TL Mafia XLVII - Page 146

bumatlarge

United States4567 Posts

November 29 2011 06:11 GMT

#2901

On November 29 2011 15:05 Kenpachi wrote:
lol. ok w/e. your accusation is pretty bad cause Id say the fact that bum is attacking me is quite scummy itself since im a pretty easy target for mafia. He also was very shady in his posts by not backing up anything he says. I believe i said everything possible about bum at the moment.

"I'm so easy to lynch because I am scum"

Do you ever think to yourself, "why?" If you can do an analysis similar to what you did on me to one other person, I'll take my vote off you until I can get a proper read on you. I don't care what the verdict is, just do something without having to be prodded to.

Steveling

Greece10806 Posts

November 29 2011 06:14 GMT

#2902

Just remember guys that we don't need to martyr Ace.
He was a towny but he might very well be off about his predictions.

Kenpachi

United States9908 Posts

November 29 2011 06:16 GMT

#2903

On November 29 2011 15:11 bumatlarge wrote:

Show nested quote +

k challenge accepted

Kenpachi

United States9908 Posts

November 29 2011 06:16 GMT

#2904

ill do it tmrw. im going to sleep

sinani206

United States1959 Posts

November 29 2011 06:27 GMT

#2905

The REAL Explanation for why wherebugsgo is scum

Holy shit I haven't done one of these in a while. I think my last real analysis was a bus in XXXIX, my first game. That kinda sucks.

I'm going to all of wbgs significant posts. At the end of my analysis, I will piece all that I find into a conclusion that proves he is Mafia.

The time is currently Tuesday, Nov 29 5:15am GMT (GMT+00:00)

Wherebugsgo's first post:

On November 25 2011 05:12 wherebugsgo wrote:
ATTENTION

I'll make this short and sweet, and omit fluff, since fluff is only good if it's GM daypost fluff.

1. I don't care if you all want to make me mayor, as I'm not going to be explicitly running. However, know that I will be a very active scumhunter as long as I am alive (for obvious reasons). Vote me if you don't trust the other candidates.

The first item of his first post: A half-run for mayor. This allows you to be flexible and either retain or discard his candidate-hood based on how he is doing. This non-committal-ness seems pretty fishy, however.

2. I don't intend to direct blues this game, but I can provide general ideas for how blues should try to approach the game. We should not be relying on blues, we should be relying on the application of logic and reasoning to behavioral analysis of players in this game. I like BC's idea for confirming sanities, though. The faster we can confirm the sanities of the detectives the better, but there's no foolproof way to do that. The best way would be a plan similar to BC's, though, IMO.

I agree with this part. We should help newbs learn how to play but not take control of them.

3. I will read the thread often and thoroughly. I suggest you all do the same, as even after reading the thread 3 times you still miss things.

Nothing wrong with this.

4. I will only support mayoral candidates who are coherent, active, and show a willingness to catch scum. Day 1 lynch is priority.

This is obvious. Do you think that we want you to vote support "bad" mayoral candidates? Obviously not.

5. With that said, my #1 scumread for today is youngminii.

Here we go.

From what I understand, he's a vet player who hasn't played here in a while. He has devoted his entire time in game so far to derailing Palmar's campaign. However, one gem stood out to me in particular:

Show nested quote +

He defends himself with this:

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Actually, yeah, that WAS in your original argument, youngminii.

Nice fail copout.

I will support a mayor who is coherent, logical, an active scumhunter, and who wants to lynch someone I think is scum on day 1. A good target would be youngminii.

Good analysis for day 1 with the contradiction, I guess. Not much to comment on here.

If you don't like the current candidates, vote me if you'd like, I'll do my best to do all of those things. I'll be voting sandro for now though; he strikes me as town so far and Palmar has enough momentum and votes to carry him to mayor (I think he's a fine candidate too). Let's ensure scum don't get to office. That's really all I care about, ultimately.

Again with the "if you'd like". And then you even say that you like BOTH of the main candidates opposing you. You looks like you are trying to "play it safe" by appealing to everyone

If we have reasons to believe Palmar or sandro are scum, please make them public immediately.

Overall this post is pretty good, with a few questionable topics mixed in. A somewhat typical first post that greatly contributes to discussion--or does it? This post actually is kissing everyone's ass to try to gain towncred. He is being welcoming towards newer players and says he thinks all of the candidates are good. Not necessarily saying that this is scummy, but it does give us a hint at his playstyle.

Wherebugsgo's next few posts show us that he wants a powerful mayor, and also that he "despises shitty logic." He believes that both Nisani's and younminii's logic is shitty. Actually, more than a few. For ten posts, wherebugsgo is saying the same thing over and over again, possibly even spamming up the thread.

Then comes this post:

On November 25 2011 06:54 wherebugsgo wrote:

Show nested quote +

you've had a change of heart because you're afraid of getting lynched day 1?

BC "reeks of scum" solely because of his detective/rolecop plan, which actually is, IMO, a pretty damn good idea?

I think the smell you experience is the one emanating from yourself.

He is still tunneling yougminii, seeing everything he does as scummy. Changing one's mind is not scummy. He assumes that ym changed it because he's afraid of getting lynched. Well what if he just realized how stupid he was being? Also, because wbg thinks BC's plan is amazing, does that mean that anyone who thinks it is bad is scum? No, not at all. Discuss the plan, don't call someone mafia for disliking it.

Here are some examples of wherebugsgo's next few posts:

On November 25 2011 08:00 wherebugsgo wrote:
lol I have a feeling there's gonna be a massive veteran player genocide on n1

On November 25 2011 08:39 wherebugsgo wrote:
omg all the noobs voting sinani lolol

On November 25 2011 09:10 wherebugsgo wrote:

Show nested quote +

bad player is bad

He just sits at his computer and spams up the thread for over an hour. What's the point of this? To use one of wbg's own phrases: "Useless posts are useless."

Next post:

On November 25 2011 09:24 wherebugsgo wrote:

Show nested quote +

Youngminii is the one who pointed out Palmar is good at scum, which is precisely why I don't think the attack on Palmar is worth listening to.

But yeah, that answers it well, and I like your answers.

Just because someone one dislikes started something doesn't mean that it can't be supported by other people along the way. Youngminii's logic may not have been great, but it was built on to create the final (at this time) case on Palmar.

On November 25 2011 19:27 wherebugsgo wrote:
Yeah I just finished reading that after I finished that post. I was reading backward into the thread lol.

I'll address the plan stuff in detail at the end of this post, as I actually have a solution to some of the concerns. However, it requires that we get around 5-10 good scumreads by the end of today. So, I will start with that.

I have four decent scumreads already.

#1 is youngminii. I've already stated why he is scummy, look into my filter if you desire a reiteration. If anyone has questions, please ask. If he ends up being the day 1 lynch then obviously we can't use him in this plan, but if not I think he should be in there.

Still tunneling, I see

#2 is Erandorr.

Erandorr is scummy because he has done nothing to push his mayoral candidacy. He said, in his campaign post, that he would be active and transparent. He has been neither; he has not been playing his "new style," he's been gone this entire time. Beyond that first post, he's done nothing. Good bet for this plan, IMO.

You seem like you're picking random names out a hat here and forcing analysis to kill those who you think are a threat to you as scum (i.e. Blues).

#3 is Blind_Rawr. He showed up, said "things are getting interesting really fast" and then was gone. He was enthusiastic to play but he's been completely absent. He's done nothing. Good bet for a shot n1, and I bet even a lurker vig could shoot him if he's still relatively inactive by then.

Many other people said the same thing; why pick on BR? Maybe because the rest are all your scumbuddies.

#4 is prplhz. His mayoral candidacy was bad, as people have pointed out already (primarily supersoft.) It was aimed at minimizing mistakes, something that generally only scum want to do. Prpl knows this well himself, he's not super dumb. He's been getting better and more confident recently too, so I really doubt he would actually consciously push that as town. I think he's more likely to be scum than town at this point.

What's wrong with helping newbies to minimize mistakes? I'm sure that even if this is terrible, prplhz was just saying that in his post to get newbs who don't want to fail to vote for him. This is most definitely a forced accusation, as yourpicked one thing out of his post, disregarding the rest, and said it was why he was scum.

My Addendum to BC's Plan:

Optimally, we get like 4-6 more scumreads so that we can get a good list of around 8-10 people we want dead. Indeed, they don't all have to be checked n1. Some can be checked n1, some can be checked n2.

Essentially, the way I imagine it working is like this:

Step 1: We assign each player on the list of potential scum a number.

