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On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote:
@Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back.
I did not ignore your question. I will however give you an up-dated opinion once Cookie posts the rest of his reads, so please wait until that. (I am waiting for it myself quite eagerly)
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EBWOP: Also see my other EBWOP near the end of page 10, I forgot to quote it as well.
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On January 05 2012 09:16 Jitsu wrote:
I will very much enjoy an updated opinion as well, after his new thing comes out. As for the moment, I will assume you are still suspicious of him as well.
My bad for formatting the message badly, I just re-read it and understood how easily it could be misunderstood. So I'll be more exact the next time I respond to a question of yours! But yeah, I will post my updated opinion as soon as possible. But I want to hear his new thing before claiming anything, since in all honesty I'm not entirely sure on my read on him at the moment.
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Okay everyone, I am back and catching up on the whole thread, re-reading everything a few times to be sure that I am not missing anything. I will soon be doing two bigger posts: One to respond against any accusations made on me & answering any possible questions, and another to share my analysis on every player (but myself).
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On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:CephiroYou are one smart SOB, but not smart enough Mr Scum. I am going to go slowly because you have a lot of posts and you look like your contributing, but when you look closely, you ain’t saying nothing! Your first post + Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.Also... Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? Sheth rightly pointed out the lack of content in this post. It looks great from a distance but says nothing. I point this out and you eventually play down the stats. More damning from my point of view is your support for Cookie’s first post. His post was way worse than mine, but you call me out and my stupid pun and support him? You still haven’t explained how what I wrote was a supposed “scum-slip” but it was enough to paint me suspicious straight up. In addition, you like Cookie go on about blue roles. This is a scum tactic, there is no reason for town to discuss the possible setup until we have information from the night events. Anything else risks outing blues, but you keep on about it.
As I already admit earlier, I did end up agreeing that the stats would not be useful in early game, which is why I didn't ramble on about them further. I do not agree with you on your claim that there would be NO reason for town to discuss the setup until information from night events. Why? Because even though we are all newbies, there may be people with more experience and others with less. This enables the more experienced players to ensure that if a total "idiot" townie would have got a power role, it wouldn't be misused.
Regarding your joke, I took it up to fish for reactions and give you a poke. I wanted to see if you would try to explain yourself more in-depth, or just regard it as a joke and excuse yourself not needing to analyze it any further. Which was fine for me, since I knew that message had no real meaning, I got what I wanted.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:11 CookieMaker wrote:
Okay townies... we are presented with a dilemma. Disadvantage #1: There are few (if any) roles in this game, making identity confirmation scarce.
However, that being said, the significant advantage we have over the mafia is their lack of killing power. They are only going to be able to snipe (at most, with any luck we got a doc) one person each night. This means the pressure is really going to be on them to avoid being lynched. I urge you, when voting time comes, do your homework, and proofread the homework of others carefully. Rash vote swings by emotional players only help the scum hide on their bandwagons.
I am making an assumption here, but the other likely advantage we possess is the experience of a few key players. I'd be absolutely shocked if all three mafiasifarians were players who had (lots of) prior experience playing, but I'd also be surprised if they were three complete newbies. My impression is that one mafia will be a strong player and will deftly manipulate and lead the other two.
So this is the first day. I elect #thefirstpersontocomeupwithaplan for mayor
Why should I not support this post? In my opinion it provides a few basic, yet good points for people to remember. I do agree the latter part is just fluffy theorycrafting about someone leading the mafia, that doesn't really matter.
To compare, this is your first post:
+ Show Spoiler +Probalous wrote on January 04 2012 10:12
I expect great things from those that have played before. It seems fair to me that they should be expected to contribute. Of course, everyone should be actively contributing, but I will be really disapointed if the guys who have played don't put in the effort. You know the cost and will be held accountable.
With this in mind can the following people let me know how many (if any) games they have played?
Jitsu
Xeris
Gretorp
Gonzaw
This is my first game and I intend to win. Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood!
I bolded the single only thing in your post that wasn't just fluff talking. There's not really a big difference if the guys have played 0 games or up to 1-2. But fine, I'm not blaming you for wanting to know, since it may be part of your strategy on making reads.
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:
Then comes a nice filler post
+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:54 Cephiro wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:49 AnxiousHippo wrote:
I'm pretty sure scum are sometimes referred to as Reds, I guess he was trying to make a pun? I don't think it was a slip. Myeah, You're probably right, since as I said, I wouldn't expect even a newbie mafia slip this early. Gotta be careful about puns though, they could be misunderstood. Even though it actually could be good scumbaiting, fishing for the player's reactions for better reads?Well, in any case we'll have to get some discussion going on. Or random accusations to get people to talk. (Or maybe I'm just too eager regardless of the fact I know most people in Europe won't be awake at a time like this.)
I admit, this post doesn't have much content. If you didn't notice, you totally ignored my question (bolded) here. May I know for what reason? You are claiming me for having contentless posts at start, yet you should just see some of yours again.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:
There is no mayor and that is big assumption given this is a specifically newbie game with everyone on less than 3 games. To me, it is more reasonable that nobody is an assumed strong player and we will find out who are, as we go along. Of course previous experience is useful for setting activity expectations but deciding on scum targets based on possible non-random allocation is a big reach. I don't like it.
Anyone that reads the rules knows there is no mayor. + The rest of the post is just your opinions about assumptions that are totally useless.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote:
Lovely maths, does it say anything
For one Mafia cannot have a roleblocker with no town power roles. The only setup with a roleblocker is one where we have both a medic and DT. Secondly, the maths doesn't help us actually do anything, unless there is something I am missing.
Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town.
Yes it was a bad pun, I am not sure how it could be a scum tell. So much for trying to be entertaining
You join in the so-called useless power role discussion, yet you are providing false information about the setups yourself. That could easily be trying mafia to mislead, but in all honesty, I think you just did a newbie mistake which could happen to anyone. My point being: Try not to be too eager to call others on mistakes you have done yourself.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 11:38 Probulous wrote:
I agree with this. It is also why we need everyone to post. We can't catch scum if they say nothing.
Sheth, you finished dinner yet?
Gretorp, Cats are you guys around?
Blurry and Cephiro, thanks for staying up so late.
Were you talking about fillers...?
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:Your response to my question about what purpose the stats offer is + Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 11:21 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote:Lovely maths, does it say anything  For one Mafia cannot have a roleblocker with no town power roles. The only setup with a roleblocker is one where we have both a medic and DT. Secondly, the maths doesn't help us actually do anything, unless there is something I am missing. Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Yes it was a bad pun, I am not sure how it could be a scum tell. So much for trying to be entertaining  Well, it was mainly some statistics to prove how the situation is better for town in case the mafia has a role blocker and we have power roles.Also, there is a set up which contains both power roles (DT+Medic for town), and the mafia roleblocker. You can check the opening post for the 4 possible setups. I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage. And even if we don't, it will raise much more discussion and easier reads depending on who has been voting for who and so on. Again I pressure you on what purpose the stats offer and you finally agree that it means nothing.
Nothing but fairly decent? I don't get you...
And after this, as you pressure me on the usefulness of the stats, I finally realize that they aren't that useful earlygame, so after this I stop theorycrafting until later on.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 11:44 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:27 Probulous wrote:My bad, I missed the second one in the list So essentially, there is a 50/50 chance of every role. How is this useful? I don't see how speculating over power roles helps. They don't change how we play. You still have to actively scum hunt and call out bullshit. Once someone claims or the night actions become apparent this info may be useful, but I don't like the idea of discussing it now.What do you want to do today? I am happy prodding people to post and then checking their response. Voting for those not contributing. Heh, such happens. But yeah, the statistics won't be very useful yet, but they are good to know anyway. (I study statistics at uni, and I love to try and apply them into everything.) I am quite sure it will become useful sooner or later, especially if we get the chance of backtracking roles. What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted. I would like us to be able to raise enough discussion and get a decent shot at who could be scum, since 2 mafia versus 8-9 townies (depending on if one dies N1 or not) would be an incredibly good situation for us. CookieMaker has a good point though, there is a 50% chance that there is a DT in the game, and buying him time to find the scum isn't a bad idea either. But we can't be certain if there is one or not, which why I'm still slightly favour for trying to lynch scum today, at least for now. We have quite a bit of time on us though, so if it seems like we can't get good reads on anyone and it's just a huge mess, we can still go for the no-lynch.Also, no problem for staying up late, I'm very bad at sleeping early and I'm so excited to play my first game of Forum Mafia! I will be going to sleep in 20 minutes or so though.
