That comment was a joke because everyone kept talking about searching their name  . I do appreciate the support though!
Day 4:
Warning: Do not try what happened in day 4 at home folks.
The Day 3 lynch was huge. I wouldn't call it the turning point, but it finally gave us some crucial information to base the rest of the game off of: the jbright train, of which, 2-3 voters were mafia.
gmarshal
chaoser
cubedin
kevconsim
lastargument
Judging from how the Seraph lynch went down, at least two and at most 3 of these 5 voters were mafia. But who is what? I didn't have the time to do a full scale analysis So Foolishness and I decided to do the same trick we pulled the previous day: set some of them up for lynch, and see how everyone reacted. There were strong reasons for all of them being mafia, but they could not all be mafia, and the only way we could ascertain effectively (without pm's or indepth analysis) would be to bait them into a thread response. The reasoning for each person in my eyes was:
Chaoser- Sticks to the background despite being active, throws around a lot of doubt and pushes mafia objectives.
Cubedin- Somehow cannot form an opinion or be decisive whatsoever. Avoids fights or attention. The poster boy of WishyWashy Inc.
Kevconsim- Acts like a newbie but blue fishes in pm's like a much more experienced player (I still don't get this incongruency even after the game)
Lastargument/BloodyC0bbler- Somehow is on all the townie bandwagons, is totally failing his job as coach (if he's coaching the town), mocked my annul suggestion and pushed icemac, and is simply doing so poorly it would only make sense that he was mafia.
Gmarshal seemed highly unlikely as mafia given his day 1 play. Foolishness felt the same due to congruent PM's from him.
All the reasons seem good, don't they? But they weren't all right. When I read through day 1 again, I saw chaoser's blatant errors that made him mafia. That clue enough would be key to sort through the following day. I will cover that later. But the important thing was to not spill that information right away, but hide it and milk it to gain the most amount of knowledge on the rest of the Jbright list. This came in the form of watching Chaoser gun for LastArgument and LSB without any restraint, showing that they were clearly on opposite alignments. Had I blundered by posting analysis on Chaoser instead of Kevconsim or LastArgument right before the day started, that would never have been possible because Chaoser would've been on his guard and might try to make misdirecting plays to confuse me. I was hoping for Chaoser to comment on Kevconsim as well, but that did not happen due to the LSB/LA shenanigans. My own interpretations were only reinforced when Jackal gave me the info of exactly how LSB was innocent with a lot of pieces that fit together, like coag being a medic that saved LSB and LSB shooting bum. Either way, that was the most information that could be obtained and the more important point was to save an obvious innocent and lynch the best mafia guess we had.
How the day goes down:
1) Foolishness and I accuse Kev and LA. Foolishness dies.
2) Chaoser lambasts LA more heavily than he's done on anyone. Red alarm bells start flying off in my head. These two were not on the same alignment. Quote the post please
3) LSB claims he vigi'ed LA.
4) I pm Jackal asking to work together because Foolishness is dead and he's showed good sense on day 3. He replies by spilling the beans of everything that happened on day 4. Lucky!
5) We talk over suspects (cube kev chaoser), he originally trusted chaoser but took a look at the analysis on him. He doesn't want to stick his neck out to rescue LSB from his own lies, which is understandable. But the situation was pretty desperate.
6) After some more talking he decides that he needs to save LSB. Now I tell him to push one of them , but the initiative really rested on him because he was in the LSB group. Here's the key part: Jackal decides to gun for chaoser off of seeing a short analysis on his one bad post. That is the key decision of the game and Jackal deserves massive credit for orchestrating day 4.
+ Show Spoiler [PMs with Jackal] +Original Message From Jackal58: He has been protecting LSB since day 1. I'm not sure why but I've got the impression it has something to do with a conversation medic had with RoL. He also assumed that there was at least 3 medics in game. Still might be another one but I have no idea who it is or who he may be protecting. Show nested quote +Original Message From Ser Aspi: excellent. I got your back broski. Btw why did medic prot lsb over foolishness? I guess that explains the missing hit though: i thought it was more likely they shot foolishness twice due to the seraph lynch. Original Message From Jackal58: Well wish me luck. I'm going to start a shit storm. Original Message From Ser Aspi: No chaoser is almost 100% scum, I'm more certain about him than anyone based off of one post day 1. I also think he's probably the godfather based on his behavior and presence. He also got caught in the day 3 trap along with cubedin and kev. So that makes...chaoser, kev, cubedin, and LD? Well no need to get ahead of ourselves. I am very relieved that something is at least going in the backscenes so that when I die sensible things will still go on. (I have no idea about barundar, havent checked his posts) This is the scum post i meant btw. On February 25 2011 01:45 chaoser wrote:Man, finally all rested. I haven't fully read all of the thread but I'll get my thoughts out of the way first. Firstly, Annul: At present, annul is bad for town whether he's mafia or not...I mean there's not helping town and there's being detrimental to town. Making the thread into a heated mud slinging battle=not very good atmosphere to be catching red in. Promoting discussion is fine, promoting flaming is not. It just lets mafia blend in and take sides and have an easy way of "contributing to discussion". I know he can do better too, it's just a question of why isn't he i guess. I hate policy lynches but if it keeps going this way... I'm willing to have him as a fall back lynch if no one else comes up. That being said, icemac, what's up not analyzing? Whether it's "fluff" or not (I don't really think the topics people are discussing are fluff) there's a lot to talk about. You can talk about the situation in general (why did this convo pop up? if this is mafia talking why would they do this? etc. etc,) Or you can even explain why it's fluff. You kinda just say it's fluff and bounce. How the heck am I red? Just because I'm smart enough to take a bipartisan approach to day 1 and not listen to over analysis and red-analysis doesn't mean I'm scum playing the middle of the road. I actually use to play this way too cause I figured I needed more info before making a call, but making a call by itself is helpful for town. When we look back on past events, we can say, ah ha, this is where he stood in the situation, given what's happened so far, i think he's town/mafia/etc. It's like leaving a mark for all to see. As opposed to saying nothing about anything and then you don't leave ANY mark. How is town suppose to read you if you're just not leaving a mark? By thinking hmm why didn't he want to leave a mark...SCUMMM. See, not helpful at all. Gryffindor: I don't know if he lied or not. Maybe it was just a misunderstanding in PMs where he thought RoL/MK said something they didn't actually mean. Unless RoL says in thread he 100% lied, I'm going to read it as such. His list, I think, is just him giving into popular sentiment. I don't think it points to him as being red, more like he's seeing that it COULD be beneficial. Also, how is it that you can't correlate my idea with his cell idea? Just because we have cells scumhunting, doesn't mean we can't PM a confirmed on d2 or d3. I do not see how it is black vs white, when there is in fact a lot of room for gray area. This statement by him is pretty good, I agree that both can be combined if needed. Makes me think he's green cause he's willing to compromise instead of just toeing the line which is much easier to do as mafia than to reach across the aisle. Look at the part about annul and icemac. At this point annul was gaining steam and there was little viable alternative. So look how chaoser tries to make it look like he's part of the annul bandwagon, but at the same time discredits the lynch by making annul out to be some kind of village idiot and that he 'can do better,' and tries to suggest others with the possibility of a halfhearted 'policy lynch as a last resort'. He clearly did NOT want annul dead and was trying to disguise it. Once annul flipped red, he's totally guilty. I am guessing I will be killed tonight, as foolishness was last night. Mafia had 3 kp so the only way that makes sense is if they double hit him, which I can see happening because of his enormous threat. We definitely want to lower their member count today. I strongly suggest you guys mobilize your resources to lynch kev over lsb. Because of chaoser's stance on LA I am pretty certain LA is innocent. There are too many unexplained hits otherwise too. I can't see the mafia triple stacking foolishness lol. If lsb is innocent then LA must be innocent too. Anyways let me know what info you think I can, it should be obvious as day that im town but w/e. I will burn cubedin after the lynch is done, I didn't want to distract the town too much and probably shouldnt' have posted that on chaoser yet but I better go back it up and could use all the support i can get. Original Message From Jackal58: I just read your analysis in the thread. I think I would replace Caoser with Barundar. Otherwise I agree. And I may be dead wrong about Barundar. Take Coag off of your list. I am in another circle that is all confirmed townies. I know some things you don't. There are several things I cannot reveal but one that I can even though I said I wouldn't. The events of the last day have kind of nullified this point though. LSB is town. LSB is vigi. LSB did not shoot LA. He shot bumatlarge. With that being said LA is not a part of the confirmed group I am in. LSB believed him to be town before LA claimed to have been hit. I have no idea if LA was hit or not. I have no idea if LSB told LA to claim being hit or not. I have no idea what looney bin LSB escaped from. But he is town. And he is a vigi. He was told that if he tried to shift the lynch from LA he would be the one to replace him. He didn't believe me. So now I'm stuck watching a blue get lynched without the ability to defend him. I think any body that tries to will simply replace him. I have the rest of the day to try and convince LSB to pull his head out of his ass and tell the truth. If he does that I will back him. But I will not back him on a lie especially a lie about somebody that I still think there is a very high probability of being scum. I love conundrums. Original Message From Ser Aspi:
with foolishness dead there aren't many obvious innocents with heads on their shoulders left. You are one of the them. Thus I propose we work together til we get offed (i doubt ill live past tonight).
