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TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 9

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 01 2011 06:21 GMT
#1523
Right, so....I would strongly recommend that people read this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=188179

Let's start relying less on clues, which we have apparently be pretty terrible at, and rely on behavioral analysis. That will always work. But please, before you do, read the post on who it should be done. I'm guilty of some of the things mentioned in there, but I'm new and I'm learning, so I'll try harder, and next time we'll see if I can pin a scum. It can't just be me though. We need our help.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 01 2011 18:06 GMT
#1541
On February 02 2011 02:59 Beneather wrote:
I think it'd be smarter to get the population for Blues since we know the number of Mafia so we just minus the #of mafia to the # of players and we'll get the population of the SK. Either was is good just a thing that I wanted to pointed out..

I have been inactive because of exams.. I will be more active now.


Bad logic, Mate. There are four allignments that can be checked: Red, Blue, Green, and Black.

We know the total, and we know the # of red. If we check the # of Blues, that leaves us with one equation,(Total = Red + Blue + Green + Black) and two unknowns. (Black, and Green) Unsolvable.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 01 2011 18:10 GMT
#1542
On February 01 2011 23:16 Eti307 wrote:
I'm sorry I don't have the time to keep up actively with this thread.
...
If you can replace me go ahead.. if not I'll still read the thread and vote


Nothing personal, but I strongly support this notion. Come back later when you have time. M

Mods, do you have anyone willing to replace?
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 01 2011 18:27 GMT
#1543
In regards to GMarshal being Mafia\SK:

No. There's behavioral analysis behind it, not even clue analysis. It's all speculation based off the "Wouldn't it be interesting if..." It's a pointless discussion that's not going to go anywhere without behavioral analysis to support it, and right now, that analysis doesn't support it.

In regards to Beneather being Mafia:

Yes. It's likely that he is mafia. Yes, I regret my hasty choice, picking him as BG sucks. Remember, I screwed my self over by not realizing that the BG choices had to be submitted BEFORE I was mayor.
No. We shouldn't lynch him yet. Lynching BG's this early is a bad idea, and I'm not saying that because I'm the mayor.

Talking about these two will only waste time for now. Let them keep posting, and let's move our attention elsewhere for now. For at least tonight, I think we should pressure Zerroth, Papapanda, and Divinek. While I think that the posting demographic isn't super likely to have mafia in it, it's going to be the hardest demographic to analyze. If anyone else has targets to put out there, please, do so.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 01 2011 19:43 GMT
#1547
Right, enough about the BG's. I think that we should give our blues some direction. This idea is coming from BC's thread on town play.

Blues, feel free to take or leave our advice. The discussion is as much for you Blues as it is for Vanilla townies. If people are going to suggest things, be specific. Call people out by name, don't generalize. It's really easy for scum to hid in the crowd of people saying "we should dt check inactives". It's much harder for them to post specific requests for DT/Medic/Vig hits, and when they do, it gives us WAY more information about mafia than general "good" advice.

I'll start:

DT's:

Beneather's alignment will be shown by who dies first, me or him. Do not waste time on him.
Papapanda comes off as very scummy to me, but this could simply be because he's new. I'd highly recommend him for a DT check. (Constantly apologizing for himself, very tentative about his ideas/opinions. Very typical of newer scum players.)

Medics:

Mafia made a play for GMarshal after I called for Medics to protect LunarDestiny. You caught this before, so keep up the work with the wifom. LunarDestiny is still a good heal target. GMarshal is also a good target, in case the mafia make a play for eliminating the census again.

Vig:

My request for a hit on Zerroth still stands. If a DT hit D3, thank you, sorry that he turned out town. Regardless of whether a DT hit him or not, the inactives felt pressure and posted more. I see no reason to stop the pressure.

Vet's:

Speak up, be active. You have the privilege of being able to speak out without worrying for your life. This will allow other blues to come out a contribute as the mafia will be avoiding Vets, and at the very least sets up some good wifom shields.


I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 01 2011 20:10 GMT
#1550
Lol, your death would be an EPIC mafia fail.

Firstly, you are a vig. Mafia avoid them like the plague. (You still absorb the hits.)
Secondly, you were almost lynched. What happened to the last guy that was almost lynched? He got lynched the next day. People are suspicious of you, regardless of how good/bad the logic is.

