EPTNewbie Mini Mafia VIII - Page 6
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Xatalos
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##FOS: HiroPro I'm surprised to see nobody has really talked about my earlier analysis post during this time. Most of all I want to hear your opinions about it: Acrofales, KharadBanar, vonKlaust. You three are nearly confirmed townies in my mind, and have all proved yourselves to be quite useful this game, so I put the most weight in your words at the moment. I'd also like to see how some of my Mafia read targets could counter that post. On April 16 2012 13:44 Dittert wrote: I really want to hear a theory and a reason that doesn't involve you claiming DT, because if you've blueslipped here, the mafia will surely kill you tonight. The last thing the town needs is a dead DT. It was just a failed theory based on yomi being Doctor and Willz town, but since I completely misunderstood yomi's post and thought Doctors could heal themselves, it looked like it made a lot of sense at first. I didn't want to reveal this theory not because I had checked yomi's alignment, but because if I was right, yomi would probably be the next night hit target (roleblock+KP). However, since this theory was a complete failure, it doesn't hurt to say it now... | ||
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On April 16 2012 14:29 Acrofales wrote: Xatalos on the other hand is just digging his hole deeper. I want to hear why you think I'm more suspicious after posting my complete Mafia/town reads, even though you found my stupid yomi theory as unsuspicious? I really want to hear your opinion about my post, but I don't count this post as much of an opinion... (other than "your post sucks") | ||
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On April 16 2012 12:04 funcmode wrote: OK, a powercut just caused me to lose what was becoming a rather epic post.. it's now quite late so I'll do my best to rewrite as best I can. The people I'm most suspicious of; Xatalos: Very hard to get a conclusive read on this guy, as others have noted there seems to be a lot of clutter without much focus. I get the impression he's trying hard to come across as very active and pro-town, trying very hard to avoid the typical stereotypes associated with mafia when in fact the opposite could very well be the truth. Dittert: His actions since facing the brunt of the accusations/votes suggest to me that he is in fact a townie, but suspicion is still very high regardless - though a lot of it seems to stem from his initial RNG lynch proposal, which I don't think is much to really go on. Accepting 'defeat' and self-voting in the manner in which he did leads me to believe he's actually a townie who no longer feels he has the credibility to defend himself, though I would by no means be surprised if he is scum. imallinson: Gives me a scummy vibe. Seems to not really push any agenda's but has a sensible, logical opinion of events as they transpire. Although his post count isn't low he still comes across as quiet and wanting to avoid attention. Agrees early on with Xatalos. Semi-suspicious; willz: Had an integral role in the first lynching, the victim of which was quite suspicious of willz to begin with. Comes across as very defensive but not necessarily pro-town. Yomi: Seems to be a driving force and is regularly close to the centre of events. Does a solid job of defending himself when required (often). His motives when posting though appear genuinely pro-town. He seems at odds with a lot of the other high-suspicion players which I think gives him some credit. HiroPro: Quite quiet except in self-defence. Lots of focus on other people's discrepancies - but seems convinced Xatalos is scum, which if true could do a lot to clear his name. Least suspicious; vonKlaust: Genuinely pro-town. Hasn't done much if at all to make me suspicious except perhaps blend in quite well. KharadBanar: Objective and again genuinely pro-town. Not much to really say here right now. Acrofales: Open, transparent, fact-focused. The least suspicious. Right now my vote is a toss-up between Xatalos and Dittert. I wouldn't feel comfortable voting on anyone else at this point. I can't shake the feeling that Dittert may still be town, so I'm reserving some judgment on him for when he next posts. I'm going to have to end it there for now (just clocked 4AM here). I apologise to those of you who were probably expecting something far more thorough and decisive, hopefully now that I'm an active part in the discussion and not a bystander I can be more helpful and contribute more. But for now; ##Vote: Xatalos Nice to see you posting at last. I agree with most of your reads (although not about myself of course...), but there really isn't too much content in this post, not even as much as in my latest Mafia/town read post. I want to ask a couple of questions: A) Why do you think I lack focus, when I have actually tunneled most of the game (ArcticFox, yomi) and almost completely focused on Mafia reads? B) Why is it suspicious to be "active and pro-town"? It's just WIFOM to think Mafia's strategy would be to appear as pro-town as possible, considering it's an extremely difficult lie to keep up and bound to fail at some point. | ||
