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johnnywup
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States3858 Posts
March 22 2012 20:12 GMT
#861
also it's not strictly probability in this context
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21171 Posts
March 22 2012 20:13 GMT
#862
Also <3
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
johnnywup
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States3858 Posts
March 22 2012 20:18 GMT
#863
lets catch scum...together! ♥

anyways i guess we just wait for the end of the day for now...dont think anythings gonna change till end of day
Tobon
Profile Joined March 2011
United States372 Posts
March 22 2012 20:37 GMT
#864
Yeah, obviously there's not a direct parallel (townies are goats? scum is the new car?), it's more of a feeling that the guess made at the beginning of the day is relatively blind/random, and then information got revealed about the other possibilities... it's got a Monty Hall flavor to it, is all.
Tobon
Profile Joined March 2011
United States372 Posts
March 22 2012 20:39 GMT
#865
Also: I need to pick up my kids from school today, so I'll be out for awhile about 30 minutes before day end (45 minutes or so from now). If anyone wants me to change my vote, it'll need to be before that.
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21171 Posts
March 22 2012 20:51 GMT
#866
I'm satisfied if you're on Probulous. I'm maybe 85% on my read. Maybe closer to 80% ...close enough for college work though.
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 22 2012 21:12 GMT
#867
I got to sleep and this shit happens again. VE nice fo you to not post your case when Im online, even when I asked for it.

Reading and responding now
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 22 2012 21:20 GMT
#868
On March 23 2012 01:44 VisceraEyes wrote:
As far as I can see, Probulous' reasoning for suspecting me is the following:
  • "bad" case on johnnywup
  • unvote of johnnywup
  • inconsistent actions
  • "loquacious"

The thing about his read though is that it changed over the course of our interactions. Why? My reasoning was never sufficient for him. I never refuted is point about not wanting to kill johnny. My actions, strictly speaking, should still be inconsistent, and he should still be suspicious of me. But he proceeds to unvote after I say that I talk a lot. Before the Jackal flip.


Actually I unvoted you because you admitted your read was bad. You had unvoted before I even got onto the thread so there was no way you were actually intending on getting him lynched. I knew this and the fact you didn't want to admit it made no sense to me. However it doesn't make a case, because the fact was you were not intending for him to get lynched. I mean I argued with you all day and no-one else voted for you. The case just wasn't strong enough so I looked elsewhere.

Yet when pressured about the reasoning for pushing me yesterday as scum, this was Probulous' response.
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2012 07:18 Probulous wrote:
On March 22 2012 02:05 sandroba wrote:
SlOosh is behaving like townie right now and probulous doesn't seem to care too much about this game. I heard from someone that he is normally very good and very active. Day1 he spent the whole day bickering about your unvote on johnny and going around in circles. Also no one (besides you) really tried to keep votes away from jackal and probulous was mia at that time. His argument about slOosh trying to distance himself from jackal with that post right before the lynch does not make sense, because that post actually accomplishes the opposite.


You seem to be forgetting I am on the other side of the world. I am here and posting but everyone else is in the middle of the night. So when I log on in the morning there are pages of stuff to read just before the deadline. Normally the deadlines are later so people are on later and I can push and drive discussion.

You call it bickering, I call it putting VE in his place. He could well be scum, his vote to seal the Jackal lynch is what "confirms" him. He knew his case was shit yet he was actively pushing for the lynch. I even asked him if he intended to lynch Johnny and he made it clear that he did. Then he says he knew he case was weak. Are you telling me that discussion was useless?

The thing that made him town in my mind was his Jackal vote. He could have pulled a Sloosh and said he wasn't sure, hell he thought he was town for most of the first day, but he hammered Jackal and for that he gets a town read.


I explained why I was MIA. That post of Sloosh puts us in a WIFOM situation. Did he do it because he wanted town to reason he wouldn't do it as scum? I think VE's point about how it contradicts his earlier positioning on you is a great point that I missed. I also think it highly unreasonable that anyone would doubt a mason claim from you on day 1. It is way way way too risky a scum move and to assume otherwise is a huge logical fail. I just don't see Sloosh actually believing you could be scum.


