EPTCosmic Horror Mafia - Page 30
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On August 31 2011 08:21 Jackal58 wrote: I have no idea if the Psych visited me or not. It wouldn't matter if he did unless I'm insane. I am not the EA. I cannot visit anybody at night. I cannot harm the Psych if he does visit me. I wish people would quit assuming that the Psych visited me. We have no idea if he did. We certainly don't want him claiming until the EA is dead. So please stop assuming I was visited. That kind of thinking is going to get us in a pickle. I know we asked the Psych to visit you and you didn´t die, that´s something. | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 31 2011 08:21 Jackal58 wrote: I have no idea if the Psych visited me or not. It wouldn't matter if he did unless I'm insane. I am not the EA. I cannot visit anybody at night. I cannot harm the Psych if he does visit me. I wish people would quit assuming that the Psych visited me. We have no idea if he did. We certainly don't want him claiming until the EA is dead. So please stop assuming I was visited. That kind of thinking is going to get us in a pickle. I support this post of Jackal's. We can vote on who the psych should visit all we want, but we have no way of knowing if they did or not. If I were psych, I would probably be picking my own target, since voting gives EA too much information, and I would rather visit someone insane than the EA. It's much better in the long run to have the pysch alive and lynch the EA based on analysis alone. On August 31 2011 07:03 Forumite wrote: I like it how Erandorr come when you make a FoS on him =) Chaos13, you haven´t seen/answered the FoS I sent on you, it went out just before the new day, and regards the same thing Cyber pointed out. Basically, it´s that you didn´t want to send the Psych on Jackal, who you think is the EA. You argued that it´s a waste to send the Psych to die, it might look that way, but it´s craplogic. If we get the EA because the Psych die finding him, then we can be much more sure on the lynch. Also, if we send the Psych and he doesn´t die, then we can be more or less sure that Jackal is not the EA. That´s the thing that looked bad, it looked like you wanted to make sure that Jackal was not cleared of EA-suspicion, so that you could lynch him today. Anyway, I´m looking forward to that analysis on Jackal. I want to hear what made you so sure about Jackal that you thought a Psych verification was unnecessary. I've pretty much addressed this above. If I think Jackal is the EA, why should I want the psych to go visit him and get killed? That defeats the point of the skipped night phase. I would much rather the psych visit someone insane and cure them, and keep the EA farther from their win condition than have the pysch go get themselves killed when we can't actually confirm that they visited the target everyone voted on. Analysis on Jackal in progress. Will be up in an hour or two probably. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
Ya you're doing it again dude. | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
 General consensus seems to be that I'm wasting time. So be it. Jackal is no longer a suspect. I'll start looking elsewhere. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On August 31 2011 09:28 chaos13 wrote: General consensus seems to be that I'm wasting time. So be it. Jackal is no longer a suspect. I'll start looking elsewhere. Put forward your ideas. I still want to see them. This is right up there with people believing the Psych visited me. Complacency will kill us as surely as misplaced zeal. At least give me a synopsis of it. If this game comes down to lylo and we're still both in it and you're town and you believe me to be scum or 3rd party we're fucked. Unless you're scum or the EA then stuff it. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On August 31 2011 09:28 chaos13 wrote: Wait, what? So, you think Jackal is scum, most likely EA, but because other people don't agree (before you've even posted an actual analysis), you just drop it?General consensus seems to be that I'm wasting time. So be it. Jackal is no longer a suspect. I'll start looking elsewhere. The point of analysis is to convince people to agree with you, and show them your reasoning for your reads. Even if you made an analysis, and came to the conclusion that Jackal is actually town, that's still useful for town. Dropping your suspicion so easily because people don't initially agree with your read, and without even trying to convince them, just makes it seem like you thought your case was weak to begin with, meaning you were just looking to start a bandwagon on someone. ##Vote: Chaos13 | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On August 31 2011 09:01 chaos13 wrote: I've pretty much addressed this above. If I think Jackal is the EA, why should I want the psych to go visit him and get killed? That defeats the point of the skipped night phase. I would much rather the psych visit someone insane and cure them, and keep the EA farther from their win condition than have the pysch go get themselves killed when we can't actually confirm that they visited the target everyone voted on. Analysis on Jackal in progress. Will be up in an hour or two probably. That explains it, I missed/scimmed over your earlier explanation. We view this differently, I think finding the EA is the important job of the Psychologist, while you think it´s keeping people sane. As for Jackal, I still want to hear your analysis. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