Let's imagine that our list is this:

1. youngminii
2. prplhz
3. Erandorr
4. Blind_Rawr

So, what we do is this: any DT who accepts the plan who is in the top 1/4 of players will check youngminii. This would be any DT in this list:

+ Show Spoiler +

1.) Erandorr
2.) Tyrran
3.) kitaman27
4.) sandroba
5.) bonifaceviii
6.) Kurumi
7.) BLinD-RawR
8.) tnkted
9.) GreYMisT
10.) Serejai
11.) Toadesstern
12.) tube
13.) redFF
14.) Vain
15.) eezyBash
16.) Mattchew
17.) Jackal58
18.) Belial-
19.) Palmar
20.) MrZentor

Step 2: Coordinate the DTs on n1 and n2

Any DT who is in the second quarter will check #2, prplhz. So, that means, any DT in this list:

+ Show Spoiler +

21.) Risen
22.) Nokarot
23,) risk.nuke
24.) minus_human
25.) IMABUNNEH
26.) wherebugsgo
27.) dukethegold
28.) iLoveKT
29.) mcht
30.) ohN
31.) The1stNewbie
32.) t3tsubo
33.) cosine
34.) xtfftc
35.) DeadlyPsycho
36.) hyshes
37.) Chanyman
38.) Drazerk
39.) Penke
40.) ey215

And so on.

Statistically it is equally likely for our DTs to be in any one of these lists.

Once we split it 8-10 ways with 8-10 different players, we actually have it even better.

On n1, have all the DTs in the top quarter/fifth flip a coin and pick either player #1 or player #2. Have all the players in the second quarter/fifth flip a coin and pick either #3 or #4, and so on. On n2, have all the DTs pick the other player.

This type of random DT check mechanism makes it incredibly hard for scum to manipulate. All the DTs will be guaranteed two checks, with many of them having both checks flip on day 3. We can even lynch into the list to ensure that at least one player flips by day 3.

Step 3: Coordinate the vigilantes on n2.

We do the same exact thing with the vigges on n2. The vigilantes can't shoot till n2. That's fine. We have them shoot with the same mechanism, into the list of players. Some DTs will hopefully have two flipped targets. Some will have only one, but that's still good. Millers will flip as miller. Scum will flip scum. Most misleading mechanics will be dealt with. Framing will only work for the targets that live, and with this plan most of them should die.

Vigilantes who shoot into the list and their target does not die MUST CLAIM THE SHOT IMMEDIATELY. This means that their target was protected, and in this plan the only people who are protected are scum, since it would be moronic for a town doctor to be protecting into a public list of scumreads.

This plan will optimally give a majority of our DTs their sanity checks by day 3, and it will eliminate most of the players we think are scummy based on analysis. That's really good.

We can also add lurkers to this list and use the lurker vigges as well. We'd have to intersperse them a little more, but it would work similarly to how the DTs would check. If the list is half lurker scummy and half non lurker scummy then the lurker vigges can shoot the lurkies and the regulars can shoot the actives.

Questions, concerns?

Plan is fine here, but the list is scummy as fuck.

A whole bunch of DT sanity posts that I guess are part of discussion.

Here's the sandroba analysis:

On November 26 2011 05:31 wherebugsgo wrote:

Why Sandroba is Scum

I'm going to work backwards into the thread, since I've been working like that this game.

Show nested quote +

Okay, look at this lynch choice. It's sinani206. Anyone who has played a game here before will know that sinani206 is one of the hardest players to get a read on because his style of play is, quite frankly, terrible. The first two games I played with him, I was kinda surprised anyone could be that bad, but he has proved himself in consistency.

For all you new players, now that you have this fact, this is called a meta argument. You make the case for or against a player based on how their play this game matches to their play in a previous game. You should show how their play is different in either a scum-oriented or town-oriented manner (depending on what you see). You could also use a meta argument to draw similarities from past games. The ultimate conclusion is that you take the alignment from the past game and apply the meta argument to either conclude the player is the same, or the opposite alignment.

We see in this post that sandroba says that sinani is playing differently this game compared to games he has played as town in the past. This is false. In fact, this is completely wrong, so much so, in fact, that I am shocked sandro is even trying to push this lynch on day 1. Sinani is best left to a lurker bane shot. Why the hell would we waste a lynch on him?

What's most shocking is that sandro says sinani doesn't troll when he is town. This is shocking because sandro played a game hosted by Ace, not even 2 months ago, in which sinani trolled so hard that half the town raged and lynched him.

The game I am talking about is Some Mafia Game, hosted by Ace.

Here is sinani's filter from that game.

What was sinani's alignment in SMG? Town.

Yet, he made posts like this gem:

Show nested quote +

and this one:

Show nested quote +

and this one:

Show nested quote +

....you get the idea.

The worst part about this is that sandroba actually played in this same game. He was town with myself and sinani. Yet, he is using the argument that sinani is trolling this game to call him scum. I think not.

That's the most damning evidence. I don't have much to add, I'll just ask sandro a couple questions:

Show nested quote +

On November 24 2011 23:37 sandroba wrote:

On November 24 2011 21:15 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Long wall with poor DT plan that doesn't adress my question.

I'd like you to answer my question.

About the DT plan: That does not help shit. First because DTs are extremelly unreliable this game, because there are 4 counter DT measures in place, which is down right crazy by the host (sanity/millers/framers/gf). DTs should definetely not claim early on since their usefulness will grow imensely as the game goes on. When early on a check by a DT is worth almost nothing in this game, several checks couple with analysis later can certainly turn a game, since statistically, the bulk of your checks are way harder to be tempered with. That means any plans trying to stablish early sanity of DTs are useless, especially when you point them to a list, allowing it to be tempered with at much more ease. What DTs should be doing is breadcrumbing their checks (that means you use a clever way to say someone is town/scum without revealing you are DT; you should be careful not to confuse town about your checks in case you die) everyday so we can have the checks in case he gets shot. We should be able to deduce the parity by seeing previous flips.

To answer some questions people asked me:
What differentiates me from other vets is that I normally have really good reads. Palmar, if town is a good scumhunter too and he does seem town to me so far. Someone asked me "what if you are scum never perform the kills?". If I was scum, at some point, even if it took being the last from the scum team, I would have to shoot. We have to kill all scum to win, so the possibility that I would never appear in the clues as scum doesn't exist, unless scum wins with more than one player left.
The fact is, were I scum I would be lynched way before that point, because I'm taking full acountability here. If I'm using dubious reasoning and getting townies lynched, I fully expect the town to lynch me, but that won't happen. I will always provide ample analysis and reasoning on the subjects I think are scum and if I used flawed logic I expect many players here to identify it.
The truth is that elected roles almost always end up being lynched before the game ends. That makes me a good mayor, because I offer accountability. Palmar is also a good option, because if he is scum, it will show soon through his actions. Other people that are running are way more suceptible of making mistakes and getting mislynched if they are town.

Alright. Sandro, I have two questions.

In blue:

If you think DTs should be able to determine their parity from previous flips, why do you insist that a plan that gifts them these required flips is bad? That's actually fairly contradictory.

In red:

Lastly, since you normally have stellar scumreads, why is it that you have played so cautiously so far to only condemn one person, with that one person being, of all people, sinani206?

You defend youngminii and you buddy up with syllo, who is being incredibly lazy right now. He's being so lazy he didn't even bother running for mayor. I can understand from PYP, where we had PMs, he might not have wanted to run after Mig+Radfield started running, but in this game he just blindly supports you. There are no PMs to confirm your identities through personal means in this game.

I know you guys might have similar mentalities, but the fact that you are both doing strange things is really unsettling. It could mean one of you is scum and buddying up to the other, but it could also mean both of you are scum. Syllo hasn't posted terribly much yet (aforementioned laziness) but I wouldn't be so surprised to see both of you as scum.

Palmar, you can take sandro as an addition to the list if you'd like. This is my analysis.

I'm going to comment here on this one, because I have less specific things to say.
So this analysis is about how sandroba is scum because he wants me lynched. Again, that's all. Forced analysis. Wbg chooses one point and only argues it. The point is that sandroba's logic is bad for wanting me lynched. Actually it isn't. I had never run for mayor before and I was, I guess, "trolling" (in a different sense of the word). Reading back, I did seem like a pretty good lynch (for Day 1) back then. Wbg just wanted sandroba dead and he couldn't find anything to say, so he just posted this shitty little argument to call sandroba scum.

So then a bunch of shit happened, involving me claiming vet and a whole host of other stuff.

But here we go back to the subject of sandroba and his choice of me to lynch:

On November 26 2011 19:17 wherebugsgo wrote:

Show nested quote +

No, I am arguing that sinani will nearly always be an easy lynch. There's a significant difference.

Our job as townies is to lynch scum, sinani will never be the optimal choice for lynch day 1 unless you have some way of divining his alignment or you are left in a situation in which no one else makes sense.

On Day 1, it's impossible to have a confirmed scum, so someone like me is a good lynch.

Since the first is impossible and the second is ludicrous by the sheer number of players we have, we should not even be discussing a day 1 lynch of players like sinani.

Yes, because I tried to run for mayor

I think lynching the person who is most actively pushing scum agenda on day 1 is optimal play. It's bound to be a vet, since I really doubt a new player is going to jump in and be so incredibly pro-scum that we have no choice but to lynch him.

Lastly, about YM:

If YM has a history of being useless as town, if people very easily agree to lynching YM (and have done so in the past) with very minimal reasoning, and if YM becomes completely inactive with no clear behavioral indications of either alignment, then yeah, he probably is an easy lynch too.

However, since none of those things are true, why are you trying to say YM is an easy lynch like sinani is?

You're not even arguing that sinani isn't an easy lynch at this point. It's almost as if you've agreed with me.

