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Cosmic Horror Mafia - Page 32

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
August 31 2011 21:11 GMT
#621
Fun fact, at the end of the Day 1 lynch, it was JeeJee, Wiggles, tnkted and Cyber that didn´t have their vote on either tnkted or Wiggles, the two most likely candidates.
:3
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
August 31 2011 21:52 GMT
#622
That's because I had to go to sleep. -_-

If you look at the vote count ~4 hours before lynch, there were 5 votes on tnkted, 3 on me, and 3 on palmar.

Either a Palmar or Wiggles lynch were equally valid at that point, it's just that people decided to bandwagon on me, instead of Palmar, for those unvoting tnkted. I was also asleep at that point, so as votes came off of Palmar, I wasn't able to switch to tnkted if I needed too.

However, the day actually ended with three votes on tnkted, and three votes on Palmar, so at what point did tnkted become a "more likely candidate" than Palmar?

Nice logic.
you gotta dance
Hesmyrr
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Canada5776 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-09-01 12:42:43
August 31 2011 22:36 GMT
#623
On September 01 2011 05:15 Tackster wrote:
Important Notice!!!

Due to Host/Co-Host also being human beings we may be missing for the end of day 3. We are doing our best to resolve this. I'm letting you know there's a possibility that today will be extended free of charge. I will keep you up to date as I know more.

Leaving soon. Just wanted to state after thinking that if extension is used, it won't be free. Also when the deadline is reached and there is majority, and none of the mods are available, the game will be suspended (votes locked, I guess you can post) until we return as usual.
This means you must still respect the deadline. We will try to prevent such delays as much as possible.
"If watching the MSL finals makes you a progamer, then anyone in Korea can do it." - Ha Tae Ki
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
August 31 2011 22:37 GMT
#624
On September 01 2011 06:52 Mr. Wiggles wrote:However, the day actually ended with three votes on tnkted, and three votes on Palmar, so at what point did tnkted become a "more likely candidate" than Palmar?

Nice logic.

Palmar was a less likely candidate because while Wiggles and tnkted got several people voting on them in a row, for Palmar it was much less so. For Palmar, the first vote was from tnkted. Cyber and Eii also voted early, but Cyber and tnkted dropped off. It was very late when tnkted, you Wiggles, and Cyber came back for the final 3 votes. Right before the 3 votes landed on Palmar, 5-6 people voted on tnkted, and after the 3 votes went to Palmar, 5 people voted on Wiggles, almost as if someone tried to redirect the lynch. Palmar was a candidate, but the bandwagons on tnkted and Wiggles were much stronger.

Wiggles, it looks weird, if it´s not you three, then what really happened?
:3
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
August 31 2011 23:23 GMT
#625
Lack of a voting thread sucks.
Other than Ferryman's meta argument against wiggles I don't see much there.
His vote on Palmar appears to be in response to Palmar deciding to push a no lynch. I wasn't online when day 1 ended so I don't really have a feel for the timing of it all. I also freely admit that I have a townie bias on Wiggles in every game we play together. Much the same as I always suspect Palmar as being scum. If you can give me something I'm not seeing other than The Ferryman's meta argument I'll consider it.
Tnkted has given me the wilbers off and on through this whole game. He has some posts that scream "Scum" at me and others that make me think he's town.
I think it is safe to say that either he is scum, 3rd party or a vanilla townie. Tnkted has never gotten a blue role he couldn't wait to claim. Seriously. He claims every game.
So ya they could be the remaining scum but other than the voting I don't feel comfy voting for either of them yet. Hell I don't feel comfy voting for anybody yet.
I'm still not liking the lurking that Erandorr, Eiii and most recently Navillus have exhibited. It's also a bit odd that Nav and Erindorr used the same excuse.
I was in 4 different games when this started. No excuse. Now I'm in 2. Fucking scum.
So go ahead and make a case on Wiggles or Tnkted for me Forumite. Cause I don't see anything on Wiggles and most of what I think of Tnkted I've already posted.
For now I'm going to put a vote on Eiii. He's lurking. Hardcore.
##Vote: Eiii
Life can only kill you once.
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
August 31 2011 23:31 GMT
#626
On August 26 2011 04:32 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
I'm town, but it doesn't even matter if you believe me, because:

I'm town, so I want to kill scum
If I'm EA, I want to kill mafia to buy town cred
If I'm mafia, I want to kill EA on Day 1, as outlined above
I know it´s taken out of context, but it´s such a nice post.

Original post:+ Show Spoiler +
On August 26 2011 04:32 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 26 2011 03:52 Sevryn wrote:
On August 26 2011 02:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:41 Palmar wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:36 Forumite wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:15 Palmar wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:07 Forumite wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...


What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?

I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.


Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.

Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.


Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.

Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.

I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
Actually screw it.

I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.

##Unvote tnkted
##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).

I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.

So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.

##Unvote
##Vote Palmar

Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.

##unvote
##vote Mr. Wiggles
If you read, you can see that Palmar did not in fact try to save Tnkted, or at least, he did a very bad job of it. He did not adequately explain how Tnkted is town, and he did not push the idea that Tnkted was town in a convincing way. All he did, was remove the vote from Tnkted, ensuring that one of town's two extensions would be used on the worst possible day for it. He hasn't done anything to reinforce Tnkted's credibility, or to actually defend against the accusations of being scum, he just forced a no-lynch, which is anti-town by itself.
Show nested quote +
On August 26 2011 03:53 Sevryn wrote:
On August 26 2011 03:45 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
On August 26 2011 03:31 Palmar wrote:
I wanted to save him from the lynch.