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:
But then you go again about the setup. If the stats of the setup mean nothing, than the setup itself means nothing. We cannot get any info from discussing it until we have night actions.
These posts are long but you haven’t actually said anything. You look like your contributing but you aren’t.
Going on about the setup? Not really, I only mention the possibility of buying a possible DT more time, not going on about setups further than that. I am not contributing anything? I bold my statement which is along the lines of my original post.
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:Your last post of the night was + Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 12:21 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 12:11 gonzaw wrote:So this is your first forum game ever? Not just first game on TL? You seem to know quite a bit about the game though, may explain why? Also, I'm fairly good with statistics/probabilities myself (just ask Jackal58), and I use them fairly in mafia games. If the situation arises, it can be very helpful, as long as everything in the game is RNGed. I assume this setup is RNGed, right? On January 04 2012 12:06 Probulous wrote:
That is a good point Jitsu.
As I have stated, I am aiming for a mafia lynch. Only if I believe that we are headed for a miss-lynch will I advocate a no-lynch.
Again, where are the other US guys?
Sheth, Gretorp? You're asking for a vote. The day is 48 horus long, right? I would suggest pressure voting lurkers/inactives after 24 hours or so are past. Although I don't know if you guys do that here or not. Yeah, it's my first forum game ever. Haven't played this anywhere else either. I've read through quite a bunch of advanced games on different forums though, and I generally consider myself good at mindgames or understanding what people think / why they do something etc. So I'm really excited to see if it's correlates to success in here. Yeah, you heard right, watch out mafia! I am going to sleep now though. I will re-read the thread (especially the new posts) a few times once I wake up and will try to join in as much as I can. If you have a hard time of trying to find out who is scum, then please do the town a favor and at least try to find some most-likely-town reads, since even that will help us narrow down the possible lynch. I do agree that we could pressure vote lurkers/inactives later on in D1, hopefully forcing them to defend themselves and give us better reads. Is there anything in there that helps town to catch scum? The only thing you say is that if you can’t catch scum, try and prove people are town, but of course you don’t do anything like that do you? Wishy-washy trash.
How on earth can you claim this post is just wishy-washy trash? The first part may be, but it's because I answered Gonzaw's question about how I seem to know about the game. Why should I have left it unanswered? Nope, there is no reason why I should've skipped that. So don't blame it as wishy-washy trash. Skipping genuine questions would just wake up suspicisions, and why would I want that as a townie?
Also, of course I wouldn't do anything like that, what is that bullshit? I was the first person to share all my reads. You certainly weren't.
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On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:
Now my personal favourite, your analysis. I will you credit for being the first person to post one but god damn you could not have done a worse job. I am going to go through each person and see how wrong you can be.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List:
1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:
You lean town because ” But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game” Earth to Cephiro, it is everyone’s first (second or third) game. That is no excuse. Essentially you are saying that you disagree with everything he says but think he is town because this is his first game?
BAD Cephiro!
You do realize that different persons react differently under pressure? If we put 10 persons in a situation none of them has ever been in, I can assure you that they will not react the same way. And my thinking here is that CM would be the type of person that would react in such a way. I can admit that's quite a long shot, but it's my read. I at no point said I disagree with everything he said, so you are putting words into my mouth here. Bad Probulous!
+ Show Spoiler +2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:
At this point he had done more than Cookie. He had attempted to out scum by pressuring Cats. A point you recognize. I want you to read this again and again an try tell me why a town would say this
” Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content?”
Sheth had a reason, he made it clear. Cats was being non-commital. Even if he had not reason, pressure outs people. It is always good at this stage of the game. For this you paint him less town than Cookie AND slightly scummy?
BAD Cephiro!
Maybe he had done more in your opinion. My opinion was that the only useful thing he had done (at that point), was that he had only pressured the new player, and then letting him off the hook just like that. The way he did it semt scummy to me, got a problem with that? I am just telling my genuine reads, don't like them, convince me otherwise. I was the first one to show everyone all my cards at that point, because I wanted to raise discussion. On the other hand, all you did is sat back and waited for everyone to talk, and came in with a huge-ass post later yourself. You left the scene since you were satisfied of most people considering you pro-town, and you slipped under pretty much everyone's radar, not many people were wondering why you weren't taking part in discussion. And when you came with your huge scumpost, all you did was provide very short explanation why you think some people are town, then stating "These are just neutral to me, that's it", and then moving all the attention into your huge scumpost. Effectively focusing everyone on your scumpost, and turning the attention away from yourself, to ensure people don't change their townread about you, but concentrate on believing on your accusations.
+ Show Spoiler +3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:¨
I’m fine with this
Nothing to comment here.
+ Show Spoiler +5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:
Cephiro, Cephiro, I know you wanted to speak but damn, Tunkeg has had the best posting yet. Much better than yours.
You even say
” Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points.”
Voting for a lurker is pressuring them to participate. Sure it may have been a safe move, but you can’t say shit since you haven’t even voted yet. You cast doubt on how successful his pressuring will be but don’t offer anything else. In essence you are undermining his methods which you even admit that “He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on”
Please try and explain why a townie would try and discredit the way someone is trying to out scum without offering an alternative? Any effort is good effort and all your “analysis” does is undermine Tunkeg. You have no proof for why he might be scummy other than his aggressiveness but even that you say is because he wants to start discussion. You admit you have nothing on him, so why cast doubt on his methods?
BAD Cephiro!
Safe move yes, but why should I not be allowed to say that aloud? You're not any better at this point, having posted far less content than me, waiting for your town-saving newspost. So you can't go aggressive on me for not voting at this point either, unless you admit your play was even worse. I am here also giving my genuine reads, I am not trying to undermine him in any way, I just posted my feeling about his methods. Should I have said bullshit such as "I think what he does is awesome", if I didn't really think so? I gave him a neutral read back then.
+ Show Spoiler +6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:
Good lordy, he was the first person to pressure Cookie about the stupidity of advocating a no-lynch. That is a damn site more than you have done and far and beyond Cookie, but no Cookie is slightly town but Jitsu is null?
BAD Cephiro!
He had posted against the no-lynch in general, and called out on Hippo and Cookie in _ONE_ post by this point, which wasn't enough for me to get a solid read on him. If I am unsure, why should I not admit it? I also wanted to make him post more, so I was trying to provoke him with my claim of "Hasn't posted any actual content other than that". Which he then replied he has his reasons for.
+ Show Spoiler +7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:
Fine with these.
Nothing to see here.
+ Show Spoiler +9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:This is where you sunk your ship. I agree that Gonz is town but put these two quotes together Show nested quote + Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Show nested quote + Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here You give the first a slight scum/neutral read and the second a town read. BAD Cephiro!
Gonz and Tunkeg had very different playstyle in my opinion. Here you are putting words into my mouth again, which I am finding quote offending at this point, trying to make look worse than what I am. The first was a statement considering taking the first vote, and Tunkeg didn't encourage others to pressure vote at this point even though he did so himself, unlike Gonz who also suggested others to do that. There is a difference between doing something yourself and encouraging others to do it as well. The difference in their playstyle and between keeping the pressure voting to himself/encouraging it to everyone was the main reason I ended up reading Tunkeg as neutral and Gonz as town at this point.
+ Show Spoiler +10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:
Fine with these (obviously).
Nothing to comment here.
+ Show Spoiler +12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:This says nothing about Cats at all. You say one thing then produce a nice WIFOM to discredit what you just said. You actually say anything about him at all. Show nested quote +I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Whatever man, you are heading for a lynch ## Vote Cephiro
I'll admit that I did not analyse CatsnHats in the same way as others, I ended up concentrating too much telling him what he should do in my opinion. This was partly affected by the fact that I still thought he was too wishy-washy even after Sheth's early pressure, and I wanted to make sure that for example Sheth wouldn't get a grip on him, since I had Sheth as slightly scum at this point.
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(Third post following up in a moment, after that trying to get my reads posted asap.)
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Probulous wrote:
Thanks for nailing the coffin.
In the same post, the very same post, you quote Jitsu as explaining your thinking clearly and then says he is suspicious because his content is fluffy? Surely, a normal logical response is just to ask Jitsu to provide more thinking, because what he has provided has been useful.
