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On March 25 2011 04:39 Jackal58 wrote:
The man just got killed by letting his role slip in a PM circle in XXXVII. Night 1 boom he's gone.
And he does it again a week later???
Sorry. I'm not buying what he's selling.
I might be wrong but on night 0 I'm going to lean towards the side that my gut reaction had. That reaction was bullshit. If that makes me scummy in your eyes I'm sure you'll get over it.
It was really only a week ago? That knowledge kind of pains me.
Your gut reaction doesn't make you scummy to me which is probably good.
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Vatican City State1650 Posts
Sorry. I've been busy with trip preparations - I have to drive ~1000 miles back and forth this weekend, and need to do a checkup on my car etc etc. Anyway - How can we trust bum when he roleclaimed so early in the game? He's a great player - I don't think any decent actual blue would take the risk of revealing his role so early. He might actually be a black, trying to draw hits and confusing us with fake checks.
I'm thinking of what happened with annul in.. I think it was salem mafia or something - where he did an early roleclaim as a godfather, and everyone believed him after a cop confirm. That was absolutely disastrous for us.
There really is no logic for us to believe bum.
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lanaia
where do you normally play mafia?
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The man just got killed by letting his role slip in a PM circle in XXXVII. Night 1 boom he's gone.
And he does it again a week later???
Sorry. I'm not buying what he's selling.
I might be wrong but on night 0 I'm going to lean towards the side that my gut reaction had. That reaction was bullshit. If that makes me scummy in your eyes I'm sure you'll get over it.
I don't know if you have a bad memory or something but bum wasn't even in the game (XXXVII) till late. He replaced ICanFlyLow like on Day 2 or Day 3. He also flipped green. I don't think anyone on my team was in a PM circle with him in that game so he didn't let his role PM slip. Go check on that game if you want but he's clearly marked dead Night 3.
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orgolove: i didnt claim, what i did in haunted was try to draw a DT check early from aztrorisk, since i knew he was DT from tells. so ofc he checks me, sees hatter, tells me in PM "hi, youre hatter, i trust you."
so i went to town and was like "OH HEY i have a pocket DT who just checked me as hatter" etc. so i only came out once i saw i had the chance to control the game AFTER being DT checked.
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On March 25 2011 04:52 annul wrote:
lanaia
where do you normally play mafia?
I've played a couple on mafiascum.net
Otherwise I play with a bot on irc.
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On March 25 2011 04:52 orgolove wrote:
Sorry. I've been busy with trip preparations - I have to drive ~1000 miles back and forth this weekend, and need to do a checkup on my car etc etc. Anyway - How can we trust bum when he roleclaimed so early in the game? He's a great player - I don't think any decent actual blue would take the risk of revealing his role so early. He might actually be a black, trying to draw hits and confusing us with fake checks.
I'm thinking of what happened with annul in.. I think it was salem mafia or something - where he did an early roleclaim as a godfather, and everyone believed him after a cop confirm. That was absolutely disastrous for us.
There really is no logic for us to believe bum.
There is logic because the difference is while in salam (the game you reference) annul claimed early and then cop confirmed him, that was 1 person confirming him. Here all the blues are in a PM circle so they can immediately say no, he's not one of us and that leads to a 1:1. Black isn't going to help red and red isn't going to help black and I doubt either one of the groups wants to get into a 1:1 situation this early in the game.
annul, you're thinking of it as 10 v 20 when really it's 6 v 4 v 20. Either side is going to be thinking of it's own interests and so red and black really have no desire to overstep their roles and try to take one for the team and fake claim and let it benefit the other team (red/black).
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all you guys saying that shit about how "Me and jackal must be a scum team" because i made a blue read on him early game are completely wrong and i can prove it.
We are both in item game
THERE ARE 2 SCUMS IN ITEM GAME BOTH ON OPPOSITE FACTION
WE COULDNT POSSIBLY BE A SCUM TEAM.
Jesus christ think before you fucking post please.
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Ok guys sorry I haven't been taking part - as you heard earlier my roomate Deconduo (who introduced me to TL Forum Mafia) explained that I was catching up on the billion posts already in night 0.
I am in college and in such may be unavailable during the day. Note also i'm in a european timezone.
