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On March 22 2012 23:11 VisceraEyes wrote:
Okay, the way I see it we're either flipping slOosh or we're no-lynching.
##Unvote: Probulous
##Vote: slOosh
Not sure how I feel about it, given the roleblock claim. If it's legit, initial reaction is that he's probably town...but going back over his filter, he doesn't do anything like blue-slip or lurk or anything. I can't imagine why scum would roleblock him.
So, if I had to guess, I'd say that it was town who roleblocked him and scum who roleblocked me. Obviously speculation, but it at least puts my mind at ease about flipping slOosh...the chances are much greater that slOosh is scum (in my eyes) since it appears that town RB'd slOosh.
If anyone has any serious reservations about slOosh flipping, now is the time guys. If we want to switch targets, we need to start talking about it now. I'm okay with slOosh flipping, myself.
I'm guessing that it was for this exact purpose that scum would roleblock me - to put in hesitation and such.
But think about it - you claimed roleblock before me. Why would I as scum claim an additional roleblock?
But I guess that too is WIFOM.
Is there anything else I can do to prove my innocence?
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P.S. please look at my post which unfortunately is at the bottom of the previous page.
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On March 22 2012 23:11 VisceraEyes wrote:
If anyone has any serious reservations about slOosh flipping, now is the time guys. If we want to switch targets, we need to start talking about it now. I'm okay with slOosh flipping, myself.
I think it goes without saying that I want to see slOosh flip.
I'm gonna need to sleep in an hour or so, I'm exhausted. If Sandroba has a switch in mind I'll have to know really soon, or my vote will be staying on slOosh overnight.
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It's not about proving your innocence at this point - it's about finding a viable different candidate. If you really want to save yourself, convince town to lynch someone else. Just coming in and asking everyone "how you can prove your innocence" is ridiculous - because even if you followed the instructions to the letter, that doesn't do anything to "prove your innocence" because you asked.
So is Probulous your lynch of choice?
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This is blue posting but laya and I have discussed and heres an explanation
+ Show Spoiler +I sent this to blue this morning since i have some time off but very for another 15 min or so
- Hide Spoiler -
Here is why i switched to Jackal:
He gave us no reason to believe he was town.
There were two things that looked bad for him in my eyes:
When he voted for Dirkzor it appeared to be because VE prodded him about it not because he thought that Dirkzor was scum.
When he voted for snarfs he could not have taken much time to think about his vote and he was just blending in rather than pushing his own reads.
Thus, he did not appear to be looking for scum, and was an acceptable lynch.
The vote for snarfs did not come until quite late. Since our posts about him came before that the only things that made him look bad were his dirkzor vote and his typically scummy playstyle, which i do not feel justifies a vote.
Since we nearly killed him on day1 for meta reasons in jubjub (he later flipped town) i was not sure about voting for him based on meta alone.
But with the vote for snarfs there was enough to support a vote.
Also since Sandroba lead the wagon it was almost certainly not being controlled by scum.
All of that being said it was still a bit of a coin-flip, Jackal was not being obvious scum and anybody that tells you that he was is either scum or delusional.
Probuluos's case is largely centered around two things:
You directing DT check's
which sandro (the town mason) has done since then, i think VE and Tobon or Johnny might have done so as well
Us "defending Jackal"
which we didn't really do.
so you don't need to worry about his case
/laya
I have my own defense to Probulous's case but I am still making it into a post.
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On March 22 2012 23:35 VisceraEyes wrote:
It's not about proving your innocence at this point - it's about finding a viable different candidate. If you really want to save yourself, convince town to lynch someone else. Just coming in and asking everyone "how you can prove your innocence" is ridiculous - because even if you followed the instructions to the letter, that doesn't do anything to "prove your innocence" because you asked.
So is Probulous your lynch of choice?
Yes Probulous is my lynch of choice.
Summary why:
- Spends most of D1 lurking under the guise of activity by defending a townie
- Has built multiple cases against me and TIPD that were found to be poorly reasoned / with logical holes
- In the posts where people think he "makes sense" , the subject matter isn't about me or his case on me but rather concerning his reads on VE and TIPD. This also is the source of much of his "activity".
- Thought process that both me and TIPD are scum make no sense
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I also agree with a Probulous lynch.
In addition to what slOosh has said, he claims that he thought I was scum until the Jackal lynch - that the Jackal lynch was the only thing that "confirms" me. Yet he unvotes long before the flip - he was content with my defense against his points, but still is not satisfied with my explanations.
His stories are conflicting.
I prefer a Probulous lynch.
