Newbie Mini Mafia VII - Page 13

On April 07 2012 22:38 Bocki wrote:
Lazin:
Good analysis. I like the connection stuff (although of course I dont like my upcoming in it, but at least you held by the facts).

I only have one correction:
--Bocki votes Lyter "Good as any" (bandwagony?)
Thats not completely true. I said "good as any" in combination with my mathematical approach. Seviro had the least posts (1 post I think). Gossemeer had 3 posts when I did my vote, lyter had 4. That was the reason why I said "good as any", as in "4 posts are as good as 3 posts".

I dont blame you for pointing this out, since it came up 2/3 times now. I hope its clear now why I said it.

And about the bandwagony: I proposed the mathematical approach and proposed seviro (that would have been modkilled if he didnt vote at all) or gossemeer. I wanted to hear from the rest if they want to do the mathematical approach or if someone found something. Since the first vote was lyter and he only had 1 post more than my idea, I was fine with it.

On April 07 2012 22:50 Bocki wrote:
After reading it again and going through the filters, I think Lazin is onto something with the BlueyD, era, Therapist connection.

I will go with my gut feeling:

##Vote: BlueyD

Happy Easter Saturday to all of you

On April 08 2012 00:03 BlueyD wrote:
Aye, time to put out a vote.

My case against Gossemerr hasn't gotten any better, and standards are higher on day 2 than on day 1. What I have is insufficient for me to vote for him.

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Bocki's defense against my lastest attack is decent, though no more. What he says (didn't post his case because he thought it was a bit weak, wanted it to be stronger before he did and got rushed into it) is plausible. His vote for me feels a bit like an OMGUS, but it does seem plausible that I would have been his best read already, with the whole Gossemerr thing I seem to be the only one to be getting.

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era's play is maddeningly unchanging. He's tunneling, short-posting and WIFOMing all over the place, even after people have pointed it out. The only question is: Horrible townie, or horrible mafia? It is my opinion that a horrible town would at least learn to be less awful after a few days, and actually help the town in some way. This guy hasn't. The one insight he got (and I have difficulty thinking it was really his), he actually dismissed.


##Vote:era

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I want to congratulate LazinCajun for posting a very convincing connection case. I took a quick look at therapist and era's filters and in my opinion it support the case as well. I'll do a deeper analysis if era turns up scum.

On April 08 2012 00:25 LazinCajun wrote:
Bocki (or anybody else) if you read this before the deadline: Why do you think that the mafia would want to flop to Gossemerr when Lyter, somebody they would've known is town, was already getting lynched? I think that's the weakest part of my post by far, and it's bugging me. The only explanations I can come up with aren't very plausible and come off very WIFOM-y.

On April 08 2012 01:11 era wrote:


Really, you find a connection case that's based on me and therapist posting 3 minutes apart convincing? Lazin himself says that we posted 40 minutes before the deadline which is when everyone would usually be on and voting. Why are you trying to use Lazins "convincing" case to try to get me lynched? I think you are panicking because you are scum.

On April 08 2012 01:18 LazinCajun wrote:

Oh man. Almost none of his reasoning is based on my post, but rather your posting. You're not defending what he was accusing you of.

On April 08 2012 01:17 Bocki wrote:


I dont think its really weak.

Lyter didnt say anything through most of the day. His post was "okay" but not really good. Maybe they thought that (since gossemeer started the lyter lynch) he would be one of the more active players and tried to off him on D1.

Possible train of thought of mafia:
- Lyter votes for gossemeer. Since he is on the bench and gosse started it, normal reaction.
Lets look at the proposed connection

Since there are only 2 maf it could either be:
1: era/blueyd
era switches to test the terrain, see if anyone else is willing to switch (at that time it was 6-2)
Therapist accepts lyters reasoning and jumps on the train.
BlueyD switches in the hope of someone else switching to gosse. (4-4 then. It would have taken only 1 person, iamallinson for example. iamallinson voted lazin alone, so there was a probability that he jumped on the gosse bandwagon but not lyter since he already switched his vote away from that.)

2: era/therapist
era, same reason
therapist may have not checked his PMs (the posts were only 3 minutes apart) and did not see that era wanted him to wait a while until he posts. Example: PM from era to therapist: "lets switch to gosse and see if someone switches with us". Therapist reads it and begins to write. era sends a PM again "but not right after another, that looks scummy", but therapist already posted.
BlueyD switches to gosse because of some meta stuff. Pretty vague from my point of view, but okay, everyone plays this differently.

3: therapist/blueyd
era is convinced of lyters school explanation and switches to gosse since he started the bandwagon.
therapist: same reasoning as era in 1:
blueyd: waited the appropriate time (12 minutes is still a little small window, but okay. Since he didnt say anything for the next 2,5 hours, maybe he had to leave and didnt want to wait so long to keep the momentum of the bandwagon) and switched then.

This is of course just a case against those three and I did not take into account the other players, but thats what I wanted it to be. I dont think its therapist (although the scenario sounds reasonable) and I cant tell it from single quotes. Just his overall apprearance does not seems scummy to me.

So I think its era/blueyd. The only reason I voted for BlueyD instead of era is that era has made some statements that speak against scum and BlueyD did not. So in case BlueyD isnt scum, its scenario 2.

On April 08 2012 01:20 Bocki wrote:
Hmm.. era voting for BlueyD.. that is strange.. maybe its scenario 3?

I'm not convinced that era is not guilty but even less convinced that era is not guilty.

My vote stays.