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On February 21 2012 09:16 Mattchew wrote:i think i found the scum team... the entire scum team. Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 05:06 Mattchew wrote:
Zelblade, trackd00r, MidnightGladius, TKHawkins
all switched from ET to Dimmu outstandingly quickly.
This set off an alarm, so I went back and read the exchange of the final hour before the mislynch. The four of them take over the thread here CLICK MEor for those of us to lazy to click and re-read + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 08:57 jaj22 wrote:
TKHawkins? Gumshoe? Anyone?
I'm thinking this is so tough to get a majority that we might even have picked scum.
On February 19 2012 08:58 MidnightGladius wrote:
TKHawkins, you mispelled it. It won't get counted. On February 19 2012 08:58 trackd00r wrote:hawkins you wrote wrong!!  On February 19 2012 08:59 slOosh wrote:
Copy paste one of our votes
On February 19 2012 08:26 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 08:07 EchelonTee wrote:On February 19 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote:MidnightGladius played totally weird day 1 when he was vig. I can understand the conclusions he came to, and maybe his difference in play is attributable to him not being a vig this time around. On February 19 2012 06:23 slOosh wrote:On February 19 2012 05:20 MidnightGladius wrote:
sl00sh has been quiet, but I'm going to leave him be for now. He doesn't stand out from the rest of the lurkers, and I don't think pressuring him with this little time left in the day will be as effective as just confirming our lynch for the day. Your post left out your thoughts on EchelonTee. What are your thoughts on him and his posting? I discourage trying to lynch MidnightGladius today. Not because he is leaving me alone, but because his focus is on finding scum, not using his precious first day vote to pressure me. I'm not saying he isn't mafia. I'm saying that right now DoYouHas seems like a much better suspect. Midnight is at least following town logic, and I agree with the logic he uses (such as not wanting to share town reads right now. I don't agree with some conclusions he is coming to but the logic is sound). DoYouHas, however is not being logical at all, even though he demonstrates that he knows what town should do in NMMIII. Him not going for any solid reads is very suspicious, I agree. He posted a lot, early last game, even though he was blue, so he would have no reason to be so under the radar at the moment. If he seriously does not change his vote before deadline, then I will find that highly suspicious. His case on you is not solid enough to leave his vote there. However, there is no way enough momentum will be achieved to lynch him atm, and any attempt to do so would be a massive vote switch with not enough discussion. which is bad. MidnightGladius not wanting to share town reads is good logic, but that just means that he is skilled enough to know to say that. You say that he is trying to find scum, but I argue he is only looking for easy mislynches. Im pretty sure that DYH has stated that he will not be around for the lynch, and a few hours after it. Which solidifies the notion that he is scum. I seriously doubt a townie DYH would just dump his vote on such a weak read heavily based on his expactations of sl0osh, formed on ONE game. He is a good player, and this doesnt seem like him. On February 19 2012 08:26 MidnightGladius wrote:
We have less than an hour to reach a consensus. How many people are even active right now?
Mattchew, I thought you wouldn't be around. Why are you voting for me? On February 19 2012 08:28 zelblade wrote:
Midnight, can u adress the case posted by ET? What are your thoughts on him after his defense and what do you think of his case on you? On February 19 2012 08:29 MidnightGladius wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 08:13 MidnightGladius wrote:
EchelonTee:
1. My first post in NMM3 responded to other posts because other people had posted. In this game, I was the second poster, concurrent with DYH. Your allegation is baseless.
2. Our posting styles are different. You dislike mine, and I dislike yours. Fine. What specifically have I not contributed to? What topics have I failed to address? What questions have I failed to answer?
3. I was referring to FP's terrible use of statistics (saying that 30% chance on a random lynch was good), not the fact that he was green. Anyone trying to use bad reasoning is anti-town in my eyes.
4. jaj22 has no valid case on me. If he did, he would be presenting one. I don't see it. Do you? Don't push him into taking shots at me that he clearly isn't willing to take.
5. gumshoe and I had been the only ones going back and forth for quite some time. He asked me some questions, I answered them, and suggested that we both back off for a bit to cool down and sleep on our thoughts. I happen to think that my reasoning is good, and you still haven't convinced me otherwise. If you think that I'm completely and utterly scummy, then you really need to take a step back and fully re-evaluate the claims that you're making and the evidence from which you're making them. On February 19 2012 08:33 MidnightGladius wrote:
People who seem to be active right now:
1. Me
2. zelblade
3. jaj22
4. Mattchew
5. Janaan
6. gumshoe
We need to make a decision. The town gains nothing from a no lynch. We have 30 minutes.
Looking at the voting list, there's no way we can get a majority on anyone by EchelonTee or me. Make up your minds, or else Day 2 is going to be a mess. On February 19 2012 08:35 trackd00r wrote:Lynch time is approaching. ET, I just hope that you keep posting good cases like that. Even though I disagree with MG lynch, your last posts are making up my mind. I'm going to unvote by now. As for the candidates we have now, I think that our biggest option is DimmuKlok. Yes, it's been a while since you haven't posted good content. This post caught my attention: Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 14:27 DimmuKlok wrote:
I accidentally posted before I was finished. I will continue from where i left off.
I'm not actually sure what you meant by that, but nothing in that post was sarcasm. I'm was not bandwagoning when it came to gumshoe. He was one of my highest suspicions at the time of the post, and remains the highest on my list. For this reason I'm giving him my vote.
If there is anything I can do for you guys to help prove my innocence then feel free to post it.
##vote: gumshoe Proving your innocence is something that you should be doing subconsciously when playing as town. You know that you are innocent, and that should be enough to show your confidence to us. I expect a mafia player trying to ask for help, but not a townie. Your other posts were your defense against alderan, apologies and calling out lurkers. I think that scum is making it's best effort to hide your case, but as the lynch is coming, I have to cast a realistic vote that doesn't hurt the town. ##Unvote: EchelonTee##Vote: DimmuKlokThe is a chance that I miss the lynch, but I'll try to not. On February 19 2012 08:35 zelblade wrote:
I am quite sure that both of you arent scum. Can we get a switch to DYH? I will add my vote onto one of you guys if neccessary, but only to prevent a no lynch - as that would be disatrious. On February 19 2012 08:39 zelblade wrote:
Just filtered DimmuKlok. Wouldnt terribly mind lynching him.
Guys if you are here, please chime in. Dont bring up new candidates please. Also, those on gumshoe should switch since it seems like he wont be lynched if you are here. Its going to be hard to achieve a majority and we need every single one of you here, and if you are, vote for one of the four NOW. On February 19 2012 08:44 zelblade wrote:
Gosh we are gonna no lynch at this rate. On February 19 2012 08:44 MidnightGladius wrote:
20 minutes left. Are we seriously just going to sit idly and let the first day go by?
##Unvote: EchelonTee
##Vote: DimmuKlok On February 19 2012 08:45 jaj22 wrote:
I don't want to lynch DYH, as I think his posting was fine up to the lynch business. It's possible he felt it was the best of two bad options.
DimmuKlok is plausible scum due to lack of contribution but also plausible scared-town. I'm considering him as a compromise vote.
TKHawkins and Sloosh should still be around.
On February 19 2012 08:46 EchelonTee wrote:
I'm fine with DimmuKlok lynch. Obviously don want no lynch still dotaing. On February 19 2012 08:46 zelblade wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: DimmuKlok
DYH will sadly not be lynched today, so Im switching to my 2nd strongest read (on the four current candidates) On February 19 2012 08:51 MidnightGladius wrote:
In that case we still need 1 more vote on DimmuKlok to get majority. Where did everyone who was posting earlier go?
I still don't have replies from:
- gumshoe
- Mattchew
- Janaan
gumshoe was active all of yesterday, and now he suddenly decides to disappear? At the most important time? And then Mattchew pops into the thread, posts a one-liner, and vanishes again? When he said earlier that he wouldn't be back until after the lynch? Christ in buckets. On February 19 2012 08:52 jaj22 wrote:
Switching to DimmuKlok. That makes six, and seven if ET switches. Need one more to lynch.
##Unvote
##Vote DimmuKlok
On February 19 2012 08:52 slOosh wrote:
Not letting no lynch happen.
##Unvote
##Vote DimmuKlok Now tell me this doesn't look like teamwork. They don't even have to provide a reason other than "i don't want a no-lynch and I dont like the midnight case" Sloosh and Jaj get pulled into the lynching is pro-town atmosphere and then when 1 more vote is needed TKHAWKINS MAGICALLY ARRIVES READY TO CHANGE HIS VOTE WOO WOO. reading their filters they are all afraid to talk about one another... do a ctrl f of eachMidnightGladiusMG has 3 pages of filter, yet only mention zelblade once here + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 08:33 MidnightGladius wrote:
People who seem to be active right now:
1. Me
2. zelblade
3. jaj22
4. Mattchew
5. Janaan
6. gumshoe
We need to make a decision. The town gains nothing from a no lynch. We have 30 minutes.
