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Ok. With the information that Zarepath is mafia, i don't think we should lynch either SacredSystem or CosmosXAM too soon, seeing as CosmosXAM was brought up as an alternative to FakePromise on day 1, which would be a pretty good thing to do to both make yourself look town by contributing original ideas, and have a lynch debate where both targets are town, which is an ideal situation for mafia to be in since they can easily honestly contribute (this might be an elaborate ruse, but i don't think so, it just feels like it would be pretty risky if Cosmos is mafia)
For SacredSystem, this all hangs on zelblades scumminess. If zelblade is Scum, he is defending zarepath Day2 by deflecting attention to SacredSystem. This is quite obvious. Since there was no other real defense attempted, this furthers my doubt of him, and thus greatly reduces the probability of SacredSystem being mafia.
Either way, i don't see any better target to lynch then zelblade at the moment. I might compile all doubts on him in a complete case.
We need to take a deep look at who voted late and/or reluctantly onto zarepath, there is probably scum amongst them. In line with my "zelblade is scum" theory, i think that the point when zelblade was forced to vote for zarepath is the point when mafia realised that they could not safe him. This makes people after him most suspicious, the list of those is:
Chocolate, Bromancipate, Simberto, Adam4167, balt11t. Now, i know that i am town. You all don't, but that should not hinder my analysis. Adam feels pretty towny to me, and balt11t is very suspicious, was suspicious before, and is in line to hopefully get shot tonight so we see how that feels. I think that both Bromancipate and Chocolate are very good targets for further investigation. Of course i am also open to investigation regarding me and will openly and transparently answer any questions you have, since i realise that my voting pattern looks pretty scummy. Sure, our forth mafia does not need to be part of that list, they could have decided to bus zarepath earlier, but i don't think that is the case.
On an other note, i think we can be reasonably sure that mafia does not have a godfather. If they had one, it would have been zarepath.
We can be pretty sure that DoYouHas is town, because if he is mafia, he is either absurdly stupid or has such an ingenious and risky scheme planned that we could probably better just lie down and die if it does not crumble on its own.
So, I will vote on zelblade again tomorrow, and i hope that this time we can get him lynched.
Also: WOOOOOO, dead mafia!
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Well, no. According to the rules, the mafia can choose their godfather day1, and i feel that if they had one, they would have chosen zarepath because he was very much in the spotlight, and especially with the attacks at the end of day1, i see zarepath as being one of the most likely persons to be rolechecked. Thus, if mafia has a godfather, there is a high probability that they would have chosen zarepath for that job. Anyways it is only something that a possible detective needs to worry about at the moment. Still being suspicious of town checks does sound like a good idea though, you are correct about that.
As to the roleblocker, we will have a much better idea of that at the end of the night. It will not be 100% certain in all cases, but whether or not balt11t dies and how he flips will give us a great deal of information on this subject. The only way to 100% confirm MidnightGladius is by both balt11t and someone else dieing tonight.
My hopes are that with a 4 start, mafia does not have any power roles, but that is only a hope.
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The strange smily above was actually 4 to 9, but apparently got smilified.
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Actually, i would really like to see how this night turns out before going hunting for the remaining scum. The result of the Midnight/Balt11t interaction is pretty important towards everything we do from here.
I don't think anyone at this point disagrees with a zelblade lynch. We should spent some time of day 3 very carefully analysing everything to make sure that we don't make a mistake here (We have got the time), but as i pointed out before, i don't think we do. However, if someone has a major complaint against that or wants to put forth another, better candidate, now would be a good time to do so.
If everything turns out as expected and both zelblade and balt11t are scum, my prime subjects for the forth one would be Bromancipate, Chocolate and maybe Adam4167. But i must say that i have not rigorously analysed this and this conclusion is mostly from my memory.
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Ok, i will respond to all suspicions in order, but this may take some time.
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On January 31 2012 08:01 Bromancipate wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2012 16:24 Simberto wrote:
Ok. With the information that Zarepath is mafia, i don't think we should lynch either SacredSystem or CosmosXAM too soon, seeing as CosmosXAM was brought up as an alternative to FakePromise on day 1, which would be a pretty good thing to do to both make yourself look town by contributing original ideas, and have a lynch debate where both targets are town, which is an ideal situation for mafia to be in since they can easily honestly contribute (this might be an elaborate ruse, but i don't think so, it just feels like it would be pretty risky if Cosmos is mafia)
For SacredSystem, this all hangs on zelblades scumminess. If zelblade is Scum, he is defending zarepath Day2 by deflecting attention to SacredSystem. This is quite obvious. Since there was no other real defense attempted, this furthers my doubt of him, and thus greatly reduces the probability of SacredSystem being mafia.
Either way, i don't see any better target to lynch then zelblade at the moment. I might compile all doubts on him in a complete case. Alright, there seems to be some suspicion on me which is fine. I would encourage people to read my filter (it's short) and let me know what you think. I will get to sl0osh in a moment. Sim this part of your post is a little weird to me. That first paragrpah is WIFOM with no conclusion. You say we shouldn't lynch Cosmos because you don't think that we could spot a mafia on Day 1? Explain.
No, that is absolutely not what i was saying. What i was doing was looking at the situation with the knowledge that Zarepath is mafia. Not every try to analyse mafia intentions is WIFOM. My conclusions was that under the knowledge that zarepath is mafia, I find it very likely that CosmosXAM is town. Not sure, but very likely. Thus, there are other people one should lynch other, more suspicious people first.
