EPT##Unvote
##Vote: Probulous
C9++ Mini Mafia - Page 43
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: Probulous | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
Probulous is verbose, so if you think he's making sense as town, you have to assume he's capable of making sense as scum. Explain what's so frustrating about this game. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
Another thing that I wish Probulous had time to respond to would be his reasoning for why johnnywup gets the confused noob treatment but Tobon is clearly scum day 1. Stupid timezones. Then there is the gap between his last statement on day 1 and his case on slOosh, which doesn't make sense with the called into office thing because the last statement on day 1 would have been around 4:30pm his time. I don't like voting people just for reasons such as that because everybody gets busy and that's not a good reason to lynch, but adding it with everything that everyone else is mentioning it seems more suspicious. I hope this isn't wrong. ##Unvote ##Vote Probulous | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
But Probulous never mentioned any of the seemingly scummy bits about TIPD on day 1. He only started pushing TIPD on day 2, after he was already a target himself, and after most of the decent reasons to suspect TIPD were already moot. I think he was trying to gin up a wagon, any wagon, by going back and looking at suspicions of the more newb easily convincible sorts (e.g. me) and trying to play on them. I also find Sloosh's argument convincing about how silly it would be for TIPD and Sloosh to have played things the way they've unfolded if they were both scum. I also think it remains likeliest that we're in the simple scenario where our remaining 2 scum are in the Sloosh/Probulous/Nemesis set of non-Jackal voters. So I find Probulous completely ignoring Nemesis as a potential target to deflect attention from himself suspicious as well. At this point those two (Prob/Nem) look like best scum bets to me. Finally, I can't quite put my finger on the exact analogy, but this really feels like a Monty Hall Problem to me, where a switch is always statistically better, no matter what your original choice. ##Unvote ##Vote: Probulous | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
On March 23 2012 02:22 Tobon wrote: Finally, I can't quite put my finger on the exact analogy, but this really feels like a Monty Hall Problem to me, where a switch is always statistically better, no matter what your original choice. I'm sure it doesn't feel that way to Probulous, regardless of his alignment.  | ||
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Dirkzor
Denmark1944 Posts
##Vote slOosh I won't be back before lynch so this will be it. If you decide to lynch Probulous I see no problem. | ||
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
I'll be getting one up shortly. Oh wtf I got ninjaed | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Day 2 Votecount so far Probulous (6): SlOosh, sloOsh (5): Nemisis, Should be correct. If you see your name somewhere wrong please tell me. I just searched for bolded text real quick so if you voted without bolding your text I probably missed it. Or I'm just stupid and missed it because I was trying to make this real quick. Edit: Oh and with 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch Edit: fixed  , TIPD on sloOsh as well | ||
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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Toad_in_Pink_Dress
United States50 Posts
I can assure you that i too am waiting on this On March 22 2012 23:47 Toad_in_Pink_Dress wrote: I have my own defense to Probulous's case but I am still making it into a post. We are willing to switch and so we shall. ##unvote ##vote Probulous | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
6 to lynch roughly 2 hours remain in the day slOosh (5) Nemesis xsksc Probulous Tobon johnnywup Dirkzor Probulous (6) slOosh VisceraEyes sandroba Snarfs Tobon Toad_In_Pink_Dress | ||
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
On March 22 2012 08:19 Probulous wrote: VE I don't understand your case. I am scum because I didn't think you were mafia after you voted for Jackal? What is wrong with my reasoning because it still makes sense to me?Votes > words in my opinion. Explain this to me because I am completely at a loss as to why this makes me scum. I am town and have followed the same logic I use every game so if there is something fundamentally wrong in my thinking, point it out. Otherwise I am going to get mis-lynched again. Does everyone else understand what VE is saying? On March 22 2012 10:11 Probulous wrote: You "Jackal is clearly town" TIPD "Jackal always lurks Day 1 and this is scummy" Big difference in my mind. i thought votes>words? TIPD voted for jackal as well, so why doesnt that confirm him? + Show Spoiler + On March 22 2012 10:30 Probulous wrote: Ok let me explain that quote nice and simply because obviously I am not making myself clear. here (Klicky) they say this Which says what exactly? That Jackal typically looks scummy? How is that not a soft-defense? They are saying he looks scummy most of the time. His lurking is "typically" scummy so why should they vote for him. If they thought he was scummy they would have said "Jackal looks scummy", not that he typically looks scummy. That word changes the whole meaning of the sentence. Then four people vote for him and suddenly it becomes this (Klicky) Which can be summed up as "Jackal has been useless". How is this not his "typically" scummy play? I'll tell you how, four other people have started a wagon that's how. hm? i thought #5 was pretty early? On March 22 2012 09:52 Probulous wrote: The only thing going for TIPD right now is their vote on Jackal. It was pretty early (5th vote) and most people who voted for him seemed to bandwagon sandroba. I could easily see them being bussing Jackal to avoid suspicion today. I am more comfortable with a slOosh lynch because of his unvote, but if he is getting let off (why?) than TIPD is our lynch target today. as well as what other people have brought up ##unvote slOosh ##vote Probulous | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Still on my phone, if there is a counting issue with my vote count please inform me immediately. | ||
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
On March 23 2012 05:01 johnnywup wrote: also tobon monty hall doesnt apply here because no persons role was revealed during a vote There's also not guaranteed to be scum inside our lynch candidates, technically speaking. That is unless you know something we don't. It's an interesting analogy though... | ||
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