Looking at the voting list, there's no way we can get a majority on anyone by EchelonTee or me. Make up your minds, or else Day 2 is going to be a mess. he only mentions tkhawk once here + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 08:59 MidnightGladius wrote:
In buckets! and a ctrl-f of track provides 0 results ZelbladeZelblade reads midnight from null to town very quickly and back to null again Ctrl-F reveals + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 14:02 zelblade wrote:
I am null on MidnightGladius for now. His posts have been related to the setup as mentioned, but he did seem to focus alot on the setup in Newbie Mini Mafia III too. Could go either way for now. On February 19 2012 08:24 zelblade wrote:
Now onto MidnightGladius. I do not believe that he is mafia. He seems to be playing really similiar to NMMIII, where he (on day 1 at least) constantly posts fluff and speculates on the setup. However, ET raises some good points against MG, and I would like to see his responses especially to the "scumslip" raised by ET. I am not willing to lynch him for now.
On February 19 2012 08:28 zelblade wrote:
Midnight, can u adress the case posted by ET? What are your thoughts on him after his defense and what do you think of his case on you? As for EchelonTee and MidnightGladius, The two of them were the main candidates for lynch today before the last minute switch to dimmu since the players present couldnt achieve a majority on either of them. Honestly, I had them pegged as both town. The main reason for my suspisions on ET earlier was for his sheep vote before going away without any sort of reasoning - and I expect more from him due to the fact that he seems to be a good and experienced player. His responses to my suspisions and the many other cases on him are also good, and he clearly addresses them, as well as posting a detailed case on MG. As such, I dropped my vote on him. I have also repetadely stated that MG is probably town - he seems to be playing similar to last game, with a tendancy to post fluff and speculation regarding the setup. I also didnt really find his actions condemning. However, having reread his filter and taken another look at ET's case, he does seem to have a tendancy to push only the easiest targerts. I would really like to see him make a few more reads. Another thing that is suspisious about the both of them is their actions leading up to the lynch. Despite apparently being convinced that each other was scum, they hardly did anything about it, hardly pushing each other. If my strongest scum read was closest to majority along with me, I would definately attempt to get as many as possible to switch off me and onto my scum read. I can understand their reasons for switching, but them not pushing harder seems wierd to me. For now, these two could, imo, flip any way. They could be 2 townies tunneling each other, a townie and a mafia going at each other, or perhaps even 2 mafia bussing each other (doubtful). Either way, my reads on both of them are Null for now. With Tk its 1 post leaning town + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 23:27 zelblade wrote:
TKHawkins - As with Janaan, transparent. Even though I dont really agree with some of his reads and logic, I get the feel of townie trying to help from him. Leaning [green]town[/green].
with track he's null + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 23:27 zelblade wrote:trackdo0r - He has been transparent with his reads during the first part of the day. However, he has started to post less, and the content of his posts have also dwindled. Im gonna just quote you here: Show nested quote +-Zelbalde has only posted once, giving advice to us and apologizing. This was his biggest flaw last game. We know that you are a busy person zelblade, but posting just once is fine, instead of refilling your posts with more 'sorry' and making you either difficult to read or a scum candidate. Do what you have asked me to do. Instead of apologising for your inactivity, post your reads, and push them. You have promised them though, and i will be looking forward to seeing them. Null for now. His soft defenses and weak town reads on midnight + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 01:59 trackd00r wrote:
-MidnightGladius has somewhat posted in the begging of the game. However, he does still have that flaw present in the past game, which is to make useless calculations and proportions about the mafia/town ratio. I feel that doesn't really contributes much to the dialogue. His next post have been better though, analyzing and commenting about the Echelon-sloosh clash and the not that succesful plan of gumshoe. I hope he keeps like that.
Important to mention that those 3 players had blue roles in NMM3, so looking through their posts in the next days can make a clearer picture of them and their attitude to everything in general.
On February 18 2012 11:39 trackd00r wrote:
MidnightGladius: You are in the very edge of what I consider constructive posting and what is just repeating what others said. I look you more to the path of constructiveness, but I'm expecting more about you. Your posting was slightly better in NMM3, although limited still (you were vig that game). Be a little more aggressive, but that's all.
On February 18 2012 12:54 trackd00r wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 12:49 EchelonTee wrote:
trackdoor, my plan is to lynch scum. as townie, i'm nost supposed to have elaborate plans. why would u assume that i have a master plan
can ppl stop ignoring my post on dimmuklok. stop saying that i'm doing nothing and posting "flashy", i posted some analysis. OK, fine. Now I would like to hear some analysis about your vote on MidnightGladius On February 20 2012 12:23 trackd00r wrote:
Personally, I'm not convinced with MidnightGladius case. I don't agree with the reasoning that jaj and ET gave. I'm not going to get into details about that, since we need to focus in other targets that don't create chaos.
His softest pressure in the world into friendly town read on Zelblade + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 01:59 trackd00r wrote:
-Zelbalde has only posted once, giving advice to us and apologizing. This was his biggest flaw last game. We know that you are a busy person zelblade, but posting just once is fine, instead of refilling your posts with more 'sorry' and making you either difficult to read or a scum candidate. On February 18 2012 23:41 trackd00r wrote:
Zelblade, I'm glad you are posting again
On February 21 2012 01:15 trackd00r wrote:
Regarding the DYH situation, I believe the best we can do is hold the vote to him. The only real and possibly working solution that scum can pull if DYH is red is to push other cases now. I agree with the points that Zelblade made. No one is going to jump into the spotlight and defend him.
Next to nothing on TK + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 11:39 trackd00r wrote:TWhawkins This has been his only contribution so far: Show nested quote +On February 17 2012 13:56 TKHawkins wrote:
Welcome.
First game on this forum. Anyway, I don't think Gumshoes poll is scummy. It's more likely he just thought "he I wonder if this idea would work." Clearly the answer is no and he didn't really think it through. Seems like more of newbie attempt at something more then anything else. I'm sure the obsever quick thread is already LOLing hard at us. I laughed too (and didn't vote since I hadn't known the game had started).
As for the policy on Lurker hunting, it's obviously a bit early to call people lurkers since many people might not even know the game has started yet (though definately not too early to discuss how to handle lurkers). It is best not to go after lurkers right away. The mafia generally aren't going to be completely inactive at the start. Rather, they are going to try to blend in. Scum post a reasonable amount, but don't contribute.
And finally, the Sl0osh vs Ech thing, I do think it's suspicious for Sl0osh to be acting defensive already. We need to hear more. Please, don't be shy. Come with some accusations. Your posts somewhat seem to you to look interested, but your post count says to opposite. On February 18 2012 23:41 trackd00r wrote:
@TKhawkins: There is a huge difference between a player who posts lots of content less posts and one who post a few but deep and content. For example blae000 hasn't posted a lot of times, but his posts are good. Ech and gumshoe, in the other hand...
Literally the worst post about a player I have ever seen... about zelblade... from "I don't see how he is contributing" to "Pro-town" IN LESS THAN 2 SENTENCES LOL + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
Zelblade Says Ech is mafia and... that's it? I don't see how he is contributing if he is only going to comment on one or two players. The stuff he says about Ech though is good. Pro-town, but lurking too much.
On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
Midnight I can't get a solid read on him.
On February 19 2012 02:53 TKHawkins wrote:
Blae, since I have you here, what do you think of Midnight? On February 19 2012 04:37 TKHawkins wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 03:34 jaj22 wrote:On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
jaj Says flashy and aggressive play are not scummy when talking about Ech. But that's also how he is playing. Convenient eh? Would like more of an explanation about why Midnight in particular deserves a pressure vote, when there are so many others that could have used that too. 1. If you don't believe me on that point, you can PM Palmar and ask him. Or you can just read Palmar's town play. 2. That's not a pressure vote. I think he's scum. You can tell because I wrote a case on him with his name in bold red text. While his contribution to town is no lower than a lot of other players, he's the one who should know better. I'll be writing another post covering his play since my case shortly. It's not that I don't think the point is generally valid. It's that I think it's self serving. It's like one blonde saying to another blonde that "blondes have more fun." Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 09:31 jaj22 wrote:
Ok, screw it. I'm making a case.
