Orgah Mafia - Page 50

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chaoser

United States5541 Posts

February 19 2011 22:49 GMT

#981

Now, as the GF... you know we are lynching town today... this means town 100% loses.

But just above you said:

GF can only win if:

1) we lynch SK today
2) we lynch SK tomorrow AFTER GF only kills 1 person

So yeah...looks like you tripped up on your own words

Insanious

Canada1251 Posts

February 19 2011 22:50 GMT

#982

On February 20 2011 07:41 GMarshal wrote:
yes, but you seem to be ignoring vital evidence Insanious, why's riddles, as I see it there is no reason to doubt them, which means that either you or someone who is already dead are the SK, hence by hanging you we pretty much guarantee that the SK is dead, giving town an actual chance of victory. On the off-chance why lied then GF pretty much has to only kill one person tonight to make sure he dosn't outright lose, so as I see it we are in a good spot. Naturally GF while *I* have full faith on why being honest you should really consider if its worth risking losing outright by killing two people tonight.

False. I say deconduo was a grunt. As such killing me gurantees an anti-town is dead... but might not be one that matters.

As well, I never said it wasn't good for GF to kill 1 person, just that it doesn't help town. Killing 1 or killing 2 does the same amount of damage to the town... GF would of had to only kill 1 yesterday for it to make a difference to the town.

Insanious

Canada1251 Posts

February 19 2011 22:52 GMT

#983

On February 20 2011 07:49 chaoser wrote:

Show nested quote +

But just above you said:

Show nested quote +

So yeah...looks like you tripped up on your own words

how so?

if we lynch town today (which we are) then Scenario 2 happens, were GF can win if GF only kills 1 person.

There is no slip up there. These are scenarios not "this + this happens"

GF wins if:

1) town lynches SK today

OR

2) town lynches SK tomorrow AFTER GF only kills 1 person

there is no slip up... please point one out?

Believer

Sweden212 Posts

February 19 2011 22:52 GMT

#984

Seeing as how critical the game has become, I really hope gryffindor and beefy can give their opinions soon, so we all can evaluate their thoughts on this.

I think it's quite clear how dearly town will pay in case of a wrong lynch, it's not necessary to iterate it more.

chaoser

United States5541 Posts

February 19 2011 22:55 GMT

#985

On February 20 2011 07:52 Insanious wrote:

Show nested quote +

Cause if GF (me, according to you), doesn't lynch SK today, GF will get killed by SK tonight. That's the slipup. If I was GF I would not put my neck out on the line saying a townie is the SK, I'd put my neck out on the line saying the SK is the SK, Get it?

deconduo

Ireland4122 Posts

February 19 2011 22:55 GMT

#986

On February 20 2011 07:50 Insanious wrote:

Show nested quote +

Lol

If I was a grunt, how was there 2 mafia kills last night? Fail.

gryffindor

United States524 Posts

February 19 2011 23:15 GMT

#987

Insanious is obviously mafia with the italicization mixup
vote: Insanious
I know we're in a bad spot, but this is an easy one, guys.

Insanious

Canada1251 Posts

February 19 2011 23:34 GMT

#988

meh im dead, 3 votes = half of town...

I am town btw

. I'll come back to post

I told you so

once we lose the game.

beefy187

Japan39 Posts

February 19 2011 23:46 GMT

#989

@ Chaoser
If you think i'm the GF why don't you vote for me?
Afraid of revenge of Chaotix are you :p
Why are you so afraid?

beefy187

Japan39 Posts

February 19 2011 23:54 GMT

#990

On February 20 2011 06:11 Insanious wrote:

Show nested quote +

I did not lie, I am not mafia or sk. i do not have any powers in this game. I cannot kill, I am a plain green.

sorry town, that I apparently look so scummy that you are going to throw away the game on this lynch.

Your Crazed Rabbit yes?

Repeat after me. Capitalize every word and don't change anything.

I Insanious (Crazed Rabbit) is not Mafia or Serial Killer. I am on the towns side.

If you have a red text it may be the "truth"

Insanious

Canada1251 Posts

February 19 2011 23:55 GMT

#991

I Insanious (Crazed Rabbit) is not Mafia or Serial Killer. I am on the towns side.

