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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On October 13 2011 01:27 JimboSilvers wrote:
Just a note for IF we decide that assigning a few roles to the top is necessary:
Thief should be forced to steal the most imba mafia role immediately, as this will both confirm that he is thief, that thief can't be used again, and whether or not the person who was supposed to pick the imba role actually picked it or not.
That being said, I'm still mulling over the possible advantages of assigning the top 4-5 spots. I originally thought that it was a bad idea, because mafia will likely deny themselves powerful combinations, but it might be a good idea to try to assign a role that is really imba by itself. (The part that I'm still looking over is whether or not there is actually a role that powerful by itself that we need to assign it.)
This is very very smart. I fully agree with having thief immediately swipe, as it confirms two dangerous roles at once.
The two roles that are imba on their own merits are: Inventor, Assassin. Inventor can give his teammates anything, Assassin has infinite immediate hidden kills. Thief and Roleswapper are assigned only by virtue of keeping track on the first two.
On October 13 2011 02:04 Jackal58 wrote:
I'm not agreeing to follow or not follow anything. Last PYP game I did and it just got me dead.
The problem is even if everybody says they will half of them are lying. And that doesn't include scum. I will pick what I believe to still be available at the position I get placed in the draft.
Cool. We'll see you on Day 1, as I guess there is no need for you to participate in the next two days.
Some of us are trying to use the in game mechanics to get town on the best possible footing, some players are not. Which one are you?
On October 13 2011 01:48 sandroba wrote:
NOT denying is the superior denying strategy this game. Mafia is not guaranteed to get what they want unless they get first pick AND the first picks already have a lot of focus on them. Letting mafia fight over the best roles for them will ensure we end up with several vanilla mafia. If we deny mafia the best roles they might pick roles town would want and they would be denying town instead.
DO NOT DENY.
This doesn't make any sense. We're discussing this tonight on skype as I assure you, this makes no sense. Assigning several dangerous picks to the top slots actually increases the likelihood of mafia overlapping on the other pro-mafia roles
As an aside, Mafia will not draft town roles in an effort to deny town, as that puts them at a severe disadvantage to the other mafia teams.
Mafia Team A takes powerful town roles
Mafia Team B takes powerful mafia roles
Guess which team is more likely to win?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On October 13 2011 02:18 wherebugsgo wrote:
Can someone explain to me how Assassin is a good role?
In order to kill someone as the Assassin you need their role, alignment, and in the case of mafia, family.
How the hell does one determine a scum member's family?
You only need to know the role OR the alignment. Therefore, if anyone claims their role, the assassin can immediately kill them. They can do this instantaneously, infinitely, and while remaining hidden.
All roleclaims become death sentences. If combo-ed with extractor, role cop, NKVD, or capitalist, it becomes a sure kill for mafia.
The fact that you need a scum member's family is precisely why this is a fantastic role for mafia, and only a mediocre role for town.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On October 13 2011 02:28 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2011 02:26 Radfield wrote:On October 13 2011 01:27 JimboSilvers wrote:
Just a note for IF we decide that assigning a few roles to the top is necessary:
Thief should be forced to steal the most imba mafia role immediately, as this will both confirm that he is thief, that thief can't be used again, and whether or not the person who was supposed to pick the imba role actually picked it or not.
That being said, I'm still mulling over the possible advantages of assigning the top 4-5 spots. I originally thought that it was a bad idea, because mafia will likely deny themselves powerful combinations, but it might be a good idea to try to assign a role that is really imba by itself. (The part that I'm still looking over is whether or not there is actually a role that powerful by itself that we need to assign it.) This is very very smart. I fully agree with having thief immediately swipe, as it confirms two dangerous roles at once. The two roles that are imba on their own merits are: Inventor, Assassin. Inventor can give his teammates anything, Assassin has infinite immediate hidden kills. Thief and Roleswapper are assigned only by virtue of keeping track on the first two. On October 13 2011 02:04 Jackal58 wrote:
I'm not agreeing to follow or not follow anything. Last PYP game I did and it just got me dead.
