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I think we have two good targets: xsk and Adam (and possibly Jay) but at least there's just one lurker in the game, so lynching Bbyte is somewhat okay.
I've been very vocal about my views on policy lynches and starting another discussion on LAL won't do town any good, so I won't repeat myself. But I really think that it gives mafia an easy ride. Look at how happy xsk was to jump on it - and he's going to be asleep until the deadline, so he won't be changing his vote for a proper lynch.
Obviously, I'm a minority on policies, so you can do it - but I have no reasons to consider Bbyte mafia and lynching mafia is my priority.
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Okay, I'll get some dinner and then update my views on xsk and Adam before going to bed.
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So, I want to lynch xsk for reprimading Blazinghand when Blazinghand was pushing the town forward; for switching from calling out Blazinghand on being too aggressive to being really aggressive himself with no proper reason (and without pushing the town agenda forward); for "pressuring" people but making sure they know that he is happy to unvote them; for jumping on the Bbyte lynch (the easy lynch at the time) after he saw that no one is happy with going after one of the players who looks a lot like town, Tunkeg. I didn't like how he defended himself yesterday (claiming that it's unfair to accuse him of not chasing mafia because he's been doing analysis... just not sharing it with us) but what followed was even worse: tunneling on EB, trying to discredit Tunkeg, and then going after the lurker. Where are his other reads?
I'll post on Adam in a bit.
Also, I think that if you consider one of the lynch candidates to be mafia, you should go for him. If you think that we are unlikely to catch some mafia tonight, by all means do vote for Bbyte the lurker.
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On December 06 2011 04:54 ElectricBlack wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2011 04:26 xtfftc wrote: Okay, I'll get some dinner and then update my views on xsk and Adam before going to bed. I think you're scum too. What do you think about that? I think that staying away from the main discussion and calling out some people in such an offhand manner doesn't help town. I have been very open about my views and have been trying to catch mafia. If we lynch xsk or Adam and it turns out one of them is a townie, I'll be under extra scrutiny because I argued agaisnt lynching a lurker in favour of them. My reads are out there for everyone to analyse but you chose not to do so, which I am rather disappointed by.. I don't see how such arrogant play is good for town. You don't attempt to start a discussion about me and you don't join in ours. All you do is throw in some bold statements four hours before the deadline.
There's more important things to do, so I'm just going to ignore you until you bother posting a case on me.
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Pretty much all I have on Adam is based on two of his posts that push pro-mafia agenda. Now that I think about it, I have a much stronger case on ey215, even though I decided to leave him for day 2. I don't have enough to convince Adam on my own and it seems that most of the others are happy to lurk or to vote for lynching Bbyte.
Here's what I wrote on Adam earlier in case you're lazy and can't be bothered to check it out: + Show Spoiler +On December 05 2011 07:28 xtfftc wrote:* Adam posted something rather anti-town earleir though: Show nested quote +I am all for lynching anyone who scum slips or is caught in an outright lie, as they're almost sure to be mafia. There's two problems with this quote. The first one is that this is exactly what mafia want. They want to focus on someone saying one stupid thing and lynch that person. Ask your coaches if you don't agree with me: lynching someone over a single "scumslip" tends to be main reason why towns lynch an innocent on Day 1. The second is that he mixes a "scum slip" and "an outright lie". We had a lot of talk about LaL and a lot of you disagree with me. You want a strict policy on it and although I think it favours mafia, it can also help town, so it's okay. What is not okay is trying to tie "scumslipping" to the same policy without holding a proper discussion on what we consider to be a scumslip and what we consider to be someone overreacting over bad wording. This is very pro-mafia as it gives them an easy way to push for lynches. On December 06 2011 02:30 xtfftc wrote:Answering to what's been directed at me for first, then I'll re-read today's posts more carefully. Show nested quote +On December 05 2011 23:48 Adam4167 wrote:On December 05 2011 17:59 xtfftc wrote: I'm on my phone at lunch, so I'll be brief for now. I think that Bke is the easy lynch at the momenand Ipm glad we have bettee targets now. Byte is my top lurker and he'd make an okay lynch if we end up looking at the lurkers. Xskc looks a bit beteer but he still hasn't lived up to his early play.
