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On December 16 2011 03:57 Comprissent wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2011 03:51 Jitsu wrote:
Yeah, by that logic, I would be all over GreYMisT too. I get a towny-feel from him.
Conversely, you bandwagon-ed against me from GreY's post without any analysis of your own, pretty sure. At least, I just checked the filter, and you pretty much said "Yeah, player A and player B would be good lynches I feel. That being said, let's lynch Jitsu." Logic. Yes it was something I immediately recognized and did not vote for you because of that. There ended up being no solid analysis for anyone day1, and we ended up lynching a blue, no surprise Also, will you all please spell my name right >.<
Than you go and bandwagon vote lynch someone else, a blue.
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United States2095 Posts
Ok, done streaming. I'm going to post a long theory that I want to discuss with you guys and get your reads on. Get ready.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
![[image loading]](http://wepartypatriots.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/recount.jpg) Breaking News
This just in, the Liquidia Supreme Court has demanded a recount! Even though only 8 official ballots have been cast, officials have been rumored to have difficulty counting that high. As a result, the day cycle has been extended 24 hours while they bring in their top experts to try to resolve this problem. Wait, all the top experts were mudered? Then who do we have left? Kurumi? We're doomed....
The day cycle has been extended. Approximately 55 hours remain in the day
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Vatican City State258 Posts
hmm palmogism, do you think that this could be a scumrole?
i dont think so.
additional 24 hours would be good today. zenert send that action in please.
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United States2095 Posts
First off, I know this is nothing conclusive, but I'm really suprised Arcto / Rad ./ ProfBA the veterans didn't come up with this.
So, last night we had a few interesting things occur. One, was the "Town Vig shot" on Eiii. And then we had the 2 deaths announced at the end, where xsksc and prplhz were killed. Also, Arcto claims that there was a mafia shot on him and that he lived through it. Arctocod says "we were shot last night, amazing. So now we "Know" where the 3 KP of the mafia were used. As long as we assume Arctocod is town, which I do.
It was used on xsksc + prplhz + arcto. Makes sense right?! Wrong. Why would mafia waste a KP that come on, lets be honest shouldn't be used singly on Arcto. There are other options here that I've thought of. So let me discuss them.
If instead of this, one of xsksc / prplhz was killed by another vigilante and Arcto was double stacked and still saved. Which I find unlikely, but not impossible. Or a newbie medic, despite us yelling to save Arcto chose to save someone else and magically got it correct and Arcto is just lieing. Also pretty much impossible. With Arcto now claiming to be shot and no one else coming out with "I was shot at night" or no one else dead, we can assume he really was shot.
This has been pretty simple logic so far and not at all what I'm trying to get at. The major points I'm saying so far is that Mafia using 1 KP on Arctocod was a stupid move. Theres no way around it. One option of this stupid move was just that were dealing with "Newbie" mafia. I suppose some other options include that the ability to make Arctocod step down, took 1 KP is possible. However I think thats unlikely.
After thinking this all through last night I was thinking to myself what if the kill that Giygas / Arcto used was actually a mafia KP. I think theres a chance that Giygas is a "Mafia Vig" who is doing this simply for town cred. This leads to a whole new area of thought where you have to wonder how legitimate Arcto is and if Mafia had this whole situation planned out for a while. I don't really want to get in to that here. I want to go more into why I think this was a Mafia Vig Shot.
As we all know, last night Arctocod recieved a package, a letter asking who to hit with a "Letter bomb" I'm just calling it that because someone already did. It ended up killing Eiii a blue townie. This letter bomb wasn't used as a group town ability simply as a "Giygas / Arctocod" ability. And it was sent to Arctocod while they were looking at Eiii quite harshly I believe. This part I'm not completely sure of, but I think its possible Giygas could geuss that Arctocod wasn't pressuing a mafia at the time so he would get a good townie to kill.
This would explain the one thing that was bugging me while I slept. Why did Arctocod get a KP used on him? I think its possible Giygas's power did this. I can definetly see a power in this game like "Mafia Terrorist" Once per game you may exchance a Mafia KP for sending a private PM to one player and this player will appear to have been shot at night and saved and then sending a second private PM that will detonate killing chosen player". This is basically the power that Giygas used, minus the few things that make it mafia. This power would simply makes a Mafia player look like a legit town vigilante.
I think its definetly a possiblility, almost likely considering I think its either this or Mafia has no veterans and just chose to waste one hit on Arcto. This could have been watched and obviously was going to be protected so I can't even see newbies making this mistake. Or something else I haven't thought of yet.
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United States2095 Posts
Deus, sense its obvious your here, please what do you think of this?
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No offense, but that is really convoluted and such a role would never be used in a TL game unless Caller was hosting it. The simplest explanation is usually correct and that would more like be the 0.1% explanation for the events.
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United States2095 Posts
Why do you think the 1KP was used on you then?
And I could have made a TL:DR of it I geuss that simplifies it a bit. That Giygas' role could be mafia and part of it was that the first person messaged "appears to be shot" and the second person actually is. I dont' think its that far fetched of a role, as that role was basically created in this game, minus the 2 mafia parts.
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I hope you guys realize I'm confirmed town now and, we should kill nuke.
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While that is a "possible" explination sheth, It is far too prone to risks for a scum team to attempt. If what you are saying is true and arcto and giygas are scum, then they would be in an even better position now if they had just left arcto in office, and used the kp on a more active townie than Eii.
Now that MrZentor has been confirmed I would like to hear what Zeks has to say, he has been at MrZentor's throat for a while now.
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On December 16 2011 05:06 MrZentor wrote:
I hope you guys realize I'm confirmed town now and, we should kill nuke.