Why would the mafia kill you? I mean, Mafia, please, by all means stack your hits on him, I think that would be fantastic. The less deaths the better.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 01 2011 20:12 GMT
#1551
Err. ^^ directed to Jackal58's post.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 01 2011 20:17 GMT
#1552
On February 02 2011 05:05 bumatlarge wrote:
I also need this Beneather/jackal situation explained. I've gone through their posts, and feel little difference in the motives of both. Further, Ben is a BG and Jackal has claimed vet, while I find it remarkably convenient for him to have, especially when he hasn't acted like a vet this whole game. If you are going to slide jackal the inexperienced card, I don't see why ben doesn't. And we aren't going to be looking at clues so hard after the nemesis thing? Hm...


Is this directed at me, someone in particular, or the whole town? I didn't mention Jackal in my earlier post, did you mean Papapanda?

I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 02 2011 02:49 GMT
#1577
We've been played so far. Nemesis was apparently not Mafia, or SK.

Number of Mafia remains: 5.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 02 2011 04:11 GMT
#1599
Well, it's in Lunar's best interest to help the town at this point, because the mafia are doing better than town at this point. He appears to have been taking that opinion thus far, given his pro-town stance, but I'd be interested to know what his night kills have been.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 02 2011 05:08 GMT
#1623
Uh...Really guys? Look, LunarDestiny has been one of the biggest assets to the town. Beneather had looked really freaking scummy, and has clues agianst him. (If he's GF, why the hell would the mafia send him as their hitman? Bad logic). Kitaman is dead, and can't tell us anything.

Firstly, Divinek: D3 was SK in Pokemafia and he cooperated with town. Scared the crap out of us mafia at the time. So yes, SK's CAN work with the town. It's in their best interest to work with whoever is losing.

Secondly, Are we going to lynch one of the most active and actually helpful players this game?

REGARDLESS of whether he is SK or not, he CAN be an asset to the town. As such we should NOT autovote him.

That being said, I'm not yet convinced that Bum is actually a DT.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 02 2011 06:05 GMT
#1647
Ok. Here's the problem with lynching Lunar to check the Bum:

First, Logic:

On the most fundamental level, town needs to rely on Behavioral Analysis. NOT BLUES. Ver has stressed this, and more recently BC emphasized this in his recent town-play thread. (If you don't believe me, I can post quotes.)

So if we are going to check the two, we lynch the one that is less valuable, right? According to the above, Lunar is MUCH more helpful with behavioral analysis than Bum. Chances are Mafia are going to hit bum tonight. If he's right then there's a medic gone so they can stack hits to kill him (assuming two medics). In other words, if Bum is town, and not lying, then it's unlikely that he will get any more checks in.

So let's review: Bum will likely die tonight, so if he's telling the truth and we lynch him, we do the mafia a favor and they don't have to use KP on him. If Bum is lying then we lose Lunar, one of the most helpful townies thus far. Of the two, just looking at logic, we take a BIGGER risk lynching LD.

(Also, on a side note, IF LD was actually SK, the mafia would likely hit him for his pro-town posting. Thus, the mafia would know if he's SK. Thus Bum could still be mafia, even if h's right about the SK)

Now, as I have said before, Logic and statistics won't win the game. We have to look at behavioral analysis. (Sorry, I don't have time to do a full blown analysis right now, so if someone else disagrees with me, feel free to post your analysis.)
Lunar has been posting very helpful, and pro-town posts.
Bumatlarge has posted some scummy plans, then shaped up a bit and started being more helpful, but on the whole still hasn't been above suspicion.

On the whole, it's NOT a good idea to lynch LD.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 02 2011 06:13 GMT
#1649
To those who think I'm Mafia. Do you really think that I'd be that good at hiding it from so many good players this game? Am I that accomplished of a mafia player? Do some behavioral analysis of me, and look at the implications if I am scum.

People have cited the fact that we haven't lynched scum yet as a reason for me being scum. When RoL ran for mayor he stressed a decentralized leadership, and I agreed with that, and purposefully scaled back my involvement in directing lynches so that I would NOT be the one guy who always got who he wanted lynched, lynched. In general, I've not posted analysis as much as I would like, because I knew that if I did tons of analysis, no one else would.