MidnightGladius:
1. Starts off with a number of completely useless posts on setup. Didn't even do the probability.
2. Makes the usual post on ET vs Sloosh and Gumshoe's poll. Yeah, so did everyone else.
3. Votes the easy target (MannerKiss) with an elaborate lurker-lynch reasoning.
4. Votes the easy target (Gumshoe) because he spams and sucks at statistics.
That's it. Low post count apart from the setup filler. No interest in anyone in except the easy targets, and contributing next to nothing to town as a result. I don't think he posted much more in Newbie Mini III, but he had the excuse of being blue there, and it was a slower game (too damn slow). He should know better.
Probably much too early to be putting people in bold red, but I'm bored waiting for all the lurkers to post.
Like I said earlier, I still can't get a good read on Midnight, and looking through filters neither can a few other people. Even your accusation starts with "oh, screw it. I'm making a case." That makes me think you don't even believe the accusation yourself. You even say the only reason you did it was because you were bored. If you have something more since then to back it up, please post. Otherwise there is no way in hell I'm voting for Midnight based on just that. On February 19 2012 05:50 TKHawkins wrote:##Vote: EchelonTeeHe rides the coat tails of other people's thoughts + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 09:54 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 09:51 MidnightGladius wrote:
Finally some excitement! Or are you just going to run some of that point-by-point analysis with the red numbers? you're hilarious. DoYouHas, I'm soft defending gumshoe now. I guess you were writing up your post without seeing the updates. We have the same thoughts though. Let's lynch MidnightGladius. Or DimmuKloK no seriously, I gtg. I love the activity though, so refreshing  He then jumps along with jaj22's post and votes for Midnight. He would not be on my radar if it wasn't for that. I can't see a strong reason for the MidnightGladius vote especially with both the people voting for him not backing up their vote once it's questioned. On February 19 2012 08:57 TKHawkins wrote:
Bah accidentally deleted my post because I was flipping through various windows. ##unvote: EchelonTee While I don't completely believe his read on Midnight enough to vote for Midnight, Ech at least followed through with his word and eventually gave a reason (abiet, giving people like me very little time left to change our votes).
##Vote DimmunKlok He's the best candidate we got right now. On February 19 2012 11:27 TKHawkins wrote:Alright, having reread some stuff after the flip, Alderan was the first to put up a case for DDimmuKlok and stuck on him. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 07:34 Alderan wrote:On February 19 2012 07:24 EchelonTee wrote:
Dimmuklok responded adequately to Alderan's post, which was similar to mine. DYH and sloosh need more info as far as I'm concerned, so that only leaves:
Can someone please explain this sentiment? Am I missing something? To my case he responded:"I'm new, I'm new, I don't understand your case, I'm new." His play after my case:"I'm still on my gumshoe wagon, I don't know what to think about Midnight, I don't know what I think about Hawkin and Manner, and I'm too tired to give an opinion on Steveling" If someone can please point me to the direction of pro town play I would greatly appreciate it. And he is another player posting his inability to read Midnight and some weak calls. On February 20 2012 05:29 TKHawkins wrote:Thoughts on EchelonTee I still don't buy the Midnight argument. There is sorta a WIFOM argument to his post's existence. Half the town had told him if he didn't post something against Midnight, we were lynching him. So, he posted something against Midnight. He'd post that regardless of whether he was town or scum. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 07:24 EchelonTee wrote:On February 18 2012 06:31 MidnightGladius wrote:On February 18 2012 06:14 gumshoe wrote:On February 18 2012 05:53 DoYouHas wrote:On February 18 2012 05:44 gumshoe wrote:
Definitley need to take the risk of a lurker lynch, there are three lurkers currently in the game, manner zell and one more I forget, theres a 75 percent chance one of them is mafia. A chance I think we need to take cause were one townie short.
Could you explain this further? I don't follow the 75% chance. In a sample group of 4 random players in a 16 player game with 4 mafia its almost a 100 percent chance that one of the 4 in the random group is mafia, this is not a random group though, none of these 3 specific lurkers have contributed much making them suspeicius which increases the odds of them bieng mafia. Overall if we pick a lynch from of the three random lurkers there is statistically speaking a good chance that one of them will be mafia, because a) one in four players is probably mafia and b) there behaviour is suspicious. I only see three obvious lurkers therefore the odds are not 100 percent of one of them being mafia. There is a 60 percent chance rather(15 divided by 5 = 3 three is 20 percent of 15. So the odds of three random players being lurkers is twenty percent, but the odds of one of them being mafia is 60 percent exactly. Christ in buckets, it's FakePromise all over again :S Gumshoe's statistical analysis is misleading and flawed. I'd rather not clutter up this topic with the details, but in non-technical terms, he's making WIFOM assumptions in setting up the problem, not counting the distribution of outcomes properly, and I don't even know how what he means by: [redacted] At this point I'm going to have to assume malicious intent. Several of us have warned him about this, and he's continuing to try and derail the discussion. He's been spamming even more than before, using really bizarre logic to defend himself, and he still has yet to provide much in the way of content. In a way, this is worse than lurking, and it's way beyond what I would expect an innocent newbie to do :/ ##Unvote: MannerKiss##Vote: Gumshoe 3..........this has to be a scum slip. FakePromise was a GREEN, TOWNIE last game. If you see another fakepromise, why are you voting him??? How is he being malicious, hes just making bad statistical analysis!! at this point you are pushing a terrible lynch. So he thinks Midnight voting Gumshoe is a terrible lynch push and comparing Gumshoe to FakePromise is a scum slip. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 09:27 EchelonTee wrote:On February 19 2012 08:19 gumshoe wrote:
I have an aching feeling that Ech will flip green if we kill him ) : that opening move of his was almost as bad as mine and hes supposed to be good, I cant imagine him being coached by other mafia through all this. I hate it but its gonna have to be a no lynch unless gladeus says he eats babies or something. Maybe we can vote for one of the lurkers? Manner/michael? Zell?
1. i'm not good. why suggest this so openly. this is my 4th game playing. 2. as mattchew said, this could be a scumslip; he knows I would flip green and is planting this. After my aggressive opening towards gumshoe I dont know why he would support me as such. Thoughts? Oh so pushing Gumshoe back into the center of attention. Ech thinks Gumshoe could be scum now. So that means Midnight's push to lynch him wasn't terrible. So your justification for going after Midnight has gone away right? Nope. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 09:38 EchelonTee wrote:On February 19 2012 09:33 slOosh wrote:
So ... the lynch is over and you two (EchelonTee & MidnightGladius) just drop the cases on each other?
What do you guys think of each other? I still think he's scum. Going after Mattchew, Mannerkiss's replacement is consistent, so I can't fault him for that, but I can't agree with him wanting to vote him for 1. voting himself, aka OMGUS, and 2. being AWOL from thread with excuse. he could be using his phone you know. Or maybe he hasn't quite left yet. Point is, mattchew isn't being constructive but he not an autovote. especially because he's only posted a bit. However, I think examining the other happenings in the thread is a good idea. I could endlessly tunnel Midnight, but I need to get a good look at the bigger picture. Besides, you really think its strange that I'm addressing the lynch that just happened, over midnight? I was literally the last voter on him, I should be scrutinized for doing so. On February 20 2012 11:28 TKHawkins wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 10:43 gumshoe wrote:
DYH what do you think of my argument about Jaj being the best pick due to his death leaving so many conflicts intact, and what do you think of Hawk? The reason I ask the first question is because I think you and sloosh might have to drop your fight and I think I have to stop attacking Steveling as well, because I feel like the mafia took care to leave these flimsy conflicts intact so they could continue to create chaos, thats why I think they killed jaj despite the fact that the case for him being blue was not 100 percent(though as I mentioned earlier it did seem pretty strong from my perspective). That is unless Jaj posed the biggest threat regardless and just had to die. Which do you think was the bigger reason? conflict preservation or threat elimination?
Oh and the second question about Hawk is just out of curiosity(SUSPICIOUS CURIOSITY!) That's the definition of WIFOM logic. Best not to over think it. As for your suspicions against me because I was against the Midnight vote. I couldn't get a good read on Midnight, and neither can a lot of people. The only people who did have a read on him were reading him as scum. That fact alone is odd and suspicious. I'm not sure Midnight is town, I'm just more comfortable following my own reads then blindly following somebody else's. On February 20 2012 12:08 TKHawkins wrote:
I'm not sold on the logic of the Midnight read, but I'm not going to go after you anymore based on just a bad read.
Track - from 1 question, 1 answer to pro-town + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote:
@Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? On February 19 2012 01:05 TKHawkins wrote:
@Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read.
I think that this is a load of bullcrap. In that list of mine that you mention, I have many other leaning town and null reads - such as bale, janaan and steve. I dont see how the four of us are connected just because we are "all afraid to talk about one another". In fact, I seriously doubt mafia is sitting still with all town reads on each other and I am relatively sure that they at the very least have dumped some suspision on each other.