Then why the unvote before the flip? What about my defense was the most compelling Probulous? Because the whole paragraph before you explain how I was "confirmed" for you, you spent describing how I'm still suspicious according to your reasoning. If you thought I was scum before Jackal flipped, why did you unvote when you did? Why weren't you voting for me to be lynched with Nemesis?+ Show Spoiler +
I think you were setting yourself up to do whatever you wanted today, according to town sentiment. I think you knew Jackal would flip scum, but just in case sandroba pushed for my lynch today (he's said he's suspicious of me several times this game,) you could jump on-board with no repercussions.


##Unvote: slOosh
##Vote: Probulous


I've explained this already. What is the point of me placing my vote on someone who clearly no-one else thinks is scum in a majority lynch situation? Remember this was half through Day 1 there was plenty of time for other candidates to make themselves known. My read on you was more gut feel than anything, the only evidence I had against you was you faked a read and didnt want to admit it. It put you in my bad books but that isn't a case. Especially since you were not voting for him.

Now if you had jumped off the Jackal wagon I would most certainly have kept my suspicions on you but when you compare

Fake a read and wouldn't admit it

to

Helped nail a scum to the wall

Especially when your suspicions were based on early Day 1 play, it makes sense to change your mind.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
johnnywup
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States3858 Posts
March 22 2012 21:23 GMT
#869
but your suspicions of early day 1 made it well into day 2 and thats a bit silly
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21171 Posts
March 22 2012 21:24 GMT
#870
Not trying to be evasive or anything Probulous - just as you expect leeway from everyone else regarding your active times, I expect leeway from you in regard to forgiving times that I post things.

That being said, everything I said in my case I've already said to you. You just skipped over it or didn't understand it. *shrug*
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 22 2012 21:28 GMT
#871
On March 22 2012 23:23 slOosh wrote:
Based on your reads that both me and TIPD are scum, you are willing to believe all of the following:
1) As a scum team we decided that one of us should bandwagon Jackal and the other one should stay off and draw attention onto themselves
2) As a scum team, now that I am suspicious in D2 we decide that we should do the softest bus ever
3) As a scum team, I was willing to point out that TIPD was lurking on D1 and draw attention to him unnecessarily


1) Yes, that would make sense especially with the vote so close. A no-lynch was a real possibility and YOU tried to push that.

2)Yes, it makes perfect sense for scum to soft-bus each other. That way they can provide some weak reason for being on the bus if they can't stop it. Plus it allows them to distance themselves.

3) See point 2. You cannot say you were pushing TIPD as a case. You mentioned he had disappeared. That was it. More importantly you didn't create a case or vote for him. This was a soft bus in the hope that you would be the one to notice his absence before someone who would push the case.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 22 2012 21:29 GMT
#872
On March 23 2012 06:24 VisceraEyes wrote:
Not trying to be evasive or anything Probulous - just as you expect leeway from everyone else regarding your active times, I expect leeway from you in regard to forgiving times that I post things.

That being said, everything I said in my case I've already said to you. You just skipped over it or didn't understand it. *shrug*


It's just really annoying that I have to deal with this 1 hour before the lynch. I know that isn't your fault but suddenly your case makes sense to everyone when yesterday it didn't but yesterday you didn't feel like explaining to others.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 22 2012 21:30 GMT
#873
On March 23 2012 06:23 johnnywup wrote:
but your suspicions of early day 1 made it well into day 2 and thats a bit silly




No, Day 2 I was pushing slOosh.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
johnnywup
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States3858 Posts
March 22 2012 21:31 GMT
#874
Sorry my bad. I'm mixing things up in my head.. Carry on
johnnywup
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States3858 Posts
March 22 2012 21:32 GMT
#875
Remember kids, always check filters before stating something like a fact!
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21171 Posts
March 22 2012 21:33 GMT
#876
So you're saying that if I'm scum and I make a bad case, all I have to do to absolve myself of suspicion is to admit that my case is bad? That's what you're saying?