I don't want to divert too much attention in the thread but here's how I see it:
chaoser - made a 100% guilt post during the first lynch where he didn't want to look bad by not voting annul but was clearly trying to not get him lynched
kevconsim - duh
cubedin - posts a lot but never has a real opinion about anything. all his posts can be condensed to 'I DONT KNOW AND CANT TAKE A STANCE'
coagulation - seems like he posts a lot but has never committed himself to anything and doesnt seem to care about anything and just sits there. I need to reread his posts to see for sure though.
Given the general stupidity we need to push pretty hard probably. A lot of my logic is based off of 'these guys are probably scum so who they push is innocent' but that worked well to kill Seraph so I think it should stick.
I'll followup with full analysis tomorrow.
A note on the 'bait and switch:'
If LA is actually veteran then town cannot tell if LSB is mafia or vigi because mafia could've doublestacked foolishness or shot LA and we cannot tell the difference. If LSB is mafia, we cannot tell if LA is veteran or mafia, but it still makes more sense to kill LSB first because it is the only way the remaining player can be confirmed innocent. Regardless, fitting Chaoser's day 1 guilt and Jackal's information together meant that Chaoser + cubed/kev (1 or both) were mafia, and LA/LSB were innocent. But we had a dual problem here. First, Chaoser is not under any scrutiny. Jackal, to his immense credit, pushed Chaoser instead of kev.
This lynch so easily could've went down as LSB vs some other townie (kev for example). Then we would've had to deal with massive problems on day 5 and likely would have lost the game. It was likely that we could get enough support to ricochet the vote off of LSB, but it would all be in vain if we didn't lynch a mafia. Only lynching a mafia would clear the town group and myself, make the atmosphere town favored (i.e. reduce mafia interference), and give us solid direction to go on in the future.
Another way to look at it:
Think of how utterly absurd all this is. We have LSB being outted as a total liar by someone who 100% believes him because another person claims he medic protected him and they all knew about LSB's pre-called hit. Note that LSB was lying about his hit too. Now ask yourself the question, would the mafia voluntarily do this, particularly in such a haphazard fashion? The very same mafia, whose goal is to blend in and not attract attention? No, of course not! What purpose would pulling a grandstand stunt serve for them? Who is more likely to do something like that? A crazed townie, or mafia? The former of course.
In essence, you could discredit the "LSB is mafia" case solely due to how utterly bad his behavior and defense was. Beyond a certain level of suspicion, you can actually clear people because they are "too suspicious." This is of course a heuristic, and thus won't be 100% correct, but its held true an astonishing amount of the time, and is one of Qatol's favorite analysis techniques.
Chaoser
Now, why Chaoser must be mafia. I cut out all the fluff out of my accusation post.
On March 06 2011 06:06 Ser Aspi wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2011 01:45 chaoser wrote:Man, finally all rested. I haven't fully read all of the thread but I'll get my thoughts out of the way first. Firstly, Annul: At present, annul is bad for town whether he's mafia or not...I mean there's not helping town and there's being detrimental to town. Making the thread into a heated mud slinging battle=not very good atmosphere to be catching red in. Promoting discussion is fine, promoting flaming is not. It just lets mafia blend in and take sides and have an easy way of "contributing to discussion". I know he can do better too, it's just a question of why isn't he i guess. I hate policy lynches but if it keeps going this way... I'm willing to have him as a fall back lynch if no one else comes up. That being said, icemac, what's up not analyzing? Whether it's "fluff" or not (I don't really think the topics people are discussing are fluff) there's a lot to talk about. You can talk about the situation in general (why did this convo pop up? if this is mafia talking why would they do this? etc. etc,) Or you can even explain why it's fluff. You kinda just say it's fluff and bounce. How the heck am I red? Just because I'm smart enough to take a bipartisan approach to day 1 and not listen to over analysis and red-analysis doesn't mean I'm scum playing the middle of the road. I actually use to play this way too cause I figured I needed more info before making a call, but making a call by itself is helpful for town. When we look back on past events, we can say, ah ha, this is where he stood in the situation, given what's happened so far, i think he's town/mafia/etc. It's like leaving a mark for all to see. As opposed to saying nothing about anything and then you don't leave ANY mark. How is town suppose to read you if you're just not leaving a mark? By thinking hmm why didn't he want to leave a mark...SCUMMM. See, not helpful at all. Gryffindor: I don't know if he lied or not. Maybe it was just a misunderstanding in PMs where he thought RoL/MK said something they didn't actually mean. Unless RoL says in thread he 100% lied, I'm going to read it as such. His list, I think, is just him giving into popular sentiment. I don't think it points to him as being red, more like he's seeing that it COULD be beneficial. Also, how is it that you can't correlate my idea with his cell idea? Just because we have cells scumhunting, doesn't mean we can't PM a confirmed on d2 or d3. I do not see how it is black vs white, when there is in fact a lot of room for gray area. This statement by him is pretty good, I agree that both can be combined if needed. Makes me think he's green cause he's willing to compromise instead of just toeing the line which is much easier to do as mafia than to reach across the aisle. This was made when the annul lynch was gaining a little steam but not nearly decisive. The guilty part is you trying to subtly deflect the annul lynch, while hiding that you are trying to do that. This isn't " i dont think annul is a good lynch," which anyone mafia or town could say. This is "i secretly dont want to lynch annul but i dont want you to know that so im going to but maybe just maybe we can have him as a fallback option aka if my team cant get another suspect up there." You try to dodge or downplay the real accusations against annul and insist "he can do better" while still making it look like you are part of the good guy bandwagon while being prepared to hop off as soon as another candidate got some votes. I don't need to read any other posts by you. No townie could possibly make this post. I can predict the future. You are going to doublestack me tonight and I will live anyway. Then your team will lose.
I think I adequately explained this ingame but if you have any questions about why this makes a certain lynch, feel free to ask. Regardless, this is something that when you see, you should be thinking "DIE!!" without any hesitation.
After looking at his posting history postgame, Chaoser had a pretty clear agenda of pushing suspicion and doubt everywhere, particularly with a giant post on the roleblock claims day 3. That was just more fuel to the fire, but really irrelevant with the above post. And keep in mind the original post I jumped at day 1 was almost enough of an error to lynch him then and there:
On February 23 2011 12:40 chaoser wrote:
Ok, so like Gmarshal said, we shouldn't depend on blues this game. Especially since RoL specifically said this game was to punish us for what happened in Salam. At the same thing, I don't think the mafia powers are all THAT powerful. Let them frame away, that's one less death to worry about. PMs are allowed but PLEASE don't just give out crazy info in them (roleclaim, etc.). The point of town is not to have 1 leader controlling everything but small circles that are separated so that if one goes down, the others can still operate. Let's all work together and not let a few players handle all the work (which always seems to happen). This means contributing pleaseee.
