EPTDeath Factory Mafia 2
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On March 31 2012 07:33 Snarfs wrote: As a heads up to the other players in the game, for the first 12 hours (or a little less), I will be unable to post as I won't be near a computer until Sunday evening between 7 and 9 PDT. Hope to see lots of content by then for me to sift through, though =). So wait. 12AM ET would be Midnight ET. Which means Snarfs would be out for the first 24 hours almost, not 12. Is he confused, or am I? | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12-hour_clock#Confusion_at_noon_and_midnight | ||
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Tobon
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How do we want to do this? There was an attempt at using a voting system in Death Factory 1 in order to help coordinate the pushes/pulls, but it fell by the wayside pretty quickly as toys started exploring using their powers. Can we start with a couple easy ground rules, like PoPing someone off the ends of the queue or into the fire zone is extremely anti-town without a majority in favor? | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
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Wow, and I thought my previous mafia game derailed into madness fast. I have read through the last game and the voting didn't seem to work at all, so I don't know why anybody wants to try it. Tobon, are you scum?/QUOTE] Nope. And as you'll notice if you reread, I mentioned that the voting went nowhere. I wasn't suggesting it as a solution, but as a failed previous experience to start off discussion. Many of us are agreed that PoPs should be coordinated and not wasted. That's obvious and also quite vague. So how do you think we ought to go about concretely accomplishing it? | ||
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Tobon
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Tobon
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On April 01 2012 16:49 Bill Murray wrote: I can move up to 3 spaces, and when I do, if anyone in the lines I'm moving are scum, I can't move. I moved on a line with VE (he's not scum), and had to go through snarf (he's not scum) Clarification: Do you mean that you decide how far you move, and you decided to move only 1 space to check just two people? Or do you mean that it could have been 3 spaces but you moved only 1, so someone in here: 12.[wherebugsgo][prplhz] 11. [Acrofales][___________] is scum? | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On April 01 2012 19:50 Palmar wrote: just remember to reverse your action because apparently I'm some weird toy that gets pulled when pushed, and pushed while pulled. Nothing is for sure here, but in DFM1, this was the power of the evil Mirror Toy, who could also reverse ends of the entire queue once per game. So (a) be aware that the queue flipping power probably exists, and also (b) I'd be a a bit suspicious of Palmar, although I doubt Ace would make it so easy for us by repeating scum roles. | ||
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Tobon
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Tobon
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On April 02 2012 12:01 Nemesis wrote: Time to actually give out my scumreads so far: Right now I'm looking at Tobon. First thing he does is proposing the secondary voting system. While that by itself is not really scummy even though I disagree with it, his next posts I find are rather bad. Already explained that I wasn't suggesting it, I was bringing it up to start discussion. In the same sentence that I "proposed" it, I also said that it failed to go anywhere. On April 02 2012 12:01 Nemesis wrote: Note how he takes an extremely neutral stance here. He finds Palmar suspicious for his role which is similar to a role in the previous game, but then he adds that it is unlikely that Ace would give scum the same roles. This sounds to me like a scum trying to put suspicion onto someone while avoiding responsibility for it. Just overly wordy on my part. The important point is that Palmar very likely has the entire queue flip once-per-game power. On April 02 2012 12:01 Nemesis wrote: Again he stresses how we don't know Palmar's alignment. Yeah, so? I'd shrug and chalk this up to pressure except for the push. The push was completely wasteful. There's no feeling I've noticed on anyone else's part that I might be scum, so why would you throw away your push with more than 24 hours to go? Shouldn't you be trying to build a case or convince other people, while seeing what other people do as well, and then use your PoPs more productively nearer the deadline? As it is, this really comes across as an excuse to use up your push so you won't be responsible for going against majority town's choice when it comes. FoS: Nemesis. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On April 02 2012 13:09 VisceraEyes wrote: Or Nemisis is a super-strong double-pushing toy. Very interesting. VERY. Seems unlikely, scum or town, wouldn't Nemesis have mentioned what was about to happen when it's his own action doing it? Anyway, @VE: did you expect something interesting to happen with your "Hold on a second." push of Bluelightz, or are you that sure of your scum vote already? You and Bugs using up PoPs so early in the day bothers me, although at least there's been discussion on the target of them. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