Entrusting me with all the decisions will ruin it for the town, so I made sure that I'm not the one doing all the work.

I'm defending LD now because I don't want to see a great asset to the town go down that easily. I don't want a bandwagon forming on him that we can't get off of him.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 02 2011 06:32 GMT
#1650
On February 02 2011 15:07 Coagulation wrote:
kav what are you doing man.

are you really recommending lynching our dt over a checked sk?


Right now that's what makes logical sense to me. I'm not totally set in my thinking, explain to me why it would be better? Where is my logic wrong? People are saying that it's scummy play, but from what I've seen this would be pretty standard, right? Here: let me break down my logic:

Player A accuses Player B of being scum through DT check. This is a simple trade. 1-1. Lynch one to figure out if one is lying. Normal play, right?

Now, who do you lynch? The person who is LESS valuable to the town. (This is the same logic that they used when a DT accused Ace in mafia III)

I hope this is pretty clear to this point. Please, If you have a problem with this logic let me know. It's fairly common town play from what I understand.

Now the tricky part with this specific case is deciding who is more valuable. Lunar, or Bum.
I make the case that Lunar is the more valuable player. He has been more actively involved with the town in both clue, and behavioral analysis than Bum has been.

Now, you might say that Bum is a DT, therefore he is more helpful than LD. I disagree here, because he will VERY likely be dead tomorrow. (If he's telling the truth, we lost a medic already, so stacking hits will kill him unless this game has three Medics, and I don't think that's likely).

The mafia will try to push for my lynch, so I'm trying to be as open as I can about what I say. Please point out what is wrong with my reasoning, and don't just dismiss it because it involves lynching a potential DT.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 02 2011 16:29 GMT
#1693
On February 02 2011 23:12 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 02 2011 22:57 Eti307 wrote:
Brownbear seems to be really pushing for us to lynch LD... that's kinda suspicious to me.

If LD is indeed SK then he's a threat to mafia as well. He might decide to help town and hit the people with the most links to clues in night posts (and Brownbear can be linked to some)

Just a tought


Oh God, we did this in PYP mafia and it blew.

Look, nobody is saying that bumatlarge is not scum. He PROBABLY is. But they FED us a SK. And bum's claim can easily be verified. If he is scum we have SK + 2 scum targets. I don't see how that's a bad thing.


Town did this in Pokemafia and it was a nightmare for Mafia.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 02 2011 17:45 GMT
#1700
On February 02 2011 18:51 Divinek wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 02 2011 15:32 Kavdragon wrote:
On February 02 2011 15:07 Coagulation wrote:
kav what are you doing man.

are you really recommending lynching our dt over a checked sk?


Right now that's what makes logical sense to me. I'm not totally set in my thinking, explain to me why it would be better? Where is my logic wrong? People are saying that it's scummy play, but from what I've seen this would be pretty standard, right? Here: let me break down my logic:

Player A accuses Player B of being scum through DT check. This is a simple trade. 1-1. Lynch one to figure out if one is lying. Normal play, right?

Now, who do you lynch? The person who is LESS valuable to the town. (This is the same logic that they used when a DT accused Ace in mafia III)

I hope this is pretty clear to this point. Please, If you have a problem with this logic let me know. It's fairly common town play from what I understand.

Now the tricky part with this specific case is deciding who is more valuable. Lunar, or Bum.
I make the case that Lunar is the more valuable player. He has been more actively involved with the town in both clue, and behavioral analysis than Bum has been.

Now, you might say that Bum is a DT, therefore he is more helpful than LD. I disagree here, because he will VERY likely be dead tomorrow. (If he's telling the truth, we lost a medic already, so stacking hits will kill him unless this game has three Medics, and I don't think that's likely).

The mafia will try to push for my lynch, so I'm trying to be as open as I can about what I say. Please point out what is wrong with my reasoning, and don't just dismiss it because it involves lynching a potential DT.



mmmm i think a DT's value goes up a little bit in a non flip game. Im really confused why you're trying to defend a checked SK over a DT. Sure an sk can help town out, but at this point he has been identified, he has no more need to help town because he will surely die. Well that's not true he could some how not die if town listens to retarded suggestions like keeping him alive.

