EPTXXXVII Boot Camp/Analysis thread. - Page 4
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
On March 15 2011 23:26 deconduo wrote: What gave me away btw? Process of elimination? Apart from that, I hate being mafia.  I'm just bad at lying and manipulating etc. I have much more fun as town.Totally share that feeling. I love hunting reds but don't know what to do with myself when I AM red. | ||
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
Also, his writeup is taking a while. But it's coming tonight, he promises! | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On March 18 2011 12:06 Qatol wrote: BREAKING NEWS!!! Ver has admitted he is an extraterrestrial mafia member! More at 11! Also, his writeup is taking a while. But it's coming tonight, he promises! Wait! When is 11!? Can you put on some [local] tag? | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
On March 18 2011 09:48 Qatol wrote: Yeah the thing its more that you have to make your mind up on each player individually. For example, in my opinion BC was nowhere near as good as his press for quite a while (he improved a lot in the last 6 months or so). And performances can vary from game to game. But when that player starts to look like they're on their game, mafia should start to get worried. And it isn't even a matter of experience or senority. There are definitely players who have not played much which would be in this category for me, and a lot of older players which are not in this category. The solution I want to see for this problem is for more people to care enough to put effort into getting better so the skill gaps aren't so big that this hit strategy makes practical sense. And as for the hits, it's a fine line, but I think the mafia should have gone after Ser Aspi after he caught Seraph. I did say for ages I thought I was terrible and had no idea why I was though of as a good player  Considering I never actually behavioural analyzed till what? last year around this time and i blew at it.However to your main point the general opinion of vets is well, odd. People who have in the past proven they can play at the level expected of their "status" I understand being given the respect, however the general public seems to think just because player A has played for 2 years means they are much better than player B C and D who all joined 6 months ago. This is well, untrue in some cases. I think what people need to realize is a name is just a name. Regardless of who's behind it you should be afraid of what they are saying as opposed to who's saying it. Qatol mentions ser aspi as an example and he is correct. An unrecognized name starts raping mafia left right and center should have been shot. Killing foolishness was intelligent as he was a named player doing it as well, but the delay in which it took to kill both of them was astonishing. By day 3-4 two people had destroyed the mafia pretty well and had lived to tell about it. To go along with this, mafia really should learn to stack KP to off those vocal players. A loss of KP might happen now in terms of night kills, but silencing those smart analyzers might save who knows how many members of your team later. On the flip side of that, Town IMO has to learn to start policy lynching / vigi or hatter using on players who over the course of a game shown to be unhelpful/detrimental to town. Even if that person flips town, it removes a possible spot for red to hide in or behind. Sometimes those people could flip red, but look at this game that just wrapped up. People who should have played much much more actively than they did (i am guilty of this) left a ton of room for mafia to hide in. Lunar, Decon and seraph were all huge lurkers this game, and two lived for a large portion of the game because so many town members gave them a spot to hide in. This game also showed a level of wtfness to some of the hits mafia made however. Hitting me and Jbright in the same day when both of us were on radars for being scum is well, retarded. Off someone who seems to be contributing, or someone heavily analyzing you not two people who are people you could potentially get lynched. Even if you think said people could be blue roles, what does it matter if you can convince town to lynch them. | ||
Ver
United States2186 Posts
Half today half tomorrow! | ||
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Ver
United States2186 Posts
Some matters to keep in mind:
-I was very limited on time (1-2 hrs a day at most). So rather than taking this as 'how to go all out' you should look at it more as 'how to make some impact on little time and figure out solid lynch choices without a large quantity of analysis.' The main result of this was I didn't really look at anyone too in depth until they were already 'pinned.' -To emphasize how to make efficient decisions and refine other important skill sets, a lot of this recap will focus more on 'reading the game' rather than hardcore behavior analysis. -My analysis will mostly be from my pov during the game rather than my typical 'overhead 3rd person style' -I will be quoting my posts a bunch to save me time and because I doubt many people took them seriously or noticed them, especially early on, thinking I was just some random newbie. My goal is to show my own thought process as a learning example. -Overall I felt the summary of this game for catching mafia was: the mafia are the ones who are trying to hide something. Lastly, you will notice that almost every one of my posts was made with 100% conviction. That was a deliberate act. The only people I was absolutely 100% certain on were Chaoser, LD, and cubedin (lategame) and for each one I said that. The most dangerous person for the mafia to face (and the town as well actually) is the one who is absolutely convinced of themselves and will stop at nothing to get their target lynched. Mafia absolutely delight to see townies who aren't sure of themselves. First of all, someone who can't convince themselves can't convince others, and secondly, it's easier for the mafia to dissuade that person out of their attacks if they manage to hit mafia. I remember in Salem Doctor H had snagged Jimbosilvers and Radfield, but he made the fatal mistake of showing doubt of his own convictions, and the mafia whispered eagerly in glee and redoubled their efforts to save themselves. Had he showed complete belief in his targets, the mafia were much more inclined to simply