyes wrote:
I can see no tangible difference between Sbrubbles and marvel and could lynch either one based on the same reasoning.
VE takes a stance on me and marv, saying either one of us would be fine for the lynch. If Marv was town and he went for the mislynch, he could claim he was being consistent. He may have said this:
+ Show Spoiler +On April 24 2012 04:45 VisceraEyes wrote:
Well, I know marvellosity is capable of more - I didn't look at his early play, admittedly my expectation of him is based on his later game activity which I have read.
But that isn't a defense. It would be perfectly fine for him to press with on his lynch after saying that.
VE's posting show's he's willing, perhaps eager, to try to lead the mislynch:
Votes on Marv - 1
Votes on Snarfs - 3 (highest)
+ Show Spoiler +On April 24 2012 04:26 VisceraEyes wrote:
I mean, as it stands right now, town is going to have to massively consolidate just to GET a lynch.
What do you guy suggest? One of MrZentor or Snarfs? They're the leading candidates with 2 votes, one of MrZentors being his own. I think Zentor is town, and I don't think he'll end up voting for himself, so I'd have to go with Snarfs...but Snarfs looks town to me too.
There seems to be a consensus behind a Radfield lynch, would you guys join me in lynching him over an inactive I feel has a huge chance of flipping scum? Other than these options, it's looking like a No Lynch situation to me.
Then this happens:
+ Show Spoiler +On April 24 2012 05:31 phagga wrote:
##Vote: marvellosity On April 24 2012 05:33 SamuelLJackson wrote:
##vote marvellosity
--- Toad On April 24 2012 05:59 Sbrubbles wrote:
##unvote
##vote: marvellosity
Votes on Marv - 4 (highest)
Votes on Snarf - 3
VE then turns to a post Rad had made about 2 hours prior to justify him not voting on Marv. If Marv was town, he wouldn't have to do so, he could have been the 5th vote and probably gotten closer to the mislynch.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 24 2012 06:20 VisceraEyes wrote:
Rad made me rethink voting marv - I went back and reread the beginning of his newbie game that I read and he did find himself the victim of early suspicion.
I'm willing to no-lynch in this situation. In my opinion a no-lynch is better than a mislynch in this situation and I'm not confident enough in any of the lurkers anymore - there has been a lot of activity here toward the end, and it's hard to tell if it's because there's a scum candidate or because no one wants a no-lynch or what.
What do you think Toad? Do you think we should lynch a lurker or no-lynch? I'm okay with no-lynching to be frank.
In fact, this move made him stand out, both to me and to Toad. Now that VE's flipped scum, the pieces fit together.
4) VE's accusation on Marv: Everyone go back and read it over. His arguments in favor of a Marv lynch are purely on meta and weak as hell to boot. This, to me, looks like he is pairing up his scumbuddy with a soon-to-be confirmed townie (confirmed through death) in order to shift suspicion off Marv. If VE hadn't been shot, he would have either been trying to bus Marv at this point or, more likely (I think), bussing himself to give Marv town cred.
##vote marvellosity
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Nice shot snarfs.
I am on the road today, i hope to keep up from my mobile. I will write again in about 12 to 14 hours.
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Snarfs, good shot!
Sbrubbles, good to see you back.
First question on your Marv-case, why would VE have to vote no-lynch in order to save Marv? There wasn´t much threat to Marv, the case hadn+t built up yet, VE probably didn´t need to go in and save him.
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Prplhz, stop dodging the questions and give us your scumreads!
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
The entire VE part of my argument is just ridiculous. All the voting on Day 1 is nonsense as VE didn't need to vote or not vote for me for me not to get lynched.
As mentioned above VE did not know he was going to die tonight, so why would he be making a case against me under the reasonable assumption that I would live? If we're playing percentages, the percentages are very much that VE is living through the night (how can he have expected to be shot?) and was setting up what he regarded as one of the easier lynches the next day.
My 'stepping in to answer for VE' is in fact - 'pointing out what you should have been able to read yourself, you bloody idiot, but here I am having to do basic comprehensive skills for you'.