This is tunneling with the same reasoning as his analysis. This post is basically useless.

+ Show Spoiler [Big Mother Fucking Plan Post] +

On November 27 2011 11:05 wherebugsgo wrote:

TL;DR:

This is the order of players I want for the scummy/lurker DT/vig list. Note that the first player is a scummy active and every other player will be a lurker. In other words, all the even numbers are lurkers and the odd ones are scummy active players.

deconduo

tube

Hier

Blind-Rawr

annul

Coagulation

syllogism

Soap

TBA (not determined yet)

Lemonwalrus

Okay. I am omitting YM from this list because I assume Palmar will lynch him. By the time I finish typing this there will most likely be less than 2 hours left in the day. All names will link to the filters for tl;dr and convenience.

all filters found here, courtesy of Palmar:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Aolx7msuf_IvdDNsN1dIbnNWcXJVaEFzU1AwN05sdUE&output=html

I am also omitting prplhz because when I went back and read his filter I realized that many of the things he was saying were true. His campaign was really bad but other than that he's been calling things out with good logic. His attack on vaderseven, for example, was very town-like to me. I am removing Erandorr for similar reasons; his attack on decon made him look more town-like to me.

Players I'd like dead by day 3; AKA, who should be part of my plan

I'll start with the lurkers, those players who have done next to nothing. These players, I anticipate, will make good lurker-bane shots by n2.

1. tube

This is relatively self-explanatory. This guy has done nothing. Nothing at all. His vote reason for sandro is terrible, and he has contributed nothing.
Lurker banes need to shoot people, this one would make a good shot.

2. Coagulation

A vet, who is apparently good, lurking so hardcore I didn't even know he was playing until I skimmed over the playerlist again.

Another good, obvious lurker bane shot. (he tends to do this as scum, from what I understand)

3. Soap

One game-relevant post. Two posts about timestamps. Useless.

Again, an excellent lurker-bane shot.

4. BLinD-RawR

I'm actually unsure whether a lurker bane can shoot this guy or not, since he almost has a full page of posts, but he has done nothing as well. Over half his posts are completely irrelevant to the game. He mentions things like the current BW game, makes excuses for his inactivity, and comments repeatedly about the length of day 1.

You lurker banes know better than I do how you function, but he's a good shot too. Also BLinD-RawR is rather scummy because he seemed very enthusiastic about starting this game and now has literally done nothing.

5. LemonWalrus

Once again it's unclear to me whether a lurker bane can actually shoot this guy, but he's done nothing much of note either.

Okay, that's all for the lurkers (for now) and obviously there isn't much to comment on them. The remaining 5 are going to be my nonlurker scumreads.

6. deconduo

Alright, let's look at decon's campaign for mayor, since it is probably the most scummy thing this thread has seen outside of youngminii.

Show nested quote +

Note how bad his campaign actually is. There is so little effort here that one would wonder how someone who does this could actually win.

Clearly, decon's intention was never to win the election, nor help town in attaining a good mayor. He's just seeding chaos and distracting the thread with an unnecessary campaign.

Now, the most interesting thing that decon has done is this:

Show nested quote +

He votes annul based on annul being better than everyone else, despite annul having done absolutely nothing this game to prove that he is town.

In fact, annul is far more likely to be scum than town right now.

Last thing of note about decon is this:

Show nested quote +

This is a truly moronic and unbased assumption. I really have no nicer way of putting that.

I am apparently scum bussing sandro. No reason why. Just a statement of fact. No analysis. Just a statement.

Decon has not given reasons for ANY of his reads all game; this was one of his last posts. Not his town reads, not his scum reads. How is this beneficial to townies?

I will conclude about decon with a reiteration of his own quote:

Show nested quote +

By his own standards, since decon is posting one liners that accuse people of being scum or assert that people are town without reasoning, he is making posts that look like he's contributing but in reality he isn't contributing anything at all.

7. Hier

I just had a small little exchange with this guy, I'll just reiterate myself:

Show nested quote +

On November 27 2011 09:56 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 27 2011 09:49 Hier wrote:

On November 27 2011 09:23 wherebugsgo wrote:
also you are a hypocrite, and have contradicted yourself, since you incorrectly say that I call sandro scum only because he called for the lynch of sinani (this is not true) but you call BC scum for this reason:

On November 27 2011 08:20 Hier wrote:
BC
-The original creator of the DT plan. It is likely WBG modified it, as opposed to advising BC behind the curtains to fix it, because they wanted to create an extra face to compete in the elections, diluting the suspicions.
.

Entirely because he created the DT plan and you think it's bad.

So, you accuse me of being scum because I apparently only had one reason for attacking sandro, but then you attack BC for only one reason.

Nice logical contradiction.

Do you actually know the meaning of the word "hypocrite"? My main point... the one that's several lines long, had to do with your campaign. After that I accused your reason (only reason) for calling Sandro scum of being shallow.

I am not the first person to call BC's DT plan prone to manipulation b the mafia. Specifically BC's, not yours.

yes, I do, that's why I'm calling you one.

You list me as mafia and use my attack on sandro for him wanting to lynch sinani as suspicious, yet you do the exact same thing by attacking BC solely for not liking his plan. That's hypocritical! Not being the first to call BC's plan bad does not change anything about whether or not you did something logically contradictory. No one cares if you were the first nor last to call BC's plan bad, you're a hypocrite because you said I'm scummy because my suspicion of sandro (apparently) rests entirely on him wanting to kill sinani. Your suspicion of BC rests entirely on his plan, which, by your logic, makes YOU scummy.

In fact, even your attack on me is pretty much that you don't like the plan. Only your suspicion of Palmar is supported by multiple points (which, by the way, are not very well reasoned)

Anyway, I'm writing up a bigger post right now so I'm probably not going to reply to you for a bit.

Show nested quote +

On November 27 2011 08:35 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 27 2011 08:20 Hier wrote:
Here are some of my thoughts so far.

Mafia
Palmar
-Way too many people announcing their vote for him, with the official vote tag and everything. Claiming they love his plan, even though there REALLY wasn't any plan Palmar offered to begin with. Typical propaganda by the mafia.
-Most of his campaign relies on him proclaiming he is good as town, and bad as mafia.
-Already started working on his "people with ability to veto" list to veto people ending up on the suspect list. That includes himself. lol wut? Note that he wants 3 veto votes to prevent a person to be on the suspect list for DTs. That means there are at least 3 mafia members on that list Palmar proposed.
-Slightly suspicious about his adamant urge to kill YM. YM merely

WBG
-I'm not a fan of his DT plan. Unless prevented by an ability, mafia will get a kill every night. Meanwhile, the town's lynches are semi-blind and can be manipulated by the mafia. We are meant to follow a list, which itself can be manipulated through propaganda, waste our player resources (forced kills), and waste our vigilante shots all to slightly help out our detective(s) to figure out their sanity, the attempts of which can be all for naught by GF, Millers, and framers. If mafia gets a slightly favorable population ratio within the first few days, the game is over. No thanks. I'd rather have our DTs work independently, even if it is a gamble on them being competent.
-His claim that sandroba is mafia hangs entirely on his first lynch target, sinani206. Though I admit questionable, he puts way too much weight on that point alone.

BC
-The original creator of the DT plan. It is likely WBG modified it, as opposed to advising BC behind the curtains to fix it, because they wanted to create an extra face to compete in the elections, diluting the suspicions.

Town
sandroba
-Is against WBG's plan, with which I agree with; it is far too prone to manipulation and errors by DTs.

Can't Quite Tell
syllogism

GreYMisT

prplhz

I think this guy is a good bet to be scum.

Look at how detailed his cases are on the players he thinks are scum, and then look at his case for sandro being town.

There's a huge sense of disconnect here between the amount of effort he put in to calling myself, Palmar, and BC scum and the amount of effort he put into calling sandro town.

He also lists 3 null reads at the end for no particular reason. Why those 3, in particular?

prpl I thought was scum, syllo I think is also likely to be scum. GreYMisT could be anything at this point. It's perhaps not so strange he picked syllo, since he focused on syllo+sandro and me+Palmar+BC, but it is indeed strange he chose to comment on GreYMisT and prpl.

Show nested quote +

On November 27 2011 09:19 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 27 2011 09:12 Hier wrote:

On November 27 2011 09:09 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 27 2011 09:06 Hier wrote:

On November 27 2011 08:54 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 27 2011 08:44 Hier wrote:

On November 27 2011 08:35 wherebugsgo wrote:

Well GreYMisT and prplz are/were in the election campaign. Duh......
Syllo I found often to be there with Sandro, but did not quite have enough to say at the time. I was busy in the last 24 hours; just finished reading like 35 pages, I'll dump more posts as time moves.

Sandro: I happened to agree with his criticisms of your strategy. Not much to say.

Would you call me scum right off the bat if I did the opposite; if I had one liners about you and Palmar and an essay about Sandro? This is a legitimate question, answer it.

Yes, actually.

I generally am critical of players who make contradictions in their play. If a player is hypocritical or makes logical contradictions, then I generally hone in on them and tunnel and pressure them repeatedly.