The doublestack 'premonition' was simply to mess with the mafia and make them a little more apprehensive about hitting me or even doublestack me. Such moves need to be timed well but can offer some nice bonuses (i think it made them nervous about it judging from their QT) for no harm.
Day 5:
The problems of day 5 all rested on the Gryff/BM bandwagon getting started way too fast. One of the difficulties of controlling the town is that it has a lot of inertia, so once the mood started going down the 'gryffindor is mafia' track, it was divert it. This limited our counterlynch possibilities drastically. Had I been able to act from the start when the town had a clean slate of mind, it would've been possible to pursue other objectives, ala LD or Cubedin. Thus, the only choices were kevconsim and ohn, two suspicious but not certain people who might be the last mafia. They weren't ideal, because we wanted to nail the godfather or hit more likely mafia and drop KP, but they were the best of the uncertains.
By this point, LD was clearly mafia given him drifting off into the abyss and not posting or helping at all now that suspicion was off him. Jackal and I discussed this, but as Jackal was very angry at BM and wanted him dead, and BM was already near death anyways, he decided to hope LD would get modkilled which looked like it might happen. In retrospect, we should have just ignored modkill possibilities and killed LD. We got greedy trying to do a 2 for 1 and I didn't feel I could force a cubedin lynch through because I needed the town circle's support to do so. At the time, LSB either supported cubedin or was trying to mess with the mafia, and I thought it was the former. Ultimately, it was a choice of going with the lesser of two evils. Gryff was clearly innocent due to a simple analysis of Bill Murray's posting history, so that was a dead lynch. It was only further confirmed by how easily BM was getting bandwagoned, which had never happened with any other mafia. There was a lot of struggling whenever a mafia was lynched.
In addition, I screwed up here and forgot the reasoning I used to clear Barundar on Day 1/2, but thankfully due to the modkill, that was one less questionable character to worry about. It's really easy to forget observations you notice early on, which is why it's so important to carefully write down your noteworthy ideas as soon as they happen. I forgot to do so this game and could've paid a far worse price. With BM and ohn out of the way, the path to the rest of the mafia was laid clear. So even though the day didn't go so well, there was nowhere the mafia had left to hide.
Days 6/7: LD and Cubedin.
I don't have too much to add here onto my analyses so I'll just copy paste and make a few quick remarks. Ask questions if there's something you don't quite get though.
On March 10 2011 11:32 Ser Aspi wrote:DA PLANDon't dispute. Don't argue. Don't whine. Just follow it. Innocent List:
Ser Aspi (duh)
Jackal
Coag
LSBLunardestiny Guaranteed scum Cubedin - a number of posts make him scum
kevconsim - acts like a noob but fished for a blue. Is that worthy of being scum? Not sure anymore One or both are guaranteed scum. If one of lunar or cubedin are gf then kev is highly likely. But kev is not the gf lol so if both the first two are red but not gf then kev is clean. Variables:
gmarshal - is either godlike scum or manipulated townie. im voting for latter, but former is possible as he's been on the wrong lynch EVERY SINGLE TIME.
why - is innocent if cubedin is scum. dont know otherwise.
deconduo- no idea, havent read his posts
Lunardestiny is getting lynched tomorrow, absolutely no question. Three times he has posted once in a day voting himself, twice right before the buzzer. He is actively lurking and not helping the town whatsoever. He cannot not be mafia. There is still foolishness's damning case agaisnt him too. Now once he's dead, we have to deal with the jbright train, which is. GMarshal ? chaoserCubEdIn ? kevconsim ? LastArgument
JBrightcubedin is a much better lynch than kev, though kev is possible. The thing with kev is it seems hes being TOO obvious as mafia. Blind bandwagon votes without reasons etc. cubedin on the other hand is trying to hide his scumminess. Last mafia I have no clue on tbh. I havent really looked at any of them closely, though jackal and i are inclined to say gmarshal is just a manipulated green. votes: + Show Spoiler [CLICK THIS Votes of everyone] +
LunarDestiny:
icemac
lunardestiny
seraph
lunardestiny
lunardestiny
LOL
Cubedin
annul (once it was clearly over)
icemac
jbright
Chaoser
kevconsim
annul (last vote when it was clearly over)
icemac
jbright
lsb -> chaoser bandwagon
gmarshal
bum
jbright
jbright
ohn
why
icemac
LD
seraph
lsb -> chaoser bandwagon
wants to kill cubedin multiple times but nobody supports his vote
Deconduo:
annul
LSB
LSB
LSB -> chaoser bandwagon
lol?
Day 5 lynch is irrelevant as no mafia were up for lynch.
Plan is: 1 Lynch LD Tomorrow 2. Lynch Cubedin Day after Tomorrow If both are red and one is gf, lynch kevconsim If both are red but neither is gf, lynch one of gmarshal/deconduo Both are red Analysis on LD and Cubedin coming
On March 10 2011 11:33 Ser Aspi wrote:Why LD?Three reasons: 1 Foolishness's analysis + Show Spoiler [ANALYSIS READ] +On February 28 2011 09:10 Foolishness wrote:The LSB - Barundar debate is living proof that there are some people in a mafia game who you try to ignore as much as possible. I am going to make a case right here that we choose to ignore these two buffoons and move on to more important matters. At one point or another I caught both these players saying "lynch the other, then lynch me if they turn up green". DO NOT BE DISTRACTED BY ARGUMENTS SUCH AS THESE! Let's say we take their advice, and lynch one today. They flip green (which is most likely). What's going to happen is we spend the entire next day debating to lynch the other and some other random inactive (probably icemac, the poor guy). Most likely, the other of LSB/Barundar will get lynched. End result of all this is probably we lynched two greens AND we wasted two days and nights analyzing at most 3 people. That time could have been spent taking a more thorough analysis of other players in the game. Not to mention by the time the next day roles around there will be about 4-5 more townies dead from night kills. "But Foolishness, what if (insert LSB or Barundar) is actually mafia! Then we killed a mafia!" Cool, that's really wonderful, but we still wasted two days not analyzing anyone else. Not to mention the ONLY people that want to kill LSB or Barundar are: LSB and Barundar. A quick scan tells me anyone else voting for one or the other is doing it out of policy "Wow (insert LSB or Barundar), I never looked at it that way before! It's so obvious that (insert whoever you didn't insert above) is mafia!" Yeah great job thinking for yourself there; policy lynches are totally the way to play mafia. Let's take a step back and analyze the situation as a whole. LSB and Barundar call each other, both are confident enough to say "if he flips green lynch me next". Nothing much to say here. What's interesting is we have people on both sides of the argument saying "LSB/Barundar is totally acting in their norm...remember this other game where they did exactly that as a town?" That strikes me as very interesting because it means someone actually did their homework and more obviously, they are probably both town. The voting thread is even more proof that nobody really wants to kill them besides themselves, as we got people voting for gryffindor and icemac. This also seems more out of policy than actual analysis, as people are basically summing up their vote as "well, I'm not comfortable with killing LSB or Barundar, so I'll just vote this other guy who has been under suspicion all game". Also voting out of policy without providing credible evidence. (Yes people, policy lynches are bad) If LSB and Barundar are not acting out of their norm then who is? LunarDestiny and Seraph. I can easily show it just by looking at their number of posts. LunarDestiny: Number of posts before game starts: 12 Number of posts after game starts (up until now): 18 Seraph: Number of posts before game starts: 10 Number of posts after game starts (up until now): 13 For this, I will focus on LunarDestiny, we can deal with Seraph later. ##Vote LunarDestinyIn Mafia XXXV LunarDestiny had 29 posts from start of the game until the end of day two. That's a 50% increase from this game. Sure numbers are kinda meaningless, but it's interesting how much posting he was doing pre game then as soon as the game starts he shuts up. There's definitely something going on with him. Additional information, as it was brought up not too long ago, at one point yesterday the vote was Annul 6, icemac 5. It was here that I decided I wanted to vote for annul to pressure him more, because I thought he would easily crack and show himself as mafia (turns out he did right before day was over). It's usually my policy to lynch inactives first day, so I felt a bit awkward about voting for him because I hate voting active players the first day or two. I sent a PM to LunarDestiny, explaining this and asking if he would vote annul. His response (I don't want to take up space posting the actual PMs, just PM me if you don't believe me): "I spent more of my posts talking about how I hate bandwagon... However, I can help call Annul out by posting how he is playing like he was in XXXV where his postings are similar since they are not logical." That's a legitimate response upon first inspection. But here's a collection of posts LunarDestiny made that regards bandwagoning: Show nested quote +On February 23 2011 15:38 LunarDestiny wrote:
Voting inactives are bad, but there are people who will only reply if their names pop up. I understand the game just started, but I think pressure voting to get someone start talking is good.