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On April 16 2012 04:20 KharadBanar wrote: I'm slowly really starting to believe Xatalos is scum over Dittert. ##Unvote ##Vote: Xatalos Update on my Scummiest Players List: 1. Xatalos 2. Dittert 3. yomi 4. willz22912 There really isn't any kind of an explanation of why your opinion changed? I conclude it's because of my stupid/failure post about yomi "healing himself", but even Acrofales said there was no Mafia motivation behind it, so I don't really understand the reason your opinion changed from me being #3/#4 Mafia to suddenly #1 Mafia with such a stupid reason. | ||
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On April 16 2012 06:01 vonKlaust wrote: And I’m perfectly aware of this, but this does not really answer me. The problem is that he is overconfident in his reads, and suffers from severe confirmation bias. Since Xatalos have not yet started to act on my and others advice to start to take it a bit easy on the accusations and stop to tunnel people I’m starting to lean towards scummyness. His play just doesn’t make sense to me. Wouldn't you agree that I have been less tunneling today than before? I have focused more broadly and also considered Dittert and HiroPro as top targets for lynching. Also, aggression and tunneling isn't necessarily a Mafia trait: I see no reason to push so hard for a specific target as Mafia, since that would just make you A) suspicious if he flips town or B) the target unsuspicious if you yourself flip Mafia. Too much risk for too little reward, especially considering that aggression doesn't necessarily make a good town impression of yourself either... | ||
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On April 16 2012 02:52 willz22912 wrote: @ Acrofales You're the one who made the case against me stick, not Dittert, and a lot of that was due to me OMGUSing Dittert during the night. If I kept my mouth shut against Dittert and not let him get to me, what would your case consist of? You say you dislike connection play because it induces WIFOM, but can you really explain the motivations between myself and Dittert without it? I'm not "soft defending Dittert" I really have no clue as to what the hell his motivations are for playing this game and posting the way he has. I am making the argument that lynching Dittert now wouldn't really give us as much information compared to lynching someone else (see the post I made with my list of outcomes) Would you not agree that lynching someone who clammed up isn't as helpful as someone who tried to push cases on a lot of people without weight? Here, just so my opinion is clear: ##Vote: Xatalos I don't really get this... Lynching me just because it would give good information, even though you don't believe I am the most likely Mafia, or possibly even Mafia at all? I'm willing to believe this isn't a serious vote, but if it is, I need to reconsider my opinion of you... | ||
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On April 16 2012 07:04 HiroPro wrote: This post is a sham. Xatalos offers absolutely no explanation for the discrepancy between him making a case on ArcticFox based on talking about blues and then trying to direct and control blue actions himself at night (other than some bs about oh well you know it wasn't the best or most useful thing i could have done. but you know it was good it was good i tell you). He makes a vote switch from yomi to Dittert because he's scared that there's an actual case on him, so he needs to focus attention on an easy target to lynch (Notice how he doesn't base his vote switch on actual reads or reasoning; it's just bs about how "oh this will probably gives us better info"). And now a guy who was acting so cocky and confident early on is like "oh yeah i made mistakes, my credibility dropped, but still guys you gotta trust me just because). Xatalos is mafia. Do not let him escape. Since I think you are more probably Mafia than town, I'm not going to spend as much effort in convincing you (you wouldn't likely change your vote anyway if you were Mafia - with such an easy way to save Dittert, a Mafia teammate or a harmless townie). I have to try, though. Okay, so you're suspicious of my hypocrisy about blue talk instead of the act of blue talk itself. However, you fail to see one thing: I haven't fished for blues or speculated about