I'm also provisionally believing BM, which means he, VE and Snarfs are provisionally town. I like Acrofales's filter so far, Cephiro's too, although I wish there was more of it. Null reads on others. More talk from more people needed. Come on good toys, more activity! | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On April 02 2012 14:24 Snarfs wrote: It's the way he said it. Saying that it wasn't the best use of a PoP, but he didn't really care. Plus, seriously, if he was going to lie about that it would be found out pretty damn fast by someone who actually was in favour of pushing him towards the item. Hence, it makes sense from people like VE and Mattchew, because they've at least expressed interest in him getting the item. Also, look at cascades entire post. It's pure fluff plus this rolecheck which I thought was pointless. I agree with all this. I'm not liking Cascades' post and pull either. However, pushing him is still a bad idea right now. Because of the two-toys-fill-a-row bumping mechanic, the more spread out we toys get the more pushes it takes to get anyone into the fire zone. The worst thing we can do as good toys is to end up almost killing several suspects instead of making sure to get one or two. As long as we're talking about queue mechanics, I'll make explicit something I've just been hinting at as well: we have no control over Palmar. Anyone thinking "we let him get the item and then if he acts scummy we just don't push him back out of the fire" isn't considering that he can happily hang out in the fire zone and just flip the queue if it seems like he might end the day there. That having been said, though, we can take advantage of that situation by leaving Palmar exactly where he is. Our two biggest lurkers, risk.nuke and Sbrubbles probably figure they are safe because they are near the bottom, Blue is hard to lynch because he's down there too. If we _pull_ (1) Blue, (2) Blue, (3) Sbrubbles, (4) risk, (5) Blue, and then let Palmar swap ends then we get all three of what look like the scummiest so far with only 5 pulls. If Palmar is town, he'll agree to the plan, and if he's scum he'd have to sacrifice himself by not using his power and dying in order to save those 3, which he wouldn't do unless 1 or more of them are also scum, so we'd end up killing one scum and identifying more. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On April 02 2012 23:02 syllogism wrote: Palmar not caring doesn't necessarily make him scum and I know he has been busy recently. I don't think he would reveal his power like this as scum and even if he were scum, his power basically makes him impossible to kill today anyway. However, we do have to know if he intends to use his power or not. I would prefer to kill wbg (for his tone) and bm (due to his role seeming very unlikely), but they are both around the center of the queue and there doesn't seem to be much support for lynching either. I don't think Palmar is scum, I think it doesn't matter whether he is or not right now, if his survival is tied to using his ability in a town-positive way. And BM's claimed role is identical to one of the toys in game 1, so I don't find it too unlikely. | ||
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Tobon
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Tobon
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##push layabout To see whether the light goes out. | ||
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On April 03 2012 01:57 VisceraEyes wrote: Wait, what are you assuming about risk.nuke Tobon? What do you mean "risk.nuke's light"? He never ever described his power, what it would look like in-thread or what it would do...why would you "presume" that the image has anything to do with risk.nuke at all? Because I read through Death Factory Mafia 1, because several other roles are identical, because (super meta, yes) I think that DFM1 was too random because of people not having any idea of roles so I expect Ace to have tweaked for balance but left some alone so we'll have some idea what we're doing, and because risk.nuke hinted strongly about what he was. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On April 03 2012 02:01 Cephiro wrote: I guess we have an Evil Toy in either syllogism or sbrubbles then. Tobon, if you had checked more carefully, you would've noticed that Ace changed the ability to work only 1 position in both directions. Damn. Apologies. Will go back to DFM1 and confirm that... | ||
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Tobon
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I'd like to see Nemesis lynched. I can't push him myself, and I can't push Palmar out of the fire either. Both of those would be what we'd need to do if we want to go that direction. Meanwhile, still very interested in pulling syllogism or sbrubbles down and out of risk's range. Any objections or volunteers to pull sbrubbles? | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On April 03 2012 02:46 risk.nuke wrote: sorry, the red light is not my abillity. Interesting how some people immidiatly choose to distract the discussion from the lynch candidates. Anyone else want to claim the red light? If you aren't the cop toy, risk.nuke, then please contribute. You're doing an awful lot of lurking. I admit, I'm tempted to pull you, just to see if you are telling the truth or not. If you have a cop-light-like power, the light would go out if you get PoPed, and you'd have some explaining to do here. But I was over-eager with my push, so I'll wait for now. | ||
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Tobon
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On April 03 2012 03:16 Cephiro wrote: You go ahead and do that, if you want to get the town in an even worse position. Just sayin'. If the queue is flipped, then a push moves you further away from the fire zone. I thought that was an expression of support from BM, not a threat... BM seems somewhat confused though, so who knows. :-) | ||
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Tobon
