EPTIf so, /in.
Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia IX
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
If so, /in. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
On March 21 2012 02:17 GMarshal wrote: You were the bodyguard in insane mafia! And yes, you have around 3 games played, but its been so long that I'll let you play Nah, I was the person that made Insane Mafia  . But thanks, yay! | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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On March 21 2012 08:04 GMarshal wrote: As soon as I have full signups I'll start the game. If it fills up after tomorrow it probably won't start before Monday, as I'll be at MLG. Ooh, have fun there!  | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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This is my third or fourth game of TL Mafia, I've organized Insane Mafia before which was an absolutely insane game and a ton of fun. I'm also pro lynching someone on day 1 as lynches are the only reliable way to kill mafia. We don't know if there's a vigilante in the game, but I don't think we can count on it. We should also treat any roleclaims with suspicion. Don't blindly follow anyone that claims, or anyone that makes long posts. Think for yourself and don't jump on bandwagons. From what I've seen in other games this is generally what kills towns. Mafia is by definition more organized so they're better at bandwagoning, though a smart mafia will never have everyone voting on one person. However, if there's any risk of a mafia getting lynched they'll normally switch their votes off so anyone that switches votes at the last minute should be viewed with suspicion. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum. Why would you not post your thoughts now instead of one hour before the deadline? We could actually discuss them if you post it now, there's no reason not to. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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On March 22 2012 14:55 Seviro wrote: I just noticed it had started and now I'm going to bed so I can't speak much now. I'll come back tomorrow to participate more. It's my second game myself (SNMMVIII, perfect win for mafia and I was among the last survivor, yay!) Introductory post. Pretty much no content other than saying he'll post again later. On March 23 2012 03:50 Seviro wrote: + Show Spoiler + On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote: People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice: Seviro (one useless post, but he's there) Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching) Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later) No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker. On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was q My post wasn't useless, I had to post something before going to bed and I can't post while i'm asleep sorry .As for the lurker lynch we should really put pressure on this, as Mementoss and Nova said, last game all three scums were very active and it was easy for them to control the flow of the game. It is useless to have the number advantage if half of the town only post once in a while just to make sure they are not modkilled. If you look at last day of last game (SNMMVIII) we were 5 town/3 scums and in one day we lynched a townie and 2 others got modkilled, and one of the lurkers was a Blue. This overall inactivity was a good part of why we lose the game since every lurker that we targetted flipped town. That said we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast because last game's situation will happen again and we will die horribly. Wants to pressure for lurker lynch when this is pretty much established in town, the whole paragraph goes on about how lurking is bad which has pretty much been established already. Somewhat defends lurkers in the same post which is odd. On March 23 2012 06:07 Seviro wrote: Pretty much what froggy said, last game we didn't really pressure them as much, yes we were talking a lot about lynching them but as soon as they posted like 1 or 2 post we were ok and were going on another subject. If we are talking about something, we need to have the opinion of everyone. I'll take Eleanthas of last game as an example, everytime he posted something he was completely ignoring the discussion that was going on, that should not happen. And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be. Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people. On March 23 2012 06:31 Seviro wrote: I'm okay with 6 but I'd like 8 more. 6 feel kind of short. Nothing of real worth here. On March 23 2012 07:58 Seviro wrote: there's no haste to vote yet, it's just that you said you would wait about and hour before the deadline before your vote, which is really late. It will be best for everyone if we say something like 8 to 6 hour before the deadline we should post what is our vote at that moment. At this point we can discuss and see what would be the best for the town. If at the time of the "soft" deadline you have no one that you think is more suspicious than the other you can always vote for no-lynch and change your vote later. These are exactly the type of contributions that scum is fine with doing, as they don't really 'help' the town in any way. The Rise of Fenix train is going nicely, which if he's just a bad townie is fine for mafia. On March 23 2012 08:05 Seviro wrote: It depends, on day 1 it is bad since we have no informations whatsoever if we don'T lynch someone, but later in the game a no lynch can be better than a mislynch. It does seems scummy but at time it can be good (rarely tho). But my point was not to no lynch, it was that you can vote no-lynch like 6-8 hour before the deadline if you don't know who to vote for and then with the discussion that follow you can make up your mind. Are you suddenly suggesting to no lynch? We've pretty much all agreed that not lynching day 1 is bad because of lack of information. People should vote on suspicion regardless. On March 23 2012 08:10 Seviro wrote: EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate. But now I think everyone should post what are their thought about that, if they agree etc. If we want to be able to win this, we need to work together and to not let 1 or 2 people take the control of the town. Continuing on with something that really isn't that crucial and if people agree to 8 hours instead of 6 there's nothing groundbreaking that will be decided. Based on all these posts that pretty much say nothing at all and seem to want to blend in most of all which seems like scum behaviour to me, though it's just a suspicion, I'm voting for Seviro for now. At worst it'll spark some more discussion. ##Vote Seviro | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
##Vote: Seviro | ||