If someone says things that show discrepancies or inordinate bias toward one side of an issue they are not involved in, then I also am suspicious, because I then wonder if they have a non-town agenda.

If a player is not directly involved in an issue (such as this DT palmar/BC/me and syllo/sandro business) then I expect the amount of effort put into analyzing both sides to be roughly equal. If it isn't, then there is likely to be something hidden going on.

It is advantageous for town to identify mafia as soon as possible and to provide large amounts of argument to accuse a player of being scum.

It is advantageous for mafia to falsely accuse a townie of being mafia and to provide large amounts of argument for it to alleviate suspicion off of actual mafia members and to waste lynches.

Sandro isn't being lynched after breakfast; I'm not in a particular rush to convince everyone he isn't scum. However, I do not believe he is mafia based on his argument against your DT policy. So it actually turns out that the paragraph under your name has relation to Sandro's case.

So you just admitted that what you posted about scum could be taken from both alignment perspectives.

Thank you, you pretty much just proved my point for me.

What? You agreed that what I said could be interpreted as mafia or town equally. Then you said that just proved I'm scum.
Excellent logic.
You are rather desperate to have me out of the picture, are you not? Am I a threat to your scum campaign?

Let me clarify.

My logic has to do with how scum operate. They want to be unreadable.

So, the entire focus of your post was on your scumreads, with literally no effort put in to convincing anyone that sandro is town. You also strangely included three other players, two of which you say are included because they are mayoral candidates.

Yet, you don't talk about other mayoral candidates, such as sinani, annul, Erandorr, or kitaman. You could've easily said you were null on all of these (each with a campaign about as strong as GreYMisT's or prpl's) and I probably would believe you that you were mentioning those players based on their campaigns. But, you didn't.

Now, if you look at only your scumreads, and omit the rest of your post, we see that your post can be made from either alignment. That's point number 1.

If you instead eliminate only the first half, and include the town/null, you again can probably make that post from either alignment, but it's more likely to be a scum-aligned post because of the total lack of effort. This is point #2.

Put them together, and the disconnect makes sense far more from a scum perspective than a town one. Scum are completely fine with destroying the credibility of town players. Early in the game, when there are so many of them, they are also fine in supporting certain players who are furthering their agenda; either townies they think will help them achieve their wincon, or their scumbuddies.

Main points here are that Hier (lol) has contradicted himself in trying to call BC scummy. He calls me scummy for apparently inappropriately using sandro's push of sinani. He accuses me of putting too much weight on this single thing. Then, he accuses BC of being scum almost entirely on not liking BC's plan.

This is a big behavioral contradiction and should not be let go.

8. annul

Annul has not given me a good first impression. Frankly, he looks to me like one of the dumber veteran players I've seen.

He posts things like this:

Show nested quote +

He entered the thread by calling out Palmar for "blowing up the thread" but then repeatedly posts absolutely worthless one-liners like these.

The following post is the entirety of his mayoral campaign.

Show nested quote +

This is honestly painful to read.

He then says this:

Show nested quote +

And gets absolutely wrecked by layabout in the next few posts. I didn't even have to step in and defend myself, since annul's logic was so terrible, he was caught by at least 2 or 3 other players. (I was asleep, for the record, or I would've done it myself)

Show nested quote +

For the record, it's currently 1 hour to the end of day 1 and annul actually still hasn't said why he ran for mayor, other than thinking he himself is better than all of us (although his posts have proven that he is probably worse than about 90% of us)

even his response to prpl's question about mayoral platforms is dumb:

Show nested quote +

He doesn't even know what a good platform is, but he thinks his own platform is better than the others...simply because he is on it?

Wtf?

Annul is just one massive distraction from beginning to end. He needs to die, he's an incredible distraction to town agenda and he cannot apply logic at all.

9. syllogism

The biggest tell about syllogism is his assertion that anyone who thinks he is town should vote sandro.

I used this instance of bad logic in a very similar situation that involved both sandro and syllo in a very recent game which also had mayoral elections.

Essentially, three players, all known to be very good as town, were running for mayor. Sandro and syllo were two of them, and the third was Mig.

At the time, I caught sandro on a slip he made that made him look very scummy. He basically said, "syllogism thinks Mig is town. I think syllogism is town, and therefore I trust him, so I am voting Mig for mayor." Syllogism WAS right that Mig was town, but sandro was actually scum. I knew that a town sandro would not make such a bad logical call, and I correctly pegged him as scum on day 1.

An almost eerily similar thing has happened this game. Case in point, this quote:

Show nested quote +

It isn't an explicit assertion, but essentially the way syllo is posting is hinting that if you think syllo is town, you should vote sandro because syllo's judgment as a townie can be trusted.

That's a really bad reason to vote for someone.

I don't have much else to say about syllo. I find him more likely to be scum than sandro at this point because of the way syllogism has been talking.

His reasoning has been terrible.

This, for example:

Show nested quote +

is poorly reasoned.

Syllogism asserts a dichotomy between confirming a DT's alignment and the plan's usefulness. Essentially he's saying that either the plan is helpful if it can ensure confirmation of sanity, or it's useless if it can't.

I point out how, even if the plan cannot ensure confirmation of sanity, it is still effective if it narrows down the possibilities for the detectives. He throws this idea out on other grounds later, probably because he knows I have a good point about the plan not needing to be perfect in order to be helpful.

In addition, he keeps asserting that breadcrumbs will be easy to find.

Note that I never once suggested anyone should ever be breadcrumbing anything. In fact, I strongly advised against breadcrumbing, because in my opinion in a game of this size, it is one of the dumbest things a detective can do.

This plan pretty much creates a random list of 10 people that wherebugsgo hates and wants to kill, manipulating town to his needs. The analyses here are all terrible, just read them.

Yay nighttime and double lynch discussion. So, yeah.

Then wbg continues tunneling pretty much the same people, Deconduo, Serejai, Blind-Rawr, and Hier.

sinani206

United States1959 Posts

November 29 2011 06:28 GMT

#2906

Then this:

+ Show Spoiler [Hier Analysis] +

On November 29 2011 08:09 wherebugsgo wrote:

Hier Analysis

A lot of this is going to be repetitive, but whatever.

Let's start with his post in which he calls myself, Palmar, and BC scum.

Show nested quote +

"Too many people" voting for a person day 1 makes them mafia? How many is too many?

wut?

Also, could you cite the "way too many people" claiming to love his plan? You're just saying there exist "way too many people," the "official vote tag and everything" doesn't make them scumbuddies, and "typical propaganda" is just a load of hogwash.

None of this is substantiated. It's entirely your subjective opinion, backed up by nothing.

Thus, this is not a reason to call Palmar scum. It's bad.

Show nested quote +

First part is false; most of his campaign, as far as I could tell, was not about him being better as town and bad as mafia. Second part is actually true, he IS better at town than mafia. That's actually a good reason to put him in office, it means we can quickly tell if he's scum or not.

He specifically said this:

Show nested quote +

On November 24 2011 18:23 Palmar wrote:

And this is why I should be voted for mayor.

Credentials:

More often than anyone else in this game, have I been killed night 1 as town
I have played 22 games of mafia on TL prior to this one
I had to learn the game the hard way, I fucked up massively in my newbie games
In the last 7 games I have played as town, I have successfully pushed for mafia lynch on day 1
I am one of the most transparent player in this game, my town play is top notch, my scum play is pretty bad
Unlike some other candidates, you can actually call me out for being wrong, because I'm not bad
If for some reason I don't hit mayor, I'm one of the few people in this game that has the guts and reads to successfully play as the sheriff.

This is how I intend to run town:

I will be running a strict Lynch-All-Liars policy (LAL) and will push hard to enforce it. With a game this big we cannot afford townies running amok with some ridiculous plans of how lying will somehow benefit town. Do not lie, you will be held accountable.
I will encourage scumhunting. I will personally be very active and willing to answer questions. I will help our newer players recognizing scumtells. But more importantly, I have the confidence and the guts to call people out on bullshit. I will let you know if what you're doing is bad, or wrong.
I will discourage lurking. I will in public sight help lurker-banes find suitable targets and offer assistance without revealing them by publicly posting reasons people are lurking.
I will be aggressive and fair. I will be active and logical. If at any point of the game my logic doesn't hold up you should lynch me. But it won't come to that.

In conclusion

You have the opportunity to vote one of the more experienced player and one of the more successful players into office. In addition, more than almost any other veteran in this game, I have a history of being very, very active and open. None of the other true veterans in this game (veteran meaning both experienced and good), play the game with as much passion as I do.

I hope you all make the right choice.

His credentials are half of his campaign, his intentions of running town are the other half.

Saying that most of his campaign was based on his assertion that he is better at town than scum is wrong.

Show nested quote +

Unnecessary assumption.

This assumption relies on Palmar being scum first, and you NEVER connect people until one person flips. Palmar has not flipped yet, so Hier making this unqualified assumption as if it is the truth is incredibly scummy.

The only players who talk as if they know for sure what is going on are scum. They sometimes slip in their wording of things, and this is one such example of Hier doing it.

