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On March 24 2012 23:11 virtu wrote:
I suppose this outcome is about the same as lynching an inactive green, as he was pretty much useless as far as pro-town posting goes...my big worry is that tomorrows lynch will be on sc2system who kinda seems the same as RoF, he could very well be another genuine case of a quite inactive and weak posting townie. If this happens the town numbers will be dwindling rather quickly... Will have a good read through the D1 activity and come up with some thoughts later on today.
That is true, we can't commit to any votes based on day 1 opinions we need to make some new ideas based on day 2 activity as well. Sc2system was just so shitty during the end of the voting phase, he just seemed like he was taunting everyone.
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Of course we'll modify our opinions based on night 1 and day 2, but for the moment I still think my case against sc2system remains reasonably strong, and if there were a 2nd vote right now I'm sure he would get lynched on the spot.
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On March 24 2012 23:11 virtu wrote:
I suppose this outcome is about the same as lynching an inactive green, as he was pretty much useless as far as pro-town posting goes...my big worry is that tomorrows lynch will be on sc2system who kinda seems the same as RoF, he could very well be another genuine case of a quite inactive and weak posting townie. If this happens the town numbers will be dwindling rather quickly... Will have a good read through the D1 activity and come up with some thoughts later on today.
It was more or less expected that we'd get a bad townie on day 1. I thought it was pretty clear he was bad town rather than mafia, but just a really bad town who couldn't even vote in the right format last minute that would have saved him.
This doesn't make it a bad lynch, because it provides information. We need to go back and look at who voted for who and when. This will be useful, but only mildly, since his play was so bad that there was massive consensus.
The other points of analysis for day 2 will analyzing the activities of night 1, and of course, searching for scum slips.
On March 24 2012 21:26 froggynoddy wrote:
Just read the write up in full. I think DoYouHas is trying to tell us something...
I normally don't read all of the flavor text, because it is designed to be just that, flavor. But I did read it carefully this time, since the town is losing all the newbie games, it is within the realm of possibility that some hint was given. But after a careful read, I don't see anything.
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On March 20 2012 23:22 GMarshal wrote:
Clues:
There are NO clues.
On March 24 2012 21:26 froggynoddy wrote:
Just read the write up in full. I think DoYouHas is trying to tell us something...
There are no clues this game.
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Sad that Fenix was so bad.. moving on.
sc2system is the most scummy candidate in my opinion that we currently have. There are a few other cases out there on him so I won't rehash those. However, this response to when I asked:
On March 24 2012 05:30 Gossemerr wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2012 18:41 sc2system wrote:
I love playing games like this becuase I find it funny how you can counter every logic and you can confuse people.
The hell? I just noticed this, why the hell would you want to confuse people? ...Unless you are a scum? Anyway, not going to vote for Seviro or Artanis at this point. Need more information to make a better judgement. But, the case on Seviro is weak and Artanis seems scummy. @ Everyone. I have to leave in 30 minutes and then I will be gone for the day. So is it going to be sc2system or Fenix? sc2system feels like the safer bet to me. Scummy post that I point out above, and then hardcore lurker basically since.
does not make any sense to me.
On March 24 2012 05:58 sc2system wrote:
And I did write that I like to confuse people but that is only when they use invalid arguments that ruin the game. For example if we all vote on X becuase Y was killed by the mafia and Y accused X the previous day. This is an invalid argument so this is when I like to inverse the logic and I say: What if the mafia wanted us to think that and they get a double kill, or what if they knew that we knew that and they just did the first step. Confused? Good. And this only works with invalid arguments.
Hope that is all I wanted to say...
I still don't know why you would want to confuse us townies.. Pointing out the someone's argument is wrong is one thing, but blatantly trying to confuse people reading the thread is pretty scummy.
##FoS: sc2system
Moving on,
Nova, you have quite a bit of posts... but nothing of use. I'm not going to quote them all here (look through his filter). This is a STARK difference from the last game. Concerning a bit to me. Hopefully over the next coupe days you will provide some big pro-town discussions.
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Yeah I agree that his confusion thing is wierd and doesn't make any sense if you're town. That plus the fact taht he changed his vote for no apparent reason at the end of the day is really strange. I'd want to hear more from him to see if he can come up with some reasonable explanation.
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Yep, I am trying to get a case out tonight. Over the past couple days i have been very busy, many tests on friday and a friends party was today, so when i have been posting i have normally only been on for 5 minutes.
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BlueyD
Okay, so I would like to share my suspicions on our acquaintance, BlueyD.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 22 2012 13:43 BlueyD wrote:
Hey, I'm BlueyD and this is my first game of Mafia ever, but I've read a few here on TL and I think I have a good feel for how this works.