Also, regarding the day one lynch, I have stated many times my reason for pushing a dimmuklok lynch is simple. I believe that a no-lynch greatly hurts town as it just gives mafia a free night for kills and provides hardly any information whatsoever. The main candidates at that time were ET and MG - both of whom I didnt believe would flip scum at that time. Therefore, I attempted to push out a lynch on DYH - which apparently failed due to the lack of support from the active townies. Thus, I went on to the next best lynch in my mind - dimmuklok - which i felt had a higher chance to flip scum than any of the top candidates. As such, I pushed forward for his lynch and tried to get people to switch. I dont see how doing so is scummy in any way, nor do I see how it connects me to the rest who were actively trying to secure a lynch. In fact, if I was scum, I would just have afk'd and watched a no-lynch happen and give my team a free kill at night.
In my opinion, you are forming non-exsistent links among a few players just because we seem like we are "afraid" to mention each other.
Also, why the sudden switch? Sloosh makes extermely good points regarding you - on how you simply throw out four candidates on weak reasoning - and state that DYH is town without a decent amount of reasoning.
I think we have found a scum here guys. Of course I still want DYH to flip today, but we hang Mattchew tomorrow.
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On February 21 2012 11:00 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 10:39 slOosh wrote:On February 20 2012 12:52 Mattchew wrote:On February 20 2012 12:42 slOosh wrote:
TOWN ARE YOU TRYING TO GO FOR NO LYNCH AGAIN???
We have ONE Lynch. ONE. If you want to FOS someone else you better have a good reason why you aren't voting DYH or Midnight or Echelon or whoever.
We find and lynch mafia ONE AT A TIME.
this. 100x over this Not reading anything till you explain this. DYH will be lynched today. Unless anyone has substantial evidence as to why he is town,
HE WILL BE LYNCHED TODAY. Sloosh, you know there can be framers in this game right?
What the hell is this? If you have spotted a blue, I see ZERO reason to point it out to the rest of the thread - unless they are gonna get lynched, and even so im pretty sure they can claim themselves at that point - which definately isnt the case here. Just be quiet and let them do their job. All this does is give additional targerts to mafia. Dont ever do this please.
Also, possible scumslip? Why do you think that there are framers in the game? Framers arent really a common role from what I understand, and if I did think that sloosh was tunneling due to a wrong check I would be much more open to the idea of a miller rather than a framer, as I believe that they are a much more common role as opposed to framers.
Why, gumshoe, did you think that (note that all this is under gum's apparent suspision that sloosh DT'd DYH and got a wrong check) DYH being framed is more likely than him being a miller?
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rG needs to get in here and post.
Alderan needs to provide something more subsantial.
trackdoor and hawkins are lurking hardcore.
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On February 21 2012 17:38 EchelonTee wrote:
...what? gumshoe has not spotted a blue. what are you talking about. I see it as gumshoe is implying that the "substantial evidence" would be someoneELSE's DT check "exonerating" DYH; he never directly implicates sloosh as blue. My last Normal Mini (hosted by GMarshal interestingly enough), I was the Framer, rendering your speculation moot. Your discussion is idle, inaccurate role discussion. So was gumshoe's, but there is no reason for you to continue this line of thought.
Your words on mattchew are more interesting however.
something to note:
Steveling's response to Mattchew's case: Best thing since Klondike Bars.
My response: I like his font (aka I think there are at least 2 scum in his list.)
Mostly Everyone else: Mattchew is a scumbag, faker, liar.
Kind of a large disparity in that. You guys all really don't think the "scum don't interact with each other" thing is, at the very least, a tell that should be looked into?
I interpreted that gumshoe seems to think that sloosh did DT check dyh, since he mentioned framer. I agree that this is a dumb point, and I will drop it.
I do agree that there are probably scum in that list though. The "scum dont interact with each other" thing is a really weak point imo. It is all WIFOM as we dont know how scum act. People have different playstyles and I, as said, doubt that mafia are that unwilling to mention each other. Add that to the fact that his case is totally based off what I believe is a weak point and that he has contributed no other major reads whilst being so confident that he has found the entire scum team on day 2 due to some non-exsistent links screams scum to me.
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On February 21 2012 18:47 DoYouHas wrote:I would like to add one observation of my own to your case against zelblade, matt. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 23:27 zelblade wrote:
Im posting my reads in case I die tonight. I would have prefered posting this closer towards the end of night, but am posting it now as I have school tomorrow and need to go sleep now, and will not be online from around now to about 5.00 KST (+8).
Why did zelblade feel the need to point out his fear about dying last night? If he is a townie then he should realize that he was not active, trusted, or influential enough to be anywhere near the top of the mafia's hit list at this point. This leaves me with 2 possibilities. The first is that he is overcompensating for his knowledge that he won't be hit by posting his fear. The second is that he is blue and slipped up. I wouldn't even post this analysis except for the fact that I think the former is much more likely than the latter atm. Good Luck
The reason why I did this is simple. Someone (dont really rmb who atm and dont really wanna go search for it) called me out for not giving my reads during the night last game in NMMIII. He than went on to use such a point to attack me - saying that I didnt post my reads because I was mafia, and that I didnt post them because I knew I wouldnt die. I didnt want to repeat this, and as such posted this.
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Matt your play is actively hurting town. You might not realise this but what you are doing is shitting the thread. We dont give a shit that you think that you are the best player here, and that you apparently consider your joke of a case to be 100% accurate. Several others have already pointed this out but you are being an ass , shitting on the town atmosphere and managing to offend quite a few players at the same time. I dont care what you think of yourself or your case but please stop for god's sake. Than again you are scum so just get modkilled already.
Onto your case. I know that you are at least wrong on one count 100% (myself) and I am doubtful that the rest of your goddammed case is accurate. Yes, Hawkins and Trackdoor dont look good now, but it has absolutely NOTHING to do with your case. You state that it is a case that "has a ton of substance" - I call bullshit on that. Your dumb case has TWO points. Yes, TWO. Not to mention they are WEAK. I have already explained that the links you speak of are retarded - They dont exsist. The reason why i switched from ET to dimmu I have said a thousand times - I felt dimmu was the best possible lynch in that case. You also cant just assume that we are all scum because we switched. If you say we were all scum, I wouldnt give a shit about the lynch and just dissapear and watch town derp to a no lynch. We were active during the deadline - trying actively to find a good lynch candidate. Do you really feel that all 4 of us are scum - without a doubt? Your case is balls and you know it.
Mattchew's case is horrible. For those that think that all 4 of his scumteam are scum, read through it again. Do you really think that it is strong? Do you really think that it holds any basis? The links between us are, I emphasise non-exsistant. This is also why I believe that Mattchew is scum - and his recent posts have been shitting on the town atmosphere. Do you really think a townie would do that? Dont you find Mitchy's sureness of DYH flipping green suspisious?
I repeat, Mattchew needs to hang tomorrow.
@ET - I do agree with you that there definately scum in the list. Not that I agree with that dumb case, but when you take a player who has been under heavy suspision, and two scummy lurkers, I dont see how you wont have scum inside.
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Trackd0or also reads scum to me.
I had a town read on him during the first part of the day, as his posts were logical and were pro-town. However, this read quickly turned to a null one as his activity rapidly subsided. He seemed to be thought of as town by most, yet he didnt actively push any strong cases and has just been sheeping all game long. Recently what has been the nail in the coffin is the tone of his last post.
+ Show Spoiler +Ok, looking how things are going now, it looks that I'm going to be lynched the next day.
It's just sad I can say. What did I failed to do? Was my inactivity sometimes? Was because I couldn't get decent reads in some players? Was it because I pushed a mislynch? Or 2 now with DYH?
Don't get me wrong. I'm having a great time playing mafia with you guys. Whatever I do the right choices or not, It's just something that I'm enjoying right now. I'm trying to put a lot of effort playing, but it seems that all this effort is not worth, according to many players have commented about my reads and cases.
I admit the fact that I really didn't take a main or important role since the start. I was very afraid of committing any mistakes or speculations that could have ended up being dead by now. I left the more experienced players to take the lead of the discussion, while I slowly faded away in the mist of laborious analysis and replies from other cases. Sometimes, I read up the thread and I couldn't decide which stance to take, or which path to follow, without bashing my head to the walls wondering what repercussion would have on me. I tried to go in ET, but with his solid defense then I was not just convinced that he is town, but the fact that I'm practically being outplayed by nearly everyone else. This left a huge void of frustration inside me.
Then, I switched my vote quite fast in Dimmulok to prevent a no-lynch. Again, thinking myself it was the right decision to make. The next day, however, I was bombarded with cases regarding a coordinated bandwagon with other 3 players. Then, I was not just frustrated again, but now a huge light dazzled over me, painting me of color red. I defended myself. Still no ones really looks what was happening and take the case as done. Now, I'm on a path to being lynched, with people keeping an eye for every little thing and detail I do.