The problem is even if everybody says they will half of them are lying. And that doesn't include scum. I will pick what I believe to still be available at the position I get placed in the draft.
Cool. We'll see you on Day 1, as I guess there is no need for you to participate in the next two days. Some of us are trying to use the in game mechanics to get town on the best possible footing, some players are not. Which one are you? On October 13 2011 01:48 sandroba wrote:
NOT denying is the superior denying strategy this game. Mafia is not guaranteed to get what they want unless they get first pick AND the first picks already have a lot of focus on them. Letting mafia fight over the best roles for them will ensure we end up with several vanilla mafia. If we deny mafia the best roles they might pick roles town would want and they would be denying town instead.
DO NOT DENY. This doesn't make any sense. We're discussing this tonight on skype as I assure you, this makes no sense. Assigning several dangerous picks to the top slots actually increases the likelihood of mafia overlapping on the other pro-mafia roles As an aside, Mafia will not draft town roles in an effort to deny town, as that puts them at a severe disadvantage to the other mafia teams. Mafia Team A takes powerful town roles
Mafia Team B takes powerful mafia rolesGuess which team is more likely to win? I'm the realist that has watched scum and dumb townies shit up this same plan twice before. You immune to scummies and dummies?
The thing is Jackal, NOT having a plan doesn't put us on any better footing. We still have all the potential downside, but we lose all our potential upside. Scummies and dummies can still shit things up, only we just have plain LESS info.
My challenge to you: Give me a scenario involving my pick-assignment plan that is worse than if we had done no pick assignment at all. I'm not saying there isn't one, but I can't see it right now. Prove me wrong.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On October 13 2011 02:35 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +This I completely agree with. Investigative + Protective, with a dash of KP mixed in. That is towns best set-up. However, we can have that and still assign some slots at the top to keep the most dangerous roles accountable. The two ideas work well together and are not mutually exclusive. Oh ok, I get what you're saying now, yeah, this works out then. Assassins can only kill once per cycle. Show nested quote +Should you succeed in your hit, you are refunded your kill to use again in the following cycle or later and nobody is the wiser.
You're completely right. In fact, that should have been obvious. My bad. The worst the assassin can do is double his team KP. Bad, but not horrendous. Likely still worthy of a pick if we do try to use the top slots for accountability roles.
On October 13 2011 02:36 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2011 19:15 Radfield wrote:
CPR Doctor: In a normal PYP set-up, this is an essential role to block, as it adds immensely to mafia kill power. However, in this set-up it is much less scary to town. First, there is a chance that any shot will kill mafia instead of town(~33%). Second, there is a chance that the CPR doc will actually SAVE someone. With likely 4 or 5 KP per night the CPR doc will get progressively more likely to start making saves. Combine that with the fact that separate mafia factions will be trying to kill the same strong townies, and the chance for a save climbs even higher. NOT WORTHY OF A PICK I'm not sure I understand this logic. You argue that a shot may kill mafia, instead of town, but how is that any different from any of the other kp roles? Just becaues the scum have the ability to shoot each other, doesn't mean we want to provide them the opportunity to double their kp. Sure, there is a chance that mafia shots overlap and result in a save, but what makes you think the scum team won't go for the power roles with their normal shot and the CPR shot into the lower ranks? I think the role is far too powerful to straight out tell people not to pick it.
First off, by 'not worthy of a pick' I meant that we don't need to assign a slot to keep the role accountable. Not that no townie should ever pick it. Lets assume you knew this though.
I'm simply laying out the reasons that this role is not nearly as frightening as in other PYP incarnations. In a normal game scum can double the amount of townies that die by having the CPR Doc. In this set-up, that is simply not the case.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On October 13 2011 03:07 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2011 02:33 Radfield wrote:On October 13 2011 02:28 Jackal58 wrote:On October 13 2011 02:26 Radfield wrote:On October 13 2011 01:27 JimboSilvers wrote:
Just a note for IF we decide that assigning a few roles to the top is necessary:
Thief should be forced to steal the most imba mafia role immediately, as this will both confirm that he is thief, that thief can't be used again, and whether or not the person who was supposed to pick the imba role actually picked it or not.
