EPTIt also seems odd that you just defend him for claiming cop without questioning the fact that he may lie in this game about "Lies and deception"?
A Game of Thrones Mafia - Page 44
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Zealos
United Kingdom3576 Posts
It also seems odd that you just defend him for claiming cop without questioning the fact that he may lie in this game about "Lies and deception"? | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
At the risk of having another one of my mspaint pictures placed into the TL Mafia quiz...this should be all the reasonable permutations of what's currently going on. I left out Risen fake claiming cop as town since that's just too crazy and makes no sense...If i've missed one please left me know. ![[image loading]](http://i42.tinypic.com/33lmbkp.png) The first two where risen is townie DT would just be Risen getting too excited about a red check coming back and so he claimed. Blew his load too quickly if you will. In these cases Risen would not be lying but it's also uncertain if acro is mafia or not and acro's flip would tell us very little about Risen's alignment as well since case three and four could be true. If the third one was the case then I'd think it's likely Acro was framed and then Risen "DT checked" him. In that case, Risen doesn't even have to be a real DT. This places a lot of scrutiny on Risen for the rest of the game but would work as a way to move the discussion away from a mafia member that was under pressure. I did this successfully in TL Mafia XLIV The fourth one seems unlikely since it's basically sacrificing one mafia member to possibly buy "town cred" for the other. Risen thought he was under scrutiny and so he sacrifices himself to be lynched so that when he flips mafia, acro can get town cred. Looking at only the permutations, it looks like we should just lynch one and shoot the other to clear up all confusion. There's a 75% chance that we'll kill at least one mafia and 25% we'll lose two townies. But there's also a 25% we can kill two mafia. Once both flip, we should have a clearer picture of what's going on. | ||
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Zealos
United Kingdom3576 Posts
1. Risen is standard Mafia 2. Risen is standard townie, trying to get out of a lynch (obviously very unlikely) | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
On March 26 2012 03:17 Zealos wrote: You missed out a couple of possibilities. 1. Risen is standard Mafia 2. Risen is standard townie, trying to get out of a lynch (obviously very unlikely) Oh doh! I forgot to include the /normal mafia after the DT mafia part in my picture. but yeah, it works either way. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18244 Posts
Valar morghulis. | ||
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Zealos
United Kingdom3576 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18244 Posts
I just fail to see why mafia needs to be DT. Is there some strange mechanic in the game where mafia can't see other mafia? Mafia knows mafia, right? So why does it matter whether risen is DT or not if he's mafia? If he's mafia, he knows I'm a townie. What I don't know is why anybody is paying any attention to him. Actually, now that I think about it a bit more, I have a theory. The way he jumped in just 2 hours before the deadline to blueclaim is exceedingly damning. If he's really blue this must be the worst possible timing. Additionally he uses WBG's drivel as an excuse insofar as he needed one. On March 25 2012 06:53 Risen wrote: Pretty sure he's telling scum not to rb him so he can shoot me. Also, should I roleclaim? Everyone seems to want me dead. How is this not a mafia setup? If he really is a DT, he was just setting himself up to be offed by a mobster. If, however, he is mafia, he knows he's not getting killed by his teammates. With his earlier pushes for me to get vig'd he suspected I would react. This just sets him up for his day 2 play of painting me as scum: 1. He has put me and him directly opposit each other. 2. He has announced his blue claim prior to it actually happening. It also makes sense of a lot of his really crappy posting yesterday evening. | ||
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Risen
United States7927 Posts
On March 26 2012 03:44 Acrofales wrote: Chaoser. I agree with your possible cases. You also drew them a lot prettier than I did in my post against Risen's earlier case. I just fail to see why mafia needs to be DT. Is there some strange mechanic in the game where mafia can't see other mafia? Mafia knows mafia, right? So why does it matter whether risen is DT or not if he's mafia? If he's mafia, he knows I'm a townie. What I don't know is why anybody is paying any attention to him. Actually, now that I think about it a bit more, I have a theory. The way he jumped in just 2 hours before the deadline to blueclaim is exceedingly damning. If he's really blue this must be the worst possible timing. Additionally he uses WBG's drivel as an excuse insofar as he needed one. How is this not a mafia setup? If he really is a DT, he was just setting himself up to be offed by a mobster. If, however, he is mafia, he knows he's not getting killed by his teammates. With his earlier pushes for me to get vig'd he suspected I would react. This just sets him up for his day 2 play of painting me as scum: 1. He has put me and him directly opposit each other. 2. He has announced his blue claim prior to it actually happening. It also makes sense of a lot of his really crappy posting yesterday evening. You're an idiot for not claiming miller at this point. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18244 Posts
Okay, so Risen is SCUM. My vote today is in the right place. Now what can we learn about last night's kills? Firstly, SLJ never visited Evantrees like he claimed he would. However, I guess he might've been blocked. I am inclined to think both kills are mafia hits, because they have the same MO. I like MrZentor's analysis of DoYouHas' death, so I'll try my hand at SLJ. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18244 Posts
On March 26 2012 03:46 Risen wrote: You're an idiot for not claiming miller at this point. Okay. In that case I'm an idiot. I am not a miller. | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
On March 26 2012 03:46 Risen wrote: You're an idiot for not claiming miller at this point. Er, I don't know if you know but miller isn't a role. Thus you can't really "claim" miller since you don't know yourself if you are a miller or not. If you really did "check" acro then you shouldn't be able to tell if he's a miller or if he got framed or if he's straight up mafia. The fact that you didn't even mention the notion of him being framed is interesting...why did you go straight to telling him he's an idiot for "not claiming miller"? Aside from Acro, if he was unlynchable today, who do you think is scummy? | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18244 Posts