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On April 03 2012 03:32 layabout wrote: cephiro, why are you opposed to getting things done? Palmar is too close to the item to back out now. Since nobody has said they are pushing him because they want him to die, pushing him over the edge would simply be you deciding to act against the towns wishes. If Palmar were to flip town do you think that we would let you live after pushing him? Besides the longer we leave Palmar in the incineration zone the longer we do not know whether he will decide to flip or not (if he does have that ability), and the longer we do not know where to push our lynch candidate. I think we should be lynching Nemesis. Why kill Wiggles? Agree fully (except that Palmar has already admitted he does have that ability - he just hasn't answered whether it is one-shot or not). I was against giving the item to Palmar at first, because I thought it was a waste of PoPs, but the remaining cost has been steadily going down as people have been moving him closer anyway. I have a completely null read on him - randomly he has a 4 out of 5 chance of being town. So I'm VERY opposed to immediately killing him. | ||
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Tobon
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We still ought to have plenty of PoPs to deal with syllo or sbrubbles if this confirms him town. ##pull Cephiro Now wait! | ||
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On April 03 2012 04:19 Cephiro wrote: I would like to remind that if Palmar decides to flip the queue, I am 1 spot away from getting incinerated. Imo we should push Sbrubbles even though it gets him further from being killed, it requires one less PoP. Otherwise it's wiser to pull syllo twice. Imo push sbrubbles once, then use the pulls to confirm one more player (Mattchew or bluelightz) Can't push sbrubbles once right now, won't prove anything because of how the cop power needs more people nearby. Someone should push you up and towards safety, and THEN we can push and/or pull sbrubbles. | ||
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Tobon
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And if the answer to both those questions is no, then PoPing a nullified person doesn't use up your PoP? | ||
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On April 03 2012 06:43 Cephiro wrote: @ VE : Hm :/ I don't want to push and get you killed unless we have more people on that are going to follow. Even though we supposedly have more than enough PoPs available, it unfortunately doesn't mean everyone is going to use them. I will be online for some time still however, but I do not want to use my push on VE just yet, since in the worst-case scenario it could get him killed too. Go ahead and use your push. I don't think there are enough PoPs left to be able to accomplish anything else productive today, and I can save VE if absolutely necessary. Best case, though, we get a couple more people able to push, Palmar mounts up, and plenty of people have pulls. | ||
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Tobon
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On April 03 2012 06:55 Cephiro wrote: What I am interested in however, is Tobon, your claim about being able to save VE if absolutely necessary? Do not reveal the details, but if you could be kind enough and clarify to me that is VE the only one you are able to save (there is no way for you to save Palmar, for example?) I can't think of a way to answer that without revealing more. I'll role claim if it makes the difference between saving them or not (like, if you insisted on not using your push without details, and others didn't step forward either), but I'd prefer not to say more right now. | ||
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Tobon
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On April 03 2012 07:02 Cephiro wrote:... do me a favour and do not use your PoPs as recklessly tomorrow, if you survive till that. Yes, absolutely, my PoPs have sucked today, and I have learned my lesson. | ||
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Tobon
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On April 03 2012 08:07 VisceraEyes wrote: Tobon what do you think about syllogism? Full thoughts please. My overall impression is of a careful/paranoid style. He asks lots of questions, and he hasn't done any scum reads. I know that acting neutral and concentrating on talking game mechanics is a classic scum way of blending in to town, but I have to admit that I'm drawn towards that style myself, so I have a hard time finding it suspicious by itself. I was liking him early in the day. But then: That he questioned the existence of BM's role initially made me think he was either scum or bad town for not reading through DFM1. That he commented twice about wanting to lynch BM, got absolutely no support from anyone, and then ended up wasting his push on BM anyway, hours later, reinforced that opinion. He's tunneling BM for no reason whatsoever besides supposed meta game balance, which makes no sense. He's scummy and I wouldn't mind him lynched. | ||
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Tobon
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Tobon
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I assume some power? And since it seems like an awfully powerful power, maybe something that you need to not use your PoPs in order to use (like -- we assume -- risk.nuke's cop role)? So maybe we ask layabout (who claimed he just doesn't have any PoPs at all) and Mr.Zentor (who also did nothing) to justify their existence? (A series of iffy propositions, granted, but what else could've done it?) | ||
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Tobon
