EPTNewbie Mini Mafia VIII
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
Also, lol @ anyone who thinks Kharad's vote is random. He picked me because he wants to compare the response from last game to this game. And this entire conversation about how and when to pressure vote is pointless, considering it's already been done in this game. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
LaL seems to be a standard play. I'm all for lynching liars above all else. It sets a good tone that we won't allow scum to get away with it either. What do you mean by this? You say that lynching lying townies scares scum? I don't follow. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On April 12 2012 15:57 Xatalos wrote: + Show Spoiler + The person I want to lynch the most right now is: ArcticFox. Here is what I got from his filter so far: On April 12 2012 08:34 ArcticFox wrote: Let's not waste Day 1. Too many times I've seen people say it's not important. We can find out plenty as long as everyone posts. Please be active so we don't waste our first lynch on a bored townie. The sooner everyone posts, the sooner we can get to the real scumhunting. On the surface this looks like friendly advice to fellow townies, but this is EXACTLY the kind of posting I did on A Game of Thrones Mafia as a Mafia Framer. His attitude seems like he wants to appear useful, but he doesn't really say anything useful - the opposite of actual townies who want to be useful, but don't care as much about their appearance. The overall feel I get from this post is "please don't lynch me, I'm being useful!" On April 12 2012 08:58 ArcticFox wrote: I hope our blues this game are as clever as you were that game, KB. Discussion is good. Idle chat is not. As you newer people confirm, please post shortly after with your thoughts on these policies as well. First of all: why discuss about blue roles at all? This is the same mistake I did in A Game of Thrones Mafia - we kept talking about blue roles in the Mafia chat, so subconsciously I mentioned possibilities about the blue roles even in the normal thread. And what do you mean with "idle chat is not good"? So far this "idle chat" has been very useful (certainly much more useful than silence or the trolling/flaming we had in A Game of Thrones Mafia...). Also, you keep mentioning policies, which is something Mafia loves to do - you can appear somewhat useful without actually contributing anything. On April 12 2012 09:21 ArcticFox wrote: Verrrrry WIFOM reasoning. Be careful of that. It sounds logical, but discussing motive rarely leads anywhere. What if scum decides to bus? What if someone jumps up to defend because they think RNG is silly, or they have a blue read on him? This line of reasoning leads nowhere fast, and it's best to ignore it. You're tripping my scum-o-meter pretty hard right now. Got any better suggestions? There he goes again, talking about blue roles. It's too bad it probably ends now after I mention this, but I would have wanted to see how many times he can talk about blue roles / blue reads during the game, since this is the second time already in only 7 hours... And if you think Dittert is Mafia, why not vote for him or even put any real pressure on him? It looks like you just want to fake pressure an obvious target (a suspiciously acting townie) or put some distance between yourself and a fellow Mafia (if he gets lynched, you can claim you "pushed for his lynch" all along). On April 12 2012 10:28 ArcticFox wrote: I would prefer not to have to policy lynch at all, but liars and lurkers is a good place to start if we don't have any solid scumreads by the end of Day 1. So in short -- more people should post so we have more information to go on and can avoid a policy lynch. You look like you want to make a policy lynch, since you keep talking about policies, but still try to appear as if you "want" to lynch a Mafia player (if something too obvious comes along and you have to bus your teammate). I got a pretty solid Mafia read already in just a matter of hours, so this discussion is definitely not "useless"... ##Vote: ArcticFox I don't like this case at all. You start off by saying ArticFox's posting reminds you of your own posting as mafia in AGOT - this has no relevance at all; ArticFox isn't you - meta from another game with someone else playing is an awful reason to think someone is mafia. And policy discussion that early on with very few people online is perfectly normal. I'm also calling it now: likely either yomi or Dittert is Mafia. I have a hard time figuring out the 3 Mafia from this back-and-forth action, but if we manage to find even one today, it should make it easy to figure out the rest tomorrow. Why the sudden shift in tone? A few posts ago, you were 70 or 80 percent sure that ArticFox is mafia, in this same post you say that either yomi or Dittert is mafia, and yet at the same time you have a hard time figuring out who mafia is? You sound like a mafia member getting a bandwagon rolling and then jumping off before it crashes. ##Vote: Xatalos | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On April 13 2012 01:30 yomi wrote: note arctic coming to the defense of dittert aka the most highly suspected player defending the second most highly suspected player. first big slip? not sure what to make of hiro accusing xatalos. I think the guy is kind of ridiculous but I think he (xatalos) is town. arctic/ditt/hiropro mafia 1/2/3 ? Answer the question. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On April 13 2012 05:01 Acrofales wrote: Please tell me who you think is scummy and why? Read better. On April 13 2012 06:39 BroodKingEXE wrote: Hiro has offered nothing substantial as well, bandwagoning on the suspicions of Xatalos. Please explain to me how I am bandwagoning onto Xatalos when I am the only person that is voting for him and the first person to outright say that he is scum (Kharad gave a very wishy-washy response where he said that Xatalos is slightly suspicious). On April 13 2012 06:47 BroodKingEXE wrote: Mafia look at the scum lists and figure out who has the best sense of who they are. They then kill them This is beyond dumb. Why would mafia kill people who appear scummy. That does not hurt town in any way. If anything it helps town, by narrowing down possible people to lynch. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On April 13 2012 06:49 Acrofales wrote: I think all our scum lists are quite similar at the moment. I have dittert as a scumspect and am not as suspicious of trumpetarm: I find dittert's few posts more suspect than trumpetarm's, who seems to at least be trying to contribute. Why do you say that trumpetarm's post contribute more than dittert's? All he's said was that the pressure votes were useless and that Xatalos may be town or sneaky mafia. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On April 13 2012 06:53 Acrofales wrote: All I got from your contributions to this game is a really incoherent summary of Xatalos' scummy behaviour and a vote. If that is your only suspect I am unimpressed. What do you think of BroodkingExe? He's a confident poster but I don't agree with his reads on Dittert or his views on sharing reads. Townlike posting - gives a read, backs it up with logic (even though I don't agree with it) and doesn't waffle around. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On April 13 2012 07:01 Xatalos wrote: Just my luck... Right as I post, HiroPro decides to suddenly post. Well, what do you think about my latest post, HiroPro? Am I still your only Mafia read? I like the case against vonKlaust a hell of a lot better than the one you made against ArticFox. The whole "i'm confused thing in the beginning is slightly scummy, but the bigger thing against vonKlaust for me is that he that he says that Xatalos has "several potential scumslips", is his prime suspect, but then doesn't vote for him. Someone who doesn't back up their scum reads with a vote is looking around for support too much to be town. ##Unvote: Xatalos ##Vote: vonKlaust | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On April 13 2012 07:08 BroodKingEXE wrote: This is what I am talking about. A Mafia could put their votes anywhere and change the tide of the vote. Dittert and trumpetarm please start to contribute to the discussion. Hiro I want to hear more about your vote against Xatalos Why does it matter if the votes can be shifted right now when the deadline is more than a day away? Votes will naturally consolidate as we get closer. My inital vote against Xatalos was because he made a bad case and appeared very contradictory with his posting. But I think his case against vonKlaust is strong and deserves attention. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On April 13 2012 07:32 vonKlaust wrote: + Show Spoiler + On April 13 2012 06:54 Xatalos wrote: Right now I'm leaning the most towards vonKlaust. Here are the parts of his posts I'm most suspicious about: + Show Spoiler + On April 12 2012 21:36 vonKlaust wrote: Ok, I must disappointedly admit that I feel pretty lost. So far I think most cases have felt a bit rushed, but I guess that could be because I'm simply not used to this kind of speculative reasoning. I do however think that Xatalos case on ArticFox seems to carry some truth. If I would have to vote right now, I would probably go with this. Both the blue-talk and the policy lynching-talk seems a bit odd. I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. I'm not quite as confident about this as Xatalos seems to be, but to me this seems to be the best analysis so far. This post is just... Very indecisive and unproductive. He tries to ride on his own newbieness/confusion without providing anything other than vague or pointless remarks. What is that part about ArcticFox's possible blue role even supposed to mean? Could it be that same Mafia slip I thought I already saw in ArcticFox's posts? On April 12 2012 23:24 vonKlaust wrote: Well, I AM confused. And I can agree that I come across as somebody who doesn't take solid stances. I don't know alot about this game, and I try to be humble to that fact. I say what I think, but you're likely not gonna see me write something like "I am perfectly comfident this is how we should play this game" or "I know for a fact that X is scum". That's just not how my brain works. Again he is trying to hide behind his confusion/newbieness. I find it suspicious how he keeps repeating how confused he is. Even if you are truly confused, why spend your energy explaining to others that you are a useless and confused townie? On April 13 2012 05:43 vonKlaust wrote: I still have a feeling that Dittert is just a confused townie. I think the whole RNG-thing have been blown out of proportions and I think his weak case against Willz might have been rushed since he felt pressured to contribute to the scumhunt. I'm unsure about Xatalos. While he have done a couple of potential scumslips he feels a tad to vocal for a