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On March 21 2012 08:06 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2012 07:40 Snarfs wrote:On March 21 2012 07:31 sandroba wrote:
Yeah I can agree with that. I'd like to hear arguments from everyone though, since I'm not very sure myself. I'm leaning towards Nemesis being town. After my initial vote, he hasn't done anything to raise my suspicions, and as I stated before the day post I think his tunneling of one of the stronger players this game doesn't make much sense from a scum point of view. This is my feeling too. I think Sloosh is mafia and Nemesis has been pushing Sloosh as well. I find it hard to believe that mafia would be bussing Day 2 given they lost Jackal with the first lynch. I'll take another look and see if I can find anything. ##Vote: Sloosh
Caught this with a reread. Makes it more damning that he somehow considers both me and TIPD to be scum.
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On March 22 2012 10:53 Nemesis wrote:
You know what, I think I'll stick to my sloosh vote.
What do you think in light of my posts?
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slOosh and VE, I agree with your thoughts, I''m gonna try discuss this with Layabout when possible
/Blue
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To be fair, as sandroba (I think) explained, scum are going to bus the shit out of their teammates today. Whether you're scum or not, if a wagon gains immediate traction as yours did, scum have no choice but to go along at least at first.
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Just for explainig guys, I will switch to Probulous if you guys decide to lynch him.
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Well, are we doing the switch? I'm going off in 5 minutes or so, now or never for me.
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On March 23 2012 00:32 VisceraEyes wrote:
To be fair, as sandroba (I think) explained, scum are going to bus the shit out of their teammates today. Whether you're scum or not, if a wagon gains immediate traction as yours did, scum have no choice but to go along at least at first.
Yea I can see your point. Sucks to be me :/
Can other people start weighing in asap? There is no benefit to just waiting until Sandroba posts and sheeping him - he himself said that he gets his most useful information when it isn't driven by him. More information = Sandroba can make better decision = better chance of town victory.
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On March 23 2012 00:39 Toad_in_Pink_Dress wrote:
Just for explainig guys, I will switch to Probulous if you guys decide to lynch him.
So you think both of us have good chance of flipping scum so you don't care either way?
You said I make sense. Does Probulous also make as much sense?
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On March 23 2012 00:26 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2012 08:06 Probulous wrote:On March 21 2012 07:40 Snarfs wrote:
I'm leaning towards Nemesis being town. After my initial vote, he hasn't done anything to raise my suspicions, and as I stated before the day post I think his tunneling of one of the stronger players this game doesn't make much sense from a scum point of view. This is my feeling too. I think Sloosh is mafia and Nemesis has been pushing Sloosh as well. I find it hard to believe that mafia would be bussing Day 2 given they lost Jackal with the first lynch. I'll take another look and see if I can find anything. ##Vote: Sloosh Caught this with a reread. Makes it more damning that he somehow considers both me and TIPD to be scum.
Why would this be damning to Probulous? It's certainly _possible_ that both you and TIPD are scum. What's the supposed inconsistency here?
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On March 23 2012 01:09 Tobon wrote:Show nested quote +On March 23 2012 00:26 slOosh wrote:On March 21 2012 08:06 Probulous wrote:On March 21 2012 07:40 Snarfs wrote:
I'm leaning towards Nemesis being town. After my initial vote, he hasn't done anything to raise my suspicions, and as I stated before the day post I think his tunneling of one of the stronger players this game doesn't make much sense from a scum point of view. This is my feeling too. I think Sloosh is mafia and Nemesis has been pushing Sloosh as well. I find it hard to believe that mafia would be bussing Day 2 given they lost Jackal with the first lynch. I'll take another look and see if I can find anything. ##Vote: Sloosh Caught this with a reread. Makes it more damning that he somehow considers both me and TIPD to be scum. Why would this be damning to Probulous? It's certainly _possible_ that both you and TIPD are scum. What's the supposed inconsistency here?
It is possible. But, if that were true, you would have to agree to the three points I laid out.
On March 22 2012 23:23 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2012 18:59 Probulous wrote:
You are really stretching here. A bandwagon of any sort is scummy because you don't provide any reasoning for your vote. As for TIPD, I spent all morning defending myself from accusations I wasnt scum hunting. When I got the chance I took a look at those on the Jackal wagon and he jumped out at me.
