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On April 02 2012 07:54 Nisani201 wrote:
Can someone explain these counts better to me? Aren't there third-party people also?
There might be. But it doesn't help.
I assumed that the great beings of power are alignment bound. It doesn't help to think about thirds...
3-1-1-1 or 2-2-1-1 (even 3-1-2 or 2-2-2) are possible options as well, but they shouldn't bother us...and I strongly believe that it's 3-2-1 or 4-1-1 right now...
off to sleep. good night guys <3
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On April 02 2012 07:27 phagga wrote:
Uh, JJ, the Deadline is in 24 hours...
also: I don't want to calculate too much, but: If we are at 3-2-1, and we kill mafia, that makes 3-1-1. Then there are 2 nightkills, which leave us at 1-1-1, which is nigh unwinnable. However, if we go from 3-2-1 to 3-2-0 and then 2-2-, we can win with an item of Nisani. HOWEVER, that assumes that there is still a cell member left to kill. This is why I stick to Foolishness.
Maverick: You're right, it is possible that there is only one sleeper cell or one mafia left, as we do no know the flips of night one nor the size of the mafia group. What JJ and I are picturing here are the worst case scenarios.
So you want to know my role?
If you think it will make you a scum target- then no... but I'm just pointing out a trend..
@JJ- Sorry, didn't see/remember the vig thing...
As for the JJ switch to Mementoss- though I appreciate being off your hit list... I want to give it a little more background...
In retrospect- I suppose it is possible that a computer terminal could be a negative.. per Portal 2 theme... I don't want to bandwagon and jump on the Mementoss train.. This is speculation however, and I realize it is far from helpful...
I'm heading to bed and will see what I can dig up in the AM.. I also thought the lynch was tonight as well, so I guess its good I have more time to check things out...
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Looked through Nisanis Filter. His early game up to the Bluelightz lynch was really questionable and still looks scummy to me. However, he has stepped up his game quite a bit. I also liked how he fought to get off the lynch list once he was pressured, when I read those posts now, I rather think he was genuine about being town.
Nisani lynch candidates:
- Dirk: He wanted a dirk lynch, who was mafia. Dirk voted Nisani and wanted to kill him twice (voted once). Their interaction makes me think they are not of the same alignement.
- Bluelightz: His argumentation for voting bluelightz was lacking. bandwagon to avoid being suspected? However, he switched to bluelighz from dirk, who were both mafia. Why would he bus bluelightz (and risk getting blamed for it) if he could just leave is vote on dirk, who is scum too? Scum normally votes on other scum to get some town cred, and he could have gotten that by voting Dirk as well. Therefore, this behaviour barely makes any sense if he is mafia.
- ghost: He pushed him at a time when several people were pushing him.
- kenpachi: at a time when everyone was still thinking he was scum/3rd.
He also gave the puppet strings to Jayjay, who was generally considered town at that point. This only makes sense scumwise if they are both mafia, which I doubt.
I therefore conclude that Nisani201 is probably not mafia, and I will not vote him.
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Alright, I am going to post my general thoughts right now. From my perspective I am town, I also think JJ is town because of how he has consistently been scum-hunting/being pressuring actively, I think foolishness is not mafia because of the way he was brought back to life, leaning town, but there is a possibility he is cell.
That leaves, Nisani, Maverick, and Phagga.
Nisani: Currently reading Null for me. As stated before many times, Role=! alignment. People are saying this towards me, along with well if he is town wouldn't he have been night killed already? The same exact case could be made against Nisani. Except stronger because he has a more powerful power. His colour radiator turned out great for town, but looked weird how it paper (mafia) killed hassy to obtain it, and it was only by luck Kita got it through night shot.
Then the scatter shot was created wrong, and given to foolishness (who seems okay in my books). I don't think it was used last night, or did not go off judging there was no 2 flavours the same.
Then the one-shot detective was invented and given to Kenpachi. This seems reasonable as he was confirmed town, from the colour radiator. However, since he was confirmed town he coulda easily been a target of Cell/mafia. Wasting the item. Now kenpachi wins and is ejected with his item. Wasting the item. There was no way anyone coulda guessed this so I am not putting Nisani at fault.
In conclusion it seems that Nisani is listening to the towns suggestions and is trying to work with the town. However, some questionable mistakes make him seem not completely okay. Last 2 items have effectively done nothing, and the colour radiator in the hands of mafia coulda really shook the town in the wrong direction luckily it went to kita.
Maverick:
Note his filter is very short, (barely longer than mine despite me missing a lot of the start) Alot of his filter is based on asking who has what item, and claiming roles, and trying to figure out roles, rather than scum-hunt or even pressure. Ocassional posts his opinion on people but he is never the first on this and usually just takes the general idea others have given. Consistently tries to confirm his night actions (his tracking item/giving me the core) to show hes not lieing, in a desperate attempt to prove his innocence. Along with his general lurkiness this just feels really scummy to me.