Your reasoning really has started to sway to making less sense, and it is of course entirely possible that you could be mafia. I don't care overly much to entertain the idea one way or another, but I am very convinced that lunar is actually the SK and that he needs to die. It just makes sense from many past sk's that ive seen, so pro town you couldnt possibly think they're not. Why would anyone else possibly finger him? Sure bum could be mafia, but even if bum was I still think lunar would be SK regardless because a mafia coming out like this would still be fairly sure of an SK. But I think it's much much more likely that bum really is a DT and lunar is almost certainly an SK.

If you are scum, and you do a census tonight you could simply lie to us about the SK number and then we end up lynching our DT the next day. etc etc


I explained why actually being a DT is not actually helpful to the town at this point. Mafia can, and likely will kill him before he can get another check in.

I specifically asked that my bad logic be pointed out, not generally lumped up. Be specific. Any scum can generalize and give good general advice to the town. Show me where my logic breaks down.

Also, why the sudden flurry of activity? You've been very inactive up till now. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, I hope it continues, but why now? (More importantly, why not before?)
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 02 2011 23:28 GMT
#1717
My Case for Bumatlarge v2.0
Contradictions, and Scum slips



First off: He shows a lack of opinion as to which mayoral candidate is more scummy: RoL, or I.
On January 26 2011 09:24 bumatlarge wrote:
Ok then, Stupid idea. Crossing my fingers on Kav. Mostly my fault for not being here for a bit.

On January 26 2011 09:29 bumatlarge wrote:
Considering there is a better chance of him being red, I guess I will. Though RoL should be more vocal. Alright RoL TIME TO WIN YOU TOWNIE.

Later: (After the vote)
On January 27 2011 03:08 bumatlarge wrote:
I suggest we put our coins in kavs korner. Meds should prot the BGs, as it gives us the best shot at winning for now. ill be around later to go more in depth and answer questions.

If bumatlarge thought that i was more scummy, why would he vote for me?This vote switch shows that he has no opinion about who looks scummier. This is common among mafia, as they know that people are innocent. They don't have to really think about who might be scum, so they don't form opinions about who is scummy or not.

On January 26 2011 10:32 bumatlarge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2011 09:44 TheAldo wrote:
Bum you have really started to sound awfully scummy in like the last 5 posts.


You honestly don't think one of the candidates is mafia? You are just gonna sit there and vote and not say anything about what is happening? I mean if I talked about your last 5 posts, I'd have to use your /confirm post as well. What does that say.

I suppose since Kav is going to be mayor, I'll put a lot more time into clues right now and then analysis later. Kav is lynching Original I assume, which I am not against with the good amount of clues found. RoL wants to kill amber, but I don't believe he is set on that.

This is my first clue game, so I wasn't sure how much emphasis could be placed on them. This slipped by me, but since then, I have found Vet's condeming day one clues, I caught it on a re-read. Bum has been around for a long time, so he should know, and does knows better than to rely/put emphasis day one clues.

Don't agree? See what the vets say. Bum is an experianced player, has played with these veterans many times, and has certainly heard these arguments before:

Ace
Ace
BloodyC0bbler
Ver
Ver

On January 26 2011 08:30 bumatlarge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2011 08:21 Jackal58 wrote:
On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote:
A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in.

I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts.

On a BG plan
+ Show Spoiler +
We want to use the census as long as possible because it's basically 1/2 of a coroner everyday. I've been thinking this through and I believe the best option is to splice 4 and 5.

Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.

Option 5: Mayoral preference: Mayor picks his bodyguards, they accept.
Upside: Kav/RoL are both good players, can probably select two greens.
Downside: Kav/RoL aren't infallible, scum mayor can basically screw town over with this by intentionally selecting blues (bluesniping) and making it look accidental when they die, gives all the power to the mayor, something we want to avoid.
Verdict: I don't like it, despite Kav kind of softly pushing for it. I'd vote against this plan.