people's roles (outside of yomi, which was a total failure anyway and can't be considered a serious post at this point). The one thing I have done is directing blue roles, which might not usually be the best idea, but consider a couple of points: A) this is a newbie game, you can't count on the blues to know what they're doing B) even if the blues don't obey my direction, it would be now impossible for Mafia to kill either me or Acrofales without taking a huge risk. I don't think this was a very suspicious move, especially considering a lot of others suggested to shoot yomi as well (and some also to heal Acrofales). What do you mean I switched to yomi only to gather better information? You could say that about Willz's vote on me, but definitely not about my vote on Dittert. I specifically stated that lynching Dittert would provide less information than lynching yomi, so your point is completely invalid. I might have been a bit overconfident at the start because of how well my previous game went, but I still think I was somewhat reasonable in my accusations, even if I sometimes made mistakes with logical conclusions. If nothing else, my ArcticFox case generated a lot of reactions (bandwagon-jumping, refusal, ignoring) which could be analyzed later. Nothing much came out of my imallinson case, but HiroPro immediately jumped on vonKlaust, making me believe they are town&town or Mafia&town, but likely not Mafia&Mafia. My yomi case was even more succesful in pushing discussion and getting a wide scale of reactions from different people. This can all be used well if we get to see yomi's flip at some point. I don't think it's suspicious to say I'm sad about my stupidity with yomi's post, since it was totally unnecessary after all. However, looking back on it, it might not have been such a bad thing after all. Now, instead of a massive Dittert bandwagon, we have a bandwagon on both me and Dittert. This is a LOT more useful for analyzing people's behaviour later than if everyone had just voted for Dittert. In case I don't get lynched, it was actually a "good" move to make that stupid post earlier. | ||
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On April 16 2012 15:17 Dittert wrote: Acro - Like I said before, I don't really have too much of an idea about who is the 3rd mafia. My best guess right now is Xatalos, mostly because of this lie/misdirect: ArcticFox hardly mentions me and I don't think even mentions HiroPro at all (or maybe early on). If you read his filter and deduce these mafia reads, you need to go back to... reading school? He's also in here now completely shitting up the thread, drowning out what seems to be us on the right track. I'm curious to see why you're so suspicious of him as well. That being said, I could see it being one of these other people who are just not posting very much. I don't post that much, but I think by now most people can see my clear thought pattern since day one (okay, even if you don't think I'm thinking clearly, I'm at least being hyper-consistent). I read a lot of other people's filters and just kind of shrug. I referred to ArcticFox's latest Mafia read post before his death: On April 15 2012 07:12 ArcticFox wrote: For my vig target? There's at least 5 people who I could make a reasonable case for shooting right now, for either lurking, being highly suspected as scum, or posting just stupid shit over and over again. That's what's so terrible, especially in light of gaining no real information from the lynch -- there are SO many people with scum behavior it's actually impossible to tell. We don't have 1 or 2 good targets, we have more targets than actual mafia that exist. =/ Yes, yomi's on the list, but so are people like HiroPro and Dittert. I couldn't even really argue against a vigi hit on willz. The fact that the list is so large at all is what sucks. We need the entire town to be more active and more focused in the scumhunting. The random fingerpointing, the rage, the WIFOMing, the confusion, and the horrific logic jumps are doing nothing but making our job harder. I also don't know what you're saying with that he never suspected you, since he dedicated a whole post for your FOS: On April 14 2012 22:55 ArcticFox wrote: Xatalos....please...for all our sakes, slow down your posting. Stop typing. No, I know you're already formulating a response to this before you're at the end of this sentence. Stop. Go back. Read your filter. Every single one of your posts has been either a parroted argument that someone else has already made, or a case full of so many logical fallacies and leaps that it's a wonder how you ever got there in the first place. Posting a list of blue actions is not even relevant. Blues should already know what they're going to do. Having different targets for Jail/Doc in a semi-open setup