I'll make sure not to throw away my votw for an unlikely candidate by voting for someone who wont get lynched like I did in xlvii and I encourage everyone to do the sa,e. Also, remember that last minute changes tend to help mafia. Out of the two best candidates I find Adam's dwfence much better (he is at least giving usomethimg to analyse), so I'll probably go for BE. I missed this post earlier through all the xsksc/EB drama. Xtfftc, are you encouraging bandwagons with the section I have bolded? I cast my vote in Jaybrundage's direction, even though I am the only one that's taken even the slightest bit of interest in him besides Tunkeg, because to do otherwise would be at odds with my analysis and reads. Good townie's should not be casting their vote based on the probability that the person will get lynched, they should be voting on whomever they have scum reads on regardless of the current vote situation. Yes, Adam, you caught me: I'm encouraging bandwagons........................ Voting for someone who isn't going to get lynched is very pro-mafia behaviour. I did this in XLVII - I didn't like the main targets, so I tried to push some others (one of whom turned out to be mafia but that's was irrelevant at the time because he wasn't going to get lynched), then went to bed before making up my mind who of the main candidates to go for and basically ended up throwing away my vote. I got torn to pieces by the veterans after the game ended. WBG also tried to push for my lynch after the vote solely because of this - and he had every reason to. If you are mafia and you see that the main lynch candidates are town, it is very easy to vote for someone else in order to avoid being scrutinised after the flip. When you have to justify your vote for one of the main targets, you have to take sides, which allows others to have a better read on you. Also, if you're mafia in this situation, you can vote for one of your teammates to prepare yourself for later if he gets lynched. I wouldn't be surprised if it turnes out that you are bussing a teammate to gain some town cred, so I'll be looking closely at Jay as well. You just earned yourself a lot of red points. Not only for using terrible logic but also for trying to scare town for voting for someone who will get lynched. Just to clarify my terrible wording: "but also for trying to scare town for voting for someone who will get lynched" was a bit of an overreaction to him being unhappy with my original statement. I wrote "I'll make sure not to throw away my votw for an unlikely candidate by voting for someone who wont get lynched like I did in xlvii and I encourage everyone to do the sa,e." Adam responded with "Xtfftc, are you encouraging bandwagons with the section I have bolded?" This is very pro-mafia. Town has to consolidate their votes sooner or later because if we don't, mafia can easily swing the lynch one way or another. "Bandwagonning" sounds like a bad thing to do, so implying that not throwing away your vote is bandwagonning is a mafia thing to do.
I'll check the thread again before going to bed.
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On December 06 2011 06:02 jaybrundage wrote: xtffc you still havent told me why you think im mafia and again if you think adam is bussing me (really) then why would i try to buss him back its makes no sense comon give me something you too BH get on here and post I didn't say you're mafia, I said I'll have a closer look at and you'll be able to read about it when I'm ready with it.
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I'm going to bed, so I'm voting for Bbyte. It's not ideal but it's better than some unpleasant last minute surprise.
##Unvote: xsksc
##Vote: BByte
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On December 06 2011 07:18 ey215 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2011 07:11 jaybrundage wrote:ey are you planning on voting for hassybaby. So far bbyte is gonna get lynched regardless unless we have a change.I would still like to see his defense. But so far it doesnt look good. But honestly last minute switches always put me at unease. I still plan to stick to adam i would like to see what he has to say about whats going on so far. And EB if you think adam is not a good candidate plz state why this post. On December 06 2011 05:45 ElectricBlack wrote: reconsider that, he's the worst candidate. Isn't going to change anything. Put in some content i would like to see more of your thoughts. But besides Hassybaby's case which was actually pretty good. And you arguing with xsksc which granted showed that you can post very well when you want too. Why give me this one liner it's not gonna change anything I voted for BByte on the lurker/not contributing line of reasoning. I was really hoping we wouldn't have to use it, but if someone's inactive even if town they're not really doing us any good. ..................................... Town doesn't lynch people for being bad. Town lynches people for being mafia. It's not like we get free lynches for the useless and the lurkers; it's the mafia who managed to distract town well enough and they're getting a free kill tonight as a reward.
