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Storm Mafia - Page 2

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syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 21 2012 20:22 GMT
#354
Oh that was to chaoser, carry on
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 21 2012 20:30 GMT
#357
I'm saying I do not want to have to guess whether people are sarcastic/trolling/whatever. Hiding behind such things is scum territory and just makes things harder for town. I did not assume sarcasm as it made no sense and certainly did not help you convey a point.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 06:23 GMT
#488
I doubt redff would have fake claimed tracker, so that likely really is his role but of course he could still be of any alignment. However the lack of resistance to his lynch, the early bandwagon, his relatively care free playstyle are indicative of him not being scum. It still seems to me the evidence pointing towards him not being mafia is stronger than the evidence pointing towards that.

Only post from BC in which he votes for redff and doesn't even call him scum, just someone who isn't creating "a pro town environment". I don't personally think that is redff's speciality as town, so it's basically a meaningless point. Given BC's activity and posting hours it doesn't look like he'll be convincing me that he is town before the deadline.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 06:41 GMT
#489
It is very unlikely for the whole scum team to bus a team mate on day 1 in a closed 14-4 setup (I'm assuming no third parties) without even trying to start alternate wagons. They aren't even gaining any town cred in doing so given how quickly and early people jumped on it and the fact pretty much everyone is open to lynching him. I suppose it's possible the rnged team is very weak, but that is unlikely and thus I'm going with my assumption.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 07:33 GMT
#491
It's not without a question; I've a quite a few town reads and out of the remaining people BC has looked worst, but despite him personally likely not being around to convince me, I will look into others today.

Also, I think that if there is a scum tracker, there is likely a town tracker as well and thus if there is another tracker out there, it might be worthwhile to counter claim redff at some point today. Tracker is a useful role, but not essential and certainly worth outing if it almost guarantees a scum lynch on day 1. Since I believe redff really is a tracker rather than just scum fake claiming, no counter claim would be relatively strong evidence of him being a town aligned tracker. Tracker is also a role that isn't easy to use, so it makes sense to be present in this setup, considering that this is supposedly a challenging one.

Redff while your outburst feels genuine, you should keep posting today.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 07:45 GMT
#494
On February 22 2012 16:40 VisceraEyes wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 22 2012 16:33 syllogism wrote:
It's not without a question; I've a quite a few town reads and out of the remaining people BC has looked worst, but despite him personally likely not being around to convince me, I will look into others today.

Also, I think that if there is a scum tracker, there is likely a town tracker as well and thus if there is another tracker out there, it might be worthwhile to counter claim redff at some point today. Tracker is a useful role, but not essential and certainly worth outing if it almost guarantees a scum lynch on day 1. Since I believe redff really is a tracker rather than just scum fake claiming, no counter claim would be relatively strong evidence of him being a town aligned tracker. Tracker is also a role that isn't easy to use, so it makes sense to be present in this setup, considering that this is supposedly a challenging one.

Redff while your outburst feels genuine, you should keep posting today.


Wait, so you think that if redFF is scum, you still believe his claim? Why would scum volunteer information to town like that?

No, I'm saying that I believe redff is a tracker. I also believe that if there is a scum tracker, there is also a town tracker. Thus, if redff is scum, there is a town tracker out there who can counterclaim. If there is no counter claim, I believe redff is town purely based on that fact. It's not rock solid, but it is reasonable.

Aside that, I personally think redff is town based on other evidence, but in case I'm wrong my suggestion helps. Further, if there is no counter claim and others find my logic reasonable, this would prevent us from lynching our tracker.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 07:47 GMT
#496
On February 22 2012 16:42 VisceraEyes wrote:
That was dangerously close to role-fishing syllo - the existance of one town-tracker doesn't preclude a second town-tracker. Am I missing something?

You are right, that is the possible weak point in the plan. I do not think that it is likely that there are two town aligned trackers, however. It's a setup with only 18 players and knowing palmar/sandroba, I don't think they would have opted to include two identical and relatively uninteresting blue roles.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 07:49 GMT
#497
On February 22 2012 16:46 Dirkzor wrote:
I find it highly unlikely that RedFF is scum. When reading through the thread I had the feeling that the wagon was forming way to fast (just before VE/BH mentioned it in the thread). At the same time we can't just keep RedFF around because he claimed a blue role. Might be an idea to keep alive until day 2 so people with nightactions can do whatever they think with him (vig or dt maybe?)

WBG apparently wants to de-friend everyone in the game and is doing a good job so far.

Blazinghand is being to quite this game and his post are much shorter then they usually are. I know he have wanted to post less then he did his first games but his post usually don't lack this much substance. I would say BH is a good lynch candidate. I haven't read his filter in detail but I will later. Also he haven't used thw word "hustle" at all this game - maybe he is the one doing the hustling?