Let me preface this by saying I am no longer at all sure that Jackal is EA. There's evidence for it, but when the whole town starts questioning you there comes a point where you begin to wonder if you're sniffing down the wrong trail. So here we go. What needs to be determined first is what the goals of the EA will actually be. This is simple. 1) Visit the psychologist 2) Do some serious mafia hunting. You want town cred and you're not afraid of getting hit for being correct. A lot of Jackal's posts are solid. He's really good at not giving anything away without making it obvious. I'll just go with the posts that stand out to me. On August 25 2011 08:10 Jackal58 wrote: My apologies for my absence. It was a brutal day at work today. The fuckers broke everything. I have only read this page and will get caught up shortly but I do have a question for the Ferryman. You state rightly so that we are here to lynch scum. Yet you are obsessed with the EH. Why? I understand he's 3rd party. I understand he's anti town. I also understand that he won't kill anybody barring a chance encounter with the psych. Scum are most certainly going to begin killing us. Fuck the EH for now. We have bigger fish to fry. Of course I might be all wrong as I have just read this page atm and if so I'll be more than happy to stfu after I get caught up. I'll post my thoughts in a bit. I also have to catch up on XLIX. While this is a reasonable post, it has some strange motivations behind it. He would really like Ferryman to quit searching so hard for the EA, because apparently scum are more important. Let's see how that would work out. 3 scum, takes us 3 days to lynch. 3 kills by that point, 3 lynches, and possibility of psych dying due to EA. That brings us down to 2 insane townies 3 sane townies 1 EA Assuming we lynched mafia every day from day 1, this is a worst case scenario, with the EA visiting the psych and two townies who survived. This doesn't look too good to me. Whereas if we lynch the EA, we skip a night phase and get 2 lynches in a row...looks good to me. Jackal isn't one to miss something like this. EA and mafia are equal priority, and his wanting to take out mafia over EA doesn't look too good. On August 25 2011 08:46 Jackal58 wrote: If anybody ever accuses me of tunneling again I'm going to bitch slap them. Ferryman we get it. You think Wiggles is the EH. You may very well be right. Guess what? Right now I don't care about the EH. But you sure as hell do. You are either the psych or scum. I know you have a very good grasp on how this game works. You are also on the opposite end of the brilliance spectrum from Cyber_cheese. Put your efforts into something other than tunneling your EH suspect. Please. I'm filtering all of you from most to least interesting so I'm going to be a while. Again, he's pushing Ferryman away from hunting the EA. Something I would really like to point out is this On August 25 2011 08:46 Jackal58 wrote: You are either the psych or scum. No possibility of him being the EA. What better cover would there be for an EA than hunting for their own role? Not for a moment does Jackal consider this possibility. In games I've played previously I've been about to hit submit and then realized I made a slip like this. I consider this to be a slip revealing that he's the EA. On August 28 2011 20:58 Jackal58 wrote: I spent almost 3 hours looking at every post in this game for breadcrumbs. I wasn't looking at anything of Jee Jee's in particular. I saw the U Mad first. And then found the rest. I found one other post that may contain a breadcrumb but I'm not positive it is. At any rate I am not going to share that post, or user, or what he may be claiming. Y'all can go find it yourselves. I've already gone over this stuff, but I'll mention it briefly again. 3 hours looking for breadcrumbs? Jackal's hunting the psych, which you'll remember is priority #1 of the EA. On August 31 2011 01:33 Jackal58 wrote: If I were EA Chaos The Ferryman would not have been sane. I considered him to be high on the list of probable Psychs. Were I EA he would have been my night one visit. If I were scum Chaos you would be dead today and not the Ferryman. So unless you are either A) The EA or B) Scum please kindly start looking for realsies instead of insisting I am something I'm not. Of course if you are either scum or EA please continue to tunnel me. And then this. Sorry for wasting so much time yesterday. Let the discussion begin. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
Also: To: Tackster [ Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: important notice Date: 8/31/11 22:57 I got my university schedule finalized and I highly doubt I'll be around 23 KST. So I will have to ask you to extend/end day 3 for me. After that you can set the night 3 deadline to 22:00 KST and I can take over from there. @Jackal58 He hadn't posted for over 48 hours, so I PM'd him to see what is up. Usually I'll do this silently to avoid clogging, but since I had to announce night 3 deadline change anyway I threw it in. | ||
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tnkted
United States1359 Posts