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On December 06 2011 07:34 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2011 07:28 xtfftc wrote:On December 06 2011 07:18 ey215 wrote:On December 06 2011 07:11 jaybrundage wrote:ey are you planning on voting for hassybaby. So far bbyte is gonna get lynched regardless unless we have a change.I would still like to see his defense. But so far it doesnt look good. But honestly last minute switches always put me at unease. I still plan to stick to adam i would like to see what he has to say about whats going on so far. And EB if you think adam is not a good candidate plz state why this post. On December 06 2011 05:45 ElectricBlack wrote: reconsider that, he's the worst candidate. Isn't going to change anything. Put in some content i would like to see more of your thoughts. But besides Hassybaby's case which was actually pretty good. And you arguing with xsksc which granted showed that you can post very well when you want too. Why give me this one liner it's not gonna change anything I voted for BByte on the lurker/not contributing line of reasoning. I was really hoping we wouldn't have to use it, but if someone's inactive even if town they're not really doing us any good. ..................................... Town doesn't lynch people for being bad. Town lynches people for being mafia. It's not like we get free lynches for the useless and the lurkers; it's the mafia who managed to distract town well enough and they're getting a free kill tonight as a reward. That's a fair point. On the other hand, BByte is so silent there's no way we'd ever know he's Mafia. He's not like an "omg I went afk for several days" lurker, he's a "I make like 3-4 no-content posts, spread out over the course of the day, and am trying to look active but really am not" lurker. I see two options here: 1) BByte is a lurking mafia guy 2) BByte is just a somewhat inneffective townie Now, granted, (2) is a possibility. And honestly I'd rather lynch a mafia guy than a non-mafia guy. But currently, I think BByte the lurker is more likely to be mafia than any of my existing reads. If you can convince me otherwise, then I'll vote for those guys. That being said, my vote stands. I'm trying to make the best out of a no/low information situation here.
On December 06 2011 07:35 Velinath wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2011 07:28 xtfftc wrote:On December 06 2011 07:18 ey215 wrote:On December 06 2011 07:11 jaybrundage wrote:ey are you planning on voting for hassybaby. So far bbyte is gonna get lynched regardless unless we have a change.I would still like to see his defense. But so far it doesnt look good. But honestly last minute switches always put me at unease. I still plan to stick to adam i would like to see what he has to say about whats going on so far. And EB if you think adam is not a good candidate plz state why this post. On December 06 2011 05:45 ElectricBlack wrote: reconsider that, he's the worst candidate. Isn't going to change anything. Put in some content i would like to see more of your thoughts. But besides Hassybaby's case which was actually pretty good. And you arguing with xsksc which granted showed that you can post very well when you want too. Why give me this one liner it's not gonna change anything I voted for BByte on the lurker/not contributing line of reasoning. I was really hoping we wouldn't have to use it, but if someone's inactive even if town they're not really doing us any good. ..................................... Town doesn't lynch people for being bad. Town lynches people for being mafia. It's not like we get free lynches for the useless and the lurkers; it's the mafia who managed to distract town well enough and they're getting a free kill tonight as a reward. I guess the question is whether or not you think the town can reach a clear consensus on the candidates we've been debating as scum today. If we can't - and I don't think we can - it's best to have a clear majority on a candidate to, as you said, prevent any late-night surprises.
I agree, which is why I voted for Bbyte already... It's frustrating though. Even if he flips town, it'll be a lucky lynch. :/
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Just came back from work. Do you guys reckon I should post my new analysis now or closer to the deadline? Usually we would like to keep the discussion going but considering that pretty much everyone else is happy to lurk today, I wonder whether I should post close to the deadline to make it harder for the mafia to switch if they want to.