Bromancipate
SacredSystems alignment does not hang out zelblade's flip. I have made my feelings about zelblade clear and the same for SS. But just because zelblade targeted SS does not mean they are on opposite teams. Again in Newbie II mafia used exactly this tactic so that people would make the jump you just made. I repeat the flip of zelblade does not tell you wether SS is scum or not.
I believe he is based on his posting. But I don't think zelblade is scum. So if we do go ahead and lynch zelblade and he flips town, well that makes SS look bad in your eyes, which is fine with me. But don't drop suspicion of SS if zelblade turns out to be scum.
This is not what i was saying. What i said was that under the assumption that zelblade is scum, which i believe is true, it is unlikely that SacredSystem is Scum, too. Thus, the thing hanging on zelblades scumminess i meant is not SacredSystems alignment, but my argument in that paragraph. Also, the other point of that paragraph is that the only attempt to divert attention away from zarepath is zelblades aggression onto SacredSystem, which with the knowledge that Zarepath is mafia makes zelblade look scummy.
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On January 31 2012 12:56 slOosh wrote:
I read somewhere (Mafiascum) that people who congratulate medic saves (dunno why he assumed that it was medic not vet) are most likely mafia or the medic themselves. But since it is my first game I really didn't know if this was reliable or not.
Never did i assume that it was a medic over a vet. Also, i was very clear in stating that that knowledge is not something that should be put in the open. As to your point of my cautiousness and lowered activity over the weekend, this was mostly based on the way i was apparently played by mafia on day one, which made me much more suspicious of what i think. And i am always mentioning zelblade because i think he is mafia, but we always have a better target to go for with a lynch. I don't want him to get totally out of the spotlight again.
On January 31 2012 15:23 DoYouHas wrote:Simberto's FilterSimberto established himself early as someone that many of us trusted. He did this with his general activity level and his sincere efforts to focus on and pressure lurkers. What exactly did he do with his unquestioned position in the town? Very little. He has consistently thrown his suspicion on zelblade, but has never bothered to put together a strong, focused case or push hard. The closest he comes is this post + Show Spoiler +On January 28 2012 12:03 Simberto wrote:Hm, sadly, noone else seems to be online. Anyways, here is my conclusion. I would prefer if you try to look at how day 1 evolved with an open mind yourself before reading it to avoid confirmation bias, though. + Show Spoiler +I find the whole of day 1 interestingly consistent with a hypothesis of a mafia group consisting of zelbalde, SacredSystem, CosmosXAM and balt11tFakePromise, I feel as though saying that you are willing to take a 70% chance of killing an innocent man seems like you might have something to hide. Criminals tend to be fine with killing off innocent people, and you seem to fit that profile. Normal people would not be willing to take such a risk.
Zarepath's decision to lynch someone at random does sound like the calculated mind of a mobster. However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note
Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
Now, at day 1, mafia who just wanted to be completely comfortable in their own room suddenly got attacked by the first post, pretty randomly. Not really a problem, just need to assault the idea of a random lynch, and maybe attack some other person who is at hand. Now, they point a bit onto FakePromise. Zelblade tries to post something inconspicious to not be the person of interest anymore, and makes the "to town" slip: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
This puts him under scrutiny and into the spotlight. Anything he says now is constructed negatively. So mafia try again to push the spotlight onto someone else, the old target. My apologies for my absence since last night. School takes up quite a bit of my time, however, I have been able to watch the game develop, just not post.
As far as what I think, I believe FakePromise was extremely fast to agree with zarepath, almost too fast. He offered almost no grounds with his post, and agreed that a 70% chance of killing an innocent man might be worth it in the long run. The fact that he jumped so quickly to this conclusin in such a short amount of time makes him look suspicious as far as I am concerned. Now, we have one thing that i am not exactly sure of, which is Midnight attacking FakePromise, but maybe he really only want's to get lurkers to post.
I had yet to post because I was at school, sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion. But in my opinion even pressuring someone like that will be cause of an emotional and defensive response making them see even more likely to be right to lynch. I am completely against random lynches on the first day because the odds are just too small, you wouldnt bet your life on a 1/3 chance would you? That is the same stance I am taking here even on the chance we do kill a mafia in my opinion it comes at too great of a risk and we dont need to kill a townie only to have more killed in the night, that just brings our numbers too low to fast.
Now this by CosmosXAM, this is just weird. Doesn't it sound like he is not defending FakePromise, but actually zelblade? To me it does. Then, we have SacredSystem answering a question directed to CosmosXAM. If that is not scummy, i don't know what is. On January 26 2012 07:01 SacredSystem wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 06:53 zarepath wrote:
Right, we've moved on past random lynching.
Who do you think is suspicious? you and fakepromise you for coming up with random killing and fakepromise for agreeing with you And FakePromise comes up again. Note that up to this point, the spotlight was very much on zelblade only. CosmosXAM states the exact same thing afterwards, with the added OMGUS onto Chocolate. Now DoYouHas votes on zelblade, and instantly afterwards SacredSystem votes for FakePromise. Just look at it: Every time one of those four gets into trouble (zelblade and CosmosXAM), something from one of the others happens that redirects the thread towards FakePromise. As soon as Zarepath brings up Cosmos as an alternate lynch target, zelblade votes onto FakePromise. When they are equal on votes, balt11t very fastly votes for FakePromise to make him lead again. Now, take a look at the votes list. Interestingly enough, this team has votes 2, 4 and 6 on FakePromise. As i said before, 3 votes expected, and of course never vote in tandem to avoid suspicion. Now, i know that all of this hangs on zelblade being mafia, but this is my take on the situation at the moment. I would really like to hear what others think about it. which spreads the focus over 4 players. Hardly a post to get 1 person lynched over. And this is very common for Simberto. He has spread his suspicion around throughout this game. Just enough that he can justify voting for pretty much anyone, especially lurkers. Quoting all the posts where he does this would be cumbersome so here. (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
You are absolutely correct, i should have been more focussed. I mostly wrote everything i found suspicious into the thread, partly to further discussion and partly to make my complete stance clear, instead of focussing on one person, which would have been the smarter idea.