where you don't even know if both roles exist (and likely don't both exist unless scum got some powerful roles too) is a headscratcher too. Beyond this, you gave no real reasoning as to *why* those should be people's choices. "Oh, I post a lot and I'm obviously town, because I say I am." is your whole reasoning to be protected. Yomi as vig shot is because "he's a distraction" -- as much of a distraction as dittert? Or even willz at this point? Yomi and willz are at about the same level in my mind -- why yomi over willz other than your "I'm sure that willz is town and yomi is mafia," statement? It's as poor as the rest of your logic. I know you're trying to contribute, but your posting is all over the place. If I were on the scum team and you are actually town, you're exactly the kind of town I'd *want* to keep alive. Slow down, and think calmly before you post. Is this argument sound? Does it have a solid counterargument? etc. Yomi is actually starting to make a little more sense to me as this goes on. He's been really the only one who's been saying Dittert is actually scum -- I've hinted at it, Acro and imallinson's FoS'd him, but yomi's been all over it since early day 1. Imallinson makes a big list of things picking apart Dittert's post, but the most damning things about it just scream scum to me. First, his sudden change in tone from a meek, clueless, "is this ok?" style of posting to suddenly: Willz was jumped all over for rabidly defending himself when accused, and suddenly switching from seeming helpful to getting aggressive. Dittert has done the exact same thing. Day 1, we HAVE no facts to go with. We are interpreting everything that every person posts, and we have to determine which posts feel the most scummy and run with those reads. To insinuate that you, or I, or anyone else in this game is doing something different is insulting and distracting. The first actual clue we have is "BroodKingEXE is town." Now we get to go back through BroodKing's filter and see what it means. In about 9 hours, we'll have 1 or 2 more people dead, and we'll go through *those* filters, and people who have posted about them, and start to put them together. Saying "I was right about Brood, he was town, therefore I'm right and listen to me!" is awful logic. Go back and read the posts. Before Brood made what everyone can agree is the dumbest play of the game, nobody was voting for Brood. Even willz had taken his vote off of Brood and voted for yomi. We were convinced that one of those two were scum, and at worst we'd have more information today, and only something extremely large happening could take us off of that focus. Brood did exactly that, and that's the only reason he's dead. If he'd kept his mouth shut and kept his vote on willz, even *if* some people had jumped from yomi to willz at the last minute, we'd still have more information. yomi was up 5 votes to 4 and set to be lynched. The play made 0 sense. It still doesn't. That's why I got so pissed and left my computer last night. We gained almost nothing from a brood lynch except "well...Brood played badly." The sudden change in tone, the constant horrible logic, and the playing of the noob card for far too long. It's time people started watching you. ##FoS: Dittert You're either lying or misunderstanding ArcticFox greatly... | ||
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- ArcticFox (now a confirmed townie) ---> Xatalos (a confirmed townie for myself, although I can't prove it without being killed, and I'm not willing to do that just to prove Dittert's very likely maliciousness...) - Willz (a quite likely townie in my eyes, although I dislike him wanting to lynch me only to gather information) - yomi (suspicious & an easy target, yet most likely town if Dittert is Mafia) Do you see a trend? It seems entirely possible to me that every one of Dittert's Mafia reads are actually town (at least everyone can agree ArcticFox is, and I can know about myself)... Especially if he himself is Mafia, in which case yomi is quite redeemed for tunneling him all game. If we assume Dittert is Mafia, I think the complete Mafia team is this: - Dittert - HiroPro - Funcmode/imallinson I don't know why the discussion died completely, but I'm still awaiting responses to the posts I earlier addressed to everyone voting for me right now. If you read my response to your personal accusation, then read my other posts today and still think I'm Mafia, please post why and I'll try to answer you as well as I can. | ||