That being said, I'm still mulling over the possible advantages of assigning the top 4-5 spots. I originally thought that it was a bad idea, because mafia will likely deny themselves powerful combinations, but it might be a good idea to try to assign a role that is really imba by itself. (The part that I'm still looking over is whether or not there is actually a role that powerful by itself that we need to assign it.) This is very very smart. I fully agree with having thief immediately swipe, as it confirms two dangerous roles at once. The two roles that are imba on their own merits are: Inventor, Assassin. Inventor can give his teammates anything, Assassin has infinite immediate hidden kills. Thief and Roleswapper are assigned only by virtue of keeping track on the first two. On October 13 2011 02:04 Jackal58 wrote:
I'm not agreeing to follow or not follow anything. Last PYP game I did and it just got me dead.
The problem is even if everybody says they will half of them are lying. And that doesn't include scum. I will pick what I believe to still be available at the position I get placed in the draft.
Cool. We'll see you on Day 1, as I guess there is no need for you to participate in the next two days. Some of us are trying to use the in game mechanics to get town on the best possible footing, some players are not. Which one are you? On October 13 2011 01:48 sandroba wrote:
NOT denying is the superior denying strategy this game. Mafia is not guaranteed to get what they want unless they get first pick AND the first picks already have a lot of focus on them. Letting mafia fight over the best roles for them will ensure we end up with several vanilla mafia. If we deny mafia the best roles they might pick roles town would want and they would be denying town instead.
DO NOT DENY. This doesn't make any sense. We're discussing this tonight on skype as I assure you, this makes no sense. Assigning several dangerous picks to the top slots actually increases the likelihood of mafia overlapping on the other pro-mafia roles As an aside, Mafia will not draft town roles in an effort to deny town, as that puts them at a severe disadvantage to the other mafia teams. Mafia Team A takes powerful town roles
Mafia Team B takes powerful mafia rolesGuess which team is more likely to win? I'm the realist that has watched scum and dumb townies shit up this same plan twice before. You immune to scummies and dummies? The thing is Jackal, NOT having a plan doesn't put us on any better footing. We still have all the potential downside, but we lose all our potential upside. Scummies and dummies can still shit things up, only we just have plain LESS info. My challenge to you: Give me a scenario involving my pick-assignment plan that is worse than if we had done no pick assignment at all. I'm not saying there isn't one, but I can't see it right now. Prove me wrong. That's my point. There is no plan that is going to work. There are 5 or 6 people discussing the merits of various plans. There are another 20 or so people that are going to do whatever they want to. Some scum. Some town. My challenge to you - Get everybody to sign on to your plan. Or any plan. And then remain calm as the game progresses and you realize 80% of the people that said "great idea let's do it" didn't. I'm not saying your plan is bad. I'm not saying anybodies plan is bad. I'm saying it's not going to work because most people aren't going to follow it. It creates a scenario of false expectations that gets townies lynched.
My plan does not rely on needed all 28 players to follow it. My plan only needs the top 5. If you read my plan you would see that the rest of the picks are up to the discretion of the players, with emphasis on investigative roles, and using the priority list I made.
So then the question becomes, can we hold the top 5 players accountable for their picks? The answer is Yes, we certainly can.
Radfield:
Scenario- number 5 on your list flips VT
What course of action would town take?
This means that a player tried to take JOAT at 5, but it was already taken. We should not have had to wait for his flip, as he should have immediately blew the whistle that his role was swiped by a player above him. Really it would be a null tell though, as JOAT is a pro-town choice(and coveted), and someone may have wanted it for themselves. Cops would look into the top 4 slots, and the discovered JOAT would be placed under more scrutiny. If the role that was not taken(assassin or Inventor or whatever) starts being used for evil, then we can lynch the JOAT given the likelihood that he is scum and let the role slip down. Or not, either way we have important information.
Assuming we had no assignment list though, this is a non-starter. So what if the player at 5 flips VT, it just means he doubled up with someone else. We learn nothing in this situation.