DoYouHas How has he used his voting? To flip-flop and bandwagon. Day1, first FakePromise, then CosmosXAM, then Zarepath, then back to Fakepromise. I'm not going to criticize for his early arguments against FakePromise, it doesn't distinguish him from the crowd. However, I think his 2 posts that contain the vote change from CosmosXAM to Zarepath and Zarepath back to Fakepromise are extremely interesting. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 09:26 Simberto wrote:
Very interesting. After reading this, and rereading Zarepaths filter 2 times, I can definitively see what you mean. Noticeable is that Zarepaths only real contribution was to defend FakePromise, which makes both of them extremely linked in my opinion.
If Zarepath should flip red, that would make FakePromise an almost 100% red too (while this does not necessarily work the other way around). Also that whole defense of FakePromise could really be the work of a frustrated mafia, too. And should he flip green, we need to take a VERY careful look at CosmosXAM and sloosh. I really dislike the way this case was built in the last minute, and the try to pull me on board beforehand, but i must admit that it seems like a strong case to me.
I will probably stay up a bit later tonight (this is far too interesting), so if we for some reason absolutely can't get a lynch onto Zarepath, i will change my vote to FakePromise. Please, everyone who wants to lynch Zarepath react as fast as possible, and everyone who does not want to do that, also react fast (and especially give reasons). We are running on limited time now, so i suggest that we concentrate on this one instead of half a dozen half-cases like we did before.
##unvote CosmosXAM
##vote Zarepath On January 27 2012 11:18 Simberto wrote:
Apparently, we won't get a lynch on zarepath in time, so i will change my vote back to FakePromise. At least this way we have one less lurker and absolute noncontributor. And if he flips red, we need to really take a look at zarepath. If he does not, we need to really reconsider our assumptions. I would suggest everyone with a vote on zarepath (or those random useless votes) to do the same, since voting ends in 45 minutes and we only have 4 of 7 needed votes on zarepath, while there are now 7 votes on FakePromise (which would be enough, but is not really safe).
##unvote Zarepath
##voteFakePromise The bolded part of the first post is some extremely flawed logic which only has the purpose of pushing a day2 FakePromise lynch even if zarepath is to die. I pointed out the flaw in this logic when it happened with this post, My Post. My post is ignored, and this same bad logic pops up when he switches his vote back to FakePromise, this time a green flip is supposed to mean that the case on zarepath is based on poor assumptions and he is also green. Italicized is Simberto's call to pile onto FakePromise which would have the dual function of making the lynch safe and masking bandwagoners, of which he is one.
Oh my, that really looks scummy with the knowledge that zarepath was red and fakepromise green, even to me. One important thing to notice, however, is that i was the first person to support the zarepath case with that post, and i sincerely hoped for more people to jump onto it. Then, when i noticed that we would not manage a vote for him (45 min before deadline there were 4 votes on zarepath), i changed to FakePromise because i was of the firm assumption that he, too, was a good lynch. I don't think anyone can really argue that he was one, either.
The rest is just me tripping into now-obvious mafia traps, which weren't that obvious at that point. Also, regarding the argument about the italicized part, one should notice that noone else jumped into it afterwards. You may now call this WIFOM, but it is really not. Sure, I was bandwagoning, but i really did not want to waste a day without a lynch when fakepromise was a perfectly good target.
DoYouHas Day2 his voting is equally strange when you look at the posts that go along with it. He starts with a vote against zelblade, yet again without a strong case to back it up. Neither does he try to make this case later. Then we get a little filler on the reasons to claim a hit and how to do it. And then we get these 2 strange posts preceding his vote switch to zarepath. + Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 02:04 Simberto wrote:
I think that for today, SacredSystem is not a very good lynch. I also still remain very, very suspicious of zelblade, and would really like to lynch him since so often stuff seems to lead towards him, like this Zarepath case does, too. Basically the moment the second Zarepath case appears, zelblade comes out of lurking and attacks SacredSystem (easy target), quickly reinforced by Zarepath himself.
This, in my opinion, makes the already strong case on zarepath stronger. There are also some more inconsistencies i noticed upon rereading the thread, but this could also be my confirmation bias speaking (which upon rereading day 1 seems to be pretty strong).
For the moment, to avoid falling into the same traps i did on day 1, i will keep my vote on zelblade for overall fishiness, but i won't be the reason the zarepath case fails unless something truly unexpected comes up.
I would also really like our friendly neighbourhood lurkers balt11t, bromancipate and chocolate to both post in this thread and cast their votes. On January 30 2012 07:27 Simberto wrote:
At this point, zarepath is dead. I must say that i am getting slightly suspicious of this action beacuse of the limited resistence it is met with. Either mafia has decided that he is unsafeable and don't want to invest to heavily in trying to defend him, or he is not really mafia.