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On March 24 2012 01:43 Mementoss wrote: @Nova_Terra, I know you were just stating your opinion on the case, but I don't necessarily think that is a good thing to do right away. It allows the accused to just slide by without defending their own asses, if a couple people just stick up for them. It's more interesting/can give a lot of information to see the player defend themselves/how they do it. If you come in first they can just re-write what you said in a different way. Even if the case doesn't seem the strongest in your thoughts, if it gets discredited by people other than the accused, the accused loses all pressure, and pressure = information/scum slips. Here is the most interesting part of the case in my opinion: Note the bolded/underlined, its both because its a very big mistake. A very big scum slip. Why is it such a huge deal? Because we have no clue if Nova_Terra is town. AT ALL. Here are the possibilities: 1) He is scum, he knows peoples roles, therefore he knows Nova_Terra is town. Slipped it by mistake. 2) He is scum, Nova_Terra is scum, he is quick to give the idea to the rest that Nova is confirmed town, when there is no proof behind it. Just saying it because Nova is active. 3) He is town, bad town play, making assumptions that lead to town not exploring all the possibilities, getting tunnelled away from someone (See me as mafia SNMM VIII) Dat scum slip Oops, yeah that looks bad. That was a bad town play. What I meant was someone making a play that is obviously town favored. I worded it poorly. I believe it's a slip that both townies and scum can make with little effort though. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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On March 24 2012 02:20 Nova_Terra wrote: Artanis, can you tell me your thoughts on Rise of Fenix? if it came down between him and a lurker, who would you rather lynch and why? Rise of Fenix to me seems like someone who just is very new to Mafia and isn't sure where to go. He tries to explore options but does so in an extremely clumsy manner. His one hour before the lynch voting thing smells scummy but I have this feeling he's just a confused townie whom is very easy to be made to look bad. I don't think Mafia will be making these kinds of gaping misplays so I'm looking for something more subtle, like I did in my analysis. On March 24 2012 02:33 Ninja4ever. wrote: 2°) Artosis on Seviro Artosis? :/ I don’t find your analysis based on strong enough evidences to warrant a lynch, your main argument being he posted too much redondancy and too little content, am I right ? Too me this is kinda natural when you have so few information, and it looks like every thing has been pretty much said. If you have little information and everything has already been said, you could agree with someone in a single line instead of making a giant post that basically says "I agree". Mafia gains by having the thread cluttered up with lots of useless information as it throws town off. I think that's a lot more telling than "scum slips" which are usually just typos. You could be trying to gain credit as a mafia and could also be a mafia that doesn’t want to look like he’s jumping on the Fenix wagon. By posting this analys you’d be killing two birds with one stone. As I said though, this is only really slight suspicion (around 55-45 mafia-townie, in my eyes) and even I is more suspicous at the moment, given my inactivity on the past couple days. WIFOM argument, I could be a townie just trying to get some analysis done to move the town forward too by posting some actual discussion. If posting analysis on a player now makes you suspicious just because you're posting analysis rather than it's contents, I don't think this town is going to go forward much, and that you find that suspicious is something I find suspicious. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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On March 24 2012 03:10 Seviro wrote: I already answered what I meant by that, pressuring and lynching are two different thing. Pressuring is forcing them to post by asking them directly their opinion on a subject so that we can more precisely find who is scum and who is not. A scum under pressure is most likely to post than a town in my opinion. If you already indicate all you want to do is pressure and you want to "pressure" lurkers yet are unwilling to go through with the lynching, then there is no real pressure to speak of. They can be silent and you'd still refuse to lynch them is what I'm getting out of this. Ok, so I can't agree with anyone that's what you're saying? I mean I wasn'T online after Nova question and Froggy kind of answered him in my place and I just pointed out that it was indeed what I meant. You're welcome to agree with people, but you didn't expand on anything while filling up a post that really said nothing but "I agree", in effect cluttering up the thread. I must say that I skipped over froggy's post though when searching for your posts. He did put it nicely. On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote: What I have been saying (and I think what Seviro is saying), is to be able to analyse behaviour you need to get actions and reactions from people. The analysis then has to be correct in of itself. The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong. Ok, so now I'm suspicious because i'm not badwagonning? I don'T really see your point here. What? In this post, you WERE bandwagoning. The train to lynch Rise of Fenix was going nicely, and if you're scum and he's not then it's beneficial to ride the train to his destruction. Way to miss the point, I won't bother explaining again since what you quoted was clear and you just seem to want to make me look scummy by making me say what I didn'T say. Chainsaw arguments are great. You're suggesting that a no lynch can be fine past day 1 and of course a mislynch will be worse then a no lynch. Problem is you don't know if it'll be a mislynch beforehand, and every day you don't lynch someone is a day that mafia can kill someone. The only time a no lynch is really a good idea is during mylo. It is not that crucial but if we can come up with something like this we will be a lot more organized and will have time to discuss all the votes before the actual deadline. Once again I explained it very well. Whether people vote 6 or 8 hours before the deadline really isn't that important. It's nothing to condemn anyone over but I don't consider it a valuable post by any means, 6 hours would've done the same job. Now that you put yourself on the stage, let's take a look at you. Gladly. Introductory post, little content else than the obvious and some WIFOM toward the end I explained my background which was asked of me and gave some clues regarding what the mafia might and might not do. You could consider it WIFOM, but I do think it's very likely that the mafia isn't stupid enough to vote on one person. Just trying to make sure everyone has their thinking caps on. + Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 05:39 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Why would you not post your thoughts now instead of one hour before the deadline? We could actually discuss them if you post it now, there's no reason not to. On of the first to tell what everyone else will say after. (People can have the same opinion, it'S not necessary badwagonning) I was one of the first to say this and I think it was a neccesary thing to say. It is a scummy action and we need that information as soon as possible. It's in no spam or detrimental to town. I agree that my posts are kind of long but just because you are missing every point that I make it doesn't mean that I have no content. All points you've made have been repeats of what other people have said, other than wanting to have 8 instead of 6 hours. You're not making any points, you're repeating those of others. This defense is not valid as it is only WIFOM. (It's a newbie game after all) A defense is as valid as likely as you believe it to be. Mafia's advantage is in organisation, not using that organisation would just be silly. There's a line between WIFOM and common sense, and I think this goes into the common sense department. Now I hate to do that, but I need to vote on you for now. In your case on me you were purposely (or not) missing all my point to make me look scummy and that for me is a lot more scummy. so for now ##Vote: Artanis[Xp] Eh, okay, but I think your reasoning is weak for it and I don't think you've made any real points of your own whereas I have. | ||
