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TL Mafia XXXVII - Page 4

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 24 2011 19:13 GMT
#702
This calls for a radical rethinking of our plans... lets lynch RoL!
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 24 2011 19:39 GMT
#709
Alright, lets do this then, to be honest I don't think icemac has given us enough to work with to really make a judgment on him, as the game progresses if he dosn't post more we will have to just hang him, but for now I want to give him a chance to talk. Annul i'm ambivalent about, I'm not sure if he is scum, but his lack of actual contribution makes me suspicious of him, so for now I'm going to vote Annul, I may switch my vote as more information arises

##Vote annul


come on people only a few hours left and we have to lynch someone, it may as well be someone who's death will provide us with key information
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 24 2011 21:28 GMT
#733
Thats right, I do not believe annul is scum, but there is a chance I am misreading him, my reasons for lynching him

1.) He is playing poorly, if he is town then I don't want to bring him with me into situations in which I need to be able to scumhunt without being tunneled the entire time. I am perfectly fine with people writing accusations and analysis against me, and when an excellent analysis pops up that "proves" I am scum I will be the first to praise it, despite it being wrong. My only objective this game is to get people to think for themselves rather than accept what they are told, this is the surest way to ensure town victory.
Face it, what annul is doing is not scumhunting its tunneling and accusation without solid base, if he were kind enough to actually provide a decent amount of support for his accusations then, yes I would have no issue taking him with me to the late game, and would retract my vote now

2.) I would rather not lynch a new player that has the balls to go out and post, sure he is new and learning, but I'd rather hang a vet who I know can do better and is playing intentionally poor than a new player who has a chance to learn.

I would rather *not* lynch annul, so I will propose an alternative target, a lurker who just bandwagoned, without providing a reason ICanFlyLow
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 24 2011 21:46 GMT
#737
you know what, I'm tired of bandwagons, I told myself I would play differently this game, so here goes.

I still dont think annul is scum, hence I will not contribute to hanging him, if you guys want to feel free, but I'm going to trust LD's experience with this player, heck I'm slightly pissed at annul for tunneling on me, but still I don't want to waste my vote killing a player I think is town, and while I wouldn't be happy to have annul with me at lylo, I would be even unhappier to have ICanFlyLow with me

##Unvote
##vote: ICanFlyLow
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 25 2011 01:35 GMT
#767
I'm going to ask that everyone who thinks annul is town move their votes to ICanFlyLow, no one can argue against the fact that ICanFlyLow has been lurking hardcore, and to me at least its somewhat apparent that annul is probably not scum, I've looked around and as far as I can see it is his same posting style. While it is what I see as aggressive it seems to match his style of play in other mafia games, hell he gets credit for thinking I'm scum, at least he unlike quite a few players had an idea. Also annul seems to be hinting at a blue role, if he were scum he would have claimed by now, IMO

If I am wrong and annul flips scum this is going to look terrible for me, but w/e we all have to commit to something

Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 25 2011 02:59 GMT
#800
wait, what? I was 80% sure annul was town... T.T

here let me do it for you: FoS on GMarshal for defending him

But hey on the bright side, FoS on LD as well
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 25 2011 03:15 GMT
#813
I said it would look bad, hell, I already FoSed myself, but LD also defended him, since I know I'm town I suggest you look at him as well (I'm ready and waiting for the scrutiny, but I was almost 80% sure he was town) So yeah I messed up, big time, but that dosn't make me scum.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 25 2011 03:31 GMT
#825
Alright if we are going to discuss blues we may as well discuss them with specifics.

First thing take everything I say with a grain of salt, I am a very suspicious player now

Medics: Protect LSB, Mr.Wiggles and Foolishness

DTs; check inactive players and players away from the spotlight, people like SerApH and ICanFlyLow is probably a good idea, if you want to check me that's fine but realize that I could be covered if I am scum, framed if I am town, or just a very stupid godfather, so this in no way clears me. Take all your results with a grain of salt

Mad Hatters; Place bombs on the most suspicious players (LD, me, really inactive players, etc), and people who you think are probably mafia, careful though if you are mistaken and die you take out two town players.

Vigi's; Nothing tonight

Anyone else have any thoughts?
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 25 2011 14:10 GMT
#853
I just want to point out that ICanFlyLow has yet to contribute anything at all.

Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 26 2011 03:00 GMT
#873
... someone is going after the vets, and whoever it is either had some blue claims or great guesswork, I suspect its a veteran player
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 26 2011 03:21 GMT
#884
Notice how there were 3 kills assuming a normalish setup and the fact that we killed a scum earlier this suggests that at most 1 and most likely no frames/covers were used, which means that any DT check can be somewhat trusted, not fully though due to the GF and Miller roles. Still don't claim, but know that your results are probably good, hence if you see town going for a blue or green lynch try to redirect it
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 26 2011 09:06 GMT
#891
On February 26 2011 17:37 gryffindor wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 26 2011 12:48 Jackal58 wrote:
On February 26 2011 12:46 chaoser wrote:
LISTEN TO GM'S PART ABOUT CLAIMING! DONT CLAIM!!

I just asked RoL how the KP works to try and figure out how many mafia there are and he said mafia can round up. Assuming 6 mafia like people mentioned before, 5 left, that's 1+/5x4 = 3 KP. That means they can still kill 3 and have .5KP left over to frame/cover.

100% DON'T CLAIM if you've found a townie or a vet, it's too risky, they could be GF or covered.

Unless of course you're gryffinder. Then by all means claim some thing else.

##VOTE: Gryffindor

##Vote: Jackal58

I was on the Annul wagon, a wagon on mafia. Were you?
I didn't think so.

Its called bussing, its a basic scum strategy to appear pro-town by, when the lynch of a team mate appears probable or inevitable jumping on the wagon. I shouldn't need to tell an experienced player like you this gryff, the fact that people were wrong in thinking annul was town does not make them scum, and conversely voting for him does not make you town. allow me to ask, do you still stand by your vet claim? I won't quibble about your sarcasm or lack thereof.

it looks like a OMGUS vote to me, and your reasoning is weak to say the least, as this single vote can be quite revealing but it alone in no way makes a case against someone.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 26 2011 09:07 GMT
#892
EBWOP: Ninjaed by coag!
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 26 2011 19:41 GMT
#911
Interesting list, LSB it seems like a solid system, it reminds me a little bit of Ace's Zodiac List. So we should keep our eyes out for players in Lists 1 and 2 lasting till the lategame. I think DT checks should be focused on the undecided/list 3 people as they seem to be more likely to not be framed or covered. Medics need to protect list 1.

I like this list because it thinks longterm, while it won't be terribly useful for scum hunting now, when day 5 rolls around it will be much more useful.

Thinking critically I can't really find anything really at fault on this list other than it seems like List 1 players are being given perhaps a little too much of a protective treatment, which could be a scum move to ensure they get to late game/waste medics, still it seems like a solid thought process

Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 27 2011 02:17 GMT
#927
So it seems like everyone in the town decided to be quiet, why? Silence makes me sad... I feel all lonely now... so lets stir up some action shall we?

##Vote: MaxwellE

He has yet to post anything at all, I think I made my dislike of inactivity abundantly clear earlier, so here have a vote, now post something of value!
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 27 2011 03:17 GMT
#931
Also while I'm bored (read, should be doing work) I'm going to go ahead and post my thoughts on all the accusations and FoS that have been thrown around since the day began almost 24 hours ago.

So the first real development is Coag posting a vote against cube, which is an ok move as we need to pressure the more inactive players, jackal does the same a little bit later, because it bears repeating here is Jackal's handy list of players with few posts

+ Show Spoiler +
he following need to step up their game:

Gofarman - 8 posts
astroorion - 3 posts
JBright - 4 posts
ICanFlyLow - 2 posts
ohN - 3 posts
why - 6 posts
CubEdIn - 6 posts
LastArgument - 7 posts

Fewer that 10 posts this far in is inexcusable.


note that IcanFlyLow was replaced

then I post with a little bit of thought as to what the kills mean for us, and repeate my NO CLAIM message, which chaoser and LSB repeat in the following posts, still at this point nothing exciting has happened and then we get the first real interesting post

Jackal after saying not to claim goes ahead and points a FoS at gryffindor, he dosen't provide any backing for me to comment on, so I hope he takes the time to make a post with some actual analysis other than "he claimed vet" which is actually a scummy move, but not enough on its own to make a judgment one way or the other.

Grryfindor then does an OMGUS vote against jackal using as his defense "I voted for annul" which is at best a flimsy defense, but then again the attack was flimsy too. My only concern is that gryffindor dosn't point this out an demand an explanation (the rational choice to defend himself) but rather resorts to an OMGUS, which is a poor defense most times.

Coag then points out that gryffindor is emphasizing the fact that he voted for scum way too much and that that may be a scum tell, I am inclined to agree with coagulation on that one, in fact I would really like it if jackal fleshed out his attack against gryffindor to see what kind of defense gryffindor might try to put up.