give up. I think that happened in this game as well. LSB, Foolishness, and myself were all acting in such a certainty of our beliefs and the mafia simply never had the heart to take us on. So as soon as we hit red, that was one mafia down. Obviously that had an enormous effect on the game, because there was not one single lynch where the mafia team mobilized their forces to take us on in the thread and in the voting booth at once. Instead every single time they hurriedly stepped to the side and said 'please, go right ahead and kill my buddy good sir.' Pretty awesome right? I imagine some observers must have found it hilarious how I would go right from "Jbright or LA is mafia" to a complete 180 and guning for Seraph or Chaoser with that same total conviction without ever pointing out how I was wrong or anything. A lot of people do that, but why is it necessary? Why weaken your argument or persuasion ability? Do I recommend this for everyone, or almost anyone? No, absolutely not. Most people are simply not good enough for this playstyle to be worth it. If you are not good enough, you are screwing over your team badly. Mafia sure love those gungho townies who keep gunning for other townies. But if you have confidence in your ability to find mafia sometime in the future, why not give it a try? Why not act like you are completely right and give no doubt that you might be wrong? On the setup: The most important thing I got from the setup was that KP was likely to be limited (I expected 2 vets though) and we had no double lynches. This meant that there was really no reward for finding more than one mafia at once. In mafia 18 for example, with 2 families with 3 kp each the goal was to find 6 mafia per day so each family could shoot 3. In that game I pulled out all the stops from the start, setting up PM traps, baiting people in the thread, and grilling people behind the scenes to fulfill that quota and ended up bagging 9 or 10 mafia by day 3. Because of my haste however, I ended up getting a few important townies killed first night unnecessarily. In this game, there was no such hurry (which helped me when I wasn't going to use PM's). All we needed was to find 1 mafia per day to lynch. Remember, there's no real advantage for figuring out the whole team and posting it day 1 if you can't kill them; it's more likely to just get forgotten and you're apt to be wrong anyways when you attempt too much. Understanding the limitations of play from the game setup is important in determining the course of action. It let us pull all these stunts and traps in the thread because we were in no hurry to figure everything out right away. Remember, at the beginning of the day, what I was accusing innocents quite often. But when the votes were tallied, Foolishness and I had our votes on mafia every time except for Ohn and that was only because we were hoping LD would get modkilled. Furthermore, there actually was incentive for figuring out mafia then not saying anything. This was crucial when I figured out Chaoser's guilt but didn't announce it. It allowed me to discern the innocence of THREE players under huge scrutiny (jbright/BC/LSB) because I hid that knowledge until the last minute. In short, look at what you are playing to start off and formulate a rough plan of action from the beginning. Day 1: Normally towns are bad at creating useful information day 1 so I was planning on just sitting back and advising against any bad moves, but GMarshal's plan ended up creating a lot of practical info. Not only did it make him extremely likely innocent, but annul and chaoser both messed up very badly. Also, Gmarshal's initial contribution, while not particularly profound nor useful, was excellent for establishing him as an innocent. Keep your head high man, you did the town a great service! On February 23 2011 15:54 Ser Aspi wrote: I'm voting Chaoser because this post sucks and reeks of red. Repeating something others have said? Check Saying generic obvious advice? Check Making it look like u r saying something but not really? Check vote Chaoser This is a huge mafia post because of those reasons. To elaborate, this is a classic case of someone making a post to try to blend in. A player with significant experience/intuition should be able to feel the lack of something from this post, an indicator that chaoser is hiding something. In addition, when one looks at the objective for making this post, I could only conclude that he is making it to look like hes helping out. The distinction here between knowing that he has a role, and knowing that he is mafia, can be discerned from subtle details. A blue will make a real contribution in an attempt to help the town organize itself or find scum, but hold back overall. A mafia is more likely to make it look like they are making a real contribution while not actually doing so, which is the case here. These posts are likely to rehash things other people have already said or give advice which should be pretty obvious. However, the pressure on chaoser was ignored and even I would forget about this until day 3 in lieu of annul. Annul's lambasting of gmarshal's plan was clearly something that favored mafia objectives. However, that did not make him mafia on its own. More information was needed. I tried to provoke it with this post, and voila, I got my answer. On February 24 2011 12:14 Ser Aspi wrote: lol there's no need for pm circles? ya ok. So you think that mafia will have no trouble at all keeping up with their town portrayal and pm portrayal and making sure both are congruent? lol Of course this is harder for mafia than just worrying about not being caught in the thread, why would we not do it. The main, only danger is that townies would blabber too much about their role or trust too easily in their partners and be manipulated to mafia ends. That is why whoever you pm needs to be treated as another suspect, someone that you are trying to get extra information out of, not a long time buddy etc. I don't particularly care for randomized groups or whatever; I pm who I want. But it's a good initiative, the only real unique contribution from anyone. The real scrutiny should be on those who are dissing it for terrible reasons. Some are probably town but they are pushing things mafia want and I wouldn't be surprised if a mafia or two is amongst them. On February 24 2011 12:48 Ser Aspi wrote: cute way to sidetrack the debate off your scummy