And yes I still think chaoser is a bit scummy, Jitsu. (Should have been clear when I said he was my lynch target)

You are not helping yourself here by stating that you think it's highly unlikely that redff is scum and then propose vigging a blue role.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 08:52 GMT
#504
On February 22 2012 16:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 22 2012 16:33 syllogism wrote:
It's not without a question; I've a quite a few town reads and out of the remaining people BC has looked worst, but despite him personally likely not being around to convince me, I will look into others today.

Also, I think that if there is a scum tracker, there is likely a town tracker as well and thus if there is another tracker out there, it might be worthwhile to counter claim redff at some point today. Tracker is a useful role, but not essential and certainly worth outing if it almost guarantees a scum lynch on day 1. Since I believe redff really is a tracker rather than just scum fake claiming, no counter claim would be relatively strong evidence of him being a town aligned tracker. Tracker is also a role that isn't easy to use, so it makes sense to be present in this setup, considering that this is supposedly a challenging one.

Redff while your outburst feels genuine, you should keep posting today.

My issue is you never tackled the complexity that the claim itself brings into the game. He is just going to sit there and be confusing. He hasn't really done anything productive and has in fact looked scummy which multiple people have seen.

I explained it a bit in an earlier post, this helps scum unilaterally if RedFF continues to live and dismissing him as being unlikely to do the claim himself ignores the fact that players can learn and that he also has 3 other team mates.

Either
A. RedFF is a tracker. Scum RB's him, we can never prove his alignment or that a RB actually exists (Even if most set ups do have RBers.)

B. RedFF is scum and faked tracker. RedFF can claim RB while the mafia either does not have a RB, or does a RB + hit strategy to hide that RedFF is lying while still strategically using a roleblock. Me and GM employed this strategy in closed casket but for a different purpose, its fairly common. RedFF can claim to watch someone and see them do nothing, the only way to prove him lying is to have that player counterclaim that they indeed performed an action, thus outing a blue.

Either way we have no way to prove RedFF's claim and he won't die until WE kill him because scum isn't going to do it for us when hes a walking pile of wifom.

While he has posted some suspicious things, overall I do not think his play is indicative of him being mafia. Hence leaving him alive is fine regardless of his blue claim. We do not have to "prove" his alignment based on role information. Thus if scum choose to leave him alive and RB him, this is fine to me. I do not think he has been "confusing" and someone appearing "confusing" is ultimately a fault of the person observing him rather the person being observed. Someone being confusing isn't a good reason for a lynch.

Also, I noticed that redff says something about getting a list of people who his target visited, which further reinforces the point that he is a tracker as the way he says it sounds genuine. For the reasons stated earlier, in the absence of a counter claim it is much more likely that he is a town aligned tracker.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 12:17 GMT
#508
On February 22 2012 20:00 Tyrran wrote:
Okay so here is my final point of view on the redFF case:

I wanst sold on his lynch until his claim. But this claim is so bad that it got me thinking that he really is scum. As I stated, before, and as multiple people stated several time in the thread, town gains nothing from this claim. You've got to wonder : What does redFF gain by claiming day 1 if he is town ? Maybe he'll avoid the lynch. But then how is he going to avoid mafia KP/Roleblock ? How does he expect to be useful later on ? As town, it doesnt really make sense to claim.

He then spends 3 post explaining that it would be a bad idea to lynch him now that he has claimed :

Show nested quote +
On February 22 2012 07:14 redFF wrote:
inb4 lying about claim, doesn't matter, its fairly easy to confirm a tracker, and you don't lynch a claimed blue day 1, especially a strong one like tracker.


Show nested quote +
On February 22 2012 07:19 redFF wrote:
Yeah usually its not good to lynch a claimed blue day 1. If scum it forces them to produce results and stick to a claim and later in the game questions are raised as to why they are not dead yet. So yeah you don't lynch claimed blues day 1. Obviously this isn't in line with wbg's school of mafia thought though.

Yes that's exactly what i expect.


Show nested quote +
On February 22 2012 07:21 redFF wrote:
If pretty much all the major town voices are intent on wagoning me then claiming at 24 hours in and giving us another 24 hours to set up a lynch seems like a pretty good time.

If i claimed with 12 hours left the wagon might have gotten too big and people may have not gotten back in time to unvote.


All this seems weird to me. His defence seems to be focused around "Dont Lynch Me plzplzplz " instead of " I can still be usefull" and aroud " look I'm not scum" instead of "look I'm town". This makes me think he is scum.

I'll be here until deadline, so my wote can still change if he somehow manage to convince me that he is not scum. But ragequitting makes me think that wont be the case.