Anyways the case is still pretty good, so we will see how he flips, and then go from there. My vote on zelblade is obviously useless at this point, so i will switch it over to zarepath, this way there are 9 people on him, so even if mafia decides to do something last-minute, they will still need to get 2 people of him. I also find it interesting how late people place their vote even though i though we wanted to place them as early as possible for transparency reasons. Not to mention balt11t being completely vanished and maybe even getting modkilled at this point.
##unvote zelblade
##vote zarepath This first post contains an outright error on top of being fishy. Zelblade's original attack on SacredSystem came before my announced suspicion on zarepath, and his original case on SacredSystem came out before my analysis of zarepath. Simberto is linking zelblade's guilt with zarepath's, just like he did with FakePromise. Then he states that my case against zarepath is strong, that his own logic only strengthens my case, and that he found more inconsistencies on top the ones I pointed out. And yet, this is not enough to get him to change his vote. This sounds to me like he is keeping his options open. In his second post he is switching his vote not because he has become more convinced of zarepath's guilt. Rather, he has become less convinced because of the lack of resistance to a zarepath lynch. Simberto cites the inevitability of a zarepath lynch and hops aboard in order to make it safe. Note that he never seems to display conviction in the guilt of the people he is voting for, with the possible exception of zelblade, but I think I have already explained the strangeness of that situation.
Note that all of this followed a case of yours in which you basically explained how i got completely played by mafia throughout the whole of Day1. I hope you see how i become more conscious about changing my vote afterwards, and don't want to be the influential factor again. Also, i was still convinced that zelblade was the better lynch, and thus left my vote on him to open up that avenue for others. But i should probably have made a better case against him. I felt like i hade made my reasons to believe that more clear in earlier posts, especially since zelblade seems to perfectly fit into every mafia group built up at that point. As to the error, you are correct. I am not sure how that happened, i was absolutely convinced that the chronology was differently, even upon reading it multiple times. I think i simply missed that first post and only noticed the one after yours.
DoYouHas Then there are Simberto's unexplained logical mistakes. I have already pointed out one of them where I tried to correct Simberto and was ignored. Another is a more recent exchange where Simberto was downplaying the likelihood of a godfather being in the game because zarepath had not been the godfather. Start of the Exchange Not only is this wrong, as I pointed out, but it is a message that zarepath also used. Show nested quote +Let me respond with a WIFOM of my own: in a game with 9 and 4, I don't know how likely it is that mafia get a Godfather. It is pretty clear to me that the likelihood of the mafia having a godfather has gone way up since MidnightGladius's shot was not roleblocked. As a town we know that we have at least 2 blue roles, this raises the chances of mafia having at least 1 non-goon role, and I think it is safe to say that it isn't a roleblocker.
I still stand by the reasoning that if mafia had a godfather, it would with high probability have been zarepath. I agree that mafia does not have a roleblocker, that is quite obvious now. If mafia has a powerrole, it is a godfather. And actually, the only person who needs to be interested in a godfather is a detective anyways, and upon rethinking it, if we have a detective in addition to those two blues we already know of, the mafia probably has a godfather too. Before, i ignored the fact that we would need a detective for a godfather to be relevant, and thought that us having two power roles would be a pretty fair offset for mafia being more populous then expected.
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I only have one e in my name.
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On January 31 2012 19:21 zelblade wrote:Alright took a look at simberto's filter. The points DYH makes are valid. Besides me and the lurkers(which are easy to attack without providing much reasoning), he has never pushed any1 else, and even with me, not made a strong case at all and pushed it. I think that DYH has summed up very well why Simberto is likely to flip scum. Also one thing that I feel is wierd: Show nested quote +Simberto
Just one thing i wanted to say: DoYouHas claiming having been shot at does not make him 100% town, even without a counterclaim. It could be a mafia ploy to get someone 100% trusted by not shooting at all. I don't think that this is what happened (it sounds pretty far-fetched), but one should still keep the possibility at the back of ones head.
It seems like he is attempting to be casting doubt onto DYH at this point. I understand this is a minor point, but i feel that it is really wierd.
Well, at that point everyone took his towniness as completely confirmed, when it was, in fact, not. I found it important to put that out to prevent people ignoring possibilities. I already responded to DoYouHas accusations above.
Anyway, I do think that it is likely that Simberto will flip scum. SS (or maybe chocolate) is probably the last scum.
##vote: Simberto
You are wrong about that. I am innocent, and will do anything necessary to prove it. I made some mistakes during day1, most of which consisted of being to easily influenced, and when i realised that afterwards (through the day2 zarepath case), i decided to be much more careful when posting and to be more sure of that what i am posting is what i myself actually think, and not me confirmation-biasing what someone else posted before. As a result, i posted less and less specific things. This is now being constructed as a scummy change of behaviour, when it really is the only logical way to react.
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On February 01 2012 00:38 slOosh wrote:To Simberto: Show nested quote +On January 31 2012 18:31 Simberto wrote:
Note that all of this followed a case of yours in which you basically explained how i got completely played by mafia throughout the whole of Day1. I hope you see how i become more conscious about changing my vote afterwards, and don't want to be the influential factor again. Also, i was still convinced that zelblade was the better lynch, and thus left my vote on him to open up that avenue for others. But i should probably have made a better case against him. I felt like i hade made my reasons to believe that more clear in earlier posts, especially since zelblade seems to perfectly fit into every mafia group built up at that point. As to the error, you are correct. I am not sure how that happened, i was absolutely convinced that the chronology was differently, even upon reading it multiple times. I think i simply missed that first post and only noticed the one after yours.