Voted GlaDos. Which is not very telling as a lot of people voted for Glados. I just want to mention that town was in a seemingly good position. Voting GladoS imo, seems risky and a desperation move as noone knew what it did, and since the number of scum is probably really low, a risky action could bring them back in the game. Which getting rid of kenpachi and lowering the town number really gave scum a better chance now.
On April 01 2012 11:56 Maverick32x wrote:
Phagga- No good read on this guy.. makes list.. bandwagons.... not a whole lot of 'pro-town' going on there...
If it were up to me to vote right this second.. I'd go with Phagga.
His reasoning for voting on phagga is because he doesn't have a good read, and he makes lists and bandwagons. Problem is this is right after Mavericks list, oh and also, maverick has been bandwagoning his votes all game.
Maverick is the last scared scum.
Phagga:
Reason he seems suspicious is because he puts a case on me, that could easily be said about Nisani as well, yet he doesn't say it about Nisani. Says Nisani seems pretty town to him. Also, bases me on not giving my reads. Well recently I have trying to give my reads/opinions on whatever I think/ lynch candidates. Keep in mind I was a replacement 60 pages in. That is more I feel you could say about Maverick who has been here all game. I would re-look at his filter.
He makes a good point that the gun might not have been used last night. (coulda been a dud too) And that foolishness could be a cell trying for an insta-win with the gun. This could just be a ploy to get the attention of cell off his own back as well. Although, he generally seems to have the same thoughts as me with what I am thinking about certain townies.
Leaning cell, or town. At this point I think cell is either him or foolishness.
However, I think is more important to kill off the mafia, as we are not even sure if sleeper has KP left.
##Vote: Maverick32x
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JayJay54: He defends me, so he must be town. End of analysis.
 Seriously, I saw JayJay54 as town pretty early in the game (I gave him my Lemon D1/N1 which I received upon the start of the game). I did grow a bit cautious with him over time, and so here is a short analysis on his way too long filter (seriously, 14 pages? That's roughly 8.2% of all posts!)
His stances on some other people, and mind you, these are not all he commented on:
- Sinani: Already pointed him out D1, shot him N1, Derped the kill. Was completely transparent about it.
- Bluelightz: suspected him early (towards end of D1), calls him out again D2, calls him a reasonable Target D2.
- Blubbdavid: suppected him early (towards end of D1), mentiones him a second time 50 min later. Some banter between the two. He is unsure D2. After the colour radiator, he is his second target.
- Kenpachi: says he is useless regardless of alignement on D1. wants to lynch him last of the colour radiator group.
- Nisani: says he underperforms on D2, calls him a reasonable Target D2. Attacks him hard D3 and votes him, too. When he voted him, Nisani led the vote with 3 votes.
- Mr. Wiggles: Disagrees with the case from Kita, says he could me more active though. Calls him scary (N3 I think?), lynches him D4 as the first of the colour radiator group.
- Adam: accuses him of not being active enough as in other games, calls him a reasonable Target D2.
- ghost_403: says his posts are fluff D2.
- Paperscraps: Soft defends him when Kita attacks him.
- Dirk: Defended Dirk D1 because he thought he brought up a good point. Changes his view on him N1 after Dirk attacks Grack for no reason, but still does not want to lynch him D2, because he got masoned by him. Softdefends him several times D2 & D3 because of his ability. Accuses him somewhere around N3 of being third, clearly states that he doubts Dirk is cell or mafia. He repeats this on D4. After the colour radiator has been used he refuses to lynch Dirk on D4 (he decides lynch D4) because he wants to kill cell and he thinks that Dirk is scum. On D5 he suddenly changes his mind and says that Dirk is probably cell, not scum. He then proposes blubbdavid as lynch target who he thinks "has the higher chance to belong to the actual scum team and is the better choice."
What really stands out is his that he defended Dirk very long and Paperscraps a bit as well. However, He voted Bluelightz when he was at 5 votes and therefore far from being a safe lynch.
He trusted Hassy very fast. He had some back and forth with kita, but nothing wild really. Unlike others, he stated his reads on a lot of people. His argumentation looks rather pro-town, and the activity is through the roof which is very unusual for scum. His reads, however, were quite off most of the time. The whole "Dirk" story makes me cautios, I don't like how he treated that. Nevertheless, I don't think he is scum, and there is for sure at least one better target than him. Therefore, I do not want to lynch him today.
Jayjay, what really interests me: You already half-claimed your role, may we know what your role name is?
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Mementoss: Not sure what your playing at concerning my stance on you and Nisani, but I did write later here that the same thing concerning the power role still being alive applies to Nisani as well.
