Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia IX
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hihi | ||
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haha i got paranoid for a second. no worries tho ![]() | ||
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This is my second game of TL forum mafia. I hope that there will be much more activity in this one compared to the last. Post up everyone. we dont bite, much. | ||
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Heh, and people had problems with my early FoS. Cmon everybody. we cant have a game without the people ![]() | ||
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1.) Mementoss 3.) Artanis[Xp] 7.) michaelthe 10.) Ninja4ever. 12.) froggynoddy If you are on this list, just post up and be talkative when you can. The worst thing we can have is an inactive town like last game. Without them posting, there cant be any way to find scum mistakes, so we should post as much as possible so they cant get away with lurking. | ||
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Glad to see that more people posted, will check to see who that leaves in a minute. The one thing that i do not like about everyone deciding to lynch a lurker is the strange scrambling that happens if the lurker does happen to post up. in reverse, if the player shows activity in the very beginning and then cuts off all contact for over a day and a half (what happened with firmtofu last game) i dont consider to be that good of a lynch, as i find that if the person was in fact scum, they would be there and try to post to defend themselves. Therefore if all lurkers do post, we should vote to lynch whoever seems the most suspicious at that given moment. @Virtu, I want to play like last game, but with less emotion and OMGUS. it really killed me there. | ||
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On March 22 2012 23:38 Mementoss wrote: Another thing I learned from last game and I think Nova_Terra will agree with me is, making connections (or anti-connections) between players is absolutely useless until the town flips its first scum. Keep track of it for all means, just no need to post it until scum is flipped and it can be used with case analysis (can't stand alone as a case). Cause you can literally find these connections between most players, its just the nature of the game, and the town trying to work as a team. Yeah, you are totally right, and i think i have learned that now too. Also, another point against not posting Connection Cases is that it alienates people and if you are town and at least 1-2 of them are town, they are less likely to vote alongside you if you put them as a possible scum connection. If one does flip scum, THEN post your connection analysis. As expected, i went back through our list and everybody had posted. If we are going to lynch a lurker, we'll have to keep track of filters over the next day. I should think that Seviro will be here soon, believe he said something about posting "tomorrow" | ||
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But i think i've learned :D | ||
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Seviro, while i agree with your post, i dont get how we can put pressure on lurkers but not lynch them fast, as thats really the only way to pressure them. Froggy, can you explain what you mean by, " a 'defensive' lurker."? a bit confused. I am hoping that there will be a bit more content by tomorrow morning (for europeans that is) and then i will start going through some filters to hopefully get where people are coming from. | ||
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If you have any thoughts, please post them. The more active town, the merrier. | ||
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Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline? | ||
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Seviro, im okay with either. | ||
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Rise of Fenix is playing in a scummy manner Sc2system and Ninja4ever. are not posting much aside from introductions and explaining why they werent there, etc. Gossemerr, Mementoss, and Michaelthe are playing aggressively, which i like, as even if they are scum they are driving discussion and with their current level of activity would probably make a noticable mistake soon. I would like a lynch on Rise of Fenix more than i would sc2 or ninja, as 1. I find his posts to be relatively wishy washy and scummy and 2. he is either bad scum or bad town(not trying to be offensive, but your play seems very inexperienced, even if this is a newbie game) in either case, it hurts us more than it helps us. When compared with the lurkers (sc2 and ninja) the lurkers behavior, or lack of one, isnt really hurting the town as much as confusing us is. However, there is still plenty of time for rise and the lurkers to post more content that should be useful. I cant wait to hear Sc2System's 'stronger opinion'. | ||
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im waiiiting.... | ||
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TL;DR: i dont really think there is evidence enough to warrant lynching him as he is an active player whose posts dont seem inherently scummy. | ||
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nice catch on that slip, but seeing as this IS a newbie game, it isnt very telling. at all. I hate that it works that way, but yeah, i should think that scum slips (even if they are from townies) will happen relatively often. Anyways, as a general note to everybody, please dont make assumptions like this (even if they are about me.) i would prefer us to be looking at all the options than i would have us assuming peoples roles, at least in our minds. Artanis, can you tell me your thoughts on Rise of Fenix? if it came down between him and a lurker, who would you rather lynch and why? | ||
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Mementoss, the main thing thats changed is that i am trying hard to not let behaviors bother me and change the way i play. I took a lot of flak last time around, and while i am still trying to be active and helpful i dont want to go all out aggression because i will get too caught up like last time. even to the point of deluding myself that i was totally right. I defended artanis because i think that it was an innocent mistake, albeit a bad one. For my reasons previously stated, i am voting for Rise of Fenix. his play is not helping us at all, and i do not find artanis or anyone else (until i analyze the filters hard tomorrow morning) more suspicious. ##Vote: Rise of Fenix | ||
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Once again, sorry all, I promise that i will stick to it for sure next time. I will be on for another hour or so. | ||
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What is the current vote count? if necessary i can switch to sc2system to prevent a no lynch, but only in the next 45 minutes. | ||
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On March 24 2012 08:12 Rise Of Fenix wrote: sorry about this, but in 1 hour I will be inactive for 24 hours. Religious obligations. I have to vote someone, and I think it is still michaelthe ## lynch michaelthe humm, well, sad about waking up to have lost a green but with this... at least there wont be a modkill or something ![]() Lets use this night cycle to put some cases together. | ||
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Where are our other europeans at? | ||
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I hate that he didnt even defend himself too.... | ||
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Okay, so I would like to share my suspicions on our acquaintance, BlueyD. + Show Spoiler + On March 22 2012 13:43 BlueyD wrote: Hey, I'm BlueyD and this is my first game of Mafia ever, but I've read a few here on TL and I think I have a good feel for how this works. This said, it's been 3 hours since we've gotten our roles, and no one has spoken yet. I'd like to see everyone at least post to confirm activity. Whoever doesn't start posting is already suspicious at worst, and useless at best. We don't want any mafia hiding among the lurkers. I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens. Good luck to all, and may the most able survive! BlueyD makes the first post of the game, in which he appears to want to take a leadership position in the town. He dictates what behavior is suspicious, and what is useless, pretty much stating obvious things, which he can get some credit for as he is the first poster in the game. One thing that I note is “I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens.” This was 3 hours after the game started, and if he is mafia, it would have been plenty of time for his mafia to have gotten their roles and know that they will all post soon, and that they are not inactive. However, this post is not very suspicious. Main thing to note: Point of this post seems to be, “Hey look, I am here and I am playing like a leader, and everyone is more suspicious than me because I am the first poster! + Show Spoiler + On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote: People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice: Seviro (one useless post, but he's there) Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching) Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later) No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker. Here he tries to seem more like the leader. Making a lurker list, but not really posting any content. “This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker” This is not content, this is “obvious”. There is a