Show nested quote +

Probably the only valid reason for believing Palmar to be scum, and note that Hier is only "slightly suspicious" because of this. even saying that it's not a sure reason to call him scum

Then, why the hell is he agreeing so adamantly with Ace, since Ace's argument practically revolves around this?

Show nested quote +

You're not a fan of my plan. Okay, fine. That doesn't make me scum!

A list of 10 players is incredibly hard to manipulate, especially as all of them, if the plan were to be followed through with, will die. The way I drafted the plan was specifically intended to counter all forms of manipulation. There are elements of chance in there, dispersion, and uncertainty that all create dilemmas for scum.

Indeed, we would not be wasting our vig shots, if people had actually stepped forth and added players to the plan. I was the only person who actively contributed to it, despite other people agreeing with it. I had at least one wrong read (on syllo) but otherwise I don't think I was.

The last part about mafia getting a favorable population ratio is blatant fear mongering. This is essentially saying, if we mislynch day 1 and day 2, mafia win. This is not true in any game and it is not true here either. The fact that you include this is simply more telling of the fact that you are the one spreading propaganda, not me.

Show nested quote +

Lol. As I have pointed out before, there were other reasons to believe sandro was scum day 1. His logic wasn't very good. Toward the end of day 1 I saw his play improve and as of now I don't believe he is scum.

However, the fact that you say this is quite compelling evidence against you, as can be seen in the following part of the quote:

Show nested quote +

Hier's sole reason for believing BC is scum is because he is the original creator of the DT plan and he assumes that I am scum with BC. He attacked me for (wrongly) believing that my sole reason for calling sandro scum was based on the sinani lynch target. Yet, he uses only one reason for attacking BC. Hier has some really shitty double standards.

Show nested quote +

No effort. None at all.

Compare that to the marginal amount of effort he put into calling myself, Palmar, and BC scum.

Show nested quote +

On November 27 2011 08:44 Hier wrote:

On November 27 2011 08:35 wherebugsgo wrote:

Well GreYMisT and prplz are/were in the election campaign. Duh......
Syllo I found often to be there with Sandro, but did not quite have enough to say at the time. I was busy in the last 24 hours; just finished reading like 35 pages, I'll dump more posts as time moves.

Sandro: I happened to agree with his criticisms of your strategy. Not much to say.

Would you call me scum right off the bat if I did the opposite; if I had one liners about you and Palmar and an essay about Sandro? This is a legitimate question, answer it.

If GreYMisT and prpl were included because they were candidates, why weren't decon, annul, sinani, Erandorr, and kitaman included?

All of those players made campaigns about as strong as prpl and GreYMisT. In fact, prpl had more or less withdrawn by the time Hier posted this, whereas annul was still running, and kita (IIRC) was still running. Kita had 5 votes at the time Hier voted sandro for mayor.

I find this to simply be an excuse to choose certain players to list rather than list all of them.

Show nested quote +

On November 27 2011 09:45 Hier wrote:

On November 27 2011 09:19 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 27 2011 09:12 Hier wrote:

On November 27 2011 09:09 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 27 2011 09:06 Hier wrote:

On November 27 2011 08:54 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 27 2011 08:44 Hier wrote:

On November 27 2011 08:35 wherebugsgo wrote:

So you just admitted that what you posted about scum could be taken from both alignment perspectives.

Thank you, you pretty much just proved my point for me.

Prplhz, I think, was the first campaign to get started, with a picture of a planet, or something. It stuck in memory because it was a post typed out before he received his role, hence very neutral. Greymist's campaign, I think, was the most recent to be talked about, hence why it also got stuck in memory. As I said, I had to go through something like 35 pages in one go. I couldn't bring myself to go digging through that again to find quotes and whatnot. I did not deliberately forget to mention some candidates because a lot of people announced they would run much later in the thread, and their candidacies weren't the center of attention... like some other campaigns.

My Sandro's case did not need a lot of text. It was an opposition to your campaign, which I supported. Did you want me to cut and paste the explanation of why I thought your plan was scummy into Sandro's section? In that case would you not have answered me because then the text sizes would look similar?

Could you please safely direct me to a post in this thread vigorously defending someone's town alignment, as opposed to accusing someone of being scum? Is everybody in this thread scum? Oh, and speaking of scum...

Do I have the potential of ruining your mafia plans in the future? No, really, I want you to answer this. Do I?

His excuse was that the players I mentioned weren't the "center of attention" unlike other campaigns.

What? How can you possibly say that prpl and GreYMisT had stronger campaigns than the players I listed? They ALL had relatively weak campaigns, and kita actually had 5 votes at the time Hier chose to vote for sandro.

It's indeed strange that Hier chose to omit these players in his list of reads, since if he truly wanted to list mayoral candidates there then he would've, at the very least, listed kita and annul, who had more serious campaigns than prpl at that point in the game.

Show nested quote +

Players are of course going to clamor about misinterpretations, because misinterpretations are what scum do.

Townies will accept that they have made a mistake and move on or change their angle. Scum don't, they will try to twist anything and everything to fit their agenda.

Hier can't refute the points I have made logically, so he turns to attacking me by saying I am screaming louder than he is in order to gain an advantage.

Show nested quote +

On November 27 2011 11:04 Hier wrote:

On November 27 2011 10:51 Palmar wrote:

On November 27 2011 10:43 Hier wrote:
Even a townie can seem scummy at times. Instead of admitting that some of my points are worth considering, while insisting on retaining you town alignment, you simply call them terrible without any explanation.

On November 27 2011 10:34 Palmar wrote:
Again, what I say has nothing to do with the people I talk about and their alignment.

So you say, mafia can surely mention other mafia brethren in their discussion. It alleviates suspicion, even if slightly.

On November 27 2011 10:34 Palmar wrote:
Nothing I say can make anyone else scum, it's their own words you have to look for.

No, of course not. But the player that screams his/her intentional misinterpretation of other players' posts the loudest has a great advantage. That's how the game is played, and you and WBG are playing it correctly, because it seems the people are already starting to rally against me. It seems to be working. Good job.

You're ignoring the possibility of people voting for me because they think I make sense, and me being mad at you for using bad logic.

Your point about my campaign resting on me being good previously in mafia is okay. Until you know my alignment, you cannot deduce anything about me based on how other people respond to me. If people allowed those kind of reads, then mafia would just buddy up with town all the time to get them hanged. It's stupid.

If someone votes me with sketchy reasoning, you should go for HIM, not me.

If you're not scum, you have two options. Believe me now when I say you're using incorrect methods to scumhunt, and they will not work. Or you can make a fool of yourself this game, and then learn.

Irrelevant of my alignment, your methods suck at the moment. Try a new approach.

You are right, people may be voting for you because you make sense, not because of you campaign, or lack of. However, a player of any alignment can "make sense", it simply depends on what you are making that sense. Early game, especially of this magnitude is about appealing to the mass of people, the majority of which are town aligned. Late game, though I have not seen it yet, I think will be very different.

It is interesting how my original post was merely an expression of opinion, not a scumhunt, I thought it would go largely ignored. But it would appear that the mafia have taken note of my post, to my dismay. WBG ignored my question, but tell me, am I dangerous to you, mafia?

You are also ultimately right about varying methods to playing the game. In the early stages key words, such as 'hypocrite', and intentionally diverging the attention of people off of main points of the discussion, where such a discussion can be detrimental to the mafia, are all excellent tools. As I already said, I will attempt to use them.

Hier openly admits to not scumhunting here.

If you're not scumhunting, then posting opinions is pointless. It only serves to muddy up the thread, since unsubstantiated opinions are merely food for mafia, and generally can never be backed with anything solid.

If you're admitting that your opinions aren't backed with anything, then you are admitting that you are not fulfilling town agenda.

If you want people to ignore you, then you are even scummier. No town player in his right mind wants his posts to be ignored. Only scum want their posts to be ignored because they hate the attention it brings to them.

Show nested quote +

On November 27 2011 11:15 Hier wrote:

On November 27 2011 11:08 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 27 2011 11:04 Hier wrote:

On November 27 2011 10:51 Palmar wrote:

On November 27 2011 10:34 Palmar wrote:
Again, what I say has nothing to do with the people I talk about and their alignment.

So you say, mafia can surely mention other mafia brethren in their discussion. It alleviates suspicion, even if slightly.

On November 27 2011 10:34 Palmar wrote:
Nothing I say can make anyone else scum, it's their own words you have to look for.

You are right, people may be voting for you because you make sense, not because of you campaign, or lack of. However, a player of any alignment can "make sense", it simply depends on what you are making that sense. Early game, especially of this magnitude is about appealing to the mass of people, the majority of which are town aligned. Late game, though I have not seen it yet, I think will be very different.

It is interesting how my original post was merely an expression of opinion, not a scumhunt, I thought it would go largely ignored. But it would appear that the mafia have taken note of my post, to my dismay. WBG ignored my question, but tell me, am I dangerous to you, mafia?

You are also ultimately right about varying methods to playing the game. In the early stages key words, such as 'hypocrite', and intentionally diverging the attention of people off of main points of the discussion, where such a discussion can be detrimental to the mafia, are all excellent tools. As I already said, I will attempt to use them.

you would not be dangerous to me if I were mafia because you are not making any sense.