Instead you cast doubt on him. Either you think he is suspicious and act on it, or you don't and act on it. Here you do neither, you give and take in the same post. The irony is that you berate Cats for not taking a stand but you do exactly the same thing.
Here you totally disregard my post earlier about how I answered Jitsu's question, not blaming him. Did you do that on purpose?
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Hes being so completely passive and neutral.
Are you kidding me? Look at your own posts.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
He is just following "people providing good reasoning".
I am certainly not following anyone in this game, but if someone notices a very valid point that I don't, which I agree with, why shouldn't I change my opinion? It would be idiotic to play this game by your first-post-reads about everyone. This game is constantly changing, and you need to understand that.
Also, you are accusing ME of following, when what you did is dropped the case against me altogether, and jumped on the bandwagon right after Probulous has posted his analysis. Are you sure you aren't talking about yourself?
Probulous wrote:
Think about it carefully, I have pushed my case based on his posts. If I am wrong, what does that tell you? Nothing! I have exactly the same information as anyone else. You don't like my analysis, show me why, but Cephiro's impending lynch says bugger all about my alignment.
Trying to make yourself look innocent after going full speed with the Cephiro-train? That is such an outright lie. You are being so eager on lynching me and don't seem to be considering anything else to the slightest, and you say that would provide no information if I flipped town? For me, that would certainly look like a mafia player wanting to get an active town player out asap.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
And as for your analysis, well I'm showing here why your analysis that his flip won't tell us anything. In honesty if he flips town, it makes you look a lot more like mafia. And if he flips Mafia it makes you look a lot more like town. For those reasons below. If hes town I'm under the same thing and maybe were mafia buddies starting a train on a poor little townie.
Is it just me or are you contradicting yourself when talking about my possible flip? You're saying it wouldn't tell us anything and then you are saying it will cause the other side to look like mafia.... Just... what?
Probulous wrote:
I know this isn't scum-hunting but I have done a lot already so forgive me for this diversion. In short, no. If my analysis is good, and Cephiro turns out to be town, that means that Cephiro was a very scummy town. Right? It does not mean that I am mafia. I could be, but I could also be a town pushing who I think is mafia. How do you tell the difference?
By the quality of the analysis. The same is true if he flips mafia, I agree it is unlikely that mafia would bus day 1. However, they could, the point being speculating about it gives us nothing. In my land, townie cred only exists from the scum you find. If I put together a thorough analysis on someone and they flip town, go back and read my analysis. Was I pushing something too far, was I focusing on some small irrelevant detail? That gives you clues to my alignment, not whether he flips green or red.
IF your analysis is good. What if you're making a huge mistake? You are claiming that if I flip town, I was a very scummy town, only based on your fine analysis. You're just keeping trying to convince people about how you are not mafia or how they can't tell if you're mafia or not if I flip town. Goddamnit, stand up for yourself and admit you are certainly not looking too good when I would flip green in a lynch.
"In your land" Well, this isn't your land, and neither is your analysis the only book of law we go by with. I'm still concerned by the fact that you aren't sharing any of your reads except the ones you claim to be scum.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Ok, because we have two good reads on scum CatsNHats and Cephiro, I'd like to talk about something else until they come back. There is a chance there is a detective. There is a chance there is a medic.
If you are the detective, you should NOT choose the person who you think will die during the night. You should pick someone who you'd like to know about and isn't likely to be killed soon, and who would really help town to know about.
If you are the medic, you should choose the few people who you think mafia might want dead on this night and WIFOM in between them. However this night you have an advantage, and you might for future nights as well. Mafia isn't sure you exist. The best % they have is that if they have a roleblocker, there's a 50% chance you exist. Because of this, I'd recommend if you exist simply use your ability on who you think is the most townie.
Also, if you've found one mafia you should come out in the open and tell us about it. There are other situations where either medic or detective should come out, such as if you know 3 confirmed town and were nearing LYLO. Use your best judgement on those situations. Does everyone agree that if you find a mafia the detective should come out with them?
At the start you discredit my statistics post, but a bit later on your start talking about power roles yourself? If you find a mafia you should come out in the open and tell it? Sheesh, could you be any more obvious mafia trying to fish out the players with power roles?
CatsnHats wrote:
Yeah I know I look scummy. People are holding my first two newb posts against me and it's clouding their judgement on the rest of my play. At this point in the game Cephiro is definitely more scummy than Gretorp, especially in light of Gretorp promising a long post and his being at work all day. If he follows through it would alleviate a lot of my concerns with him
Jumping on a bandwagon to save yourself scum? Did Gretorp ever give you that long post?
CatsnHats wrote:
I just getting all the possibilities out there, and I said that you all being mafia was low probability, so if anything that would be taking suspicion from you. As I have said before from the beginning, my third (albeit a distant one relative to the others) at the moment is Xeris due to his no-lynch posts, lurking, and non-responses to player questions. He has left very little material to go on, but that is my third for now. For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris. I could see Xeris dropping off this list though when he, Gretorp, AH, Blurry, and others post again.
Moar bandwagon, you are just blindly convinced by everything Probulous said trying to hide and save your own scummy ass.
Xeris wrote:
Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly.
Still no posts after this, wants a no-lynch (Free kills for mafia anyone?), but at least he isn't jumping on bandwagons blindly unlike some others.
Jitsu wrote:
Also, there is a point where you are jumping back and forth between a miss-lynch and no-lynch policy
I have been true to my first post statement the whole game, we NEED to lynch someone on day 1.
"I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage."
If you mean that, it was in response to CookieMaker's posts, since he was actively pushing for no-lynch at start. That I am not convinced on a no-lynch equals to I am not in favour of it.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I guess I should have brought all of this up earlier, but I thought Prob's post was good enough to get us lynching him.
Again, not continuing your pressure, but letting someone do the dirty work for you. What on earth are you doing Sheth, at first you tell everyone that they should not trust you or anyone else, but think for themselves, and now you're bandwagoning hardcore.
Probulous wrote:
AS you point out Ceph pops into the thread and then disapears, we have less than 2 hrs to lynch, why do this?
Considering your wall-of-text, you should know that it's not exactly a fast thing to compose a defense against all your accusations, especially if I want it to be in a readable format. What did you do yourself during the first 24 hours? Stick around for the start, come back after everyone else has provided enough content so you can make your analysis.
Probulous wrote:
Point to something useful in that post.
You are still trying to discredit the whole post because I answered gonz's question about my experience in Mafia, trying to claim it's just fluff. Answering other players' questions is not fluff. If you didn't notice,
"What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted."
Which you seem to totally ignore.
Reading through last page now and answering any possible posts that have come up in the meanwhile.
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Placeholder vote since I am quite sure I will not have enough time to convince the town on lynching someone else, sorry AKCT. :/
If there are some specific points anyone of you want me to answer, please point them out now.
##Vote A Killer Cuppa Tea
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On January 06 2012 08:23 Probulous wrote:
Two questions Ceph
Would you vote for AKCT?
From that post you think Sheth, Cats and myself are scum? Is that right? I don't want to put words in your mouth again so please label the three scum for me.
Thanks for coming out guns blazing.
Voted for AKCT. We need to get a lynch today.
This will be a short post since I don't think I will have time for a full analysis, but at the moment the top-3 scumreads (in no particular order) for me are:
Liquid`Sheth, CatsnHats, Gretorp.
I am fairly sure that one of the lurkers is scum, even though I could be wrong. Gretorp has promised analysis twice, but nothing so far. Even though I do not like Xeris's overly safe play, I find Gretorp more scum than him at the moment.
I was thinking about building a bigger case against you, since you seemed to go for me so aggressively, but even if I would like to see more of your reads on others, I think you have a reason to keep them to yourself for now, and you're just trying to pressure the hell out of who you think are scum. So I'm actually leaning town on you.
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On January 06 2012 08:38 AnxiousHippo wrote:
Votecount?
If I am not mistaken:
A Killer Cuppa Tea (9): Gonzaw, Tunkeg, Blurry, Probulous, Cephiro, CatsnHats, Liquid`Sheth, Jitsu, AnxiousHippo
Should be relatively safe if everyone sticks to their votes, since the current vote would need 3 members to drop off to force a no-lynch (if none of the inactives post their votes.)
And I think it would be quite a dumb move from mafia to pull all three members to force a no-lynch on the first day, so I doubt that is going to happen.
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In the meanwhile of waiting the lynch getting closer...