decent sized gap between many of his posts. He is coming across in a leader way, but is being allowed to sit back and chill, a position that mafia would love. + Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 11:44 BlueyD wrote: Just a quick summary of Rise of Fenix's behavior up to now... - Admits to not reading the rules and says some really confused stuff about voting as a result - Accuses michaelthe due to his eagerness to lynch an inactive, when many have argued we should do this - Tells michaelthe he would vote for him if there were an unlynch in the game - Doesn't actually put in a vote for michaelthe once he knows he can unvote later, says he has no reads instead - Uses really short posts frequently I don't know if the guy is awful scum or awful townie. All I know is he's awful. If he's town, he'll be absolutely useless to us, but if he's mafia, he'll quickly give himself out on the 2nd day, at this pace. I'm putting my chips on bad townie for the moment. To Rise Of Fenix: You better come up with some real information as to why you acted like you acted (see above points), or else I WILL put my vote in for your lynch. --- Ninja4Ever. and sc2system seem to be our 2 big time lurkers at the moment. They, together with Fenix, are part of my top 3 should lynch list. Here, BlueyD throws serious suspicion to multiple people. Already beginning to plan for day 2? He goes hard on RoF, and notes that Ninja4ever. and Sc2system are lurking and should be lynch targets as well. Note the part that says, “To Rise Of Fenix: You better come up with some real information as to why you acted like you acted (see above points), or else I WILL put my vote in for your lynch.” + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 06:58 BlueyD wrote: Just came back from work, was reading a bit at work as well but I didn't keep notes. I was waiting on a reply by Fenix which I guess never came. I'll grab dinner then post my analysis in... I hope 1 hour or so. + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 07:11 BlueyD wrote: Fine, fine, fine, I'll vote now. ##Vote: sc2system Reasoning incoming after dinner. Uhh, what? From telling RoF that he better explain or die to voting sc2system after RoF posts nothing? Wishy washy and contradicting. Now, BlueyD starts posting his suspicions on Sc2System, making another probable lynch target for either day 1 or day 2. + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 07:49 BlueyD wrote: We've really got no news on Rise of Fenix so my analysis from my last post about him hasn't changed. Earlier today, I was 50/50 on lynching Fenix or sc2system, since my 3rd top 3 pick (ninja4ever) started posting, but then sc2system started acting... Reaaaally scummy. I'll point to just one thing: Between his vote for Rise Of Fenix and his vote for No Lynch (due, according to him, to Rise now contributing), Rise Of Fenix has ONLY ONE POST. And it says: That's a contribution?! That's even more useless than the rest! I don't know why he chose to vote no lynch at that moment, but his reason makes NO SENSE. Maybe it had to do with him being under attack and trying to make us think he was just a little peaceful guy? ... And then he votes for Virtu out of nowhere. Pure bandwagon jumping, and not one that was going anywhere either way. Virtu hasn't been scummish at all, and while he had a few hours of inactivity, when he posts it at least makes sense. I don't know if we'd get more info out of a Rise of Fenix lynch, but it doesn't matter to me when I'm getting huuuuuge scumvibes from sc2master. First thing, earlier today you were 50/50 on Fenix/System? Because that’s not what saying, “Or I WILL vote for your lynch” sounds like. At all. Then, he goes on to criticize System for thinking that Rise of Fenix’s post that was pleading to live is a contribution. Saying you will vote for Fenix if he doesn’t contribute, and then voting someone for thinking that a post which in your eyes, ISNT A CONTRIBUTION, is one, doesn’t make sense at all. And then he goes on to say that he doesn’t care if we would get more info from a RoF lynch as he is getting “scumvibes” AKA gut feeling from sc2system. Why would you not care if we would get more information? Information is one thing that mafia have that we can take from them. That’s what we need to beat them. Gut feeling is better than information? The worst part is that his gut feeling is because sc2system thinks RoF’s post was a contribution. What? You just said you would lynch RoF without a contribution. And then didn’t. At least for me, the only thing I would get from that is a New town/bad town vibe from Sc2system. What I think is happening here is he thinks for some reason that Sc2System will be able to clarify himself more on night 1/day 2, and that Rise wont, and therefore wants to try to lynch System ASAP so he can also get a RoF vote in the next day. And then he notes that he would switch his vote if necessary, which would just allow him to accuse the other guy the next day. After this BlueyD posts some fluff about being here, notes repeatedly that he wants a sc2system lynch more, even hinting to rise to vote for sc2system. Manipulation from our wannabe town leader. When he realizes that the vote is more likely to go through on rise, he switches. After the lynch his only comment is, : + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 23:54 BlueyD wrote: Of course we'll modify our opinions based on night 1 and day 2, but for the moment I still think my case against sc2system remains reasonably strong, and if there were a 2nd vote right now I'm sure he would get lynched on the spot. Once again he tries to act the leader, telling us that we will change our thoughts based on events that pass, and notes how System is still a good lynch candidate. Overall BlueyD is trying to act the leader while sitting back and letting things happen, letting everyone destroy themselves as he watches from a safe distance and guides us every so often. He is manipulating it so that we can come off of one townie lynch to go right to another lynch, and constantly reminding us that we should be suspicious of System still. His voting is wishy washy, (not how he changes his votes, but how he decides to vote for system in the first place), posts lots of fluff and corrects many typos etc, and has not done a good job explaining himself. ##FoS: BlueyD | ||
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As Artanis just said, I do find the manner in which he tried to take leadership to be scummy. He has been guiding the town towards a certain lynch from this position, without being forced to post much analysis, which i think is a result of having made a couple posts that seemed to be from an authoritative position. Another thing that i did not like from this is that as he is seemingly capable, he isnt posting as much content as i think he could be, like what i should have noticed about you last game mementoss. Prelim votes is OK with me, but i think that as much of the town is relatively inactive getting a clear consensus right away will be a bit challenging. I also dont want people to leave a prelim vote and forget about it until relatively late in the day because of this inactivity. Please stay active! We cant just let scum lurk this out. | ||
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"This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker." " Of course we'll modify our opinions based on night 1 and day 2, but for the moment I still think my case against sc2system remains reasonably strong, and if there were a 2nd vote right now I'm sure he would get lynched on the spot." I may be misreading the second one wrong, but even so, the fact that he has been allowed to maintain an authoritative posture without pressure isnt good. | ||
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At least, sc2system was relatively worthless, so it should be a bit easier to go scumhunting. BlueyD, i kind of think the point of the hit on froggynoddy is in essence exactly what you said. he was off the radar, and its hard to read anything from the hit. I will go into his filter today, but i really dont expect to find much, unless its based on WIFOM. | ||
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On March 26 2012 02:27 Mementoss wrote: Alright, this activity is bad, its day 2 its crucial we get a mafia kill here. Lets up the activity and find one of these scum. With that being said Im going to present a case right now. Lets look at the filter shall we? Nova_Terra: His meta is completely different. He explained that he changing the way he plays to improve his game. As vanilla town, he had long thought out posts, and pressure posts. In this game I read through his first 2 pages of filter, it 50% spam. The other 50% is dedicated to either responding to people, or asking peoples opinions on things usually leading the town in circles. Honestly, I can't even find anything to quote because its all useless. He seems to be posting in fear and holding back. He posts a case about BlueyD, but it was very forced and weak. Things were taken out of context to make them look scummy, and things that weren't scummy were meant to look scummy. Such as the leadership thing. Here is another thing that makes him seem suspicious. He totally ignored talk about the vig shot, until after it was done. He didn't want to push it cause he knew it would make him suspicious, but he didn't want to stop it because he knew sc2system was town. Maybe I should be suspicious for bringing it up, but as a mafia wouldn't that be too risky to do? I think the people we should look at are the people who ignored the topic who were active, these people being: Nova, Seviro, and BlueyD (but he