We confirmed your role, not your alignment. You are likely town, but far from confirmed. Your role seems pro-town, but Eii's role seemed more pro-scum than pro-town, and yet he was town. So clearly that is not enough to confirm anything. Also, with all the last minute vote-switching/the withdrawal of Arctocod day 1...why in the hell did you not extend that day?
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There will be no roles that intentionally mislead players to such a degree. Everything about giygas' behavior screamed town. Even if there was <<5% chance that he could do everything he did as mafia, mafia is a game of probabilities and the way to win is to assume the likeliest scenario correct until new evidence puts your previous theory into question. Useful theories prove that something is likely. Theories that prove something is possible are useless.
While theorycrafting is fun, Giygas is almost certainly town, thus assume that he is and spend your effort and time elsewhere.
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Hardly a scumrole. There is a limit to how crual the hosts (palmar and caller excluded) can be in a closed setup. Now I'm getting mixed feelings Zentor is 99% confirmed town, on the other hand I don't want to trust him with a blue powerrole because I doubt he can put it to good use. In the end it will come down to how sure I am on Arctocod.
Zentor you're not in the danger you claim to be. You're just green right now. It's not like it's mega-likely you'll get hit, in alot of gamed mafia prefers to try and get blue roles or players who can be a threat to them. You don't fall in either category, Still you should be wifomed to the medics so mafia can't just freekill you.
I'm going to change my playstyle, I wont spam up the thread like wbg anymore I don't like to play that way to begin with. I'm feeling very bummed down at mafia right now so I'm not sure how hard I can care to scumhunt, it's alot of effort and right now atleast I'm not in the mood for it. If anyone wants to know why it's in the spoiler.+ Show Spoiler +Newbie mafia. I'm vanilla townie. I establish I am one of the better players in the game. Stops a bandwagon on Skrammen (our only medic). That night I tries to ensure that the medic will know to protect me by writing a strong analystic post once again make it clear that I need protection. I get shot Night 1.
Steamship. I'm vanilla townie, The town is in chaos and nobody can get a read on anything because some townies are just trolling. I die night 2.
XLVII. I'm veteran. All the lurkerbanes get killed for inactivity and half the town belives the draw the mafia offered us out if pitty is because they thought we had cought all the mafia.
Sheth, I think you're loosing yourself in wifom, I did just that in my first forum game and I had the same background as you, playing a ton of irl mafia. I think it's likely they just sent a shot at Arctocod to see if they could get lucky.
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Switched my election vote to giygas, as Arctocod stated their preference for the second place role rather than the first place one.
/Harbinger (been forgetting to do this some today >.>)
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On December 16 2011 05:09 GreYMisT wrote:
While that is a "possible" explination sheth, It is far too prone to risks for a scum team to attempt. If what you are saying is true and arcto and giygas are scum, then they would be in an even better position now if they had just left arcto in office, and used the kp on a more active townie than Eii.
Now that MrZentor has been confirmed I would like to hear what Zeks has to say, he has been at MrZentor's throat for a while now.
If he had just come forward and said that then we wouldn't of had to go through that whole charade. I wouldn't put him as confirmed townie even though he used his skill when asked to.
He gets a pass for now. No need for medic protection or role for election. He's not a scumhunter so theres no target on his back.
Knowing that Arc got outed from election why did Zentor not use his ability right away to extend? Furthermore he was on the chopping block so I really fail to see the reason to not use it in that situation.
@Sheth that kind of a stunt seems too complex for anyone to pull and way too many assumptions in your hypothesis
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United States2095 Posts
On December 16 2011 05:09 GreYMisT wrote:
While that is a "possible" explination sheth, It is far too prone to risks for a scum team to attempt. If what you are saying is true and arcto and giygas are scum, then they would be in an even better position now if they had just left arcto in office, and used the kp on a more active townie than Eii.
Now that MrZentor has been confirmed I would like to hear what Zeks has to say, he has been at MrZentor's throat for a while now.
I'm not implying Arcto is scum. Only that theres a chance Giygas' ability was scum.
@risk.nuke Hm, I can see what you mean. But I think if medics didn't save Arcto, we'd kill medics. That was the plan a while back. We made absolutely sure that medic should be on Arcto. All medics or medic abilities even should be on Arcto. I think if mafia decided to take a luck shot, that its likely mafia isn't full of veterans.
@Zeks, it was really complicated how I said it. I geuss I should have went for the smaller way of writing it, but it just made so much sense in my head. I think its still very possible that Giygas' role is scum. I still don't have a great reason for why they'd kp Arcto.
I get that the simplest answer is usually the correct one, I just don't see any really simple answers as to why Arcto was shot. That said, I will drop it. I'm not completely convinced, but as I haven't read giygas' filter I geuss I should do that too. I just thought this was a pretty good explaination for that oddity.
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Posting from phone,that theory that Every has reminds me of those crazy was conspiracy theories that are never true.
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*Sheth, stupid autocorrect.
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I'm back y'all. I still want risk dead, and that's who I'll be voting in the lynch for.
Not sure on the election mechanics...so whoever gets first place will get the Secretary of Defense and whoever gets 2nd gets the Surgeon General, is that right?
Sheth: If I had to call down the thunder, it would be on risk.nuke 100%.
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United States2095 Posts
Ok, as I'm reading through everyones filter I want to bring up two points that haven't been brought up yet.
I think theres a chance mafia can mess with our Lynch like they messed with our Election. So I'd like to have a backup lynch discussion as well.
Secondly I think we need a third person who we would vote in, in case Mafia can remove one election candidate again.
I geuss as another point, bumatlarge please do what VisceraEyes did; re-read what you can when you can and comment on what you think about it.
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EPT