All of the following are by CatsnHats:
If Cephiro won't analyze himself, I will. You've advocated lynching from the beginning and have added a lot of original content in the way of statistics and your recent D1 analysis. And even though you admitted earlier that you consider yourself good at mindgames, I still have a town read on you for now.
RE: CookieMaker
Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with.
After Probu's analysis:
Yeah I know I look scummy. People are holding my first two newb posts against me and it's clouding their judgement on the rest of my play. At this point in the game Cephiro is definitely more scummy than Gretorp, especially in light of Gretorp promising a long post and his being at work all day. If he follows through it would alleviate a lot of my concerns with him.
I just getting all the possibilities out there, and I said that you all being mafia was low probability, so if anything that would be taking suspicion from you. As I have said before from the beginning, my third (albeit a distant one relative to the others) at the moment is Xeris due to his no-lynch posts, lurking, and non-responses to player questions. He has left very little material to go on, but that is my third for now. For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris. I could see Xeris dropping off this list though when he, Gretorp, AH, Blurry, and others post again.
Two first seem like bandwagoning to anyone? Not to mention Xeris, even though he at any point didn't really get votes on him.
Why aren't you suddenly totally okay with Gretorp? Because Probu was neutral on him?
And to Gretorp: seriously where is your promised long analysis post/contribution? Don't think I've haven't forgotten. We're going to need everyone's contributions if we're going to rid the town of scum, so start POSTING.
How convinient that you posted that, RIGHT AFTER I had pointed that out. (First post of this page)
Take those 3 away, and what do you have? Gretorp, Xeris, and Cookie.
Wow, I certainly dropped off your scumlist quickly after people started to agree on lynching Cookie/Tea.
Or was I simply that convincing also?
It seems to me that you are just changing your mind A LOT, but all your reasoning seems to be based on other players analysis.
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On January 06 2012 08:58 Probulous wrote:
I agree that Xeris, and Gretorp are looking bad, but that is mainly due to inactivity. At this rate they will be mod-killed for lack of a vote.
You want more reads from me, fine, I will take a closer look at Sheth.
Jitsu and Tunk are definitely town and I think Hippo is an unsure newbie town. Gonz is looking more green as time goes on.
That leaves Blurry, Xeris, Gretorp and Sheth. The first three have posted virtually nothing, so Sheth it is.
Do the others a favour and post your case on me. No-one else seems willing to do it. I know I am town but the others seem to have accepted it without question.
Thank you, I appriciate that you're ready to share more of your reads.
I re-read the rules and couldn't find a mention if we are allowed to post in the night phase. If we are, I will post my case then, otherwise I will post it as D2 starts. Simply because I don't have enough time (50 minutes), to comply a convincing analysis on you at the moment, even with all the information I already have.
I am going to sleep right after the lynch is made, which is 3 AM my time. My sleeping rhythm is fucked up enough as is.
Mind you, the original case was supposed to be much more aggressive and scum-blaming (before I had time to re-read and think about it more.), but I am going to base the analysis on my current read on you. (Because going back into a previous mindstate would be weird.)
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On January 06 2012 10:02 CatsnHats wrote:@Ceph Jumping on the CatsnHats bandwagon I see. It seems like you trying to get people to spare you on D2 by shifting attention to me. You quoted me as saying "Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with." as evidence that I flip-flopped when I later included him on my scum reads. But you didn't quote the whole post. I said: Show nested quote + RE: CookieMaker
Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think. I've never flipped on CM, you just didn't include this to make your case. It seems alot of people have a habit of doing that. And no, you didn't fall off of my list, if you actually read Jitsu's post you aren't mentioned on it, so I didn't include you. Don't worry you're still on it. You're actually at the top of it for D2. That's not OMGUS, it's just that you are top two with CM/Tea and once he's gone you're logically next on the list. My flip from Gretorp to you was to kill the greater of two evils a the moment, since Gretorp's inactivity had left him as a harder read when compared to you. And then I switched my vote from you to Tea because it seemed we were going to be deadlocked, and killing #2 on my list and letting #1 go is much better than letting both #1 and #2 go.
I didn't quote the whole post, because it wasn't necessary. My point was that YOU AGREED with CookieMaker's pro-town read on me at that point. Not anything about flipping on CM, so don't make stuff up. What makes me a greater evil than Gretorp to you? You still haven't posted any original thoughts of yours against anyone you've accused of being scum.
Lurking around at the beginning, writing a paragraph of text that amounts to nothing, and then OMGUS-ing the person that prods you... not a good look Gretorp. Pretty scummy if you ask me.
You said this after Gretorp answered to Tunkeg's accusations. = Nothing original.
You want accusations, here are my slight scum reads.
RE: Xeris
Inactive early and his only posted content centers on not lynching after much discussion has already taken place amongst the town about why that is a bad idea. That would seem to be a play for a mafia freekill on N1.
RE: CookieMaker
Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think.
RE: Gretorp
He is the scummiest player so far. From the joke in post one to the back down in post two to this new third post, every response is just too cute and offers nothing in the way of analysis or contribution. Two to three sentence posts of no substance seem very suspicious.
How original, you are repeating the opinions of others on your three scum reads.
@Jitsu You have so much wrong about me I don't know where to start. I waited around 2 hours and 30 posts before I first commented. How is that lurking, especially for it being my first game? Others waited much longer and did not draw your attention. I was the second person to talk about Gretorp, and I was the first to call him out on his response to Tunkeg's prod. And how could I have changed my top 3 scum reads when that was the first time I posted them? Gretorp stayed on the list, Xeris advocated no-lynch, and CM had been very shady (as was explained in the post and echoed by others later). I kept pressing and pressing Gretorp because I stuck to my stance and he hadn't answered yet, but that is explained because he works all day for NASL. I await his response. I appreciate your concern, and like your aggression for me to explain myself. I have a town read for you, and I hope this clarifies things
You were not the first to call him out on his response to Tunkeg. I WAS Nice try. You are trying to claim you were the first one to pressure a lurker's response, yet you weren't. And we're talking about a LURKER. What a risky move.
Are you sure you didn't mean to type "echoed by me" later? When you were providing your first reads about CM, you were only copying the facts others had already said.
Gretorp is explained because he works in NASL? Please. We others have lives too, and don't necessarily work any less.
I hope "this clarifies things", means your whole post, and not "I have a town read for you".
On January 05 2012 12:27 Jitsu wrote:
Also, just so I have it here. I am willing to bet that if Cats dies and flips red, Cookie will too.
Your response was this:
Also why would Cookie flip red too? He's been on my scum list from the beginning and he has now voted for me.
Wait...what do we have here. You say that you have him as scum from beginning, and that he is playing against you. BANG. You are trying to convince others that you are not in the same team with Cookie. What are you going to do now that he flipped green? Certainly isn't looking good for you.
Yeah I know I look scummy. People are holding my first two newb posts against me and it's clouding their judgement on the rest of my play. At this point in the game Cephiro is definitely more scummy than Gretorp, especially in light of Gretorp promising a long post and his being at work all day
+
That being said, despite your circular theoretical talk, at this point I'm confident in your analysis of Cephiro and think he is more of a threat than Gretorp.
So unvote Gretorp
vote Cephiro
You ACKNOWLEDGE that you look scummy, and the first thing you do is jump on my bandwagon, based on someone elses analysis. According to you, I am definitely more scummy than Gretorp, because Probu said so. And Gretorp promised to post after his hard working day.
EBWOP: I know this makes me look even more bandwaggony to you Jitsu. But I can't worry about your thoughts about me. I just need to help find scum and let my play speak for itself.
Your play certainly speaks for itself. You haven't helped to find ANY scum so far. Because riding on bandwagons without making a case against someone yourself is so much easier?
For the record, I guess it is possible that Jitsu, Sheth, and Prob are the three mafia trying to pressure me from the beginning into voting for a target of their choice. I find it highly unlikely, however, that all three of you would be so vocal and hold such a majority of the spotlight, as this would certainly be a risky play. So I feel good about the vote switch. I just wanted to get this thought out there.
+
I just getting all the possibilities out there, and I said that you all being mafia was low probability, so if anything that would be taking suspicion from you. As I have said before from the beginning, my third (albeit a distant one relative to the others) at the moment is Xeris due to his no-lynch posts, lurking, and non-responses to player questions. He has left very little material to go on, but that is my third for now. For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris. I could see Xeris dropping off this list though when he, Gretorp, AH, Blurry, and others post again.