was defending himself) Says you shouldn't have shot, yet didn't say anything during the night when it was actually important. Also in many instances in this game he is constantly apologetic. Doesn't want to get on anyones bad side, and is just slipping by. + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 06:47 Nova_Terra wrote: I am so sorry, i got caught up in a game of quake. I really feel bad. Mementoss, the main thing thats changed is that i am trying hard to not let behaviors bother me and change the way i play. I took a lot of flak last time around, and while i am still trying to be active and helpful i dont want to go all out aggression because i will get too caught up like last time. even to the point of deluding myself that i was totally right. I defended artanis because i think that it was an innocent mistake, albeit a bad one. For my reasons previously stated, i am voting for Rise of Fenix. his play is not helping us at all, and i do not find artanis or anyone else (until i analyze the filters hard tomorrow morning) more suspicious. ##Vote: Rise of Fenix On March 24 2012 06:52 Nova_Terra wrote: Wow, i really messed up the time. Once again, sorry all, I promise that i will stick to it for sure next time. I will be on for another hour or so. On March 25 2012 07:23 Nova_Terra wrote: Oh, sorry. I didnt read over the thread while i wrote it and was going by filters. I did understand that he had a reason for it. I just didnt think that the reason made much sense when he had said that he would vote for RoF if he didnt contribute. As Artanis just said, I do find the manner in which he tried to take leadership to be scummy. He has been guiding the town towards a certain lynch from this position, without being forced to post much analysis, which i think is a result of having made a couple posts that seemed to be from an authoritative position. Another thing that i did not like from this is that as he is seemingly capable, he isnt posting as much content as i think he could be, like what i should have noticed about you last game mementoss. Prelim votes is OK with me, but i think that as much of the town is relatively inactive getting a clear consensus right away will be a bit challenging. I also dont want people to leave a prelim vote and forget about it until relatively late in the day because of this inactivity. Please stay active! We cant just let scum lurk this out. On March 25 2012 05:50 Nova_Terra wrote: sorry, got ninja'ed, i meant that to be for BlueyD. Overall his play is just spammy, hes not taking the town forward, his meta is completely off his vanilla. He has had one unique opinion in 3 pages of filter. He seems to be just the one asking the questions, and apologizing. Rather than analysing play and applying pressure. He is taking the town in circles. He is probably in the scum QT posting huge plans, while in here just spamming up the thread. The only reason I would think he was town, is because he defended Artanis's scum slip, and now it is shaping up for Artanis to be town. Other than that, I would be very sure this guy is scum. Maybe he just defended Artanis, to stay away from the same opinion of his scumbuddy seviro, who quickly after Artanis's case on him OMGUS'd and voted Artanis. But that is just WIFOM. ##Vote: Nova_Terra Ok. I just went over last game briefly. Starting off with, i made an apparently "bad move" by FoS'ing somebody early. Then, i got mad and frustrated, and ended up spamming defense posts and some OMGUS. At least in the pages i read, i was responding to people calling me out and playing aggressively because i was lashing out at people. After last game, i learned that i wanted to play in a more "emotionless" manner where it wouldnt screw me up and cause me to post cases and analysis that goes totally incorrect because my mind wanted to lynch them for even daring to accuse something i did to be bad or wrong. I wanted to play more like Mementoss (which is a bad example as he was scum, but still accurate) but he really did seem like a helpful townie, and he just seemed like his behavior never changed when different things happened. His posts didnt have OMGUS, or terrible cases. I wanted to do just that. And that i feel accounts for my meta. My pressure posts made me feel like i didnt actually do anything. We ended up letting a mafia through and a townie die. Yet, I dont even get how it could have helped. We pressured a townie who posted and then left, and he didnt respond and so he died. Then i received flak for switching my vote off him when i thought he was innocent later. All that this reinforced to me was that i shouldnt play the way my brain thinks. because its suspicious, etc. Enter this game. It starts in a week where i am busy to begin with with many tests, and my brain was scrambled to begin with. And i knew that i wanted to change up my play and play without this emotion crap. Because it was making me scummy. I've been trying to let people know that i agree with them in some issues here, and others there, to make myself as transparent as possible. And then every now and again, when some posts went through me, I went a little into rage mode. Immediately to shut it down, i kinda held back on analysis so i wouldnt let it influence my play, which i realize now makes no sense because by shutting down the analysis it was influencing my play.I was kinda scared about how i would come across because of how i was feeling. Strangely enough, this weekend i have had a relatively busy social schedule. Thats kind of new for me, and i realize this. Then i started missing deadlines (that i myself had made) and just not posting on time, making stupid lapses in judgement (like not reading the thread alongside filters and taking BlueyD's post out of context) as a result of me being out and about and/or playing games with friends. And i feel so bad about it, because i really didnt want to come off as suspicious but because of these little things i found that i was coming across in that manner, at least to myself, and thats why i've been apologising. Its so hard to be transparent when i was screwing up these little things, and i feel bad for making it so hard on the other townies to read me. However, i was spending some time looking over filters. I still maintain that i find the leadership thing to be scummy. I cant remember if i explained why i did in a previous post, but please ask if you want me to again. Dont want to waste space if i dont have to. Looking over the case, it definitely felt to me like it was certainly warranted and some things were suspicious, but it also felt like my case on seviro last game. I dont get why my analysis is apparently so bad, but all i know is that im trying to put tons of effort on these cases and nobodys really agreeing with it and it doesnt do anything.it feels terrible to be putting all the time and feeling into it and having it do nothing. Last night i came in after an exciting day out in the city, and finished my case, and then decided to relax for a little while and watch some MLG. yeah, i did see something about vigilante shot on sc2system, but at the time wasnt concerned about it and actually thought that it made sense as we wouldnt waste the day arguing about him (which i didnt post because people were taking flak for making posts to just agree with people), and only when i was literally falling asleep did i realize that the vigilante shot is pretty much a free kill against mafia if its used right, and didnt feel like getting up to go post to state my opinion. Not because i knew system was town or anything like that, I was just too damn tired around 1 in the morning. Which was another thing that i apologized for as i should have gotten up to do that. So, to end this defense, I want to add my reads on everybody so far. Mementoss: Leaning far town, seems very inno which scares me as thats how i was thinking last game. Seviro: leaning scum, actually. I hope to provide analysis on him tonight or tomorrow during the day. artanis: most likely to be town, at least in my eyes Virtu: Relatively null. I havent really gotten any vibes from him at all. Posts some analysis (of last games play etc) but doesnt really seem to do much with it at least in my eyes. Nova_Terra (yes i am putting myself on my own list): null. hard to read because of not posting thoughts when they seem to arise. Michaelthe: null leaning scummy. makes some posts that i find were pretty good early game, but then he just randomly drops off and doesnt post much. One thing in his favor in my eyes is how he has been playing aggressively. Gossemerr: Null leaning town. I like the aggressiveness however. Ninja4ever.:Null. not a very active player, but he does come and post his thoughts a couple times a day. I dont like his activity however. BlueyD: Null leaning scummy. I still think my points on the position he has been taking in the game are valid, and i find that he got defensive pretty dang fast. | ||
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Yeah, it is an apologetic post about playing different than normal, as that is what seems to be accounting for the case against me. Main points against me seem to be meta difference, posting in fear, and ignoring vigi shot talk until after it was over, and i kinda think i addressed those. | ||