Completely forgot, wanted to change my vote:
I don't think that the sleeper cell is (currently?) a threat, so my vote goes to Mementoss.
##Unvote: Foolishness
##Vote: Mementoss
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Foolishness, where are you? It's been over 36 hours since you last posted!
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Yes sorry, I did not mean to be gone for so long.
Truth be told, I got a little scared when I was wrong
about Nisani being red
since he didn't turn up dead.
But I didn't lie, I shot him last night in the hopes he'd be gone.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
But after I've had plenty of time to think and rest
I still say Nisani is not town, we should put him to the test.
Ask, "what is his intention?
Would he really make that invention?
When instead he could be handing out bulletproof vests?"
Last night my shot on him didn't go through
but I still stand by that he is not blue!
From this we can surely tell
he's the last of the sleeper cell.
Pretty soon, to him we'll need to say adieu!
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
I've gone through and looked at what everyone has said.
I did this days ago, to try to stay ahead.
Mementoss is the first one
we must shoot with a gun.
The Chezinu party, is Maverick not the head?
##Vote: Mementoss
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@Foolishness
Yes, I'm the last one of the Chezinu party.
As for who you shot.. can you tell us who it was?
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Maverick: He wrote it was Nisani and Dirk he shot.
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^^Wouldn't foolishness be on fire if he shot Dirk and Nisani.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
The Chezinu party in that one game, many people hated it
I should know, I was the person who created it.
Scum we pretended to be
but town we all were indeed!
A powerful but silly plan, many people rated it.
So I think for now we can label Maverick as green.
I've read through his filter a few times, it looks clean.
He's legitimately concerned
about which people we burn.
Is he deceiving us? I don't think he would be that mean.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
I claimed who I shot at the end of night not to cause suspense
but because I knew Nisani is not town, it only makes sense.
I am not on fire
nor am I a liar.
These questions have all been answered, but I take no offense.
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Mementoss: According to this post it is a bit unclear. I read it that people only die if they visit the person when he/she is being ignited, not in the next night when they die. But actually, should you not know this as you successfully protected Dirk from being killed by Kitas flames the first time?
I find it quite strange that YOU are asking this question...
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I appreciate your vote of confidence, thank you foolishness.
I don't think he would lit on fire Mementoss since he didn't visit.. he shot...
So let me get this straight though.. the gun only shoots if they are the same alignment.... so that would mean that Nisani is NOT scum... since the shots would of gone through if he shot Dirk and Nisani?
That of course doesn't rule out sleeper cell..
What is making everyone think Mementoss as our vote? I'm not really seeing it...is it the relatively strong role yet he is still alive?
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What? This was before Kita's role was revealed. As far as I knew at the time I protected Dirk from a regular vig shot.
I feel right now that I am getting targeted for being bad town, rather than being scummy. The votes are all easily floating to me, as the remaining scum (most likely a mafia and a sleeper) would rather not use a night KP on me, when they can just bandwagon me out on the lynch. Most people aren't even explaining how I am more suspicious than anyone else that should be on the radar. There just like Mementoss? Seems like a decent lynch tonight.
Probably looking to get rid of me now than ever, since the last 2 nights Nisanis haven't worked/couldn't be used, I am now more favourable to the town. Also I have just come into possession with new cores (equipped last night as action), Factual and Intelligence. Which just by name seem a lot more powerful than the medic/track I had before (haven't used very successfully). So if I die, I will most likely be the towns last blue, and it will be 3-1-1. If sleeper has KP left this game could be over after the night cycle.
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On April 02 2012 23:59 Mementoss wrote:
What? This was before Kita's role was revealed. As far as I knew at the time I protected Dirk from a regular vig shot.
That does not change the fact that you protected him while he was burning, so with that knowledge now you could have known that Foolishness would not be harmed by shooting him.
On April 02 2012 23:59 Mementoss wrote:
I feel right now that I am getting targeted for being bad town, rather than being scummy. The votes are all easily floating to me, as the remaining scum (most likely a mafia and a sleeper) would rather not use a night KP on me, when they can just bandwagon me out on the lynch. Most people aren't even explaining how I am more suspicious than anyone else that should be on the radar. There just like Mementoss? Seems like a decent lynch tonight.
In short: Foolishness is not Mafia according to his previous actions. He might be sleeper cell, but they did not kill anyone last night as it seems.
Maverick is of House Chezinou and therefore probably town aligned, confirmed by MidnightGladius who flipped town.
Nisani is probably not Mafia according to his previous actions. He might be sleeper cell, but yadda yadda see Foolishness.
JayJay looks way too townish. He could be Mafia, but I doubt it.
That leaves you, and there is not much that really screams "TOWN" to me. So, yeah, you're my choice.
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EPT