So basically, you are theorycrafting how someone else than me could be scum, but it is unlikely, so I don't really think you are. Talk about fluff! Oh wait, you did something new, you're jumping on Xeris! Except his inactiveness has been pointed out already. Now let's see at your scumreads at this point. "For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris" Wow, 2 bandwagons and 1 lurker. So original.
@Cephiro I was about to ask you to change your vote to Tea, but you did it before I could finish.
Tea/CM was on my scum list the whole time (check my filter), so I'm fine with lynching him instead of a no-lynch D1.
Yep, bandwagoning since the start indeed. And at no point did you provide own analysis. Because when others do it, it's enough, right?
I think I've got my strongest scumread right against the wall now. Let's see how you'll convince your way out of this one.
I'll leave this here and go sleep now. I'll be interested in seeing your response when I am back. And if you're trying to blame me for jumping on the bandwagon, try. I am providing my own analysis and reasoning as to why you are scum, unlike what you ever did.
You got away due to the heavy case on me, but where are you going to go now? You won't be able to hide on a bandwagon until you try and defend yourself, I'll be making sure of that.
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Hey, unfortunately due to IRL issues I will not be able to take part in the conversation until +12 hours or more (when I arrive home), I am currently on a 2 hour bus trip for an IRL sports invitational, but I am certainly not dropping out of the game and will come back with double the passion once I get the competition out of the way.
Just to clarify: This is not meant to be wishy-washy or filler, but to give you guys the legit reason why I haven't (and won't be able to post) until later. Wish me luck! (For the competition  )
And when I'm back... scums beware. Even if I would have to defend myself against a thousand accusations before nailing you against the wall, I will.
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Hey everyone! It took me longer to get back than expected, but I am going to post a lot of stuff before the lynch. Should be done in 1-1,5 hours or less, will post each post as I finish it.
In the meanwhile, I am not going to vote for anyone else than Cats or Sheth today. Sheth lynch > Cats lynch > No lynch IMO.
(Also, don't even think I am bandwagoning on Sheth, I would probably have posted my case even before Probulous if I hadn't been busy IRL.)
First I will simply browse through the thread and reply to anything I feel necessary, and then I will re-read everyone's filters and post my analysis.
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EBWOP: Totally forgot.
##Vote: Liquid`Sheth
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 11:32 CatsnHats wrote:Ok guys. I don't really want to do this, but I'm going to since it really is the best for the town. I think all of you should vote to lynch me on D2. I've come to realize that I am a terrible player of this game, especially as a townie (with no role I might add!). I should have found the newbie forum or got a better idea of this game before i signed up to play it. My first few posts I made before I realized the psychological and analytical implications of this game handicapped me and I've been playing the defensive ever since. After the bad start I put myself in, my goal was to make it past D1, which I did, so I'm fine with getting lynched if it's agreeable amongst everyone (I'm sure the scum will agree). All I have really done is distract you all from the real the scum with my terrible play, and that's not fair to the town. I also admit, I haven't added much in the way of original analysis because I was afraid that it would put me in even more hot water. The obviously wasn't the right play. Maybe you all can get D2 sped up if the mods allow it so anymore scumhunting time isn't wasted. This probably isn't the correct time to do it since it's N1, but for the record. ##Vote: CatsnHatsFor the record: in light of CM/Tea turning up green, I think it takes some heat of you Ceph. You (and the rest of the town) should spend your time looking into Xeris and Gretorp (because of questionable/contradictory posting when not lurking) and pressuring AnxiousHippo, a player who has gone unnoticed to others because of all of the accusations going around. He's made filler posts, keeps making excuses for not reading through everything, and throws out a placeholder vote for Xeris and a very bandwagon vote for CookieMaker/Tea. Quoted below: Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:36 AnxiousHippo wrote:
I haven't been able to go through everything as well as I hoped but we need a lynch. There was a lot of discussion on Cephiro but I haven't been able to read through it thoroughly enough so I'm going for Tea
##Unvote: Xeris
##Vote: A Killer Cuppa Tea
My first reaction: Scum nailed! It could be a very desperate townie but I doubt it, since he didn't even try to defend himself against the accusations. Will certainly be checking into AnxiousHippo as well.
On January 06 2012 11:41 gonzaw wrote:
Okay, there are 2 basic reasons for voting Tea (or AKCT, whatever):
1-For previous reasons of certain players
2-A bandwagon vote to avoid a no-lynch.
Players in the 1st category would include:
Me, Tunkmeg, Blurry
Players in the 2nd category would include:
CatsHats, Sheth, Prob, Jitsu, Cephiro, Hippo
*sigh*, not really much to go on on that 2nd category, almost everybody reasoned their vote for Tea to avoid the no-lynch.
However, some of the players in the 2nd one did FoS him before.
Here I would just like to point out, as you might know if you've been reading filters, I did have a town-leaning read on Cookie/AKCT. The reason I voted for Tea was to avoid no-lynch, as probably mentioned before. I felt like I did not have enough time to try and convince 6 people to change their votes into someone I found scummy (such as Sheth), since I had barely recently defended myself from heavy accusations. And even if I had a feeling it would be a mis-lynch, I knew we would gain information from the reactions of other players.
On January 06 2012 08:36 AnxiousHippo wrote:
I haven't been able to go through everything as well as I hoped but we need a lynch. There was a lot of discussion on Cephiro but I haven't been able to read through it thoroughly enough so I'm going for Tea
##Unvote: Xeris
##Vote: A Killer Cuppa Tea
Since when have you been able to go through anything? I don't think I've seen a single useful post from you in the whole game.
On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Let me go re-read / filter cookie. His one post that stuck out to me was him defending Cephiro and saying he was extremely pro-town. Honestly though, with just remembering cookies lines I don't think anything really stuck out. Will go re-read now..
On January 05 2012 23:48 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I read through CookieMaker's / A K C T's filter. Cookie's filter looked a little bad. He talked a lot about his read on CatsNHats and then never posted it. A K C T I like that your asking questions, but could you please post a few reads you have as well?
@Probulous my 3 scummiest right now are probably Cookie ( A K C T ) / Cephiro and / Maybe blurry... he hasn't posted much and I'm not convinced CatsNhats isn't just completely new to the game. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt while we have better people to pressure.
At the point where he says his scummiest reads, which are me & Tea & MAYBE blurry, he hasn't provided any analysis against Cookie, just said "I read through his filter and it looked a little bad".
On January 06 2012 08:26 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
If you haven't voted for him, please vote for him.
##Unvote: Cephiro
##Vote: A Killer Cuppa Tea
And bang, look at the quick change. If he really found me as scummy as he did, how come he didn't try to pressure me more than that even though there was time till lynch? I'll admit there wasn't much, but his whole Day 1 sums up to pressuring to get me lynched, mostly because of Probu's analysis. Where was the content?
On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:
At the moment Cephiro looks more like mafia than CatsnHats, partly because I don't know what to make of Cats' "I give up post". He was also trying to play it safe till the pressure came on.
I look more mafia than CatsnHats because of what? Your splendid analysis:
On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:
He says he sees Jitsu and CM as slightly town and he's neutral on Tunkeg.
He also falls back on "being excited" twice
He also says he doesn't think Sheth is mafia but asks everyone else to watch him closely, implying he wants other people to call him out first so he doesn't have to worry about it.
His vote for Tea was also just a placeholder even though he said none of his top 3 scumreads is Tea.
What do my reads have to do with anything? Just because I had a neutral read on Tunkeg at that point, or that I saw Jitsu and CM as slightly town, had nothing to do with anything.
You call me out for being excited. Now, come on really, couldn't you find anything better?
And here you are making up the best laughter of the day (bolded). As far as I remember, I was the first person to pressure Sheth, and been suspicious of him all the time. At no point have I said that I don't think Sheth is mafia. What I said in your quote was that " I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully"
If I am suspicious of someone, why should I not tell it to everyone? If you think someone is scum, you tell it and try to provide points that back up your claim. You don't just sit back and hope someone else does it.
And my vote is already explained.
On January 07 2012 05:24 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
This post seems like its one of two things.
1. Hes honestly just a newb who isn't dealing with the pressure very well. It happens and this post is just his way of taking the pressure off of him.