This said, it's been 3 hours since we've gotten our roles, and no one has spoken yet. I'd like to see everyone at least post to confirm activity. Whoever doesn't start posting is already suspicious at worst, and useless at best. We don't want any mafia hiding among the lurkers. I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens.
Good luck to all, and may the most able survive!
BlueyD makes the first post of the game, in which he appears to want to take a leadership position in the town. He dictates what behavior is suspicious, and what is useless, pretty much stating obvious things, which he can get some credit for as he is the first poster in the game. One thing that I note is “I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens.” This was 3 hours after the game started, and if he is mafia, it would have been plenty of time for his mafia to have gotten their roles and know that they will all post soon, and that they are not inactive. However, this post is not very suspicious.
Main thing to note: Point of this post seems to be, “Hey look, I am here and I am playing like a leader, and everyone is more suspicious than me because I am the first poster!
+ Show Spoiler +On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote:
People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice:
Seviro (one useless post, but he's there)
Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching)
Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later)
No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker.
Here he tries to seem more like the leader. Making a lurker list, but not really posting any content. “This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker” This is not content, this is “obvious”.
There is a decent sized gap between many of his posts. He is coming across in a leader way, but is being allowed to sit back and chill, a position that mafia would love.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 23 2012 11:44 BlueyD wrote:
Just a quick summary of Rise of Fenix's behavior up to now...
- Admits to not reading the rules and says some really confused stuff about voting as a result
- Accuses michaelthe due to his eagerness to lynch an inactive, when many have argued we should do this
- Tells michaelthe he would vote for him if there were an unlynch in the game
- Doesn't actually put in a vote for michaelthe once he knows he can unvote later, says he has no reads instead
- Uses really short posts frequently
I don't know if the guy is awful scum or awful townie. All I know is he's awful. If he's town, he'll be absolutely useless to us, but if he's mafia, he'll quickly give himself out on the 2nd day, at this pace. I'm putting my chips on bad townie for the moment.
To Rise Of Fenix: You better come up with some real information as to why you acted like you acted (see above points), or else I WILL put my vote in for your lynch.
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Ninja4Ever. and sc2system seem to be our 2 big time lurkers at the moment. They, together with Fenix, are part of my top 3 should lynch list.
Here, BlueyD throws serious suspicion to multiple people. Already beginning to plan for day 2? He goes hard on RoF, and notes that Ninja4ever. and Sc2system are lurking and should be lynch targets as well.
Note the part that says, “To Rise Of Fenix: You better come up with some real information as to why you acted like you acted (see above points), or else I WILL put my vote in for your lynch.”
+ Show Spoiler +On March 24 2012 06:58 BlueyD wrote:
Just came back from work, was reading a bit at work as well but I didn't keep notes. I was waiting on a reply by Fenix which I guess never came. I'll grab dinner then post my analysis in... I hope 1 hour or so.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 24 2012 07:11 BlueyD wrote:
Fine, fine, fine, I'll vote now.
##Vote: sc2system
Reasoning incoming after dinner.
Uhh, what? From telling RoF that he better explain or die to voting sc2system after RoF posts nothing? Wishy washy and contradicting. Now, BlueyD starts posting his suspicions on Sc2System, making another probable lynch target for either day 1 or day 2.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 24 2012 07:49 BlueyD wrote:We've really got no news on Rise of Fenix so my analysis from my last post about him hasn't changed. Earlier today, I was 50/50 on lynching Fenix or sc2system, since my 3rd top 3 pick (ninja4ever) started posting, but then sc2system started acting... Reaaaally scummy. I'll point to just one thing: Between his vote for Rise Of Fenix and his vote for No Lynch (due, according to him, to Rise now contributing), Rise Of Fenix has ONLY ONE POST. And it says: Show nested quote +On March 24 2012 05:36 Rise Of Fenix wrote:
give me another chance, please. I will make up my terrible play today tommorow. That's a contribution?! That's even more useless than the rest! I don't know why he chose to vote no lynch at that moment, but his reason makes NO SENSE. Maybe it had to do with him being under attack and trying to make us think he was just a little peaceful guy? ... And then he votes for Virtu out of nowhere. Pure bandwagon jumping, and not one that was going anywhere either way. Virtu hasn't been scummish at all, and while he had a few hours of inactivity, when he posts it at least makes sense. I don't know if we'd get more info out of a Rise of Fenix lynch, but it doesn't matter to me when I'm getting huuuuuge scumvibes from sc2master.
First thing, earlier today you were 50/50 on Fenix/System? Because that’s not what saying, “Or I WILL vote for your lynch” sounds like. At all.
Then, he goes on to criticize System for thinking that Rise of Fenix’s post that was pleading to live is a contribution. Saying you will vote for Fenix if he doesn’t contribute, and then voting someone for thinking that a post which in your eyes, ISNT A CONTRIBUTION, is one, doesn’t make sense at all. And then he goes on to say that he doesn’t care if we would get more info from a RoF lynch as he is getting “scumvibes” AKA gut feeling from sc2system. Why would you not care if we would get more information? Information is one thing that mafia have that we can take from them. That’s what we need to beat them. Gut feeling is better than information?