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On March 24 2012 05:08 michaelthe wrote: I was 100% ready to come and vote for sc2system. He essentially had zero content in a few filler posts. Then he voted on a bandwagon without activity. BUT the slip from Artanis[Xp] is too severe. Mementoss pointed it out, but it is worth repeating: 1. ONLY scum know who the townies are. This is a simply point, they know who is mafia, therefore they know who isnt mafia. Even if a DT checks someone, the person could have been framed, or the miller, or the GF or whatever. The ONLY way to know someone is town is TO BE mafia. 2. To call this a newbie mistake I think is incorrect. Freudian slip is more likely. There is a natural hesitation in everyone's mind as they play this game. To post with certainty that someone is a Town, even in 3 words, is a massive slip. 3. His only defense is "oops, my bad, scum slips dont happen since I would vet every post". Doesn't convince me. If this were true, 90% of scum slips wouldn't happen! This is too severe to overlook! sc2system is a good lynch, I still don't think Fenix is a great lynch, but Artanis is the clear day1 lynch in my mind! ##Vote: Artanis[Xp] I already added that what I meant with town was the entirety of everyone playing, that includes citizens and mafia. I misspoke which was a slip, and is easily done by both mafia and town. Lynching someone on a slip rather than solid analysis seems silly to me, though that's easy to say being on the chopping block and all. | ||
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RoF seems to be willing to try stuff, sc2system hasn't provided us with anything as far as I can see. However, due to no one coming to his defense I don't think we'd gain much information out of a lynch of sc2system either. There's been some soft defenses on Rise of Fenix which could give us more leads if he's red, therefore, ##Unvote: Seviro ##Vote: Rise of Fenix | ||
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On March 24 2012 05:44 Seviro wrote: Here is the said post Where in the world do you see in this post that I am following the Rise Of Fenix train? Hell i'm like the only one that is trying to defend him. Didn't respond to this yet, but I believe I misread it the first time. You're right that you didn't join the train; you didn't pick a side. Apologies for faulty analysis on this part. | ||
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On March 25 2012 05:26 BlueyD wrote: Rise's behavior is less suspicious since the excuse that he's not very bright at all works pretty well for everything he's done. sc2system's behavior, meanwhile, just looked chaotic for no reason. Do I have to even mention he voted for someone saying "ok if you say so" as the only explanation? This I find weak. The same excuse used for Rise can be used for sc2system with little effort. He doesn't seem to be thinking about his posts much either so if you're going to use that excuse for Rise, it'd apply to sc2system as well. The overarching 'taking leadership without many contributions' theme didn't sit well with me either when I was rereading the thread here. | ||
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On March 25 2012 06:43 Seviro wrote: This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play. If there's no actual risk of them getting lynched there's no pressure. He was probably just planning to post anyway. If you indicate beforehand that you don't actually want to lynch lurkers then almost all of the pressure to add in a meaningful way dissipates very quickly. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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On March 25 2012 06:46 Mementoss wrote: Why you want virtu to post while not mentioning people lurking harder than him? He at least had one good post, while sc2system and ninja4ever have none. Make them post too. My thoughts on the Nova_Terra case vs BlueyD felt very weak and forced. I read the points and it felt like he was trying to put some scummy behaviour into posts that weren't scummy to begin with. Since when is taking leadership a scum trait, it's a very risky thing to do as scum unless you are good at it as it gives you more connections to more players and allows most posts for people to analyse. Also a couple of the posts were taken out of context of what was happening in the thread at the time, eg, I tried to force BlueyD for an initial vote, before he left. Cause the town needed votes, and vote were not happening. Also I would kinda like prelim votes to start as early as second 24 hours of the day. As at least it provokes discussion and allows plenty of time for defense/ change majority. As we all live in different time zones. Im going out tonight so I probably will not post, until tommorrow. sc2system has posted plenty of bad posts, I'm fairly certain he won't improve on that any time soon. He's not going to be much use to the town imo. Ninja4ever mentioned he was going to be AFK today so I'll put pressure on him tomorrow. How come you didn't mention Gossemerr? Taking leadership without solid reasoning is a scummy thing to do. You're attempting to get people to follow what you say, and you can convince people by taking a position of authority, even if not earned. Posts can be taken out of context due to the filter option which is what people will usually use to analyze one person's posts, so an advice to anyone analyzing players; make sure to read the thread alongside it so you remember what was on the minds of town at the time. I'm good with the prelim votes starting as early as possible, as long as people will be present later too to change them should things develop. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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On March 25 2012 07:02 Seviro wrote: + Show Spoiler + On March 25 2012 06:48 Artanis[Xp] wrote: If there's no actual risk of them getting lynched there's no pressure. He was probably just planning to post anyway. If you indicate beforehand that you don't actually want to lynch lurkers then almost all of the pressure to add in a meaningful way dissipates very quickly. + Show Spoiler + On March 25 2012 06:50 BlueyD wrote: You said that we should "we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast". That's a direct quote. Well, the fastest we can lynch a lurker was the day 1 lynch, so that seemed to imply you were against lynching on day 1. Once that opinion of yours is in the open, the pressure value of your vote goes down a lot, so I don't get why you would say that. Had he no post, I would have left my vote on him, the thing is he did and his post was satisfying in my eyes so I switched to someone else that was getting pressured hard but was not defending or anything. Also, I think that these kind of early vote are a good thing so that later in the game we can see a pattern if someone seems to be posting only when he is getting pressured/voted. So in fact you would be willing to lynch a lurker. Why didn't you just say that from the start? | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Had a few other suspects I wanted to go for but considered every one of them too suspicious, and Day 2 would probably be too focused on sc2system if he didn't die this night. Didn't have the balls to go for people just based on a mild suspicion, but I felt I had to prove my innocence to prevent a mislynch this day given my dumb slip on day1. Got my eye on a few people which I'll elaborate on in the morning. Revealing since I'm now effectively a townie and this way I can give some guidance. | ||
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On March 25 2012 14:08 BlueyD wrote: On Artanis's vigi claim: I'll see whether anyone counterclaims then decide whether to believe you or not. If you look at the roles, you'll see it's impossible that both hits were Mafia, meaning there has to be a Vigilante in play. For Mafia to claim a vigilante hit would be extremely risky given the original vig is now just a townie and can counterclaim, leading the town to trade 1 for 1 at worst. Mafia will never do this, so I'm confirmed town unless you stretch your logic reaaaalllllly thinly. The flip side to this is that I'm pretty much guaranteed to die Night 2, but at least you can be sure that I've got the town's best interests in mind for this day. | ||
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When looking for Mafia, you don't look for obvious 'scumtells'. Mafia isn't just going to have a little sign that says "hey! I'm mafia, please lynch me!", but you look for what they contribute to town. As Mafia you want to say as little as possible with as many words as possible, and Seviro has been the person I've seen do this the most. Nova_Terra spams a lot as well, but he gives his opinion on everything, and he didn't instantly try to throw me under the bus when my situation looked bad, and kept thinking for himself. One thing that does speak for Seviro is that he didn't instantly throw RoF under the bus, but given all the other suspects at the time (other than Ninja4ever but he was never in any real harm) were town, that doesn't need to mean much. He also used a chainsaw argument against me after I accused him, voting me for little reason seemingly only because I voted on him and some minor suspicions. Regardless of alignment, that's bad. Michaelthe played a very strange game so far, basically making lists and giving general advice as well as asking for it, plus making the lurkers post up. All townie things, but also things that were already being done by other people. An easy way to get townie cred where it could be misplaced. Posted some analysis on Fenix explaining why he thought the lynch was bad, but went along with lynching RoF anyway. Could it be that he knew he was innocent from the start? Perhaps. Then comes my 'scum slip' which he suddenly jumps on. This makes no sense given his previous game style which was very distant and analytical. It's a 180 degree turn in how he plays which is very rare. It could be that he thought my 'scum slip' was so significant that it warranted this change of style, but I find it very suspicious at the least. Gossemerr opened in a joking way, then creates the RoF lynch train based on RoF's post making not much sense. This play I think is fine if he was town too though. Jumps from RoF to sc2system a bit too easily too after RoF was confirmed town. It also makes sense that one Mafia would want to start the bandwagons while the other two 'reluctantly' post to lynch him in the end so that the mafia aren't connected as much. This however is more of a general mafia argument then specifically for Gossemerr. Accuses sc2system again for playing dumb when it's become pretty apparent that he's just not a very good townie. Uses chainsaw argument when I accuse him which is a super scummy thing to do (if you don't know, a chainsaw argument is accusing the accuser rather than defending yourself). This is something Seviro used earlier too. It's true that he started the bandwagon on RoF. What I also find weird is that he first calls for sc2system to get killed, then doesn't want the vigilante to kill sc2system after all. Given he flipped town that does make Gossemerr less suspicious, but he said it so late that it was unlikely that any vigilante would still change their target so I'm not sure it matters too much. Reading over this again though I'd say Gossemerr is the weakest case of the three. To all of you out there, please analyze these three people well. To Seviro, michaelthe and Gossemerr; refute these points and analyze the others to make your case that you are indeed townie. The best way to defend yourself is to contribute. Given that I'm going to be the only one in this game you can trust, you'll know I'm not trying to redirect you onto players that aren't scum. Let's see if we can turn this around. I've got a lot of work I need to do today though so I can't guarantee I can react to any posts quickly. | ||
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On March 25 2012 23:23 Mementoss wrote: 3. We gain information from the vig claim, that Artanis is in fact a town player if the claim is correct. Im not saying we can confirm off the claim, but its a good tidbit. There is absolutely no possibility that I'm not Vigilante, since it's a 1 for 1 trade for Mafia at best. If there's anyone out there that would like to claim responsibility for the vig hit, please do so. It'd make absolutely no sense for Mafia to make a 1 for 1 trade. | ||
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On March 25 2012 23:53 Mementoss wrote: I think you are vigilante, but Im just saying because you claimed it doesn't mean its true. Looking at the way it happened it seems though you are vigilante. Mafia could claim vig, but someone for sure would counter claim, and it wouldn't really make sense to bring attention to themselves with the fake claim. You posted you were vig without fear immediately even though sc2system flipped town. I am 95% sure you are vig, but its not 100% till you flip. Nothing is ever 100% certain, of course. However if you look at it logically it'd be an extremely bad play for Mafia as the real vigilante can just speak up and force a 1 for 1 trade. Unless that happens, you're pretty much going to have to trust me as it's the closest thing you're going to have to a confirmed town. | ||