What really annoys me is how Mattchew threw the case, named a few people and just got the ball rolling. Just in 15 minutes he already convinced a couple of players of my supposed scummisness. A case with no substance and rushed at it's best is now changing the stance of the game. I still agree with some of his views in other players, but the way he presented the analysis was something I didn't expect to see in a mafia, comparing them with what I've seen.
Mattchew, now you can be saying ' ohhh how cute he is defending himself' or 'you just waited for MG to post something to show up' or something like that. Ok, what can I do? You've already have a quite amount of people following your reasoning and it seems that I'm unable to get out of this situation. Go on then.
No matter what happens, I will vote for Tkhawkins the next day. I disliked the way that he and this team pushed for a candidate of being scum. You just don't buddy someone that suspiciously. There's got to be something behind it (I know that steveling or Matt think that I'm bussing anyways). You couldn't pull out a card more nastier than this, could you? For those who want to learn about this claim, just look my filter. I'm tired that people don't want to look up my links going to the points I mentioned in some occasions.
So that's it, sorry If I failed you town. Sorry If I didn't contribute enough. Sorry If I couldn't build up my post to a high level that this game requires it. I still going to vote for someone, since this is not over yet.
Go ahead and say what you want. Or take this post as a desperation to defend myself and lynch a townie.
What happened to this trackdoor?
Zelbalde has only posted once, giving advice to us and apologizing. This was his biggest flaw last game. We know that you are a busy person zelblade, but posting just once is fine, instead of refilling your posts with more 'sorry' and making you either difficult to read or a scum candidate.
You have already stated that apologies wont help. You state that it makes someone difficult to read. So why are you doing it? Why are you apparently giving up on the game? If you are townie in this situation, shouldnt you try to convice others to not lynch you? Mattchew's case is bad and Im not going to vote you because of it, but your reactions towards this is scummy.
Note that this doesnt mean that Mattchew isnt scum, just that he probably has to throw at least 1 or 2 mafia inside.
I want a Mattchew lynch. I am fine towards a trackdoor if you guys are unwilling to lynch matt.
Rereading Hawkins filter now.
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Ok so i reread Hawkins' filter.
He seems to be geinuely busy which could be a reason for all the lurking he has done. This is understandable (for me at least) as I have been rather busy too and couldnt post as much as I liked.
What I dont like are the contents of his posts. The case from DYH is a pretty good one and it echoes my thoughts. His constant noncommital pushes on jannan is based off horrible logic. I did state earlier that I believed that he was just newb townie putting forth bad accusations, but now it seems suspisious as he constantly applies bad logic to several people, and I dont believe that his reads are that bad.
His burst of outrage is ..... I dont really know what to read from it. I dont think that a townie would be afraid of dying, but in his position I would be pretty annoyed if I was town and thought that I was about to be lynched due to a dumb case which people were somehow agreeing on. However, he could easily be scum and be pissed off at the fact that he got caught.
I believe that Hawkin's actions are scummy, but I dont know what to take from his sudden ragequit ._.
It does seem like he is going to get modkilled at this rate, so I guess that this doesnt really matter. On the off chance that he gets a replacement though, I wouldnt really want to lynch him right away but rather see what he does.
Lynch List (in order of prefence)
Mattchew
Trackd0or
TKHawkins
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Btw the hawkins on my lynch list applies only if he (Hawkins) decides to calm down and come back. As stated I rather not lynch a replacement coming in immediatedly.
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On February 22 2012 22:12 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On February 22 2012 17:47 zelblade wrote:
Matt your play is actively hurting town. You might not realise this but what you are doing is shitting the thread. We dont give a shit that you think that you are the best player here, and that you apparently consider your joke of a case to be 100% accurate. Several others have already pointed this out but you are being an ass , shitting on the town atmosphere and managing to offend quite a few players at the same time. I dont care what you think of yourself or your case but please stop for god's sake. Than again you are scum so just get modkilled already.
Onto your case. I know that you are at least wrong on one count 100% (myself) and I am doubtful that the rest of your goddammed case is accurate. Yes, Hawkins and Trackdoor dont look good now, but it has absolutely NOTHING to do with your case. You state that it is a case that "has a ton of substance" - I call bullshit on that. Your dumb case has TWO points. Yes, TWO. Not to mention they are WEAK. I have already explained that the links you speak of are retarded - They dont exsist. The reason why i switched from ET to dimmu I have said a thousand times - I felt dimmu was the best possible lynch in that case. You also cant just assume that we are all scum because we switched. If you say we were all scum, I wouldnt give a shit about the lynch and just dissapear and watch town derp to a no lynch. We were active during the deadline - trying actively to find a good lynch candidate. Do you really feel that all 4 of us are scum - without a doubt? Your case is balls and you know it.
Mattchew's case is horrible. For those that think that all 4 of his scumteam are scum, read through it again. Do you really think that it is strong? Do you really think that it holds any basis? The links between us are, I emphasise non-exsistant. This is also why I believe that Mattchew is scum - and his recent posts have been shitting on the town atmosphere. Do you really think a townie would do that? Dont you find Mitchy's sureness of DYH flipping green suspisious?
I repeat, Mattchew needs to hang tomorrow.
@ET - I do agree with you that there definately scum in the list. Not that I agree with that dumb case, but when you take a player who has been under heavy suspision, and two scummy lurkers, I dont see how you wont have scum inside.
so you think that by doing everything i did (ie. calling my case "retarded" and "balls", alongside aggressively cursing me out) you are now creating this good town atmosphere that you tried to speak of? And no I don't think that I am better than anyone here, I just believe that my case and points are better then the ones previously brought up. but don't overreact or anything zelblade.. you can totally edit this post later... oh wait
Maybe I did overreact a little, but I dont like your attitude. And no im not cursing you out, just pointing out that your assholerly (something that you have admitted to doing) is irritating. I'll try to cut down the insults but I still think your case is bad.
And I dont even get what that last setence means.
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I dont really want to get into an agurment with you about your attitude right now since it will probably just turn into a shitstorm. As such im not gonna continue this conversation with you.
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So it seems that vig shot has pushed us to MYLO. Well at the very least this shows us that mattchew's case is weak.
I have read through the thread and various filters and I still think that trackd00r is definately our best option today.
Trackdoor doesnt have any strong reads, nor does he actively push them. Looking through his filter, one can easily see that he has been sheeping all game long. He starts out by getting onto the ET wagon based on his "flashy and agressive" attitude. Afterwards, during the minutes leading up to the day 1 lynch, he propses Dimmuklok - using Aldrean's accusations as his base - as an alternative targert since we apparently couldnt get a lynch on either MG or ET. He than accuses DYH, before throwing out a weak (and never followed up) FOS on Aldrean, than goes back to voting for DoYouHas. After that he goes on to accuse hawkins after the mattchew case comes up.
Look through his filter and you will notice that all his accusations are really SAFE. He hasnt called out anyone for anything unless someone else has already done it. He says that he doesnt like ET's behaviour, but only votes after I have done so. His pick for a day 1 lynch is a safe lurker. He pushes DYH day 2 after pretty much everyone has decided to lynch him. He FOS's Aldrean only after MG's case. He attacks hawkins only after mattchew's case. Even in there, he selects the easiest targert among the four - the one under the most scrunity - TKHawkins. Not to mention that his case is really weak, and even his read on Hawkins isnt a hard one. Notice how his only scum read coming into day 3 is Hawkins. This is proof that he hasnt been actively hunting scum. Just look at this post for example.
Uh, I think I didn't express myself correctly with that post
What I said is to wait if someone was going to replace him. If not, it would have been the removal of one player, since there are not any back up as I looked OP. In that case, it would be no point of voting for him
I will vote for him he is goes on. Here is why. I just don't feel like exhausting the case any further. At the rate we are going, he will be lynched next day.
But I insist that TK is probably being manipulated by his team mates by the way he is playing. This means that there has to be any kind of mastermind trying to direct his actions, like for example MidnightGladius. I've re-read DYH case on him and then looked at your defense to Matt, and I think things are making more sense now.
I'll post my thoughts about MG in a while.
As for zelblade, I can't get a good read of him. Checking his filter.
Even though, Mattchew reads town for me. My disapproval to his earlier posts was mostly because the way he presented the case and made it's presence. Now that I'm more calm, I actually see a very good guess he is making. Maybe perhaps there is more than a reason that TK is RQing.
I agree with his town reads, and I'm happy with the fact that he is constantly pushing his cases. If this continues, he can easily control the flow of the thread and can leave the mafia exposed.