play. "HE POSTED LOGIC SMURFFFFF AHHHHH IGNORE ME" Sorry if I forgot about tl mafia and been busy playing at epicmafia and mafiascum for the past year. Naturally you don't actually respond to what I said. Even more interesting, a smurf would be someone more knowledgeable than a new player. For you to think that I am a smurf immediately means that you felt what I said had merit. Thus that means you know better, which means you are scum bullshiting. vote## Annul Im gonna knock you off your broomstick boy Let's look carefully at this and see exactly how he MUST be mafia because of it. First of all, how can you determine when someone has to be mafia, when you have to be absolutely certain of the lynch? When they do or say something that only a mafia could possibly do in that situation. In other words, it comes down to motivations and way of thinking. A mafia knows they are guilty. So what happens here? I bring up valid arguments against whatever nonsense annul was spewing and his response, judging from post times (just a minute or two later) an impulsive response, was to jump to the conclusion that I am a smurf. For annul's thought process to be this, some more things have to be going on. Firstly, he must realize that what I'm saying is valid. Secondly, smurfs are a better player posing as a newbie, which means what they are posting inherently has more merit. Finally, if all of the above is true, then there must be another layer to annul's thought process: that he knows better, and therefore he is hiding something. Thus, he must be mafia. This is some weirdo logic not easily reproduced, but it held true here. Mafia slipups come in all shapes and forms, so you have to be on the lookout for oddities like this case. If the delay of his post was longer, I wouldn't feel confident in using the same logic. However, the fact that it came a minute after showed that it was an impulsive response which helped guarantee the validity of the logic. On another note, annul dodges the real points against him and just argues against fluff or nitpicks. Some townies do this too, so it's not entirely indicative of guilt, but it certainly doesn't help his defense at all. However, townies who do this are more apt to ignore accusations entirely (I do this often. I don't recommend it, but it is possible as town). Annul doesn't ignore the accusations, he just ignores or diverts the good reasons, such as you saw up there by bringing up the smurf possibility while ignoring how anti-town he was being, while still defending himself against nonsense accusations. If you want to look at it another, simpler, way, try this: 1) Annul is pushing a scum agenda (throwing doubt around, putting down contributions without contributing himself, making others look suspicious without getting any real reactions from them). That means he is either: a) Scummy OR b) Dummmy How do you tell between those? A scummy hides something, while a dummy is just....an open-faced dummy. Annul was most definitely not open-faced. The smurf comment conclusively proved that he was hiding something, and overall I felt from his posts that he was withholding part of himself. If you notice, his entire effort was put into defending himself. In particular as time went on, he didn't care about trying to make use of his time left to help the town at all, as he might after he died. There was no 'once i die check out these people for these reasons etc.' A lot of people voted for annul because he was too aggressive or something, which is nonsense. Being aggressive does not make someone town or mafia (especially someone consistently aggressive like Annul). Two more interesting things went on for me that day. Once annul and I had that exchange, I immediately went to BloodyC0bbler and Foolishness (both knew my real identity the whole game BTW) and told them to both press annul in the thread and vote for him. At this point, I was afraid that mafia would muck up the thread and vote as usual and we'd lose the chance of getting a mafia day 1 (I had no idea LSB would be able to wave a magic hand and have the town follow him to the moon). Their reactions were much less than I expected. BC laughed off the accusation entirely and helped why bandwagon icemac to get annul off the hook, while Foolishness was unconvinced but agreed to put his vote on annul at the least. Red alarms went off in my head, as I felt both players were good enough to recognize annul's mafianess. Turns out in the end foolishness simply didn't look closely or believe me and didn't want to put any effort at all into day 1. It's a good example of me making a simple misjudgment and that yes, ancient players who don't play often that have high reputations make dumb mistakes too. I still have no idea what on earth BC was thinking though. I thought he was mafia most of the game. Anyways, I felt I could save BC for later, but I wanted to reveal Foolishness's alignment to myself quickly so I could work with him if possible. I started questioning him over IM and his answers did not give proper indication either way. So my solution was act like I knew he was mafia over IM and see how he responded. For example, when we were talking about BM, I would say "Well you aren't going to kill him because he screws over the town too much." I figured that he wouldn't be prepared for such a strategy and thus would give a genuine reaction. If he was town he would likely get annoyed quickly. If he was mafia he might overreact at first but wouldn't care as much in the long run since he'd know the accusations were true. In the end he didn't take it too seriously at first but got annoyed after I kept doing it. Hence, most likely town. Then in IM's he told me the following impulsively. (3:52:02 PM) Foolishness: DUDE (3:52:57 PM) Foolishness: last night while i was in canada (3:53:01 PM) Foolishness: i had a dream that i came home today (3:53:06 PM) Foolishness: and the mafia thread was 105 pages (3:53:08 PM) Foolishness: @.