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I feel quite bad that my downfall (and the downfall of town probably because of this) is because of something similarly stupid as with BroodKing. We both did a well-intentioned, yet malicious-looking action that lead to a crushing lynch. Worst of all, this lynch doesn't reveal anything of the alignments, since pretty much everyone voted for me. At least my flip will reveal something about the events of Day 1. Draw your own conclusions from what I have done in this game and what has been done to me. I doubt town can win anymore, but there is at least a small hope for that, so I'll cheer you on from the obs chat. Now I'm going to karate for a couple of hours and then I'll drive home and study for a few hours (doing one assignment that has to be done for tomorrow). I can probably check on the thread a couple of times before deadline, but I'm not going to stop wasting my efforts on trying to achieve a better chance of victory. I won't go as far as voting for myself, though, since miracles might happen yet. It's unfortunate that this stupidity is my own fault, just as with BroodKing. Next time I play town I'm going to play much more carefully and passively, trying to avoid such mistakes. Just as a reminder: I'm 99% certain there is a Mafia or two within the group of Dittert, yomi and HiroPro. None of them have played pro-town, all of them have lurked for extended periods, all of them were mentioned as good Vigi shots by ArcticFox. At the moment I'm leaning Dittert+HiroPro and my secondary guess is yomi. For town reads: I bet there is at most one Mafia in the group of Acrofales, KharadBanar, vonKlaust, Willz. Funcmode and imallinson read as slightly suspicious for me. I await eagerly to see the obs and Mafia chats for this game. Good luck town - there is still some hope for victory, at least if the most useful players get Doctored while attempted to be shot or something similar! | ||
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Why Am I Town? I'm the first to admit I have had many faults, the greatest of which are these: - Tunnel Vision: ignoring a lot of stuff, especially alternative explanations for events (such as yomi voting for Willz to save himself not being a Mafia-specific action) - Confirmation Bias: focusing on proving myself right more than on finding the truth (I had a pretty hard time letting go off my ArcticFox suspicions, although my reasons for suspecting him weren't very good to begin with) - Paranoia: mentioning every little suspicious detail from pretty much every player so far (I even mentioned specifically Acrofales for lurking the Day 1 lynch, although he was far from the only lurker in that situation and wasn't even otherwise suspicious at all) - Stupidity: misunderstanding rules, posts and even pronouns (my greatest moment of stupidity was thinking yomi claimed doctor while he was just talking in general) Through these faults I have caused anti-town atmosphere, which is an understandable reason to believe I would be Mafia. But I want you to take a moment and consider: is that the only explanation? - Tunnel Vision is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia would be happy to lynch any townie, not a specific townie - Confirmation Bias is plausibly a Mafia trait, since Mafia know the roles of everyone and thus want to prove themselves right instead of finding the truth - Paranoia is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia don't have any need to be suspicious of their fellow players or to gather too much attention - Stupidity is neither a town or Mafia trait In conclusion, only one of the reasons for my sometimes anti-town play is a Mafia trait. Even so, it's not exclusively a Mafia trait, but rather a trait of a person emotional about something (in this case, lynching Mafia). Now, what pro-town have I done to redeem these faults? - Activity: I have posted a lot, more than anyone else - perhaps not as much useful content as Acrofales or KharadBanar, but definitely among the most even in that category - Transparency: I have been like an open book, giving my opinion on everything without hesitation, never being afraid of suspicious slips or being proved wrong in the end - Focus on Mafia Hunting: most of my posts consist of accusing a player, noticing suspicious behaviour, giving my Mafia reads, demanding explanations, demanding activity or analyzing possible Mafia&Mafia / town & Mafia / town & town interactions between two players All of my anti-town plays are (at least somewhat) explainable from a town perspective, but are these pro-town plays explainable from a Mafia perspective? - Activity is definitely not a Mafia trait: Mafia would prefer to fly under the radar and plan inside their own chat, not to be on the spotlight of the discussion all the time - Transparency is the opposite of a Mafia trait: Mafia would never want to give more information and thoughts to the discussion than necessary - Focus on Mafia Hunting is again the opposite of a Mafia trait: Mafia want to delay and distract Mafia hunting, not to focus on it in their own posting So