What he has here is simple. He has one scum read on Hawkins, and feels that MG could be a "mastermind" due to his interactions with hawkins. He is null on me. Town on Matt. Why, as town, would he have only ONE scum read coming into day 3? Why, as town, hasnt he been actively hunting down scum? Why is he being so flip-floppy about his reads? Notice how he promises his thoughts on MG and to read my filter. Notice how these thoughts never come.
Instead, what has he done with his remaining time? Its goddammed MYLO and hes a viable lynch candidate. Why, is he not trying his best to prove his innocence at this point by getting his thoughts out? Instead, lets take a look at his gem of a last post.
Oh God... What a nightmare...
I'm not in the best shape to discuss, but this is what is going to happen. We are 4/6 mafia/town right now. There are two possible ways for the mafia to win this game right now.
1) Rushing and hoping to kill a townie at night 3. When they see a no-way-back target to lynch, they will jump to it and just wait for the kill. They'll try to keep all their effort to secure the mis lynch by leaving the target unable to defend himself back, such as ignoring any alternative candidates or keeping the focus closed. If they choose this way to end, surely they will be very active for a while, and suddenly escape out of the radar when they accomplished their goal.
2) Waiting an(-) extra day(s). Why do they do that you would ask? Mafia can't easily pull off their votes to a single target when there are multiple cases. The sudden jump on one of them will draw a notorious amount of suspicion by us and leave them exposed. So, they'll try to extend their voting range to many suspects with the following goals:
a) Not providing a proper direction to lynches.
b) Causing a no-lynch in order to disorganize us even more.
c) Leaving them with a cleaner background when switching votes the following days.
With this plan, they will probably be depending of night kills, so the medic in this case is crucial.
3) Sacrificing one of their members this night. It will give them credibility to push their agendas to secure a mislynch the next day, granted they made a successful kill the night before. I think that this possibility is the less probable to happen.
I feel that we need to watch out for every dangerous behavior present here that we can be facing. In (1) is constant pressure by them trying to get a lynch. In (2), it would be undecided voters and unclear opinions. (3) would be simply trying to find scumslips and contradictions.
Well, those are my thoughts right now. Comments? Oh wait. I forgot how many of you are convinced that I'm mafia, so I'm not expecting a good feedback from all this. sigh.
What is the townie motivation - especially one on the chopping block at MYLO - to posting this? Instead of getting his suspisions out there, he goes ahead to discuss the ways mafia can win....? There is zero motivation for a townie who was on the road to getting mislynched and losing the game because of it to post something like this. Once again, I dont see why a townie at this stage would have the time to type up a load of crap regarding mafia stratergy yet not be able to make any sort of subsantial case against anyone.
The numerous cases against trackd00r also add on to the fact that trackd0or is scum. Which is also why he gets my vote for today.
##Vote: trackd00r
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Since it seems that I might be a probable lynch candidate today I shall be using this post to defend myself. I have already stated time and time again why I feel that mattchew's case is weak, and I dont see many actual cases on myself today, with the exception of sloosh's. If any of you feel that my actions are scummy feel free to point them out and I will try my best to explain my decisions this game.
On February 23 2012 01:59 slOosh wrote:(I was going to post on all four but its taking longer than I thought so I don't think I have time to do it all, I'll post what I managed to do so far) With some reevaluations my own reads and consideration of DYH's reads, Mattchew's reads overlap pretty well with mine. I'll be looking to bring the case from speculation into substance. Zelblade: I don't like how his actions align with mafia agenda. It doesn't mean he is mafia, but I don't like it. His day 1 actions happen to be in best interest of mafia. Go for ET, prevent anything on MG, offer DYH as alternative, refocus people on DYH after night. I say it again - it doesn't mean he is mafia, but it does mean he warrants suspicion. So let us look. Observe here his stance on me and DYH Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 08:24 zelblade wrote:
slOosh and DYH attacking each other is .... interesting. The seeming lack of sloosh explaining his own views in indeed suspisious. He has posted a case on DYH - but only after being called out. The fact that it seems like an OMGUS doesnt exactly help either. However, his case on DYH is pretty good imo. I have no idea why DYH would want to advocate a no lynch this late. The way he phrases that post seems to give off the feel that he doesnt care much about the lynch. This feels really scummy and the fact that he isnt pushing any reads and is even fine with a no lynch - which he has stated against. Whats with the sudden change in attitude DYH? I think that DYH has a really good chance of flipping scum.
With that, I believe that DYH might be our best lynch for today. Although sl0osh seems somewhat suspisious, I believe that DYH is actually a better lynch due to his nonchalant attitude.
##Unvote
##Vote: DoYouHas Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 23:27 zelblade wrote:Now onto Sloosh and DoYouHas. As I have stated, I find it extremely suspisious of DYH's actions leading up to the lynch. Though he has given his motivations for advocating the no lynch, I still find it a little wierd, especially regarding his attitude. If he was indeed being stubborn on sloosh as he says, I would have expected him to push harder with something more convincing than this: If I have not been convincing enough with my case against sl0osh, so be it. Find the majority without me. Still, his responses against sloosh's case is good and seems valid. This doesnt clear him in my eyes though. Moving on to sloosh, I agree with DYH - he has been really hyprotical regarding DYH, and a good portion of what he accuses DYH of can apply to him as well. What I reallly am interested in would be sloosh's response to this. At this point though, I am fairly convinced that one of them is scum. Doubt that they are both scum, unless this is an elaborate bus which I highly doubt. Supports my case but makes sure to let people know how he is suspicious of me. How can you support a case from someone who you think could be scum?? It doesn't matter how good the case is, if a mafia is proposing it you don't support it. Now that DYH flipped town, he knows it can't be a bus. He is convinced that one of us is scum, but doesn't actually follow up on it. "Oh I think you could be scum but your case is pretty good so I'll support your lynch btw I still think you are scum. Oh the lynch was a townie. I'll ignore you now". I don't think anyone (even inexperienced players) would think / act like this. Also, in the same quote: Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 23:27 zelblade wrote:
Im posting my reads in case I die tonight. I would have prefered posting this closer towards the end of night, but am posting it now as I have school tomorrow and need to go sleep now, and will not be online from around now to about 5.00 KST (+8).
... (the quote above fits in here) ...
Another thing. I believe that all of you should post your reads tonight. If you dont believe in the value of posting your town reads (MG), just post your scum ones than. The reason for this is simple - we want to have as much information from you in case you are shot tonight.
Doesn't really make too much sense here. Only one person will die. His reason for posting is fear of death, and at the same moment tells other people to post just in case they die too. I don't understand why he thought he would die. This again aligns with mafia agenda - get people to post scum lists to make better night kills and make most chaos. (Will post maybe 1 more before I AWOL for IRL stuff until tomorrow evening in ~35 hours).
I dont see how my day 1 actions aglin with mafia agenda. I pushed for ET because of his sheep vote on MG. I felt this action in particular was scummy, and that he could have been mafia attempting to push an easy wagon. However, he later adressed not only my concerns, but also the concerns of many others, as well as posting a detalied case on MG. Whilst I didnt feel that MG was scum at that point, I decided to drop my vote on ET as he had redeemed himself in my eyes.
From there, I go on to vote for DoYouHas. I do state that the way the entire case seemed liked an OMGUS was wierd to me, I felt a little suspisious about it, but that doesnt mean I dont agree with the case. I didnt have a scum read on you - just some slight suspisions - and that doesnt mean that I cannot agree with your case. I felt that the way DYH left his vote on you before going off was a really wierd move and I had expected more from him, considering how much more willing he was to push his reads harder in Newbie Mini Mafia III.
Regarding the "one of them is scum", I reread the thread and your filter after DYH got lynched. Whilst I felt that one of you were scum at the time of that post, having reread, I believed that it could have been more of a case of tunnel vision and confirmation bias, something that you seemed to do with me last game (though I didnt actually get lynched). As such, I felt that that read wasnt a good one, and felt that you were town. Is it bad to constantly reevaluate my reads and drop my cases if I feel that they are wrong?
I have already explained as to why I posted those thoughts. Somebody last game used it against me, saying that I wasnt posting at night because I knew that I couldnt die as I was supposedly scum. Perhaps I overcompensated, but I didnt want to repeat that mistake again. Also, I dont think that getting people to post who they think they are scum is pushing the mafia agenda. In case they died, it would have been useful to know their suspisions, especially if they had important cases they had yet to post. Perhaps I am wrong regarding this, but I still dont see how it creates chaos.
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Next up I shall post my thoughts on the remaining players.
I feel that sloosh, ET & gum are probably town.
These are who I feel could be scum.