@ (3:53:17 PM) Foolishness: that's probably the worst nightmare i've had in a long while If he was mafia he would be delighted that the thread was 105 pages on day 2. Another clear indicator that he's town. Turns out I kinda went overboard (of acting like he was mafia) without realizing it and seriously annoyed him. It all turned out okay in the end, though, ja? Whether or not you should copy some of my solutions I cannot say, but mafia does offer a lot of room for creatively solving problems and I wanted to give an example of that. Regardless, Foolishness displayed his innocence prominently day 2 when he tried to get everyone off of the main lynch targets and onto LunarDestiny with solid analysis. Mafia Foolishness would never try such a thing. That's simply a judgment I can make from knowing his overall game history. Post day 1 Lynching a mafia on day 1 is so extraordinarily rare (this is maybe the 3rd or 4th time it's ever happened) that it will inevitably give a lot of details about the mafia team itself. First, they could not push the lynch off annul. On February 25 2011 12:21 Ser Aspi wrote: The important thing i think to realize from this lynch is that mafia are poorly coordinated and do not have much influence in the town. At least in the games Ive played and seen mafia never die day one, even super obvious ones like annul cause their team can manipulate stuff and start some other dumbass bandwagon This means that the remaining mafia have very low profiles in the thread. Those players - low post counts, non committal players, useless people, are who DTs cops should check and we should consider for lynch tomorrow. Also given the unlikelihood that mafia tried to bandwagon annul off, until maybe it was assured he would die, i wouldn't worry about icemac or gryffindor being scum, as bad as they might be playing. At the time I did not word this quite properly. It would be more precise to say that the mafia did not have anyone who was capable of just straight up getting in the town's face and pushing mafia objectives without fear, someone like, say, L, Ace, or Pyrrhuloxia. If the mafia was capable of actually fighting strongly, they would never ever have let annul die. However, Annul died, thus mafia were not capable of overturning the lynch. That is some very valuable info towards their capabilities and characteristics. It meant that they were too scared of their own knowledge of who is mafia and who is innocent and too hesitant to act on it. Secondly, the 'he bussed annul' logic is utterly absurd. Once RoL clarified the KP discrepancy day 3, we could discern that mafia started with 3.5 KP (rounded up to 4). That meant that if a mafia didn't die day 1, they started with a ridiculously broken FOUR KP. Yes, deconduo did start the annul lynch, but keep in mind he didn't push particularly hard and was still throwing doubt on gryffindor and icemac too while halfheartedly saying 'annul is my vote.' Regardless, mafia have no reason to die day 1. People give town cred way too much emphasis when it really doesn't mean much, if only because there are a ton of people who will get suspicious over anything. In general the simplest solution is the truth. Stick with that and you'll go far. With postgame knowledge, let's look at how the mafia handled themselves that day:
Seraph- Tried to downplay annul vs LSB as simply a grudge match and wanted to ignore the issue, putting doubt on other candidates. LunarDestiny- Made a series of horrific posts openly yet halfheartedly defending annul. Voted for icemac. Chaoser- Made possibly the most obvious mafia post in the game where he tries to hide how he's defending annul by putting suspicion on other candidates, downplaying annuls guilt and trying to place him as a backup lynch as a last resort, while trying to look clean by voting for him. Cubedin- Ran around like a chicken with his head cut off screaming 'i dont know!!!' He voted for annul but very clearly wanted someone else to die. Very revealing, neh? With some serious time and analysis, someone could've bagged the entire mafia team off that lynch, or at least 3-5 members. Day 2: I was gone most of the day phase so I couldn't make a move until the end, which hampered us considerably. But anyways, the majority of the talk was on LSB vs Barundar, gryffindor, and Icemac. Those 4 occupied the town's attention til the very end. Of course, all four were innocent. Now I'm going to tell you a little secret. I didn't read any of the posts by those 4. It wasn't necessary. They, by virtue of the voting lists or their simple prominence in the thread, were not good targets. And frankly, who wants to read gryffindor's posts? First of all, Icemac is extremely likely innocent solely for being the second highest person on the day 1 voting list. There simply is no way mafia is so incompetent that the two highest voters on day 1 are both mafia. The fact that very few people argued against a lynch of icemac was also a clue that something was up. Look at the debate surrounding annul! That's not a certain fact, just an extremely probable heuristic. Secondly, gryffindor, LSB, and Barundar were both very prominent people who had no trouble being outspoken and decisive against each other. Remember what we surmised at the end of day 1, that mafia were not prominent and that they didn't have the ability to fight against the Annul lynch head on, and that they were not fearlessly outspoken? Well given our trio here has all of those qualities, it would be silly to think any of them could be mafia. Any other reasons don't matter. The above logic trumps all else in this situation because otherwise the Annul lynch could never have happened and day 1 mafia lynches do not happen without very good reasons. Now, I wasn't entirely certain all 4 were innocent without having read their posts, but I could be certain that they were very poor lynch targets and our odds were not good going for that group at all. So, it was clear that the town was heading for disaster with all of their major suspects being obvious innocents. Foolishness and I both realized this, and so we had to figure out alternate candidates. We went for the pattern of probable lurking mafia here, and came up with Jbright, Seraph, and LD. The latter two 100% had roles solely judging by the disparity of their pregame posts with their ingame posts (about equal lol), so it was just a question of determining whether they were mafia or blue (the other person to fit this discrepancy was Mr Wiggles, who "coincidentally," was a detective). Jbright was caught being completely and utterly useless on purpose and obviously did not care about the town. Of these Jbright clearly had the weaker reasons (the latter 2 were caught hiding something, while Jbright might just be a terrible green), but I was a little hesitant about gunning for people who might end up just claiming blue and then we'd be sitting