Gryffindor then goes ahead and defends himself, since I want to really analyze his defense I'm going to quote his post and go point by point

+ Show Spoiler +
I'm going to have to start linking my games here as meta...
I haven't ever bussed someone on teamliquid; it isn't how mafia is played here. If you expect people to be bussing, you are playing very poorly as town. WI'm going to have to start linking my games here as meta...
I haven't ever bussed someone on teamliquid; it isn't how mafia is played here. If you expect people to be bussing, you are playing very poorly as town. Would I really go out of my way to push the lynch of my mafia buddy? Would said mafia buddy THEN counterpush me? Who have I had interactions with that would look like my scumbuddies?

ok so here you say bussing is not how mafia is played here, which is blatantly wrong, in minimafia V, node jackal and I were on the same scum team and we bussed jackal day 1, with Node leading the analysis against him. There are other examples like the game (I don't rember the #) where LSB ran for mayor with a scummy plan and Dr.H decided to bus him, LSB survived that day by persuading RoL that he was town in PM's, but still bussing is a technique that is used on TL so that use of meta is downright wrong. Also everything besides that last question is WIFOM , as if you thought it was likely annul was going to be lynched with LSB pushing him it would be a great idea for you to get on the wagon early. As to who would you have had interactions with? annul actualy seemed to agree with most of what you said, and from a town perspective our argument about the plan may have been a good way to confirm us as town if we are both mafia. Icemac also seemed to be on your side aggressively pushing against my plan without any sold reason

IF I am lynched, this is a very laughable town

oh ok, you clearly prove your townness with that

Annul had associative tells with both GMarshal and Icemac, both of whom we should pursue lynches on, but you all are so hurt that someone is a better player than you, you can't get over the fact that OMGUS/bussing is just senselessly being thrown at me when both aren't relevant to this particular scenario. The OMGUS relatedness isn't relevant because some OMGUS is very-town, especially when the goal of it is to point out that I'm part of the reason why Annul got lynched.

ok, if you were really town your OMGUS would have looked something like "wtf voting against me with no reason jackal?" also what associative tells did i have with annul? that he pushed to lynch chaoser after FoSing me? and what I have no idea what associative tell you want to use to associate Icemac and me, still I appreciate the effort to at least do some scumhunting. and how are the terms OMGUS and bussing not relevant, they clearly are.

Apart from GMarshal or IceMac, Seraph would also be a good lynch from my perspective, due to the recent post he made sounding like goading/fake-sincerity regarding the medic/cop snipe, and considering his excuse for lurking in the same post... well, it just reads forced and overly defensive.

ok, I like that you are at least thinking, Seraph however I have a town read on, due to the fact that he has been at least moderately active in PM land, still I wouldn't mind getting more from him

GMarshal looks like Annul's buddy to me, because Annul gave him a casual FoS in a post that he failed to try make look real, followed by voting someone else. It was way past where the RVS should end, and it was a lackluster post saying "Well, i'd lynch gmarshal or ___". He listed GMarshal first, talked about him like he was suspicious, then failed to vote him, voting someone else.

ok, a decent point, wrong unfortunately, but a decent point, this at least seems like active scumhunting so kudos for that, but I think you are reading far too much into annul's aggressiveness, as IIRC he later voted for me (I dont really remember though)

Now, I see I have a few votes on me now, so unvote

I'm not convinced, you uncomfortable in the heat gryffindor?

If you're unfamiliar with me, go read Orgah mafia.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=186653
I am a Serial Killer in this game, and obviously scum. I say obviously, because my play there as scum is contrasted with how I am playing in this game. In that game, I was generally unhelpful, lurking, and inactive. This game, I am very active, and dedicated to the town teching up

alow me to point out that changing your style is not that hard, compare my current active planning to my rather more crappy posting style in XXXVI. usually quoting other games and saying "see im nothing like this" is a scum tell, as changing ones style is not that great of a challenge


thanks guys, love you all



next decon posts he calls out gryffindor on a couple of the things I mentioned + on lying, which is a good call

also in reply to "GMarshal, I feel you gotta step up. It looks like you tried to save annul near the end." I have no real defense, I did try to save annul as I thought he was town and it was LSB going for a grudge lynch, but let me say that being wrong about someone does not make me scum.

chaoser then says he likes ohN's posts although there are only 3, which is dissapointing, still a contribution by chaoser, not much to say on it

barundar then casts a FoS on LSB, I think LSB is playing pro-town and knowing LSB if he is scum he will continue to be active and slip up eventually, so I wouldn't wast a vote on him yet, although keep your eyes on him and watch out for scummy plans.