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Some of the parts are spoilered at the end to save space. On March 23 2012 03:50 Seviro wrote: + Show Spoiler + On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote: People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice: Seviro (one useless post, but he's there) Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching) Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later) No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker. On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was q My post wasn't useless, I had to post something before going to bed and I can't post while i'm asleep sorry ![]() As for the lurker lynch we should really put pressure on this, as Mementoss and Nova said, last game all three scums were very active and it was easy for them to control the flow of the game. It is useless to have the number advantage if half of the town only post once in a while just to make sure they are not modkilled. If you look at last day of last game (SNMMVIII) we were 5 town/3 scums and in one day we lynched a townie and 2 others got modkilled, and one of the lurkers was a Blue. This overall inactivity was a good part of why we lose the game since every lurker that we targetted flipped town. That said we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast because last game's situation will happen again and we will die horribly. This post kinda came off weird to me. posts some stuff about last game, says how we shouldnt be inactive, and ends on kind of a weird note about pressuring lurkers but not lynching too fast. which is especially strange when later in the day he randomly votes for a lurker. On March 23 2012 07:58 Seviro wrote: there's no haste to vote yet, it's just that you said you would wait about and hour before the deadline before your vote, which is really late. It will be best for everyone if we say something like 8 to 6 hour before the deadline we should post what is our vote at that moment. At this point we can discuss and see what would be the best for the town. If at the time of the "soft" deadline you have no one that you think is more suspicious than the other you can always vote for no-lynch and change your vote later. This is one of the posts that i feel the weirdest about. he says that we should have some soft deadline which i had already stated and he agreed on, and then says we can discuss and that if someone has nobody they think is suspicious at all they can just vote No-Lynch no problem and then just switch it later when they feel like? Seems to me like hes encouraging sc2system-like behavior. really weird. On March 23 2012 08:05 Seviro wrote: It depends, on day 1 it is bad since we have no informations whatsoever if we don'T lynch someone, but later in the game a no lynch can be better than a mislynch. It does seems scummy but at time it can be good (rarely tho). But my point was not to no lynch, it was that you can vote no-lynch like 6-8 hour before the deadline if you don't know who to vote for and then with the discussion that follow you can make up your mind. Then he clears this up saying not to no-lynch, but I still don’t think that his point makes sense, its just encouraging people to say that they are undecided, then wait until last minute and flip with little explanation of their own. On March 24 2012 03:10 Seviro wrote: + Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 23:55 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Time to bring another suspect to the table. Introductory post. Pretty much no content other than saying he'll post again later. Wants to pressure for lurker lynch when this is pretty much established in town, the whole paragraph goes on about how lurking is bad which has pretty much been established already. Somewhat defends lurkers in the same post which is odd. Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people. Nothing of real worth here. These are exactly the type of contributions that scum is fine with doing, as they don't really 'help' the town in any way. The Rise of Fenix train is going nicely, which if he's just a bad townie is fine for mafia. Are you suddenly suggesting to no lynch? We've pretty much all agreed that not lynching day 1 is bad because of lack of information. People should vote on suspicion regardless. Continuing on with something that really isn't that crucial and if people agree to 8 hours instead of 6 there's nothing groundbreaking that will be decided. Based on all these posts that pretty much say nothing at all and seem to want to blend in most of all which seems like scum behaviour to me, though it's just a suspicion, I'm voting for Seviro for now. At worst it'll spark some more discussion. ##Vote Seviro I already answered what I meant by that, pressuring and lynching are two different thing. Pressuring is forcing them to post by asking them directly their opinion on a subject so that we can more precisely find who is scum and who is not. A scum under pressure is most likely to post than a town in my opinion. Ok, so I can't agree with anyone that's what you're saying? I mean I wasn'T online after Nova question and Froggy kind of answered him in my place and I just pointed out that it was indeed what I meant. Ok, so now I'm suspicious because i'm not badwagonning? I don'T really see your point here. Way to miss the point, I won't bother explaining again since what you quoted was clear and you just seem to want to make me look scummy by making me say what I didn'T say. It is not that crucial but if we can come up with something like this we will be a lot more organized and will have time to discuss all the votes before the actual deadline. Once again I explained it very well. Now that you put yourself on the stage, let's take a look at you. + Show Spoiler + On March 22 2012 21:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Hey guys, just woke up, sorry for not replying yet. 3am is quite late for us Europeans, but I'm here now ![]() This is my third or fourth game of TL Mafia, I've organized Insane Mafia before which was an absolutely insane game and a ton of fun. I'm also pro lynching someone on day 1 as lynches are the only reliable way to kill mafia. We don't know if there's a vigilante in the game, but I don't think we can count on it. We should also treat any roleclaims with suspicion. Don't blindly follow anyone that claims, or anyone that makes long posts. Think for yourself and don't jump on bandwagons. From what I've seen in other games this is generally what kills towns. Mafia is by definition more organized so they're better at bandwagoning, though a smart mafia will never have everyone voting on one person. However, if there's any risk of a mafia getting lynched they'll normally switch their votes off so anyone that switches votes at the last minute should be viewed with suspicion. Introductory post, little content else than the obvious and some WIFOM toward the end + Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 05:39 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Why would you not post your thoughts now instead of one hour before the deadline? We could actually discuss them if you post it now, there's no reason not to. On of the first to tell what everyone else will say after. (People can have the same opinion, it'S not necessary badwagonning) + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 01:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote: @Nova_Terra however bandwagoning on everything and making large posts that basically say "I agree" IS scummy, because the length of the post can make it seem like you're contributing when in fact you're not saying anything new. Sure, others have done this as well, but I haven't seen anyone else make such long posts without any real 'content'. I agree that my posts are kind of long but just because you are missing every point that I make it doesn't mean that I have no content. + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 02:07 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Also, to my defense, if I was mafia I'd probably have a large accusatory post proofread by the other mafia. The chance of a slip like that happening in that case are much smaller. And to correct myself, when I said town I simply meant all players, not specifically town aligned. This defense is not valid as it is only WIFOM. (It's a newbie game after all) Now I hate to do that, but I need to vote on you for now. In your case on me you were purposely (or not) missing all my point to make me look scummy and that for me is a lot more scummy. so for now ##Vote: Artanis[Xp] I don’t really think that seviro handled defending this case well.it came off very defensive and the end was just OMGUS. One thing I want to note is that he says pressuring is asking people to post thoughts and respond to questions, and lynching is voting them down. In his next few posts he just goes on about how rise of fenix is just probably bad in general, but it isn’t really helping anything. He doesn’t want to lynch him, but doesn’t really present any other option? Scummy. And then when RoF posts saying he will try to make it up he goes a bit weird. On March 24 2012 05:48 Seviro wrote: Dude you still have about 6 hour left before today's deadline. At the rate thi is going you won'T be alive tomorrow anyway, if you want to defend yourself and step up your play it is today. With a post like this it seems like you don'T even try so we might as well lynch you right now. At this point it starts to go back to the thing about how he just wants to pressure lurkers and not lynch. Now hes just threatening him to post or die, which isn’t really wanting to “not lynch lurkers immediately” On March 24 2012 06:00 Seviro wrote: I want to point out that it'S been a bit more than 22 hour since virtu last post. He did said he'll post today but I have yet to see anything from him. I think for now i'll put my vote on him until he comes out. ##unvote: Artanis[Xp] ##Vote: Virtu Lolwut? This is just…. Says lurkers should be pressured (which apparently means asking them directly for their opinion