2. His scum buddies helped him post something that looks good and will take pressure off of him.
I just CANT see him posting this as scum by himself. And this post seems like it was written exactly by CatsnHats, not by an outside helper as far as I can tell. Things like "this probably isn't the correct time" then still doing it, just seems very like cats. So, as I'm not convinced hes not mafia, I don't think he should be a lynch for us in day 2. If he is mafia he will definetly make some silly mistakes as we go along or he'll be dead.
= Don't lynch my scumbuddy please.
Tunkeg & Gonzaw fighting back and forth for no reason whatsoever, blah.
Probu's Sheth read:
+ Show Spoiler +On January 07 2012 06:00 Probulous wrote:Alright, my Sheth read. I am not going to post a massive text wall, it is 7:30am on a Saturday, give me a little break These things bothered me. He seems to really want to talk about blue roles, I don't see the value in this and the potential risk. If we have blues, discussing roles can lead to an outing which is bad for all. Despite my constant requests for this to stop, he has kept on about them. Most of his posts are fluff (admittedly discussions with me took up quite a few). He blatant support of Xeris with this as his reasoning Show nested quote +Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia.
And his posts about why he doesn't want to lynch someone this day are what I initially thought too when I went from IRL games to forum posts. So just the fact that he is usually terrible as mafia and whenever hes used that excuse in the past hes always been town + hes playing just how I imagine a townie Xeris playing gives me a good read. Hes one of the only two I know IRL, so its easier for me to get a read on him then the rest of you. That last line is particularly bad. It is clear that online and offline mafia are totally different, Sheth knows this from playing two games yet he is pretty certain that Xeris is town based on his offline play? The only reason you are certain of someone's alignment is when they flip or if you are scum. His case on Cookie amounted to Show nested quote +Let me go re-read / filter cookie. His one post that stuck out to me was him defending Cephiro and saying he was extremely pro-town. Honestly though, with just remembering cookies lines I don't think anything really stuck out. Will go re-read now.. Show nested quote +I read through CookieMaker's / A K C T's filter. Cookie's filter looked a little bad. He talked a lot about his read on CatsNHats and then never posted it. A K C T I like that your asking questions, but could you please post a few reads you have as well? Which was enough to put his scum list as Show nested quote +@Probulous my 3 scummiest right now are probably Cookie ( A K C T ) / Cephiro and / Maybe blurry Cephiro pointed out his dropping of the Ceph case until I posted mine. Points in his favour He is active and was the first to call out both Cats and Cephiro. He is happy to respond and get engaged in large discussions. He voted early for AKCT who was already on his list of scum reads. So in short my read is still null  I can justify what he says from both a townie and scum perspective which makes him hard to read. I am still suspicious and will have a reread later in the day when I have more time and am a little more awake 
After this I was quite disappointed, since I was still sure of my suspicions against Sheth. But I knew I would make a case and prove everyone the scum he is as soon as possible.
Then I see Jitsu pressuring Sheth and AnxiousHippo. I like.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 07 2012 06:20 Jitsu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 05:34 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I'm leaning town as of now. I stick by the fact that if hes mafia he'll make some huge mistake soon. That doesn't fly with me. Let me explain why. Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 12:17 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
CatsnHats, welcome to your first game of mafia. You say "Not lynching unless reasonably certain". This is a scummy thing to say, as its leaning towards not lynching today. You realize there is no way to be "reasonably certain" on day one. Get it together and find some scum, or I'm picking you for our day one lynch. Nice first post. You jump on CatsnHats for doing scummy things. Perfect, exactly what I would like to see from a first post from someone. You get him, jump right up there and pressure that little weasel... Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 13:47 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
CatsnHats come on, be counteragressive. I'm picking on you for no real reason. I just want to get you to toughen up. If it comes down to it at the end and someone is agressive like this against you, and you just KNOW hes mafia, you better toughen up.
As of now, I'm going to sleep. So far I've seen one post that worries me. Will tell you guys in the morning :D! ...wait, what the shit is this? You start pressuring someone, than let off because you think he's new. Why does being new matter? So he can't be responsible for his own actions? Why are you letting him off the hook so easily without even squeezing him a little bit? Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 05:34 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
@CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting?
Anyone else willing to hop on board, don't forget to pack a vote. This was the post right after you vote Cephiro. After Probu posts his analysis, you step right on that train, right away. The only form of suspicion you threw on Cephiro was more wobbly than a Jenga tower. Than as soon as someone else votes for him, you vote for him. You even say that you saw some things that looked like he was scummy, but you let him off the hook too. Weird. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:43 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Another thing I should say I geuss :
Don't base me being "Liquid`Sheth" on any reads here. I play mafia to WIN. I'm going to kill people heartlessly. You won't get out of an argument with me because I'm feeling nice. Its stupid to just trust me because that I'm someone you've watched. If I was streaming me playing mafia, I'd be the IdrA of mafia. Only scum would not want to lynch me based on me being "Sheth", it fits inside that little bracket of not wanting to upset others and just staying in the middle.
So basically next person who says something like "oh no sheth can't be mafia because hes sheth" I'm going to assume is a little scummier. Just figured I should post this as we win as a team and lose as a team, and I wouldn't want you guys who feel the same way about Xeris or Gretorp to not kill them because you know them. If there scummy, were going to steal Xeris' chair and not give Gretorp a hug.
Ok, because I honestly can't stay mean for too long, I wuv u Duran + Andre <3 lol You are the IdrA of Mafia? Ok. So why did you stop putting all forms of pressure on Cats so early? + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 23:48 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
@Probulous my 3 scummiest right now are probably Cookie ( A K C T ) / Cephiro and / Maybe blurry... he hasn't posted much and I'm not convinced CatsNhats isn't just completely new to the game. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt while we have better people to pressure.
1) If you were a Cop (could determine the alignment of somebody during the night), who's alignment would you check and why? NOT Probulous, as I'd be worried he was going to die at night, I'd determine someone such as Gonzaw or Tunkeg.
2) If you were a Doc (could save someone from a nightkill), who would you save and why? I would save one of Probulous, Myself, Gonzaw and Tunkeg.
3) If you were a Vigilante (town-aligned nightkill) who would you kill and why? Probably no one, if I was forced to kill someone (Town CK) I'd probably kill A K C T (Cookie Maker) or Cephiro, depending on who we lynch.
4) If you were a Town-Aligned Roleblocker (could prevent someone from using their night action for a night) who would you block, and why? (Also, remember, an RB can act as a soft-cop. If you block someone and there's no nightkill, you may have blocked the mafia's kill! (Yes i know there's no Vig or RB in this setup.))
I'd probably RB either Cephiro or Cookie, depending on who we lynch.
5) If you have a vote on someone currently, please explain your vote.
I have a vote on Cephiro. Its explained in two posts that I posted earlier + Prob's analysis.
6) If you don't have a vote on somebody, please park your vote on someone. Have an opinion. It doesn't matter if you're wrong. Abstainance lets scum hide amongst you! Now you're opinion went from Cats being scummy, to him being new? Than AKCT goes up for lynching, and you jump to that one with new real analysis posting. At that point, it was a bandwagon lynch, but what was YOU'RE Reasoning? RE: Hippo - I just realized how you worded this. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 16:04 AnxiousHippo wrote:
I might not be able to go through everything in time so I'll make a placeholder vote and hope I have time tomorrow morning to change it if need be.
##vote:Xeris
This is more of a pressure vote atm, since all his done is said he disagrees with RL and then says he doesn't want to lynch at all first day. Since all the pressure's been on cephira and CM he's been quiet.
You say that you will go over everything tomorrow morning and change a vote if need be. What? If it's not on time, you will just not vote, or leave it on Xeris? Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:36 AnxiousHippo wrote:
I haven't been able to go through everything as well as I hoped but we need a lynch. There was a lot of discussion on Cephiro but I haven't been able to read through it thoroughly enough so I'm going for Tea
##Unvote: Xeris
##Vote: A Killer Cuppa Tea Wow. Stellar. So you jump on this lynch train and don't even bother to explain why. Not only that, but you pretty much indicate that you are going off of what other people have discussed, and not come up with anything concrete on you're own, pretty much re-leaving all pressure from you if it's a miss-lynch.
Time for the first post-split.
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On January 07 2012 09:02 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Ok then, you think Cats is scum.