You expect me to believe that you thought I was scum with malicious intent and an agenda, and you just took for granted that I'm town because I admitted that my case 20 minutes into the game wasn't strong? That's what you're selling to me?
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 22 2012 21:35 GMT
#877
On March 23 2012 02:21 Snarfs wrote:
Yea... okay. I'm kinda seeing it now.

Another thing that I wish Probulous had time to respond to would be his reasoning for why johnnywup gets the confused noob treatment but Tobon is clearly scum day 1. Stupid timezones.

Then there is the gap between his last statement on day 1 and his case on slOosh, which doesn't make sense with the called into office thing because the last statement on day 1 would have been around 4:30pm his time. I don't like voting people just for reasons such as that because everybody gets busy and that's not a good reason to lynch, but adding it with everything that everyone else is mentioning it seems more suspicious.

I hope this isn't wrong.

##Unvote
##Vote Probulous


I play this game when I am at work, I finish at 5pm. The next time I get on is when I get back into work THE NEXT DAY. This is not a reason to vote for me.

Johnny responded completely differently to Tobon. Johnny replied quickly and openly. He admitted his mistakes and changed his read. This is a townie response.

Tobon told me to fuck off and that he wasn't going to explain himself. This is not a townie response.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 22 2012 21:37 GMT
#878
On March 23 2012 06:33 VisceraEyes wrote:
So you're saying that if I'm scum and I make a bad case, all I have to do to absolve myself of suspicion is to admit that my case is bad? That's what you're saying?

You expect me to believe that you thought I was scum with malicious intent and an agenda, and you just took for granted that I'm town because I admitted that my case 20 minutes into the game wasn't strong? That's what you're selling to me?


If no-one else is even looking at you, how I am going to convince them?

I spent ages trying to make it clear how contradictory you were being and no-one cared. Tell me this would I have been less suspicious if I just tunnelled you are day long and never looked elsewhere?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
johnnywup
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States3858 Posts
March 22 2012 21:37 GMT
#879
Tobon is town to me because of the near modkill situation...however bad of a sitation that was, to me it proved snarfs and tobon's innocence

see


On March 20 2012 03:11 Tobon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 20 2012 03:04 Snarfs wrote:
Sigh, I'm sorry. I'm tired and am rushing things because deadline is in 4 hours. Another reason I'm suspicious of both johnny and Tobon, one which I alluded to earlier when I said that johnny's claim was off, is because they both claimed "Vanilla Town". I'm a "Vanilla Towny". See that? With a 'y' at the end? Why would they have a different title if they're actually townies? It looks like they were trying to match it up with the posts at the beginning of the thread, when that's not what the title that was sent out says.


That's interesting. He's right, the title in my role PM does say "Vanilla Towny" rather than "Town". Is that exact role name public anywhere else? If not, then I may have to reconsider Snarfs....

Snarfs
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada1006 Posts
March 22 2012 21:38 GMT
#880
On March 23 2012 06:35 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 02:21 Snarfs wrote:
Yea... okay. I'm kinda seeing it now.

Another thing that I wish Probulous had time to respond to would be his reasoning for why johnnywup gets the confused noob treatment but Tobon is clearly scum day 1. Stupid timezones.

Then there is the gap between his last statement on day 1 and his case on slOosh, which doesn't make sense with the called into office thing because the last statement on day 1 would have been around 4:30pm his time. I don't like voting people just for reasons such as that because everybody gets busy and that's not a good reason to lynch, but adding it with everything that everyone else is mentioning it seems more suspicious.

I hope this isn't wrong.

##Unvote
##Vote Probulous


I play this game when I am at work, I finish at 5pm. The next time I get on is when I get back into work THE NEXT DAY. This is not a reason to vote for me.

Johnny responded completely differently to Tobon. Johnny replied quickly and openly. He admitted his mistakes and changed his read. This is a townie response.

Tobon told me to fuck off and that he wasn't going to explain himself. This is not a townie response.

I know it's not a reason to vote you... I just don't know what to do... /crawls into corner and cries

##Unvote
##Vote slOosh


I have no idea which one is scum, if either. I'm going to make this closer than it is and let someone else decide.
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