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On April 04 2012 02:27 risk.nuke wrote: I'm thinking it might be better to ignore sburbbles ceph and syllogism for now. Even if one of them dies and flip scum, it doesn't actually say anything about the others alignment. It's good enough that we just have the information that there is evil toys in there. Um... what? If one of them dies and flips scum, we're that much closer to winning this thing. The point of the game, remember? (Total WIFOM time, but this post makes me doubt risk's claim for the first time. It's really dumb. It makes me wonder why the red light that we saw is a different one than the one in DFM1. Much less cop-esque. Much more evil-looking.) However: I think both Sburbbles and Syllo are scummy enough that I'd be perfectly happy with pulling off whichever one of the two ends up closest to the bottom of the queue when our placement is randomized at the beginning of day 2. | ||
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Tobon
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I also think Nemesis is more likely to be town now too, both because he did some helpful stuff later on in the day, and also because his continued tunneling of me is beginning to feel like a more genuine town-but-wrong situation rather than an opportunistic scum-trying-to-wrongly-convince town. If he was scum he'd probably be bandwagoning more on someone else whose already under suspicion. | ||
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Tobon
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On April 04 2012 02:49 Nemesis wrote: Note how he says he is suspicious of cascades but is not willing to lynch him. Oh, and this part. My read on cascades is here: link. In short: scummy. The bit you quoted is me saying that the timing of the PoP on cascades was poor because we hadn't decided for sure on a target yet. As many of us are agreeing now, a lot of us (me definitely included) used our PoPs poorly and in an uncoordinated way on day 1. Hopefully we can do better from here on out. | ||
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What do you think of Bluelightz, for instance? | ||
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On April 04 2012 06:20 layabout wrote: because concluding that would be fucking dumb Layabout confirmed town. ;-) I'm thinking syllogism, Bluelightz, Mr.Zentor for lynching, in that order. | ||
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Tobon
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On April 04 2012 06:29 wherebugsgo wrote: I currently have 0 qualms about killing Tobon. Why's that Bugs? Lay it out for us. | ||
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On April 04 2012 06:32 wherebugsgo wrote: No thanks, I don't explain stuff to scum. Especially not at night. If I was scum, wouldn't I want you dead before you explained how scummy I was, instead of after, when your death would make your case look like it has that much more weight? | ||
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Tobon
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On April 04 2012 05:52 layabout wrote: why did risk nuke lie about the red light belonging to him? and why did risk nuke not bother to explain his ability? These are very good questions, by the way. The first one especially. The second, I could just see just not doing it in time - I did my stupid PoPs pretty quickly after the light came on. Especially because risk.nuke is now trying to dissuade us from testing his role claim by killing some of the potential scum that it supposedly revealed: On April 04 2012 02:27 risk.nuke wrote: I'm thinking it might be better to ignore sburbbles ceph and syllogism for now. Even if one of them dies and flip scum, it doesn't actually say anything about the others alignment. It's good enough that we just have the information that there is evil toys in there. So Risk, why do you think we should ignore these guys now? And what was your thought process in not wanting to claim the red light initially? | ||
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On April 04 2012 06:32 wherebugsgo wrote: No thanks, I don't explain stuff to scum. Especially not at night. On April 04 2012 06:40 wherebugsgo wrote: Who says I won't be explaining it later? There's still plenty of time left in this night. So you don't explain at night, except that you do explain at night? | ||
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Tobon
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On April 04 2012 08:06 Acrofales wrote: Okay, I wanted to leave it until tomorrow, but it's probably worth the discussion, so here's my reads. Leading the scumomenter are Sbrubbles and Bluelightz, for reasons posted earlier. [...] Tobon: extremely useless posts. You don't know how hard it is to resist replying to that with something extremely useless! So there, that part is extremely useless, now let's move on. How do you square Sbrubbles being number one on your scumometer now, with this post: On April 03 2012 07:26 Acrofales wrote: No. I disagree with both lynches atm. The case on Syllo seems to be just meta and I don't know him long enough to say anything. In GoT mafia he was disinterested and played a similar style, but he was town there (of course, he was a hydra with Sandroba, so not a very good read). The case for Sbrubbles was that he's a lurker and hasn't done anything useful. He seems to be back and posting more actively. ... especially since Sbrubbles has posted even more actively after you wrote that? | ||
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Tobon
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I'll be pulling Syllo in 5-10 minutes unless people tell me it's a bad idea. | ||
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On April 04 2012 13:25 wherebugsgo wrote: let's push Tobon and pull syllo lol I agree with half your plan. :-) Are we going to get to see your reasoning on me, now that it isn't night? | ||