At the beginning I could have pressured Cats more, I agree. However it appeared he simply didn't understand the basics of Mafia. However shortly after, I started putting most of my attention on looking at Cephiro. I didn't just stop all pressure on him though however like you assumed. It was just a temporary relieve to let him relax and get comfy again before taking away that relaxed state really quickly.
The next post saying that he looked "oh so scummy" was merely a way to get some pressure back on him. Also, its the first day. I'm not letting people go. I'm simply moving on to different people, it doesn't mean I can't and won't bring it back up. As you've noticed I'm currently pro lynching Cephiro. In fact I think he should be our #1 lynch target tomorrow.
As for me going to the A K C T bandwagon your welcome to read my filter. Considering you made me read yours instead of just saying "I think hes scum" have fun reading mine again.
And yes, right now I'm leaning Cats as town. I've also posted my reasoning for that. However I'm not "letting him off the hook". If he doesn't stay active then hes an obvious lynch target. However as of now hes posting and hes posting a lot. You say at the beginning that we shouldn't just wait and let him make more scum slips. Well, I don't think he should be our lynch target today, you think he should be sense you think hes scum?
You temporarily stopped pressure on me to let me relax? Come on, why on earth would a townie do that to his strongest scum-read? And your way of pressuring me again: "He looks so scummy", are you serious? And yet you are saying I should be the lynch target #1.
Nice try on dodging the fact you joined the Tea bandwagon without providing close to any content yourself. "Read my filter".
Well I did and I didn't find you pressuring nor being even very much against Tea at all, just sheeping "He is scum", after reading Probu's analysis.
Why do you find Cats down? Because you want to save your scumbuddy! But now you are both being revealed, how does that feel?
On January 07 2012 09:43 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 09:22 Probulous wrote:On January 07 2012 09:09 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I haven't read his defense yet at all, I plan on making a big post on him after the night phase is over talking about the defense and such. Hopefully you don't mind waiting until morning. You seem pretty certain on surviving the night. You know something we don't? Night ends soon and I don't have time now. Ends in 22 minutes. I'm still working atm and when I'm done I'm going to go to sleep. I want it to be perfect and make sense completely. I'm upset we didn't lynch him last day and I think its because of sloppy posts not explaining all there is on him atm. Will also be interesting to see who died. If its me then sorry, and you already know my read on him is scum, and me dieing should give you clues too. So, as much as I'd like to give my full read on him before the end of night I'm not going to have time. You posted your entire read on me, I bet that took a while. I just don't have time to do that atm and want to do it right.
I certainly hope I get to see this and use it against you scum.
On January 07 2012 09:48 Liquid`Sheth wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 07 2012 09:36 Jitsu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 09:05 Probulous wrote:
Jitsu, Tunk, enough with the back and forth. It should be pretty clear you are both town to anyone paying attention. Don't waste your time arguing over a single badly worded post.
You both voted for AKCT before anyone else, that should be enough to ensure that you both did not jump on the wagon. You started it. Save your analysis for people who are possibly scum. This is just spamming the thread and making it difficult to spot other people's posts. I'm not back and forth'ing with Tunk. XD RE: Sheth - What kind of question is that? I post an analysis, than I vote for him, and than you ask me if I think he should be lynched? Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 10:02 CatsnHats wrote:@Ceph Jumping on the CatsnHats bandwagon I see. It seems like you trying to get people to spare you on D2 by shifting attention to me. You quoted me as saying "Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with." as evidence that I flip-flopped when I later included him on my scum reads. But you didn't quote the whole post. I said: RE: CookieMaker
Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think. I've never flipped on CM, you just didn't include this to make your case. It seems alot of people have a habit of doing that. And no, you didn't fall off of my list, if you actually read Jitsu's post you aren't mentioned on it, so I didn't include you. Don't worry you're still on it. You're actually at the top of it for D2. That's not OMGUS, it's just that you are top two with CM/Tea and once he's gone you're logically next on the list. My flip from Gretorp to you was to kill the greater of two evils a the moment, since Gretorp's inactivity had left him as a harder read when compared to you. And then I switched my vote from you to Tea because it seemed we were going to be deadlocked, and killing #2 on my list and letting #1 go is much better than letting both #1 and #2 go. Does that look like a newbie post to you? If I was being accused of Mafia, I would prove my innocence by finding scum. Not by trying the town to lynch myself. In other words, having the town waste another day to lynch me if I was town is anti-town in and of itself. I think he's banking on the fact that he's trying to pull at our oh-so-tender heartstrings. Thoughts? Didn't notice you voted on him. Didn't realize you could vote on someone during night phase... And yes that post was really well done. Thats ONE post of his. (What is OMGUS?) Do the rest look like veteran posts to you? Like his gambit of trying to get himself lynched is stupid. When ProfBA did it, it was stupid too. ProfBA was a veteran though, he had a lot of good posts, he even got elected as something. In what crazy world would we elect this Catsnhats? I don't see him coming up with the same thing as ProfBA... And ProfBA isn't a coach for this. However I don't think it means hes not mafia, I just don't think hes our best read. Give him the rest of this day and I might agree that hes surely mafia, but can you at least agree to give him that time? IdrA is actually a lot nicer then people give him credit for. :[
"My scumbuddy is a newbie regardless that he made a good post, anyone could do a random good post!" He doesn't need to "come up with the same thing as ProfBA", someone else that knows the game of his scumbuddies could have suggested him that since they couldn't come up with a defense for him even together.... you maybe?
You constantly ask more mercy for him.... then why don't you try to prove someone else is a bigger threat? Like me that you've been trying to get killed out of your way all the time? Too bad you didn't get the job done on the first cycle. And now we're going to LYNCH you before you can night-kill me on N2, how does that sound?
On January 07 2012 10:30 AnxiousHippo wrote:
I'm working on the bandwagon analysis
... Is he still working on it?
On January 07 2012 12:59 CatsnHats wrote:In regard to my martyr post, I'll admit that I felt pretty defeated when I was writing it, but then I realized that I could use your reactions as fodder for evidence and as a way of generating discussion, so I lurked and waited. I was pretty disappointed for the most part, a lot of "Don't give up for the town's sake" responses that came from the players with really town-y reads already (Prob, Gonzaw, Tunkeg), and this was meant to find scum, not confirm town. But then AnxiousHippo posted thank goodness, something I could make a read on. Oh really? So in reality you're just a clever townie fishing for reactions. What a surprising turn of events.....
And then you found one person even more wishy-washy sheepier than you! Congratulations. Now to blame him to get pressure off yourself?+ Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:
@CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that. Thanks for the pep-talk, the thing is though, it's the exact same thing that Probulous wrote, just in less words. Bandwagon post to make yourself look town if you ask me. This has to be the best accusation ever. Do you really think this would distract us from you?+ Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 11:40 Probulous wrote:
Don't you dare throw in the towel! That is a shitty thing to do. Hell ask for a replacement if this is too hard for you.
If you are town, fight for your life. I am pissed at AKCT for his apathy. You at least have been posting. Take a break and come back later with a case on someone. You realise if you throw in the towel and you are green you are severly handicapping the rest of us?
You noticed that Hippo hasn't been contributing. Do what Gonz did and make people see your point of view. The argument against you is long and has substantial evidence. There isn't anything you can really do except be useful to town.
I hate it when people do this. It is so passive aggressive and weak. Grow a spine and take the heat. If you get lynched, well better luck next time. But this, is aweful. And why would you compliment my last paragraph? Because it points the finger at you. If I didn't include you, would that make it better than "decent"? Or are you just complimenting it because you think I would let you off the hook? And this is the time when you randomly start pointing small suspicions against everyone random, hoping to confuse people a bit. Seriously, calling Probu out on that? And then this: + Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:
And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot When? Don't think we've forgotten. Really? After everyone else has already agreed that he needs to respond and has been pressured, you jump on the bandwagon and offer this filler BS? You're going to have to do better than that. You also say that Xeris doesn't look scummy because we have nothing to go on, but his posts are more questionable than Gretorp, a player you are bandwagon pressuring. Are you just trying to protect Xeris, a scum friend? Oh wow, you did find one more thing to blame Hippo for. At least you're trying... sorry, not enough. You're still scum.9 (excluding me) people left. 3 are mafia. AnxiousHippo, Blurry, Gretorp, and Xeris have all drawn suspicion for either lurking, contradicting themselves, shady behavior, etc. Do I think the whole mafia is in these 4? NO. Do I think at least one, maybe of them is? Yes. In light of recent events, AnxiousHippo has done the most to damn himself in my eyes, but we're kinda stuck on Gretorp and Xeris until they answer or get modkilled. That leaves Blurry, I'll analyze his filter and post later. Who's ProfBA? I thought you all were mistyping Prob but you kept saying it so I'm confused. @Sheth This is the definition of OMGUS from the TL Newbie Thread Cookie linked: "OMGUS: Oh my God! You suck! Voting for someone just because they are voting for you" Is this better guys? I'm really trying here. "Do I look innocent enough already? Can I stop trying to look like a townie and just make you trust me?"