mafia member. And those slips can just have been the result of bad reasoning, even though I doubt it. HiroPro also comes across as a bit suspiscious. The way he has just popped in a couple of times. Both of the times short after someone called him out as lurking. It makes me feel he is actively lurking. I would like HiroPro to write more, but for now I think I'll go with Xatalos as my prime suspect. That comment about Dittert being a "confused townie" adds fuel to the fire that you attempting to make "being confused" a state where everything is forgiven - there should never be free passes for being confused/newb, not for you, not for Dittert. I also have to wonder how I am now your "prime suspect", although earlier you jumped eagerly on my case against ArcticFox. You also mentioned ONLY me as your suspect, for some reason. I want to hear some reasonable excuse for this. Am I truly the biggest/only Mafia read you have so far for making a slightly faulty case to get things going? ##Unvote ##Vote: vonKlaust I just made a post about me acting indecisive and unproductive in the beginning of the game. While I'm sure it won't give you much comfort, since I basically agree that was the case, but that is the plain truth. You can find it here: + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14321898 This post is just... Very indecisive and unproductive. He tries to ride on his own newbieness/confusion without providing anything other than vague or pointless remarks. What is that part about ArcticFox's possible blue role even supposed to mean? Could it be that same Mafia slip I thought I already saw in ArcticFox's posts? You're really for jumping to conclussions aren't you? What I meant was exactly what i said: I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. To me, it seems more likely for a newbie mafia to write about blue roles than for a newbie blue. I wrote this to combat a possible argument against him being scum. How is this indecisive with what at the time were my suspicions? I basically agreed with what you were saying. Wouldn't that make you more of a scumslipper than me? That comment about Dittert being a "confused townie" adds fuel to the fire that you attempting to make "being confused" a state where everything is forgiven - there should never be free passes for being confused/newb, not for you, not for Dittert. I also have to wonder how I am now your "prime suspect", although earlier you jumped eagerly on my case against ArcticFox. You also mentioned ONLY me as your suspect, for some reason. I want to hear some reasonable excuse for this. Am I truly the biggest/only Mafia read you have so far for making a slightly faulty case to get things going? The fact that I called Dittert out as a confused townie don't have anything to do with that I felt very confused in the beginning of the game, except for the fact that I can understand how he would feel as a confused townie. Ofc I can have you as my prime suspect even though I(probably wrongly) supported your case against ArticFox. I can't see how you think that is wierd. At the time I didn't have anything on you, and I thought your claims were reasonable. Now, I have something on you, and I no longer think your claims were reasonable. See? And as I wrote in my post about you being my prime suspect: No, you're not my only suspect. I also pointed out HiroPro as someone I think is playing in a way which is very negative for town, which makes me suspect him. And also, as you would see if you would actually read my posts, my suspicions against you have nothing to do with your actual case against ArticFox. It was the fact that you tried to justify your case on other grounds than it being a good case. Also, I think that I have actually started to be much more productive than earlier. I'm getting more used to this, and now there is more to go on. I am the first to agree with that I wasn't very productive before. This is so contradictory. Why on earth would you support the case of the person who you most believe to be mafia??? | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
What actually happened: 1. Xatalos made a case. 2. I supported the case. 3. I no longer supported the case. 4. I started to susspect Xatalos. Alright, I see this. But if Xatalos is your main suspect, I'm still wondering why you never voted for him. And by the way: First you voted Xatalos. Later you wrote: Please explain to me how I am bandwagoning onto Xatalos when I am the only person that is voting for him and the first person to outright say that he is scum (Kharad gave a very wishy-washy response where he said that Xatalos is slightly suspicious). Then, without ever writing anything about that you're starting to doubt your suspicions or anything along those lines: ##Unvote: Xatalos ##Vote: vonKlaust Isn't this exactly what you're accusing me of? 1. Xatalos makes bad case. 2. I vote for Xatalos. 3. Broodking asks why I'm "bandwagoning Xatalos" (lololol) 4. I respond 5. Xatalos makes good case. 6. I trust Xatalos more and see similar suspicious behavior as Xatalos does in vonKaust. I vote for vonKlaust. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
Obviously if he posts an actual good case, he doesn't appear as mafia to me. And the case against you has merit. I would also still like to know why you never voted for Xatalos if he was your strongest mafia read. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