Any good scum player will agree that only townies who make sense are a threat to them. As scum, I'm not threatened by people who use bad logic.

Hmm... you keep ignoring the fact that the basis of me thinking you are scum is not the ordeal with sinani. This is becoming rather stale, for an attempt at getting the town to lynch me. It may eventually work, because people search for keywords, not reading the entire posts. But... such poor moves are so tasteless and boring. No style at all.

Okay, so here we come across a contradiction.

There are two ways to solve this, both of which lead to us concluding Hier is more likely to be scum than town. Ready?

#1. Hier posted two reasons for me being scum. First was that I had a bad plan, and second was that I attacked sandro for his push of sinani on day 1. Case 1 is that Hier is telling the truth that the ordeal with sinani is a minor issue and wasn't a huge indicator of me being scum. In that case, Hier is putting disproportionate weight on one reason for me to be scum; that I had a bad plan. Thus, Hier has contradicted himself and is scum.

#2. Hier posted two reasons for me being scum, and he actually does find me pushing sandro day 1 for his sinani lynch target as very scummy. In this case, he is a liar and he is putting disproportionate weight on a single reason in order to call me scum, contradicting himself anyway.

Show nested quote +

On November 27 2011 11:31 Hier wrote:

On November 27 2011 11:22 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 27 2011 11:15 Hier wrote:

On November 27 2011 11:08 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 27 2011 11:04 Hier wrote:

On November 27 2011 10:51 Palmar wrote:

On November 27 2011 10:34 Palmar wrote:
Again, what I say has nothing to do with the people I talk about and their alignment.

So you say, mafia can surely mention other mafia brethren in their discussion. It alleviates suspicion, even if slightly.

On November 27 2011 10:34 Palmar wrote:
Nothing I say can make anyone else scum, it's their own words you have to look for.

You are right, people may be voting for you because you make sense, not because of you campaign, or lack of. However, a player of any alignment can "make sense", it simply depends on what you are making that sense. Early game, especially of this magnitude is about appealing to the mass of people, the majority of which are town aligned. Late game, though I have not seen it yet, I think will be very different.

It is interesting how my original post was merely an expression of opinion, not a scumhunt, I thought it would go largely ignored. But it would appear that the mafia have taken note of my post, to my dismay. WBG ignored my question, but tell me, am I dangerous to you, mafia?

You are also ultimately right about varying methods to playing the game. In the early stages key words, such as 'hypocrite', and intentionally diverging the attention of people off of main points of the discussion, where such a discussion can be detrimental to the mafia, are all excellent tools. As I already said, I will attempt to use them.

Sorry, you just keep getting worse, don't you?

lolol.

This is the last time I'll spell it out.

You call BC scum because his plan was bad.

You say that me calling sandro scum because I put disproportionate weight on him pushing sinani is a scummy thing of me to do.

I tell you that you just contradicted yourself because you are, by definition, putting disproportionate weight on one thing that BC did in order to call him scum.

You are failing to see how your own logic can be turned against you. This is why you are a hypocrite, this is why you are using bad logic, and this is (partly) why you are scum.

I called BC scum not because his plan was bad, but because it had the potential to be utilized in favor of mafia. In turn, have YOU read any of MY posts? I have rather explicitly stated so.

My secondary point about you was the fact that your only argument against Sandro was something that had no relation to mafia whatsoever.

I have never contradicted myself. If anybody has doubts, please filter me and read some of my posts.

It seems I was wrong about the game. It is not a game of logic, but rather of emotions. I'm afraid I will get lynched quickly because I am not good about controlling someone else's emotions.

This post is like a politician talking.

"I didn't call BC scum because his plan was bad, but because it had the potential to be utilized in favor of mafia."

Isn't that the definition of a bad plan? If a plan is manipulable by scum, is it not a bad plan? Hier is arguing on the basis of semantics because he doesn't actually have a working argument.

His secondary point for me being scum is being used against him and he can't do anything about it because he knows he was wrong.

Lastly, he again throws in some unsubstantiated bull about mafia not being about a game of logic. If anyone is playing the game of emotions, it's Hier playing the "I'm new to mafia and this game isn't what I thought it'd be cry cry cry" game.

Show nested quote +

You didn't point out anything.

You didn't even know what my case on sandro was yesterday but you accuse me of heavily weighting a singular point on sandro being scum but can't see yourself that you are heavily weighting a single point to call BC scum.

You're being purposely selective and you can't even argue against it other than repeatedly asserting that you're right and I'm not.

Show nested quote +

lol

Show nested quote +

And now we see Hier resorting to the same types of play he is accusing me of using.

How does calling my scum play bad further Hier's argument? + Show Spoiler +

answer: it doesn't

How does saying that I am trying to protect myself further Hier's argument that I am scum? + Show Spoiler +

answer: it doesn't

How does calling my contributions useless without actually showing how they are useless further Hier's argument that I am scum? + Show Spoiler +

answer: it doesn't

How does calling me obvious scum further Hier's argument that I am scum? + Show Spoiler +

answer: it doesn't.

For someone who is so adamant about making this a game of logic and not emotions, Hier is subjecting himself to a lowly ad hominem by saying my scum play is so obvious that he hopes I improve so that I am no longer a challenge.

Show nested quote +

Fear mongering.

Pure fear mongering.

Mafia always begin gaining population ratio unless the town strings together a series of scum lynches. All of this is based on a single town player getting lynched day 1, which happens in the vast majority of mafia games.

Hier repeatedly says things that allude to town not being in a comfortable position and that we cannot afford to do certain things. He asserts that town is divided and "mafia cannot get an early population ratio lead and get away with it" and he asserts "DL is a risk we have to take" without actually providing reasonable evidence that the double lynch will actually help us hit 2 scum.

A double lynch really is only useful day 2 if we can guarantee two scum are hit with it. Otherwise, it's a waste of a double lynch that could be used on days 3 and later, when we are just statistically alone more likely to hit scum.

Fear mongering is a play on emotions, and Hier is guilty of it, which is certainly odd, seeing as he was decrying earlier that he thought mafia should be a game based on logic and not emotions.

Show nested quote +

On November 28 2011 06:32 Hier wrote:

On November 28 2011 06:27 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 28 2011 06:25 Hier wrote:

On November 28 2011 06:17 Steveling wrote:

On November 28 2011 06:10 BloodyC0bbler wrote:

As for the whole bit about double lynching at this moment in time. Why the fuck are we doing it? We have at the moment 9 modkills as we only know Ace is going to sub in. Chances are most of these are going to be townies and townies tend to be the bulk of modkills in games. So of 9 people we might get 1 or 2 reds IF we are lucky. More than likely we will have 9 townies. Why would you then want to double lynch? We would be down YM lynch, all of tonights shots, + all the modkills. If we don't have insanely good reads at this moment in time and miss lynch we lose another day towards lylo. My issue with this is the same people who are against vigi's shooting early and clearing out suspects are the ones pushing double lynch without 100% info. We have no idea if the mafia has their own vigis or lurker banes which could add even more KP ontop of their base 8. Wasting town KP, especially KP that the mafia can manipulate early on into the game baffles me beyond belief. The same people who opposed clearing out suspects with vigi's and dts confirming sanity are the same people pushing for the waste of double lynches.

A new take on the DL issue. Any comments on that?

Delaying DLs is a stalling tactic used primarily when the town is in a very comfortable position and can afford to spend some time further analyzing potential mafia players. Our town is not in such a position. We will have townies getting modkilled soon, and a lot of people mistrust the players in the office; our town is divided. Mafia cannot get an early population ratio lead and get away with it, because that is a sure way to lose. DL is a risk we have to take, otherwise we will just slowly die off while bickering about who we consider scum.

I can't believe people actually think this constitutes logic.

This fear mongering is working, good job whoever started it (annul or syllo, one of you...)

It's as if you were just waiting for me to post something...

If we wait until the population begins to approach 50% mafia/town, DLs will not be enough to catch up with the mafia. They will just exterminate us much quicker than we can lynch them off. In this position specifically; if we weren't going to rapidly lose some townies to modkills (which, I admit, is yet to be seen how many of them are actually mafia, if any), then holding off on DLs would be good.

Again, unsubstantiated.

I already showed how we can use DLs starting on day 3 and still use all of them before we lose.

There are only 4 double lynches. Wasting one on day 2, as we are probably going to do, is not very productive, since that only leaves 3 left to use. If we last till day 6, and we've used double lynches this entire time, that means we will have lost the ability to lynch two scum at once. If we last till day 7 it's even worse.

Once again, fear mongering by repeatedly asserting that "we will not be able to last that long without DL!"

Hier makes the illogical assumption that early double lynches are the only thing stopping us from dying to mafia, when there are many other tools at our disposal other than a day 2 double lynch.

Hier, I'm waiting on that case that I'm scum.

If you think it's repetitive, why post it? That just derails discussion.
Also, why is there such a long analysis on such a "useless" player?
Hier is one of those players that makes no sense at all, you don't need to waste town's time posting about him.

On November 29 2011 14:18 wherebugsgo wrote:
This ace modkill is bs because now it means I'll get lynched.

rofl ace you moron

Good.

