EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII
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jaj22
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jaj22
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jaj22
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This is the first full game I've played. I replaced into Election Mafia as scum: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291720&user=52329 And TL Mafia L as vanilla town: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=253716&user=52329 Feel free to check out my meta. I don't know a good way of starting discussion on day 1, so here's some obligatory lurker-lynch stuff. I hate lurkers. Don't be a lurker. Other than the point that lurking is thoroughly anti-town, why bother playing the game if you're not going to post? Do I want to lynch lurkers on day 1? At a gut level, absolutely. It's not necessarily optimal though. If we have someone who's both active and scummy, lynching them is a better choice. However, that's much more likely if we don't let people lurk, so it's important to maintain a real threat. | ||
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jaj22
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jaj22
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@Steveling: I see you lynched Palmar on your first day. Not the greatest start to a mafia career. Fortunately we don't have any awesome scumhunting veterans in this game. Or mayors. | ||
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jaj22
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Ok, I'm going to explain why you're acquiring suspicion, just in case you haven't figured it. Calling someone out is almost universally a pro-town action. Therefore your accusation is baseless. If you're town, please post some better-justified opinions as soon as possible. If you're scum, carry on as you are. Gumshoe: I'd dismiss Gumshoe as newbie-with-a-plan except for these points: 1. There was a rush of unclaimed mafia votes immediately after he posted, suggesting possible synchronised collusion. 2. He didn't vote town himself, at least not within 20 minutes of posting. Considering the wording of the post, that's stunningly hypocritical. On the other hand he's very active, so if he's scum he'll probably dig himself a deeper hole soon enough. EchelonTee vs SlOosh: Nothing too surprising here. EchelonTee posting like he just solo'd a game as scum (re: Normal Mini Mafia), SlOosh still a bit prone to confirmation bias. They're both looking ok to me so far. Zelblade: Read your own post, then follow your own advice. This game takes what, 10 minutes to read so far? Accuse someone. Anyone. We're not looking for 50 line cases here. This goes for Trackd00r too, although this is his first game so I'm going to be nicer to him. Steveling: Ok, it's partly my fault that you've made four posts with zero suspicions, but this cannot go on  trackd00r So you've been keeping an eye on the players from Newbie Mini III. What do you think of them so far? | ||
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If you really are town, you're lucky you didn't get bandwagoned within the first few hours of the game. While you're here, what do you think of MidnightGladius? | ||
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On February 18 2012 01:22 blae000 wrote: Either way, to tell who is lying or not from a click in the poll isnt the best way to go. I'm not sure you're reading this properly. After being caught out, Gumshoe has admitted to substantial dishonesty through his early posts, including one that he doublespaced for EchelonTee. If what you're looking for is liars, we have a confirmed one already. The only reason I haven't voted him is that players who make this sort of ridiculous and dishonest plan in newbie games have a nasty habit of flipping town. | ||
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On February 18 2012 06:14 Steveling wrote: Well, I thought we were 4 hours from night. With our current cases, I just thought that we were gonna lose a towny. That doesn't make sense. When you lynch lurkers, you naturally have very little idea whether they're town or mafia, because they don't post enough to tell. Lynching lurkers makes more sense the less information you have on active players, hence a lurker lynch would be a relatively strong choice if the day was ending in a couple of hours time. Essentially, you lynch lurkers because your cases suck. Also that vague OMGUS at Gumshoe and your general lack of reads are rather worrying. Make up your mind on the lurker lynch thing and post some reads please. | ||
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jaj22
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MannerKiss, Zelblade, TKHawkins and EchelonTee haven't shown up yet today. That's going to make it tough to get a majority lynch if they keep the same hours tomorrow. The first three of those have lurked hardcore so far and really need to post. DimmuKlok hasn't posted since the case against him, which is increasingly scummy behaviour. I'd recommend that he posts some reads (not MannerKiss/Gumshoe: too easy) rather than defending it directly, but posting with substance is essential. | ||
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jaj22
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On February 18 2012 08:14 gumshoe wrote: Hes hostile very hostile, but doesn't seem like mafia. I just don't like day 1, because I can't read anyone who doesn't have a decent post count. That's why I'm concentrating on trying to make people post better. If I'm sounding hostile I should correct that because it's likely to put people off posting. All these things can be interpreted as good mafia play though. What really seals the deal for me in thinking hes town is his efforts to communicate with other mafia semish veterans. Actually I thought I was mostly ignoring them because they had a decent post output and hadn't done anything daft My one complaint is that jaj keeps virtually all his findings to himself so far. I expect a case out of him at least before vote just because It seems almost certain that he's picking up a lot on almost everyone here. Nah, there's no-one that I really want to lynch yet. Hopefully that'll change as the post count increases. | ||
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jaj22