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On March 26 2012 21:38 Mementoss wrote: I still think case-wise, the Nova_Terra case seems stronger to me, but Seviro is suspicious based on the context of his actions/posts, more than the actual post content. This is my main reason that I'd rather go for Seviro than Nova_Terra as well. Something just doesn't sit right with me for the context of Seviro's posts, and it's exactly that pattern that I've often seen mafia players take in past games. They generally don't make large slipups, just try to not contribute to town while still typing a lot. When I pointed this out, he said I missed the point of his posts yet he never bothered to specify which 'point' that actually is. For that reason; ##Vote: Seviro | ||
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On March 27 2012 04:04 Mementoss wrote: I actually really like BlueyD's point on Seviro, that he is kinda taking credit for something he didn't do. This alone is a better part of the case than most of the other analysis. The Seviro vote train moved a lot faster than the Nova one did though, which leaves me to wonder. All 3 mafia probably aren't on the same vote. They would split up to have less connections between them at least for now. Except there is some unique cases, if both Nova and Seviro are scum obviously they are going to vote for the opposite. Also it is possible that Virtu is scum and since hes not voting we can't really look into it. Mafia most likely has 3/8 active voters right now (if virtu is town) the fact that the Seviro vote is going a bit too smooth worries me. I share your worries, but Mafia might be willing to let Seviro go at this point to look more like town. They already have an advantage and it could be worth saccing one mafia to ensure victory for the rest. Nova's case also came out of thin air as soon as I posted my three cases, which leads me to believe that mafia might've needed a fourth case to try and stretch out town as much as possible, especially after Grosmerr's case wasn't very convincing. Despite Nova's bad defense I still don't feel like he's mafia, if anything it feels more like bad townie play since it's such an unlikely mafia defense. This is all WIFOM though, but so is the argument of the Seviro train going too fast. | ||
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On March 27 2012 04:20 Mementoss wrote: Yes, Im so on the fence right now its unbelievable. It would be amazing if you were both scum buddies but that seems to be me just hoping hard. And yes I did note that Seviro did the exact same scummy thing as you. It has to be so amazing to be host right now if only one of these two is mafia. | ||
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On March 27 2012 04:57 Nova_Terra wrote: Just want to make a brief analysis on Michaelthe. in early game, he played aggressively to start out which i liked. however, since then, the quality of play has gone down substantially. i just took a foray into his filter. I definitely think he goes a bit overboard on his ultimatum (which he didnt follow?) and the artanis slip thing. i can see the point of both, but he went a bit too off. He had some wishy-washyness to his vote patterns, which can be explained a bit by avoiding no lynch, but it became apparent to me that ALL 3 of the people he switched between were/are town (as i think artanis is certain at this point). he jumped happily on every little mistake that has arisen throughout the game (refered to in some guide as cherry picking town mistakes i think). After last game, i actually gave up on my "discrediting tell" philosophy, where if you call some analysis/case bad, it is often a scum move because cases which have a bad reaction to them are not thought of and taken as serious as one without any opinions on it so far. upon reading his filter, what i classified as aggressiveness in playstyle went right into discrediting and being just plain rude. He frequently has been calling points terrible and weak, even refusing to respond to a so called "weak case" made by seviro i believe. entirely wrong attitude. it also seems likes hes going heavy into gossemerr without much behind it. not so sure why. I think gossemerr is leaning town, and in general his play has been helpful. anyway, if seviro wasnt more suspicious at this point in time, i would be putting down michaelthe for this lynch (unless something else big came up). its likely that my vote tomorrow will be on michaelthe bar some other case developing. Please be a replacement for virtu if nothng else. A modkill would really kill us i should think. Wait what? He currently has zero votes and with 7 hours to go I highly doubt you could get enough votes on him still. This lynch is pretty much between you and seviro right now, we need to lynch a mafia. today. or we'll be wasting a day. The fact that you want to lynch Michaelthe instead is suspicious to me. You should know that with 7 hours to go the chance of someone going from 0 to 5 votes is fairly unlikely. | ||
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On March 27 2012 08:10 Mementoss wrote: Thank god for a non-mod kill on virtu. Seviro is the easy lynch right now, but is that what we want? If its easy it probably has two mafia supporting it. And if mafia is supporting it, we either caught nova and seviro as scum bed buddies and there bussing, or they are just playing that we are too inactive to get a vote switch. If we try really hard/have the activity we could lynch off Nova's or Michaels ass. Or perhaps that's just exactly what Mafia wants us to think because they realize it's the only chance to save Seviro at this point. Too much WIFOM, and you're questioning it to the point that I'm starting to question your legitimacy. | ||
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On March 27 2012 08:04 Mementoss wrote: omfg, michael that was the stupidest move ever if you are town. Seriously, there is no town logic behind it. I thought of what you said too, that last minute mafia could vote switch for the no lynch due to us not having virtu, but guess what. It would be fucking stupid because it would bring all eyes on them and we could connect the dotes and kill there whole team in a couple swipes. As of now switching your vote makes a no-lynch more likely so you completely contradicted yourself. I am so confused right now, GJ mafia your doing your job. Alright, michael is now officially looking scum for me. This really confuses me and makes me suspect you might be scum. Michael's post looks so much more like ignorance than deception; he clearly just didn't think it through properly, and it's a lot more likely now that he's just a confused townie rather than mafia. Given how you're clearly not a dumb player, a very rational explanation to this would be willful ignorance. Putting another suspect on the list is always a good thing for Mafia, so there's plenty of reason for it. I won't exclude the possibility that this was just a lapse of judgement though. It's just extremely clear to me that Michael is just a confused townie. | ||
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##unvote: Seviro ##vote: Michaelthe | ||
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##unvote: Michaelthe ##vote: Seviro | ||