@HiroPro vonKlaust has a point, you were the only one of us to initially suspect Xatalos and voted so, but because you agree with his case towards vonKlaus now, you're willing to switch your vote and agree with the person you originally suspected? Also making a decision about lynching someone because he didn't or did vote his target is so arbitrarily illogical. Xatalos voted ArcticFox, now he's changing his vote, I voted for Xatalos because the case he made was bad. The case he made after that was good and showed me that he was reading and thinking things through. He also responded to my post against him and argued very clearly: On April 13 2012 02:35 Xatalos wrote: + Show Spoiler + I'm not really sure what to think of your case against me, HiroPro. Earlier KharadBanar made a weak case against me, which he admitted was weak, yet you make another weak case against me and then vote based on it... I can't see a sensible motivation for this no matter your alignment. Do you really think I'm the most suspicious player around or are you just trying to create chaos or something? Because no matter how I look at it, I have been the most contributive and aggressive Mafia-hunter so far. Let's see how your logic fails: On April 13 2012 01:16 HiroPro wrote: I don't like this case at all. You start off by saying ArticFox's posting reminds you of your own posting as mafia in AGOT - this has no relevance at all; ArticFox isn't you - meta from another game with someone else playing is an awful reason to think someone is mafia. And policy discussion that early on with very few people online is perfectly normal. You discredit my case just by saying that a metagame argument is bad. That's definitely false, since metagame is an important part of this game - but metagame is simply a part of my case, not even the most important part of it. I understand that a townie MIGHT play like I would play as Mafia, but it's much more likely that Mafia would play like I would play as Mafia. Understand this point? And more importantly: the several potential Mafia slips from ArcticFox are not condemning seperately, but when combined, they definitely don't paint a good picture of him. On April 13 2012 01:16 HiroPro wrote: Why the sudden shift in tone? A few posts ago, you were 70 or 80 percent sure that ArticFox is mafia, in this same post you say that either yomi or Dittert is mafia, and yet at the same time you have a hard time figuring out who mafia is? You sound like a mafia member getting a bandwagon rolling and then jumping off before it crashes. ##Vote: Xatalos I never said I have a hard time figuring out the Mafia. I only said I have a hard time figuring out the COMPLETE Mafia team, since many of my Mafia suspects are pushing (or at least fake pushing) for each others' lynching. When was I trying to "jump off a bandwagon"? It would be foolish to say ArcticFox is 100% Mafia, since there's no way to know that. I'm just saying he is my best Mafia read at the moment, followed by yomi and Dittert. I'm searching for material to make a second strong case from, but at the moment I'm not ready to push strongly for someone else than ArcticFox. Right now I want to hear more from you (HiroPro), willz22912 and Acrofales to improve my reads. You three have been at least semi-lurking so far... (I also want to correct one misconception about my wording. When I say someone is 50% suspicious, I think it's 50/50 (even) if he is town or Mafia. When I say someone is 70-80% suspicious, I think he is pretty likely to be Mafia. When I say someone is 95% suspicious, I think he's almost quaranteed to be Mafia.) I have never even voted someone even though I had plenty of cause to (dittert, xatalos for the same reasons you originally stated) It's better to be consistent with your vote, changing votes constantly is scummy behavior because it shows that you are just looking for the easy lynch. It's always better to put down your vote if your strongest mafia read changes. It shows that you're not afraid to have a record be kept of you reads and thoughts. Otherwise mafia can just switch around what they say without it ever being clear. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On April 13 2012 08:09 BroodKingEXE wrote: The problem I have with your case against Xatalos was that Xatalos never had the bandwagon to begin with. People saw it as pretty useless information after they reread it, and it was pretty much dead from there. I viewed it as pure misguided case, I am wondering what made it different for you? What makes you think that Xatalos is more scummy than Dittert per say? Obviously I don't still view Xatalos as a mafia read. The reason why I first thought that Xatalos was more scummy in comparison to people like Dittert, was that Xatalos was an experienced player; it seemed unlikely that he would make a bad case like that. This is Dittert's first game; I would expect him to say something silly early on (RNG voting). Since then he hasn't yet posted much; so I can't really give much of a view on Dittert. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On April 13 2012 08:19 vonKlaust wrote: I voted for HiroPro because he started to switch around the casuality. And his inconcistancy on changing suspects. On the matter of casuality he claimed: 1. I suspected Xatalos 2. I supported his case. What actually happened: 1. Xatalos made a case. 2. I supported the case. 3. I no longer supported the case. 4. I started to susspect Xatalos. As I wrote before, I can agree with that what he wrote isn't totally inconcistant, it's still wierd. I'm not trying to misrepresent what you said. I read your posts from the ones that Xatalos quoted (there was one post in which you said that you agreed with the case against ArticFox and another post that said that Xatalos was your biggest scum read) and assumed that they were all around the same time. That was my mistake. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