What's bad is that if the person don't respond and bandwagon on that person happens. Show nested quote +On February 23 2011 16:52 LunarDestiny wrote:@gryffindor Ser Aspi attempted to make a well formulated case after putting an FoS out on me. I'm not mafia, so if he was mafia, I would expect him to have done that differently. It could be WIFOM off of an associative tell, but I'm not sure if he's good enough to do that. Given that I doubt he wasn't genuine, and I like that he is attempting to create a bandwagon, I'm comfortable with him in my town category. I didn't want to just put "town", as it can be misleading. People will be moving up and down on my list as their play improves/degrades. You are saying that Ser Aspi read you as mafia and tried to convince town and not sucessful in doing do. While I agree that mafia won't recklessly risk themselves at leading lynches, I believe that they want to form a quick bandwagon on town. But you also said Ser Aspi tried to create a bandwagon which is what mafia wants to do. That should be a scum tell instead of a defense why he is town. If I missed one let me know, but it's clear there's very little indication of "I hate bandwagons!" Of course there's a little indication of this as he says it's a mafia move to ignite a bandwagon, but that's it. Of course what I'm getting at is that LunarDestiny wanted to dodge voting annul. If he didn't want to help me why not just say "i don't believe annul is mafia, let's kill icemac"? Maybe he's intimidated by me, or maybe he's mafia. (He did vote for icemac yesterday, which is kinda a bandwagon in itself, just not as big as the annul one). He tells me in the PM he will help me by calling him out in the thread. Let's look at some of his posts which are supposed to help me: Show nested quote +On February 24 2011 14:05 LunarDestiny wrote:On February 24 2011 13:03 annul wrote:
##unvote
##vote gmarshal
better than chaoser atm I want to ask you for the reasons why you switched your vote. And why do you think Gmarshall is a better lynch than Chaoser. This was his post after he sent me the PM. As we can see, he did try to pressure annul, but not in the way he said he would. Take a look at some of his later posts: Show nested quote +On February 25 2011 06:34 LunarDestiny wrote:
I read about the last three pages and found not very strong reasons that Annul is scum.
I don't see much scum tell in his vote switch from Chaoser to Gmarshall. Annul did justify his vote on Gmarshall on why his plan is bad.
Another thing people keep mentioning is the aggressiveness how Annul is playing which looks like how he played in XXXV where he was scum. The difference is there he was accusing LSB being scum with flawed reasons. This game, he actually justified his vote and did provide reasons unlike the old "LSB postings are spams and have few contributions."
I played with Annul many times before and it seems that he is always aggressive on day1.
XXXV: Accused LSB mafia because he spams and don't contribute much.
Merc Mafia: Claimed medic to me (day vig) and planned to have 100% town victory.
Survivor Mafia (ongoing): After the quick 3 people alliance, he rallied and formed the counter 5 people alliance to take control of the game.
This game compared to other games I played with Annul, I consider that he is playing less aggressive. Show nested quote +On February 25 2011 07:58 LunarDestiny wrote:LSB: Storytime! Why Annul was an easy read in XXXV
1) He mad up stuff and pushed stuff that didn't exist
Check, this game he's pushing GMarshal, saying GMarshal is clear mafia, although there is literally nothing in his accusation
2) Besides responses, he posted nothing else
Look at Annul's posts. How many of his posts deal with things other than Gmarshal or defending himself? I can't find any. Looked over Annul's posts: 1) He posts are generally short and don't have much content to them. I do find Annul saying Gmarshall is mafia based only on his circle thing is not convincing. 2) This is the part I disagree. Annul did what most people will do in this situation. He attacked someone whom he believe is mafia and defended himself when he was in huge danger of being lynched. If he didn't go after someone, ok... since not everyone got a mafia read on day1. And his defense on himself is normal behavior. To determine if he is really mafia, you have to look at the time when he felt pressured and tried to redirect the lynch to another person (Gmarshall in this case) and if there are any support from others. People did pointed out Gmarshall's circle thing is a horrible idea but no one voted for him after Annul's switch. Easily seen how he contradicts what he told me in PM. He wanted to "help" me so that I wouldn't become suspicious of him, yet he spends time half ass defending annul. I say half ass because of his reluctance to take an affirmative stance on the situation. He obviously voted for icemac, and made posts such as these: Show nested quote +On February 25 2011 08:09 LunarDestiny wrote:
ANNUL, can you response to some critical posts toward you and don't use one liner responses because one liner responses are hard to read alignment. Show nested quote +On February 25 2011 10:25 LunarDestiny wrote:
Annul, if you don't do anything people will not switch vote. This play style of yours is getting you lynched. While I still believe your aggressiveness is lower compared to other games, what makes you an easy lynch is that you don't reply with logical responses. I hope that is not what mafia is going for.
Also, town players roleclaim regardless when they are getting lynched. That "you'll know soon after" is not general town play.
Can you at least tell us what you observed?
Well, time to vote...
Icemac, you took a huge dive. Care to explained your voting or what you see on the thread? These posts indicate him saying "hey annul you're going to die unless you do something" and above his posts are saying "guys, we don't have convincing evidence to kill annul, he's not acting that different from his past games". The most important thing to take away from this situation is his lack to take an affirmative stance. On one hand you read this and think, "nah he couldn't be mafia with annul look at him try to tell annul to change his attitude so he doesn't die", and on the other hand you read his above posts and say "he could be mafia with annul because he tried to defend him". LunarDestiny does not want to take sides so he cannot be held accountable later. SUMMARY: LunarDestiny gave me an inaccurate PM, and then went back on his word on pressuring annul. He did not take an affirmative stance on what he thought about annul and voted for icemac. 2 Foolishness's warning to me (in pm) Show nested quote +If LD is mafia I'm fairly confident he's going to go mia if we lay off him the next day or two. AND LOOK WHAT HAPPENED? We laid off LD because Foolishness wanted to see how LD would react, and LD fell right into Foolishness's trap. Why? Cause he be scum yo. 3 LD's activity: LunarDestiny: Number of posts before game starts: 12 Number of posts after game starts (up until now): 18 Seraph: Number of posts before game starts: 10 Number of posts after game starts (up until now): 13 Guess what? Seraph was mafia. Well LD is too. What's more damning is LD's activity post accusation. What is it you ask? Why, 0. No activity whatsoever. He has made 3 posts to make 3 votes. DIE!!! 4 His most important contribution is disputing semantics in day 1, putting doubt on gryff, and diverting attention off the annul lynch. Gee I wonder why. 5 Actually I just caught this now. He committed the same blunder as chaoser in defending annul. Trying to subtly brush it aside without appearing too pro-annul. In other words, scum trying to hide their true intentions. + Show Spoiler [Scum posts] +On February 25 2011 06:34 LunarDestiny wrote:
I read about the last three pages and found not very strong reasons that Annul is scum.