God bless America.
Good night.

+ Show Spoiler +

Took 1:10 to write. I should probably do some homework

sinani206

United States1959 Posts

November 29 2011 06:28 GMT

#2907

Hooray for posts over 100000 characters!

sinani206

United States1959 Posts

November 29 2011 06:29 GMT

#2908

going to do hw and go to sleep now btw

Hier

2391 Posts

November 29 2011 06:42 GMT

#2909

Why do people keep saying I make no sense? I clearly do. You may not agree with my arguments, or you may think my points are a bit of a stretch to be of serious consideration, but not making sense? Them not making sense doesn't make sense.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 29 2011 06:54 GMT

#2910

Sinani did you really just call me scum because I didn't support lynching you day 1?

Holy shit, your play just reached a new low.

bumatlarge

United States4567 Posts

November 29 2011 07:15 GMT

#2911

Supersoftserve Cotton Candy:
and it tastes like scum

On November 24 2011 19:17 supersoft wrote:

A little contribution

The blue color has nothing to do with my role. It just looks nice.
okay while showering I made a plan how I want to play this game out. I want to win this game and I play very systematically to win it. I don't want to hurt feelings, but I may have to if it's necessary to win. I went through the playerlist and I filtered out the players I remember from former games. Only few are capable to play as mayor:

kitaman27 I think he's a reasonable player and therefor a reasonable choice.
sandroba I can agree on what he said about himself so far
Palmar I can also agree on what he said about himself. He really is one of the best players here. If he behaves properly I am going to vote him
wherebugsgo (doesn't get bold because he didn't post yet despite the fact he was online)
syllogism (and he doesn't want to)
maybe Greymist/Erandorr/BC (I didn't play with him yet)/decon

In my first post, I said I'll do the mayorjob. I want to retract that. I don't want to cause even more chaos. My goal for the first day will be to get one of these players - if he behaves like I expect him to behave - into the mayorposition.

sinani206 and prplhz are nice people. But they are definetely not capable to play as mayor.
They play completely random both as town and as scum. Maybe they change their play this game. But I don't want to bet the outcome of this game on that.
I can't support redFF either. couple therapiemafia etc. You dont understand my plan until now.

long story short:
I want to make sure we elect no randommayor or scummayor instead I want us to elect a skilled townmayor.

There is a little thing called fluff that people believe their posts need to be filled with in order to be townie. Fluff is anything that has no motive behind it other to appear to be active and pro-town. Posting an analysis for the sake of posting an analysis is scummy. Scum who post analyses do so with the intent that they can make themselves look good regardless of who else they talk about.

One thing I learned from kurumi is that if english is not Your second language, You keep Your sentences direct so that you convey exactly what you want to say. Supersoft has supplied us with this whopper of a post I like to call Cotton Candy. Cotton candy is about the size of your head, yet provides very little substance to it besides sugar and fluff. ALL OF SUPERSOFT'S POST HERE IS DELICIOUS COTTON CANDY. From the little dude in the shower all the way down to the TLDR, he morphs three lines into fluff. This isn't hard to see, since all he does is say who should be mayor and who shouldn't be. Sinani, prplhz and redff or too erratic and random, they shouldn't be mayor. Kitaman, sandoba and palmar, and the other hand, are not. They would make good mayors if they are town.

Let's go cotton candy picking.

On November 24 2011 20:31 supersoft wrote:

Show nested quote +

I knew it. Prplhz has one MAGIC sentence for the newbs in his text:

"If you are afraid that you might make a silly mistake because this is your first game, and scum will jump on you for it and try to get you lynched, you need to vote me for mayor."

Let me explain why I strongly disagree with that sentence in so many ways:

This sentence appeals to your emotions: This sentence scares you. Noone wants to get lynched for one little mistake.
Town tries to be objective. We want to see the facts. The truth! We don't go the emotional way:
What prplhz hasn't done is to proove what he says: Did he link any games where he defended an innocent townie who was being lynched? I can think of a game where Palmar and I defended innocent townies two days in a row. But I don't have prplhz in mind when it comes down to defend someone who's innocent.

The assumption that scum jumps on you for little mistakes is wrong! In fact, everyone jumps on you for little mistakes! And that is good! We have to start somewhere. And therefor we need a healthy portion of aggression.
If people jump on you, don't be afraid. Explain yourself. Defend yourself. It's part of this game. It's the only way to get informations.

And last but not least, prplhz as mayor won't be able to save you! We have to lynch and he knows that as good as we all know it. One of our main goal of this game will be to separate the bad townies from scum. If we all get it wrong and we try to lynch you and you're innocent, prplhz is not the allmighty who is smarter than we all. His allegation that he is the one who's able to seperate between them is unproven so far.

Besides building up the mayor role to something that is supposed to win for town and lead them to victory, he spends an asinine amount of post space with references to emotions and how townies should play and what it means to be a human and holy shit it makes my eyes bleed. I even agree that prphlz is an asinine player, but that's all you need to say.

You don't need to try to act town, you just hunt scum.

On November 26 2011 20:37 supersoft wrote:

Show nested quote +

"we" are the more experienced players. taking care is something like this:

Show nested quote +

Bullshit. You can ask for opinions, but assigning little missions for some people on people you think are scum rather then pointing outright what makes errandor scummy? You have to attempt to lead lynches as town to get things done or you just get babysat by better players, or strolled over by scum. You do not have a town mindset, and your attempts to cover it up like this are admirable, but ultimately bad.

On November 26 2011 23:01 supersoft wrote:
easy lynches ≠ good lynches

easy lynches are overly scummy and useless. They're good targets for our vigilantes.
Thats the reason why sinanis veteranclaim is even more antitown than his scummy/useless/spammy behaviour.
If we shoot him now and he's vet, our vig has to claim the shot to confirm him as vet; consequence is that shooting him means risking a valuable shot. I know it's a little bit "wifom", but his claim does only make sense if he's scum.
He's not worth a lynch and not worth risking a shot.

I don't agree with decons theory (i don't remember exactly if it really was decon) that he's a frustrated townie.
He's one of the worst players in the TLmafia-forum because as town and as scum he barely plays the game. Instead he's trolling or being afk all the time. If he really wanted to change his play this game, he has no reason to be pissed if we don't believe him until he prove us wrong.
Sinani confirms once again my prejudices towards him; and this time he's not only useless like always, no. This time he's even more antitown than usually.

As I pointed out, his claim is extremely selfish and makes perfect sense if he's scum.

WHO ARE YOU EVEN TALKING TO? It's like you have some interns behind all your posts, nodding their heads. Lynching isn't rocket science, you vote who you've determined as scum. Letting the fact that some scummy douche gets obliterated by town doesn't suddenly make it a bad lynch. In my experience as scum, if my buddy just got nailed by a vet and a few townies hop on, I go "Well he's fucked" and vote him as soon as possible.

I read this whole post, excpet for the IRC stuff, I assumed supersoft just wanted the reader to get bored and move on to the next post or something, because that's almost what I did.

On November 29 2011 01:15 supersoft wrote:

First of all, I want to clarify a something. I am not a sheep, as you can see on the picture above.

Show nested quote +

I guess you're referring to this.

+ Show Spoiler +

On November 24 2011 19:17 supersoft wrote:

And you are right. From your perspective it looks like that. I gave Palmar my vote extremely early. I think I was the first person to give him my vote. And you draw the following conclusion.

I doubt Ace ever read this. From what I can tell he was reading the immediate post of "Palmar don't panic". That, from anyone's perspective, looks like, and is a sheep.

Show nested quote +

and the conclusion is wrong. I wanted to cosy Palmar along and see what his reaction is. At this point of time, I was not convinced at all that he's a good mayor! I acted deliberately naiv to get information.

My experience is that scum easily falls for befriending attempts and this was the only purpose of my early vote.

to be honest, I didn't expect the possibility that someone would accuse me for that. And I can't blame you.
I can only show you another game where I followed a similar pattern - however that game was a PM game and I told mig right from the start that I would try to act naive hoping that scum would overextend themselves. That strategy worked with DropBear back then and he thought he could tickle the name of our vigilante out of me. It failed with Incognito. That guy was town and reacted scummy as hell. WBG remembers that game.

Insert miles of whatever SS is trying to say here

What does this have to do with anything? I can't fathom why you would attempt to make this an actual legitimate reason to what you were doing. So the whole "Palmar will be a good mayor, all you new players listen to my big posts of cotton candy" was some shot at making palmar your friend so that he would... do what? This has to be the most extraordinary reaction to a single sentence calling someone scum that I have ever seen. You can't be town.

Now back to this game, I am still not 100% sure of Palmar. He didn't react to my vote at all. However I still don't trust him and I want to express my reservations now:

First of all, I want to describe my personal impression of day1. I feel like we made it too easy to sheepvote and we're all responsible for that. It is a game with a lot of new players, but that doesn't mean we let everyone get away with a ninjavote.
Exactly that happened and we had a lot of the people voting without a credible reason.
I know I bear part of the blame with my early vote, but it's no use crying over spilled milk. We have to look at the consequences thereout.

I assume, because of the situation I described above, scum had an easy job to install one of them in the office.