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
for the most part it sounds like people are saying something along the lines of "i wouldn't do that as DT" or "he must be an idiot to do that as DT" or "This way of playing DT doesn't help town" 2 of these say nothing about alignment. playing stupid or different from how you would play it dont mean scum. and there are a ton of examples of townies playing in a not pro-town manner. If we flip acro first and he flips scum or miller, we save the life of a townie and save a lynch. if we flip acro first and he flips town, we get to see what happens to risen at night, and then lynch him. if we flip risen first and he flips scum, we don't learn anything about acro BUT HURRAY WE LYNCH SCUM if we flip risen first and hes town DT, we waste a lynch on a confirmable townie, and acro gets lynched the next day I feel it is a lot safer to lynch acro first | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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Zealos
United Kingdom3576 Posts
On March 26 2012 04:22 Mattchew wrote: can someone tell me why we would want to take a risk of lynching the guy who claims dt first? for the most part it sounds like people are saying something along the lines of "i wouldn't do that as DT" or "he must be an idiot to do that as DT" or "This way of playing DT doesn't help town" 2 of these say nothing about alignment. playing stupid or different from how you would play it dont mean scum. and there are a ton of examples of townies playing in a not pro-town manner. If we flip acro first and he flips scum or miller, we save the life of a townie and save a lynch. if we flip acro first and he flips town, we get to see what happens to risen at night, and then lynch him. if we flip risen first and he flips scum, we don't learn anything about acro BUT HURRAY WE LYNCH SCUM if we flip risen first and hes town DT, we waste a lynch on a confirmable townie, and acro gets lynched the next day I feel it is a lot safer to lynch acro first What if acro is the real DT and he is playing it well by not claiming? | ||
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Zealos
United Kingdom3576 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18244 Posts
Now on to the posts. Given that SLJ's process of analysis is by elimination, as stated here: These, insofar as I can see in the filter are his only two real reads. He later says he's not too sure about Mattchew anymore, but never follows it up. He consistently harps on Greymist and Chaoser. Can someone confirm that these are the two other veteran players in the game, and they probably know eachothers' playstyles rather well? Here's another exerpt: On March 24 2012 03:37 SamuelLJackson wrote: The difference is that he is active and I'm not confident enough on him flipping mafia to push him for a day 1 lynch. I have him leaning scum on my spread sheet as I do chaoser. However if the lynch is between him and mattchew I will vote greymist. The final bit on Greymist is this: On March 24 2012 07:24 SamuelLJackson wrote: How is that frustrating and has town really "collectively switched lynch targets 3 times"? Your frustration doesn't feel genuine to me Which seems a bit meaningless. Especially as Greymist was on the line to get lynched at the point this was posted. Mafia or town, I doubt he wanted to get lynched, so real or feigned, he was probably posting to get out of getting lynched. Aside from what he said above, he said about Chaoser: On March 22 2012 17:12 SamuelLJackson wrote: Do you intend to keep not posting? Any thoughts on Oberyn yet? Risen you've yet to express a single opinion that in any way relates to the game Chaoser I don't like this point you brought up Does the highlighted section in any way have relate to his alignment? Weird and problematic? This reads like something a person who has to force cases would say. Moreover, do you think it's more likely for new scum or new town to make such a ridiculous role claim inquiry? You've posted some content, but it's a bit light in terms of actual accusations; even when you assert mattchew is fake tunnelling, you don't vote for him nor do you call him scum. You say people should be aware of how much we are posting and that you will be "keeping tabs on" gumshoe. Would you be up to lynching Oberyn today? /syllogism I kinda agree with this post, but just as with Greymist it seems far from damning. The fact that he chose to vote for Layabout on day 1 (and in fact started the bandwagon) seems to indicate that he himself (they themselves) were not sold on the idea of lynching Greymist or Chaoser. I am unsure how either of these two cases lead to either Greymist or Chaoser getting scared enough to kill him. Both Sandroba and Syllogism seem to have a LOT of experience playing this game, though, so it might have been enough. However, I think the main reason he was killed is because the mobsters saw something that I cannot know how they guessed: his blue role. The fact that he did not kill Evantrees as he claimed he would, seems to indicate he was roleblocked and then hacked to bits by mafia. For the life of me I don't know how they did it and I have just gone through his filter with a comb. There is no breadcrumb to Syrio there. | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
On March 26 2012 04:22 Mattchew wrote: can someone tell me why we would want to take a risk of lynching the guy who claims dt first? for the most part it sounds like people are saying something along the lines of "i wouldn't do that as DT" or "he must be an idiot to do that as DT" or "This way of playing DT doesn't help town" 2 of these say nothing about alignment. playing stupid or different from how you would play it dont mean scum. and there are a ton of examples of townies playing in a not pro-town manner. If we flip acro first and he flips scum or miller, we save the life of a townie and save a lynch. if we flip acro first and he flips town, we get to see what happens to risen at night, and then lynch him. if we flip risen first and he flips scum, we don't learn anything about acro BUT HURRAY WE LYNCH SCUM if we flip risen first and hes town DT, we waste a lynch on a confirmable townie, and acro gets lynched the next day I feel it is a lot safer to lynch acro first Once again, this doesn't take into account the OP. Are you not reading or are you purposefully being ignorant? If acro flips scum or miller, we DON'T KNOW if risen is town or not. So we would not be saving a townie or a lynch. We would still be in WIFOM. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18244 Posts
On March 22 2012 01:17 SamuelLJackson wrote: Yes it's me. I guess you guys don't need me to sign my posts then =P I'll take advantage of this post to inform you that I don't know shit about GoT and I'll strike down with great anger people that are using too much useless flavor in their posts. There might be a vig crumb somewhere, but I cannot find it. | ||
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