I don't see much scum tell in his vote switch from Chaoser to Gmarshall. Annul did justify his vote on Gmarshall on why his plan is bad.
Another thing people keep mentioning is the aggressiveness how Annul is playing which looks like how he played in XXXV where he was scum. The difference is there he was accusing LSB being scum with flawed reasons. This game, he actually justified his vote and did provide reasons unlike the old "LSB postings are spams and have few contributions."
I played with Annul many times before and it seems that he is always aggressive on day1.
XXXV: Accused LSB mafia because he spams and don't contribute much.
Merc Mafia: Claimed medic to me (day vig) and planned to have 100% town victory.
Survivor Mafia (ongoing): After the quick 3 people alliance, he rallied and formed the counter 5 people alliance to take control of the game.
This game compared to other games I played with Annul, I consider that he is playing less aggressive. On February 25 2011 10:25 LunarDestiny wrote:
Annul, if you don't do anything people will not switch vote. This play style of yours is getting you lynched. While I still believe your aggressiveness is lower compared to other games, what makes you an easy lynch is that you don't reply with logical responses. I hope that is not what mafia is going for.
Also, town players roleclaim regardless when they are getting lynched. That "you'll know soon after" is not general town play.
Can you at least tell us what you observed?
Well, time to vote...
Icemac, you took a huge dive. Care to explained your voting or what you see on the thread? On February 25 2011 07:58 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +LSB: Storytime! Why Annul was an easy read in XXXV
1) He mad up stuff and pushed stuff that didn't exist
Check, this game he's pushing GMarshal, saying GMarshal is clear mafia, although there is literally nothing in his accusation
2) Besides responses, he posted nothing else
Look at Annul's posts. How many of his posts deal with things other than Gmarshal or defending himself? I can't find any. Looked over Annul's posts: 1) He posts are generally short and don't have much content to them. I do find Annul saying Gmarshall is mafia based only on his circle thing is not convincing. 2) This is the part I disagree. Annul did what most people will do in this situation. He attacked someone whom he believe is mafia and defended himself when he was in huge danger of being lynched. If he didn't go after someone, ok... since not everyone got a mafia read on day1. And his defense on himself is normal behavior. To determine if he is really mafia, you have to look at the time when he felt pressured and tried to redirect the lynch to another person (Gmarshall in this case) and if there are any support from others. People did pointed out Gmarshall's circle thing is a horrible idea but no one voted for him after Annul's switch. To sum up, LD is hiding something, just like Seraph. It doesn't get simpler than this folks. Chaoser required some stellar analysis because he played quite well and didn't make many blunders. This is simply obvious. Rememeber LD was to be our lynch for today except he was looking to be modkilled and we were hoping he would. He didn't, because he's a lurking mafia who has no inclination to help the town at all and is laughing in our faces. Foolishness was right about Seraph, he was right about LD. He even laid a trap to make sure, and LD darn well fell for it.
On March 10 2011 11:34 Ser Aspi wrote:Why Cubedin?
I've thought cubedin was mafia ever since the jbright lynch, however I haven't pushed him because chaoser was first priority as I thought the was godfather and yesterday LSB backed cubedin and I can't outshout LSB so I went for the easy inactive lynch as gryff was clearly innocent. Well screw that, Cubedin is dying after LD dies. It's too late to hold back anything. The town cannot afford mislynches anymore. Rereading the posts again makes me even more certain than I was at the end of day 3. Just like I said with chaoser, Cubedin MUST BE MAFIA.Why? Because he is hiding something. This is not exemplified as much by a specific post as by his entire posting history. He is scared, no, terrified, and his most important goal is not to stand out. + Show Spoiler [Posts READ] +*note the posts are not in chronological order sorry! It doesn't really matter though anyways, as they are just selections to show his pattern in posting*On March 02 2011 03:04 CubEdIn wrote:
I'm pretty ok with lynching LD, because of the way he played Mafia XXXVI.
I watched him from a scum perspective, and he was a bit of a thorn in our pawn.
This game, however, I barely noticed him.
Still, I expected that if he were scum, he would have become more active once the FoS was pointing at him, but he hasn't, so I'm not completely dismissing the possibility that he's simply being less active for this one.
But yeah I do agree with one thing wholeheartedly: get the lurkers to talk.
Someone in PM told me that people might be lurking due to the fact that they're medics or such and don't want to be sticking out, but mafia already knows who's mafia, so the green/blue lurkers WILL stick out like a sore thumb to them, especially if they don't start talking and town doesn't cast any blame on them. See Mafia XXXVI's Mr.Wiggles and BrownBear for example. At the end of the game I had to guess who medic was, and I picked one of these two. BB was medic and Wiggles was Mason. And it was obvious because town was protecting them. So, yeah, bottom line is, get everyone to talk.
Let's start with... ohN. Are you even part of this game? On February 24 2011 19:14 CubEdIn wrote:Ok ok. I had a bit of time to go through the thread, and most likely I will be a bit more free at work today so hopefully I'll contribute more. But this is what I got so far: 1. Icemac vs Gmarshall. I don't think either of them is scum, and here is why: Gmarshall did play a bit different in Mafia 36, but the reason for that was, he was picked Bodyguard on day one. Which means that his place was safe, at least for the first few days. Nobdy was going to lynch him, even if several people would FoS him, which gives one a nice, safe place in the game. In this game, however, he does not have that advantage, so I think it's somewhat normal that he's a bit more touchy, a bit more aggressive, but at least he's trying to provide decent information and come up with a somewhat-well-though-out-plan. Basically, the only problem with his plan is that a bunch of the cells could be mafia-infested, but that can also work to town's advantage if the greens in the circle can figure out that the red is trying to play them. As far as nobody claims early, it should be ok, IMO. Besides, like LSB said, you can't really STOP any kind of town circle as long as PMs are allowed, so there's no reason I can think of to try to stop town this. At best, this is a more "imposed" cell that any player can embrace or ignore. I don't think it can be considered scummish. Icemac, on the other hand, is a smurf, so I can't know what he's usually like, but I'm guessing that he played with us before, and that's why he's being overly aggressive in some instances. I don't think that makes him scum though, especially if he played in Mafia 36 and he's got an idea about what GM "should play like", and isn't. If he didn't play with us before, he might just be a tad on the aggressive side by nature. I don't see why this is considered a bad thing, and I don't see why it's a reason to vote for him. To me, most of the things he said come out as being townish. Either way, it's not really a reason go wagon him no matter how you look at it, and I'm quite suspicious of the players that ganged him so fast. 2. LSB vs. Annul These are both quite experienced players, so I don't think you could get a "read" out of either of them. But it is reminiscent of the way LSB started out Harry Potter Mafia (when we were mafia together), and he was attacking RoL all over. Which lead to both of them being lynched and clearing up DrH of accusation for quite some time. Now I'm not saying LSB is doing this, I'm saying that EITHER of them could be doing this. Or they can both be town or both mafias. I know this is inconclusive, but my "bottom line" would be... don't go for either of them until there's further proof. If you don't know what I'm talking about, go read through the first two days of HP mafia. 3. Ser Aspi This is the most suspicious player to me so far, mostly based on one post: Show nested quote +On February 24 2011 12:48 Ser Aspi wrote:On February 24 2011 12:16 annul wrote:
oh hey another smurf
why the fuck does everyone smurf? why are you all afraid of your skill? cute way to sidetrack the debate off your scummy play. "HE POSTED LOGIC SMURFFFFF AHHHHH IGNORE ME" Sorry if I forgot about tl mafia and been busy playing at epicmafia and mafiascum for the past year. Naturally you don't actually respond to what I said. Even more interesting, a smurf would be someone more knowledgeable than a new player. For you to think that I am a smurf immediately means that you felt what I said had merit. Thus that means you know better, which means you are scum bullshiting. vote## AnnulIm gonna knock you off your broomstick boy This is weird, really weird. Mostly because it came RIGHT after LSB made some decent points against Annul. If he wanted to vote for Annul he'd have had a lot of damn good reasons by just "believing" LSB's analysis. But instead he goes and basically OMGUS-votes Annul. Why on earth would you do something like that? Now, I'm not saying he's not right about the smurf/experienced thing on Annul, but he basically voted for him because Annul pointed him out for being a smurf, and he openly admitted that. That's most fishy to me, out of everything I read so far. The second suspect would be Jackal, but I doubt it's a good idea to lynch him over just two posts (like Ser Aspi too, actually). I don't find it odd that he's not being overly aggressive as usual, because it's very early in the game, but I do find it odd that he made the remark about the PM. That does seem a bit off-character. That being said, I don't have any idea of who to vote for actually, at least not yet. But I do know one thing: If Annul and/or LSB are not scum, they'll probably be taken out pretty early in the game, so I don't think it's smart for town to lynch either of them (especially not LSB, since he seems to be a target for Mafia early on when he's red, and if he IS mafia, then he has a pretty pro-town way of playing it, so I think it's safe either way). On February 25 2011 06:33 CubEdIn wrote:I find it very scummy that someone gets to tell me that I have to change my vote to one of the two (Granted, I didn't vote yet, but let's assume I had my vote on Ser Aspi). Who are you (Gryff) to tell me I have to change my vote? It's a game. It's definitely not LYLO. I can vote whoeverthehell I want. You disagree? Then try to get my lynch afterwards, but don't try and influence the vote while it's going on without any serious reason. You think it's scummy that some people can have their own opinion that's not similar to what everyone else says? How so? Is it not scummier to band wagon someone? That being said, I am going to bandwagon! But not because I don't have the balls to stick to my own choice, but because I found annul's downward spiral to be quite scummy. He seemed OK at first but then started to respond aggressively to the posts, which is exactly what I do when I'm scum. I still think that it's a bad idea overall to lynch someone with decent experience on day 1. I would much rather have annul as a day 2 lynch or so, but I already explained why I really doubt Icemac is town, and his posts made me think so even more. Also, RoL's intervention made me think that gryff (my 2nd in line choice, after S.A.) is town, because if he'd be mafia, the mod-intervention would be imba. And I know from when I was mafia in 36 that the mods posting in the thread is 90% to stop the town from taking the fast train to nowhere. That being said, I sure hope LSB is not wrong about this  ##Vote Annul On February 28 2011 04:46 CubEdIn wrote:Hi again peoples. Here's a crappy cell-phone pic of yesterday! + Show Spoiler +I GOT TO SEE SNOW! ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/BSyWf.jpg) Now, to the issues at hand. Obviously, the most pressing issue is LSB vs Barundar. LSB:Mostly, the most trouble I have with this is that, if Barundar is right, we have to kill someone who really pushed a red on day 1. That's all. We shouldn't really do this. Here is why: - If LSB is town, and he's as good as people say he is, then he will be targeted by mafia, sooner or later. - If LSB is red, he already outed a team-mate. If mafia is as ballsy as Barundar says, then they might do something equally strange in order to clear LSB. In which case, it spells good for town. So I have no idea why so many people are going along with this. At least give LSB one-two more days and see how the game goes. You can't possibly want one of the more experienced players to die, after pushing a red, based entirely on "he could have played this exactly the same if he was red". True, but that's not a convincing argument. Not for me anyway. There are just two things that make me not dismiss this completely: 1. Harry Potter Mafia, when LSB seemed very, very pro-town in the thread, and he was scum. It can be said that he was Snape so he might have known he was ultimately town-aligned, but at the time he was in our scum team, yet he played very pro-town in the thread (or at least make it seem that way). This could be a more advanced version of that. 2. The "once he flips red" made it seem extremely confident. Which is a bit weird since it was day one. I don't think it's healthy for anyone to be that confident in day 1. Barundar:I don't know if Barundar is red or town, but I honestly don't think it is something that mafia would do. Let's think for a second here, take what Barundar said: The thing is, when someone plays as mafia, it’s hard to do analysis because you know that the person who you are doing analysis is town, so you have to make up stuff.It's kinda hard to make up so much stuff just to try and sink LSB, and even if you do (say, Barundar is red and LSB is town), then it doesn't make any sense because Barundar would die next night for sure, so it would basically be two mafia down just to kill LSB. So if he is red (and they want LSB dead), it's just a really bad move, because once LSB flips town, he's dead. If he's town, it's an even worse move, because if LSB is town, then Barundar will most likely get lynched as well, and you will have wasted two lynches, and two of the better players and get absolutely nowhere. So here's what I'm saying: 1. Think really well about who to vote for. 2. FoS on those who voted on LSB with saying "oh wow that was a good analysis" but didn't really bother to THINK about it and the other possiblities and the outcomes. I'm sure there's at least a few mafia among them who were oh-so-glad an experienced townie is being targeted.Here are a few examples: Show nested quote +On February 28 2011 00:23 chaoser wrote:
Epic post dude....I'mma put my vote on him cause there's no fucking way mafia would spend that much time crafting a post like that spanning 3 parts...
Vote: LSB Yeah, that's a good freaking reason. Why would you bother thinking for yourself when someone posted a 3-part-post? No mafia writes that much! Show nested quote +On February 28 2011 00:51 OriginalName wrote:
I don't think mafia is beyond bussing d1 at all and I'm not prepared to let them succed for it HOWEVER we have to realize that if we get this wrong we are clearly on the wrong track and.
Mafia probably just got some lucky snipes
Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players
If anything I think the bus was instigated by the random vote on annul about mid way through d1
I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plaisable
Therefore
##Vote LSB This seems scummiest to me: "mafia probably just got some lucky snipes" - something of a 'reverse-gloating', being happy with the kills but trying to look very pro-town by saying almost nothing. "Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players" - umm, yeah, we can tell that based on... ummm.... ?! slip?! "I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plausible" - i like the risk of killing one of the best town players on the 50-50% he's red. (I'm saying 50-50 because he said it's "plausible", not likely or anything else) Of course, my whole theory tumbles if LSB is indeed red. But we are basing this solely on the idea that the mafia team pushed Annul to a lynch on day one, which is a massively ballsy thing to do. I'm not saying LSB is town, but at least give it more time to develop, just don't claim to him or whatever if you don't trust him.