We have only 1 veteran claim. We should tell him to refresh the thread to avoid multiple claims. He will be first choice. Yes, mafia can claim it, but I'm not entirely sure mafia wants to which I will get to in a minute. The next BG will be chosen by Mayor. He will make the person is believes is most likely a vanilla town. If he is scum, then we can't be sure what he will do, but a mafia BG leaves a nice SK target on his back.

So this would ultimately lead to how badly the other factions want the mayor to die. With 30 people in the game, I believe there are several set-ups.

5 mafia, 2-3SKs.
6-7 mafia, 1-2 SKs
7-8 mafia, No SKs (8 seems highly unlikely)

With a rough 25% of players being non-town, BG chosen by mayor has a good chance of being town. With more mafia then veterans, statistically mafia will be more likely to be 2nd BG. I believe SK has no real purpose in trying to kill mayor within first 3 days. As a lone-wolf, he benefits from information brought to town, and he can blend well until medics and vets start getting counted. He can't really fake why he survived a hit if a mafia about to get lynched accuses him of being an SK. Ultimately, SK wants mayor to state how many mafia, SKs, one other blue role to keep his clam safe. SK should be preoccupied with DT and mafia sniping. For this reason, I do not like censusing DTs til later on, so SKs won't feel safe enough to hit mayor.

Mafia then will take a stab at non-townie mayor very early on. Medics should take a high-priority in protecting BGs, and if both die and mayor is alive, I don't think you should take it off him.

On January 16 2011 15:03 Node wrote:

Mayor
You are the elected leader of the town. Elections will take place on day 1. When elected, you will publicly select two bodyguards to protect you for the rest of the game. While bodyguards are alive, you cannot be targeted by night hits or the roleblocker. Role checks on you will return “Mayor”.

Don't think that's an option.


What isn't? RNG mayor? There are ways, as in everyone posts a number between 1-2, and we add them up. The probability of scum landing a mayor this way is miniscule, and attempting to tamper with it will most likely get screwed. Here I'll start.

2

I cannot change it, and now d3 will be our choice until the next person posts a number. If we set a deadline, mafia can't wait til the last minute.


This is another thing that struck me as scummy, but I left alone because I figured bum might have just not realized how bad of a plan it was. That was before I knew that bum has played around 15 games of mafia. He should have known, and did know how bad a plan it was.
+ Show Spoiler [Why it's a bad plan] +

The goal is to vote someone into office that is both town alligned, and active. The process of running for mayor runs the candidates through a gauntlet of analysis, because they must submit plans, and opinions, and lots of other stuff that can be analysed. This process helps eliminate inactives, and makes it much, much harder to become mayor as scum.

However, it's still possible for an talented and active scum to make it through the process without being suspected by most. With the help of the mafia votes behind him, it's possible for him to become mayor.

RNG'ing the mayor has one very good benefit: It cannot be influenced by the mafia. Even vet's have said that it can be useful because of that. The obvious downside is that it's still quite possible to get a scum mayor, and it's also easy to get an inactive mayor. The problem was with the way that Bum set it up: the mafia could still influence the not so random RNG, eliminateing the main benefit of RNG. In addition, he set a deadline for the RNG process that was the same time that the votes were due, meaning that there would be no time at all to switch votes to the chossen person. The plan was also started with only 1.5 hrs till the deadline, and if it had gone through, would have caused a lot of confusion that would have allowed mafia to switch votes at the last second, and get away with it not being noticed.


On January 26 2011 11:00 bumatlarge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2011 10:47 Kavdragon wrote:
Right, so long story short, my computer crashed and I lost the response I put together over the past hour. Sucks, but I'm not going to hang on it.

Here's the short version from my memory:
RNG is stupid.
Bum is Scum.
BrownBear is being dumb for following Bum.

I'm considering lynching Bum, if the town agrees. Otherwise I will follow through with the ON lynch, so as not to upset people.


lol...? Do you realize how strong mayor is? Do you honestly think scum wouldn't try to have someone run? If I was in your shoes as town, RoL would be pretty fishing looking. And you aren't, which says something about you. Now I really hope you don't get mayor if this is actually how you think things through. Killing the only person who says you might be red is not the way to go.