Ofc I can have you as my prime suspect even though I(probably wrongly) supported your case against ArticFox. I can't see how you think that is wierd. This sentence from you also lead me to believe that you had Xatalos as your prime suspect, while supporting the ArticFox case at the same time. If that's not what you meant, ok. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
##Unvote | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
Overall, I have a null read on willz; I don't like how he was so defensive about Dittert's vote on him (and the general weird interaction with him saying I'm just trying to help Dittert out), but at the same time he does post his opinions on other people and he has a general town demeanor by focusing on making/responding to cases. BroodKingEXE - Early on spent a lot of time discussing policy - not much to read into him from that portion of the day. Makes a vote on Dittert without much of a case (based on Dittert voting for lurkers, not really something that is overly scummy). Argument about hiding scum reads very anti-town in my opinion; without sharing those reads, town cannot make good votes. Don't really understand why he wanted to consolidate voting so early. Unvotes Dittert when Dittert starts posting again. Votes for willz saying that he is trying to shoot down other people's posts and is denying open discussion (very strange in my opinion because BroodKing himself posted something similar saying that people should not give out scum reads because mafia might kill them). Voting for yomi because he says he doesn't want mafia to switch and swing the vote (even though he says that he believes willz is more likely to be scum). Scum read on BroodKing overall - I don't like the posts where he says not to share scum reads. The vote and case on willz is very strange, since a lot of the things he accusses willz of are similar to what BroodKing himself has been doing, and I don't really understand the vote switch onto yomi - to me it seems more like BroodKing was worried that willz was looking townie to other people and thus switched to a new target. yomi - A lot of yomi's posting seems to be calling out various people as mafia without providing solid reasoning. I don't agree with vote on Dittert (Dittert seems much more like new town to me than mafia (RNG proposal is not really something to lynch over). Talking about ignoring various people in the thread because he doesn't like them is not town behavior at all. Yomi is scummy in my opinion. ##Vote: BroodKingEXE | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
I saw a post saying that they think KharadBanar is mafia because he seems a lot less useful than he was in Newbie Mini Mafia VI. I don't really agree with this - if you look at Kharad's filter from day 1 in Newbie Mini Mafia VI, if anything it's more useless as he spent a lot of it talking about policy and some random personality questionnaire that FourFace came up. It doesn't really seem very different from this game with the sole big difference I see being that in this game, Kharad provided 3 scum reads that he had fairly early on, while he did nothing of the sort in Mini VI and instead stayed focused on either voting a lurker (early on day 1) or voting for the person he thought more scummy of the two biggest vote-getters (later in day 1). Nothing from KharadBanar so far leads me to believe that he is scum. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On April 12 2012 15:57 Xatalos wrote: + Show Spoiler + On April 12 2012 08:58 ArcticFox wrote: I hope our blues this game are as clever as you were that game, KB. Discussion is good. Idle chat is not. As you newer people confirm, please post shortly after with your thoughts on these policies as well. First of all: why discuss about blue roles at all? This is the same mistake I did in A Game of Thrones Mafia - we kept talking about blue roles in the Mafia chat, so subconsciously I mentioned possibilities about the blue roles even in the normal thread. And what do you mean with "idle chat is not good"? So far this "idle chat" has been very useful (certainly much more useful than silence or the trolling/flaming we had in A Game of Thrones Mafia...). Also, you keep mentioning policies, which is something Mafia loves to do - you can appear somewhat useful without actually contributing anything. + Show Spoiler + On April 12 2012 09:21 ArcticFox wrote: Verrrrry WIFOM reasoning. Be careful of that. It sounds logical, but discussing motive rarely leads anywhere. What if scum decides to bus? What if someone jumps up to defend because they think RNG is silly, or they have a blue read on him? This line of reasoning leads nowhere fast, and it's best to ignore it. You're tripping my scum-o-meter pretty hard right now. Got any better suggestions? There he goes again, talking about blue roles. It's too bad it probably ends now after I mention this, but I would have wanted to see how many times he can talk about blue roles / blue reads during the game, since this is the second time already in only 7 hours... On April 13 2012 02:51 Xatalos wrote: Talking about policy lynches or blue roles isn't Mafia-like only because of my metagame experiences - it's universally not something town SHOULD be doing. In the beginning of the game, Xatalos made a case against ArticFox based on his discussion of blues and policy lynching. But if you look at Xatalos's posting on the first night, almost all of it is concentrated around telling blues to perform certain actions: + Show Spoiler + On April 14 2012 08:39 Xatalos wrote: I'm not sure if all the roles are included in this game (?), but here are some suggestions for night actions: Vigilante: yomi (this I have explained before) Jailer: Xatalos (I may not be a veteran, but at least I'm active and a threatening presence for Mafia, so I wouldn't be surprised if they chose to shoot me tonight) Detective: don't want to suggest anything for you, since there is a Framer Doctor: hmm... I don't have extreme confidence in anyone being town right now, but maybe Acrofales, vonKlaust, KharadBanar or Willz - none of them really strike me as Mafia at the moment If nothing else, this list will at least create some WIFOM to make Mafia's night actions harder. Good night! On April 14 2012 15:19 Xatalos wrote: Dittert suggested a Vigi shot on you, which I might find a good idea in other circumstances, but I'm willing to see more from you (your later play on Day 1 was very pro-town, while yomi hasn't played pro-town so far). And a yomi Vigi shot will likely give us more information than shooting you + if yomi gets lynched tomorrow anyway, it's pointless to waste a day on him rather than shooting him now. On April 14 2012 19:24 Xatalos wrote: I wonder why this thread got so silent while I was sleeping. Acrofales, Willz, I'm most interested in hearing your thoughts about the Willz/yomi/BroodKing lynch event and what should be done next (Mafia reads, town reads, anything). Do you agree with Vigi shooting yomi or not? On April 14 2012 21:07 Xatalos wrote: I hope the Jailer jails me though. It's a win-win for me: I can't die, and it's proved I am not a Mafia Goon (Roleblocker and Framer are harder to prove being roleblocked during the night, but if for example the Framer is lynched and it gets revealed later someone was roleblocked tonight, I'm already confirmed then - and even if I were to be Framer, then it is clear that the Detective's investigations can be trusted - I really can't see a reason not to jail me). I agree with the Vigilante saying out loud his target at the deadline. He only has one shot, so he's just a vanilla townie after that (no point for Mafia to roleblock him anymore) AND then he is confirmed town (unless Mafia would take a HUGE risk and pretend being Vigilante like that). Shooting yomi goes a bit against this, though, because it's easier to pretend being Vigilante now... But I definitely don't think it's worth it to shoot someone else just because of that. Blue roles work best when town doesn't know what they are going to do or who they are; the risk from mafia hits or roleblocks is too high. But yet Xatalos continued to push attempts to direct blue roles and figure out other people's opinions on their actions. When you combine this with his sudden reversal on whether or not to discuss blue roles, it's scummy as hell. The Distraction Factor When you look at Xatalos's posting, it's all over the place. Irrelevant comparisions to a previous mafia game he played, superficial reads on pretty much every person in the game, suggestions on perhaps "lynching for information", constant speculation on well "if this person is mafia/town, then...". These kind of posts appear to be pro-town, when all they really accomplish is crowding out actual analysis and arguments. Xatalos's goal isn't to find out who mafia is, it's to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that he thinks town would be willing to follow through on. That's why in the beginning of the game, Xatalos made numerous posts where he would declare a different primary lynch target and then along with that, provide a list of 3-4 other names who he was willing to lynch. On April 12 2012 16:17 Xatalos wrote: People I'm fine with lynching right now: ArcticFox, Dittert, yomi, imallinson. I'm pretty sure at least 1-2 of these players are Mafia. If you four want to clear yourselves in my eyes, something major needs to happen. I suggest everyone to read my case on ArcticFox and vote for him. I'd put his chances of being Mafia at 70-80%, which is extremely high for me considering it's this early. I also want to see his response, though, but I don't know what would convince me otherwise at this point (I guess an EVEN stronger Mafia read on someone else, which isn't an easy feat to achieve!). On April 12 2012 18:18 Xatalos wrote: Actually, KharadBanar's fake pressure voting is the exact same tactic I used in A Game of Thrones as Mafia. Thanks for pointing that out, Acrofales. It definitely casts doubt on him, so I wouldn't be against lynching him. Still, he's not the best lynch target for now. I say ArcticFox and Dittert are our best Mafia reads at the moment. Anyone else want to vote? ##Vote: Xatalos | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On April 15 2012 19:06 Xatalos wrote: + Show Spoiler + On April 15 2012 11:13 HiroPro wrote: The Blue Shift In the beginning of the game, Xatalos made a case against ArticFox based on his discussion of blues and policy lynching. But if you look at Xatalos's posting on the first night, almost all of it is concentrated around