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On April 04 2012 13:29 Cephiro wrote: Also Tobon, please do not use your pull on syllo yet. I should be able to kill him if you help me. I am certainly willing to wait. You want to be pushed, then? | ||
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And I suppose feel free not to answer if it reveals too much, I just want to know if we could fry scum with the same PoPs and save your power for a day when you could see what you were doing... | ||
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On April 04 2012 13:39 Snarfs wrote: Why would scum kill Sbrubbles unless they want syllo to die? It doesn't make sense.... There's also the possibility that we had a mistaken town vig. Sbrubbles was under suspicion, I could imagine him getting killed by a towny with poor judgement. | ||
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Tobon
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3,4,5,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,6,6,7,7,7,8,8,8,8,8 It would take 6-11 pulls to pull someone off the bottom end: 6,7,7,7,7,7,8,8,8,9,9,9,9,9,10,10,10,10,10,11 That gives us the sort of numbers we'll need to work with to lynch. To get Cephiro to the item is potentially up to 4 spots more, so 7-12. | ||
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On April 04 2012 13:53 Snarfs wrote: Hopefully the flamethrower grew so there's an even better chance Ah, I'd forgotten about that wrinkle. So are you in the Tobon-is-scum camp, Snarfs? Cuz I'm not. If we get one scum along with me dying, that would be a fair trade, but obviously I'd prefer to live through the day, so I'm at your disposal should you have any questions. You too, Bugs. | ||
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On April 04 2012 14:00 wherebugsgo wrote: Problem is rule 15.What I'm wondering right now is whether it's better to trust you and push you toward the item or push someone I think is scum. First of all, you aren't confirmed town until you die. (if syllo flips scum it's actually still remotely possible you're scum as well, though I find that extraordinarily unlikely). As syllo hasn't flipped yet, what I'd rather do is kill syllo first, then determine whether or not you're trustworthy. Problem with this? 15. Dead player's roles and alignment are not revealed until the end of the day phase. It makes things harder for us, unfortunately. | ||
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On April 04 2012 14:07 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Hey risk.nuke, do you get to use your power again today? If we can, we should put some people we want to check into next to him, and get him to check. We could also 1-1 trade syllo or Ceph by checking them alone to get the scum, and then if the one determined to be scum flips town, flipping risk.nuke. Unless they're a miller, I don't see a reason for them to appear as scum on day 1, if risk is telling the truth. And how exactly do we know who is next to him? | ||
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On April 04 2012 14:10 Ace wrote: A couple of things (I'll update the day post with it): Queue positions 19 - 24 are lethal. Position 21 holds an item. Okay. 3 fewer toys (so we presumably get distributed more towards the middle). 2 extra ouchy spots. We are very likely looking at 2-7 pushes to get someone to the fire, 4-9 to the item. 7-12 pulls to go off the back end. | ||
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On April 04 2012 14:14 Cephiro wrote: Like Bugs, I'm now hesitating. Why 3 more spots past the item? I can't think why that wouldn't just be 3 wasted pushes that could be used for scum hunting. I am volunteering to be pushed all the way to spot 24. (if my guesstimates are right, Nemesis's 3-push alone gives me a 6/17 chance of being in the fire right now.) | ||
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On April 04 2012 14:30 wherebugsgo wrote: Anyone have a problem with the push Cephiro, pull Tobon/Bluelightz plan? Pulling me is bad just from a practical standpoint. Thanks to my nemesis, I almost surely require more pulls than anyone else. If not Syllo, why not pull Mr.zentor? I think he's scum as well, and opinions seem to be mixed about Blue (although I'd be willing to pull him also). | ||
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On April 04 2012 14:39 Snarfs wrote: This sounds like fearmongering. Trying to convince us it's not worth our pulls to kill you rather than convincing us you're not scum. This is a scum tactic. Please don't use it if you're town. It isn't fearmongering, it is merely logic. As far as I can see, there hasn't actually been a case made that I'm scum. (Besides Nemesis's tunneling that I answered yesterday). If I had something to answer, I'd answer it. Meanwhile, I'm helping town however I can. | ||
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On April 04 2012 14:57 Cephiro wrote: I know that syllogism is Evil. I am as certain as I can be that prplhz is Evil also. (But I cannot back this up to a modconfirmed extent yet.) Are you claiming to have some alignment revealing power, then? And if so, how could you possibly have more powers that involve moving into the fire and then saving yourself and then also getting a scum kill? | ||
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##Pull Bluelightz | ||
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On April 04 2012 15:27 Cephiro wrote: So, you up for initiating the plan to push me towards the incineration zone while waiting for others to arrive? Still not seeing the advantage of you doing this over just pushing scum, especially since you want to go to row 24, which requires lots more pushes. I'll sleep on it. | ||
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Tobon