If you kill me, I can guarantee you are red. If you are town, please start thinking about where I am coming from with this. Roughly 24 hours ago, I thought there were 4 candidates. It would be pointless to bring it up. Now there have been two for nearly all of the vote process, I am a little worried. I thought maybe I could get an extension on the time to give this a little more thought and buy that last guy some time. The RNG plan isn't too great with only a few hours left and it was mostly just a thought in response to the situation, but maybe with 12 more hours we could get another candidate, and give people more of a choice.

On January 26 2011 13:50 bumatlarge wrote:
I knew I would have to extend the time if it was to hold any water, so if you legitimately think I was trying to sway it away from you in that time, I don't know what to say.

Admits that the plan was a bad idea, but says that it it might have worked with a time extension. He didn't ask for a time extension when he brought the plan forward, and didn't ask for it till nearly the end of the day. Why not?

On January 27 2011 10:00 bumatlarge wrote:
But he is right, during that period of time of the RNG debacle, I didn't read into either of them, which is probably the scummiest thing I did. We shouldn't be lynching based on pure information of who did what, but mostly of who is saying what, and how they correspond to clues.

Even he agrees that his play durring that time was scummy. Scummy play from a veteran mafia player? He should know better. He does know better.

On January 27 2011 14:15 bumatlarge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2011 13:26 kitaman27 wrote:
@bum, I question the timing of your analysis. With exception of the clues, all that information was available pre-election. Yet until now, you have insisted kavdragon was the more scummy of the two. Why wait until now to jump on your target?

-Your good friend kita


I wanted to post it in conjunction with any clues I could connect to RoL, which people started to find before I even started the analysis. I did not make the connection before tonight, but putting that analysis together really gave me a solid lead on an already stated notion of mine. I even put my vote on RoL, so I wasn't planning this. I want to see RoL's response before I put my vote anywhere, and we have 48 hours, so I will give another tomorrow on Kav, and I forsee good things in his future. You should try this analysis stuff, it's pretty enlightening.
-Kita's good friend, Bum

This analysis never came.
The only anlyses he has done thus far are on RoL (deemed scum), Nemesis and even here he contradicts himself:
On January 28 2011 03:34 bumatlarge wrote:
Nemesis

Summary
ANALYSIS
Lurking player who poses a lot of questions and obviously has an opinion about things but doesn't go into much detail about why he has them.
INFORMATION
Did not like the candidates. Eventually picked RoL over Kav. I do not believe Nemesis and RoL are both red, but it is very possible. No other info on him.
CLUES
First day clues I found feel very weak, and I would dismiss them initially. Second day clues LD found are much stronger, and can give the first clues more solid ground to base on.

I believe Nemesis is an SK. It would still make sense if he was mafia.

On January 29 2011 14:03 bumatlarge wrote:
By the way nemesis, my analysis of you was specifically saying you were SK and not mafia. I dont hope too hard with clues, and my analysis may be off, as you cant pin SK early without more information.


but i am fairly certain nemesis is not mafia. HE IS AN SK or town.


He says that Nemesis is an SK, or Mafia in the analysis, but a page or two later, he is "Fairly certain that Nemesis is not Mafia". That's not a quick turn around, that's a contradiction.


On January 29 2011 02:54 bumatlarge wrote:
let me make this clear

profiling>analysis>clues in terms of where I am FoSing RoL. Not in general what is stronger. but for RoL in this situation. The profile is for my belief that mafia will take a stab at running for mayor everytime. This isn't based on the metagame or anything, its strictly that this set-up makes this obvious. The analysis comes next for the reason RoL is apathetic. As if he needs to run. I think if he was town with the same mediocre drive, we would not have run. (dont get me wrong. we needed candidates but we are assuming candidates would provide above average activity). Clues are last. I think they are much weaker then what has been found on other people. But these clues are right. becuase RoL is red. Ive looked for other connections and this is all I found. The clues arent confirming the profile, the profile iconfirms the clues.

I have no comment on RoLs comparison of BB and myself.
BB sees it as analysis>clues>profile, if i am not mistaken. I think we all know BB is prone to give people a chance

nem is a much weaker, cles could be off, and he jst may be among the hordes of lurking townies. Maybe we have a lot blues. I think its likely given how mafia/sk favored this setup is.