none of these pro-town plays are really explainable from a Mafia perspective. Of course Mafia would love to look as pro-town as possible, but not at the cost of losing the game because of it. Willingness to establish your innocence at the cost of advancing town agenda and probably having to bus your teammates along the way is not strong Mafia play - it's ineffective Mafia play. Who To Lynch? Earlier I mentioned my confidence in either Dittert, yomi or HiroPro being Mafia. I have been looking through their filters a bit and come to the conclusion that the most likely Mafia would actually be HiroPro. yomi has had both anti-town and pro-town plays, and Dittert... He hasn't really played pro-town at all, but his tunneling and going against the flow of the thread could be just dumb town play... Or he could be the teammate of HiroPro. I'm not saying either Dittert or yomi is a town read for me, but I can't find likely explanations for many of HiroPro's plays from a town perspective. On April 13 2012 08:17 HiroPro wrote: I voted for Xatalos because the case he made was bad. The case he made after that was good and showed me that he was reading and thinking things through. First of all, why would making a bad case be lynch-worthy? It's actually more likely for townies than Mafia to make bad cases, since Mafia have more information available (they know who are town and more easily see the townie perspective for posting things). So, HiroPro's case is actually pretty bad, which is hypocritical since he accuses me of posting a bad case. However, it doesn't look like he believed in his own case even himself, since when I posted a slightly better case he just unvoted immediately and jumped on the next possible bandwagon I had created. Funny, considering he later accused me of "throwing blame around and seeing where it sticks". Another hypocritical comment from him, seeing as he was himself searching for a bandwagon with enough support and not searching for Mafia. When it looked like the vonKlaust case wasn't getting support either, he quickly stepped off of it. On April 14 2012 07:51 HiroPro wrote: yomi - A lot of yomi's posting seems to be calling out various people as mafia without providing solid reasoning. I don't agree with vote on Dittert (Dittert seems much more like new town to me than mafia (RNG proposal is not really something to lynch over). Talking about ignoring various people in the thread because he doesn't like them is not town behavior at all. Yomi is scummy in my opinion. HiroPro defends Dittert and attacks yomi. Considering the possibility that HiroPro & Dittert are Mafia, this would make a lot of sense - diverting suspicion to yomi of the two "most suspicious players" at the time. HiroPro's hypocrisy comes through again: he claims yomi is scummy for "calling out people as Mafia without solid reasoning", yet he himself calls yomi out as Mafia without much of any reasoning (except yomi's lack of solid reasoning). On April 15 2012 11:13 HiroPro wrote: The Blue Shift Blue roles work best when town doesn't know what they are going to do or who they are; the risk from mafia hits or roleblocks is too high. But yet Xatalos continued to push attempts to direct blue roles and figure out other people's opinions on their actions. When you combine this with his sudden reversal on whether or not to discuss blue roles, it's scummy as hell. The Distraction Factor When you look at Xatalos's posting, it's all over the place. Irrelevant comparisions to a previous mafia game he played, superficial reads on pretty much every person in the game, suggestions on perhaps "lynching for information", constant speculation on well "if this person is mafia/town, then...". These kind of posts appear to be pro-town, when all they really accomplish is crowding out actual analysis and arguments. Xatalos's goal isn't to find out who mafia is, it's to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that he thinks town would be willing to follow through on. That's why in the beginning of the game, Xatalos made numerous posts where he would declare a different primary lynch target and then along with that, provide a list of 3-4 other names who he was willing to lynch. ##Vote: Xatalos This is actually HiroPro's most pro-town post in the game, although it isn't without issues either. "The Blue Shift" is a valid point (at least to some extent), but "The Distraction Factor" is again hypocritical. HiroPro claims I "want to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that I think town would be willing to follow through on". This is exactly what HiroPro has been doing: throwing accusations without much basis, creating and jumping on bandwagons eagerly but without conviction (backing off fast if it doesn't take fire), focusing on finding a good bandwagon instead of searching for Mafia. Another suspicious thing about this post is the timing: if HiroPro and Dittert are a Mafia team, it would make a lot of sense to divert the vote from Dittert to me like this. If Dittert is town, however, the timing of this post would make HiroPro less suspicious (why risk switching the vote off of a townie who has already pretty much given up?). The logical conclusion is that most likely HiroPro and Dittert are both Mafia or both town. Both Mafia seems more likely considering HiroPro's weird trust in Dittert (whom most of the town find suspicious). ##Unvote ##Vote: HiroPro | ||