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MidnightGladius: 1. Starts off with a number of completely useless posts on setup. Didn't even do the probability. 2. Makes the usual post on ET vs Sloosh and Gumshoe's poll. Yeah, so did everyone else. 3. Votes the easy target (MannerKiss) with an elaborate lurker-lynch reasoning. 4. Votes the easy target (Gumshoe) because he spams and sucks at statistics. That's it. Low post count apart from the setup filler. No interest in anyone in except the easy targets, and contributing next to nothing to town as a result. I don't think he posted much more in Newbie Mini III, but he had the excuse of being blue there, and it was a slower game (too damn slow). He should know better. Probably much too early to be putting people in bold red, but I'm bored waiting for all the lurkers to post. | ||
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On February 18 2012 09:45 MidnightGladius wrote: You're not even going to vote for me? Hell, I had an internal debate about the bold red, but if it makes you feel any better: ##Vote MidnightGladius | ||
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On February 18 2012 09:54 EchelonTee wrote: I love the activity though, so refreshing So much for the activity. Neither DimmuKlok's defence nor Steveling's reads have shown up. MannerKiss produced one post with town reads and the obvious target. TKHawkins and Zelblade haven't shown up at all. MidnightGladius apparently thinks that telling people they make no sense is a valid defence. C'mon guys, you can't all be scum. I'm off to bed. Hoping that someone pulls an awesome town-leader performance overnight and gets a proper vote going, because it's going to be seriously tough to get a majority on scum at this rate. | ||
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On February 18 2012 15:45 DoYouHas wrote: I dislike that no one directly addressed my defense of gumshoe, with the exception of ET. I didn't respond to it because I agree with it. I don't really like defending people before they need it, although in this case that may have been an error. I'll go a bit further than your defence: If Gumshoe is scum, he's such a rare and special species of scum that I want to put him in a cage and charge people to visit. The closest thing I've seen is Sheth's spammy scum style, but Gumshoe is a tier or two above that. It's much more likely that he's an over-enthusiastic townie. Also I see a lot of new players are suspicious of ET because he's playing flashy and aggressive. These are not common scum traits: Flashy play makes you the centre of attention, which scum want to avoid. Aggression is normally strongly pro-town - we're not here to be nice to each other. Every time a player makes an accusation, that's something you can use later to find scum by association. The players you should look out for are those who just do the easy things. I'll repeat, as it's important: FLASHY AND AGGRESSIVE PLAY IS NOT SCUMMY. ET is a good enough scum player that he can maybe pull off this style, but it's more likely that he's just town on a victory high. | ||
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On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote: jaj Says flashy and aggressive play are not scummy when talking about Ech. But that's also how he is playing. Convenient eh? Would like more of an explanation about why Midnight in particular deserves a pressure vote, when there are so many others that could have used that too. 1. If you don't believe me on that point, you can PM Palmar and ask him. Or you can just read Palmar's town play. 2. That's not a pressure vote. I think he's scum. You can tell because I wrote a case on him with his name in bold red text. While his contribution to town is no lower than a lot of other players, he's the one who should know better. I'll be writing another post covering his play since my case shortly. | ||
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On February 19 2012 04:08 MidnightGladius wrote: The flaw here is that as soon as we say that "behavior A is scummy," and that "behavior B is not scummy," there is nothing to prevent the mafia from taking your cue and thus avoiding town suspicion. As you seem to know what you're talking about with regard to statistics, you have to admit that P(aggression|scum) is always non-zero. You're missing the point, possibly deliberately. People are using ET's style as the primary reason that he's scum, which is invalid unless P(aggression|scum) is much greater than 27%, which my experience suggests is not remotely true. If people want to argue that ET is scum, they should use valid reasoning. I'm much more worried about EchelonTee, considering that he came back and still hasn't followed through on his original promise to make a case on me. He referred to your case instead of providing reasoning of his own, and then told me to "respond or die." Right. Personally, I think he's waiting for someone else to take the hint and push first, much as he prompted you. His behavior lacks accountability to the town and to himself, and that's far more damning to me than any "flashy or aggressive play" heuristic. This is a valid reason. Unfortunately, it's also a very common thing for flashy and aggressive town players to do, so if that's all you have, it's not a good enough reason to lynch. If you really think I'm scum, then vote for me. Actually vote for me, using the proper format so that it will be counted correctly Zbot doesn't need the colon. My vote counted. Anyway, I'm having a crisis of confidence so I'm going to eat something and then re-read. | ||
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On February 19 2012 04:50 Mattchew wrote: Hey guys... I have read a little but am about to go to Atlantic City for the night. I read through the top 3's filters (ET Dimmukok and Midnight) and I think that Midnight should be the lynch today. ##vote: MidnightGladius Way to make me hate my case, man  | ||
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Sloosh and DoYouHas: I think you're expecting too much from each other. When obsing Student Mafia, I had about seven strong town reads at the end of day 1. When obsing NMM3, I had zero. Fundamentally, I don't think you do a great job of looking townie in the early game, and you're both finally picking up on that. I also don't think either of you are a good lynch today. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13536549 | ||