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I wasn't asking about discussing things during the night; this is something town should always do. The mafia love keeping quiet during the night because there's much less pressure to vote after the lynch - but if we engage in a discussion, they would be forced to do so. Just like my other views about policies and general town play, you can confirm my consistency on the issue by checking xlvii where I was town.. And I recall that I had a huge argument with vader about it, and he rolled mafia. He used the same argument you're using: that they will have less information this way, and it's totally wrong: it's not like the information they have from Day 1 suddenly becomes invalid. You said it earlier: mafia have more information than us at the moment, so we should try to increase the amount of information we have by all means at the moment. That's some red points for you, BH.
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On December 06 2011 09:52 ElectricBlack wrote: Is no one but me concerned with the ease this wagon is being pushed.
Can we please switch to Hassybaby, which is much more likely to be a good lynch.
On December 06 2011 10:09 ElectricBlack wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2011 10:01 jaybrundage wrote: Atm i wouldnt vote hassybaby for the same reason i didn't vote Bbyte. Hassybaby has not been able to defend himself. And now that Bbyte is hear hes came to late to defend himself. I hope hes mafia but i dont have a good feeling about this. And I think you're the last scum That's it, jaybrundage, xtf, hassy. Game solved. Next one?
Look at these two posts. At first, EB is concerned about the Bbyte wagon being pushed too easily, and 17 minutes later he proclaimed that he has solved the game and accused jay, Hassy, and me. However, Hassy never posted on or voted for Bbyte; I've been arguing against lynching a lurker on the grounds that it is too easy for mafia all game long and did my best to get someone else's case going; and Jay sort of went against it (although with some dumb reasoning. Yes, a lurker isn't going to be around to defend himself... this is why he is getting lynched in the first place, because he hasn't been contributing enough). So EB says that he is concerned about the Bbyte wagon - and then proceeds in a completely different direction, ignoring his own statement from earlier.
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Also, why are the red points red points now but weren't red points 20 minutes ago?
On December 07 2011 03:31 Blazinghand wrote: Basically, why come at me now for my position when, relative to you, my position has become closer? If anything, I moved form an unfavorable position (thinking we shouldn't post at night) to a favorable position (our night posts should be closer to the deadline). If it was reasonable to call me out for this, it became LESS reasonable in the 20 minutes between your two posts.
On December 07 2011 03:33 Blazinghand wrote: UHN YEAH THATS RIGHT WHATCHA GONNA SAY NOW MR INCONSISTENT
My first post wasn't directed at you but at everyone and in my second post I focused on your position on the issue and awared you your red points. I would like you to re-read my posts carefully and inform me if you still see any inconsistency. See, you've bolded the wrong part of my post.
It shouldn't be
On December 07 2011 03:01 xtfftc wrote: Just came back from work. Do you guys reckon I should post my new analysis now or closer to the deadline? Usually we would like to keep the discussion going but considering that pretty much everyone else is happy to lurk today, I wonder whether I should post close to the deadline to make it harder for the mafia to switch if they want to.
Instead, it should be
On December 07 2011 03:01 xtfftc wrote: Just came back from work. Do you guys reckon I should post my new analysis now or closer to the deadline? Usually we would like to keep the discussion going but considering that pretty much everyone else is happy to lurk today, I wonder whether I should post close to the deadline to make it harder for the mafia to switch if they want to.
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On December 07 2011 03:42 Blazinghand wrote: On the other hand, he says we should talk at night so I guess that's Green points amirite Nope. It's red points if you use bad logic about something like this but it's not green points if you post pro-town on something as general because that's what good mafia are likely to do anyway.