As for Jackal, I didn't think he was scum, and I wanted to post a few bits based on Mafia 36 that made me think it was unlikely that he is red, but then he gave up on Gryph and voted LSB based on the fact that it's either him or Barundar, again, being certain that one of them is red, which no player should do so early in the game. That's about enough for now, as I still want to look over the posts and see if I can find someone worthy of my vote. But unless something really scummy pops up, it's definitely not gonna be LSB or Barundar. Not this time band-wagon-man! On February 28 2011 08:02 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2011 06:02 Jackal58 wrote:First off. kevconsim - I'm flattered that you think highly enough of me to put me in your sig. Thank you. You must work on Madison Ave. + Show Spoiler +On February 28 2011 04:46 CubEdIn wrote:Hi again peoples. Here's a crappy cell-phone pic of yesterday! + Show Spoiler +I GOT TO SEE SNOW! Now, to the issues at hand. Obviously, the most pressing issue is LSB vs Barundar. LSB:Mostly, the most trouble I have with this is that, if Barundar is right, we have to kill someone who really pushed a red on day 1. That's all. We shouldn't really do this. Here is why: - If LSB is town, and he's as good as people say he is, then he will be targeted by mafia, sooner or later. - If LSB is red, he already outed a team-mate. If mafia is as ballsy as Barundar says, then they might do something equally strange in order to clear LSB. In which case, it spells good for town. So I have no idea why so many people are going along with this. At least give LSB one-two more days and see how the game goes. You can't possibly want one of the more experienced players to die, after pushing a red, based entirely on "he could have played this exactly the same if he was red". True, but that's not a convincing argument. Not for me anyway. There are just two things that make me not dismiss this completely: 1. Harry Potter Mafia, when LSB seemed very, very pro-town in the thread, and he was scum. It can be said that he was Snape so he might have known he was ultimately town-aligned, but at the time he was in our scum team, yet he played very pro-town in the thread (or at least make it seem that way). This could be a more advanced version of that. 2. The "once he flips red" made it seem extremely confident. Which is a bit weird since it was day one. I don't think it's healthy for anyone to be that confident in day 1. Barundar:I don't know if Barundar is red or town, but I honestly don't think it is something that mafia would do. Let's think for a second here, take what Barundar said: The thing is, when someone plays as mafia, it’s hard to do analysis because you know that the person who you are doing analysis is town, so you have to make up stuff.It's kinda hard to make up so much stuff just to try and sink LSB, and even if you do (say, Barundar is red and LSB is town), then it doesn't make any sense because Barundar would die next night for sure, so it would basically be two mafia down just to kill LSB. So if he is red (and they want LSB dead), it's just a really bad move, because once LSB flips town, he's dead. If he's town, it's an even worse move, because if LSB is town, then Barundar will most likely get lynched as well, and you will have wasted two lynches, and two of the better players and get absolutely nowhere. So here's what I'm saying: 1. Think really well about who to vote for. 2. FoS on those who voted on LSB with saying "oh wow that was a good analysis" but didn't really bother to THINK about it and the other possiblities and the outcomes. I'm sure there's at least a few mafia among them who were oh-so-glad an experienced townie is being targeted.Here are a few examples: Show nested quote +On February 28 2011 00:23 chaoser wrote:
Epic post dude....I'mma put my vote on him cause there's no fucking way mafia would spend that much time crafting a post like that spanning 3 parts...
Vote: LSB Yeah, that's a good freaking reason. Why would you bother thinking for yourself when someone posted a 3-part-post? No mafia writes that much! Show nested quote +On February 28 2011 00:51 OriginalName wrote:
I don't think mafia is beyond bussing d1 at all and I'm not prepared to let them succed for it HOWEVER we have to realize that if we get this wrong we are clearly on the wrong track and.
Mafia probably just got some lucky snipes
Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players
If anything I think the bus was instigated by the random vote on annul about mid way through d1
I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plaisable
Therefore
##Vote LSB This seems scummiest to me: "mafia probably just got some lucky snipes" - something of a 'reverse-gloating', being happy with the kills but trying to look very pro-town by saying almost nothing. "Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players" - umm, yeah, we can tell that based on... ummm.... ?! slip?! "I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plausible" - i like the risk of killing one of the best town players on the 50-50% he's red. (I'm saying 50-50 because he said it's "plausible", not likely or anything else) Of course, my whole theory tumbles if LSB is indeed red. But we are basing this solely on the idea that the mafia team pushed Annul to a lynch on day one, which is a massively ballsy thing to do. I'm not saying LSB is town, but at least give it more time to develop, just don't claim to him or whatever if you don't trust him.
As for Jackal, I didn't think he was scum, and I wanted to post a few bits based on Mafia 36 that made me think it was unlikely that he is red, but then he gave up on Gryph and voted LSB based on the fact that it's either him or Barundar, again, being certain that one of them is red, which no player should do so early in the game. That's about enough for now, as I still want to look over the posts and see if I can find someone worthy of my vote. But unless something really scummy pops up, it's definitely not gonna be LSB or Barundar. Not this time band-wagon-man! Here's my problem Cubed. Everybody expects me to tunnel. They call me aggressive. I'm damned if I do. I'm damned if I don't I understand what you wanted to link in XXXVI. My persistent vote on you. The difference between then and now is then I was positive you were on the red team. Now I have no one individual I can point at and say "you are scum" Not yet anyways. Barundar believes me to be scum due to my not tunneling. If you read the games I've been in til late game that "tunneling" hasn't started until about day 3 or so. We are still in day two. We have a pissing contest between two people that fervently believe the other is scum. I am vacillating between believing that either they both are or neither are. I honestly don't know yet. What I do know is I am surly incapable of pushing for a lynch on gryffindor. deconduo is the only other person here that I can see that would keep their vote on him til the end of day. I do know that I am going to change my vote back. I have seen enough from both of them to believe it to be at best a 50/50 shot of hanging another red. I don't like 50/50. ##UNVOTE: LSB
##VOTE: gryffindorI'd rather lynch a 100% confirmed liar. Oh, no, you understood me wrong. I was going to say that you had some moments in Mafia 36 where you were very pro-town. I found similarities here as well, and I was thinking about writing those in order to back you up as being town. BUT, your vote towards LSB made me think twice. I'm not saying it makes you scummy, I'm just saying that I'm not very keen into backing you up anymore, because I very much disagreed with your move. Also, I was going to post this sooner, but now I'm even more annoyed. What the fk Kenpachi? You always make me go WTF when I play with you. Can you please explain, how did your vote on Barundar make sense? If he was red, would it make sense that two reds die to kill LSB? Wouldn't it be easier to just triple-stack him and get it over with? And now you're saying "well it could be this or that, we should think about it!". I don't think you're putting too much into this game, as you only seem to be posting controversial things. I know that sometimes your approach works (like say, voting for a bunch of people to get them to talk), but you also do a lot of things that make no sense whatsoever to me, like voting for Barundar. The only way that Barundar is scum is if he devised a way to lynch LSB and then come out as town (like hope that a DT checks him and he is Godfather), otherwise, it's a 1-1 trade for mafia which just doesn't make sense, because if LSB flipped green, then the town would 90% sure turn on Barundar.
That being said, still have no idea who to vote for. I would vote for OriginalName because of the reasons mentioned in my previous post (bussing LSB with no explanation), but I was thinking of voting for icemac in day 1 as well, and I think LSB is right about not splitting votes.
Look at how much he writes. Look at how little he actually says. It's virtually nothing. Why? Because he is scum trying to act like he's contributing, without actually doing so. What's more, he has almost no strong, direct opinions about well, anything to do with guilt. He is okay with saying some people are innocent, but he somehow has no idea who he thinks is guilty and spends paragraphs that translate to "I DONT KNOW ANYTHING AHHHHH." His entire purpose in writing all that fluff is to make himself not look like a lurker but avoid provoking any hostility or getting any attention on himself. That is the mark of scum. Some additional (though trivial, in comparison with the above) points of him pushing mafia objectives: -Pushing doubt on me from the start after I bullseyed annul. He has continued that for the entire game. Note that he is the only single person to do so. Of course mafia doesn't want people listening to me. -Putting doubt out there that jbright was really town, trying to distract us from the mafia stacking on jbright to avoid the seraph lynch. -Continuously diverts attention from mafia under fire (annul and seraph in particular) posting many paragraph posts which say nothing and are basically utter nonsense. -He defends annul while voting him with extreme hesitation to make himself look less suspicious all while hiding that he's trying to do that. Gee chaoser did the same thing what a coincidence! He does the exact same thing with jbright too. -We cannot clear anyone based on their willingness to vote for fellow mafia at a certain time. Chaoser and LD also did the same thing, but that doesn't change how scum they are. Notice a trend here? If you want comparison, look at gryff's giant posts. He was townie, and he posted strongly about what he felt. Some of his opinions were crazy, but he didn't just right fluff, he didn't have posts with half a dozen paragraphs that could be summed up as 'i dont know.' He had content! Cubedin does not have content, he has something that looks like content but is just bullshit designed to avoid getting anyone focused on him or in the spotlight. Now why does all this have to make him mafia? Because he is hiding things that only a mafia would need to hide. A townie has no motivation to make such substantial posts that say effectively zilch. They'd just say it and move on. But cubedin clearly has that need to make himself look like he's a helpful contributor because he knows he's guilty and is trying to hide it. And what's more, A TOWNIE WOULD HAVE A DIRECT OPINION OF WHO THEY THINK IS SCUM. Cubedin did not except when he was already under pressure himself (chaoser lynch, when mafia clearly bailed on chaoser). There is no room for debate here. I was right about chaoser. I will be right about LD. And I'm right about Cubedin.