there saying 'oops' and lsb/barundar/icemac would get lynched. In the end, that's what happened anyway. Foolishness and I screwed up here pretty badly, we should've bandwagoned one person rather than putting forward two candidates. In my usual absentmindedness I simply thought we had another 30 hours for the lynch instead of just 6. Fortunately this was alleviated as everyone ignored my post on jbright anyway. However, the vote ended up getting slightly diverted and people jumped ship at the last moment. Lunardestiny obviously had a role and was a solid lynch regardless considering he had been caught trying to defend annul the way he did. Overall, day 2 was not a very useful day for the town because we failed to and in the end an obvious green got lynched. That kinda deflated our awesome day 1 lynch, but we had a plan to make up ground on day 3. Day 3: The key thing to learn from this day is how to make the most of opportunities. We had 3 good targets, and not enough kp. So we set up a couple of traps to gain a lot of information. It started with my day post: Our Axis of Evil: LunarDestiny Seraph Jbright + Show Spoiler [My Long pre-day post on the axis of evil] + On March 01 2011 11:53 Ser Aspi wrote: ![[image loading]](http://hubba-u.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/professor_badass.jpg) Posting now in case I die. I do realize that this town seems to only care about big name players and big name spammers but maybe, just maybe...this badass picture will help save the day. What we learned day 1- Mafia couldn't save annul. Therefore mafia must not be able to influence the votes the way they want. That means most, if not all of their remaining members, must be in the afk/lurker group. Thus, the highest priority focus should be there. Simple logic right? Apparently not to the geniuses who think that annul was bussed because obviously scum want to just throw away an active member when they could otherwise get out of jail for free? All for some petty little trust? Not like being right once means anyone will be right again. Lightning doesn't always strike twice. LSB/Barundar mgiht be mafia, might not. But others are far far more likely. So ignore them for now. What we learned day 2- Nothing except that the town is incompetent and focuses on the easy lynches instead of the guys who dont want to stick out. In short do the opposite of this and ur good. Some more bad posts: So much you could weigh in on, and you write an essay that boils down: "posting pm's when theres a reason that gives town more reliable information is good" Of all the things you could have posted on LIKE SUSPECTS AND WHO YOU THINK IS MAFIA AND WHY, you said something as useless and obvious as that, and make it look like you are good Sir Sherlock Holmes solving cases left and right. You sir are trying to blend in. Who might want to blend in? DRRR I wonder. Maybe scum? Priority 1 players? Dont make me laugh at LSB's marketing bullshit. Foolishness made a good case, he seems to know his stuff, and we listened. Nothing more to it, LD was a better lynch than icemac/barundar/lsb. Your entire post boils down to: "Hold my hand and dont hurt me if i im wrong but maybe icemac or barundar might possibly be mafia but i dont want to take an active stance and point da finger. OH AND DONT TRUST FOOLISHNESS." Of course scum wouldnt want us to trust someone who can make posts like that. Please explain why a townie would make his most impactful post consisting of such drivel that helps the mafia. Oh wait, you cant. Are you joking? I mean seriously, you have to be kidding? could you make it anymore obvious you dont care at all about the town? You point out how useless you are, and that's it? You dont make any attempt to do....ANYTHING?.You don't weigh in on what you think of the days events, who you think is guilty or innocent, or anything besides how useless you are, which we know already. Great! If you are a townie i dont ever want to play with you again, but you arent, so its cool ill see you next game brodooski. Conclusions Axis of Evil Jbright -Doesnt care about the town Seraph -his (few) posts help scum LunarDestiny - tries to look like hes being helpful while hiding that he really isnt Both seraph and lunar are clearly very active and engaged as evidenced by their pregame posts and suddenly arent after getting their roles. Jbright is obvious as all hell, nothing more should be said. There are other people who deserve attention too, eg Why for his original bandwagon on icemac when annul was under heat and penchant for only pressuring innocents, but stick with the axis of evil for now and maybe throw a check on our good Question pal if he doesn't die. Remember, highest priority/most guilty people first. Anyone else after. Now, let's take a look at the tools we have. The key here is that we present the lynch as a choice between two people. After the day 2 debacle Foolishness had enough town presence to basically choose anyone and say 'die' and that's what would happen. So he and I could simply have done serious analysis, gotten 1 person narrowed down, and killed them. However, we tried to split the vote between two people in an ambitious attempt to learn more than just one identity. Now, which two people? Foolishness here devised a clever trap for LD, guessing that if LD was mafia, he would go inactive the moment attention went off him. If he was active still, we couldn't be certain either way. As we were uncertain on LD at this point (his defense was bad but not criminal), it would be smartest to leave him on the side and focus on the other two. For the results of this trap to be valid, we could not give any idea of what we were really planning. In other words, we just had to make it look like we disagreed on who was the better lynch. Foolishness helped portray this image a bit in this post My original pre-day 3 post of the 'axis of evil' was designed to plant the possibility of going for any of those people in the lynch. Then afterwards we each put forth a case on Jbright and Seraph individually. As long as the mafia didn't realize what we were doing, then we could possibly get some valid data. + Show Spoiler [Trap Posts] + On March 01 2011 18:00 Ser Aspi wrote: That just confirmed it scum. You're going down. I am not letting you out of my sight Let's break down exactly what you said. Cause most of it is just irrelevant fluff and we need a translator for scum posts.