and not voting >Votes for lurker for no reason other than him not having been there for 22 hours That’s just contradicting and scummy. Then he switches between Virtu and RoF (also a lurker) In his next couple posts he just adds how system needs to be looked at. Oh, and then theres this which bugged me a bit On March 25 2012 04:56 Seviro wrote: Hum, you have some good point there but you could have add these two post as well + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 07:57 BlueyD wrote: Note: I haven't vote counted, but I'm still here for a few hours (MLG yay!) and will switch for Rise if we need a majority when the time limit gets near, but I would much prefer to see sc2master lynched. + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 08:38 BlueyD wrote: Hint to Rise, if he's still around: Switching his vote to sc2system might let him stay alive another day. It seems like it is 100% sure that these two are the lynch target for the first 2 day when everything can happen during day 1 that can change anything. Personnally after seeing Rise flip Town I think that Sc2system is most likely a town that can't put his thought together. I believe that his day 1 posting are mostly inexperienced post and that if he try a bit he could come up with some good thing. I just know that for now i'm not willing to vote for him on day 2 yet. After I post my case, the only thing I get from him is Hum, some good point there. No other thoughts on the case at all. Not really suspicious there, but to not share any thoughts on it at all? His thoughts on system were pretty much yeah hes probably bad townie but not sure if worth a lynch etc. Yeah, everyone knows hes suspicious. On March 25 2012 06:43 Seviro wrote: This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play. Mhm, compare this to Pressuring is forcing them to post by asking them directly their opinion on a subject so that we can more precisely find who is scum and who is not. No? you call a pressure play a play where you ask someone to post their opinion on a subject. + Show Spoiler + On March 26 2012 03:04 Seviro wrote: Ok, so now, Mementoss: He was the first one to make a real case against Rise Of Fenix which really started the train rolling in my opinion. While Rise was doing a great job of sinking himself into bad and bad post, peolple started to look more into it after this case. He also was the first one to point out sc2system lurkerness.These two people had already been mentionned beforehand, respectively by Gossemer and Ninja4ever. My point is, not that it mean anything since it was the same for a lot of people, his two main suspect flipped town which is worth pointing out I think. Now, this is not scummy in itself but I also saw a little inconsistency in his posting. In his first post he states: + Show Spoiler + On March 22 2012 20:41 Mementoss wrote: Therefore, I say we lynch a lurker/useless poster day 1, unless we have a significant scum slip. Why is this beneifical to us the town, even though there is a good chance it will be a townie? 1) Helps narrow down the field for scum hunting later 2) Keeps the active ratio higher for discussion 3) Attempts to keep replacements out of the game, which are always difficult to read and deal with as one persons scum meta =/= the other persons. . Then, later he is the one who notice the slip of artanis + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 01:43 Mementoss wrote: Note the bolded/underlined, its both because its a very big mistake. A very big scum slip. Why is it such a huge deal? Because we have no clue if Nova_Terra is town. AT ALL. Here are the possibilities: 1) He is scum, he knows peoples roles, therefore he knows Nova_Terra is town. Slipped it by mistake. 2) He is scum, Nova_Terra is scum, he is quick to give the idea to the rest that Nova is confirmed town, when there is no proof behind it. Just saying it because Nova is active. 3) He is town, bad town play, making assumptions that lead to town not exploring all the possibilities, getting tunnelled away from someone (See me as mafia SNMM VIII) Dat scum slip If we follow his reasoning, At this point Artanis had 66% chance of being a scum but even then he didn't put a vote even after: He point out the slip, don't believe the defense, have stated in his first post that he would vote a lurker/useless poster unless a scum slip like this happened, be even then he doesn't put his vote on him once. Now, since Artanis is a confirmed townie now (unless a counter claim but at this point I doubt it), it is not inherently scummy but these littles inconsistencies are worth mentionning if we want to scum hunt effectively. My main suspect now is Micaelthe: Here is Froggy post about his early game so I won't have to repeat it. + Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 10:07 froggynoddy wrote: Wow. Michaelthe, I'm not sure if you are bad town or bad scum. Regardless, you seem pretty bad. You're first post states (after day 1) that you are for lurker lynch: You're second post has no content: Your third point is some very weak finger pointing: There is pretty much nothing to go by. Your content is zilch, you are putting suspicion on people who have more content than you; I have argued that forcing lurkers to post is beneficial to town, more convincingly than you have (as has seviro and to a certain extent Nova_Terra), yet you put a really weak case forward against three posters. I'm not voting for you YET but you seriously need to shape up. Accusing players who have posted content in day 1 seems scummy to me as there is so little to go by. Make a better case dude. (for all three of us) I want to add on his ultimatum thingie. + Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 07:19 michaelthe wrote: Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy. I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+ The scores are as follows: sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think) Ninja: 0,0 Froggy: 0,1,1 And, as you said and I missed: Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina) So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever ![]() Revised list: 1. Sc2system 2. Ninja 3. Rise of Fenix 4. Froggy 2 thing I want to point out with this. First thing, 3 out of 4 on this list are now dead dead townies. Second, he post an Ultimatum than never happen: Which he emphasize as being an ultimatum. Then his first actual vote happen 23 hour after his ultimatum whereas he said an ultimatum of 8 hour more so that he vote for someone that is not on his list. Which lead me to talk about the "Feudian slip" as he calls it. He seems to insist a lot on this than needed, now that we already had ROS and sc2system under the radar he bring back a point that had been discuss hours before as if since ROS and sc2system where dead men walking at this stage if he could change day 1 lynch then day 2 and 3 would have been a big mess for the town. I'll point out also that he was not the first to vote for Artanis since my vote was still on him and most of his opinion were mostly reformulating. Then, at the end of the day he just follow the bandwagon as he see that Artanis won't get lynched. Sorry for the lenght of the post, longer than expected. He posts some seeming analysis on Mementoss and more importantly TheMichael but doesn’t really do anything with it. This is his first “real” case/important analysis. Most of his content has been defense or fluff. + Show Spoiler + On March 26 2012 03:39 Seviro wrote: + Show Spoiler + On March 26 2012 03:10 michaelthe wrote: Initial Day 2 Thoughts At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look. On Seviro: (This is based heavily on his filter, pull it up if you want to see specific posts, this is already long enough without them all) First substantial post after initial wave of basic crap: He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill. Seviro's reponse to Artanis Attack. I was fairly certain Artanis was scum, after what I saw as a strong slip. But I think the vig claim was great (more on that later). I reread the Artanis / Servio post and thought Artanis' attack was simple (based on day1 stuffs..) but Serviro WAY overreacted with his defense. He went on to vote for Artanis in his defense, which is a TERRBIE move! FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix... After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis. Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix. After Day1, he posts that he thinks sc2system is town. He has defended bad play of Fenix and SC2 as town. ONLY MAFIA KNOW WHO TOWNIES ARE! He discusses the virtu vote as “pressure”. A vote with nothing behind it, with no case, nothing. He doesn't at all revisit his Artanis vote here. His most recent posts finally address the Artanis vote, his reasoning is ABSURD: He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried. + Show Spoiler + Initial Day 2 Thoughts At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look. That is purely WIFOM. It doesn't mean it at all, let's say a 8 or even a 6 hour dealine, you had 40-42 to come up with a vote at this point in the day you should have your opinion anyway. It is in no way final but this way we can have an organized town and we have actually enough time to discuss each vote. What are you talking about?. Literally all the EFFING day I've been DEFENDING Fenix in hope that he would come up with something useful, which didn'T happen. Virtu had promised us a post which was not there at the time, after he did post I switch my vote onto Fenix since his post were making less and less sense. You must be scum right? Just because I think something and it come down that I was right it doesn't mean anything. I did not accuse him rather than defending myself, I did defend myself then I accused him, this is werew the difference lies. If you have other question about this Artanis/Seviro thing feel free to ask. The main thing I noticed in his defense is really how defensive and angry he got. Scum traits. + Show Spoiler + On March 26 2012 16:04 Seviro wrote: Inb4 OMG he said he was going to bed last post and he didn'T, SCUMSCUMSCUM, by heading to bed I meant getting of the computer and doing something else before actually going to bed. I planned to take a look at the thread just before sleeping but there was 2 post adressed to me so I responded to them while they were of actuality. + Show Spoiler + On March 26 2012 14:34 michaelthe wrote: Re Seviro Attack You make two points about my ultimatum: 1) 3 out of the 4 people I posted as lurkers are now dead townies. 