Based on your reads that both me and TIPD are scum, you are willing to believe all of the following: 1) As a scum team we decided that one of us should bandwagon Jackal and the other one should stay off and draw attention onto themselves 2) As a scum team, now that I am suspicious in D2 we decide that we should do the softest bus ever and the best possible way to do it without suspicion is Show nested quote +On March 21 2012 08:15 Toad_in_Pink_Dress wrote:
We have agreed to vote slOosh
##Vote: slOosh 3) As a scum team, I was willing to point out that TIPD was lurking on D1 and draw attention to him unnecessarily Show nested quote +On March 19 2012 14:30 slOosh wrote:Has everyone just learned to ignore TIPD (Toad_in_Pink_Dress)'s posts? Contents of filter: - bunch of fluff - expression of suspicion on Tobon but no actions indicating a desire to make a better judgement as indicated by general inactivity and his lack of response to this quote On March 19 2012 07:01 Tobon wrote:On March 19 2012 06:51 Toad_in_Pink_Dress wrote:
We are suspicious of Tobon but wish to see more posts from him before making a judgement that we can agree upon. Tha't fine. And what are your thoughts about VE's vote and then unvote for Johnnywup? And which, out of Sloosh and Xsksc do you think makes the better case? - a desire to lynch Nemesis without backing up with any reasoning and again when in the midst of intense scrutiny the first thing I choose to voice is my concern of TIPD's lurking again Show nested quote +On March 21 2012 14:06 slOosh wrote:
Concerns right now:
TIPD is lurking hard and threw a vote on me without any reasoning. As it is I think the whole town is lynching me, so you will find scum on that list - and this is the same concern I had about jackal lynch - there isn't any voting pattern analysis but people sheeping and bandwagoning without repercussions.
VE did point out that Sandroba followed up with the scum-will-bus-regardless explanation, so it isn't damning in itself. I just think that post lends weight to my case that his reads are inconsistent and full of holes. Everything is possible - but when the improbable stacks up something is fishy. I mean, look at his town read on VE - it's basically founded upon the improbable principle but he doesn't apply the same thing with his reads on me and TIPD? That is the inconsistency.
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On March 22 2012 07:08 Tobon wrote:
I'd rather lynch slOosh, and I'll tell you why: the role block claim.
I think Probulous and slOosh are both equally probable scum. And I see VE switching targets so that we won't flip slOosh, just as soon as the discussion about how unlikely 2 role blockers are died down a bit.
So if slOosh is scum, we lynch scum (yay!), but if slOosh is town, we lynch VE tomorrow.
While you are here could you elaborate on this / give your updated read on the situation?
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Rereading Probulous's filter. Will respond more fully in a bit.
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What's damning about Probulous is that his reads and reasoning don't match. Mostly pertaining to his read of me. I'm trying to figure out how to explain this better because it seems to be confusing everyone.
As far as I can see, Probulous' reasoning for suspecting me is the following:- "bad" case on johnnywup
- unvote of johnnywup
- inconsistent actions
- "loquacious"
The thing about his read though is that it changed over the course of our interactions. Why? My reasoning was never sufficient for him. I never refuted is point about not wanting to kill johnny. My actions, strictly speaking, should still be inconsistent, and he should still be suspicious of me. But he proceeds to unvote after I say that I talk a lot. Before the Jackal flip.
Yet when pressured about the reasoning for pushing me yesterday as scum, this was Probulous' response.
On March 22 2012 07:18 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2012 02:05 sandroba wrote:
SlOosh is behaving like townie right now and probulous doesn't seem to care too much about this game. I heard from someone that he is normally very good and very active. Day1 he spent the whole day bickering about your unvote on johnny and going around in circles. Also no one (besides you) really tried to keep votes away from jackal and probulous was mia at that time. His argument about slOosh trying to distance himself from jackal with that post right before the lynch does not make sense, because that post actually accomplishes the opposite. You seem to be forgetting I am on the other side of the world. I am here and posting but everyone else is in the middle of the night. So when I log on in the morning there are pages of stuff to read just before the deadline. Normally the deadlines are later so people are on later and I can push and drive discussion. You call it bickering, I call it putting VE in his place. He could well be scum, his vote to seal the Jackal lynch is what "confirms" him. He knew his case was shit yet he was actively pushing for the lynch. I even asked him if he intended to lynch Johnny and he made it clear that he did. Then he says he knew he case was weak. Are you telling me that discussion was useless?
The thing that made him town in my mind was his Jackal vote. He could have pulled a Sloosh and said he wasn't sure, hell he thought he was town for most of the first day, but he hammered Jackal and for that he gets a town read. I explained why I was MIA. That post of Sloosh puts us in a WIFOM situation. Did he do it because he wanted town to reason he wouldn't do it as scum? I think VE's point about how it contradicts his earlier positioning on you is a great point that I missed. I also think it highly unreasonable that anyone would doubt a mason claim from you on day 1. It is way way way too risky a scum move and to assume otherwise is a huge logical fail. I just don't see Sloosh actually believing you could be scum.
Then why the unvote before the flip? What about my defense was the most compelling Probulous? Because the whole paragraph before you explain how I was "confirmed" for you, you spent describing how I'm still suspicious according to your reasoning. If you thought I was scum before Jackal flipped, why did you unvote when you did? Why weren't you voting for me to be lynched with Nemesis?+ Show Spoiler +I think you were setting yourself up to do whatever you wanted today, according to town sentiment. I think you knew Jackal would flip scum, but just in case sandroba pushed for my lynch today (he's said he's suspicious of me several times this game,) you could jump on-board with no repercussions.
##Unvote: slOosh
##Vote: Probulous
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EPT