Honestly, I would say neither option has a distinct option in this scenario. Certainly does not fit the bill of a situation where no role allocation is better than a bit of role allocation.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Finally getting some good arguments, and finally getting some good support. This is good stuff.
Jimbo, I hear what you're saying, and agree with much of it. I also understand your point analogy very well. However in this case I'm imagining that the accountability picks are effective against all three mafia teams, hence giving us a leg up on all of them. Not only vs 1 particular team(in fact I'm not even sure how that would work at this stage)
I also agree that it is likely the top picks will be fiercely targeted by the mafia. However, I'm ok with that as if the thief, Roleswapper and assassin all die that is ok with me. Inventor we want to protect, and we can heap our protection upon him.
Also, and I want to stress this, mafia are more likely to have those dangerous top spots. Although there are more townies numerically, each mafia team gets to co-ordinate their picks, meaning they are far less likely to collide. This means that the potential killing ground of picks 1-5 is not so bad for town after all.
And since mafia are getting those top picks anyways, we might as well assign them to them, no?
On October 13 2011 03:23 syllogism wrote:
So what happens if we assign, say, thief to #1 and he ends up being mafia, picks Hero/veteran instead and lets his buddy near the bottom get thief who then steals inventor or some other role? The #1 player can claim RB for instance, so we will have to waste a check on him anyway and even then there's the issue of actually lynching him. I suppose we can still deal with it if town has KP, but they could also have a medic role. The point being, the setup is quite complex and I'm not completely convinced the perceived "accountability" is worth the trade of having mafia know where the roles are.
There's even no guarantee that town will get the role cop roles.
This is an excellent point. In fact, I think the main problem people have with the accountability picks is the threat of mafia letting the picks slip down to a scumbuddy. So, what if we added in a player who takes one of the top picks randomly, just to see if there is slippage going on:
#1 Inventor
#2 Assassin
#3 Thief
#4 Role Swapper
#5 25% chance of either Inventor, Assassin, Thief or Swapper
or
#1 Inventor
#2 Thief
#3 Role Swapper
#4 33% chance of either Inventor, Thief or Swapper
Something like this. That makes it much more risky to try and let a role slip down to a scum buddy. Honestly, I'm not necessarily sold that we NEED to have accountability picks, but I do think they have potential to be advantageous to town.
Keep in mind, the only real goal is to NOT let the inventor fall into the hands of an anonymous mafia player. I think this is a good goal, and one worthy of discussion.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On October 13 2011 03:48 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2011 19:15 Radfield wrote:
First off, by 'not worthy of a pick' I meant that we don't need to assign a slot to keep the role accountable. Not that no townie should ever pick it. Lets assume you knew this though. Well by not including it in your tier list or "top 28 town roles" list, you're essentially suggesting that it doesn't have much value. I'm saying I still think its one of the most powerful roles and if we're going to have a town priority list, it needs to be present.
You're right. CPR doc should be on the priority list.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Hmm, I'm really not sure at this point if it makes sense to allocate the top picks or not. My thought is in a perfect world(where everyone follows the plan) it will likely work out great.
However, worse case scenario is that some of the top picks vocally follow the plan, and some vocally do not. This gives us half a plan, which is actually pretty bad for us. The more slots we allocate, the higher the chance of this happening.
With this in mind, we should probably only allocate 3 slots, Inventor, Thief and Swapper. However, this leaves the assassin free to kill the inventor day 1, which is a problem. Hence the addition of the assassin into the mix.
I'm honestly not sure what the best play is. Every pyp game I have played so far the inventor has ended up known, and in town hands. But with 12 mafia players, the chances of them getting the #1 slot are quite high.
What about this:
#1 Inventor
#2 Assassin
#3 Thief
#4 Swapper
#5/6/7/8 all take whatever, but also randomize in a % chance to take one of the top roles. This means Mafia cannot take for granted the ability to let a role slip, and take a risk of losing an excellent role by getting greedy.
Jimbo's thief/swapper ideas can be put to use as well to help speedily confirm the top picks.