2) I didn't vote until 23 hours after my 8 hour ultimatum. Reponses: 1) two are dead because they are bad townines. This is the reason they were on the inactive list, this is the reason they were selected to die. The reason they are dead and on the list of inactives has the same root, this in no way makes their deaths have a causal relationship to my list. This should be completely easy to see by anyone. 2) My ultimatum was an attempt to force lurkers to post. All of them actually posted. Fenix spammed useless content, one said “I'm awake”, one said “Im drunk”. No one strictly failed, it was only mildly successful at making people post. On Artanis, you make two points: 1) I targest Artanis after we had two good targets to lynch 2) I was the second vote for Artanis, not the first I refute both of these points with one simple point: Artanis' slip was a major one. Artanis himself said so. Every Mafia guide says so. It ended up being a complete accident, but there was no way to tell this at the time. At the time, this was one of the strongest pieces of objective information we had. Your claims are terrible, they have no weight, I find them very artificial. There are a few people who have said “oops, that does look scummy”, but I have not with the above. My responses are simple, and straightforward to your meritless claims. I think you are artificially trying to make a case. About the 3 out of 4 thingie, of course this was purely WIFOM but I thought it was worth mentioning. And on the Ultimatum you did say So you are basically saying that "i'm drunk" and "i'm awake" are valuable for the town right? And for the "Feudian slip" as you like to call it I did bring it up because of the way you brought it back. You basically said everything Mementoss had already say in his post about it, but you write it in a way that make it look like you were the one to find it. And also, I forgot to mention that your answer about froggy's post that was asking you to give content was: You didn'T adress any of his claim. And on my point being weak, weightless and artificial I don't know if you saw my answer about your case on me, I countered every single point of yours without even trying and I did not say anything about your point being weak and weightless because it is useless to discredit other post the way you do it. So if you could stop with your arrogant attitude of "I'm right and I'm good, you're wrong and you suck" that would be beneficial for the town. And blueyD Yeah really. There is a difference between pointing out something and making a case on it. Anyway the goal of the small case on Mem was only to show that we need to not put him in the "almost confirmed townie" yet since on day 1 some people seemed to believe he was the most townie of us, which he may be but it is not a reason to not suspect him and to let him slip by. When you go through my filter, at least do it right : that is 3 more post where I defend him so if you claim something, don't only 1/4 post on it to make me look bad. And I did mention this defense twice because 2 people said that I jumped on the ROS train right away, which is false. Seriously, I don'T know if my english is so bad or you just can't read but i'm getting tired of repeating myself over and over again. Now I'm really going to bed. The endless irritation and defense doesn’t stop. Particularly here: + Show Spoiler + On March 26 2012 16:04 Seviro wrote: Inb4 OMG he said he was going to bed last post and he didn'T, SCUMSCUMSCUM, by heading to bed I meant getting of the computer and doing something else before actually going to bed. I planned to take a look at the thread just before sleeping but there was 2 post adressed to me so I responded to them while they were of actuality. In the post he says that the other person is understanding badly, makes this Inb4 crap, says that themichael is arrogant etc and has a certain attitude (not saying themichael isn’t scummy, hope to post my thoughts on him relatively soon after this case) but its just rude, and seems OMGUS himself. That’s my analysis on seviro. ##Vote: Seviro I wish I could have analyzed a bit more, but I can see that I am running short on time and for times sake I’ll put this out as early as possible. | ||
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I also think it’s funny that he’s leaning “scum” for Seviro and “null leaning scummy” for me, but I’m the one who got FoSed. Yes, and the delay is because i had been busy. i hadnt gone through Seviro's filter before i did yours, and so first case was on you. I would apologize but apparently i shouldnt do that. You were FoS'ed, whereas he is voted (which can still be changed). You defended relatively adequately by my standards so i gave up on you and went to him. | ||
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I thought that looking back on the game that the pressure i made then was more just suspicious early play from me and OMGUS. | ||
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On March 26 2012 10:55 Mementoss wrote: Alright lets respond to this defense. First lets start off by underlining everything Nova_Terra said about IRL, and just not read it. Why? IRL stuff has nothing to do with the game, because it can be lied about and no one would know the difference. It is not acceptable as a defense in any form. You shouldn't be scared to post as a vanilla townie. The only way scum is found is through posting your ideas. Re-read your posts from a different perspective to see how it sounds. No excuse to not be posting analysis. Stick to your guns if you think your right, correct yourself if you think you are wrong and explain why the change of thought. No apologizing needed. While you maintain your opinion on leadership, I maintain my opinion that it is bullshit. Not only is it not a good scum argument, it could scare BlueyD and other newer players away from posting, because they don't want this "leadershit" stuff to come back and haunt them. And why BlueyD? I would consider myself in that role more than him. I put out a case that lead to a townie lynch, and was the first to suggest a vigshot on another townie. Would I rathered one or both of them to flip scum? Of course. Am I pissed at myself about it? Not really. It did its job at getting rid of 2 confusing shitty players. Confirmed a townie that was leaning scum in a couple peoples eyes. And took a lot of time that woulda been wasted pushing/pressure sc2system and Artanis. Now we can continue with the game. It gained time and added information, 2 very important resources. About people not agreeing with your case and putting time into it. This game is not being able to be right and finding scum. Its about being able to convince people to agree with your opinions. No matter how much your right about finding scum, if you cant convince the rest of the town, it will not matter. Don't let this discourage you, keep getting better. About people saying its a free kill against a mafia? No it isn't. You realize how hard it would be for Artanis to survive to a point where it actually would be this situation. Hell we mighta lynched him day 2. At least it wasn't wasted in a death, and helped the town and gave information. Which is helpful at anytime. Then to end your defense you post something scummy. Ugh. This list is not helpful to me. If your posting with purpose and concisely. You should be able to know someones read on everyone just by reading their filter. The list basically says who you think is scum and half a sentence explanation. Would it not make more sense to just post a post based on the explanation? This doesn't pressure the players, it doesn't generate discussion and is easy way for mafia to "contribute" while he can just put a townie label on his mafia friends and scum on the popular choices. Im not retracting my vote on you at the moment. Let the discussion continue. I want to see some opinions. We have a relatively good chance of killing a scum today, and it would be huge to do so. Also i was spending a ton of time on my seviro case and just relaxed after that. Okay, advice taken. Why do you think that it isnt scummy to talk as if you are giving directions and then hanging back after that? after he made those posts, he didnt really do much to back up his position at all, and that made it suspicious for me. I noted BlueyD for that because he didnt really back up his position with anything meaningfull, where as you did and seemed very pro town. Yeah, i need help learning how to make my cases better. something is apparently going terribly wrong, somewhere. However, i definitely think my case vs Seviro has merit and brings up some very good points. I dont really think sc2systems death gave much information at all. correct me if i am wrong. yes, okay, maybe it isnt a free kill, but i think there are much better ways to use that shot later, if he could survive until then. A brief overview of my reads is scummy? i thought you guys were getting on my case for not posting much thoughts/analysis, and i thought this was a good way to do this. I think that a reads post can generate good discussion as it helps people see where people are coming from and it can show inconsistencies between different peoples reads. And if i was mafia it wouldnt make sense to me label my mafia friends as townie, because if one of them gets lynched (or if i did) who wouldit reflect badly on? Me/them. Also, if this is scummy to you, i want to note that seviro does pretty much the same thing (with a little bit more content) in one of his next posts. | ||