2 "im not giving up im just useless but dont blame me for it!" You say you are better at thinking about the situation, but you have given almost no input about situations. In other words you are bullshitting to save your ass. 3 "ima restate foolishness's arguments and add a little confusion to them. I need to make sure i say 'im not sure' a lot so people dont call me out on anything i might say" 4 "ima put doubt on some people with absolutely no reasoning to back it up but wait dont take it too seriously i dont want any backlash!1!111!!" 5 "random probability crap." wtf this doesnt mean anything just more nonsense 6 "add in some completely unrelated dr h quote and talk about worshipping confirmed innocents to make your post look cooler and longer" 7 "LD might be good to kill but i dunno ill wait for him to post so i can change my stance without looking bad" You said that little in one of the largest posts in this thread. WTF? You post no real strong opinion and you don't want to take a stance. You just stated a bunch of garbage and tried to avoid getting blamed for how useless you are. You still don't care about the town, but, this time, you are trying a lot harder to make it look like you are. In the same vein that is a post considerably longer than any post I have found of yours in any game. Like, many times larger. Guess what, you felt the heat and OVERCOMPENSATED. You probably even had your buddies help you out in constructing it. ##vote: Jbright Don't worry about LD, Seraph or anyone else. This guy just gave himself up and we can only kill one guy at a time. Don't split the vote and let the mafia choose who to kill. One guy at a time. I am coming for you. On March 02 2011 13:39 Foolishness wrote: Seraph As already mentioned, he has a very low post count. However we must take into effect that he said he would be mia for a portion of the game, which he apparently was. What's more interesting his that he posted a bunch pre game then his activity died off as the game went on. It looks like he made more posts day 1 than he did day 2, and more day 2 than he has today. What could cause the declining post count as the game goes on? Keep in mind he was really active pre game. Either he's mafia or a bored townie (of course there's a little leeway because he said he would be gone for a day or two). Bored townie is reasonable: he was active pre game and at the beginning, but then got bored because he didn't have a role or because there was nothing cool happening in the thread. Mafia is reasonable: he tried to be active in the beginning, but as we all know mafia never want to post if they don't have to. Given this information, I do not believe it very reasonable that he is a bored townie. This is one the very few games where we got a mafia lynched day 1; that's hella exciting in itself. The amount of spam in this game is considerably less overall than most games (especially yesterday and today), and we've only had 2 real modkills. I looked through his posts in Pokemafia and mafia xxxv and found a striking difference (both these games he was town). His overall post count is not that high (compared to spammers like Coagulation and Gryffindor) but he has a lots of one or two liners. Even when he was lynched in mafia xxxv he made one liners right up to his death. This game his posts are moderately big walls of text, with a few one liners. Here's one of his few big posts from mafia xxxv Here we have him doing some analysis, which is great. It's not detailed or ideal but it's at least an honest effort. Compare it to his analysis this game: This post he hasn't said anything of value, other than giving and 8 word reason on people he's suspicious of (this was the best post I could find of us where he tried to give his thoughts on a situation that might be meaningful to the town). Here's a post from pokemafia: The thing to take away from this post is his outspoken attitude. You can notice the same kinda posting style in the one above from mafia xxxv. He has a semi aggressive style. For instance, notice that he swears off and on and he's definitely showing he's pissed off. I haven't found any post he's made this game that has the same kinda attitude. (Note: I'm not saying that swearing implies mafia or that swearing means anything. What's important is there is a clear attitude change from his past games and this game. He does not have an outspoken stance this game compared to his last games.) Further example. This post is from Pokemafia after mafia killed 3 blues during the night: The following post is from this game: Only the first 3 words are important for this argument. Before when a bunch of blues died he was flipping out, this game he just says "ouch". Definitely a lack of empathy towards the town in this game, while in his previous games he was concerned when blues starting toppling. Conclusion: Seraph's posting rates shows he's either mafia or a bored townie. When we look at his past games, we see a somewhat aggressive posting style (not afraid to speak his mind) and concern for the well-being of the town. This game there is a clear lack of that as his posts just indicate that he's here watching. I've already voted for him. So should you! Take a look at the Jbright post. Notice how I stack all these points against him, but keep in mind nothing in there makes him absolutely be mafia. I am more attacking his poor quality posts, then trying to analyze how he might be mafia. Note that I do think he is mafia, but