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By this logic, you should probably also push me, even though I'm town. Personally I'd prefer that we all push Syllo. I read Cephiro as town, but I'm getting less and less enthused about his plan, just because we're so much in the dark (literally and figuratively) and I don't want to potentially mess things up. With this setup and all these powers, simpler is better. Push scum. | ||
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Already did, here: link | ||
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On April 05 2012 03:34 layabout wrote: Why on earth has Bluelightz received more PoP's than syllo? Because of this: On April 04 2012 00:55 layabout wrote: Bluelightz if you actually use that power we should lynch you. | ||
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On April 05 2012 05:17 Snarfs wrote: Since we can't conditional PoP, should we wait for Ace to post updates before we push? That way we'd know if Cephiro might have got the item yet or not. I don't think Cephiro could have started in the fire (#19), and he has 2 pushes now. So at closest, he maybe could've gone from 17 to 19? I think it should still be safe / a good idea for Nemesis to push next (and to go ahead and do it), and then wait for an update. I'll push after an update and after giving warning. | ||
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Mr.Zentor is one of the lurkers we should burn, yes. Risk.nuke (what little filter we have from him) is acting dumb. That makes me question my assumptions, yes. I explicitly tell Cephiro not to claim, I just wonder (as several of us have) whether it'd just be easier / more efficient to push scum directly. I'm not the only one who has been uncomfortable supporting a plan that I know no details of. It's too late for that now that he has gotten all the pushes, though - I'm ready to push him further (if necessary) as soon as we get updated. I stand behind all those quoted bits, and I think they are all obviously towny. | ||
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On April 05 2012 09:45 MrZentor wrote: Isn't it interesting that MrZentor had plenty of time to write a long ramble-y nothing post (as wbg commented) and also enough time to troll through my filter to find me "feeling guilty" 18 freaking minutes into the start of the game, but didn't have enough time to read through the current thread and find all the instructions NOT to continue pushing Cephiro? Who is now frozen in possible danger?Could we kill Tobon? | ||
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##Revive | ||
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On April 05 2012 09:54 Snarfs wrote: I was going to ask if toys stay dead if you use that ability, but I guess the answer would be 'no' or we could have killed BL first. Right. Anyone who was alive at beginning of day comes back to where they started. So we couldn't kill BL first. | ||
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United States372 Posts
On April 05 2012 09:56 MrZentor wrote: My push on him didn't even count, retard. You can act like scum 18 minutes into the game. I'd like to nominate MrZentor for lynching, and I'd be happy to use my push on him. I'll wait for discussion, though, and use my push near end of day on whomever town decides. | ||
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We agree on which scum to push first, make sure we get all 6 done before starting on the second one. We don't want to end up splitting more than that. Also, from now on, let's not PoP town into fire zones, no matter how good the plan seems. Nullification is very powerful, and we don't know whether it'll run out or not. | ||
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I think we push him 6 times, then agree on a second push target and/or a pull target. I think Mr.Zentor, cascades, prplhz are scum. I'm willing to go along with wiggles or bluelightz if the rest of town prefers them. | ||
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That means that 6 pushes (if not counteracted in some way) is almost guaranteed to fry a toy, which means this ought to be easier than I thought. It also means, though, that 6 pushes has a 64% chance (11/17) of letting the target hit the item. Some items aren't useful to scum (like the magnifying glass), but several are. If we perform: 2 pushes, chance of frying is 6%, item grabbing is 0% 3 pushes, chance of frying is 35%, item grabbing is 0% 4 pushes, chance of frying is 64%, item grabbing is 6% 5 pushes, chance of frying is 82%, item grabbing is 35% 6 pushes, chance of frying is 100%, item grabbing is 64% | ||
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On April 05 2012 11:49 Mattchew wrote: I am having second thoughts about syllo Also, you saying " I'm willing to go along with wiggles or bluelightz if the rest of town prefers them." looks like you don't want any of the responsibility for their flips. Why are you so wishy washy? Because I have reasonable doubt about Wiggles and Bluelightz, so I'd prefer to fry the people I have stronger scum reads on. I still think both of them have a good chance of being scum, though, and I'm happy to PoP them and be held responsible for their flips if the majority prefers them. | ||