Just so you know me:
- I'm TOTALLY NEW to forum mafia, remember that and if you're not gonna go easy on me at least don't judge me harshly
- I'm a regular on Epic Mafia, understand the mechanics, love the game
- I'm pretty much impervious to flames and hate getting into grudge arguments so use logic or state your case but don't bother to emotionally manipulate me, i'll just take it as scummy.
I've taken down ALOT of information from all the posts since 11:00 KST so i might split this into several posts or not… Basically the way I see it anyone's opinion can be misleading here so let's start off with facts and move onto motive later.
I'm gonna recap what I have of the elections. I'm leaving out unimportant info on people who have retracted.
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Mayoral Elections Recap: (In chronological order)
Tnkted [RETRACTED]
- Only person promising a 'free' vote (players decide n1 lynch)
GMarshal [RETRACTED]
- Reserves right to choose lynch
- Believes mafia/scum are heavily invested in getting the mayorship due to setup
Jackal [RETRACTED]
- Reserves right to choose lynch
Annul
- hasn't posted policy on d1 lynch
- poor listing of abilities
- claimed by several not to have good scumhunting
KavDragon
- hasn't posted policy on d1 lynch
- posting more about other people's campaigns then his own
GGQ
- hasn't posted policy on d1 lynch
- seems to have been forgotten about? Has posted since but reminded no one of his candidacy
BumAtLarge
- Offers to give his d1 lynch to RebirthOfLegends!!
- Claims Blue (Blue claim seems more due to logical motivation rather than a slip IMO)
RebirthOfLegend
- Reserves right to choose lynch
- Professes very strong scum hunting abilities
- Offers to stand down if there are no counter-claims to BumAtLarge alignment claim of blue
Kenpachi
- hasn't posted policy on d1 lynch
- Has mentioned his running twice but hasn't spoken of his abilities
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My analysis of the elections:
What do we need from our mayor?
The mayor lynches day 1. From many it has been made clear that as this lynch is a crapshoot it isn't terribly important who gets hit (Of course I care I just mean it doesn't carry much weight when you decide who is mayor).
For that reason the most important reason we try and stop a red/black alignment from getting the mayorship is longevity. We don't want to have to lynch his BGs to get at him. Because of this I have come to care less about the policy of d1 lynches in each campaign and more on whether or not they can scumhunt. This means I personally (and hopefully others) will worry about achieving a balance between paly experience and town telling when voting and NOT whether or not I have a say in the d1 lynch.
Outed Blue Candidate:
BumAtLarge has outed the fact that he is blue. What I don't understand is why people believe that we may end up with a 4-4 blue/black outing scenario. The way I see it a 50/50 lynch is an extremely pro-town opportunity. On that basis alone black should consider a blue cc. More to the point from towns POV the best thing to do is have a blue claim, wait for a cc and if it comes STOP THERE. We now have a 50/50 situation between 2 players and we don't need to vote either of them. I'm not going to bother explain why an uncced blue is clear so we then find that:
If a blue claims and there are no ccs he is clear.
If a blue claims and there are ccs NEITHER should be voted mayor.
Then our decision only becomes if the blue is cced do we want him as mayor. Personally I feel I would rather have a clear mayor with bad scumhunting abilities then a veteran played who is actually red/black.
I really want opinions on the above because I feel the fact I'm new might make that logic wrong. Tell me which you think is more important.
In BumAtLarges case I can see that while he doesn't have strong scum hunting skills (or so i hear) he could be clear. For me the decision is then probably made.
If a cc does turn up I would expect neither him nor his cc to be voted and instead someone else who meets the best balance on the veteran vs. townishness scale.
In fact in that situation I think the d1 lynch should probably be on the blue c.c.s.
Thats the end of my analysis rant. Next comes the voting so far...
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Kenpachi isnt an actual candidate btw. we would be better off electing the LSB_Bot
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didn't even mention my candidacy lol...
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The information I have on the votes so far:
+ = semi-certain votes for
- = semi-certain votes against
Annul: (+1,-1)
RoL says annul 'doesn't suck' at voting
Meapak says he has 0 scumhunting abilities
Kav: (+1,0)
Jackal states he will vote Kav
GGQ: (0,0)
No mentions
Chaoser: (+1,-1)
Meapak says he will vote Chaoser if he doesn't retract
CubEdin is against a Chaoser vote
Bum: (+6,-1)
RoL will vote him in exchange for exclusive rights to his lynch
iGrok is voting Bum
Tntked is voting Bum
KavDragon does not support Bum
Meapak has Bum in his top 3
CubEdin supports Bum
Brownbear supports Bum
Coagulation opposes Bum
RoL: (0,0)
Meapak has RoL in his top 3
Ken: (0,0)
No mentions
Bum is in a clear lead here.