I am not sure. The reason I made this post like this is to reinforce the case against him. There's a difference between doing analysis to prove someone is mafia and trying to push for their lynch: here, I am doing the latter, which makes this more of a sensationalist post than analysis. The reason I think he is mafia is because he actively doesn't care about the town at all, but there is always that nagging possibility that he might be an utterly useless townie. However, if I want there to be the possibility of him getting lynched, I need to make a case that people will believe and give the mafia someone to vote for if necessary. Hence this type of sensationalist accusation where I just dissect his posts and take everything I can get and throw it at him like a cafeteria food fight. Foolishness's post is more on the analysis side, which is not surprising as he has a stronger case. The reason I do a sensationalist post is because the goal here is to simply make lynching him possible for both town and mafia to jump on. I don't actually need to convince anyone of his guilt in the way an analysis would as we are using the day's proceedings to really figure out what happens. Remember, at this point for us, it's highly likely that at least 1 of Jbright/Seraph/LD is mafia, likely 2, possibly 3, but not too likely. I am well aware of my own shortcomings and realize that I hit the target somewhere between 65-90% of the time, almost never 100% because I actively use heuristics (such as how I leapt to the conclusion that LSB/Barundar/Icemac/Gryff were all bad lynches without reading their posts) and make educated guesses instead of patiently waiting for 100% confirmation like some players such as Mrbabyhands. The real indicator of who is mafia will depend on how the lynch unfolds. So how does the lynch unfold? Well, with 6 hours remaining, Seraph and LSB were tied at 3 votes, Jbright had 2, one of them being myself. Then within a 3 hour period, the voting suddenly jumps to: Jbright 7: Seraph 4, LSB 2. An interesting point is that the two LSB votes jumped to Jbright, while LSB is voting for Seraph. Whoa wait what? Votes aren't enough on their own, let's look at the reasons. + Show Spoiler [Mid voting List] + On March 03 2011 09:31 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Jbright - 7 Coagulation Ser Aspi GMarshal chaoser CubEdIn kevconsim LastArgument LunarDestiny - 0 Seraph - 4 Foolishness why LSB Barundar Gryffindor - 1 JBright Barundar - 1 LSB Kevconism - 1 Jackal58 LSB - 2 bumatlarge deconduo ____________ Jbright is leading the vote with 7. Followed by Seraph with 4. Voting ends in approx 2.5 hours. My thoughts in paranthesis Gmarshal: Wants to kill an inactive player with garbage reasoning (I think he's townie from day 1 plan and overall reactions) Chaoser: Wants to vote for LSB. Likes Foolishness's points but just votes Jbright because he's inactive (I know he's mafia from day 1 analysis) Cubedin: Extremely indecisive, keeps wavering between both without pressing too hard. Likes Jbright more because he's inactive (I think he's mafia from day 1 analysis) Kevconsim: Sheep Vote (Who is this guy!?) BC: Sheep Vote (I think he's mafia from overall play) Such compelling reasons huh? 5 brand smacking new voters who's best argument is "hes inactive." Even moreso, they are hopping on the bandwagon at the very end of the vote. Makes you want to jump off the cliff right with them yeah? After seeing all this, I'm thinking, 'whoa Batman, the Joker just played his ace here. I do not want to vote for this guy.' Fortunately, a lot of the town also smelled the same thing and we managed to get the right guy dead. + Show Spoiler [End Voting List] + On March 03 2011 11:55 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Jbright - 7 Ser Aspi GMarshal chaoser CubEdIn kevconsim LastArgument JBright LunarDestiny - 0 Seraph - 7 Foolishness why LSB Barundar Jackal58 LunarDestiny gryffindor Ser Aspi Gryffindor - 1 Barundar - 2 LSB Coagulation Kevconism - 2 LSB - 2 bumatlarge deconduo ohN - 1 ohN Now we can tell many things from this lynch because of the way it happened. The first is that Jbright was green. This is because of how close it was. Right until the last minute, it was competitive, and Seraph only died because he hit 7 votes first (partially due to Jbright being a moron trying to lynch himself lol?). The only reason Seraph won is because a number of people freaked out at the Jbright voters (and LD voted Seraph surprisingly). Maybe foolishness helped convince people in private, I'm not too sure. If this was a voting contest between two reds, then a) there would've been a 3rd target heavily pressed and b) it wouldn't have been so competitive between these two. The shady voter jump onto Jbright only helped reinforce this idea. So now, with 1 lynch, we figured out 2 alignments of inactives. Seraph and Jbright. LunarDestiny's alignment would get revealed the next day, when pressure would be off him. Now because my narrative presented Seraph as a lynch solely off of judging the voting results, let's actually read his posts and do an analysis of why he's mafia. First of all, look at Foolishness's post on him above to see our thoughts from in the game. This will be a postgame analysis. The discrepancy in his posting activity from pregame to ingame showed that he had a role. That much is obviously surmised. So then, how do we determine between blue and red? First of all, let's look at his objectives for posting. There