The worst part is that his gut feeling is because sc2system thinks RoF’s post was a contribution. What? You just said you would lynch RoF without a contribution. And then didn’t. At least for me, the only thing I would get from that is a New town/bad town vibe from Sc2system.
What I think is happening here is he thinks for some reason that Sc2System will be able to clarify himself more on night 1/day 2, and that Rise wont, and therefore wants to try to lynch System ASAP so he can also get a RoF vote in the next day. And then he notes that he would switch his vote if necessary, which would just allow him to accuse the other guy the next day.
After this BlueyD posts some fluff about being here, notes repeatedly that he wants a sc2system lynch more, even hinting to rise to vote for sc2system. Manipulation from our wannabe town leader.
When he realizes that the vote is more likely to go through on rise, he switches.
After the lynch his only comment is, :
+ Show Spoiler +On March 24 2012 23:54 BlueyD wrote:
Of course we'll modify our opinions based on night 1 and day 2, but for the moment I still think my case against sc2system remains reasonably strong, and if there were a 2nd vote right now I'm sure he would get lynched on the spot.
Once again he tries to act the leader, telling us that we will change our thoughts based on events that pass, and notes how System is still a good lynch candidate.
Overall BlueyD is trying to act the leader while sitting back and letting things happen, letting everyone destroy themselves as he watches from a safe distance and guides us every so often. He is manipulating it so that we can come off of one townie lynch to go right to another lynch, and constantly reminding us that we should be suspicious of System still. His voting is wishy washy, (not how he changes his votes, but how he decides to vote for system in the first place), posts lots of fluff and corrects many typos etc, and has not done a good job explaining himself.
##FoS: BlueyD
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Hum, you have some good point there but you could have add these two post as well
+ Show Spoiler +On March 24 2012 07:57 BlueyD wrote:
Note: I haven't vote counted, but I'm still here for a few hours (MLG yay!) and will switch for Rise if we need a majority when the time limit gets near, but I would much prefer to see sc2master lynched.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 24 2012 08:38 BlueyD wrote:
Hint to Rise, if he's still around: Switching his vote to sc2system might let him stay alive another day.
It seems like it is 100% sure that these two are the lynch target for the first 2 day when everything can happen during day 1 that can change anything.
Personnally after seeing Rise flip Town I think that Sc2system is most likely a town that can't put his thought together. I believe that his day 1 posting are mostly inexperienced post and that if he try a bit he could come up with some good thing. I just know that for now i'm not willing to vote for him on day 2 yet.
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On March 25 2012 04:56 Seviro wrote:Hum, you have some good point there but you could have add these two post as well + Show Spoiler +On March 24 2012 07:57 BlueyD wrote:
Note: I haven't vote counted, but I'm still here for a few hours (MLG yay!) and will switch for Rise if we need a majority when the time limit gets near, but I would much prefer to see sc2master lynched. On March 24 2012 08:38 BlueyD wrote:
Hint to Rise, if he's still around: Switching his vote to sc2system might let him stay alive another day. It seems like it is 100% sure that these two are the lynch target for the first 2 day when everything can happen during day 1 that can change anything. Personnally after seeing Rise flip Town I think that Sc2system is most likely a town that can't put his thought together. I believe that his day 1 posting are mostly inexperienced post and that if he try a bit he could come up with some good thing. I just know that for now i'm not willing to vote for him on day 2 yet.
RoF's behaviour is independent of Sc2systems. Just because RoF flipped town does not mean that sc2system is going to also (neither does it mean it is scum... it means literally nothing).
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Or do you mean that the analysis on RoF was wrong? If so explain.
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Reply to Nova_Terra:
My rush to vote for sc2system with no immediate explanation was due to mementoss hurrying me up, saying people were leaving, which they were. At that point I was hoping to reverse the vote in order to lynch sc2system due to legitimate reasons, but didn't get there in time. I could've waited until aftermy dinner to post my vote at the same time as the whole explanation, but then I would've been there even later!
On gaining information by lynching Rise: I was comparing the information we could get by lynching sc2system and Rise, assuming our lynch turned out to be scum. We really don't gain much info right now by lynching townies. That's not the only criterion used to determine who we lynch, though: Likelihood of being scum is a big thing, and imo sc2system beat Rise by far there. Rise's behavior is less suspicious since the excuse that he's not very bright at all works pretty well for everything he's done. sc2system's behavior, meanwhile, just looked chaotic for no reason. Do I have to even mention he voted for someone saying "ok if you say so" as the only explanation?