LSB then does a pretty in depth analysis of barundar, however I think LSB is wrong, although he says its not OMGUS, I get the feeling that it really is, barundar defending annul does not make him scum, and bar was convinced jackal was scum before the wagon started (we discussed it in PM) he just did not want to leave an analysis early to be buried in the discussion between Gryffindor and I, while he was away. So I think LSB's point 1 is just outright wrong. Point 2 is interesting but I would not read too much into contradictions although I feel they aren't as contradictory as LSB thinks they are.

Barundar promises a case against LSB, which I am anxious to see and analyze.

More back and forth between LSB ensues, I'm going to wait on Barundar's analysis of LSB before really discussing it

why then agrees with LSB to pressure Barundar which is ok, and then does something really good, he calls an inactive out, specifically he pegs Beneather, gj why although I still want to see you post more as you still feel lurkerish to me

LSB then makes his list post, which I fully endorse, its a great idea and I give LSB +1 karma point for it, makes him seem like town in my eyes, some debate back and forth about it but we all agree it seems like a good idea, chaoser points out possible scummyness with LSB taking a leadership position, and questioning leaders is important for outing scum so chaoser seems more townie in my eyes for it

just my general responses to things, feel free to question me/debate anything I say in here, as the point of this is to get some discussion going
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 27 2011 03:19 GMT
#932
alright since people want to pressure Astroorion and it seems like MaxwellE may be killed I'll switch over to Astroorion

##unvote
##vote Astroorion


(Also I didn't realize I wrote that much for my post...)
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 27 2011 03:43 GMT
#934
I agree I have been reading the thread, but when voting its important to give reasons so the other person can defend themselves, and people with poor memories can be reminded, you dont have to go back and go post by post but just listing a few points helps

e.g.
1.) proposed and pushed a terrible plan
2.) argued against a good plan
3.) lied
4.) set my house on fire

even if we all know what they are it gives him room to respond and makes your case look better
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 27 2011 19:59 GMT
#1002
Ok, at this point I dont believe either Barundar or LSB are town, Barundar because of his analysis and convictions, LSB because he seems to be playing pro-town, knowing LSB's general scum style however its not impossible for him to be scum but if he is he is almost guaranteed to push a scummy plan or lynch sooner rather than later, why take a huge gamble on lynching a great player who seems pro-town when he is likely to screw up as scum and get lynched later?

As I see it right now this is a case of two townies tunneling on each other, so why don't we go after the player who seems to be trying to slip under the radar?

Hi icemac, some people made arguments against you! Care to reply to them?

##Unvote
##vote icemac
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 27 2011 20:49 GMT
#1015
I looked through and saw there weren't any great analysis out on you icemac, so for your convenience I decided to write one! no need to thank me!

ok I'm only going to take the relevant posts as people seem to dislike my posts where I look at every post (as usual my commentary in bold)

+ Show Spoiler +
Seems like shit's hitting the wall pretty hard without any real leads so far. Since its too early, why not just get a semi-active who is probably smart enough to keep their heads in the game but not smart enough to post big as a mafia. I guess this is ironic coming from me seeing as how I've just got up to date & posting.

this is an interesting point considering the fact that the people in suspicion at the time were me, gryff, annul and chaoser, if icemac flips red then we should scrutinize chaoser and gryffindor (and me actually) I'm not really sure of what to make of this post one way or another, seems just like a general town post


+ Show Spoiler +
Also, I just want to say that these cell things is either big balls move by mafia or the workings of bad play.

here is a post I take issue with, not because it goes against my plan, but because it provides no reasons for it, it just labels it as bad play. I have no problem with discussion, its when there is no reasoning behind it that I start to suspect people. Also its rather aggressive play for a player who just got here (not that that's a bad thing), but it is mimicking annul's "arguments"


+ Show Spoiler +

Analysis doesn't mean shit Day 1. I don't see why you feel so compelled to pull stuff out of your ass and call it high level analysis.

and here is a damning post, anyone who argues against analysis gets an automatic scum point in my book, and the rebuff saying it was pulled out of my ass in no way actually addresses any issues he may have with the analysis itself, +2 scum points


+ Show Spoiler +

(~snip, gryffs mention of a possible link between me and annul)
I doubt mafia is this stupid.

Thats an interesting post actually, notice how this isn't constructive at all? I'm seeing a pattern here of not actually contributing and just dismissing things in general, now I know I'm town but if I were scum it could easily be a slip on annuls part, never dismiss a possible scum slip +1 scum point


+ Show Spoiler +
I'm proposing we kill 0 of annul, GMarshal, gryffindor, chaoser and play it by ear afterwards.

you were asked to clarify if you meant 1, if you did then this is a null contribution, as that was where the town was tending anyway and you failed to provide any reason why any of us was a compelling choice at all, +1 contentless posting!