Mafia I'm coming for you.Annul and his broomstick
Seraph
Chaoser
LunarDestiny
Cubedin
Endgame:
One way of looking at the endgame and seeing why it must be deconduo is analyzing the mafia's votes when chaoser, ld, and cube were lynched 100% bandwagons on all of them, no debate on the last two. That meant a few things.
1) Mafia were playing for the endgame
2) Mafia were so confident in winning in the endgame that they didn't even bother struggling earlier in fear of giving away their godfather
Now who was alive at that point:
Deconduo
Gmarshal
Kevconsim
The only person on this list who over the game, has not been suspected, was deconduo. He even had multiple greens attesting to how innocent he was. At the 3 man lynch, he would have by far the best chance of living. The mafia absolutely would not have went into this endgame if kevconsim was their godfather, nor gmarshal given how scummy he looked when defending chaoser. Only deconduo was in that 'safe zone' prior to the last day, thus making him automatically mafia based on the mafia willingness to go turncoat on Lunar and Cube.
Overall, I want to give hats off to Jackal for his endgame play. The PM/thread discrepancy was brilliant in luring Deconduo into a position which totally violated his expectations and gave him no cards left to play. Endgames don't happen too often, and this is the first time I've seen them go down so superbly. It also shows a great way of using PM's and the thread in combination to push one agenda to mislead the mafia while pulling the strings behind the scene. The mafia use the thread for information too, so if you stop that, they lose a significant asset in their own planning. Had Jackal not made these moves the way he did (in private with public deception), the mafia might have struggled much more in lynching cubedin because they would not have thought Deconduo's position was completely safe in the final vote.
LSB also did a great job at persuading people (an underrated yet important skill that I was not in a position to teach this game) even if his reasoning was screwy at times. Definitely go check out his posts if you want to see how to help win people over to your lynch/cause.
I was guilty of not communicating with them nearly as much as I should have.
Mafia Summary (from my pov, deconduo's is postgame):
Annul - The smurf slipup shows he was withholding knowledge.
Seraph - Pregame/Ingame activity comparison shows he has a role. His few posts all push mafia objectives with heat. Simple lynch.
Chaoser - Made two horrific day 1 posts that screamed mafia. On the Jbright lynch.
LunarDestiny - Pregame/Ingame activity comparison shows he has a role. Ingame posts are vague, noncommittal, and . When left off the hook, disappears and doesn't even try to hide himself.
Cubedin - Made exceptionally indecisive posts disguised as trying to be helpful. Refused to take any stances or make any enemies. On the Jbright lynch.
Deconduo - Started the annul lynch yet disappeared afterwards. Had many posts but no presence and didn't really try to change that after day 2. Was too content to sit in the background and yet was capable of being helpful. He just didn't seem to care too much, an incongruency which shows something more must be there. Eventually he could be figured out due to process of elimination at the end. The "kevconsim can't be the godfather" argument was quite helpful for that. Also, other than the annul lynch, he never voted for a major candidate, always preferring to hang out on the side in any competitive lynch, again showing a desire to hide from view. Note that I did not read deconduo's post history, so this is not real "analysis," just some thoughts on overall trends.
I think the conclusion you need to draw from this game is that you absolutely do not need to be right when the day starts, just when it ends. Keep in mind I was rarely doing real analysis, I was just going on probable suspects and strong but not perfect moves, some of which were definitely red herrings. Thus, my information needed to come from somewhere else, and that somewhere else was the progress of each day. If I had voted for who I thought was mafia at the beginning of each day instead of the end, my track record would have looked considerably worse. As it stood, my vote ended on a mafia every day but day 5 when the BM lynch forced a weaker but easier lynch.
Mafia Side
What the mafia did well:
You guys did a great job of infiltrating townie groups and hitting some key blues early on, something that I don't think any mafia group without an older top player leading them has done in years, so congratulations.
Chaoser in particular swindled Barundar and Gmarshal superbly. In particular, on the day Chaoser was getting lynched, Barundar sent me a conversation of those 3 hoping to dissuade me from lynching Chaoser. I looked at it and I saw that Chaoser was saying the exact opposite in private messages to them of what he was doing in the thread (like 'LSB is innocent' when he's trying to get him lynched hahaha). I pointed this out and Barundar was still completely sold on Chaoser's innocence. Well done man, I love seeing the mafia using pm's correctly like that.
Errors
The biggest error by far was day 4. You guys absolutely should have pushed LSB dead instead of jumping ship. Let's look objectively at the situation.
-Coagulation and Jackal know LSB is innocent. Jackal in particular was in the incredibly awkward situation of having to defend LSB when he knew LSB was lying.
-I know LSB is innocent because I know Chaoser is guilty. I also don't think jackal would make up what he told me out of the blue like that.
-That's 4 votes for chaoser.
-Even if LSB is innocent, why should anyone else believe chaoser is guilty if they didn't listen to what I said? My thread presence was so minimal it was easy to (and you guys successfully did) discredit or spam away my analysis. The lynch can be easily redirected elsewhere. Jackal basically just jumped on Chaoser out of the blue and anyone with a figment of logic ccould see that the "bait and switch" argument was nonsense.
With the level of play everyone else in the town was at as well as having two voracious greens in your pocket spamming your agenda for you, it would have been so easy to get LSB lynched. Remember that even when LSB popped vigi, that did not clear LA, nor did it mean Chaoser was mafia. The mafia could easily have just been sitting in the shadows laughing, for all the average townie knew. You guys were thinking too much like mafia when Chaoser was accused. You knew he was mafia, but most of the town did not. Unfortunately, you saw it only from your knowledge, and not from theirs.
Other problems:
-Not shooting me. I honestly expected to die every single day of the game. Day 1 and 2 I can kinda understand as everyone ignored what I busted annul on and I wasn't a presence and day 2 I didn't do too much. Should have definitely been killed night 3 though after posting that axis of evil post and having voted for mafia every day. After day 4 when I pushed chaoser that absolutely 100% should have been a kill.
-Not shooting Foolishness day 1. Foolishness has been shot night 1 3 or 4 games now and he was never protected because medics are stupid. In every single game he has lived past day 1 as town he has won the game for his side or put his team in a great position. Leaving him alive is like playing with fire, and you guys got burnt badly day 2 and 3. Things would have looked very different with him dead.
-Shooting LA and Jbright over any of the four town group (coag lsb jackal me) night 4. Made absolutely no sense.
-Passive play. Deconduo, Chaoser, Annul, and Cubedin were all very active, while LD and Seraph could have been judging from their pregame activity. Yet none of you bothered much to establish a serious thread presence besides annul. I don't know for sure but my guess is you guys did the numbers partway through and figured you pretty much had the game in the game unless the town got essentially perfect lynches so you didn't try to extend the net beyond gmarshal and barundar or get anyone to push mafia objectives in the thread. The former three posted quite a bunch, but were content to simply remain in the background out of suspicion and focus, which is great in games like mafia xxxv when nobody in the town can analyze mafia, but in this game when several people could, you are asking trouble. Bottom line when you are up against top players mafia cannot sit back or they lose.
|
EPT
![[image loading]](http://hubba-u.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/professor_badass.jpg)