Could you explain what you mean by being the "influential factor"? I don't think you had a vote that decided the lynch or not, nor does it make sense that you don't want to be influential. Are you so scared of making mistakes that you fear influence?
As it turned out, during day1, i got abused by mafia to promote their lynches, as in the FakePromise vs CosmosXAMs case where i basically did exactly what they wanted me to. Thus, i became more careful and did not want to instantly jump onto any lynch that appeared when i was convinced that an other lynch might have been better. I feared that if i switch onto zarepath, others would follow without thinking, as it apparently happened during day1.
On an other note, it was my vote that decided the lynch on FakePromise vs a nolynch. Now, this might not be a necessarily good thing with hindsight, but i stand by my decision at that point in time that it was better to lynch FakePromise then nolynch with the information we had then.
Could you also explain what the purpose of "open[ing] up the avenue" is?
It's not like we aren't allowed to vote zelblade unless someone first votes him.
Not necessarily "not allowed", but still, people who would be inclined to vote zelblade are much more unlikely to do so if they notice that noone else is voting for him.
Show nested quote +On January 31 2012 20:02 Simberto wrote:
You are wrong about that. I am innocent, and will do anything necessary to prove it. I made some mistakes during day1, most of which consisted of being to easily influenced, and when i realised that afterwards (through the day2 zarepath case), i decided to be much more careful when posting and to be more sure of that what i am posting is what i myself actually think, and not me confirmation-biasing what someone else posted before. As a result, i posted less and less specific things. This is now being constructed as a scummy change of behaviour, when it really is the only logical way to react. How is it logical to post less transparently and clearly? I posted very clearly and it was great because others have pointed out logical fallacies in my thoughts, which is exactly what I welcome and want as a town. If you are so scared of being wrong and making mistakes, the logical response is putting everything out there and welcoming critique, not hiding it all.
It is logical to remove myself a bit from the spotlight when it turns out that I have been manipulated the whole time, AND I don't know who all the people manipulating me are. Also, apparently i was a good tool in manipulating the rest of town. Now, as a conclusion, while i tried to figure out who manipulates me which way, i can at least avoid spreading that manipulation further.
Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 04:00 Simberto wrote:On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote:
Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
Distraction + "to town", which is very suspicious, as zarepath pointed out, and I honestly thought this was a terrible typo since 1) I'm the one who noted that, and more importantly 2) zarepath never actually pointed anything about zelblade as his only justification was his random lynch process. But now .... it's not looking so good. I really want to hear your responses and explanations Simberto.
I seriously don't know what that is.
I assume that i was thinking about something else related to zarepath at that moment, and thus used the wrong name. I will look at that specific post in context to try to make sense of it.
So far, even though this will probably be called WIFOM even though it is not, why would i do that intentionally if i was mafia? I don't see any way that would make sense at all.
And if it is just a typo, i don't see how it would make me look any more or any less scummy, since i could have made that typo/being distracted if i was mafia just the way i made it now.
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Ok, after reading the context, i am even more confused. There is nothing there that could have made me think of zarepath. I think i just always thought that that post pointing out the "to town" was by zarepath, which would also explain why i thought him significantly less scummy than he actually was when rereading his filter, i thought he had contributed stuff, but apparently he did not.
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And to avoid this whole thing being to one-sided, i want to point out two significantly non-scummy things i did.
I was the first person to be suspicious of balt11t because of the way he attacked FakePromise, even though i should have followed that through after FakePromise flipped green. At least i hope that some of the suspicion that was on him is a result of that.
I was the first person to accept the day1 case against zarepath. At that point in time there was a very real chance that that case could succeed, and if it had succeeded, me supporting it might have very well been the deciding factor. Sure, it did not succeed, but that is not something i knew at that point in time, when there were still more then 2.5 hours on the clock. I only did change my vote away from zarepath when it became totally clear that there was no chance that we would get a lynch on him.
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On February 01 2012 03:14 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 01:09 Simberto wrote:
As it turned out, during day1, i got abused by mafia to promote their lynches, as in the FakePromise vs CosmosXAMs case where i basically did exactly what they wanted me to. Thus, i became more careful and did not want to instantly jump onto any lynch that appeared when i was convinced that an other lynch might have been better. I feared that if i switch onto zarepath, others would follow without thinking, as it apparently happened during day1. Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 01:09 Simberto wrote:On February 01 2012 00:38 slOosh wrote:
Could you also explain what the purpose of "open[ing] up the avenue" is?
It's not like we aren't allowed to vote zelblade unless someone first votes him.
Not necessarily "not allowed", but still, people who would be inclined to vote zelblade are much more unlikely to do so if they notice that noone else is voting for him. First you say that you fear voting as others would follow without reason. Then you actually go and vote early on without that fear on day 2. As most of your defense seems to be self-victimization right now, this is a glaring contradiction in your thoughts and actions. Glaring because you assert that you were "abused" and "manipulated" to explain your non-commital actions but then you go and do exactly what you said you were trying so hard to avoid.