I'd like to talk this out with people tonight. If anyone is interested and is around in about an hour or so, lets chat on IRC/Skype/whatever and hash this out. I particularly want to discuss with people who disagree with the allocation, as hopefully we can find solutions.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Jimbo, I don't think the role swapper works like that:
You have the ability to swap roles with any target. This effectively gives you all your target’s powers, while giving them the role swapping power. (They are free to use it the next night.) The role swap occurs after all night actions are resolved, and you inherit their role with the amount of uses they have left.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I agree on Framer. It is a high priority pick for mafia, and has the potential to do a lot of harm.
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Radfield
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On October 13 2011 07:16 hiro protagonist wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2011 06:52 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
I keep assuming that people take the role they're assigned -_-
And sense we cant do that, lets look at what is most important: In this set up, It is better to stay alive then to kill. Alot of people have the misconception (or are trying to persuade) that Mafia would want to focus on killing other mafia. This is wrong. A more realistic set of priority's is 1. stay alive and 2. take down threats, whether that be mafia or otherwise. There not gonna give a shit about other teams until the end game. The largest advantage as town we have is are numbers. We can compound this advantage by focusing on protective roles. This should be are primary focus imo.We out last them, while at the same time denying them protection. This also senrgizes well with KP, because KP aimed at town has a greater chance of failing while KP landing on Mafia has a higher chance of success. I would like to introduce a plan where if you are town and you are NOT one of the first 4 people to pick, to focus on Protective roles in a tiered format. If you are in the first 4, Pick Inventor or Framer. If you are near the bottom, chose a KP role, or a DT role. Thoughts?
Mafia motives will be like so:
During the day, lynch scum for maximum town cred
During the night, snipe town investigative roles
We can talk about town priority lists tomorrow though. It would be nice to hash the rest out before the pick order is revealed.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
So, me and Sandro have been discussing extensively the potential plans. At this point I am inclined to side with both him and Jimbo, and NOT allocate picks. We've been throwing around the idea of allocating the top pick the NRA member, but I'm not sure how valuable that is.
Basically my entire list boils down to keeping tabs on the inventor. Which as Jimbo pointed out, is perhaps not worthy of allocating a whole bunch of picks. Frankly, Inventor will likely fall in the top few picks anyways, especially if any town-aligned player in the top 3 tries for it. Scum will not be able to let it slip far, as they risk losing it outright and having a lower player get vanilla.
So, this brings us to the town role priority list, which me and Sandro were working on. Basically the idea is to focus purely on Investigative/Defensive/Protective roles in the top 20 slots. Slots 20-28 will then take either KP roles or miscellaneous roles.
Still hammering out some details, but the list will follow. It is not set in stone by any means, and it a guideline for townies to pick from. The lower in the draft order you are, the lower on the role list you pick, etc. The only real goal of the list is to minimize overlap among townies, and to give a list of effective pro-town roles.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
List looks something like this. NRA should probably have a spot, or at least needs to be dealt with in some fashion, but at this point I'm not sure how.
Investigative/Defensive Roles Picks 1-20
Jack
Inventor
Rock Star
NKVD
Doctor
Detective
Bulletproof
Meth Man
Medic
Capitalist
Parity Cop
Veteran
Jailkeeper
Bullet Bill
Witch
Role Cop
Tracker
KP and Auxillary Roles Picks #21-28
Dreamflower
Day Vig
America
King Maker
Qatol
Copy Cat
Mad Hatter
Bad Santa
Ace
This is the general priority list. Several strong KP roles have been left off the KP list, as the chances of Vig/CPR/Assassin etc making it that far down is essentially nil. Likewise roles like Thief and Role Swapper are not on the axillary list, because they will likely be picked up by mafia higher up.
There is a general tilt to the 1-20 list in favor of putting roles which are strong for both mafia and town towards the top, and roles that are only strong for town further down.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
very very subtly..... 
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Supersoft, are you sure you didn't take [4][3] as opposed to [3][4]? Either that or Chaoser must have taken 3 as his first number.
because otherwise the draft is slightly off, as picking 3 for your first number would be unique.
The missing numbers:
prp [2][?]
Acctocod[4][?]
Jackal[9][?]
Errandor[1][1]
Siniani[1][?]