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On December 07 2011 03:50 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 03:47 xtfftc wrote:Also, why are the red points red points now but weren't red points 20 minutes ago? On December 07 2011 03:31 Blazinghand wrote: Basically, why come at me now for my position when, relative to you, my position has become closer? If anything, I moved form an unfavorable position (thinking we shouldn't post at night) to a favorable position (our night posts should be closer to the deadline). If it was reasonable to call me out for this, it became LESS reasonable in the 20 minutes between your two posts. On December 07 2011 03:33 Blazinghand wrote: UHN YEAH THATS RIGHT WHATCHA GONNA SAY NOW MR INCONSISTENT My first post wasn't directed at you but at everyone and in my second post I focused on your position on the issue and awared you your red points. I would like you to re-read my posts carefully and inform me if you still see any inconsistency. See, you've bolded the wrong part of my post. It shouldn't be On December 07 2011 03:01 xtfftc wrote: Just came back from work. Do you guys reckon I should post my new analysis now or closer to the deadline? Usually we would like to keep the discussion going but considering that pretty much everyone else is happy to lurk today, I wonder whether I should post close to the deadline to make it harder for the mafia to switch if they want to. Instead, it should be On December 07 2011 03:01 xtfftc wrote: Just came back from work. Do you guys reckon I should post my new analysis now or closer to the deadline? Usually we would like to keep the discussion going but considering that pretty much everyone else is happy to lurk today, I wonder whether I should post close to the deadline to make it harder for the mafia to switch if they want to. You still haven't answered my question. Decent dodge though. Why didn't I earn red points previously? Why wait to call me out until my position became more moderate?
I did answer it. I wrote "My first post wasn't directed at you but at everyone and in my second post I focused on your position on the issue and awared you your red points." I came back from work, posted my question, and went on to read the thread to look for stuff to analyse while waiting for people to react. You did, so I replied to you. Dunno how you see anything wrong with it.
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On December 07 2011 03:55 Blazinghand wrote: Tonight the mafia may have already made their decision, but if we can get the same info without exposing ourselves more by delaying an analysis post another hour, is that really a bad idea? One thought would be that we need as much information as possible, but I'm not saying we shouldn't have the info, just that a minor delay is good. Five hours is what we're talking about here.
Yes, because it's not just about your own analysis. It's about your analysis and everyone else reacting to (or ignoring) it. An isolated read isn't as good as being able to analyse people's responces.
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On December 07 2011 04:02 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 03:59 xtfftc wrote:On December 07 2011 03:50 Blazinghand wrote:On December 07 2011 03:47 xtfftc wrote:Also, why are the red points red points now but weren't red points 20 minutes ago? On December 07 2011 03:31 Blazinghand wrote: Basically, why come at me now for my position when, relative to you, my position has become closer? If anything, I moved form an unfavorable position (thinking we shouldn't post at night) to a favorable position (our night posts should be closer to the deadline). If it was reasonable to call me out for this, it became LESS reasonable in the 20 minutes between your two posts. On December 07 2011 03:33 Blazinghand wrote: UHN YEAH THATS RIGHT WHATCHA GONNA SAY NOW MR INCONSISTENT My first post wasn't directed at you but at everyone and in my second post I focused on your position on the issue and awared you your red points. I would like you to re-read my posts carefully and inform me if you still see any inconsistency. See, you've bolded the wrong part of my post. It shouldn't be On December 07 2011 03:01 xtfftc wrote: Just came back from work. Do you guys reckon I should post my new analysis now or closer to the deadline? Usually we would like to keep the discussion going but considering that pretty much everyone else is happy to lurk today, I wonder whether I should post close to the deadline to make it harder for the mafia to switch if they want to. Instead, it should be On December 07 2011 03:01 xtfftc wrote: Just came back from work. Do you guys reckon I should post my new analysis now or closer to the deadline? Usually we would like to keep the discussion going but considering that pretty much everyone else is happy to lurk today, I wonder whether I should post close to the deadline to make it harder for the mafia to switch if they want to. You still haven't answered my question. Decent dodge though. Why didn't I earn red points previously? Why wait to call me out until my position became more moderate? I did answer it. I wrote "My first post wasn't directed at you but at everyone and in my second post I focused on your position on the issue and awared you your red points." I came back from work, posted my question, and went on to read the thread to look for stuff to analyse while waiting for people to react. You did, so I replied to you. Dunno how you see anything wrong with it. Ah, ok. That's a fair point. The initial post was made not having read my post, and the second post was made not being aware of my position that it's up to you and that delaying has some advantages. What do you think of my defense of the "delay posting analysis" idea? So far you've said it's "Red Points" because it was suggested by V7, but that's not an adequate criticism. I think that one of the few things we can do to inhibit mafia information inflow is to delay night analysis posts until the end of the night. Does this reduce our info? no. But it inhibits the mafia.