My threats directed at Rise were meant to pressure him to post more to explain himself. You don't pressure someone by saying "oh, but I'm still split between you and the inactive", because that's just weak play. When I made them, I fully intended to put my vote for his lynch IF nothing else suspicious came up. I couldn't guess that sc2system would, during the few hours I wasn't there, start acting so erratically and make his case worse. Rise's case, meanwhile, didn't really move.
My telling Rise to vote for sc2system can hardly be called manipulation. I do it right there in the open and I don't care if you guys see it! I think the guy has proven himself to be so bad that he needs another player to point out the one way he might be able to survive the vote. And indeed, he goes on to screw up the voting format and not be counted, further adding to the evidence for him just being awful...
+ Show Spoiler +Yeah, I did that too. Oops! First time playing, didn't think the bold was important. Corrected myself in time, though.
You shouldn't really criticise me for posting fluff as my first post (no first post can really say much in these games) or 'correcting many typos' (which I didn't do, closest I came to this is continuing a post after submitting accidentally).
Your case against me seems really weak, but if you have more specific questions, I'll answer them...
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On March 25 2012 05:23 froggynoddy wrote:
Or do you mean that the analysis on RoF was wrong? If so explain.
Well he was town so obviously something gone wrong.
That said, I reread sc2system filters and yeah it has nothing to do with Rise's one.
The vote change and fast bandwagonning could be attribuate to newbie mistakes but a post like this,
+ Show Spoiler +On March 24 2012 05:58 sc2system wrote:
Hai all,
I am withdrawing my vote for Rise Of Fenix because I said in my post that if he starts caring more about the game that I will withdraw it.
That is one of the reasons I posted my vote very early so he can read it and decide If he is going to try to help the townies. If I am right the mafia will not all vote for the same person becuase that would make them stand out. I have seen some posts before when people accuse other people and others agree but not all of them vote, and they dont even accuse anyone else after that. (Hope you understand if you need a explenation of what I tried to say just ask [english is not my first language]).
##Vote: No Lynch
And I did write that I like to confuse people but that is only when they use invalid arguments that ruin the game. For example if we all vote on X becuase Y was killed by the mafia and Y accused X the previous day. This is an invalid argument so this is when I like to inverse the logic and I say: What if the mafia wanted us to think that and they get a double kill, or what if they knew that we knew that and they just did the first step. Confused? Good. And this only works with invalid arguments.
Hope that is all I wanted to say...
Like other said, Rise didn't post of value before or after this post so there was no reason to unvote him, and the second part of the post doesn't make any sense, this is basically the definition of WIFOM.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 24 2012 08:04 sc2system wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2012 07:46 virtu wrote:
you might want to hit refresh sc2system, i've posted multiple times. Sorry I hit F5 (refresh but I was clicked out of the window) I am so sorry =S And I am not voting to kill Rise Of Fenix even though I would do becuase his comeback is bad. But I am felling that the mafia is manipulating us and I believe that ROF is the person to kill. I believe that he is a villager so if you want to kill the a person that is lurking but is a villager (i believe) then go ahead. Becuase if we dont kill him that is only a extra person for the mafia to kill. One more thing is that if ROF is mafia it is possible that the mafia are killing one of them so they seem to not to be mafia becuase their vote killed a mafia member. I cant decide so I am voting for a no lynch. ##unvote: virtu##vote: no lynch
And here he is WIFOMing hard to explain why he doesn't vote on Rise and add confusing stuff about mafia killing each other, that doesn't make sense.
There is more of his post that add very few things and are just confusing, I still don't know tho if he is worth the day 2 lynch, everything can happen but indeed it does look grim for him.
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What is your opinion on the Seviro/Artanis thing? What are your current reads on them?
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sorry, got ninja'ed, i meant that to be for BlueyD.
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On March 25 2012 05:26 BlueyD wrote:
Rise's behavior is less suspicious since the excuse that he's not very bright at all works pretty well for everything he's done. sc2system's behavior, meanwhile, just looked chaotic for no reason. Do I have to even mention he voted for someone saying "ok if you say so" as the only explanation?
This I find weak. The same excuse used for Rise can be used for sc2system with little effort. He doesn't seem to be thinking about his posts much either so if you're going to use that excuse for Rise, it'd apply to sc2system as well.
The overarching 'taking leadership without many contributions' theme didn't sit well with me either when I was rereading the thread here.
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Yes, That didnt really seem to be mentioned in his defense. i am trying to go over it for my thoughts now.
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First think i want to note is just a question. Why do you think that sc2system is more likely to be scum than a very bad townie?
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I'd also like to see Virtu post some more. Came up with analysis on RoF, sc2system and Ninja4ever on one post but haven't seen too much from him other then that. Hasn't really given his opinion on anything that could be considered controversial, just on lurkers/bad posters which are easy prey.
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EPT