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Xatalos (5): HiroPro, Willz, vonKlaust, Funcmode, imallinson HiroPro (3): Acrofales, KharadBanar, Xatalos Dittert (1): yomi Willz (1): Dittert It seems like, fortunately, my best town reads (Acrofales and KharadBanar) believed now I'm not Mafia (or at least not more likely Mafia than HiroPro). However, there are only 2 hours left and if the rest are lurking/AFK, this is going to end sadly... yomi, consider this: if HiroPro flips Mafia, you are pretty much redeemed and no longer a good lynch candidate. Willz, I doubt you really think I'm the most likely Mafia (if you are town). You said you were after information: well, HiroPro's flip would almost quarantee Dittert's flip as well (Mafia&Mafia or town&town). Isn't that quite useful information? vonKlaust: read my latest post (as well as Acrofales's recent posts). If you don't find good contribution in these posts, I don't know where you'll find it. | ||
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On April 16 2012 03:33 imallinson wrote: @yomi I don't think two people not attacking each other means they are both scum. Hiro defending Dittert is interesting, but you have to remember it was at a time when everyone but you had Dittert pegged as newb town so I'm not as confidident that it is suspicious behaviour. As for Dittert jumping on you when you linked the two of them I don't think both those things are linked. He came with good arguments as to why you seemed scummy and it doesn't strike me as him defending Hiro. Again this was early on in Day 1 and people were throwing accusations around a lot. To me, this looks like softly defending both Dittert and HiroPro. I didn't find anything similarly suspicious earlier in his filter, so this might be just a coincidence... However, I wouldn't be surprised if the Mafia team was HiroPro&Dittert&imallinson. They have been very soft and vague with each other, not willing to vote for each other and stepping in to protect each other when needed (especially HiroPro&Dittert, imallinson to a lesser extent). | ||
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On April 17 2012 03:23 imallinson wrote: I'm not so sure Hiro is scum. I think either Dittert or Xatalos are scum and whether Hiro is scum or not depends a lot on Dittert's alignment. I think what is interesting is that Hiro went from thinking Xatalos is reasonably town to picking him out as scum at the beginning of day 2. I haven't quite figured out his motivations for this yet and there is definitely a town explanation for this as well as a scum one. Dittert is Scum If Dittert is scum it makes a lot of sense that Hiro is scum as well. Hiro makes a case for someone who is weak when his team mate is looking to get lynched. I think this is probably the case both ways (If Hiro ends up getting lynched and flips scum Dittert is probably scum too). Dittert is Town However, if Dittert is town then it makes no sense for Hiro to be scum, he completely shuns the current consensus that Dittert is scum and goes for someone else to get lynched when it makes no difference to him. Therefore if Dittert is town I'm fairly sure Hiro is town. Consequently this makes me think Xatalos is scum. So while your Hiro case has merit Acrofales, I still think Xatalos is the scummier of him and Dittert leaving Hiro as town. This gets me very interested in the possibility of HiroPro&Dittert&imallinson... I'll have to look how HiroPro and Dittert have talked about imallinson next! I'm actually getting pretty excited already. It's not too bad even if I die now, since the whole Mafia team has been potentially revealed. If I die and flip town, please focus your attention on these three players immediately. Don't forget to use DT/Vigi/Jailer. And heal Acrofales, I think. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 13 2012 09:23 Dittert wrote: 3. imallinson - He seems normal? I don't really have a strong inclination for anyone in this third town spot. He asks for KB's read on Hiro, which seems helpful to the town. Dittert randomly expresses his confidence in imallinson being town. This would fit my theory very well, I think. | ||
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