This is what I posted first (just before mentioning Vader):
On December 07 2011 03:22 xtfftc wrote: The mafia love keeping quiet during the night because there's much less pressure to vote after the lynch - but if we engage in a discussion, they would be forced to do so.
And also, the post just above this one where I clarified it again.
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This means that at night, we have no new info to work off of. Nightkills/blues' results/post-night claims are important new information but our main source of information is people's posts. This is why I put so much emphasis on discussion, even if we go in circles and re-analyse the same posts we've already analysed.
And yeah, agreed with Grackaroni's last two posts.
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On December 07 2011 04:17 Blazinghand wrote: That being said, I consider it unfair to call someone scum based on a difference opinion, but it's probably just a novice mistake on xft's part. I didn't call you scum, I just gave you some red points ^^ And the red points weren't about your opinion but about you not being logical enough on the issue in question. Overall I rated your town play so far as good, so when you said something that doesn't make a lot of sense (it does a bit but it ignores the bigger issue), it is much worse than it would have been if someone who's been playing as a bad townie says it. And the whole idea of the red and green "points" is that I expect townies to make some small mistakes that can be called scummy (which is one of the reasons why I argued against earlier was the "lynch all liars/scumslips" thing earlier). Especially with this being a newbie game...
I'm going to the shop/do a work-out/take a shower and then I'll have a look at the thread unless I fall asleep in the meantime. Stay safe tonight!
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I'm back from work and going through the thread now. I will call things out as they see them because otherwise it will end up being a gigantic wall of text.
This post and the next few are a wtf?! moment. BH, stop spamming the thread like this, even during slower times of the day.
On December 07 2011 05:04 Blazinghand wrote: All my scumreads were mild, and I don't think we could have increased the probability that we'd lynch a mafia guy in any meaningful fashion by lynching someone different. I don't think anyone was really able to say "this guy here is a mafia" and be justified. We also demonstrated a willingness to lynch lurkers, and I'm sure we will continue to aggressively attack people for lurking in the future. This sets a dangerous precedent for mafia members, who feel pressured to both lurk and now to not lurk. What if another townie starts lurking? Do we lynch him on day 2? Or do we give lurkers a free pass from now on, allowing the mafia to stay out of the spotlight?
[QUOTE]On December 07 2011 06:30 Velinath wrote: I must admit I didn't expect people to jump over and start voting BByte as easily as they did. A couple people even said that they had decent scumreads but "because nobody's going to vote for them, I'll just vote for BByte". This is a little bit of a matter for concern. I don't know whether it's just town complacency or actual suspicious behaviour, but either way people need to step up and push their reads.
[spoiler][QUOTE]On December 06 2011 07:26 xtfftc wrote: I'm going to bed, so I'm voting for Bbyte. It's not ideal but it's better than some unpleasant last minute surprise.
##Unvote: xsksc
##Vote: BByte
[/QUOTE] What are you on about? Thanks for picking just one of my posts on the issue, while ignoring the overall context. I was fighting on my own to lynch someone we had a proper case on for quite some time and only gave up a few hours before the deadline when it became obvious that the rest of you would rather lurk than join in the discussion.
And what makes this post even worse is that later in your analysis you make the same point on xsksc I made after he jumped on the Bbyte wagon.
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