1. Mr. Wiggles 2. Cyber_Cheese 3. Sevryn 4. TheFerryman 5. chaos13 6. 7. Navillus 8. Eiii 9. 10. Jackal58 11. Forumite 12. Erandorr 13. tnkted These are my reads. So, before we start getting off track here, ##vote: sevryn like we should have been doing earlier. I'm getting red vibe off forumite. If you read his post history it's all soft FoS's that he doesn't really follow through on. I don't think chaos13 is scum, I just think he doesn't read very closely and gets too excited about his 'scumtells' that don't actually mean anything. That being said, Chaos, you aren't reacting properly to pressure at all. I think you're town, but if you keep acting batshit insane whenever people don't agree with you, I'm changing my vote to follow wiggles. EVERY VOTE SEVRYN NAO | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
And I'm just gonna spoiler this and answer below. Most of it addresses the same issue so my answer will cover most of it. + Show Spoiler + On August 31 2011 22:36 chaos13 wrote: Because they're waiting for my analysis of you. Sorry about the wait everyone, I was frustrated with this game last night and decided it would be best to clear my head and smarten up before attempting some analysis. Let me preface this by saying I am no longer at all sure that Jackal is EA. There's evidence for it, but when the whole town starts questioning you there comes a point where you begin to wonder if you're sniffing down the wrong trail. So here we go. What needs to be determined first is what the goals of the EA will actually be. This is simple. 1) Visit the psychologist 2) Do some serious mafia hunting. You want town cred and you're not afraid of getting hit for being correct. A lot of Jackal's posts are solid. He's really good at not giving anything away without making it obvious. I'll just go with the posts that stand out to me. While this is a reasonable post, it has some strange motivations behind it. He would really like Ferryman to quit searching so hard for the EA, because apparently scum are more important. Let's see how that would work out. 3 scum, takes us 3 days to lynch. 3 kills by that point, 3 lynches, and possibility of psych dying due to EA. That brings us down to 2 insane townies 3 sane townies 1 EA Assuming we lynched mafia every day from day 1, this is a worst case scenario, with the EA visiting the psych and two townies who survived. This doesn't look too good to me. Whereas if we lynch the EA, we skip a night phase and get 2 lynches in a row...looks good to me. Jackal isn't one to miss something like this. EA and mafia are equal priority, and his wanting to take out mafia over EA doesn't look too good. Again, he's pushing Ferryman away from hunting the EA. Something I would really like to point out is this No possibility of him being the EA. What better cover would there be for an EA than hunting for their own role? Not for a moment does Jackal consider this possibility. In games I've played previously I've been about to hit submit and then realized I made a slip like this. I consider this to be a slip revealing that he's the EA. I've already gone over this stuff, but I'll mention it briefly again. 3 hours looking for breadcrumbs? Jackal's hunting the psych, which you'll remember is priority #1 of the EA. And then this. Sorry for wasting so much time yesterday. Let the discussion begin. On the Ferryman I simply wanted him to stop tunneling. At the point I made that first post you quoted we were all well aware of what he thought of Wiggles and adding more of the same just gave us all another 20 paragraphs on "NO U" to read. That's it. No ulterior motivation. And yes he came across to me as either Psych or scum. Not the EA. And if I truly was the EA Ferryman would not have been sane when scum hit him. I would have visited him. The EA isn't posting in this game. It's either Eiii or Erandorr. One is scum the other is 3rd party. And I really was killing time when I went through all the posts in this game looking for breadcrumbs. No ulterior motive there either. And wtf does "Sevryn was prodded" mean? | ||
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tnkted
United States1359 Posts
1. Mr. Wiggles 2. Cyber_Cheese 3. Sevryn 4. 5. chaos13 6. 7. Navillus 8. Eiii 9. 10. Jackal58 11. Forumite 12. Erandorr 13. tnkted Forgot a few things lol | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On August 31 2011 23:25 tnkted wrote: Player List 1. Mr. Wiggles 2. Cyber_Cheese 3. Sevryn 4. TheFerryman 5. chaos13 6. 7. Navillus 8. Eiii 9. 10. Jackal58 11. Forumite 12. Erandorr 13. tnkted These are my reads. So, before we start getting off track here, ##vote: sevryn like we should have been doing earlier. I'm getting red vibe off forumite. If you read his post history it's all soft FoS's that he doesn't really follow through on. I don't think chaos13 is scum, I just think he doesn't read very closely and gets too excited about his 'scumtells' that don't actually mean anything. That being said, Chaos, you aren't reacting properly to pressure at all. I think you're town, but if you keep acting batshit insane whenever people don't agree with you, I'm changing my vote to follow wiggles. EVERY VOTE SEVRYN NAO Is Sevryn still alive? Is Sevryn blue? Wtf does PRODDED mean???????? | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 31 2011 09:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Wait, what? So, you think Jackal is scum, most likely EA, but because other people don't agree (before you've even posted an actual analysis), you just drop it? The point of analysis is to convince people to agree with you, and show them your reasoning for your reads. Even if you made an analysis, and came to the conclusion that Jackal is actually town, that's still useful