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On February 19 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote: MidnightGladius played totally weird day 1 when he was vig. I can understand the conclusions he came to, and maybe his difference in play is attributable to him not being a vig this time around. His conclusions certainly make sense, but they're extremely safe and add nothing that everyone else wasn't aware of. MannerKiss trollposted and then lurked. Gumshoe made daft plots, spammed and posted crap statistics. The safeness of the conclusions clashes badly with the speed of the voting. He knows that voting early looks townie, but he makes votes that no-one can really dispute, even if the players in question eventually flipped green. His (weak) case against ET has been backed up in force by a number of similarly terrible cases from posters who did next to nothing before. Looks like the scum team coming out of the woodwork to back up their most experienced player. {QUOTE] @Jaj, I don't think I am expecting too much. Nowhere in Day 1 of NMMIII does he consider a no lynch nor does he treat his vote with such nonchalance.[/QUOTE] Yeah, I'm disappointed about that. On the other hand I'm not sure what I'd do if I was leaving three hours before the lynch and I didn't want to lynch any of the main candidates. It's possible that he really thinks you're a much better lynch than ET, DimmuKlok or Midnight, though I have no idea why in the case of the last two. | ||
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jaj22
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DimmuKlok is plausible scum due to lack of contribution but also plausible scared-town. I'm considering him as a compromise vote. TKHawkins and Sloosh should still be around. | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote DimmuKlok | ||
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I'm thinking this is so tough to get a majority that we might even have picked scum. | ||
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Off to flagellate myself and then sleep. We do the 20-hour dummy voting run on day 2. | ||
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On February 19 2012 15:40 slOosh wrote: Hindsight bias. If you figured it out last night you should have said so, so you either didn't believe that you were right or you withheld information from us. It was speculative reasoning at the time, but I hinted at it in these two posts: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13573775 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13574870 I'll explain the eventual reasoning because it's important for the conclusion. Before the late compromise switch, we had 4-5 players each on ET and MG who had no interest in switching to the other, plus another 6 votes scattered between DYH, Sloosh, Gumshoe and DimmuKlok. We had maybe 6-7 players who were active and willing to switch votes. Unless by some fluke scum were all absent for the lynch, we needed scum support to reach 8 votes. The trouble is that this is extremely likely to happen again, because it's a consequence of the lynch deadline. We really need to be narrowing down the field of candidates long before the deadline so that every townie has a chance to make their vote count. The plan: We set a dummy deadline 27 hours after the start of day 2, and we try to get a "lynch" by then. Anyone not treating the deadline seriously should be considered scummy. Someone please agree with this plan before I go completely insane. | ||
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jaj22
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Your theory on Janaan is probably wrong though. Not only would it be terrible scum play to buddy up to your scumbuddy, but according to Qatol in the NMM3 post-game, buddying up to veterans is a common town-tell. Newbie town players look to veterans for support, newbie scum players look to their ScumQT. Despite this, buddying up to townies as scum can be an extremely effective tactic as long as the town player isn't likely to get lynched otherwise. Unless you think DYH is town and the attacks on him are town-driven, Janaan as scum doesn't make much sense there either. A lot of players don't like getting buddied because of this scum tactic. Check out this post from ET: On February 18 2012 09:44 EchelonTee wrote: don't buddy to me, I don't like that. Talk about my points, if you agree with me. | ||
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Sorry guys, failed you completely. GG. | ||
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On February 25 2012 09:12 GreYMisT wrote: Im going to quote the entire obs QT here: "there is no way alderan is scum" I never mentioned him except for hating that day 2 post where he put ET in red for no good reason. There were about six players I'd have lynched before him though, so well played. | ||
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But I eventually decided that scum wouldn't risk something like that. I overthink this stuff | ||
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But I can't complain about anyone else playing badly. I had strong scumreads on Steveling and TKHawkins on the second half of day 1 but I just didn't have the will to push them. Nothing to do with being DT, just psychological weakness. Probably looked solid blue to scum. | ||
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On February 26 2012 01:26 MidnightGladius wrote: Am I the only one who finds it hilarious that I was the only one to post suspicions on Alderan, prior to which no one had him on the radar. Afterwards, no one had him on the radar. And now in post-game, everyone says that no one was suspicious of him. I just noticed that your initial case points out that Alderan was a relative veteran, which totally invalidates me fitting him into a particular newbie-town archetype. We should have been holding him to much higher standards. There was a general problem with people who'd played or watched NMM3 holding each other to excessively high standards given that it wasn't actually a good town performance. I summed it up with this post but it also applied to my case against you: On February 19 2012 07:18 jaj22 wrote: Trying to drag myself out of my state of despair. Sloosh and DoYouHas: I think you're expecting too much from each other. When obsing Student Mafia, I had about seven strong town reads at the end of day 1. When obsing NMM3, I had zero. Fundamentally, I don't think you do a great job of looking townie in the early game, and you're both finally picking up on that. I also don't think either of you are a good lynch today. | ||
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