I voted early on day 2 for exactly the reason i stated at that time, to avoid making voting such a last-minute action like it was day 1 and thus make it more logical and less impulsive. I am not doing that today because at the moment you are pretty focussed on me, so anything i would do to promote another lynch candidate is
Also, you are a bit wrong about the chronology. During most of the beginning of day2, i was actually pretty occupied and simply did not have enough time to really read into stuff and post something about it. Thus i could only answer to very obvious things when they came up when i found a minute to look at this thread on saturday morning and night. I was gone PnP roleplaying on saturday (this was organized over a forum, i will provide a link if you really want it and it is allowed), returned home late and got to sleep. After that period of time, which ended on sunday when i woke up, i reread the thread, the whole zarepath day 2 case was there, and i understood that i apparently had been pretty eager to do what mafia wanted me to do on day1.
Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 01:16 Simberto wrote:
Ok, after reading the context, i am even more confused. There is nothing there that could have made me think of zarepath. I think i just always thought that that post pointing out the "to town" was by zarepath, which would also explain why i thought him significantly less scummy than he actually was when rereading his filter, i thought he had contributed stuff, but apparently he did not. This is weak defense since you found a hypothetical thought that can explain the situation and then believe it. It is weak since you are the one who brings up the most WIFOMs and urges caution in everyone esp. with the DoYouHas' hit claim, yet your thinking process is "oh this thought explains my actions, so it must have been what I was thinking".
Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 01:24 Simberto wrote:
And to avoid this whole thing being to one-sided, i want to point out two significantly non-scummy things i did.
I was the first person to be suspicious of balt11t because of the way he attacked FakePromise, even though i should have followed that through after FakePromise flipped green. At least i hope that some of the suspicion that was on him is a result of that.
I was the first person to accept the day1 case against zarepath. At that point in time there was a very real chance that that case could succeed, and if it had succeeded, me supporting it might have very well been the deciding factor. Sure, it did not succeed, but that is not something i knew at that point in time, when there were still more then 2.5 hours on the clock. I only did change my vote away from zarepath when it became totally clear that there was no chance that we would get a lynch on him. You were suspicious of all the lurkers as were we. Being the first to do so doesn't really mean it is "significantly non-scummy". Honestly it was MidnightGladius who gets all the credit for pegging him with the vig shot. Everyone treated him as 2nd priority lurker. DoYouHas points out in his Zarepath case that I was slow in posting my case against Zarepath on day 1 that we did not have enough time to swing the vote. You are trying to claim credit for hypothetical situations. Since you claim not mafia and there are two remaining, beside Zelblade who do you think the last mafia is and why?
[/quote]
No, i was just stating that what i did day1 would have been incredibly if i were mafia, while it is completely reasonable since i am town.
I was explicitly avoiding to paint another target since that would only have been interpreted as a smokescreen anyways, and was pretty busy defending myself, so i do not have a good mafia read that i am convinced of. I will do that now.
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On February 01 2012 04:27 DoYouHas wrote:Ok, so Simberto agrees that his play did not favor the town day1. He also agrees that his voting looks really scummy now that we have the information we do. He hasn't explained away this typo + Show Spoiler +Distraction + "to town", which is very suspicious, as zarepath pointed out, and
I honestly don't see what i should explain regarding that. It was a typo. Either my mind was occupied with something else, or i honestly believed that zarepath was the one who pointed it out. It was not intentional, and thus i can not explain my intention behind it, because there was none. Also, i don't understand how that would even be any useful towards mafia goals if i were mafia
nor the flaws in the chronology in this post to my satisfaction.
As i said, i was honestly convinced that zelblades attack on SacredSystem came after your post. Apparently, if you read far too many filters you lose the context.
He says that my case against zarepath day2 convinced him of how manipulated he was day1, but by whom? Certainly not zelblade who barely posted anything. The only real answer is zarepath. So then why is Simberto holding his vote on zelblade as the 'fishier' candidate instead of moving onto zarepath? Or is this 'the devil made me do it' defense something that has only come up after my analysis of Simberto because this supposed manipulation has not informed any of his day2 decisions?
The answer to your rhetoric question is obviously zarepath. I was holding my vote on zelblade because there was no lack of votes on zarepath and i could switch my vote at any point (i even stated that i would switch to zarepath lynch if zelblade does not work in this post.) Also in that post i mention that i want to avoid falling in the same traps that i did on day 1, so this is not something that i just made up after the accusations today. I find it strange that you missed that after you apparently read my filter pretty exactly, i fear that you are falling into a confirmation bias trap at the moment.
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As for my scum reads, upon rereading the thread i noticed that there is some pretty hard lurking going on. Now, this might sound like an easy copout, but it is still true.
Now, this might also sound like picking an easy target given my situation, but of those, I think that Chocolate is almost definitively scum. He did not contribute anything, at all. This can easily checked by reading his filter, which has about the same proportions as that of balt11t now. I won't bother to quote these posts. There are simply almost no posts, and he only posts when he is absolutely forced to. Also, his posts do not contain anything at all. Note that even Adam who started one day and was not active for a long time, too, has more posts then Chocolate, and easily far more content.
I actually think that SacredSystem looks pretty clean at the moment, even though i do not really like his style of posting.
Adam is a bit strange due to lack of information, but certainly not someone one should lynch today.
Bromancipate is not really conclusive due to there being multiple persons behind that name, but i don't think he is mafia at the moment.
I am also still highly suspicious of zelblade, but i am getting to the point where i am asking myself if i am not just tunnelvisioning him. I will take a closer look on that.
Also, i will go to sleep in about an hour, so if you want an answer to any further questions today, please ask them soon, otherwise you will get it tomorrow.