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a very precarious position o.o | ||
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Mementoss, a question for you, you said in an earlier post that you are more inclined to lynch seviro to get info on michael, correct? Then what are your thoughts now and have they changed from then? | ||
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in early game, he played aggressively to start out which i liked. however, since then, the quality of play has gone down substantially. i just took a foray into his filter. I definitely think he goes a bit overboard on his ultimatum (which he didnt follow?) and the artanis slip thing. i can see the point of both, but he went a bit too off. He had some wishy-washyness to his vote patterns, which can be explained a bit by avoiding no lynch, but it became apparent to me that ALL 3 of the people he switched between were/are town (as i think artanis is certain at this point). he jumped happily on every little mistake that has arisen throughout the game (refered to in some guide as cherry picking town mistakes i think). After last game, i actually gave up on my "discrediting tell" philosophy, where if you call some analysis/case bad, it is often a scum move because cases which have a bad reaction to them are not thought of and taken as serious as one without any opinions on it so far. upon reading his filter, what i classified as aggressiveness in playstyle went right into discrediting and being just plain rude. He frequently has been calling points terrible and weak, even refusing to respond to a so called "weak case" made by seviro i believe. entirely wrong attitude. it also seems likes hes going heavy into gossemerr without much behind it. not so sure why. I think gossemerr is leaning town, and in general his play has been helpful. anyway, if seviro wasnt more suspicious at this point in time, i would be putting down michaelthe for this lynch (unless something else big came up). its likely that my vote tomorrow will be on michaelthe bar some other case developing. Please be a replacement for virtu if nothng else. A modkill would really kill us i should think. | ||
Nova_Terra
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So, Gosse starts off the game very aggressively, which, similar to michael, i like early. his activity dropped off a bit after his first couple posts (where a good bit of aggressive voting goes on, may be WIFOM but that just doesnt seem like much of a scum behavior to me) which bothered me initially, but as time went on gosse posted relatively regurally each time bringinf things to the table. one of the first 2 RoF votes as well as bringing up sc2system etc. and because of these i am less inclined to think scum compared to a late voter. He actually has one of the smaller/smallest filters in the game, but each post is deliberate and he does post analysis that speaks to his advantage. of course, he is currently on the wrong side of the lynch today, but even so, i think he is leaning towards townie 65-70%. | ||
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On March 27 2012 05:15 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Wait what? He currently has zero votes and with 7 hours to go I highly doubt you could get enough votes on him still. This lynch is pretty much between you and seviro right now, we need to lynch a mafia. today. or we'll be wasting a day. The fact that you want to lynch Michaelthe instead is suspicious to me. You should know that with 7 hours to go the chance of someone going from 0 to 5 votes is fairly unlikely. Nono, i think you missed the last part of my post, seviro is more susp at this time, just letting you guys know where i stand for both if i live longer or if i die. | ||
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how much of a joke would this be if we were both town, we could be the very definition of screwed. still like 80% sure hes scum though. | ||
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On March 27 2012 06:29 michaelthe wrote: I am changing my vote to Nova. He was already on my short list of potential suspects. I think the initial case against his meta shift was okay, but pretty much confirmed by his reponse and ppl from last game, in addition to analysis of his posts this game and weak defense. I would also hope we get 6 votes on him rather than 5. Why? Mafia benefit from a no lynch, as the same targets would remain with no new info. A mafia could quick switch from one target to make this happen, maybe even Nova voting for himself. After seeing Seviro vpte himself, the other option is that both of the two targets tonight are red. Seviro and Nova could be planning to swap votes last second in order to score the no lynch. They could both argue this is better for them, since they both suggest self preservation as the motive. (Although this may be weaker since I am posting this). Nova has been posting some random analysis in the past few hours. This could be a last ditch effort to prove useful, or he could also be doing this to try and get me hit tomorrow in the day lynch if Seviro comes up green and is killed tonight. If we killed seviro, and he flipped green, we would have two suspects, Nova and Me. Nova would obviously go for me. Again, I think we need 6 votes, if not 7, depending on which scinario we have (and who the third mafia is). ##Vote: Nova_Terra No, no, no, no nonono im not falling for this, you're trying to make mementoss not suspect you if seviro is green and of course if sev was green its me and you and of course i would try to get you killed. but i would already if not seviro... and why did he have to self vote | ||
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This is ridiculous. He should have done something other than self vote...his best case would have been to post vs michaelthe and vote him. I am completely in agreement with seviro's so called "will". Michaelthe first thing, and then its quite probable that BlueyD is mafia. He made an early vote on seviro, and then sat back and didnt do very much, except for late into the voting period where he notes that he is unsure how good seviro's self vote was for the town, and that he was skeptical of michaelthe (which was a common thought at the time. he isnt getting very involved with important decisions yet, and therefore after michael he is my first suspicion. | ||
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The last mafia which this analysis will not go over is Michaelthe, who should be lynched asap as hes like 95% mafia, at least in my book. So, to make a brief addition to my previous analysis of BlueyD here goes. On March 25 2012 07:54 BlueyD wrote: Really, I've got an authoritative and these posts prove it? That's new to me. I would think someone trying to make a case that I've led anything here would pick the posts where I try to make people vote for a sc2system lynch based on reasoning that you may agree with or not. Not these 3 posts... All right, let me BlueyD-to-English translate these 3 for you... 1. Hi! I've never played mafia but I understand the game! Also we need a first post to get people talking! 2. Uh, guys, we've been talking about lynching lurkers day 1, but what if it turns out there's no lurkers to lynch? 3. Let's not act like we're starting anew and everyone's back to zero, guys, sc2system has still done crazy stuff we shouldn't forget. If saying "we" a bunch of times is all it takes to be a leader now... This is in response to my previous case against him where i said that his posts took an authoritative edge which it didnt deserve, and posted a couple examples, which i said. When i got this back, it was slightly scummy to me. why? well, he took a very defensive edge, and defends himself by saying that i didnt understand him (blueyd to english part) my post: On March 25 2012 07:42 Nova_Terra wrote: Mementoss, what do you mean the posts i quoted didnt show much of taking leadership? for instance, "I'd like to see everyone at least post to confirm activity. Whoever doesn't start posting is already suspicious at worst, and useless at best. We don't want any mafia hiding among the lurkers. I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens. " "This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker." " Of course we'll modify our opinions based on night 1 and day 2, but for the moment I still think my case against sc2system remains reasonably strong, and if there were a 2nd vote right now I'm sure he would get lynched on the spot." I may be misreading the second one wrong, but even so, the fact that he has been allowed to maintain an authoritative posture without pressure isnt good. The bolded parts are ones that i consider to be using diction that is promoting your way of thought and decision making. However, BlueyD isnt taking charge. He says things in this manner and then sits on it for a while until he decides to post another opinion or response. he is easily taking some credit for things already said. Compare this