I have said this already, but no one believes me

chaoser

United States5541 Posts

February 20 2011 00:02 GMT

#992

On February 20 2011 08:46 beefy187 wrote:
@ Chaoser
If you think i'm the GF why don't you vote for me?
Afraid of revenge of Chaotix are you :p
Why are you so afraid?

I can not say

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 00:15 GMT

#993

On February 20 2011 09:02 chaoser wrote:

Show nested quote +

I can not say

???

chaoser

United States5541 Posts

February 20 2011 00:28 GMT

#994

On February 20 2011 09:15 SiNiquity wrote:

Show nested quote +

???

Thanks for showing up, can you weigh in on what's been going on?

And I can not say anything about the first question he asked.

Insanious

Canada1251 Posts

February 20 2011 00:29 GMT

#995

On February 20 2011 09:15 SiNiquity wrote:

Show nested quote +

???

obviously it has something to do with chaoser's red text...

for some reason, I assume it is something like:

"you cannot change your vote once cast"

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 00:32 GMT

#996

Night actions this game

(2) Night 1: Bumatlarge, Ace killed. Ace attempted to kidnap aidnai.
(3) Night 2: Brownbear, Node killed. Why killed.
(2) Night 3: Coagulation killed. Aidnai killed.
(3) Night 4: JBright, Believer killed. deconduo killed.

Day actions this game

(2) Day 1: zerroth lynched, LunarDestiny suicided.
(2) Day 2: Kitaman is killed during the day. Misder is lynched.
(5) Day 2 mod-kills: me_viet, ELITECubWarman8, SouthRawrea, Johnhughthom, Project Psycho
(2) Day 3: Mr. Wiggles killed by Reenk Roink. GGQ lynched.
(2) Day 3 mod-kills: darmousseh (roleclaimed in PMs), ilovejon (roleclaimed in PMs)
(1) Day 4: thefluffyone93 lynched.

So nights 2 and 4 were the ones with additional kills. At present it seems obvious now that there's a 3rd party killer, but I haven't seen much thought given on to how this 3rd party works. Here are the possibilities I've come up with:

The 3rd party can start killing people starting Night 2. This means that in between nights 2 and 3 a mafia grunt was killed (i.e. Day 3), and nights 3 and 4 (i.e. Day 4) a mafia grunt was killed. Thus one person from each bullet is mafia:
- Day 3: Mr. Wiggles, GGQ, darmousseh, ilovejon
- Day 4: thefluffyone93
Ppever's post after day 3 seems to hint that at least some anti-town forces have died:
On February 16 2011 22:33 pevergreen wrote:
ilovejonn has been modkilled for breaking the rules.

I was going to do a role update and reveal the number of remaining anti-town players etc, but after the breaking of rules, no.

So I find this the most likely possibility. This would also imply that thefluffyone93 was definitively mafia, and probably darmousseh (given his victory conditions appear to be red text).
The 3rd party can kill more and more people as time goes on, but can only kill every other night. So 1 on night 2 and 2 on night 4. This would mean that there's only 1 mafia on the list above, or 2 and 1 of those killed was the GF. Only not screwed if 2 killed, but in this case it'd be imperative to kill the SK else 3 kills on night 6 would obliterate the rest of the town. This seems a bit OP, so I'm leaning against it.

We're screwed possibilities (i.e. ignore these, but for completeness some other ones I thought up):

The 3rd party is only allowed to hit once every other night. This would imply either:
- ~~2 mafia died in between nights 3 and 4~~ (only thefluffyone93 died, so no).
- There are 3 mafia, 1 SK and 2 town. Either way we lose as far as I can tell, so I'm not giving this one too much credence in the spirit of optimism.
The 3rd party is allowed to hit once starting Night 2 but is immune to night hits (popular in TL setups, idk about Totalwar, can a totalwar vet clarify?). Mafia attempted to kill SK on night 3 but were unable to do so. Again this would imply 3 mafia, 1 SK, 2 town. And again, this would mean it's SK vs Mafia and thus we're screwed, so I'm not putting too much thought into this.

GMarshal

United States22154 Posts

February 20 2011 00:35 GMT

#997

@SiNiquity theres also the fact that darmousseh was atheotes and "atheotes is almost always mafia" to point that he is, but its a moot point at this point we have to assume that the town is up against 1 mafia (probably the GF) and 1 sk, and I'm almost sure we are guaranteed to have killed the SK with this lynch.