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On April 05 2012 12:31 cascades wrote: Why would Tobon's use of ability make him town to those that suddenly cleared him? Ceph received 6 pushes (2 cancelled) and then was nullified. 6 pushes would absolutely put him in the fire zone. 4 very likely does, and we have to expect that the scum with the Darkness power has some sort of limited visibility (as in the description from DFM1, although perhaps not identical). We know with near certainty that the nullification is a scum power, as it was used to attempt to kill Palmar day 1, and Palmar later did die and flipped town. Therefore, Ceph was dead today if I didn't act, and that attempted murder was instigated by scum. Therefore, both Ceph and I are confirmed town, as much as "confirmed" can possibly be before death and flip. On April 05 2012 12:31 cascades wrote: 2) Ceph has some magical power that avoids nullification, which is why he wasn't afraid of mafia using nullification and ruining his plan. And yet, he is mod-confirmed nullified, as demonstrated by the failure of Snarf's and Zentor's pushes. So you are full of crap here. As confirmed town, I want to see 2 more Syllo pushes (we have 3 already, counting Nemesis's double-strong one), no more and no less (post and give warning before performing your push). Vote for second scum push target. Anyone who uses a push on anyone else until that target is decided is super scummy. If anyone has comments or corrections on my push percentages, and therefore on what the plan should be, let's hear 'em. | ||
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On April 05 2012 13:49 Snarfs wrote: I think our other kill should be Bluelightz. Bluelightz is a bit of a special case, because he got double-pulled by Nemesis after my reset. Therefore he'd need 7 pushes to get in the optimal zone. I'd be fine with attempting to pull him to death, but I don't think he should be the second push target. | ||
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On April 05 2012 13:59 Ace wrote: An item has been picked up Bad luck! But at least we know for sure that he's in the fire zone. No more Syllo pushes, please. | ||
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My vote for second push target is Mr.Zentor right now. But we have lots and lots of time. I don't want to see any more pushing at all for at least 12 hours or so. We scum hunt, we make cases, hopefully we get one more. If we're lucky we even pull a third to death. | ||
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On April 05 2012 15:22 cascades wrote: @Tobon, How do you know for certain 6 pushes would "absolutely" put Ceph in the fire zone. It only "likely" puts him in the fire zone. Counterexample: One toy on each safe position. For example, by deduction, syllo probably started on position 18. #17. He got pushed 4 times, item is on #21. I noticed you tried to use maths from day 1 positions to try and save your ass later. You know, except for the part about toys being distributed randomly. Rule 5 is: 5. At the start of each day, every Toy will begin on the middle most queue of the non-lethal queues. However since only 2 toys can be in one spot I will randomly sprinkle you around the remaining queues to start off. It isn't random, it's clustered in the middle. Interestingly, I think rule 5 is actually misstated. If you check day 1, we were centered around #12 which is the middle of the entire queue. Notice how 9 toys are above and 9 below, and 2 directly on. That's what happened in DFM1, as well, centered around the middle of the queue. If rule 5 was entirely accurate, we should've been centered around the non-lethal portion, so we ought to have had our centroid at #10 rather than #12. My assumption is that we remain centered around #12, 2 toys on, and 7 or 8 above and below. Because of the pushing past already full slots mechanism, the important point for determining number of pushes to reach fire is really how many gaps there are, rather than absolute position. Simulate it and see for yourself. | ||
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On April 05 2012 18:39 Acrofales wrote: pushes on bluelightz pulls on cascades Have more coffee. You missed that Nemesis (double-)pulled bluelightz after the reset, and therefore is a terrible push target. 6 pushes isn't going to get him into the fire. Reverse the direction of these two. | ||
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On April 05 2012 14:15 Tobon wrote: My vote for second push target is Mr.Zentor right now. But we have lots and lots of time. I don't want to see any more pushing at all for at least 12 hours or so. We scum hunt, we make cases, hopefully we get one more. If we're lucky we even pull a third to death. Since that point, both BlueLightz and Wiggles have completely ignored the fact that Syllo is already doomed and have now wasted their pushes on him trying to look like they are doing something useful, when in fact, they are throwing their pushes away for absolutely no town purpose. They were both on my potential scum list, even though I was reading others as scummier, but this is both of them completely ignoring discussion and acting 100% anti-town. Please use all remaining pulls on BlueLightz and all remaining pushes on Mr.Wiggles. ##Push Mr.Wiggles | ||
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On April 06 2012 00:14 Nemesis wrote: Well at least syllogism is dying today. And yes, we probably don't have enough town PoPs to kill anyone else today, although we might get lucky with positioning and get Wiggles. They should be immediate lynch targets on day 3. | ||
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On April 01 2012 13:43 Mr. Wiggles wrote: My bold. What an odd turn of phrase, from day 1 before anything happened.What do you guys think about the item? Partway through day 1, we can decide on one person who we want to get it, and then who we want to push them and pull them back. The thing is, the people who do that have their voting powers nullified, so we need to decide on who would be best to do it to, and keep it organized, so no one "accidentally" goes off the queue. On April 02 2012 01:56 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Sure isn't following his own advice today, is he?Maybe something like every push/pull has to have an explanation. Don't push someone until you make a case in the thread, and hopefully get a few people to agree with you. On April 04 2012 22:59 Mr. Wiggles wrote: The already widely commented upon attempt to find the townie with the gun.Has anybody claimed the kill on Palmar or Shrubbles yet? This is important to me. If you shot one of Palmar/Shrubbles, and haven't claimed yet, please do so. I won't be mad. I promise. There is literally nothing else in his filter. It's all empty words and waffling back and forth about Bluelightz, trying to get town-cred but then dissuade us from actually doing anything to kill him. | ||