telling blues to perform certain actions: + Show Spoiler + On April 14 2012 08:39 Xatalos wrote: I'm not sure if all the roles are included in this game (?), but here are some suggestions for night actions: Vigilante: yomi (this I have explained before) Jailer: Xatalos (I may not be a veteran, but at least I'm active and a threatening presence for Mafia, so I wouldn't be surprised if they chose to shoot me tonight) Detective: don't want to suggest anything for you, since there is a Framer Doctor: hmm... I don't have extreme confidence in anyone being town right now, but maybe Acrofales, vonKlaust, KharadBanar or Willz - none of them really strike me as Mafia at the moment If nothing else, this list will at least create some WIFOM to make Mafia's night actions harder. Good night! On April 14 2012 15:19 Xatalos wrote: Dittert suggested a Vigi shot on you, which I might find a good idea in other circumstances, but I'm willing to see more from you (your later play on Day 1 was very pro-town, while yomi hasn't played pro-town so far). And a yomi Vigi shot will likely give us more information than shooting you + if yomi gets lynched tomorrow anyway, it's pointless to waste a day on him rather than shooting him now. On April 14 2012 19:24 Xatalos wrote: I wonder why this thread got so silent while I was sleeping. Acrofales, Willz, I'm most interested in hearing your thoughts about the Willz/yomi/BroodKing lynch event and what should be done next (Mafia reads, town reads, anything). Do you agree with Vigi shooting yomi or not? On April 14 2012 21:07 Xatalos wrote: I hope the Jailer jails me though. It's a win-win for me: I can't die, and it's proved I am not a Mafia Goon (Roleblocker and Framer are harder to prove being roleblocked during the night, but if for example the Framer is lynched and it gets revealed later someone was roleblocked tonight, I'm already confirmed then - and even if I were to be Framer, then it is clear that the Detective's investigations can be trusted - I really can't see a reason not to jail me). I agree with the Vigilante saying out loud his target at the deadline. He only has one shot, so he's just a vanilla townie after that (no point for Mafia to roleblock him anymore) AND then he is confirmed town (unless Mafia would take a HUGE risk and pretend being Vigilante like that). Shooting yomi goes a bit against this, though, because it's easier to pretend being Vigilante now... But I definitely don't think it's worth it to shoot someone else just because of that. Blue roles work best when town doesn't know what they are going to do or who they are; the risk from mafia hits or roleblocks is too high. But yet Xatalos continued to push attempts to direct blue roles and figure out other people's opinions on their actions. When you combine this with his sudden reversal on whether or not to discuss blue roles, it's scummy as hell. The Distraction Factor When you look at Xatalos's posting, it's all over the place. Irrelevant comparisions to a previous mafia game he played, superficial reads on pretty much every person in the game, suggestions on perhaps "lynching for information", constant speculation on well "if this person is mafia/town, then...". These kind of posts appear to be pro-town, when all they really accomplish is crowding out actual analysis and arguments. Xatalos's goal isn't to find out who mafia is, it's to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that he thinks town would be willing to follow through on. That's why in the beginning of the game, Xatalos made numerous posts where he would declare a different primary lynch target and then along with that, provide a list of 3-4 other names who he was willing to lynch. ##Vote: Xatalos Alright... I can't say your case doesn't have some merit, but I have to disagree with some points. Also, I'm glad you actually made a thought-out case against me (compared to the lackluster case you made earlier). 1) I was certainly somewhat over-analyzing blue/policy talk in the beginning (for partly meta reasons), but you have to consider that there wasn't much else suspicious going on at that point. It was the MOST suspicious thing I saw happening at the time, so although talking about policy lynching or blue roles early on Day 1 isn't the best Mafia tell, it was something to start with and possibly force Mafia slips (either from the target, from the people jumping on the bandwagon or from the people defending the target). I may have used some excessively strong words against ArcticFox for example, but pressure isn't really pressure if I just vaguely say "you might be a bit suspicious" or something, right? If I had to lynch at that exact moment, I would have lynched ArcticFox because nothing more suspicious had been said yet (in my opinion), but my opinion on him started to slowly shift and was pretty much a townie read during the night. 2) Speculating about blue powers may not be nearly as useful as talking about Mafia reads (and it would certainly be something easy for Mafia to talk about), but I did that for a couple of reasons. A) I wanted to get yomi Vigi shot to kill my strongest Mafia read right away and to resolve the doubt surrounding the events of Day 1. B) I wanted to ensure both I and Acrofales would live to see Day 2: I don't know if there is both a Jailer and a Doctor, but I figured Mafia wouldn't dare to shoot either me or Acrofales after I made that open suggestion. The Jailer and/or Doctor could then freely heal whoever they liked, and I and Acrofales would be most likely protected by the sheer fear of the Mafia to prevent wasting their valuable KP. The longer the game goes on, the better for town, so not getting to kill anyone is a hard blow for Mafia (even the risk of it would make them think twice before shooting me or Acrofales). 