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On February 01 2012 06:23 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 05:30 Simberto wrote:He says that my case against zarepath day2 convinced him of how manipulated he was day1, but by whom? Certainly not zelblade who barely posted anything. The only real answer is zarepath. So then why is Simberto holding his vote on zelblade as the 'fishier' candidate instead of moving onto zarepath? Or is this 'the devil made me do it' defense something that has only come up after my analysis of Simberto because this supposed manipulation has not informed any of his day2 decisions? The answer to your rhetoric question is obviously zarepath. I was holding my vote on zelblade because there was no lack of votes on zarepath and i could switch my vote at any point (i even stated that i would switch to zarepath lynch if zelblade does not work in this post.) Also in that post i mention that i want to avoid falling in the same traps that i did on day 1, so this is not something that i just made up after the accusations today. I find it strange that you missed that after you apparently read my filter pretty exactly, i fear that you are falling into a confirmation bias trap at the moment. The 'traps' you mention in that post is pretty clearly just confirmation bias, not the belief that you were being manipulated by mafia. SO, let me put this clearly. You state that I presented a strong case against zarepath, your own logic made it stronger, you found more inconsistencies in zarepath's posting than even I pointed out, AND apparently you were convinced that zarepath had manipulated you into anti-town action day1. How does this possibly fit with your actions day2? You don't bring up this manipulation theory, you don't add your own analysis to mine, and you don't switch your vote to someone who, by your own reasoning, is far more likely to be mafia than zelblade.
You are turning my words aroung in my mouth.
You presented a strong case against zarepath, my own logic made it stronger UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT ZELBLADE IS RED, and yes, i found more small breadcrumbs in his posts, like for example that baby thing that just made no sense at all I am just not convinced that adding up small breadcrumbs is a good way to find mafia, because you can do that against anyone. For example, i could easily find lots of small stuff against MidnightGladius who we now know is town.
Thus, adding more of that stuff would have turned an objective investigation into a witchhunt, which is really not something we as town want.
I was convinced that IF YOU ARE RIGHT, i was manipulated to lead the lynches during day 1. However, i still thought that the best way to test this was to lynch zelblade. The only thing my reasoning showed was that there is some cohesion between zarepath and zelblade, and zelblade already looked very scummy day 1, so i stated that i would rather lynch him then zarepath, and, more importantly, that i did not want to lynch someone based on someone else telling me to do so, rather then the person i myself thought of as the most scummy, since that was obviously something very wrong in my day1 play. Someone tells me someone else is fishy, i look at their filter and get confirmation bias. This was something i obviously wanted to avoid.
Also, i stated very clearly that i would not block a zarepath vote, but prefer one on zelblade. Thus, there was no need to change my vote at that point in time, my intention to vote was absolutely clear. I would vote upon whomever we can get a lynch on between zarepath and zelblade. The timing of that post was also just there because that happened to be when i got around to playing the game, even though you will probably use that as a reason that i am mafia anyways.
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Anyways, i am going to bed now. I hope that you guys look at this objectively and realise that i am not mafia instead of pushing each other higher and higher on this throughout the night.
Also, i am now posting my vote against Chocolate in line with my above reasoning, which i wanted to avoid since it will surely be turned against me as a distraction or something of the sorts.
##vote Chocolate
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On February 01 2012 07:54 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 06:08 Simberto wrote:
Now, this might also sound like picking an easy target given my situation, but of those, I think that Chocolate is almost definitively scum. He did not contribute anything, at all. This can easily checked by reading his filter, which has about the same proportions as that of balt11t now. I won't bother to quote these posts. There are simply almost no posts, and he only posts when he is absolutely forced to. Also, his posts do not contain anything at all. Note that even Adam who started one day and was not active for a long time, too, has more posts then Chocolate, and easily far more content.
Adam is a bit strange due to lack of information, but certainly not someone one should lynch today.
Hang on, whaaaat. I have 'far more content' then chocolate, but I'm still considered strange due to a lack of information? Isn't that contradicting yourself in the same post? I think you better take a hard-line opinion on me, or risk being labelled as wishy-washy or vague on top of the mounting case against you.
It is quite simple. You posted far more content then chocolate, because he posted barely any. However, you als did not post enough to make it a clear read for me. These two are not contradictionary, only because you posted more then someone else does not mean that you posted enough. I wrote it like that to point out exactly how small the amount of contribution by chocolate is.
Like this
Well, i don't know what i thought half a week ago. I know that that post does not make any sense, so i must have either simply put in the wrong name by accident, or at that point in time believed it is the right name. Should i make up some bullshit why putting that name there makes sense when it obviously does not?
I'm sure you can give us a more substantial answer than that.[/QUOTE]
No, i can't. I did not do it intentionally, it was an accident. I can speculate upon how it happened, but i can't give an exact answer because i don't know.
Also, apparently there is an explanation needed as to why i think that SacredSystem is more likely town. It was mostly an afterthought in the last post, so i didn't go into details, i will do that now.