I also thought it was quite clear that I never voted for Snarfs because I was certain of it, I voted for him because it was the best case I had read thus far. Thusly:
On April 24 2012 06:58 marvellosity wrote:
Although Snarfs only has one vote less than me, I'm going to unvote him and vote for the no-lynch. It has good grounding and with no-one being certain of anything it seems a decent option at this point.
##Unvote
##Vote: No Lynch
The entire VE connection case is simply weak sauce.
Radfield thinks I am town.
If you're going to make a case, please make a case that's made of something. The entire thrust of a case against me should be that I haven't managed to scumhunt, which is an accusation I can't easily brush away. Your case however is easily brushed away based on weak circumstance and connection.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
EBWOP: under the reasonable assumption he would live, in para 2
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On April 28 2012 17:47 Forumite wrote:
Snarfs, good shot!
Sbrubbles, good to see you back.
First question on your Marv-case, why would VE have to vote no-lynch in order to save Marv? There wasn´t much threat to Marv, the case hadn+t built up yet, VE probably didn´t need to go in and save him.
Its more of a matter of why would he not pile on if marv was town? As a vet here on TL, his voice has weight to it. If he had voted, Marv would have gone to 5 votes, which is 2 away from a lynch. It wouldn't be guaranteed, but it would have made a world of difference. Also, his posting leading up to that day's lynch gave him a paper trail. No one could call him inconsistent if he went through with the vote, yet he went out of his way to not vote Marv, calling attention to himself.
On April 28 2012 19:45 marvellosity wrote:
As mentioned above VE did not know he was going to die tonight, so why would he be making a case against me under the reasonable assumption that I would live? If we're playing percentages, the percentages are very much that VE is living through the night (how can he have expected to be shot?) and was setting up what he regarded as one of the easier lynches the next day.
Yes, VE had no idea he was going to die and probably wasn't even considering the possibility. Yet he made a "case" on a person he knew was going to die: Radfield and added you in there as bonus. That would have given mafia 2 options, either of which was very plausible:
1) You bus him with special emphasis on his case on Radfield (who was soon to be confirmed through death), which would pair up your names and make you sound very townie (I think this is the more likely scenario).
2) He busses you, by insisting on his night case. It would be shown he was half right about it and give him enough town cred to ride him at least through another day.
And if for some reason neither of you were lynched, drinks all around!
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Actually nm I forgot we have 2 different definitions of bussing around here.
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oh and yes Bluelightz it's not over :D
##vote Bluelightz
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On April 28 2012 23:09 Ace wrote:
He bussed VE? Where?
He didn't, because VE is dead. I'm saying that was their plan. If VE would have lived.
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Fuck, can't make a case right now as I have to sleep, making a case as soon as I can after though.
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On April 28 2012 23:18 Sbrubbles wrote:He didn't, because VE is dead. I'm saying that was their plan. If VE would have lived.
Probable but why didn't he begin setting up VE during Night 2 or at the very end of Day 1? There was a lot of discussion going on and VEs name was off the radar. If he wanted to bus VE that would have been the perfect time to remind everyone "hey, VE is still a top suspect".
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On April 28 2012 19:45 marvellosity wrote:The entire VE part of my argument is just ridiculous. All the voting on Day 1 is nonsense as VE didn't need to vote or not vote for me for me not to get lynched. As mentioned above VE did not know he was going to die tonight, so why would he be making a case against me under the reasonable assumption that I would live? If we're playing percentages, the percentages are very much that VE is living through the night (how can he have expected to be shot?) and was setting up what he regarded as one of the easier lynches the next day. My 'stepping in to answer for VE' is in fact - 'pointing out what you should have been able to read yourself, you bloody idiot, but here I am having to do basic comprehensive skills for you'. I also thought it was quite clear that I never voted for Snarfs because I was certain of it, I voted for him because it was the best case I had read thus far. Thusly: Show nested quote +On April 24 2012 06:58 marvellosity wrote:
Although Snarfs only has one vote less than me, I'm going to unvote him and vote for the no-lynch. It has good grounding and with no-one being certain of anything it seems a decent option at this point.