Revealing if you get vanilla or not is generally a bad idea. You only want to reveal it if there is a good reason, because otherwise you are just narrowing down the list of players to shoot at. Not to mention, you're basically advertising that you are a likely bodyguard.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Do not take dreamflower or Doctor if you plan on running for mayor. These roles have the potential to commit suicide, which negates the amazing protection an elected role confers. Common sense, but worse mentioning.
Do not take witch unless you are certain you will be around at the daypost every single time. I assume that you only get a few minutes to make your decision on whom to save.
I didn't realize that Vet could actually dodge 1 lynch. This makes it far more likely that mafia will try and grab it, which means it probably shouldn't be on the 15-20 list.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Here's the thing with the mayor. In a normal set-up. one scum HAS to run for mayor, as not competing for the elected roles leaves you at a serious disadvantage. However, running for mayor also comes at a cost to mafia, as they have to spotlight themselves. Increased scrutiny goes hand in hand with running for mayor.
It is very viable for any single mafia team to simply not run, and hope that some other scum team competes and spotlights themselves. Discussion will center around every candidate running, so the ability to stay out of the spotlight while still splitting up the elected roles between multiple teams is a tempting prospect.
A couple guidelines for running for mayor as i see them:
* Do not run for mayor if you are dreamflower or Doctor
* Do not run for mayor if you are vanilla townie, unless you are a solid scumhunter(or have zero faith in any of the other options)
_______________
Framer+ NRA member poses an interesting problem. If a town player takes NRA member, the optimal play is to claim, but only if the framer has also claimed. An NRA member can absolutely NOT CLAIM if the framer is hidden. As pointed out by others, the framer could simply direct any claimed blues into the NRA member.
For this reason, I think it makes sense for Dropbear to go for Framer. I haven't fully thought of all the possibilities, but in my current wine-addled state this makes a lot of sense. There exists the possibility for Dropbear to be mafia, but I don't think there is very much mischief he can cause to us by lying, especially compared with the amount of attention he would draw on himself. Cost benefit analysis says he should draft Framer.
However, the thief/roleswapper is a problem as they could swipe the power. Dropbear can't simply come out into the thread and claim he got it. This is where Chaosers Qatol plan comes in. If a player lower down takes Qatol, they can PM Dropbear and ask him if he got framer, then ban him if he did. This nullifies the power, and leaves us in good shape.
This is a bit convoluted I admit, but I do like the idea of Dropbear going for Framer. Not much risk vs moderate reward.
________________________
Kenpachi, you have the second overall pick. I'd love to hear your overall thoughts on the game so far.
Mig, I'd like to hear your thoughts too. Is our current townie picking plan a good one? What are potential downfalls? Are there any roles that should be on the tier list? Etc.
Protact, I think you missed this question when i asked it earlier:
If cupid tries to tie the NRA member to another player, will cupid be killed?
also
What order are actions performed in. If a role swapper and thief both target the same player, which person gets the role? First player to send in their action I presume?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
well, the idea is to consolidate KP roles in the slots 20-28. This gives role cop/capitalist/bullet bill/tracker maximum potential. Any players caught with KP roles below twenty are instantly suspicious.
For Reference:
Investigative/Defensive Roles Picks 1-20
Top 6 pick one of these roles taken into consideration high placed mafia may take something else:
Inventor
Jack
NRA (must claim)
Rock Star
7-14:
NKVD
Medic
Detective
Veteran
Bulletproof
Doctor
Parity Cop
15-20
Jailkeeper
Bullet Bill
Capitalist
Meth Man
Bulletproof
Witch
Role Cop
Veteran
Tracker
KP and Auxillary Roles Picks #21-28
Methman
Day Vig
Dreamflower
America
King Maker
Qatol
Copy Cat
Mad Hatter
Bad Santa
Ace
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Besides, dt roles plus defensive roles will win us this game. A couple KP roles will be handy to deal with the excess mafia, but on the whole the key to victory is investigative + defensive. Besides, the KP roles that are on the list are the ones least likely to be taken by mafia, and so have the highest likelyhood of still being around at the bottom of the draft.
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EPT