I will comment mine in bolded in the post above since I am too lazy to make 5 split quotes.
This is part 2. More coming up...
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On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.
I am yet not sure what to think of you, but at least you are right in one thing whether you are a townie, or mafia trying to gain town-cred.
On January 07 2012 21:11 Probulous wrote:
The only issue I had post his defense was his vote reason (a placeholder vote). He could have voted for one of his scum-reads but he chose to follow the crowd. This keeps him on my watch list.
As for Sheth, I am almost certain he is scum. I have read and re-read the thread over and over and there are some things I cannot reconcile. His insistent early support for Xeris over Gretorp being the first that springs to mind. I am putting together my case on him but want people to take a good look and tell me why he isn't mafia.
Full case coming soonish!
I'll admit I maybe should have done that, but I didn't want to give the mafia a chance to no-lynch, nor give someone the impression that I was trying to jack the vote towards a no-lynch (pro-mafia play). But today, we lynch scum. Because we're going to lynch Sheth.
Once I read the bolded, I knew we were going in the right direction today. Finally more people would realize the killer that hided behind the manner.
And once I saw Probu's case of the D2 on Sheth, especially considering he is probably the strongest town read for many. (Which no-one should take for granted!), I got the feeling that today is the day the first scum falls.
On January 08 2012 10:31 gonzaw wrote:
??
I had a null read on him until you posted your case, in which case I now have a scum read on him.
You posted your case on him after you posed that question, so my answer was about what I thought of him at that point in time.
I don't get how that could be misinterpreted.
And yes, Sheth hasn't really been accused until now, his response can make us change our minds or make us more assured if he's scum. And I think we can notice if he's trying to "cast doubt" on what you've written.
However I won't be around to see it.
I'm going out now, and tomorrow as soon as I wake up I'll be going out of town for like 1-2 days, so I won't be around until that time.
I hope I get back before it's too late on Day 3 though.
So fuck Sheth, I was waiting for his response, but I need to make a placeholder vote, and the case against him is the best we have at the moment IMO, considering Blurry is ignoring me and Xeris just disappeared off the face of the Earth.
##Vote: Liquid`Sheth
This is a very weird post for me. You have been trying so hard to provide content and analysis yourself earlier, but now you went from a null read to scum read just because of Probu's post? I admit that Probu posts good and convincing cases, but please people, think for yourselves too! If he's the one controlling the game with his analysis with everyone just jumping on the bandwagon, in the case he is mafia we're fucked. I am not saying he is, I got a town-read on him myself at the moment, but don't take it for granted!
Anyway, this post made me more curious, I will have to read through gonzaw's filter again soon.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
You keep him in your scum list, but you don't keep pressuring him. You just act meaner to a guy who is acting newb. This is the sort of non-stop pressure that almost caused him to try and "lynch" himself. I still don't think Cats is mafia based on his posts and what not. However I obviously want to keep pressure on him. Thats what I've been saying this whole time, but now I'm stuck responding to these posts.
From your response to Probu's analysis about you.
We're not acting extra-mean to anyone. Could you provide some back-up for your claims of Cats being townie? All you say is the bolded, which is basically nothing. His posts and what not? But you obviously want to keep pressure on him, when you just said that sort of non-stop pressure almost made a townie suicide? Contradictory. Protection of scumbuddy, failed.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
This is horrible logic. Your logic has just been way off recently. Xeris' post just seemed townie at the time. Gretorps did as well, and I've explained about Xeris too much. And if you'd known Xeris in RL you'd understand. I really wish Gretorp would come on and explain this sometime, but sense hes apparently always afk your just bringing up a point I can't verify. I don't like how your taking something that I can bring to town (my knowledge of both of them in Real life) and trying to point it out as invalid. You think my one post of defending Xeris makes him mafia if I am? You've just created a lot of text here again, that doesn't say anything.
+
Yes its different, but all knowledge should be used? Again, why would you not want me to bring these things up? If you've known someone for 10 years both ONLINE AND OFFLINE, HOW IN THE WORLD would I not have a good read on them.
No matter how well you know them, I doubt you can know if they are mafia or town by 3-4 pretty much oneliner posts about promising more. Or then you're one heck of a mindreader. I still don't get why you are protecting them so hard.
Admittingly it's impossible to make a case on them on anything else than lurking, and if they are townies then they are making the game considerably harder for us :/ Hopefully we'll get replacements soon.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
In a lot of the games I've played previously a DT for a mafia is a good trade. I think its a good trade here as well if they have a few people who are confirmed townies. You suggest here that DT can find mafia on his own then post his reads just like the rest of us. If the DT has 2 mafia he should for sure just come out and say it I think. So more just wrong information...
A DT for a mafia is a good trade? Certainly not this early in the game. How can you be sure someone is DT if another person would counterclaim? You were fishing for blue roles earlier, are you afraid of the chance a medic could block your night-kills?
On January 08 2012 11:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Cephiro really impressed me with the way he defended himself against your analysis. His statistics post people got angry at him for isn't really that big of a deal for me since it was his first post and it's his first game of forum mafia. Ceph was also the first the post a write-up on all the town, although you picked it apart later. I still think that counts for something. He called out Sheth in his defense post for Sheth's wishy washy play, and later pressured me on my terrible play up to that point. His analysis was the reason I made the martyr post. There was no real way for me to defend my play up to the point, and seeing it written up that way I knew I was distracting from catching scum. His analysis is very good, and I hope he gets back from his sports tournament soon because he's an asset to this town. Cephiro is definitely a town read for me.
Sheth endeared himself in my eyes for defending my newb-play in the beginning, and even after my martyr post he still had a town read for me. I'm starting to think that's because he KNOWS I'm town though. Prob's and Jitsu's analysis has definitely cast a black cloud on the nicest guy in esports. He has ghosted on Prob's analysis of Cephiro, basically promising analysis in the morning on someone's that bothered him. Prob posts his Ceph analysis, and then Sheth's like "oh yeah we was mine too." Just seems like he was waiting for someone to post original content so he can ghost it. And the way he has handled the Xeris situation is shady as well.
Sheth is our best case so far, but I'm really holding out hope (albeit a faint one) that Xeris, Gretorp, or AH will talk before the lynch. I will at least do this:
##Unvote: CatsnHats
I'm not going anywhere unless the town or mafia decides it.
At this point you seem fairly suspicious of Sheth. Why do you suddenly find him so town? You keep changing your minds on everyone, I just don't understand what the hell is going on in your head. Either you are the most confused player ever, or then you're clever mafia trying to get back in by confusing everyone and trying to get on the right bandwagons in time. I suspect the latter.
On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:@Prob yeah I do think they are (Blurry too) better scum targets than Sheth. I think we are letting the terrible activity level of half this town make us point the finger at each other. @Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that.
@Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question.
The lurkers are better targets in your opinion. I admit it's certainly not pro-town play, but considering they are about to get modkilled or replaced, why would you not try to pick out the active scum? Even if they both would be mafia (Which I find very unlikely, and quite sure that's not the case), there would be still one scum remaining among the active players. Go and find that one!
Then you talk about how people ghost Probu's analysis, even YOURSELF. But then you are getting suspicious on Gonzaw for doing the same. Do you have enough fingers to point in all those directions? I sure don't.
Then you are "not suspecting Probu", but curious about if people are letting him by too easily. Sure, you can ask about it from others, but make a case on it yourself if you think that's what happening. I've seen at least me and Sheth critizise his analysis (admittingly, we were the ones being accused).
On January 08 2012 12:44 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I've been too distracted by all of this pressure on me that I havn't done another full write up on Cephiro.
That's no excuse, even to this point I haven't seen but smaller analysis from you, not a single "full write-up". Too distracted by all the pressure on you? That sure didn't prevent me from trying to catch scum when I was under pressure, even though admittingly delaying it a bit.
Post 3. More coming up.
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