Mattchew is still suspisious to me. What I dont like most about him is how he feels so sure on me and his other 3 scum reads. He lumps all of us together, bases his entire case on weak links, as shown by MG flipping green. I also dont like how easily he jumps from voting DYH to saying that DYH is town 100% simply because of the lack of resistance. His attitude after the DYH flip came off as cocky scum to me, which is why I think that he has a good chance of flipping scum. I want to hear your thoughts regarding your scum reads now that MG has flipped green and you cant just point to your case.
Also I need to apologise to you and the hosts. I was pretty irritated yesterday due to doing quite badly for an exam, and your tone pissed me off. Still it was out of the line and I apologise for it.
TkHawkins is another obvious scum candidate. There are already strong points made against him and I agree with them. However I kind of want the ragequit thing to be settled first, and it seems hes probably going to be modkilled anyway.
I have no idea what rG is doing. I did say that I felt bale was town, but it was more of a gut read than anything. I dont like how much rG has been lurking. I feel that he has been given ample time to catch up with the thread. Its MYLO now and he needs to get in here and post his thoughts. He could very well be scum, but im not gonna bet the game that he is doing something stupid and has not caught up and much rather focus on our better targerts today.
Steveling is someone I have had a "enthuastic new townie" read on for quite a while. I still feel that this is the case, although his actions could easily be explained if he were to be scum. Process of elimination suggests to me that he has a rather high chance of flipping scum. Since im very sure that trackdoor is scum though, I still feel that he is town.
Alderan is another player that had given me town vibes with his inital posts. However, since then, he has gone lurk lurk quite a bit, posting very little content. I dont think that being against the DYH lynch adds any town points since he could easily be scum looking to gain some town cred. I also didnt really like his vote analysis as I felt that it was pretty inconclusive, although it is something to add against track. Could flip scum.
I believe that scum does indeed lie within this 5. At this point im only 100% sure on track.
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lol @ all the scum coming out to defend mattchew.
This is who I believe the scum team is.
Mattchew
Trackd00r
Alderan
Last one im not so sure still. Steveling could be scum but I dont really see him and track being scumbuddies. Which leaves either Hawkins or rG. Which sucks since we discern their alignment due to their lurking.
I need to go out for dinner now which might take quite a long time. Will respond to track's response among various other things, and decide if my vote is more useful on matt or track. Im pretty sure we have caught most of the scum team, but what we really need to avoid is splitting our votes on the two of them..... otherwise we might have some last minute switches leading to a no-lynch which happens to be pretty disastrious for us.
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On February 24 2012 03:59 trackd00r wrote:I'm giving my reads. I think that zelblade, Steveling and Alderan are scumWhat bugs me about zel and steve are that they accused me in the say way, which was targeting my safe play. They don't look at any other aspects, such as any bandwagons or other situations that could cause conflict. I'll go more on detail. Look zelblade thoughts about Steve: Show nested quote +On February 23 2012 22:16 zelblade wrote:
Steveling is someone I have had a "enthuastic new townie" read on for quite a while. I still feel that this is the case, although his actions could easily be explained if he were to be scum. Process of elimination suggests to me that he has a rather high chance of flipping scum. Since im very sure that trackdoor is scum though, I still feel that he is town.
He basically said that Steveling was town because I'm mafia. He actually points that he has a rather high chance for him to being mafia, but no. He automatically treated him as town just because of me. He points no other reason. Doesn't that seem a little suspicious? And alderan: Show nested quote +On February 23 2012 22:16 zelblade wrote:
Alderan is another player that had given me town vibes with his inital posts. However, since then, he has gone lurk lurk quite a bit, posting very little content. I dont think that being against the DYH lynch adds any town points since he could easily be scum looking to gain some town cred. I also didnt really like his vote analysis as I felt that it was pretty inconclusive, although it is something to add against track. Could flip scum.
Again, same thing happens. He raises suspicion upon until he uses my name and and magically he uses that to give him a little more of credibility. He thinks that his points against me (which he already stated that is an easy case) are enough to counter weight the the vote analysis that he mentioned to finally give to a null/probably scum read. This is his case against me: + Show Spoiler +On February 23 2012 21:13 zelblade wrote:So it seems that vig shot has pushed us to MYLO. Well at the very least this shows us that mattchew's case is weak. I have read through the thread and various filters and I still think that trackd00r is definately our best option today. Trackdoor doesnt have any strong reads, nor does he actively push them. Looking through his filter, one can easily see that he has been sheeping all game long. He starts out by getting onto the ET wagon based on his "flashy and agressive" attitude. Afterwards, during the minutes leading up to the day 1 lynch, he propses Dimmuklok - using Aldrean's accusations as his base - as an alternative targert since we apparently couldnt get a lynch on either MG or ET. He than accuses DYH, before throwing out a weak (and never followed up) FOS on Aldrean, than goes back to voting for DoYouHas. After that he goes on to accuse hawkins after the mattchew case comes up. Look through his filter and you will notice that all his accusations are really SAFE. He hasnt called out anyone for anything unless someone else has already done it. He says that he doesnt like ET's behaviour, but only votes after I have done so. His pick for a day 1 lynch is a safe lurker. He pushes DYH day 2 after pretty much everyone has decided to lynch him. He FOS's Aldrean only after MG's case. He attacks hawkins only after mattchew's case. Even in there, he selects the easiest targert among the four - the one under the most scrunity - TKHawkins. Not to mention that his case is really weak, and even his read on Hawkins isnt a hard one. Notice how his only scum read coming into day 3 is Hawkins. This is proof that he hasnt been actively hunting scum. Just look at this post for example. Show nested quote +Uh, I think I didn't express myself correctly with that post
What I said is to wait if someone was going to replace him. If not, it would have been the removal of one player, since there are not any back up as I looked OP. In that case, it would be no point of voting for him
I will vote for him he is goes on. Here is why. I just don't feel like exhausting the case any further. At the rate we are going, he will be lynched next day.
But I insist that TK is probably being manipulated by his team mates by the way he is playing. This means that there has to be any kind of mastermind trying to direct his actions, like for example MidnightGladius. I've re-read DYH case on him and then looked at your defense to Matt, and I think things are making more sense now.
I'll post my thoughts about MG in a while.
As for zelblade, I can't get a good read of him. Checking his filter.
Even though, Mattchew reads town for me. My disapproval to his earlier posts was mostly because the way he presented the case and made it's presence. Now that I'm more calm, I actually see a very good guess he is making. Maybe perhaps there is more than a reason that TK is RQing.
I agree with his town reads, and I'm happy with the fact that he is constantly pushing his cases. If this continues, he can easily control the flow of the thread and can leave the mafia exposed. What he has here is simple. He has one scum read on Hawkins, and feels that MG could be a "mastermind" due to his interactions with hawkins. He is null on me. Town on Matt. Why, as town, would he have only ONE scum read coming into day 3? Why, as town, hasnt he been actively hunting down scum? Why is he being so flip-floppy about his reads? Notice how he promises his thoughts on MG and to read my filter. Notice how these thoughts never come. Instead, what has he done with his remaining time? Its goddammed MYLO and hes a viable lynch candidate. Why, is he not trying his best to prove his innocence at this point by getting his thoughts out? Instead, lets take a look at his gem of a last post. Show nested quote +Oh God... What a nightmare...
I'm not in the best shape to discuss, but this is what is going to happen. We are 4/6 mafia/town right now. There are two possible ways for the mafia to win this game right now.
1) Rushing and hoping to kill a townie at night 3. When they see a no-way-back target to lynch, they will jump to it and just wait for the kill. They'll try to keep all their effort to secure the mis lynch by leaving the target unable to defend himself back, such as ignoring any alternative candidates or keeping the focus closed. If they choose this way to end, surely they will be very active for a while, and suddenly escape out of the radar when they accomplished their goal.
2) Waiting an(-) extra day(s). Why do they do that you would ask? Mafia can't easily pull off their votes to a single target when there are multiple cases. The sudden jump on one of them will draw a notorious amount of suspicion by us and leave them exposed. So, they'll try to extend their voting range to many suspects with the following goals:
a) Not providing a proper direction to lynches.
b) Causing a no-lynch in order to disorganize us even more.
c) Leaving them with a cleaner background when switching votes the following days.
With this plan, they will probably be depending of night kills, so the medic in this case is crucial.
3) Sacrificing one of their members this night. It will give them credibility to push their agendas to secure a mislynch the next day, granted they made a successful kill the night before. I think that this possibility is the less probable to happen.
I feel that we need to watch out for every dangerous behavior present here that we can be facing. In (1) is constant pressure by them trying to get a lynch. In (2), it would be undecided voters and unclear opinions. (3) would be simply trying to find scumslips and contradictions.