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Pretty sure town: Gossemerr, virtu 50/50: BlueyD, Ninja4ever Leaning scum: Nova_Terra Almost sure scum: Michaelthe That's how I view it at this point. And now I'm going to need to catch some sleep. | ||
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Also, to town: Don't get too worried about WIFOM regarding mafia. They have no choice but to lynch michaelthe the next day because of the massive suspicion on him. Even if he gets a quick 7 votes that doesn't mean that he has to be town. I find Ninja4ever's case stronger than virtu's as well given virtu is still trying to put the effort in to help town, clearly still invested in the game despite family troubles and came to vote for the lynch. This alone makes him fairly green in my book as I don't think you'd view voting on the lynch is as important when scum. My only sidenote is that I'm still torn between BlueyD and Nova. Both have some good and some bad, but there's something about Bluey that does give me the feel that he's town though I can't quite put my finger on it. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On March 27 2012 10:50 Seviro wrote: OK, I don'T have much time before my lynch so I'll try to make it fast and clear. Maybe you'll give more credit to what say when you'll stop assuming i'm scum. I'll give you my present thought on the mafia team since it is the last time I can make any claim. First thing first, based on the recents post, i'm less and less sure that Nova is a scum. The main point against him is his meta shift from last game which don'T say much since it was his first game and in the everyone was thinking he was a scum because of his play style. I'll say there's 60% chance of him flipping scum. My main suspect at 95% sure in my opinion is, as you may know, Micaelthe. I said about all I had to say about him but i'll talk about his vote switch. He switched his vote now when it was clear for everyone that I was being lynched. I think that since my death can tell a lot about him (see Mementoss post about it), it was best for him to kill nova since his death doesn't tell anything about him. Also, he add that he'd want at least 6 vote so that scum don'T ninja switch and cancel the lynch which doesn'T make sense since there was 6 vote on me at the time. And for those who think that he wouldn't have made a case on me if he was scum, a lot of people were already suspicious about me so he just tried to get the train rolling (in which he succeeded). My second suspect which I am 80% sure is BlueyD. As Nova mentionned, after a good start of trying to get discussion roll, he kinda fell out of sight and didn't add anything useful. He did follow the bandwagon on me and nova, adding that I was taking credit for something that I didn'T did, which I refuted by adding the 3 post where I was actually doing what I was claiming. Post at which he answered by: + Show Spoiler + On March 27 2012 00:21 BlueyD wrote: Seviro, let me repost the 3 things you consider defenses of Rise, with bolded parts: Okay, so he plays poorly, looks suspicious, and feels like obvious scum to you. Great defense! It doesn't feel like you're defending him at all to me, since you bring up something I can bold in every single post. I'm not at 1/1 or at 1/4 now, I'm at 4/4. Truth is when someone looks this bad, we lynch him to know what he is. That's how the game is played. He was a decent lynch target from the start and the only defense you could have brought out was "someone else looks even worse", as I did. Never try to defend me, by the way. Post at which I didn't respond since I though it was obviously fake fact but some people seemed to agree with it so here is some clarification. See, when we bold what actually matters it takes another sense. But I don'T blame you, it was a trend in this game to take my word out of context and ignoring important part of my posts. Now for the third, I think he is among Virtu or Ninja4ever. I don'T have anything to back my claim but I feel like they are lurking too easily. By the way mafia, you did a great job of making me feel scummy, so great job in fact that the vote is unanimous so good job on that. With that said, don't take what I said here for the truth but please investigate enough to make yourself an opinion. with 3 scum and 4 townie left after the night, the bandwagon can easily go in a wrong way. I put my fate into your hand Town Fellow. Avenge my death and win this for me please. Cheers, Good luck Good game, I follow this closely and I hope my death won't be in vain. I don'T think I'll post again so peace out, love you all :D (except scum team obiously). Adding to that, I'd like to point out again I find Ninja4ever more suspicious than Virtu simply based on that Virtu came back to vote despite family issues, which I find to be more likely for town than for mafia. It's mildly WIFOM, but so is everything in this game. That doesn't mean Ninja4ever is neccesarily mafia, but it does make Virtu greener than him. At this point I'm fairly convinced that Michaelthe has to die. Regarding MichaelThe's recent post: Not impressed. His style of play from the start of the game to the middle of the game changed so much that I have to presume there's been some communication between him and the mafia team that has made him shape up his play. I'm pretty sure that he knows he's doomed, so the reason for his post can only be to cover up the mafia. This leads me to believe either Mementoss or Nova. I highly doubt both of them as that'd be too much of a risk, but I find one of them being Mafia fairly likely. I find Mementoss somewhat hard to read but he does have a green aura around him. The two big red exclamation marks though are the response to Michaelthe's post, which he answered to by indicating he made a lapse of judgement; 1. omfg, michael that was the stupidest move ever if you are town. Seriously, there is no town logic behind it. I thought of what you said too, that last minute mafia could vote switch for the no lynch due to us not having virtu, but guess what. It would be fucking stupid because it would bring all eyes on them and we could connect the dotes and kill there whole team in a couple swipes. As of now switching your vote makes a no-lynch more likely so you completely contradicted yourself. I am so confused right now, GJ mafia your doing your job. Alright, michael is now officially looking scum for me. Even though we do think michael is mafia, his post was such a clear bad play that I find it highly unlikely it was a mafia ploy. If anything, I think it might've been double mindgames now (a plan so silly they can't help but think I'm town) which would be fairly ingenous. 