Issues I personally have with any candidates/tactics are as follows:
I feel Bum definitely cant give away his vote. The entire point behind voting a blue is having a stronger lynch chance d1 due to being clear and knowing the other blues. Even if giving the vote away means a stronger scum hunter would use it there is no way of knowing which alignment RoL is. If this were Epic Mafia I would be seriously worried about RoL for offering this trade as it seems against town. However things in forum mafia may be a bit different.
Chaoser made an interesting point which started a debate on whether to pick our mayor from the mini-game or not. The chances of picking mafia in the mini game are 33%. The chances of picking a mafia when the mini-game is excluded is 33%. The chances of picking mafia from the entire role of players is 33%. These numbers don't do us any favors. Seeing as having a clear from the mini-game is impossible, as there are no blues, I would urge this strategy not be employed. (Someone check my maths, but i'm pretty sure i'm right)
Chaoser mentioned he would sheep town on the mayoral vote - I personally cannot support a mayor that would leave anything up to chance, even an election.
Meapak mentioned that mafia 100% knows who town is:
Jackal is a little enigmatic to me. While I feel he's been pretty protown so far, Coag's insta confirm of him has me really suspicious. tbh I'm more suspicious of Coag because only the mafia know 100% who is town.
Perhaps I'm taking his view out of context but this seems to be wrong on several levels:
#1 Mafia know who isn't mafia, not who is town
#2 Surely the third party (seemingly a second mafia) would also 'know' town.
#3 Meapak may misunderstand the tactics mafia will use in this game
Also Meapak has asserted he wishes to vote Chaoser but will vote Bum if Chaoser retracts. This implies he thinks Bum is clear (if uncced) but wishes to go for an uncertainty anyway (i.e. tunneling the mayoral vote). Surely in this situation logic dictates his vote be changed to Bum and not be dependent on whether Chaoser stands?
Misreading and misvoting - 2 attributes I don't want to see in the mayor
Lastly - and I apologize to my roomate for this ( ):
Jackal voted almost midway during night 0. I think LSB made it clear that vote didn't count but it was still made.
Deconduo offered an official and serious FOS so soon into the game…
Guys inform me if it's normal to behave that way or if in fact it's rushing it a bit...
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On March 25 2011 04:52 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +The man just got killed by letting his role slip in a PM circle in XXXVII. Night 1 boom he's gone.
And he does it again a week later???
Sorry. I'm not buying what he's selling.
I might be wrong but on night 0 I'm going to lean towards the side that my gut reaction had. That reaction was bullshit. If that makes me scummy in your eyes I'm sure you'll get over it. I don't know if you have a bad memory or something but bum wasn't even in the game (XXXVII) till late. He replaced ICanFlyLow like on Day 2 or Day 3. He also flipped green. I don't think anyone on my team was in a PM circle with him in that game so he didn't let his role PM slip. Go check on that game if you want but he's clearly marked dead Night 3.
Well damn me. I got my beneathers and bums crossed. 
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its important to note i dont oppose bum after everything about his claim flushed out and i seen no opposition or counterclaiming blues. i clearly stated he would be a good pick.
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Lol - not only as i'm writing these posts are new things coming up but as i'm POSTING THEM as well!!
Chaoser I don't know how i f****d up your candidacy cos i copy/pasted from textedit. As no edits are allowed I'll leave it as is as you get more mention later.
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Hi guys!!!! I'm back!!!!!
Time to read the entire thread :p
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this post regarding bum is most likely town pretty much says i dont oppose him.
On March 24 2011 12:57 Coagulation wrote:
nm i didnt see scumatlarge's post.
well between the two of them we got good candidates.
it just comes down to whos the better scumhunter
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Sorry Coagulation I may have misread this:
Coagulation United States. March 24 2011 13:24. Posts 4432
wait what if theres no counter claim to you bum because the blues just got a green townie PM like the rest of us?
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EPT