3) My play has been quite "all over the place" and a bit spammy, and I can try to post less and with more certainty, but I don't feel like it's a good idea to just wait until there is a very strong case able to be made. If we just wait in silence while nobody says matters of relevance, or anything, waiting for a really strong suspicion before saying anything... Mafia could just play passive and do nothing noticeable. There even was something like this in a guide: "Polite and careful play is the downfall of many town teams." The same can be said for spam, of course, and maybe I have been a bit too much on the side of aggression and spam. But I still feel like it's better than to wait in silence and only post when you have a very solid case against someone (where would that case be made from, if everyone just talked politely and never started accusing each other?). I have also one other thing to say. I know this might seem weird, but I came up with a theory about why Willz and yomi could both well be town. I was most suspicious of yomi as I went to sleep, but as I was waking up I came up with a theory I feel could potentially make a lot of sense. I don't want to say it out loud yet, though (I have a good reason, but if there is a lot of demand, I can do it... although I don't know if it's a wise move right now). Considering the chance yomi is town, I'm not absolutely sure who I would want to push for now. Dittert has definitely been useless, but IF he flips town, we are in a pretty bad spot (his town flip would reveal pretty much nothing new, and only his Mafia flip would be useful for us). So this is a play I would call as "high risk, high reward". On the other hand, I wouldn't definitely want to have someone like Dittert with me in a lategame situation of 3 town & 2 Mafia, for example. So his lynch isn't a total waste in any case, although it would only give new information in case he flipped Mafia. Since I don't have a very strong Mafia read at the moment, I might as well also vote for Dittert and hope for the best.... ##Vote: Dittert This post is a sham. Xatalos offers absolutely no explanation for the discrepancy between him making a case on ArcticFox based on talking about blues and then trying to direct and control blue actions himself at night (other than some bs about oh well you know it wasn't the best or most useful thing i could have done. but you know it was good it was good i tell you). He makes a vote switch from yomi to Dittert because he's scared that there's an actual case on him, so he needs to focus attention on an easy target to lynch (Notice how he doesn't base his vote switch on actual reads or reasoning; it's just bs about how "oh this will probably gives us better info"). And now a guy who was acting so cocky and confident early on is like "oh yeah i made mistakes, my credibility dropped, but still guys you gotta trust me just because). Xatalos is mafia. Do not let him escape. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
Lynch Xatalos. Easy step. Obviously you do that first thing in the daytime. Don't listen to anything he has to say. Don't address him or tell him anything; just lynch him. DO NOT LISTEN TO WHAT ACROFALES SAYS. I know many of you have Acrofales as a very strong town read. I don't; Acrofales has been a scum read in my notes since day 1. I don't have the time to fully outline a case against Acrofales, but I'll try to summarize my thoughts here. Read through his filter closely. Acrofales does not post actual analysis; instead what he does is call out certain people who are not posting and then proceed to make "connections" between certain people who he will arbitrarily label as scummy. By basing all of his cases on these "connections", Acrofales avoids taking responsibility for votes and reads. Everything is already set out for him and indisputable. These connection posts do not help town; all they do is get people speculating on which people are sided with certain other people and thus must be either both town or both mafia. It distracts from actual reads and scum-hunting. This guy's role is the deceiver. I have no clear reads on the third mafia member (and the small reads I can post on the people I have not mentioned are not worth posting). Good luck searching for him. If you think there is some sort of connection between myself and Dittert (aka been listening too much to Acrofales/yomi), get rid of that thought. My flip shows absolutely nothing about Dittert - I have no connection whatsoever to him. He is neither strongly town nor strongly mafia in my view. That being said, I have a slight town read on him. Ignore the first 2 days and evaluate him based on what you see in the coming day/night period. DO NOT LYNCH HIM TOMORROW IF FOR SOME REASON YOU THINK HE IS MAFIA (Lynch Xatalos, then Acrofales). DO NOT LYNCH FOR INFORMATION. Focus on what people say, how they say it, and go with your strongest mafia read. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
 i ran out of timegogo town | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
 Are we going to get a list of the final standings for that? | ||
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