This post is MONEY.
He has put the emphasis of his work on clues up to, and past this point. Bum stated several times that he would go to work on clues, and sometimes follow it up with analysis. He CLEARLY puts the emphasis on CLUES. But here he's stating that he believes that "CLUES ARE LAST" in order of importance! He also states that clues don't lead to the profile, profiles lead to the clues. Sound familiar? That's because RoL said the exacte opposite!
On January 28 2011 17:46 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
A townie will try to link clues to players and a mafia will try to link players to clues.

Cool story bro.

Conclusion:
Bumatlarge is a Scum at large, and is fake claiming DT to screw the town over.

This is my analysis of Bum the Scum, without taking the DT claim into account. This post got too long, so I will post my analysis of his DT claim next. Believe me, it doesn't get any better.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 03 2011 00:30 GMT
#1720
The second half of my analysis, as promised:

+ Show Spoiler [A few edits to the first half:] +
A few minor edits and clarifications that I missed on my read throughs:
On January 26 2011 11:00 bumatlarge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2011 10:47 Kavdragon wrote:
Right, so long story short, my computer crashed and I lost the response I put together over the past hour. Sucks, but I'm not going to hang on it.

Here's the short version from my memory:
RNG is stupid.
Bum is Scum.
BrownBear is being dumb for following Bum.

I'm considering lynching Bum, if the town agrees. Otherwise I will follow through with the ON lynch, so as not to upset people.


lol...? Do you realize how strong mayor is? Do you honestly think scum wouldn't try to have someone run? If I was in your shoes as town, RoL would be pretty fishing looking. And you aren't, which says something about you. Now I really hope you don't get mayor if this is actually how you think things through. Killing the only person who says you might be red is not the way to go.

If you kill me, I can guarantee you are red. If you are town, please start thinking about where I am coming from with this. Roughly 24 hours ago, I thought there were 4 candidates. It would be pointless to bring it up. Now there have been two for nearly all of the vote process, I am a little worried. I thought maybe I could get an extension on the time to give this a little more thought and buy that last guy some time. The RNG plan isn't too great with only a few hours left and it was mostly just a thought in response to the situation, but maybe with 12 more hours we could get another candidate, and give people more of a choice.

I was originally using this to show bad logic, but meant to take it out becaues it's a bad example, and was probably just an emotion based mistake.

Within my spoiler on why Bum's plan was bad, I stated that he started it with only 1.5 hours to go. That was a mistake on my part, there were actaully more like 3 hours to go, but doesn't change any of my analysis of the situation.




On February 02 2011 12:08 bumatlarge wrote:
Well, before things get out of hand, hold this open can of worms for me.

I am a detective

Night 1: kitaman27 is Medic
Night 2: Beneather is Vanilla Town
Night 3: LunarDestiny is [black]Serial Killer[/black]


According to this, he KNEW that Benneather was town on day two. So i went back an checked his posts. Yes, he defends Beneather lightly by compareing him to Jackal, but really he's just dragging Beneather into the spotlight at that point. Why draw attention to him if he's clean, and we arn't considering his lynch for the time being? Then he posts this:

On February 01 2011 03:01 bumatlarge wrote:
:X Thats pretty ballsy. I think if both BGs were scum and mayor was not... wouldnt he be dead already? Well perhaps it might be better to wait for one to die... Still using a vig on the chance TWO people might be scum is a little risky. Better off lynching the more incriminated one, and seeing what he flips.


So you suggested that we lynch someone who you knew to be town? No veteran player would do something like that. Hell, most new players would know not to do that.

This made me look at the possible reasons for a mafia claiming this:
Claiming that Kita is Medic: No real reason other than he's dead, and can't be checked.
Beneather as Townie: This potentially clears the name of the most suspected scum.
LD as SK: This makes the most sense as Mafia, and this is one of the first things that made me question Bum. The one things that has stuck with me out of all the advice I've read from the pros, is that good scum tells are the things that make sense from a mafia perspective, but not from a town perspective.
Beneather wasn't going to be lynched, Kita was dead, so the only reason to claim at this point is to call out LD: If LD is SK, he wants to appear as pro-town, and he wants to kill people who are on the winning side. In this case, the Mafia are winning, so he would want to kill them. As long as his cover isn't blown, this is the logical course of action. Once the cover has been blown, he has much less reason to help the town. (It's possible for him to win, but extremely unlikely, so who knows how he might act? ) So why would an experianced townie, someone who must have realized this, call him out? this could only halt or hurt his pro-town, helpful play. In short, it DOESN"T MAKE SENSE FOR A TOWNIE TO DO THIS.