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On April 03 2012 12:30 VisceraEyes wrote: I'm okay with any of those 4 dying (syllo, Sbrubbles, Wiggles or cascades) - they all have about the same chance of flipping scum as far as I'm concerned (pretty high). Personally I prefer a syllo/Wiggles double-kill...but that's not feasible with current activity. I'll also note that VE was reading Wiggles as scum. This was his last post related to other people (the ones after were only about his own Pony Powers), before he took the hidden push and burned horribly 30 minutes later. | ||
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On April 06 2012 00:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Are you being purposefully thick? There's nothing that says that Syllo didn't get a teleportation item and switched himself with someone, or that if he's scum they don't have hidden pulls or a queue altering ability that can save him. It's much better to just push him off the edge, than let him sit there and then we can all act surprised and confused if he ends up living through the end of the day. Use your head. Unfortunately for you, sir, I don't think you are actually that stupid. If Syllo got the teleportation item he gets off scott free for the day and a couple extra pushes do nothing at all - they are completely wasted because it's like starting over from no pushes. Hidden pulls or a queue altering ability is total WIFOM. Syllo was at location #21. He'd need 3 hidden pulls to get him out of the fire. There's been absolutely no evidence that such a thing exists, and it would be unbelievably powerful if scum had such an ability to privately undo a town lynch. You are making no sense, which means you are trying to cover for throwing your push away, which makes you red. | ||
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On April 06 2012 03:54 layabout wrote: People with pulls left: ... Tobon ... I'm confused by this. I used my pull here: link But sure enough, it isn't in the list of used PoPs. Mistake in the list of PoPs, or did something weird happen? | ||
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On April 06 2012 05:33 Snarfs wrote: At this point all three of you are probably town and I'd love to hear your thoughts on someone besides Cephiro and Tobon I agree, that cascades has been dropping in my scumometer estimation in favor of others. I'll answer though: I don't know what Ceph's power is, and I don't know why he thought it would work (thought nullification was used up? he thought he had some defense against it?). Obviously whatever it was, he was wrong. I just picked up the pieces afterwards. I have already responded to your other questions regarding randomness of the queue. I don't see anyone actually arguing with my mathematics or the demonstrated examples of what the queue looks like at the beginning of each day in this game and in DFM1. | ||
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On April 06 2012 23:53 Dirkzor wrote: Good point. Assuming he's not near the top (and so require lots more pulls than pushes), I think first order of business should be to pull him to death. No waiting for the fire, no chance of moving onto the item, just straight off.We should just kill syllo since he is now not afraid to use his PoPs in an obvious anti town matter. So the sooner he dies the better. | ||
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On April 07 2012 00:11 Dirkzor wrote: Do you guys think there are any specific reason he swapped with layabout (and thus killing him) besides that layabout was in the bottom? The not able to PoP limitation is in the description of layabout's role in DFM1, so it's possible that the scum team figured he was a good chance to be the town vig. Also -- completely unprovable and unnecessary speculation -- I think they didn't know that layabout was at the bottom. I think the Darkness power only being able to see 1 queue position next to him is likely still accurate (full vision would be incredibly powerful). Unfortunately, Syllo started the day next to Cephiro, so he could well be the Darkness toy, and therefore know exactly how many pushes to allow before some other scum nullified in the fire zone before the item. | ||
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On April 10 2012 23:22 Cephiro wrote: I knew Tobon was the De Ja Vu Toy and I tried to tell him to save it for later for a worse scenario, but I doubt it would have saved the whole game for us later either. I had a lot of frustration about when to use my power, actually. When 3/4ers of the people PoPing are going to be townies, undoing all previous PoPs for the day is going to seem like a scummy move to a lot of people. :-) I used it when I did, not because I thought you couldn't save yourself, but because being the one to keep you alive gave me a lot of town cred, and I figured your power would be more useful later on than mine. I also (at that point) was really hesitant about pulling off Bluelightz (even though I'd pulled him myself). He wasn't helpful at all, but I kept finding it hard to believe he was scum. So undoing all his pulls didn't seem like a drawback at the time, either. (I got wrongly convinced that he was scum afterwards, though.) I think my main problem was getting over-interested in figuring out the mechanics and setup and not enough time actually reading people. | ||
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