were two important ones: + Show Spoiler [Seraph Posts] + On February 28 2011 11:39 seRapH wrote: Ok, all caught up. LSB vs Barundar- LSB is the one who really pushed the annul lynch. That alone makes me doubt that he's mafia, regardless of how scummy the rest of his play so far might seem. Barundar, on the other hand, doesn't have the cleanest record right now. I'd be ok with lynching Barundar, since LSB has already caught one. icemac- Getting scummier, really starting to suspect him now. It doesn't help that his lynch is meeting with a lot of resistance. Especially this late in the day. Feels like someone's deliberately diverting the lynch off of him, doesn't it? Personally, I say we go for it. When there's post that triggers a swing in votes this late in the game it feels super suspicious. Also, it's the end of the day. The entire day cycle was spent with great bickering and squabbles between two parties. Everything was dandy, with two camps clearly lined up. No matter who we lynched, we'd have much more information to look at. But now people are jumping off and actively diverting the lynch. At the end of the day. For no reason other than because foolishness said so. I hate that. I respect foolishness and all as a player, but that does not mean that we should just blindly do what he tells us. This isn't a battle between a few "priority 1" players, this is isn't even a battle between "priority 1+2" players, this is a game where YOU decide who YOU think is mafia. Is anyone actually voting for people they think are really mafia? Because at this rate, we're going to lose all the progress we made today. And that's bullshit. On February 24 2011 17:07 seRapH wrote: icemac that was possibly the easiest way to dodge taking sides. The dude's probably going to get replaced or modkilled anyways. Seriously, take a stance on someone. Most of my game since my 6666th post has been going on through PMs, but I guess that was selfish of me >_> ##Vote Icemac Things to take sides on: GM vs Gryff- Cell System Annul vs LSB- XXXV Personally I doubt either of annul or LSB are scum, this is just a grudgematch. Coag and Kenpachi are playing more pro-town than usual (or maybe its just less spam?) People I'm suspicious of: Jackal- Playing a lot more passively than he did as town Icemac- Stop dodging the issues at hand Gofarman- Proponent of lynching inactives. Voting annul. A few more I'm not too sure of, will follow up on their posts tomorrow when I'm awake. Maybe. Two main aspects stand out to me. First of all, lots of words, little impact. Secondly, he refuses to take sides or have a decisive opinion. Thirdly, he puts out a lot of doubt on people and berates plans, most notably he tries to get the town to not trust Foolishness. The third part is a clear pushing of mafia objectives. The mafia does not want foolishness to be listened to given his threat and accuracy (he's obviously innocent after day 2 when he tries to take control and push LD off of heavy analysis; mafia foolishness would never do that). The first two points show that he is hiding something quite clearly and doesn't want to have to commit to anything or take fire. When you combine withholding himself + refusing to take sides + pushing blatant mafia objectives + has a role, you end up with....Mafia! To be continued tomorrow... | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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GGQ
Canada2653 Posts
On March 18 2011 20:26 Ace wrote: I fell asleep at the 3rd paragraph You're mean! I'm finding it fascinating (and humbling...) so far. | ||
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Ver
United States2186 Posts
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
Go ahead. I dare ya.  | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
People always talk about mafia tend to lurk and want to avoid being in the open. I never understood that and think it is not true. Every person have a limited amount of time spend playing mafia. For example: I have 2 hours per day. But because i am mafia, I spend half of that time (1 hour) chatting with my mafia buddies leaving 1 hour left to post shit and look pro town. I think this is the main argument why mafia tend to lurk. Not because they want to lurk, but because they don't have enough time to maintain their usual town play. Oh, my inactiveness/being busy is caused by two things. It is true that I was kind of busy lately. But the main reason why I took a sudden dive to inactive land is that YOU KILLED CHAOSER!!! CHAOSER WAS MY IRC BUDDY. I SPENT MOST OF MY TIME PLAYING MAFIA JUST SHITTING AND LAUGHING AROUND WITH HIM ON THE IRC. THEN YOU LYNCHED CHAOSER. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
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kevconsim
United States317 Posts
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
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ilovejonn
Canada2548 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
jk this analysis is great ver, just what i hoped. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
Good analysis so far. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On March 19 2011 11:33 bumatlarge wrote: I'm not the only one who ctrl+f's their name and is sad when it only says "2"? Good analysis so far. Not the only one. I didn't find my name mentioned once... ;, ( | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
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