to Mementoss, who is taking a leaders point of view but is actually supplementing it with lots and lots of posts and analysis. BlueyD Is not being a leader! BlueyD hasnt really posted much on big issues and situations, on the seviro/me vote, he had an early vote on seviro which he then just left there without further conversation for almost the whole voting time, and then on his further post just adds more to the anti seviro part, and the last on after that throws more suspicion onto seviro, and just adds in michaelthe being odd by making that move, yet doesnt do anything about it. Overall, BlueyD gives off the air of a leader without the posts and analysis to support it, and just isnt helpful and transparent enough when he does make his points. I would say that his play is slightly similar to mementosses play last game, where mementoss posted trying to seem helpful and confidant but didnt post much content and didnt do much on major topics. i would say he is extremely likely scum. 75-80%. Now, as i believe i posted why i think gossemerr is inno, the only two people left who i feel could be the third and final mafia are either virtu or ninja4ever. so, to decide which one of them is probably mafia in my mind, i am going to compare their accomplishments as of yet in this game. Virtu early game: virtu starts off by posting a couple 1-2 liners of fluff and then goes into standard agreement play where people start agreeing about day1 lurker lynches etc, and then he starts noting playstyles from last game, mine in particular. I can see how this could be useful, but as of yet he hadnt really posted anything helpful. he does randomly afk for 22 hours, which isnt good, but he does post a nice large analysis post on RoF/ System/ kinda ninja. does he use other peoples points? yes. does he effectively illustrate reasons why they are suspicious anyway? yes. still rather null on him. he switches around a few votes trying to get system lynched, but shifts back immediately to ensure majority stays. he seems like he is trying to be helpful. he provokes some discussion on gossemerr before having to stop due to a serious RL issue (and i really hope everything is okay). overall? He tries to be helpful, makes an analysis made from points that had been stated already, but provokes discussion. Virtu: 40% chance of being mafia Ninja4ever. : Parties, gets drunk, misses a little bit of early game as result. not the best way to start off. then he posts some wifom vs lurkers and then a "case" on RoF where he pretty much says that we might want to think about a no-lynch day 1. what? we really dont get information from a no lynch. also, what a weird case. then blames it on everything had been said already? well then what is the point of a big post like this to agree and vote? then he posts like 7 times in 30 minutes to seem really active. most of which he shares his counter to artanis' logic and posts a couple 1 liners etc. to be fair, he hadnt done terribly early and posted his thoughts every so often. his next post posts thoughts on artanis' claim by saying hes pretty much 100% town. He is the first person to join onto mementoss' lynch nova train, in which he kisses up to memen to gain credit by saying that the case is great and all and that his case is perfect even if hes scummy. then he kinda soft defends michaelthe in the same post, saying that tyhe tell on michael was not very telling at all, etc. then he proceeds to go afk yet again, this time for an entire day. not cool,even if he had a reason. lastly he changes his vote to seviro with explanation. Ninja4ever.: 60% scum. One thing that is totally WIFOM that i just want to throw out is that Ninja really seemed like he wanted to vote me down for sure in the beginning of day 2. I came to the possibility that 1. mafia are splitting up votes which just makes sense and 2. he wanted to help the nova bandwagon along. why? quite possibly to get rid of the BlueyD case remnants and any suspicion on him. so, i think we should go for these three in order of suspiciousness, as we cannot lynch a townie.depending on defenses of course, the percentages might change. michaelthe is a totally safe day 3 lynch for sure. | ||
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Why? because i had a little theory that might help if we have any blue role left. which is still a low chance. BUT. I was thinking what if mafia HAD a power role. if they did, its quite probable that we had at least 2 blues, as there was no power role for mafia last game and there was 1 blue. we already have one this game, and he is almost confirmed town. I started to think about who the mafia would kill, and i rested on mementoss or artanis, being the most pro town. BUT. if the mafia thought there could be a medic, those would be the two LEAST wanted targets as they are most likely to be healed. and the only reason that mafia would suspect a medic is because they may have a power role. And who died? gossemerr. Therefore, if there is any blue left, pretty much meaning a DT, please note there could be a godfather or a framer. As i am onboard with the michaelthe lynch, i will start off and end this day right. ##Vote: michaelthe | ||
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Notice how 2/3 of the common mafia suspicions (meaning michaelthe and ninja) havent voted yet. scummy. Artanis, why would you advocate my lynch in particular? instead of Ninja/bluey for example? Virtu, im so sorry, i hope your sister is okay <3 if you can though, please come and vote soon so we can see where you stand. i understand if this isnt possible however. | ||
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BUT. we got one. two left to go, and we're good. We can collect our thoughts today, and go right into day 4 (i think it is) with a plan. So, it might be a good idea to at least post your thoughts if you think you have a chance of dying tonight. for me, i am still running BlueyD and Ninja. i am less sure about ninja, and it sucks that he might be replaced. Mementoss seems even more inno to me now, as michael's desperation target was him. I doubt that he would have tried to bus a fellow mafia before he died, but thats WIFOM. | ||
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Jeez, the thread really died after yesterday. seems strange not seeing pages of new posts to analyse. It really bugs me that both Ninja and Virtu havent been replaced yet. at is point its going to be rediculous if they are replaced and the replacement starts posting a crapton. which is why i think its so important to determine the best lynch of them now. | ||
Nova_Terra
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2. The part about BlueyD? Looks to me like mafia bussing, actually. just a "bit scummy." Trying to gain towncred after he flips maybe? 3. After last game, I am naturally inclined to hate replacements. Therefore, i still think that ninja/you is the best lynch after blueyD. Even if you do a lot to try to redeem yourself. Ninjas play was scummy, and to have a replacement come in and everything is ok about them then is ridiculous. Like cosine/velinath from last game. was terrible. My top two candidates are still BlueyD and ninja/Janaan. Sorry that Artanis is gone, but kinda figured either him or mementoss would die anyway. | ||
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I posted my thoughts on virtu earlier, and they still stand. lemme grab them in a sec. This still looks even more like a last ditch attempt to throw suspicion off of a scumbuddy. Ok here is my thing on Virtu "Virtu early game: virtu starts off by posting a couple 1-2 liners of fluff and then goes into standard agreement play where people start agreeing about day1 lurker lynches etc, and then he starts noting playstyles from last game, mine in particular. I can see how this could be useful, but as of yet he hadnt really posted anything helpful. he does randomly afk for 22 hours, which isnt good, but he does post a nice large analysis post on RoF/ System/ kinda ninja. does he use other peoples points? yes. does he effectively illustrate reasons why they are suspicious anyway? yes. still rather null on him. he switches around a few votes trying to get system lynched, but shifts back immediately to ensure majority stays. he seems like he is trying to be helpful. he provokes some discussion on gossemerr before having to stop due to a serious RL issue (and i really hope everything is okay). overall? He tries to be helpful, makes an analysis made from points that had been stated already, but provokes discussion." | ||
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##Vote: BlueyD i will be here for a little while before bed, if anyone needs me | ||
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Please return D: Goin to bed and i hope we're alive in the morning | ||
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Haha seviro, i think that if virtu came he woulda voted BlueyD. why? because both Artanis and Mementoss were gunning for him, and virtu had been going along with their thoughts previously. And, had they lynched me, i still think janaan would have survived due to how he went heavy on me. Activity near the end was kinda depressing. i kept checking back and saw that i had the most recent post from like 12 hours before. Actually, in the beginning of the game, i was actually REALLY busy, no lies about that, and i was so scared early because i never had time to actually play my meta from last game >.> I'm surprised after my defense where i pretty much claimed insanity (bwahaha) I didnt get lynched xD I wanna know Mementoss' opinion on this, i almost feel bad for him hehe | ||
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