2. Gossmerr pointed out that Mementoss is making connections between players, whereas earlier in the game he said: On March 22 2012 23:38 Mementoss wrote: Another thing I learned from last game and I think Nova_Terra will agree with me is, making connections (or anti-connections) between players is absolutely useless until the town flips its first scum. Keep track of it for all means, just no need to post it until scum is flipped and it can be used with case analysis (can't stand alone as a case). Cause you can literally find these connections between most players, its just the nature of the game, and the town trying to work as a team. A clear contradiction. Mementoss, please explain. These posts are the chink in Mementoss' otherwise good posting record, but in general he's been a lot more helpful than Nova, so I'd suspect Nova more. The amount of effort Mementoss also puts into his posts still at this point in the game seem more like a desperate attempt to still get victory out of the claws of defeat rather than a play you really need to do as Mafia at this point. The chance of Town still coming back into this is fairly unlikely (though possible, keep your chins up guys!) which means Mafia would most likely go into minimal posting mode as to not screw a win up. BlueyD's case is shown excellently in Mementoss' post. Also suggesting that I might survive the night seems a bit silly, as I feel there's an almost zero chance on that. I also don't like the suggestion of lynching immediately tomorrow as it's MYLO tomorrow, but I'll expand on that a bit later in this post. He's also agreed with michael a lot and although that doesn't neccesarily say everything, it does raise some flags as Michael was still in the clear during all of this. Nova_Terra has been all over the place, earlier mostly posting short responses to everything, and later on started analyzing a bit more. This change in behaviour is suspicious at least, even though it was called for, any behavior change during a game of Mafia should be watched closely. The activity of all of Nova's posts also cluttered up the thread quite a bit and confusion is good for Mafia. I'll give him points for not immediately jumping on my case though, and he's the suspect I'm the least sure of. Given his many opinions, this case will become more clear as townies die at night as he had a lot of opinions and is therefore the best candidate to lynch last. Gossemerr seems fairly green, though somewhat inactive. He scrutinizes posts but uses good logic for it. He hasn't posted too much though which is a shame as especially now town will really need him to be active. I wouldn't blindly trust him just yet, not until some more analysis is done. What he has said however makes sense so I'm leaning town on him. Ninja4ever I have absolutely no read on. He simply hasn't put in the effort to really analyze cases. He did oppose Nova_Terra fairly early when Seviro was on the chopping block which leads me to believe that if Nova is mafia, Ninja is not, and the opposite. This because Nova was not even close to getting lynched and his case put him on the map. Since if we mislynch we lose anyway, the benefit we get out of this knowledge is that if Nova flips red, Ninja is probably not mafia, and the other way around. Plays fairly defensive and reactionary, but so did Seviro and I feel it's more a preferred style then a mafia tell. MYLO: Tomorrow will be MYLO. The usual standard during MYLO is to not lynch anyone so that less suspects are left. Given that there will be no confirmed townies left after my death, I'd advocate for a no lynch and get more information out, and analyze with the thought of MichaelThe flipping scum. The benefit of waiting a night is that one potential townie will die. The field being thinned out is a good thing in this case since it won't lose us a day. MYLO is the only situation in which it's a good idea to no lynch, and I advocate everyone to not lynch during the next day. So, who do we lynch Master Artanis? Well, let's start with MichaelThe. Follow it up with BlueyD. And end on Nova_Terra Those are my three biggest suspects right now. Nova's lynch is the most meta though, so having more dead players could provide additional information regarding whether it's the right choice. And with that, I must depart this town for the gates of Valhalla. | ||
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Let's get this shit started. ##Vote: Michaelthe | ||
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On March 28 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote: A) Artanis' claim is fake, and/or mafia had a night vig for 2kp night one somehow. It seemed weird how the kill flavour were both identical. -> Our whole game thus far has been based on this one claim, it's closed setup and we have no idea how many of what roles there are. It seems like a mistake in a closed game to make this assumption. However, it is too risky to go back on what we have already decided to be truth. Therefore, if A) is true we the town have already lost. There is no chance that my claim can be fake at this point unless we have a vigilante that still hasn't spoken up, which I would find extremely unlikely given that it'd be a 1 for 1 trade at worst the previous day. In a closed setup, all potential roles are given and there is no additional Mafia kill role listed. It's also said that the kill flavor wouldn't provide any clues. This is a semi-open setup, that is, exact role counts will not be known, but the possible roles will be known. All roles presented here are not necessarily in the game, but no roles not included here are present. Regarding virtu, sucks to hear man, best of luck to your sister. Regarding the night kill: The only thing that explains it is if my analysis is correct and they want to create doubt. If they killed me, this would have no influence on Mementoss' position, nor that of mine since it'd prove my analysis. By killing Gossemerr they're creating doubt on Mementoss, plus Gossemerr was a good townie that just didn't post too much. They could've feared that he'd expand on his analysis and lock down on the mafia players. With michaelthe, I'm pretty sure we have a mafia at this point. I don't think Mafia would be trying to pull tricks on us if he wasn't, because they know it's still neccesary. However, the only one that was really pushing against Mementoss was Gossemerr, which despite all WIFOM should be taken seriously. @Nova_Terra; I'm advocating your lynch depending on who dies. I'd expand on that but that could make mafia change their targets based on if you're mafia or not, so I'll let the town decide on that since I'm pretty sure I won't be alive for the final lynch, if we get that far. You may have accused BlueyD, but it was weak at best and there was no real risk of him getting lynched at that point. The overall posting record is more important. | ||
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@Ninja4ever. please vote for michaelthe. If he's mafia and you haven't voted they could all unvote him and vote for no lynch at 5am and we'd still lose. It's actually a risk in this case because if we don't lynch we lose immediately so it doesn't matter if the mafia are known then. | ||
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This leaves BlueyD, Nova_Terra and Ninja4ever with 2 mafia between them. Mementoss is practically green too at this point. BlueyD appears to be the best target at first. Ninja is a massive gamble where I really can't say much about. What speaks for him is that michaelthe did put him in a few lists early on which could've potentially added badly, though mafia can put other mafia in there too in case they get killed. Still, despite the WIFOM I'd find this a slight point in favor of Ninja4ever. Before the suspicion went to Michaelthe, he tried to start a bus on Nova_Terra as well which speaks in favor of Nova_Terra, more so than Ninja4ever's case. However, one interesting little bit; In all of Michaelthe's post, BlueyD's name is mentioned only once. BlueyD on the other hand did throw a FoS at Michael. This was however after Seviro's post where he already threw Michaelthe in front of the train and this looked to be unsalvagable. To me, this makes BlueyD the most suspicious of the three. So right now I'd go with BlueyD and Ninja4ever as the two remaining mafia. | ||