##Unvote
##Vote: No Lynch The entire VE connection case is simply weak sauce. Radfield thinks I am town. If you're going to make a case, please make a case that's made of something. The entire thrust of a case against me should be that I haven't managed to scumhunt, which is an accusation I can't easily brush away. Your case however is easily brushed away based on weak circumstance and connection.
marv, your entire defense is that:
1. VE didn't know he was going to be shot.
2. Radfield thinks you are town
3. That the case didn't focus on the real scummy part of your play, even though it does include that too
1 Can not be assumed. Even before sbrubbles posted his case you try really hard to make sure everyone is aware the VE didn't know he was going to get shot. You are so damn sure of it, which doesn't make sense.
I made this post meaning to imply that I, or any vigilante really, was likely to shoot VE:
On April 28 2012 05:39 Snarfs wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 08:36 VisceraEyes wrote:
I don't agree that BL is even a proper candidate - and I find it odd that Rad and Ace both seem to think he's the "easy lynch".
This game is...very odd. I'll post my final thoughts before dawn. Can you post them now? You are near the top of a few scum lists that I've seen floating around so I wouldn't worry about mafia targetting you.
The bolded part specifically. Now, I'm not going to assume that VE picked up on that, but considering it was meant for him to pick up on so that I could see his defense, I'm not going to assume he didn't pick up on it either.
2 Can not be assumed either. Radfield did not see the flip, he did not have time to go back and reread the thread knowing VE was scum. Plus, even if he does think you're town, so what? Radfield is not infallible and that is a terribly contrived defense.
3 As for you claiming that Sbrubbles' case is "easily brushed away based on weak circumstance and connection": sounds like you're trying to undermine his case. He clearly mentions your lack of content and scumhunting. It is my opinion that rather than brush these parts of his case aside by claiming they're not even there, you should address them AND remedy them, or else my vote will remain on you today.
##Vote marvellosity
@strongandbig: I'd really value your input on this one since you played through the entire newbie game with marv where you were both town. What is your feeling on marvellosity?
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On April 28 2012 23:52 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2012 23:18 Sbrubbles wrote:On April 28 2012 23:09 Ace wrote:
He bussed VE? Where? He didn't, because VE is dead. I'm saying that was their plan. If VE would have lived. Probable but why didn't he begin setting up VE during Night 2 or at the very end of Day 1? There was a lot of discussion going on and VEs name was off the radar. If he wanted to bus VE that would have been the perfect time to remind everyone "hey, VE is still a top suspect".
That's a possibility. But do you see any other reason why VE would accuse Rad, who he knew was gonna die? I mean, why put a lot of effort into calling Rad scummy only 3 minutes before killing him? And why he would add Marv into his accusation? I've got my theory, but I'd like to know yours, Ace.
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On April 28 2012 23:52 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2012 23:18 Sbrubbles wrote:On April 28 2012 23:09 Ace wrote:
He bussed VE? Where? He didn't, because VE is dead. I'm saying that was their plan. If VE would have lived. Probable but why didn't he begin setting up VE during Night 2 or at the very end of Day 1? There was a lot of discussion going on and VEs name was off the radar. If he wanted to bus VE that would have been the perfect time to remind everyone "hey, VE is still a top suspect".
I think it is very likely that once Radfield flipped blue (which VE and his scumbuddies would know was going to happen), VE would be the lynch target for the day, or VE knew that he was also likely to be vigged (see above). EITHER WAY, at that point it makes sense to prepare for the situation.
However, I don't think the VE case on marv is the most suspicious part of their interaction, though it does add some weight. I think you should pay close attention to day 1. You said yourself, it didn't seem like VE cared who died. Yet, he refuses to place his vote on marv, even after claiming that he would be fine with a marv vote. He draws attention to himself by doing this. The only reason I can think a scum would risk drawing attention to themselves is to save another scum. What do you think about that?
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I find it curious that Ace insists on ignoring all behavioral analysis regarding Bluelightz.
I'm looking forward to seeing where this marvellosity pressure is going.
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To be specific marv, if you're looking for something to give your opinion on:
I noticed you were asking for previous filters from Bluelightz's scum games. What did you make of that?
Quick question: anyone know which games Bluelightz played scum in of late please?
What do you think of Ace's pressure on Bluelightz?
And finally, how would you compare strongandbig's play in the newbie game you played together to this game?
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##Vote marvellosity
You haven't really done anything all game.
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EPT