##Vote redFF

Is this the amount of effort you intend to put into this game as well or did you actually roll scuml? Just going to sheep bad wagons and not evaluate all the evidence? Have you read my thoughts on redff? Don't you find it weird that there is almost no resistance at all to the wagon? Your point about him claiming early isn't very good as redff gave a reasonable explanation for the claim and if he was scum, he could have fake claimed a better role anyway. It was likely that he was going to be forced to claim anyway at some point and claiming a bit earlier gives us time to discuss what we think about it. As his relatively early claim makes sense from point scum and town perspective and it's not really possible to determine which is more likely, it's a null tell. He can still be useful by being alive, tying roleblocker or even by taking a bullet. A tracker is not a DT in terms of usefulness.

I may be wrong about redff and that's always the possibility in mafia, but the evidence suggests otherwise and as such you should be voting for someone else, preferably BC.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 12:22 GMT
#509
Dirkzor I actually somewhat agree. Besides what you stated, I'm also wondering about Zephirdd's motives when posting those palmar PMs. Due to him being drunk and his play style sometimes being a bit erratic I probably shouldn't read too much into it, but the only reasonable explanation for quoting those PMs is to gain town cred by pointing to the fact that he asked the host questions even before the game began.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 12:34 GMT
#510
Risk.nuke you've posted absolutely nothing so far. Why did you join this game again? Palmar can you start force replacing out people who aren't even playing
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 12:59 GMT
#514
As I noted earlier, I do not think it's likely that the setup has a scum tracker but no town tracker. Therefore the town tracker can just counter claim him, but I doubt that's going to happen as it's more likely that he is our town tracker. These are assumptions, but reasonable and likely ones. Anyway, I don't think he is town because of his claim, but due to other aforementioned evidence and rationale.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 14:42 GMT
#521
On February 22 2012 23:34 Jackal58 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 22 2012 21:59 syllogism wrote:
As I noted earlier, I do not think it's likely that the setup has a scum tracker but no town tracker. Therefore the town tracker can just counter claim him, but I doubt that's going to happen as it's more likely that he is our town tracker. These are assumptions, but reasonable and likely ones. Anyway, I don't think he is town because of his claim, but due to other aforementioned evidence and rationale.

What if there are 2 separate scum factions Syllo? Palmar states that multiple factions are a possibility in the OP.
I am not convinced red is town. A townie redFF would never call me a good scum hunter. He has made a point of telling me and others how much I suck at this game in the past. I can't reconcile this-
Show nested quote +
On February 22 2012 07:09 redFF wrote:what, jackal said he thought toad was scum, i think jackal is a good scumhunter, i have similar thoughts, i post why i think toad is scum, jackal says he never thought toad was scum, i call him a wily old fox.
- with a townie redFF.

OP says there are 4 mafia, so that's not a possibility
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 15:59 GMT
#522
On February 22 2012 22:22 Toadesstern wrote:
ok I'm back here for half an hour. Still reading everything and I'm going to vote redFF for now.
I'm not sure yet we really should lynch him simply because I doubt that mafia would be so vocal so early on. He was basicly BEGGING to get heat for that policy lynch. But then again I do the same as mafia and like to take heat because I think I can take it. All I've read from redFF so far indicates that he thinks very highly about himself so it's a possibility although it's totally wifom (in both directions).

I think chaosers answeres to my case were decent and he's no longer my scumread #1 because of that.
I am not going to lynch BC based on that because I got a different conclusion and I don't want to lynch into vets on d1. D1 is the hardest lynch because we have so little information and yet you want to straight away lynch BC?
So it's really only redFF I'm left with right now or a rnd-lurker, but most people here are actually talking.

Will be back in something like 3 hours I hope. Depending on my train and the shity internet my parents got...
And I'll read this all on train.

I'm not liking you so far in this game. This post doesn't read like what I would expect from you and I'm not sure how exactly you determine whether someone is a "vet" or not and as such "untouchable" on d1. Why were you fine with lynching Chaoser but not fine with lynching BC? You seem unsure about redff but still want to lynch him over everyone else. Is this correct? What do you think about his tracker claim and what I've said about it?
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 16:22 GMT
#525
Are you going to post any content at all blazinghand? Why do you think dirkzor is "butthurt" when you haven't even mentioned him before?
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 16:25 GMT
#527
What about the possibility that they are scum? Not considering that?
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 17:12 GMT
#537
No, stop saying we have to lynch someone at some point, that is not true unless he is scum. It is also not true that "no matter what" red is going to tell us it not going to improve the situation as he could for instance give us a "red" result, even if that is unlikely as scum most likely have a roleblocker. Why are you so against lynching BC? Did his reads in L impress you or where did you get the idea? Have his contributions impressed here so far?
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 17:23 GMT
#542
Wait the lynch is in like 4h 40 minutes

Kitaman don't you care who gets lynched? Why is your focus on the game with an actual deadline?
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
February 22 2012 17:24 GMT
#543
Err NOT on the game*
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