Well, those are my thoughts right now. Comments? Oh wait. I forgot how many of you are convinced that I'm mafia, so I'm not expecting a good feedback from all this. sigh. What is the townie motivation - especially one on the chopping block at MYLO - to posting this? Instead of getting his suspisions out there, he goes ahead to discuss the ways mafia can win....? There is zero motivation for a townie who was on the road to getting mislynched and losing the game because of it to post something like this. Once again, I dont see why a townie at this stage would have the time to type up a load of crap regarding mafia stratergy yet not be able to make any sort of subsantial case against anyone. The numerous cases against trackd00r also add on to the fact that trackd0or is scum. Which is also why he gets my vote for today. ##Vote: trackd00r He says that I'm playing really safe and not actively trying to hunt scum. While this can be true at some extent, he has forgotten that I was one of the pushers of ET case along with him, blae and MG. It didn't materialize, but find that he doesn't recognizes my intentions with a lynch he wanted to get through. Regarding this accusation as well, he adds that the numerous cases that are around support my case. The only one I've seen were Steveling's and Mattchew, and he already said that Mattchew's case was horrible before:Show nested quote +On February 22 2012 17:47 zelblade wrote:
Mattchew's case is horrible. For those that think that all 4 of his scumteam are scum, read through it again. Do you really think that it is strong? Do you really think that it holds any basis? The links between us are, I emphasise non-exsistant. This is also why I believe that Mattchew is scum - and his recent posts have been shitting on the town atmosphere. Do you really think a townie would do that? Dont you find Mitchy's sureness of DYH flipping green suspisious?
As well dismissed it as weak just before starting my accusations. Show nested quote +On February 23 2012 21:13 zelblade wrote:
So it seems that vig shot has pushed us to MYLO. Well at the very least this shows us that mattchew's case is weak.
I find this very contradictory. I'm worried that he hasn't expressed this thoughts on Alderan this well. He has been playing with pretty much of the same flaws that I've been, and yet he can't make a solid read like mine. Overall I don't like the way he has been trying to push my case and how sees other as town because they think the same. Mafia has to think the same to win this game right? Wall of Text not relating to me
I have snipped out the part not relating to me since im not going to defend steve's or ald's actions.
Summing up my case into me "targerting your safe play" is a most lolzy summary of my case. Have you even read through it? I attack the fact that you have been sheeping, the fact that you have no scum reads coming into day 3, the fact that you bring no new content to the table, the fact that you havent been actively hunting scum, the fact that you are absolutely non-commital towards your reads, and finally the fact that you apparently didnt care for hunting scum at MYLO and would rather post mafia stratergy until heavily pushed. In case you didnt realise, this is exactly how scum plays - trying to not be in the spotlight whilst staying under the radar - something that your play has been.
And you even admit that you havent been actively trying to hunt scum. lol.
Your "defense" towards the sheep part has been a stellar "but i pushed ET wagon along with you!". I have pointed out that even though you were suspisious of ET, you actually wait for me to vote him first before getting on. Scum doesnt want to be put in the limelight after a mislynch, and you waiting for me to go on him is scummy to me. Even if we discount that, what other reads have you have had? You have done no other significant pushes, and aside from your current post, no hard accusations. Look at it. Even here, this "case" does not have a vote along with it. This clearly shows how flip-floppy his is being even at this critical juncture. I would expect a townie to push harder. His last sentence of "ET, gumshoe, Matt, Sl0osh, what do you think about this?" just makes it clear as day that he is testing the waters, seeing if he can gain any sort of push with his accusations, and is obviously waiting for someone to jump on before submitting his own vote. I am almost 100% sure that trackdoor would have immediatedly voted onto one of his targets once someone went on them.
And you dont even adress the rest of my points and instead go on to pick on the "numerous cases" part on my case. Mattchews case on you I have repetedly said is weak. No need to point it out. However, it is NOT a contradiction. I never referred to Matt's case when I said this. Stop trying to make up bullshit and actually attack my play if you want to attack me. It is not a contradiction, stop trying to paint it as one.
As for the other cases, I was pointing to steves and sloosh's short case. Numerous was perhaps a exaggeration, but you get the point.
Than you go on to say that Aldreans in similar to you. I havent gone through a proper look at his filter as of yet, but Im probably going to do so after you or matt hang and post my thoughts tomorrow, since we focus on one lynch at at time, and there are already 2 who I strongly believe to be scum on the way to be lynched. No point bringing up another case at this point.
Next lets look at his portion on Aldrean:
Now alderan. As you know, he has been very very lurkish these days. It's midweek, and I was expecting that he can show up more, as he stated before: Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 03:40 Alderan wrote:
I've got work today till 7 or 8 EST (weekdays are much better for me than weekends in terms of activity). Yet, I haven't seen much about him. He promised to do reads of me. These claims never materialized though. Show nested quote +My next post will be analysis of Trapd00r, which should give us a nudge in the right direction about which of these cases happened.
Trackd00r- Will post analysis in the next couple of hours, I'm afraid to clog up the thread prior to the vote though. So it might be at night or the beginning of day 3. Your absence has been really weird. When you post your case against me, you better not repeat some of the same obvious points that Steve and Zel have claimed, since I suppose you have been watching me from long before. It's that not the case, chances are that those two players already did the job for you. I was already suspicions about him before, and this adds up very well. Now, you all would ask, why you only focus in people accusing you? Because that's what we are risking, another mislynch. I'm pointing these facts to warn you that they are pushing hard to lynch me as a way to finish this game, when yet their arguments against me are not really convincing. I repeat, I'm trying to prevent a mislynch, and If I can afford a luxury, convince you that those 3 players are scum, which I'm pretty sure they are.
If you are so confident that I could build a case onto Aldrean using similar points, why the hell arent you doing it? You state that a case with the same substanse of mine can be built against Aldrean, yet you dont bother to build it. Instead, your "case" is a weak one, once again based mostly on links similar to Mattchew's. Im going to do you a favor and sum up your accusations against Aldrean and you can see for yourself how terrible they are.
1) He lurk.
2) No post case - applicable to you.
3) Repeats that lurk = wierd.
4) Wants case that brings new points - you dont bring up new points.
5) He has been OMGUSing (I think, cant really be sure who that last para is adressed to) - Im relatively sure this is untrue.
Note: I stand by my opinion that Aldrean is scum, but im just pointing out how terrible a case this is.
Did I also mention that the main crux of your entire case is based off links too? Look at what happened with the last one. If you are town it is wrong on at least 2 counts - and you really make another case with the same general basis, knowing how weak and unreliable such a type of case is?
You call my case unconvincing, but in reality it is yours that has no basis.
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Apparently dinner took a shorter time than expected.
Also now that who scum is becoming clear I find the scum plan to be pretty ballsy. Have Aldrean post some sort of inconclusive vote analysis, than have mattchew fake an eureka! moment before pushing a case with the potential of getting 2 easy chain mislynches. Bus track along with it to solidify the case, and perhaps giving them the chance to convince town that it was just one wrong read and that the rest of the case was good. Lol. Well played scum, but too bad your plan has fallen apart.
And we do need to consolidate our votes. I do believe that mafia are bussing track, and were intending to protect mattchew and use his "confirmed town" status to hang on to the endgame. Guess that he got greedy with the potential of ending it today and pushed the ET case though, and wanted to end it early in case of any wierd crap happening. I am certain that both are scum, but we cannot allow our votes to be split on them. I think that a mattchew lynch would be more valuable than a track one, since it seems that mafia has the intention to bus track hard, whilst aiming to keep matt alive. Might as well deny them that.
##unvote
##vote: Mattchew
In other news, I will actually be here for the lynch today since its a nice weekend morning and I wont be cropped up in school.
In other other news, rG needs to get in here and goddammed post. I dont see the reasoning for subbing into a game you dont intend to play. Hawkins seems to have really ragequitted from what I see. It seems likely that 2 modkills are coming up.... Which sucks big time since if they are both town we lost already. Hopefully one of them is the last scum though, which I find quite likely.
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I also need to go finish up some work so be away for a couple of hours. I will check back before going to sleep early so that I can wake up for the lynch. (Its 8am for me and I have a terribad habit of sleeping in till something like 1 on weekends... lol.)
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Also one more thing that I would heavily suggest.
We need to consolidate the lynch now. We have 2 excellent scum targerts today. Since rG and hawkins are apparently mia its going to be nigh on impossible to find a lynch today. If my hunch is right and one of them is scum, we need EVERY SINGLE TOWNIE on the same person. I would heavily suggest mattchew as the wagon seems to be halted by scum.
Winter Lynch time is coming, and we need to hit scum today. This is the game's critical turning point, and scum is trying their best to stop it. We need to unite, and we will, to push this lynch through, to get our first scum, and eventually finish this game in a town victory.
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Just woke up catching up...
Why arent the votes on mattchew being counted...?
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EPT