That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?

You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.

I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here.
Your reasoning for why tnkted "cannot" be scum is that he posted "lololo". That's very weak evidence to call someone town such that they "cannot" be scum. The only other thing I see, is you saying "But look at how he's posting!", which isn't exactly revealing. This takes away any responsibility for a mislynch off your back, because you can point out that you thought he was town even if you vote him, while not doing much to actually defend tnkted from a lynch or convince others that he's town.

Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game.

Havn't we already established lynching the Eldritch Abomination is pro town? we get an extra day
We do get an extra day, but it is an extra day much better used later into the game. Day 1 lynches are fairly inaccurate, unless scum makes a major mistake (Like I think Palmar did), and trying to kill the EA now just means that town will be launched into Day 1-2, where it will be exactly more of the same as what we've had for the last 48 hours. We get no new information, and no new leads, because Town will want to kill EA for the extra day, but scum will want to kill EA for the town cred, meaning that all scumhunting put into finding the EA is more or less a null tell. Trying to find the EA on day 1, means that he doesn't have to pretend to hunt for actual mafia, and makes it so that the extra lynch is used on the least optimal day, where town has the least leads and information.

I'm town, but it doesn't even matter if you believe me, because:

I'm town, so I want to kill scum
If I'm EA, I want to kill mafia to buy town cred
If I'm mafia, I want to kill EA on Day 1, as outlined above

So, do you think I'm EA? Then I'm hunting scum. I know I'm town, and I'm trying to convince you of such, but it shouldn't even matter when you read my analysis, because the end goal is going to be the same. Look at it impartially, and forget that it was written by Mr. Wiggles, whom you think is EA, and then tell me what you think.

:3
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
August 31 2011 23:44 GMT
#627
I'm still heavily leaning scum on tnkted. His narrowly avoiding being lynched D1 feels off to me.
Navillus
Profile Joined February 2011
United States1188 Posts
August 31 2011 23:53 GMT
#628
could we possibly get a vote count
"TL gives excellent advice 99% of the time. The problem is no one listens to it." -Plexa
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
September 01 2011 00:29 GMT
#629
I think I'm the only one that's voted.
Wiggles may have voted for Chaos.
Life can only kill you once.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
September 01 2011 00:30 GMT
#630
Cyber and Wiggles both voted for me.
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
September 01 2011 00:34 GMT
#631
Chaos13 (2)
Cyber_Cheese
Mr. Wiggles

Sevryn (1)
tnkted

Mr. Wiggles (1)
Forumite

Eiii (1)
Jackal 58
:3
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
September 01 2011 00:40 GMT
#632
That'll teach me to read instead of thinking.
Life can only kill you once.
Sevryn
Profile Joined September 2010
698 Posts
September 01 2011 00:46 GMT
#633
Okay Ferryman got killed he was making really good cases and I think His case on Wiggles still stands I would ask people to go back and read his case and look at wiggles posting.
##vote Mr.Wiggles
Navillus
Profile Joined February 2011
United States1188 Posts
September 01 2011 01:24 GMT
#634
##Vote Mr. Wiggles
I've been going back and forth on this since ferry got killed, that plus forum's points puts him as my top vote atm.
"TL gives excellent advice 99% of the time. The problem is no one listens to it." -Plexa
tnkted
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States1359 Posts
September 01 2011 03:11 GMT
#635
Jackal, what are your thoughts on Sevryn?
'I think "tnkted" may have justified this entire thread.' - Mjolnir
Sevryn
Profile Joined September 2010
698 Posts
September 01 2011 03:26 GMT
#636
On September 01 2011 12:11 tnkted wrote:
Jackal, what are your thoughts on Sevryn?

Lemme answer that for him
"Subtle disconnects."
Erandorr
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
2283 Posts
September 01 2011 09:49 GMT
#637
jackal, why so scummy?
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
September 01 2011 11:14 GMT
#638
...alright, I haven't posted once today. Not really sure how that happened, but it's my fault and I'm going to fix it.

Unfortunately it looks like we're headed for another extension. The jeejee lynch was unamious, and given the way it was started scum probably felt like he wasn't worth saving, so I really doubt we'll be able to figure out too much by looking at that day's actions. What we do have is the whole day 1 no-lynch fiasco-- one in which immediately following the extension, wiggles added a new lynch candidate into the lynch and stuck with it until the end of the day, even when it was clear that a palmar lynch wouldn't get the support it needed to do anything except siphon votes away from other candidates.

Between his voting behavior at the end of day one and ferryman's extensive writeups on how his posting behavior indicates that he's scum, wiggles is our best lynch for today.

##vote Mr. Wiggles
:3
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 01 2011 12:04 GMT
#639
My Internet has been down due to maintenance, so I apologise for the crummy explanation on the vote on chaos, It was a place holder just in case I didn't get a chance to vote later more than anything.
I haven't got much time to properly analyse the game at the moment because I'm using a mobile device at a mates at the moment, so I'll move my vote to where it seems most wanted so we don't burn another extension.

##Unvote

##Vote MrWiggles
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
September 01 2011 13:25 GMT
#640
Thanks for the reminder to vote Hesmyrr

My top two candidates right now are tnkted and Mr. Wiggles. The majority of players are going for Wiggles, so in the interest of not having an extension/no-lynch, I will vote for him as well. Although I would prefer to see tnkted lynched today, that is not feasible at the moment.

tnkted should be lynched tomorrow for sure.

##Vote Mr. Wiggles
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