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@Town I'm probably going to die this night. With my last breath, I suggest you trust Mementoss. I feel he's our only chance at town victory at this point. Unless Mafia for some reason decides to kill him rather than me, please remember my last post. I suspect BlueyD and Ninja4ever (Janaan now) the most, with Nova_Terra behind him. I don't suspect Virtu for reasons posted above, and Mementoss has been a valuable aid in town. On March 28 2012 11:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote: And with that, I must depart this town for the gates of Valhalla. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pX1Swx9MJv8 | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + @Janaan welcome! @Everyone as you may have noticed I've said that Mementoss is basically as green as me. That was not true and it's an attempt in the case that if he is town as well, he may get hit instead which would clear him and still give us one confirmed townie; me. Looking back at his posts there's quite a few things that I find interesting. Exhibit A: Michaelthe scumtell omfg, michael that was the stupidest move ever if you are town. Seriously, there is no town logic behind it. I thought of what you said too, that last minute mafia could vote switch for the no lynch due to us not having virtu, but guess what. It would be fucking stupid because it would bring all eyes on them and we could connect the dotes and kill there whole team in a couple swipes. As of now switching your vote makes a no-lynch more likely so you completely contradicted yourself. I am so confused right now, GJ mafia your doing your job. Alright, michael is now officially looking scum for me. Michaelthe came up with a bad mafia plan which prompted Mementoss to instantly reply to it and claim that he's scum. The good part about this is that Michaelthe turned out to be mafia. The bad part; it's a terrible mafia play because you draw attention to yourself with it and it's a dumb plan which anyone with logic behind him can point out. It's too obvious, and Mementoss is smart enough to know that. Yet, he still decided to post about it. Exhibit B: Inconsistency On March 22 2012 23:38 Mementoss wrote: Another thing I learned from last game and I think Nova_Terra will agree with me is, making connections (or anti-connections) between players is absolutely useless until the town flips its first scum. Keep track of it for all means, just no need to post it until scum is flipped and it can be used with case analysis (can't stand alone as a case). Cause you can literally find these connections between most players, its just the nature of the game, and the town trying to work as a team. Four days later.. On March 26 2012 21:38 Mementoss wrote: If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips town, Michael would be highly suspicious and so would Nova Terra. If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips scum, Michael would be off my radar, and Nova would still remain suspicious. Making connections before anyone flips scum. Very inconsistent and makes no sense. His defense when Gossemerr pointed this out was this: How is the above a connection? I did not connect 2 players, I basically said what information we could get from the flip. As for the lynch, I actually think going for a Nova lynch in a lynch right or lose situation is a really risky move. And would rather go for these new suspicions from the flip/Seviro's confirmed town last dieing words. I'd consider it a very clear connection. Saying what information you can get from the flip basically equals a connection. Exhibit C: Back and forth pulling with michaelthe Michaelthe, knowing he will die, decides to accuse Mementoss. What's the best way to make someone look innocent if you're scum? Accuse them. Michaelthe went from a period of semi-inactivity to accusing Mementoss as much as he could, though not very effectively. Circumstancial evidence, but it does point towards Mementoss. Sacrificing Michaelthe would also reveal him to be a very reliable player, and given mafia only needs one mislynch to win at this point, a small price to pay to ensure at least one mislynch. Exhibit D: Gossemerr's death Before Day 3, there were 2 'town leaders', and one 'deputy' if I may, being Gossemerr. Mementoss and I mostly led the town and Gossemerr came up with some dirt on Mementoss, and showed that despite not having posted much he could start doing so now and turn town on Mementoss after all. Killing me would not sway town away from that. Killing Gossemerr and preventing further analysis would, and anything else could be blamed on WIFOM. Exhibit E: Voting record On the first day, he mentions he wants to kill a lurker unless someone makes a significant scum slip. Said scum slip befell on me, yet he did not push for my lynch but rather that of Rise Of Fenix, and later sc2system after his posts. Also, he first votes a lot for Nova_Terra then later decides to move targets to everyone but Nova_Terra. This leads me to believe that if Mementoss is indeed mafia, his buddy is Nova_Terra as he can quote past posts and note how he distanced himself from Nova. It must be noted however that Momentoss didn't instantly bus me when I made the so called Scum slip, which does improve his image as a townie. Exhibit F: Scum slip On March 27 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote: We want people to keep the discussion up or the town is doomed. Don't worry about dieing, worry about saying something that leads to a scum kill after your death. Honestly, I don't think anyone should be worried about dieing. There are only two possible mafia kills in my eyes. 1. Artanis 2. Mementoss Probably not me anymore because I am thought of as less green than before by a couple townies. Something Michaelthe pointed out. I don't consider it very significant as I made a 'scum slip' too but was townie, nevertheless it is worth nothing. The meta case by Gosse I didn't find particularly interesting either; looking like a super green townie is always in your best interest, whether mafia or town, so I found that a weak reason. With this post, I'm not calling for a lynch of Mementoss. I'm asking town to look at him critically and then make a unified decision. I would suggest following Virtu's lead, because I believe him to be the closest thing to a green that town has right now, and I'm pretty sure town would at least not be led by a mafia, in which case we've lost already. Mementoss has also said a lot of things that made sense and given the amount of posts he's made it's possible that these are simply some of the mistakes he's made. However, there's also a very real chance that he's mafia. Read over the thread again and draw your own conclusions. GG Mafia. | ||
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