for town. Dropping your suspicion so easily because people don't initially agree with your read, and without even trying to convince them, just makes it seem like you thought your case was weak to begin with, meaning you were just looking to start a bandwagon on someone. ##Vote: Chaos13 I was frustrated yesterday. I've since gotten over it. If you really want to vote for me, tell me what mafia objectives I have been pushing this game. What does a mafioso have to gain by making such an outspoken accusation against Jackal, then backing off, and then continuing again? You can see from my games as scum that I like to lurk and lay low. Real analysis won't come from me for a few days, and then it will only be a result of becoming a major town suspect for not contributing. Show me how all my posts represent a mafia agenda. Pressure me today. Ask me questions and decide if my responses are still scummy. Address my analysis on Jackal and see what you think of it. Cyber_Cheese, where are you? You voted for me and left. Not very town-like. | ||
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tnkted
United States1359 Posts
Chill out pops | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 31 2011 23:25 Jackal58 wrote: On the Ferryman I simply wanted him to stop tunneling. At the point I made that first post you quoted we were all well aware of what he thought of Wiggles and adding more of the same just gave us all another 20 paragraphs on "NO U" to read. That's it. No ulterior motivation. And yes he came across to me as either Psych or scum. Not the EA. And if I truly was the EA Ferryman would not have been sane when scum hit him. I would have visited him. The EA isn't posting in this game. It's either Eiii or Erandorr. One is scum the other is 3rd party. And I really was killing time when I went through all the posts in this game looking for breadcrumbs. No ulterior motive there either. And wtf does "Sevryn was prodded" mean? Yeah I'm not gonna be voting for you today. Too much assumption on my part for it to be a proper vote. I'm guessing it means he was PM'ed to post so he doesn't get modkilled for inactivity. Speaking of sevryn, I don't know that he's a good lynch today. The only thing he's got going for him as mafia is JeeJee talking with him a lot, but that doesn't mean he's scum. I'll go ahead and filter/analyze him this morning before I head to work and see what I can find. Jackal if you're so sure of Eiii and Erandorr start putting some evidence behind your accusations. Are you still suspicious of tnkted? | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
These are the only two posts of his that I feel can be analyzed to any degree. On August 24 2011 08:17 Sevryn wrote: This is a strong case for wiggles being the horror. I think that we should focus on the mafia first and the horror second. because our win condition is all threats to the town are eliminated while the scum is just to be equal to the town aligned players which means we are essentially 9v3. mafia has one kp so assuming worst case scenario we lose 2 per day/night cycle so 7v3 second day 5v3 third day. If we reach the case of 5v3 i propose we make it go to a no lynch so that after the mafia kill someone it will be 4v3 instead of instead of a 5v3. I think we should do these in all cases such as 4v2 make it a 3v2 and 1 v 3 make it a 1v2. If we find a good mafia target for a day one lynch i will vote for the mafia because if it gets to where we would abstain for voting for a more town favored lylo we can lynch the horror instead or just save the horror for a day we don't have a good mafia suspect(that could be today but it is still too soon to tell) ##vote Mr. Wiggles I will change my vote if we find a good mafia to lynch Reading this over first I went WTF SCUM. Then I thought about it. Everything sevryn says here is based in thought that benefits town. His proposal of a no-lynch near the end game actually benefits us, because it gives us a much higher chance of actually hitting scum, and gives us the final play rather than mafia. This is probably the only scenario in which I would feel a no-lynch is pro-town, and sevryn gets green cred from me for suggesting it. He also explains why he feels mafia are a better first target than EA. (Now I understand your thought process Jackal) On August 29 2011 00:28 Sevryn wrote: i Just woke up and have not read the last page of the thread if you look over the thread you will notice that everything that "links" me to jeejee and tnkted. are all posts made by someone else. moreover the subtle disconnects attack on me was an incredibly weak attack. the fact that I didn't defend myself or try to distance myself from tnkted all shows something IMO. of course tnkted did almost get lynched first day which is why you think he is scum besides the fact that palmar died night one. which is weird when you consider he was pretty sure that tnkted was townie. when we lynched jeejee if he flips red if there is no better case we could lynch tnkted but your case against me seems to be long and well thought out but it relies on both tnkted and jeejee being scum. This post is also true. My entire attack on him was based on things that JeeJee said, not things that sevryn said. I believe he also states a suspicion of tnkted, but that could just be a misunderstanding on my part. Summary sevryn has pro-town interests and is not mafia. Slight chance of EA, but not likely. | ||
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