He seems like a rather naive towny, but consistently so. What i mean with that is stuff like this:
[spoiler]
Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 15:45 zelblade wrote:
Does the mafia know the exact set-up? (What roles exsist, role-counts etc.) if he were mafia wouldnt he know? as of now i am really tempted to lean in favor of zelblade just being a noob like he claims to be
now my conclusion will heavily revolve around this post by zarepath Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote:
Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. why would a townesmen need to sink to that level to prove his innocence. Also if he were in fact a townie using the detectives powers on him would be a waste, the opportunity cost of displaying his innocence is huge therefore i will set aside all my other suspicions are claim that zarepath is very likely mafia he has shown a disturbing lack of town incentives, ie random lynch, not going after fakepromise, and his claim for self investigation
Show nested quote +On January 31 2012 03:32 SacredSystem wrote:
so im not on my computer im on my phone, so i wont write a giant write up, the attacks made on me seemd like they were organized, im pretty sure there seemed to be some team work going on between zelblade and zarepath,
their attacks seem like a giant smoke screen because they accuse me of using logic that other players were using as well, and this did make me very frustrated
i also would like to state that im sure zarepaths attacks on me would confirm my innocence, since inwas suspicious of him since day 1, so me bussing him doesnt seem very viable
i am reading all the posts, just to let yiu all know
after the fall of zarepath, adam would go on to claim that he no longer feels i am mafia and removes his suspicion of me, and then places it on zelblade and balt11t, balt as we know would later be shot and flip mafia, and if adam were mafia he wouldnt abandon his case on me to turn his attention to balt
Honestly, i could basically quote about half his filter here. It is always the same thing.
[spoiler]
He is basically always not thinking the second thought in the line, but also always is very convinced of his results, and follows them aggressively. At the beginning, he was rather inactive, but that has vastly improved throughout the game. This is also what most people criticize about him (next to his IM-style massacring of grammar). However, he is so consistent in this behaviour that it looks a lot more like he actually is new to the mindset mafia requires, rather then an incredibly good actor.
Also, i hate to be the one pointing this out, but has CosmosXAM completely vanished?
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Ok, i butchered that hard. I will try to get it in order and repost it for better readability.
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On February 01 2012 07:54 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 06:08 Simberto wrote:
Now, this might also sound like picking an easy target given my situation, but of those, I think that Chocolate is almost definitively scum. He did not contribute anything, at all. This can easily checked by reading his filter, which has about the same proportions as that of balt11t now. I won't bother to quote these posts. There are simply almost no posts, and he only posts when he is absolutely forced to. Also, his posts do not contain anything at all. Note that even Adam who started one day and was not active for a long time, too, has more posts then Chocolate, and easily far more content.
Adam is a bit strange due to lack of information, but certainly not someone one should lynch today.
Hang on, whaaaat. I have 'far more content' then chocolate, but I'm still considered strange due to a lack of information? Isn't that contradicting yourself in the same post? I think you better take a hard-line opinion on me, or risk being labelled as wishy-washy or vague on top of the mounting case against you.
It is quite simple. You posted far more content then chocolate, because he posted barely any. However, you als did not post enough to make it a clear read for me. These two are not contradictionary, only because you posted more then someone else does not mean that you posted enough. I wrote it like that to point out exactly how small the amount of contribution by chocolate is.
Like this Show nested quote +Well, i don't know what i thought half a week ago. I know that that post does not make any sense, so i must have either simply put in the wrong name by accident, or at that point in time believed it is the right name. Should i make up some bullshit why putting that name there makes sense when it obviously does not? I'm sure you can give us a more substantial answer than that.
No, i can't. I did not do it intentionally, it was an accident. I can speculate upon how it happened, but i can't give an exact answer because i don't know.
Also, apparently there is an explanation needed as to why i think that SacredSystem is more likely town. It was mostly an afterthought in the last post, so i didn't go into details, i will do that now.
He seems like a rather naive towny, but consistently so. What i mean with that is stuff like this:
+ Show Spoiler +Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 15:45 zelblade wrote:
Does the mafia know the exact set-up? (What roles exsist, role-counts etc.) if he were mafia wouldnt he know? as of now i am really tempted to lean in favor of zelblade just being a noob like he claims to be now my conclusion will heavily revolve around this post by zarepath Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote:
Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. why would a townesmen need to sink to that level to prove his innocence. Also if he were in fact a townie using the detectives powers on him would be a waste, the opportunity cost of displaying his innocence is huge therefore i will set aside all my other suspicions are claim that zarepath is very likely mafia he has shown a disturbing lack of town incentives, ie random lynch, not going after fakepromise, and his claim for self investigation Show nested quote +On January 31 2012 03:32 SacredSystem wrote:
so im not on my computer im on my phone, so i wont write a giant write up, the attacks made on me seemd like they were organized, im pretty sure there seemed to be some team work going on between zelblade and zarepath,
their attacks seem like a giant smoke screen because they accuse me of using logic that other players were using as well, and this did make me very frustrated
i also would like to state that im sure zarepaths attacks on me would confirm my innocence, since inwas suspicious of him since day 1, so me bussing him doesnt seem very viable
i am reading all the posts, just to let yiu all know
after the fall of zarepath, adam would go on to claim that he no longer feels i am mafia and removes his suspicion of me, and then places it on zelblade and balt11t, balt as we know would later be shot and flip mafia, and if adam were mafia he wouldnt abandon his case on me to turn his attention to balt
Honestly, i could basically quote about half his filter here. It is always the same thing.
He is basically always not thinking the second thought in the line, but also always is very convinced of his results, and follows them aggressively. At the beginning, he was rather inactive, but that has vastly improved throughout the game. This is also what most people criticize about him (next to his IM-style massacring of grammar). However, he is so consistent in this behaviour that it looks a lot more like he actually is new to the mindset mafia requires, rather then an incredibly good actor.
Also, i hate to be the one pointing this out, but has CosmosXAM completely vanished?
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EPT