+ Show Spoiler +
(~snip me calling him out on the above posts)

Alright, let's just say you are being productive, what conclusions are you actually arriving at?

its a good question but he fails to substantiate his arguments, I think I call him out on dodging my questions later


+ Show Spoiler +
(~snip, list of inactives by kita)

Where are these people?

thats not a contribution, at least put a vote on them to pressure them ,+1 meaningless posting


+ Show Spoiler +
(~snip why's arguments against icemac)

So by responding to posts, I'm up for lynch? I've said a lot: the current way we're analyzing data isn't optimal. I don't think we should be you using scant data on Day 1 such as you, yourself, are doing. The reason I'm not listing any names other than the inactives is because I have no reasoning against anyone. I don't think I'm forcing myself at all; instead, I'm making meaningful posts on how town should act on Day 1 which is lynching inactives and semi-actives trying to stay in the covers.

Ok, so lets see that actual substance of your defense, basicly it is "I dont like analysis day 1" and "I dunno who to vote for" and you make a pretty basic mistake, you say town should go for lurkers day 1, which is a mistake, town should pressure lurkers day 1 and only lynch them if there is no better alternative, becuase it is easy for mafia to move votes onto a town inactive, rather than a scum lurker, still an easy mistake to make


+ Show Spoiler +
(~snip do not claim message)

seriously

not a real contribution, but people have been doing this all game long (reinforcing the don't claim message)


+ Show Spoiler +

What I mean is that we shouldn't lynch any actives because they're at least contributing. We'll be able to see their alignment or slipups in the future via posts/ pms/ hit patterns/ lynch patterns/ etc. If it's really that important, then I say ICanFlyLow for not talking at all. First person in the list I found that wasn't talking at all.
##Vote: ICanFlyLow

so after deciding that my plan is scummy and 1 of gryffindor annul GMarshal or chaoser should be lynched you switch to an inactive? I already explained why voting for inactives to make them post is good, but after agroing on me so hard this seems like an abrupt change

+ Show Spoiler +
(~snip ON making a FoS on him)


How the heck am I red? Just because I'm smart enough to take a bipartisan approach to day 1 and not listen to over analysis and red-analysis doesn't mean I'm scum playing the middle of the road. Right now I'm pretty convinced you're either a baddie or straight up mafia.

this is an OMGUS attack without the actual vote, since ON accused him he must be scum, this is bad play from icemac


+ Show Spoiler +
Also, I'm not jumping into this Jackal58 bandwagon because I'm not bad. Lynch me if you will.

this actualy merits a townie point, refusing to jump on an easy bandwagon to take votes and suspicion off himself


+ Show Spoiler +

(~snip, Ser Aspi posts an accusation at wiggles)
I like. Also, I hate how me and annul are cast with 100% of the blame for just being active holy shit. I think Ser Aspi is got something here.

Trying to jump on an easy bandwagon or just easily persuaded? hard to tell, also you weren't taking the blame for being active, but rather for being aggressive without arguments.


+ Show Spoiler +

What do you mean by a huge dive. I changed my vote from an afk-player who just stopped going afk to some major bandwagon scum. Playing it by ear.

so you admit that you are essentially sheeping, that is terrible town play (see minimafia VII for an example of why), if you had at least said it was for reason 1,2 and 3 then it would have been but that just points to either bad play or something more sinister +.5 scum points


+ Show Spoiler +
Fair analysis. I just want to ask about the lynches. Haven't played with TL before
How significant are Darmousseh, Kitaman27, Mr. Wiggles as players? Are the known for being good players, etc. ? Also, is there any of their caliber that "should be dead" but isn't?
I'm okay with
##Vote Barundar
for now.

stop sheeping , or if you are going to at least point out which points swayed you the most , ok LSB posted a good analysis but think critically about it, I will admit you weren't the only one swayed by it, so I'll give you a pass on that one. Also good questions, I'm glad you are thinking/asking them


+ Show Spoiler +
Oh boy, if ohn is mafia and i'm town, i'm going to quote the hell out of this afterwards.

it could be a slip, but we all make mistakes, Im willing to give him a pass



Verdict: despite some mistakes and somewhat new play I don't think he is scum (last person I said that about was annul, so take it with a grain of salt), so for now I'm going to put him under sheeping town really though you need to start providing reasons for your posts.
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