"I voted someone that I didn't want to regret voting for so soon, so I'm just going to lay the blame on everyone equally." Do you read these posts after you type them up?

==== Palmar or BC are scum

It's just too hard to decide between them.
Annex:
I already went for BC and he failed yet to answer my questions. Moreover sandroba has found something very interessting:

Show nested quote +

On the other hand I read Aces allegations against Palmar and I don't think that they are too bad.
In addition to that he contradicts himself:

Show nested quote +

mhmhmhmh I don't know yet what I should think about these things...

We don't have to judge over these two players today. I think as long as they do their job well from our perspective, we shouldn't lynch them. A mislynch of one of these players would be very bad, since their abilitys are great assets for us.
But I want you to realize this composition in the office we very likely have to deal with.

Aw, with all that stress of being scum and someone taking notice, you seem to acquired PMS. My condolences. I'm very glad this post is extremely wishy-washy. It culminates this little adventure nicely. You don't have an opinion, because you don't want one. You are scum. You don't care if one, both or neither of Palmar are lynched, you are just scared of what people will conclude if you actually make a decision one way or the other.

You still didn't so now you are busy pestering no one in particular to tell you what they think.

Please help us win. Lynch him.

bumatlarge

United States4567 Posts

November 29 2011 07:16 GMT

#2912

On November 29 2011 15:16 Kenpachi wrote:
ill do it tmrw. im going to sleep

lol

Risen

United States7927 Posts

November 29 2011 07:57 GMT

#2913

I'm pretty sure they were referring to me. As in, your analysis of me is nonexistent. Get to work on that scum.

Cyber_Cheese

Australia3615 Posts

November 29 2011 08:17 GMT

#2914

On November 29 2011 15:14 Steveling wrote:
Just remember guys that we don't need to martyr Ace.
He was a towny but he might very well be off about his predictions.

This and the points in this post inspire me to
##Vote Steveling

And I don't trust officials I didn't get the chance to vote in
##Vote Palmar

Palmar

Iceland22632 Posts

November 29 2011 08:54 GMT

#2915

On November 29 2011 17:17 Cyber_Cheese wrote:

Show nested quote +

This and the points in this post inspire me to
##Vote Steveling

And I don't trust officials I didn't get the chance to vote in
##Vote Palmar

That's retarded. Steveling and I are extremely unlikely to be both scum given how hard he's pushing against me.

Btw, since I'm gonna die anyway, I'm finally gonna revert to playing how I normally play. I don't need to be political anymore, and frankly, given Ace decided to troll the game, I don't care anymore.

Palmar

Iceland22632 Posts

November 29 2011 08:57 GMT

#2916

On November 29 2011 10:37 redFF wrote:
oh come on it was clearly a fucking joke...

regardless that solidifies my read on palmar, just because ace is dead does not mean scum are going to take control of the thread. keep posting.

@mods that was dumb, i expect better of GM

Shut up.

I didn't tell the mods it, but I was going to ask to be replaced if he wasn't modkilled. Don't you fucking dare come in here and try to claim town credit post-modkill. I have no interest in playing with people who cheat, nothing to do with my alignment.

On November 29 2011 11:54 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Back from seeing the show and I will say this.

What the fuck at aces modkill? Why would you warn him, then ban him for the same post he was warned for? Insanely wtf.

Now then. ACE WAS MAKING A FUCK TON OF SENSE. His main push was palmar. The only people who would actively push his modkill if he was playing this pro town are mafia. Anyone with a brain could see his alignment. As such, make his damn death worth something and off palmar.

Same at you.

You're wrong and dumb and you know it. You're probably scum too. You'd make a nice mayor to this town. You can even bus a teammate or two at various points in the game to quell their fears.

Enjoy your free win.

Daymor

New Zealand151 Posts

November 29 2011 09:02 GMT

#2917

I believe lynching Palmar this early could potentially be mistake, as long as he continues to utilise the double lynches I think he serves his purpose in the office of Mayor, if we decide to lynch him we are giving this power to BC who I think is probably town, but could potentially be Mafia.

Obviously there is the chance that Palmar is also Mafia, as has been pointed in in previous posts he has been somewhat wishy-washy on some issues, from disagreeing with BC's DT plan then accepting WBG's modified DT plan. But as long as Palmar continues to activate that Double Lynch, I would rather him in office than risk giving that task to someone I do not have a solid read on. The minute Palmar stops activating the Double Lynch I think we lynch him.

I realise this statement could be interpreted as 'fear-mongering' as I do not provide any solid behavioural or clue-based analysis. But I really don't trust my read on either Palmar or BC. So the most important thing a Mayor can provide the town is the ability to double-lynch.

Serejai doesn't seem to be adding any value to the town discussions from my point of view, he continually provides lists of players in red (for emphasis) providing very little to no analysis in support and just in general appears to be trolling. I would assume he is over the threshold for a lurker-bane and therefore would either need to fall to a vigi or a town lynch. Since Vigi's have only one bullet for the game, i would think there are potentially more valuable targets than Serejai.

Heir doesn't seem to be making much sense to me either, I find his thought process rather difficult to follow and he jumps from point to point without any real consistency or well founded logic, which is troubling. I reviewed WBG's case against Hier and have noticed similar issues.

Hier's Profile - Quote: "TeamLiquid forums: Where punishing a blind expansion is cheese, and skipping one worker is an all-in."

BrownBear struggled between the two men who were holding him on either side. Not that it would have done much good, as his hands were trapped together at the wrists by cable ties and he wore a blindfold, but he still liked to think there was something he could do about his situation.....

I am aware that this is quite a reach (at best), which is why I think this early in the game it wouldn't be smart to lynch based solely of some ambiguous and very vague clues. I would tend to think clues are of more use as a piece of the bigger puzzle, not necessarily the whole puzzle, for this reason I would rather wait before we lynch a candidate based solely on clue analysis, there is every chance it could prove to be true. But there is also the possibility it is simply a red herring and we lose one more Towny or Blue.

For these reasons I am currently assigning my two votes to;

##Vote: Serejai
##Vote: Hier

I might re-assess my votes based on any new information that comes to light until the deadline.

Daymor

New Zealand151 Posts

November 29 2011 09:08 GMT

#2918

EBWOP - Should probably add that WBG's Hier analysis was on pg139, for the sake of convenience. Spoilering it ruins the formatting.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 29 2011 09:08 GMT

#2919

On November 29 2011 18:02 Daymor wrote:
I believe lynching Palmar this early could potentially be mistake, as long as he continues to utilise the double lynches I think he serves his purpose in the office of Mayor, if we decide to lynch him we are giving this power to BC who I think is probably town, but could potentially be Mafia.

Obviously there is the chance that Palmar is also Mafia, as has been pointed in in previous posts he has been somewhat wishy-washy on some issues, from disagreeing with BC's DT plan then accepting WBG's modified DT plan. But as long as Palmar continues to activate that Double Lynch, I would rather him in office than risk giving that task to someone I do not have a solid read on. The minute Palmar stops activating the Double Lynch I think we lynch him.

I realise this statement could be interpreted as 'fear-mongering' as I do not provide any solid behavioural or clue-based analysis. But I really don't trust my read on either Palmar or BC. So the most important thing a Mayor can provide the town is the ability to double-lynch.

Serejai doesn't seem to be adding any value to the town discussions from my point of view, he continually provides lists of players in red (for emphasis) providing very little to no analysis in support and just in general appears to be trolling. I would assume he is over the threshold for a lurker-bane and therefore would either need to fall to a vigi or a town lynch. Since Vigi's have only one bullet for the game, i would think there are potentially more valuable targets than Serejai.

Heir doesn't seem to be making much sense to me either, I find his thought process rather difficult to follow and he jumps from point to point without any real consistency or well founded logic, which is troubling. I reviewed WBG's case against Hier and have noticed similar issues.

Hier's Profile - Quote: "TeamLiquid forums: Where punishing a blind expansion is cheese, and skipping one worker is an all-in."

Show nested quote +

You are one of 3 or 4 people I can say are actually making sense this game.

This is really bad.

Yo sandro, do you have thoughts you could share? I've had a town read on you for a bit but you haven't done anything.

We are in kind of a dire situation. Half the decent town vets have been killed and the town is a mess. Are you going to sit back and let them derp it up or are you actually going to step forward and scumhunt?

BC I don't agree with your targets at all. You have barely a fourth of a case on Palmar and your case on supersoft is terrible. Surely you can see that based on who is actually agreeing with you? Why is it that you have no other scumreads?

You have talked logically so far this game but your choices for lynch are, quite frankly, fucking terrible.

Palmar

Iceland22632 Posts

November 29 2011 09:25 GMT

#2920

On November 29 2011 15:14 Steveling wrote:
Just remember guys that we don't need to martyr Ace.
He was a towny but he might very well be off about his predictions.

Why the fuck are you flopping now? I thought you wanted me dead no matter what, so why even mention the possibility he may be off? This is incorrect play.

You're obviously correct, but I have no reason to believe you have the mental capacity required for being correct without already knowing the answer.

Trying to buy townie points for when I flip? What's your deal?

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