If you were mafia, the town is looking pretty screwed, and the SK will have no choice but to start helping the town if they weren't before. So revealing Lunar as SK makes sense. People say that mafia can't know because all hits are accounted for. This isn't true.
The town asked the vig to hit D3, and D3 died that night. We assumed it was the mafia, but there was no logical reason for them to hit D3, it would be much better to hit the vocal persons in the town: Lunar and Me. So they hit lunar, and GMarshal that night. Lunar didn't need to claim the hit, because a vig covered for him. Think about it, why would the mafia hit D3? Yeah, he had a list, but he wasn't a big voice in the town, and his death only drew attention to that list. It makes no sense for the mafia to hit D3. It makes perfect sense for a Vig to hit D3. Conclusion, we have our missing hit, and the mafia know who the SK is.

It has already been pointed out that he reported Beneather as Vanilla Townie. Why would you translate Townie Bodyguard in to Vanilla Townie? Slip up? It seems odd at the least.

If necessary I can back this up with Blue Based information, but I'd rather not give out any information about blues that I don't need to. I will say that I'm in the Mason circle though.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 03 2011 02:03 GMT
#1726
No. I do not have any evidance to show that LD is not SK. Quite honestly when I build my arguement against Bum, I realized that there's almost no chance that he's not SK. Regardless of Bum's alignment.

I'm also going to say that I'm not convinced that we should lynch Bum today. There are good arguments out there for lowering KP, so if the town needs to lower it, then they can lynch the Lunar. I would be against this if he's willing to cooperate.

It makes more sense for mafia to make this high risk fake dt claim to kill a SK than an active townie. So while the possibility is there, it's not a very big one.

So to reiterate: Bum is Scum, LD is probably SK. I'm not decided on which we should lynch. I haven't done the math yet, but if the town needs a few more days, then lynch LD. Otherwise, this game is about killing scum, not SK's.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 03 2011 04:37 GMT
#1730
On February 03 2011 12:40 Barundar wrote:
Interested in hearing from lunar now. I guess kav's insistence on a non claiming vig is explained now. That might just have tricked both me and the mafia.

Kav obviously you and the mason group will have a whole lot of information more than the rest of the town, and while im fine with you not sharing anything, i want you to not turn this into a mason group deciding and a town following like sheeps. Hence i would like the discussion of what to do for the lynches to continue in the thread.

The best choice of action is in my opinion to kill off lunar tonight to reduce kp. The only alternative would be to lynch a mafia now and give lunar orders on who to kill tonight. But this would require us to hear from lunar, and be certain of 2 mafia. Bum and beneather or what? Got a third suspect?

Opinions from people?


Firstly, I have to be honest: The evidence I have is not irrefutable. It only supports my findings. I say this so that when that information is revealed, (if it's revealed), you don't feel betrayed by me and the others in the circle.

I absolutely agree with not letting the decision making process be left up to the circle. We are not infallible, and we cannot be absolutely sure about each other (other than the original mason). I tried to build my arguments off of public information to the best of my ability, and hopefully people can see that Bum is indeed Mafia. I see no reason to not include the town in any decisions, so I will keep the discussion out here.

I agree with you that LD should be lynched tonight. Lowering KP will be good. It's important to note though, that if he is indeed SK, then this in NO WAY clears Bumatlarge.

However, there's more than meets the eye with the "Should we lynch LD" debate. I've recently started looking into Insane Mafia, and LD was a third party in a position much like this, where the town was very far behind. His response was to kill mafia. This should have been pointed out by those who played in that game. FoS on those who let that sit, as it's important history that should have been mentioned. CubEdIn, you especially should have let us know about this instead of telling us that the SK would turn on Bum. You brought up PYP, why not Insane?

There's no telling if he will do the same thing, as player's styles vary, and it was insane, so I'm still of the opinion that we should lynch him. But Insane should have been brought up.


I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
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